There is growing optimism in Memphis, even though it is, based on last year’s overall performance, totally unwarranted. But a strong end to the season, landing the best FA arm on the market in Shane Bieber, and a potentially high-impact draft class leaves the Red Sox with dreams of the postseason in their heads.

Best Case

Bieber joins Stubby Overmire, Dean Chance, and Bill Doak to form a solid rotation with the bullpen solidifying behind Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon while the trio of Mookie Betts, Manny Ramírez, and Sammy Sosa all reach their potential. Dobie Moore unseating Vern Stephens at SS would help, too.

Worst Case

Overmire’s finishing the year as runner-up in the ERA race proves a mirage, and the pitching remains too large of an obstacle for the offense to overcome, especially when Betts and Ramírez remain tantalizingly mediocre.

Key Questions

• Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen?
• Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens?
• Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up.

Trade Bait

There is, potentially, OF and SS talent to spare, making the Red Sox one of the few teams potentially active on the Spring Training trading block.

Roster Evaluation

There is so much upside here. But the mix of poor historical performance and a whopping nine unknown players make it pretty much a crapshoot.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

A lot of talent, but it’s unclear how much of it can make a WBL impact. We’ll find out a lot this year, as Moore, Bieber, and Miller are all breaking camp with the Red Sox.

Also, WTF? The Red Sox let Chino Smith go for some reason, seeing him immediately snapped up by Baltimore.

Half the staff is unknown, and while the OF is far too crowded, both C and the IF are still to be settled.

First round pick Carl Yastrzemski and fourth round pick Bill Lee have an outside shot at making the squad, although Yastrzemski is thoroughly blocked at both LF and 1B.

First Cuts

Not a lot clarified on the mound. Mike Witt and Turk Farrell were sent down, with Eddie Cicotte‘s struggles moving him close to the edge as well. The rest remains complicated: Len Barker and Sadie McMahon have pitched better than their numbers would indicate, while prize FA acquistion Shane Bieber, Jon Lester, and David Bush are struggling a bit.

C Charlie Bennett was sent down, and only Kurt Suzuki‘s arm prevented him from joining Bennett in the minors. Joe Cunningham and David Ortiz have torn the cover off the ball, maintaining quite a crowd at 1B where only George Scott heads off to minor league camp.

The Red Sox had hoped that DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia would provide some competition at 2B, instead each were sent down after woeful early performances, along with SS Francisco Lindor.

And that brings us to Carl Yastrzemski, who has simply exploded onto the scene. It’s not clear where the 20 year old could fit in Memphis’ lineup, but if he keeps hitting like this, they’ll find a spot for him. Eddie Rosario, Tom Brown, and Lefty O’Doul were optioned to the minors.

These moves leave Memphis still needing to do a lot of work, primarily on the mound and in the outfield, positions that are crowded enough the Red Sox could be challenged in finding enough opportunities for the talent to be accurately evaluated.

Second Cuts

Some of Memphis’ best performers on the mound from last season (Heath Bell, Len Barker, and Bill Doak and, in a slightly lesser key, Tim Wakefield) have struggled mightily this Spring, but will be given some more time to work out the kinks. Tommy de la Cruz, Eddie Cicotte, Bill Hogg, and Sadie McMahon weren’t so lucky, with all four being sent to the minors.

Kurt Suzuki‘s defense again keeps him in camp, at least temporarily.

The IF remains a mess: Iván De Jesús, Wade Boggs and Bill White are all struggling and players considered long shots coming into camp–David Ortiz and Dobie Moore especially–have been jaw-droppingly good.

The situation is the same in the OF, where Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson are tearing the cover off the ball and Mookie Betts, Ted Williams, and David Justice are all mired in the muck of sub .500 OPS’. Look for both of these logjams to break over the next week.

Third Cuts

P remains a conundrum compounded by Bill Doak and Jon Lester (both stalwarts last season) struggling. For all his versatility, Tim Wakefield just can’t seem to get a feel for his knuckleball, and heads to AAA along with Derek Lowe.

Kurt Suzuki is fantastic defensively behind the plate, but his offense is just too weak for the WBL at this point. He joins Iván De Jesús, Mike Greenwell, Andrew Benintendi, Dwight Evans, and Candy Jim Taylor at AAA.

That sounds like a lot, but there are still a lot of roster questions to figure out. The odds are only one of Joe Cronin, Joe Cunningham, and Travis Shaw can make the roster, and it’s not clear if there is space for all three of Nomar Garciaparra, Dobie Moore, and Vern Stephens. Given that Bill White and Wade Boggs are entrenched as starters on the corners (with David Ortiz pushing White for time), there is a lot of pressure in the middle infield.

Even with the demotions of Joe Kelley and Hack Wilson, the Red Sox have eight OFers in camp, with established contributors Ted Williams (!), David Justice, and Mookie Betts all struggling to put the bat on the ball. This felt crowded even before camp started, with Manny Ramírez, Reggie Smith, Sammy Sosa, Williams, and Betts all but assured of spots. Add to that the stellar debuts from Carl Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson, and it’s all a bit of a mess.

Final Cuts

The acquisition of Gabby Hartnett leaves the C position pretty crowded, especially given Dobie Moore can fill in behind the plate in a pinch. As such, Bob Brenly heads to the minors despite a decent showing last season. He was joined by recent acquisition Rollie Fingers who needs another year of development at least.

The C position was finalized with Dave Engle‘s demotion, as Billy Bryan holds on to his roster spot behind Hartnett.

Moore’s presence also allows the Red Sox to keep only 1 of Claude Ritchey and Wayne Causey. Ritchey performed better both last season and in the Spring, so Causey finds himself on his way to AAA.

Young Jim Kaat impressed during the Spring, but will start the year at AAA, as will veteran IF Nomar Garciaparra, who again showed too little to warrant a WBL roster spot.

Despite showing some promise–certainly more than he showed in a disastrous 2000–Nixey Callahan will start the year at AAA, as will Jameson Taillon. 1B was always going to be crowded, when David Ortiz hit 6 homeruns during the Spring, it got ridiculous. That earned Ortiz a roster spot, with Joe Cronin and Joe Cunningham both heading to AAA, and Travis Shaw sticking with the Red Sox due to his ability to backup Wade Boggs at 3B.

And then there was one cut left to make.

The choices were Bill Doak (excellent last year, horrendous this Spring), Alex Johnson (a total unknown tearing the cover off the ball this Spring), or Carl Yastrzemski (a strong Spring, but no real place to get regular playing time). Memphis decided to get Yaz some regular at bats, making him the final cut of the Spring.

With all of the trades, the Black Barons brought Warren Spahn back to the big leagues and promoted both Kent Mercker and Bruce Chen. Changes in the field include a platoon at first between Frank McCormick and newcomer Adrián González and at third between Eddie Mathews and Pie Traynor. Herman Long and Ginger Beaumont were both promoted as well.

Bob Nieman and Del Crandall had 3 hits each and Hank Aaron drove in 3 runs as the Black Barons started the 2nd half with a 7-3 victory over Philadelphia.

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Darren Dreifort joins the Royal Giants’ bullpen and newcomer Frank Isbell steps right into the lineup.

With Ray Dandridge missing a couple weeks, the Royal Giants recalled SS Germany Smith from AAA.

#Miami Cuban Giants

José Méndez and Eustaquio Pedroso join the rotation, with Sandy Consuegra, Bill Landrum, and Phenomenal Smith all getting promotions to the big leagues. Alan Ashby took over a the fulltime catcher, with newly acquired Chris Hoiles his backup and Charlie Bennett moving to AAA.

Alexei Ramírez was sent to AAA as was José Tartabull (whose WBL stay lasted exactly one game) as both Alejandro Oms and Martín Dihigo were activated from the DL.

José Cardenal went deep twice and Ashby drilled a go-ahead 3-run homerun to lead the Cuban Giants to a come from behind, 8-6 victory over the Grays.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Frank Williams and Pascual Pérez move up to Portland’s bullpen. Rogers Hornsby‘s arrival means Fred Dunlap goes down to AAA, as Greg Litton‘s flexibility continues to keep him around.

Wade Miller improved to 6-0 by carrying a no-hitter through 6 innings en route to a 7-2 victory over the New York Gothams. Buddy Bell had 3 hits and he and Harry Hooper drove in 2 runs each for the Sea Dogs.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Lots of churn here. Huston Street and Eddie Joost were waived, although the Sea Lions hope to retain them. With a lot of moving parts, the Sea Lions are taking a risk by going with only one shortstop–Miguel Cairo–until Dick Lundy comes of the DL. Ron Hunt and Sal Bando are called up in the interim.

Two homeruns by Pedro Guerrero and a stellar start by Charlie Root weren’t enough as Indianapolis came back to beat San Francisco 4-3 in 10 innings. Chad Bradford balked in the winning run after Rod Beck suffered his third blown save of the season.

In a blowout loss to Chicago, 3B Pie Traynor hit a homerun in his first WBL at-bat.

Tim Hudson cemented his spot in the rotation, moving to 4-0 with over 7 strong innings in a 4-3 win over Chicago. Recently moved into the closer role, Juan Rincon picked up his 2nd save and Tom Herr, Bob Nieman, and Eddie Mathews had 2 hits each.

The American Giants were sailing along until, in the bottom of the 4th, Birmingham suddenly exploded for 5 runs behind a grand slam from Troy Tulowitzki. The Black Barons kept pouring it on, ending up with a 14-3 win. Billy Southworth has 3 hits including 2 triples, Del Crandall–replacing an injured Gene Tenace–went 3-for-3 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs and Herr added 3 hits in pushing his average back towards .350. Traynor continued his torrid start, going 2-for-5 with another homerun, and is now hitting .600 in his first few games for the club.

With Tenace’s injury still being diagnosed, the Black Barons went ahead and sent him to the DL, recalling Dale Murphy–who hasn’t done any better at AAA than he did before being sent down–and reinstating Al Schweitzer from the DL (Fred Fussell was sent back to AAA).

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Don Drysedale put in another strong start, but wasn’t around to see Ron Cey stroke a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 10th, lifting Brooklyn to a 6-5 victory over Homestead. The win went to Watty Clark, who moved to 3-1 with 2 innings of scoreless relief. Roy White had 3 hits, and he and Dan Brouthers both went deep.

In a game that saw Dutch Leonard become the WBL’s first 7 game loser, Tommy Hanson made his WBL debut by striking out the first 4 batters he faced.

#Miami Cuban Giants

Miami destroyed Los Angeles 18-3, with Will Clark going 4-for-4 with 4 runs and 4 RBIs. Both Clark (his 11th) and Charlie Bennett (his 3rd) went deep, and Bennett drove in 5. The news wasn’t all good: Ramon Martinez was sailing along, allowing only 2 hits and no runs into the 6th inning when he had to be removed from the game with tricep pain. It was enough to get his 3rd win of the year, but he’ll miss about six weeks. Dalier Hinojosa was waived to make room for Dontrelle Willis on the roster.

Steve Brown was returned to AAA as Rube Waddell came off the DL.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Dizzy Trout allowed only 2 hits through 8 innings (1 a 2-run homerun by Ernie Banks) in an 11-3 blowout win for Portland. Five Sea Dogs hit homeruns (Jeff Burroughs, Kent Hrbek, Gil Hodges, Harry Hooper, and Adrian Beltre), and Hodges and Ivan Rodriguez had 3 RBIs each.

Bert Blyleven threw a complete game, 4 hit, 132 pitch shutout as the Sea Dogs blew out the House of David, 11-0. Buddy Bell hit a 3-run homerun, and Rodriguez and Fred Dunlap had 3 hits each. Rodriguez and Hrbek also went deep for Portland.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Lefty Grove had a no-hitter through 6 innings as the Sea Lions defeated Philadelphia, 9-1. Jack Clark had 3 hits and 3 RBIs for San Francisco and Cy Perkins hit his first homerun of the year, a 3 run shot to seal the victory for Grove, who improved to 5-2 on the year. Rickey Henderson was caught stealing after 28 consecutive thefts when the Stars’ Sherm Lollar gunned him down.

The Black Barons may have found something with Tim Hudson. The recent callup improved to 3-0 with 8 strong innings against Portland, allowing 4 hits and 2 runs. Birmingham scored 5 runs against Walter Johnson in the 3rd inning in the 6-2 victory, preventing Johnson from notching his 7th win of the year. Tommy Herr–he of the .354 average–hit his first homerun of the season.

Not all the news was great for Birmingham, as Hoyt Wilhelm had to leave the game injured in the 9th inning. It looks like Wilhelm will miss about 5 days, leaving it up in the air whether the Black Barons will put him on the DL.

Playing .400 ball, the Black Barons made some major changes. Greg Maddux and Warren Spahn were both sent to AAA, as was closer Carlos Diaz, with Fred Fussell returning to Birmingham after injury rehab and Steve Bedrosian being recalled all the way from AA, where he had allowed only 8 hits in 22 innings. Juan Rincon will take over as closer from Diaz. Additionally, Chipper Jones and Emil Frisk were both waived, and 3B Pie Traynor was recalled into a platoon with struggling Eddie Matthews.

They would shake it up more, but the minor league talent that is performing well largely duplicates the only bright spots at the big league level–OFs Bob Nieman and Billy Southworth and IFs Frank McCormick, Frank Isbell, and Herr are playing too well to be replaced at the moment.

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Brickyard Kennedy and Smokey Joe Williams were both sent to AAA, with Dave Von Ohlen completing his rehab assignment and Tommy Hanson being recalled. Sandy Koufax moves into the starting rotation, taking Kennedy’s slot. Additionally, Pee Wee Reese was released and Hobe Ferris demoted to AAA, with Ray Dandridge and Hi Myers coming to Brooklyn. Mike Piazza lost his starting role, and is on the verge of demotion as well.

#Miami Cuban Giants

Alejandro Oms and Will Clark each hit homeruns (Oms’ first of the year) and Charlie Bennett added a key long ball to blow the game open as Miami beat Memphis, 8-4. Don Newcombe got his 2nd win on the year. Not all the news was good for the Cuban Giants, as Carlos Moran had to leave the game with an apparent elbow injury.

Sandy Consuegra was sent to AAA with Steve Brown receiving the call to Miami, a move that necessitated Yonder Alonso‘s being waived. 17 year old Martin Dihigo has struggled since returning from the DL, but his defensive versatility keeps him in Miami for the time being.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Kent Hrbek had 4 hits and Jim Fregosi–who had stranded 6 runners on base earlier in the game–delivered a walk-off sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th inning to lead the Sea Dogs over the Black Barons 3-2. Portland pitchers only allowed 4 hits in the game (all from starter Jerry Koosman, who gave up 2 earned runs in 8 innings of work). Johan Santana picked up the win to even his record at 1-1.

The Sea Dogs have some good decisions to make on the mound. Wade Miller‘s fantastic turns in the starting rotation mean that Smokey Joe Wood returns from injury to the bullpen instead of his starting spot. Bob Porterfield and Randy Myers both did well in Portland, but Wood and Jim Kern‘s return send them back to AAA, along with Frank Williams.

On the bench, the Greg Litton question persists: Litton serves as a reserve at a ton of positions, but is struggling to reach a .400 OPS. He remains for now, but the team is considering a bench shake up, returning Litton, Jeff Burroughs, and Gary Pettis to AAA due to their offensive struggles.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

The Sea Lions overcame a 5 run deficit, winning the game against Detroit 8-7 with a walk-off homerun from Jack Clark in the bottom of the 10th. Jimmy Bloodworth homered and had 4 RBIs and Reggie Jackson continued his torrid season going 3-for-5. The win went to Ron Robinson, who is now 3-1.

Dennis Eckersley was returned to AAA to try to find his rhythm on the mound again, with Huston Street being recalled to shore up the middle of the bullpen. Charlie Root will replace Eckersley in the rotation.

In a somewhat surprising move, Charlie Reilly was sent to AAA, while Eddie Joost and Mickey Cochrane remain on the roster. Bob Cerv, who had impressed in a brief stint with the Sea Lions, was recalled into a very crowded OF.

The trio of Larry Benton, Greg Maddux, and Warren Spahn have been simply miserable. Benton has only pitched 4 innings, so he may get a pass, but Maddux and Spahn are both on the edge of being sent back down to AAA.

Tim Hudson, on the other hand, has done well enough to, at least for the time being, move into the rotation as the 5th starter.

The Black Barons have finally lost patience with Dale Murphy, whose 137/254/157 line has just refused to improve. Murphy will head to AAA Atlanta, with Del Crandall–who hasn’t hit particularly well, but does offer better defense–moving to the WBL.

#Miami Cuban Giants

Two homeruns from Manny Machado and Alexei Ramirez‘ first longball of the year powered Miami to a 8-4 win over Philadelphia. Tommy Bridges improved to 3-0, reducing his ERA to 2.87.

Bill Landrum was demoted to AAA, with Clay Condrey, who had dominated AAA so far, being recalled to Miami’s bullpen. To make room for Condrey, Tony Fossas was released.

The mix of Charlie Bennett and John Munyan behind the plate has been miserable for the Cuban Giants. Bennett stays in Miami due to his defense, with Munyan and OF Tony Gonzalez both being shipped out to AAA. Alan Ashby was recalled at C and Gary Sheffield–slashing 358/450/621 in Orlando–was recalled as well.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Jeff Burroughs and Fred Dunlap hit their first homeruns of the year, and Buddy Bell added his 8th to support a strong start from Bert Blyleven in a 14-2 blowout win for the Sea Dogs over Los Angeles. Harry Hooper scored 3 times, Bobby Murcer had 3 hits, and Kent Hrbek and Dunlap drove in 3 with Bell driving in 4.

Not only did the Sea Dogs lose 7-5 to the Angels by giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the eighth, they lost both Smokey Joe Wood and Frank Williams to injuries. Both pitchers were put on the 10 day DL, with Pascual Perez and Bob Porterfield coming up to Portland (the moves also cleared the way for impressive 18-year old Rick Wise to move from AA to AAA).

Walter Johnson became the first 6-game winner in the WBL, besting Gerrit Cole in a greatly anticipated pitching matchup. Johnson threw 8 strong innings and Joe Mauer scored 4 runs as the Sea Dogs won, 9-2. Mauer and Hrbek went deep and Murcer had 4 RBI.

The Sea Dogs may have uncovered a gem: Joseito Munoz had sparkled in a few relief appearances, and given his first start, the young Cuban responded with over 6 innings of 1-run ball, winning his first game. Murcer had 3 hits and scored 3 times , and Burroughs homered again to lead Portland to a 6-1 victory.

Even with Munoz’ performance, the Sea Dogs anointed Wade Miller as their 5th starter. Harmon Killebrew was demoted to AAA, with Adrian Beltre joining Portland. Greg Litton‘s ability to cover a half-dozen positions is the only thing keeping him in the WBL, and Burroughs’ recent hot streak has moved him away from the demotion line as well.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Bobby Bonds pulled up lame, and will spend 10 days on the DL. Veteran Bob Cerv–slashing 339/382/711 at AAA–will be recalled, with the Sea Lions releasing 35-year old Jason Giambi to clear space on the roster.

Unsurprisingly given the quality of his 5 appearances to date, Diego Segui was named to the starting rotation.

Final Roster

SP: Rube Waddell, Eustaquio Pedroso, Ramon Martinez, Camilo Pascual, Tommy Bridges.
RP: Dontrelle Willis & Don Newcombe; Ed Bauta & Ryota Igarashi; Sandy Conseugra & Bill Landrum; Aroldis Chapman.

C: John Munyan; Charlie Bennett
1B: Joe Adcock
2B: Cookie Rojas; Martin Dihigo
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Robin Yount
LF: Tony Gonzalez & Ryan Braun
CF: Jose Cardenal
RF: Jose Canseco; Alejandro Oms
DH: Yonder Alonso

Notes

As expected, Jose Mendez heads to AAA to try to develop his immense potential … Tommy Bridges and Dontrelle Willis were neck-and-neck for the final rotation slot, with Bridges veteran status giving him the edge over the 24 year old Willis … John Munyan and defensive whiz Charlie Bennett will split the duties at C, with Bennett’s glove edging out Andy Ashby‘s utility as a switch hitter … the final cut was quite complicated: 17 year old Martin Dihigo is a defensive whiz across the spectrum and Alejandro Oms provides that same ability in the OF. But neither really hit all that well, although Oms certainly has the tools to do so. Still, they allow the Cuban Giants such flexibility that keeping them is highly attractive. That makes the choice boil down to Ryan Braun and Willie Kamm. Kamm’s roller coaster of a Spring–from the hottest player in the league to a deathly cold finish–sends him off to the minors … Jose Canseco, Oms, and Yonder Alonso form a platoon trio, with Alonso playing v LHP and Oms v RHP and Canseco moving between RF and DH.

1B Joe Adcock is winding down his career at 38 and SP Tommy Bridges at 36 is no spring chicken. At the other end is Dihigo at 17 and 2 SP–Eustaquio Pedroso and Ramon Martinez–at 21.

Mendez should be the 1st starter recalled from AAA, while Gary Sheffield, Yasiel Puig, and Evan Longoria are also all waiting there for their opportunity. At AA, the brightest lights are a pair of 2B, 18 year old Clete Boyer and 24 year old Tony Taylor.