Playoff contention. Last year was such a disappointment, but there is too much talent here not to be at least in the run for the postseason.

Best Case

Tim Hudson finds a full season like his time with Birmingham last year, joining Lefty Grove and Eddie Plank in a top tier rotation and 1st round pick Turkey Stearnes steps right into the CF job while Dick Lundy improves in a full season in a lineup centered around Rickey Henderson, Reggie Jackson, and Bobby Bonds.

Worst Case

Everything stays really confused, with the pitching proving too mediocre to depend on and the offense never really sorting out playing time at 1B (Jack Clark and Jimmie Foxx) or 3B (Sal Bando and Pedro Guerrero), leaving everyone slightly underused and underperforming.

Key Questions

• On a team full of logjams, who steps forward?

Trade Bait

Possibly. If Foxx explodes, Jack Clark may be expendable, depending on how the OF/DH situation looks.

The decision to trade Guerrero makes some sense, given the OF depth, although a lot is riding on Watty Clark successfully converting to being a starter at a high level to make it a decent deal.

Roster Evaluation

The OF is so strong, it just needs a little help–if that happens and the pitching repeats, it could be a good year by the bay.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

An odd system, for sure, as neither Jimmie Foxx nor John Beckwith make the top 200 list, which ends up being a bit weak, with a lot riding on the development of the young arms. Stearnes, Hadley, Eckersley, and Ontiveros all start the year in the WBL.

While Turkey Stearnes will receive a lot of attention during the spring, how roles fall out between Sal Bando, Pedro Guerrero, Dick Lundy, and Roy Hartzell will see some focus as well–someone in that group is likely to end up at SS, and none of them are really naturals at that position.

Injuries

Carl Erskine was a long shot to make the roster; a shoulder injury costing him most of spring training confirmed he will start the season in the minors.

First Cuts

A host of arms were sent down: Red Ehret, Diego Seguí, Frank Barberich, James Shields, Charlie Ferguson and Rube Walberg all hit the minors, clearing quite a bit of space as the Sea Lions try to work out their staff.

Behind the plate, Mickey Cochrane has moved into the lead for the starting spot, with only Jack Warner being sent to the minors. That leaves only 3 full-time backstops in camp, which may mean that San Francisco continues to want to give John Beckwith a longer look. IF Bobby Bragan can also fill in at C if necessary.

With the Sea Lions committed to both John Beckwith and Jimmie Foxx, Don Money, Sid Bream, Bill Sweeney, and Wayne Gross found themselves with tickets to minor league camp, despite performances no worse than Beckwith’s or Foxx’s.

Denny Hocking and Ted Sizemore head to the minors, but that’s not really enough to sort out the middle infield, where Dick Lundy, Ron Hunt, and Roy Hartzell have been quite strong.

The OF is a little clearer as Turkey Stearnes has absolutely blown the cover off the ball, justifying his draft position. Eddie Murphy, Mookie Wilson, Del Unser, Jules Thomas, Darrell Brown, and Patsy Donovan were all sent to the minors while Bob Cerv remains, despite early struggles.

Second Cuts

Dave LaRoche is in danger of being sent to the minors, but for now the Sea Lions staff stays stable.

Just about the only clear message from camp so far is that Turkey Stearnes is for real and, at this point, the 22 year old rookie looks likely to start the season in CF for the Sea Lions. Aside from that … it’s all muddled. Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, and Pedro Guerrero can’t hit a lick; neither Bobby Bragan nor Royce Clayton deserve to stay in camp, but with the team very thin in the MI, both do; Mickey Cochrane is making a play for the starting C spot, but both Brian Downing and Gene Oliver are refusing to claim the backup slot. So it goes.

Teenager John Beckwith heads to AAA for a bit more seasoning, and IF Jack Farrell heads down as well.

Third Cuts

Mickey Cochrane has edged ahead of the struggling Gene Oliver and even more struggling Brian Downing as the likely opening day C for the Sea Lions.

IFs Bobby Bragan and Royce Clayton were sent to AAA, but San Francisco still has some issues to sort out on the infield: too many 1B are mashing the ball (Jimmie Foxx, Jack Clark, Jason Giambi), Roy Hartzell, who finished last season as the presumptive starter at SS, has struggled, and both Phil Garner and Dick Lundy are playing well enough to demand more time.

Walt Williams has hit well, but the Sea Lions OF is pretty crowded and the trio of Frank Howard, Bob Cerv, and Josh Reddick have all hit better, so Williams is off to AAA.

It’s not clear what San Francisco does here: rookie phenom Turkey Stearnes has exceeded all expectations and looks set to play CF, leaving Rickey Henderson, Pedro Guerrero, Bobby Bonds, and Reggie Jackson competing for the corner OF and DH spots.

Final Cuts

Jair Jurrjens had raised some eyebrows in an attempt to make the roster as a swing starter, but it was always unlikely, and a couple late rough outings sealed his fate as Jurrjens heads to AAA. Josh Reddick was sent down along with slick fielding SS Eddie Miller. Miller’s demotion answers several other questions: Dick Lundy looks to be the everyday SS, with Roy Hartzell his backup, clearing the way for Sal Bando at 3B.

RP Dave LaRoche was sent to AAA along with Carl Erskine, which may virtually solidify the pitching staff for the Sea Lions, leaving only 13 arms in camp. Brian Downing continues to look good enough for the WBL until he’s actually given a chance: he’ll head to AAA, with catching duties for San Francisco falling to Mickey Cochrane and Gene Oliver in a likely platoon. Ron Hunt does have a knack for getting clipped by pitches, but that’s just not enough to justify a roster spot: he’ll start the year in AAA as well.

Jim Devlin was the final arm moved out of camp.

Jason Giambi was sent down despite his obvious power, as were Bob Cerv and Matt Holliday. Cerv refused his demotion, and was made a free agent.

That made the final cut a choice between OF Frank Howard, incumbent 2B Jimmy Bloodworth (who has struggled all Spring), and light hitting IF Roy Hartzell (which would leave the Sea Lions without a real reserve at SS). Given the OF depth on the roster, it wasn’t terribly surprising that Howard was the final cut from camp.

Overall

What a disappointing season. There is talent here, they were in the mix at the all-star break, and then just totally collapsed throughout all of July. Much more is expected in Year II.

What Went Right

Reggie Jackson was an elite offensive force, finishing the year with an OPS over 1.000 and while there was a gap between him and the Sea Lions’ next best hitters, Bobby Bonds, Pedro Guerrero, and Rickey Henderson all look like they are set for quite some time.

Similarly, the top end of the rotation–Eddie Plank and Lefty Grove–look quite good, and both Nick Altrock and Bump Hadley impressed in limited starts. Ken Howell, Ron Robinson, and Rod Beck were excellent at the back of the bullpen.

ALL STARS
RP Rod Beck; P Lefty Grove; OF Rickey Henderson; RP Ken Howell; OF Reggie Jackson, P Charlie Root

What Went Wrong

The MI was never really settled. Jimmy Bloodworth was fine at 2B, Dick Lundy spent as much time injured as showing flashes of potential, and the SS job was eventually claimed by Roy Hartzell.

Gene Oliver ended up the primary backstop, which speaks to just how much Mickey Cochrane and Brian Downing struggled. John Beckwith couldn’t stick with the big league club, but at 18 he can be forgiven.

Tim Hudson imploded after being acquired from Birmingham, although he recovered a bit towards the end of the season. Nobody else really stepped up on the mound, with Dennis Eckersley and Dave LaRoche being especially disappointing.

Trade Evaluations

March

OF Pete Browning, P Rollie Fingers, SS Bert Campaneris, P Eddie Rommel & IF Mark McGwire to House of David for IF Dick Lundy, OF Bobby Bonds & P Nick Altrock

A true blockbuster with impact on both sides. As San Francisco got 3 players who spent most of the year as WBL contributors, they have to be happy with the deal, even with Browning’s performance.

June

P Rube Melton, OF Derrick May & 3rd Round Pick to Birmingham for P Tim Hudson

Hudson’s struggles make this look bad, but it still feels like a worthwhile gamble to have taken.

IF Steve Hertz & 2nd Round Pick to Homestead for IF Phil Garner

They wish they had the pick now.

OF Wally Moon, OF Dwayne Murphy, 4th Round Pick & 6th Round Pick to Los Angeles for C Brian Downing, IF Kurt Stillwell & P Dave LaRoche

Downing was supposed to solve the issues at C for San Francisco. He didn’t.

P Shawn Estes, P Turk Wendell & 5th Round Pick to Miami for P Tommy Bridges

Meh. I mean at this point the Sea Lions were still in playoff contention, and Bridges looked solid. Still. Meh.

July

P Charlie Root & P Chad Bradford to Detroit for IF Charlie Gehringer, P Red Ehret, IF Bill Sweeney & 4th Round Pick {Charlie Ferguson}

Oof. Root and Bradford helped Detroit to the Whirled Series, Gehringer was eventually released. A clear loss for San Francisco in this one.

Looking Forward

SP

Grove, Plank, and Eckersley are a solid top 3. One of the few teams with a decent amount of mound talent.

RP

Set for now, and this may be where Eckersley ends up, long term.

C

Mickey Cochrane is supposed to be the answer here, but he has to hit over .200. Some good young talent (Dave Duncan, John Mizerock), so there are options.

1B

Jack Clark will play here, but he’s really just waiting on Jimmie Foxx to come into his own. John Beckwith will factor in eventually, and newcomer Sid Bream looks impressive as well.

2B

Who knows. Keith Ginter was great at AAA, Dick Green has shown some talent, and Dick Lundy can play here when healthy.

3B

For now, Pedro Guerrero will see some time here, but it really looks like Sal Bando is the answer for a while.

SS

If Lundy can stay in the lineup, he should be here.

LF

When Rickey Henderson was hitting .230 he had some value; as he raised his average to .270, he locked this position down long-term.

CF

There really aren’t any natural CF’s here, so look for Bobby Bonds to continue to cover best he can.

RF

Everyone ends up here: Reggie Jackson for now, but it’s also the more natural position for both Bonds and Guerrero.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The Sea Lions only have 8 picks in the draft, and in the early rounds only 3 in the first 7 rounds (a 1st, a 4th, and a 7th). So there is a ton of pressure on their initial pick.

They reached deep for it, taking unheralded CF Turkey Stearnes. The pick thrilled many experts, even if it meant bypassing more highly touted CFers (Al Simmons, Earl Averill).

And then the Sea Lions did … nothing … until the 19th pick of the 4th round, where they picked up a project in SP Charlie Ferguson.

Rounds 5-8

And then nothing until the 7th round. The Sea Lions will be focusing on 1B, OF, and pitching, pitching, pitching from here on out, beginning with Pete Harnisch. Franchise pick Jed Lowrie proved too tempting in the 8th, even though IF isn’t an area of need, strictly speaking.

Rounds 9-12

OF Jules Thomas (final exemption); P Steve Ontiveros; P Dave Lemanczyk; and IF Nick Allen.

The goal was to make the first 5 or 6 rounds all contain potentially worthy players.

Each team may make up to 4 “free” picks, meaning they can select anyone remaining in the game. For the rest of their selections, they are limited to players historically attached (meaning, a significant amount of their playing time) to their franchises.

Here are the teams, listed in the draft order, and their number of picks per round in the draft for the first 10 rounds (rounds 11 and 12 are unchanged, with each team having 1 pick):

A few things jump out from that:

• San Francisco clearly made a mess of the season, finishing both with the 7th worst record on the season and having traded away most of their draft capital in deals in June when they still looked to have a shot to contend.
• Birmingham, tied with Indianapolis for the most picks, did so while still making the playoffs.
• Kansas City, Homestead, and the House of David each have 4 picks over the first 2 rounds.

Here’s how the AI sees the top twenty prospects, along with the franchises that are eligible to draft them.

That is, of course, a really odd list in places (Mickey Hughes, anyone?). So here are the next 20, in no particular order and according to me.

Results for each team are listed in their Season Review pages, coming soon.