Progress. Finishing over .500 with some clarity on long-term talent would be a success for next year.

Best Case

The roster stabilizes, and a handful of talent establishes itself as the core of future years. Napolean Lajoie and Honus Wagner settle in at 2B and SS respectively, and the OF talent clarifies. And, anyone reliable steps forward on the mound. Anyone.

Worst Case

Nothing settles, nobody figures it out, and the pitching continues to be miserable.

Key Questions

• Who pitches?
• For a team without top end talent, there are a surprising number of logjams (Davey Johnson and Lajoie and even the ageless Jeff Kent at 2B; Rick Reichardt and Willie Stargell at LF; Roberto Clemente, Andy Van Slyke, and Owen “Don’t Call Me Chief” Wilson in RF).

Trade Bait

Will the team hit it stride in time for Stargell to contribute? If not, he could be an attractive piece for a competitive team.

Roster Evaluation

So. Much. Talent. So little production. Even with that, though, the presence of anything approaching average pitching makes the Grays a .500 team.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

Hope for the Grays persists, largely in how dense and deep their system is. 16 prospects in the top 200 bodes well for their future.

Up to nine spots on the mound are up for grabs, including 3 rotation slots. Positional depth needs to be resolved in the lineup. Second round draft pick Judy Johnson will be given every shot to seize the 3B job.

Injuries

Daniel Hudson has missed most of camp so far, but might be back to show enough to make the opening day roster.

First Cuts

With 28 pitchers starting off in camp, Homestead clearly had a lot of work to do, with many decisions destined to be made on very limited data. Here’s who didn’t make the cut after the first week of Spring Training: starters Pink Hawley, Clayton Kershaw, John Candelaria, and Hal Carlson and relievers Mychal Givens, Ed Seward, and Ricardo Rincón.

With that many arms still in camp, the Grays only moved one C, Tim Thompson, out of camp, along with 3B’s Freddie Lindstrom and Brock Holt. Judy Johnson is hitless so far, but has impressed the coaching staff enough to stick around a little more.

Impressive starts from Rey Sáncehz and Jack Wilson at SS have forced Dick Groat out of camp, while Rennie Stennett remains, largely on the bases of his performances towards the end of last season. Jeff Kent has also been impressive, although Davey Johnson remains the presumptive starter at 2B.

Paul Waner is tearing the cover off the ball, but his brother Lloyd is hitless, meanings the siblings will be separated with Llyod heading back to the minors, along with CF Darren Lewis. That’s left a crowded OF still pretty clogged: Ralph Kiner has impressed with his power, Max Carey with his speed, and Goose Goslin is barely holding onto a spot. Of those three plus the remaining Waner, there looks to be–at most–a single roster spot available.

Second Cuts

Only 4 pitchers–Gary Lucas, Gary Nash, Ray Brown, and Bartolo Colón–have ERA’s over 2. Of those, Brown and Colón will be given some more time, but both Nash and Lucas were shipped off to the minors. That still leaves a ton of arms in camp, so something will have to give over the next week.

C Tim Thompson was shipped out. Rick Ferrell probably should be, but his defense and his WBL experience keeps him around for now.

18 year old Judy Johnson turned some heads with his defense, but needs some time in the minors. The Grays recalled Pedro Feliz for depth at 3B.

Goose Goslin and Max Carey were also sent down, although Carey was recalled a few days later, just to provide another glove in CF.

The Grays are in an interesting spot: a host of players who were assumed to not have much chance to make the team are performing fantastically, led by Ps Doug Drabek and Cliff Lee and position players Ed Kranepool, Paul Waner, Jeff Kent, Rey Sánchez, Chris Sabo, Cam Carreón, and Jack Wilson. This has created some unanticipated competition, keeping camp crowded but also making the next week quite crucial.

Third Cuts

Homestead continues to retool their pitching staff, with Bartolo Colón‘s poor Spring sending him to the minors along with Arodys Vizcaíno and Ping Gardner. Other than Francisco Liriano as their opening day starter and Josh Lindblom as their closer, though, nothing on the staff is settled.

The backup C slot continues to be challenging: Del Crandall has been spectacular, but doesn’t offer much defensively. Cam Carreón was demoted, but Peaches Graham and Rick Ferrell remain in the mix with Crnadall behind Josh Gibson.

Pedro Feliz, Max Carey, and Ralph Kiner were all sent down as well. That still leaves 1B and the OF overcrowded, and the Grays’ obsession with Rennie Stennett needs to probably come to an end. Owen Wilson and Davey Johnson–both essentially guaranteed roster spots due to their performance last year–are struggling mightily while Ed Kranepool, Rey Sánchez, and Jeff Kent are all tearing the cover off the ball.

Final Cuts

Needing to thin out the competition for the backup C role, Peaches Graham is the first to head down to the minors, followed by Rennie Stennett and Jack Wilson as the Grays tried to figure out their infield.

Cliff Lee‘s demotion to AAA was Homestead’s first step towards clarifying their staff for opening day. But that was as far as they got in the drive to cut to 30, as Del Crandall‘s Spring performance sent Rick Ferrell down, and two players with excellent Springs–Paul Waner and Ed Kranepool–were also sent down to receive steady ABs at AAA.

Babe Adams and the impressive teenager Catfish Hunter were both sent to the minors along with Jeff Kent, who had an excellent Spring but at 37 is not part of the Grays’ plans.

Earl Hamilton was the final cut from the pitching staff, leaving the Grays with a nasty set of choices. In the end, it came down to prized prospect Napolean Lajoie, incumbent 2B Davey Johnson, of OF sub extraordinaire Owen Wilson. The Grays, in a move met with much skepticism, decided to hand the 2B position to Lajoie, sending Johnson to AAA.

Almost nothing has gone right by the three rivers: Homestead wasn’t expected to compete, but they weren’t supposed to be this bad.

What’s Gone Right

Superjew. What do you want, it was the 70s. Mike Epstein has an OPS in the mid .900s, and has easily been the Grays’ best offensive player.

The Kids. Josh Gibson (19), Andrew McCutcheon (22), and Rick Reichardt (23) have all been good, and Gibson especially looks to be a keeper.

Clemente’s Heating Up. Roberto Clemente has raised his OPS about 120 points in the last month.

What’s Gone Wrong

The Pitching: All Of It. Nothing has gone right on the mound for the Grays. It’s been a total disaster, from the starters to an unreliable bullpen and everything in between.

Stargell, Sort Of. Pops Stargell leads the team in homeruns with 13, but has struck out 113 times (!) with an OPS barely over .700. For a player expected to be the main power threat in the lineup, it’s just not enough.

The Pitching: No Help Coming. The failure of various short-term tryouts (Cliff Lee with an ERA approaching 9.00; Frank Linzy over 7.00; each with over 20 innings along with a handful of others even worse in fewer innings) has been exasperating. It’s left the Grays constantly turning to Carlos Zambrano and his 6.50+ ERA.

Key Storylines

Can anything be salvaged of the season?

Trading Outlook

SELLING.

Oh dear god, please, let us get some talent in these doors. The problem is there aren’t any obvious targets. The Grays are carrying a lot of veterans, but none of them are terribly attractive. Maybe minor leaguer Kevin Young? IF Phil Garner? C Peaches Graham? Even the iconic veteran Stargell could go.

This is just an exceptionally young organization, and may require patience.

AAA Shuttle

Chief Wilson and Phil Garner have been solid.

Midseason Changes

Billy Pierce has done enough at AAA to get another shot at the rotation.

Awards

All Stars: Mike Epstein (1B); Josh Gibson (C).

Offensive MVP: Mike Epstein (1B)
Pitching MVP: Vean Gregg (SP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: Louisville Redbirds

Next to the Show: Andy Van Slyke , Kevin Young, Paul Waner, Max Carey (29).

Prospects: OFs Andy Van Slyke & Paul Waner (both 23).

Projects: Ps Cliff Lee (28), Bartolo Colón (24), Babe Adams (27), Bob Friend (27), Mychal Givens (25), 1B Kevin Young (30).

Suspects: Bill Madlock (34), Daryle Ward (32), Miguel Tejada (39), Jeff Cirillo (34), P Rip Sewell (42), 3B Pedro Feliz (29).

AA: Syracuse Sky Chiefs

Prospects: 1B Tim Harkness (23), P Chris Zachary (20).

Projects: OF José Guillén (23), OF Lloyd Waner (22), P Catfish Hunter (19), P Fred Beene (25), SS Jack Wilson (25).

Suspects: C George Gibson (24), P Bob Malloy (26), OF Cliff Heathcoate (31).

Final Roster

SP: Corey Kluber, Carlos Zambrano, Vean Gregg, Francisco Liriano, Ray Brown.
RP: Bill Fischer & Hal Carlson; Daniel Hudzon & Frank Linzy; Michael Jackson & Kent Tekulve; Josh Lindblom.

C: Josh Gibson; Peaches Graham.
1B: Mike Epstein; Honus Wagner
2B: Davey Johnson; Jeff Kent
3B: Pedro Feliz
SS: Arky Vaughan
LF: Rick Reichardt
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Roberto Clemente; Tom Brown
DH: Willie Stargell

Notes

Ray Brown recovered from injury to beat out Hal Carlson for the final rotation spot … Josh Lindblom‘s hold on the closer role is fairly tenuous … John Candelaria was the final cut on the pitching staff … Paul Waner came back from injury to hit decently, but with near-zero power, sending the 22 year old to AAA … the final cut for Homestead is a bit odd, as Khalil Greene goes back to AAA, leaving the Grays without a SS behind Arky Vaughan. The plan is to give Honus Wagner time as a reserve SS, but that’s quite a risk to take on the 24 year old.

36 year old reserve 2B Jeff Kent is the oldest player on the opening day roster, with 20 year old C Josh Gibson the youngest.

OF Paul Waner and P Babe Adams are the most likely to receive a call from AAA, with Phil Garner‘s versatility in the mix as well. Down at AA, three teenagers–pitchers Earl Hamilton and Catfish Hunter and 3B Freddie Lindstrom are held in high regard, while Andy Van Slyke looks impressive as well.