Seven Mounties hit 30 home runs last year. Gary Carter hit 57 from behind the plate, Larry Walker hit 54, Álex Rodríguez hit 46 as a 22-year-old shortstop, and , just for grins, Tim Raines stole 115 bases. And, Ottawa finished 76-86, 4th in the Effa Manley Division, 23 games out.

The pitching is where it all went. The staff gave up 6.35 runs a game — 20th out of 20, in a league that averaged 5.38 — and exactly 2 Mounties who threw 20 innings finished under a 5.00 ERA. That would be Bill Smith and BJ Ryan. Twenty-five different men took the ball.

Here’s the complication: nobody in Ottawa knows how bad that staff actually was. The Mounties spent 2001 in the friendliest hitting environment in history, a bandbox of a park that saw ball after ball land in (and beyond) the bleachers.

The net result: Walker’s .998 OPS were worth 1.3 WAR; Rodríguez’s 46 came attached to a 252 average and 1.2 WAR. The counting stats were enormous; the value mostly wasn’t. And whatever that yard was doing to the hitters, it was doing something inverse to the ERAs too — Ottawa just can’t quantify how much.

Hilltop Park is a different building this year: bigger, deeper in the gaps, with homers harder to come by from both sides. It will cost this lineup a pile of home runs, and they’ve never been happier.

▌ 2001 Revisited

Last spring we set the expectation at to not suck, which was either the most honest line we’ve ever printed or the laziest. Ottawa cleared it: 69-85 became 76-86.

The best case wanted Bob Moose, Bob Brown and Roy Halladay back healthy alongside Old Hoss Radbourn, and the young surrounding talent to sort itself out. Halladay held up his end — 195 innings, 15-9, and a 1.26 WHIP that describes his year far better than his 5.17 ERA. However, Moose is still hurt, and Brown is in the minors. Radbourn threw 202 innings of 5.89 ball while surrendering 2.19 homers per 9, which makes him either a near-ace in a launching pad or an innings eater — either way, there’s value there.

The worst case was that the pitching stayed among the worst in the league and none of the potential in Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr or Rodríguez ever surfaced. That landed at about half strength. The pitching wasn’t among the worst — it was the worst. But Rodríguez hit his 46, and Griffey went to Portland in March for Adrián Beltré and a package, which also handed center field to Carlos Beltrán, who promptly went 42-for-45 in steals to complement a deeply respectable .865 OPS.

Johnson is the one who … um … sucked. He threw 100 innings with an 8.16 ERA. His arm is beyond live, but until he can throw strikes, it won’t really matter. Ottawa is determined to give him one more chance — we’ll see how it goes.

One question did get a clean answer. Who is the bullpen? turned out to be Tom Henke, BJ Ryan and Billy Koch, and it went from the roster’s disaster to a relative strength.

▌ Key Changes

In: Nip Winters (FA)

Out: —

Opening Day Rookies: Billy Jurges; Wee Willie Keeler; Billy Koch; Dupee Shaw; Nip Winters

▌ Best Case for 2002

The new park is kind to the arms. Halladay’s ERA falls to meet his peripherals, Smith’s 3.77 across 124 innings turns out to be exactly what it looked like, and most of Radbourn’s home run problem stays behind in the old yard. Johnny Podgajny holds the back end. Max Scherzer, who has climbed from 50th on the prospect board to 6th, arrives and is what the ranking says.

And the offense survives the move. This is the league’s most efficient running team, and a big park with deep gaps is built for that. Carter does it again. Rodríguez and Beltrán are 23 and 25 and continue to improve. Roberto Alomar, the organizational MVP and Heart & Soul winner, continues to be the best second baseman in baseball.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The park changes and the ERAs don’t, which is the answer nobody in Ottawa wants, because it would mean the yard was never the problem.

Walker — dinged 4 separate times last season — misses another 60 games. Rick Monday‘s 272/364/604 turns out to have been mostly architecture, and a 30-homer DH with nowhere to play becomes a 16-homer DH with nowhere to play. Rusty Staub and Beltré stay below average at the corners. A lineup that scored all those runs while getting nothing from either of them scores a good deal fewer now that the fences have moved.

The other thing that could get found out is the handedness. Walker, Monday, Wee Willie Keeler, John Olerud and Staub all hit left-handed, and there is no real right-handed bat on the roster to break the pattern up.

▌ Key Questions

• Is the staff any good? Halladay’s WHIP and Radbourn’s 8.2 strikeouts per 9 say the top of the rotation is fine. The 25 arms used last year say the depth is not.
• Big Unit or Broken Unit? Two years in we have an ERA over 8, a strikeout rate that would look good on an ace, and a spring in which he punched out 16.8 per 9. Other clubs have asked; Ottawa has said no every time. The patience is thinner than it ever has been.
• Where do the extra bats play? Monday refused to stop hitting, forcing his way into a job that didn’t exist: Beltrán has CF, Walker and Raines have the corners, and Monday is now claiming DH. Olerud, Staub, Bob Watson and John Mayberry are stacked up behind him.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

Carter hit 57 home runs, posted a 1.062 OPS and led the club in WAR at 22 — the same age as Emil Gross, the prospect backing him up. Shortstop, meanwhile, falls off a cliff the moment Rodríguez wants a day: Billy Jurges is here as a glove and nothing else.

▌ Talent Ratings

▌ Best In The Minors

Others: P Gary Peters, P Mark Eichhorn, IF John Mayberry, IF Joey Cora.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dupee Shaw (3), Wee Willie Keeler (8).

A year ago this list ran 9 deep and was mostly arms. Scherzer is the one who went the right way, from 50th to 6th. The rest went sideways: Al Orth, ranked 4th in all of baseball last spring, is at Triple-A Montréal; Dan Haren, then 30th, spent last season at A-ball and finished at −1.0 WAR. Jim McCormick is new to the list and Ryon Healy is the only position player on it.

▌ Superlatives

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.