Two years ago the Stars lost 98 games and finished dead last, an aging club going nowhere. One year later they won 87 and played in October. So, are the Stars good, or lucky, or both?

It’s not clear. This is a club that bets on the future, handing LF to a talented, but somewhat raw, 21-year-old in Sherry Magee. But it’s also a club that keeps handing PA to Rico Carty, an ageless wonder closer to 40 than not. The fans are done deliberating, and fully believe — they watched a laughingstock turn into a contender behind Aaron Judge‘s 63 home runs and Charles Rogan, a two-way rookie unlike anything the league has ever seen. They’d like more of the same, please. Now, please.

The front office is a little more skeptical, seeing a middle infield that remains unsettled, a center fielder in Willie Davis who may have cratered at 22 (despite a Gold Glove), and a host of bats yet to prove they are more than AAAA quality. So the official line is a build towards 2003.

So much depends on how the first few months of 2002 happen in Philly.

▌ 2001 Revisited

A year ago we said anything approaching .500 would be a significant step forward. Philadelphia won 87, took a Wild Card berth and lost to Houston 4-1. So, significant steps.

The best case had Rogan pairing with Steve Carlton to anchor the rotation, and Bobby Abreu and Judge both taking a step. Judge took several — 278/382/699 with 63 homers and 83 walks; and Rogan was better than anyone had a right to expect, hitting 308/362/620 while making 30 starts, and took home both the NL Rookie of the Year and the organizational MVP. Abreu never really got the chance — 90 plate appearances in Philadelphia, the rest of his year at Triple-A, and then he was traded in August. Carlton is the one who struggled: 12-13 with a 5.05 ERA and 2.26 home runs per 9. But, he did throw the second no-hitter in WBL history, and clearly has talent. The best arm was the surprising Hardie Henderson instead — 18 wins, a 3.78 ERA, 4.7 WAR.

The question we got most wrong was the infield. We asked whether the flashes from Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh would hold up over a full season, and the answer was a resounding No. Not only did those 2 not make it, César Hernández faded, Jimmy Rollins was miserable at short, and while Chase Utley eventually took over second base and won a Gold Glove there, questions remain about his future.

▌ Key Changes

In: —

Out: Sherm Lollar (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Richie Ashburn; Odúbel Herrera; Andrew Payne

▌ Best Case for 2002

The pitching was not a fluke. Philadelphia finished 4th in the league in ERA at 4.78. To repeat that, Henderson’s command needs to improve, J.M. Ward, 21, needs to reduce the number of times the ball leaves the yard, Carlton needs to progress, and Ray Collins, the one starter whose command actually beat his ERA, needs to stay healthy for a full year.

And, some questions get answered — whether it’s Magee continuing to impress, Harmon Killebrew and Jung Ho Kang either succeeding or not at the WBL level, or the middle infield pairing of Fregosi and Utley declaring itself good enough for a championship run. Any of that would help. The Stars may or may not win more games, the key is that they know more about their talent at the end of 2002.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The worst case isn’t a collapse, it’s a shrug.

Nothing clarifies and the existing talent regresses, throwing even more into doubt. This last is a real concern: most of this rotation beat its peripherals, which is not a great sign for the future. But slippage from Judge or Bill Dickey would also hurt, throwing some of what the Stars see as settled into question.

▌ Key Questions

• Can Rogan keep doing all of it? 187 innings across 30 starts, 521 plate appearances, including significant time in the OF. Nobody else in the league carries anything like that load, so there is nothing to measure it against — no read on what it costs him in August, or what it leaves of him at 25. And, crucially, if Rogan slips, where does Philadelphia slot him — do they value him at bat more or less than on the mound?
• Can they avoid the AAAA trap? First base and designated hitter are being handed to 2 men whose bats have only ever done it in the minors. Kang hit 296/354/692 and then 318/367/709 at Triple-A last year, at 29 — not at all young. Killebrew is the opposite shape: 24, 35 home runs at Triple-A, but with a 229 average. We said last winter that Kang might turn out to be the epitome of a AAAA player, or might not. Still true, still unanswered.
• What is the bullpen? Bob Howry saved 25 games with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, which is a closer’s line, but he is 34 and it came in under 40 innings. The 2 arms behind him are mirror images: Fred Cambria ran a 3.04 while striking out 5.5 per 9, and Brad Kilby ran a 6.20 while striking out 9.2 per 9 and walking 1.2. One of them is getting away with something and the other is being robbed.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

With Sherry Magee opening on the injured list, Andrew Payne gets left field on his glove.

▌ Talent Ratings

▌ Best In The Minors

Others: P Pete Alexander, OF Harry Hooper, IF Prince Fielder, IF Luis Aparicio, P Scott Garrelts.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Richie Ashburn (41), Harmon Killebrew (65).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep. It’s down to 2, and mostly for the right reason: the farm graduated onto an 87-win roster. Bill Gatewood, Bill Dickey, Ashburn and Killebrew all made the jump, and Rogan — the 1st overall pick that 98-loss season paid for — is already the best player in the organization. LaTroy Hawkins went to Portland in the Fregosi deal. What’s left is Mélido Pérez and Ben Tincup, both arms, both a way off, and neither particularly exciting.

▌ Superlatives

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.