Indianapolis sees a path to victory based on roster depth and flexibility. The challenge is they still need quality — a gap the organization has been addressing, bit by bit, and optimism runs high for the ABC’s in 2002.

The instinct is as old as the franchise, with the most discussed impact being Indianapolis’ commitment to being the only club in the WBL that runs a 6-man rotation by choice. And they’ve been solid at addressing their holes — the OF was a churn of bodies in 2000, less so in 2001, and heading into 2002, the holes in the roster have shrunk considerably. Given they were in the postseason last Fall a year ahead of schedule, the optimism may be warranted.

The core is exceptional: Oscar Charleston in center, Johnny Bench behind the plate, Joe Morgan at second, Luis Padrón on the mound — 21, 26, 22 and 22 years old. Of the 4, Padrón is both the highest risk (pitchers, don’t you know), and the most important: the offense hasn’t shown that it can carry the club on its own, and Padrón’s dependable ace-level start is needed. The ABC’s are working on it, though: 3B was mediocre last year (no insult intended for the workmanlike production of Chris Sabo), so they gave up the most precious commodity in the WBL — pitching talent in the shape of Tom Glavine, George Medich and Jack Billingham — to Portland for third baseman Buddy Bell (repeated WBL failure Robin Ventura was included as well, but that was as much a favor to him to get a fresh start as anything else; of course Indianapolis was his prior fresh start).

Billingham’s inclusion is potentially telling. Rob Dibble led a carnival ride of a bullpen (Dibble saved 24 games with a 4.87 ERA and 29 walks in 44 innings) with Billingham being the single steady arm. The move signals faith in the options in hand, but we’ll see.

▌ 2001 Revisited

The bar for 2001 was modest: playing .500 ball would be a nice step; doing so while nurturing some talent for the future would begin to raise hopes. Indianapolis went 80-83, missing the bar, but qualifying for a Wild Card series anyway — 2nd in the Marvin Miller Division, in October a year early.

Three things came together. Padrón, a curiosity in last year’s preview, went 23-3 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at 22 and took the Brock Rutherford Award. Charleston hit 337/381/619 at 21 with 38 homers and 46 steals, and led the WBL with 14 triples. Morgan hit 306/425/612 in 104 games and then was hurt in September, essentially dooming the playoff run.

Padrón’s emergence masked some serious questions: the ABC’s were banking on the continued development of Doc White and Willie Mitchell. Both regressed a bit: White posted a 6.55 ERA and Mitchell walked 55 in 118 innings.

Speaking of regression … Bench was arguably the best backstop in the WBL in 2000; in 2001, he still led the club with 46 homers, but hit only .238, dropping about 3-and-a-half WAR from 2000. A catcher producing a 2.3 WAR still has immense value, but there is a significant gap there, and it’s not clear which is more likely for his career.

▌ Key Changes

In: Buddy Bell (POR); Jeff D Robinson (NYY)
Out: Jack Billingham (POR); Ed Charles (NYY); Robin Ventura (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Norm Charlton; Luke Gregerson; Billy McCool; Jeff D Robinson; Ed Swartwood; Steve Yeager

▌ Best Case for 2002

Most of all, Padrón repeats. But, also, Bench bounces back, Morgan stays on the field for a full year, and Charleston at 22 is what he was at 21. Bell settles third base and the supporting cast holds its shape: George Foster‘s 38 homers, Joey Votto‘s 36 alongside a Gold Glove, Bob Bescher stealing 80 bases out of the bottom of the order.

And the ninth inning resolves itself in-house. Luke Gregerson, Norm Charlton or 19-year-old Billy McCool takes the job, Dibble’s walks come down, and a Wild Card team turns into a problem for the rest of the division.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The bullpen remains an unpredictable ordeal, Morgan’s health goes again, or Padrón’s 235 innings at 22 prove a serious error in judgement.

Barry Larkin doesn’t hit, shortstop goes back on the want list, and the lineup turns out to be homers and walks stapled to a lot of empty at-bats: 4 of the 9 regulars hit .246 or worse last year.

▌ Key Questions

• Where does the eighth inning come from? Behind Dibble are Pedro Strop, Gregerson, Charlton, McCool and Jeff D Robinson, a set of live arms with a combined big-league record of nearly nothing. Rob Murphy, the other half of last year’s back end, posted a 5.66 and opens this season at Triple-A.
• Does the 6-man rotation survive? I mean, at some point this stops being a question and just the operating norm for Indianapolis. But it’s still a bit of a curiosity, and last year’s final form was really more akin to 4 starters taking irregular turns behind Padrón and Johnny Cueto. Cueto threw 212 innings of 4.62 ball; behind the 2 horses sit veteran Eppa Rixey (5.16 in the WBL, 3.88 at Triple-A), Mitchell, White, and 20-year-old Edward Nolan, who struck out 94 in 83 innings while walking 52.
• Does the offense hold a second season? It raked, and it did it strangely: Bench at .238, Adam Dunn at .207 with 36 homers and 30 steals, Foster at .259 with 38. The power and the on-base are real, the batting averages are not. That means the margin for error is pretty slim, and any regression or dip could tank the offense entirely.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

One line in that grid is doing 2 jobs. Padrón made 33 starts on the mound in 2001 and also started 23 games at third base and 14 at second, taking 259 plate appearances — a genuine 2-way season.

▌ Talent Ratings

▌ Best In The Minors

Others: 3B Bob Aspromonte, SS Donie Bush, 3B Oliver Marcell, P Brad Radke.

That is a short list. A year ago it ran 10 deep and led with 2 teenage arms; Edward Nolan has graduated into the rotation and Foster into the outfield, while Ventura and Tom Glavine — 4th and 7th on that list — went to Portland in the Bell deal. Dave Winfield, the 15th pick of the 2001 draft but nearing readiness for the WBL level already, is the bat that replaced them at the top, and Jim Maloney is still the arm to watch, though at 20 he’s being asked to move from the bullpen into a rotation. Sean Casey is a big-league-ready first baseman with Votto in front of him.

What’s underneath is infield-shaped and a year or 2 out: Aspromonte and Marcell are the 3B pair, Bush the in-house answer at shortstop, Radke the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year. And for the sentimental, Pete Rose, is playing out the string at the Cincinnati affiliate, having gotten his WBL looks and not hit a lick in them. But, you know, don’t bet against him.

▌ Superlatives

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

We’ll cover the first 3 rounds pick-by-pick here, then rounds 4-10 team by team.

A reminder: each team can make 2 picks outside of players historically associated with their seed franchises; the rest (until the tail end of the draft) must come from players that spent a significant period of their career with them.

OOTP does its usual fun on whether these picks actually sign, so news on that will hit future TWIWBL’s.

We are moving towards the 2002 season, for reference. Debut is, of course, an estimate.

#Round 1

Note that Round 1 contained 2 compensation picks for picks from last year’s draft that refused to sign.

#Round 2

We’re quickly moving to less immediately impactful names, so we’ll do the rest of the draft as team summaries.