Overall

What a surprising year in Philadelphia!

This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.

It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.

It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.

The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.

The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).

What Went Right

We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.

Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.

Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.

At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.

Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.

At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.

Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.

ALL STARS

Hardie Henderson
Aaron Judge
Charles Rogan

MAJOR AWARDS

Willie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove

RECOGNITIONS

Fred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team

ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Charles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite

Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.

The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.

Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.

Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.

There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.

Transactions

March

None.

July

P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.

It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).

August

P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.

This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.

OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. Why not.

Positional Overview

C

Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.

There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.

1B

This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.

Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.

2B

It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.

There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.

Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.

LF/RF

RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.

There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.

CF

This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.

This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.

And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.

DH

The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.

SP

Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.

The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.

Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.

RP

Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?

That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

The Stars could make a move for a 2B, or even a CF. But really their future is wrapped up in the continued development of their current talent.

Overall

The penultimate team to be eliminated from the playoffs, the Royal Giants were a bit of a surprise, but still need help to move into true playoff contention. Most of that needs to come from the offense, where there is a lack of elite talent virtually across the board. But they are one of the few teams in the league stacked on the mound.

What Went Right

Not a lot of high spots offensively. CF John Briggs destroyed AA, was promoted to Brooklyn, and totally crushed WBL pitching over his first 40 games. RF Beals Becker, against all expectations, was the team MVP, combining power and speed to great effect.

Roy White was the heart of the team and Duke Snider their best source of power, but neither were true stars if we’re being honest, with OPS’ in the low .800s.

Beyond that … I dunno … they stole a lot of bases (7 players had over 15: Becker, White, Snider, Frank Isbell, Jackie Robinson, Dickie Thon, and Davey Lopes).

If that all sounds very wishy-washy, let’s move on to a more encouraging topic: the Royal Giants kicked ass on the mound, led by Don Drysedale and Frank Knauss. Sandy Koufax and Dutch Leonard were a little erratic, but very solid behind them, and the bullpen was spectacular, led by Watty Clark (likely to be converted to a starter), Eric Gagne (likely to take Clark’s place as closer), Trevor Hildenberger, and Darren Dreifort.

How good were they? Only one pitcher–Ralph Branca over 31 innings–had a negative WAR.

ALL STARS
SP Don Drysedale

What Went Wrong

The IF was a bit weak all year, with Jackie Robinson and Ray Dandridge both being decent, but not quite good enough to hold down a steady spot in the lineup. Mike Piazza was horrible at C, earning a trip to AAA and leaving duties behind the plate to Al López and Duke Farrell, who weren’t very good.

Probably the biggest mistake on the mound was not calling up Smokey Joe Williams earlier.

Transactions

March

None

June

P Don Sutton to New York Gothams for OF Don Mueller, P Ray Lamb, P Gil Heredia, P Lew Krausse Jr, 1st Round Pick {Al Simmons} & 8th Round Pick

A big win, especially for a team rich in arms.

OF Curt Flood, 2B Manny Trillo & 6th Round Pick to Birmingham for IF Frank Isbell

Isbell did well, but that’s a lot to give up for a 30 year old.

July

None

Looking Forward

SP

The Royal Giants could have as many as 7 starters under long term contracts: Don Drysedale, Smokey Joe Williams, Sandy Koufax, Watty Clark, Orel Hershiser, Dick Redding, and Nap Rucker sounds like a very intimidating staff …

RP

… especially with Darren Dreifort, Eric Gagne, and Ron Perranoski coming out of the bullpen.

C

Brooklyn is hoping this is Mike Piazza but early indications are not great.

1B

A clear void at the moment, but the Royal Giants like the potential of Dan Brouthers.

2B

Hopefully, Jackie Robinson can do a bit more offensively.

3B

At some point, the Royal Giants will need to decide between Ron Cey and Ray Dandridge.

SS

Germany Smith‘s surprising power earned him a look for next year, but if that doesn’t work out, it’s not clear what plan B is.

LF

Roy White for a while, and after that, who knows?

CF

This could be interesting. Right now, this is John Briggs‘ position to lose, but Brooklyn also has Ron Fairly and Duke Snider in the mix.

RF

Beals Becker will hold this down for a while, but the team is really hoping Raúl Mondesi can take it over at some point.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The Royal Giants have 2 first round picks, so they have a chance to address some of their offensive struggles. The first went to Ed Delahanty, who should actually fit in well: he plays a mixture of 2B, 1B, and the OF, allowing him to slot in around their current talent. The second was more of shock that OF Al Simmons was still available.

Brooklyn was annoyed when Los Angeles took Babe Herman just before their pick in the 2nd round, forcing them to scramble. They eventually settled on Dazzy Vance–an odd choice for a team as pitching rich as the Royal Giants, but Vance projects as a late bloomer.

In the 3rd round, the Royal Giants picked up OF George Selkirk and in the 4th C/OF prospect Elston Howard, their final franchise exemption.

Rounds 5-8

5th round pick Jimmy Johnston is an OFer now, but may end up in the IF eventually and 7th round pick Walker Buehler may actually end up being a bit of a steal.

From here on out, it’s C, pitching, and perhaps some OF depth for the Royal Giants, beginning with Ps Doc Scanlan and Vic Lombardi in the 8th round.

Rounds 9-12

P Odalis Pérez; IF Greg Pryor; P Doc Newton; and P Victor González.

There’s really just one.

Mea Culpa and Massive Overperformance

These are both issues with the OOTP engine and failures of me as the ultimate arbiter of the WBL universe. The exemplars here–and really the only truly egregious examples–are Ron Blomberg and Elrod Hendricks, both of whom were superstars in Year I, a status they never, ever approached in real life.

This is part of the challenge of doing this on your own–my sense of baseball history has blind spots. I had thought Blomberg had a couple good, full time seasons, but only really remembered him, like most of us, as the first DH. In real life, injuries and a huge platoon split prevented him from ever approaching full time usage. In the WBL, not only did he play 150 G, he far outperformed anything he did irl, slashing 336/412/649 with 44 HRs and 125 RBIs.

Hendricks is even more embarrassing–I had remembered, woefully incorrectly, Elrod Hendricks as having a career similar to Cliff Johnson‘s. If Johnson hit 40+ HRs in a sim, I would squint and say, wow, that’s kind of cool. Johnson certainly had that potential, he just never actually did it. But Hendricks never even showed the capacity to do that. In hindsight, I may even have been confusing Hendricks with Elston Howard, to my profound embarrassment.

I have pretty wide tolerances here, fwiw. I think Doug Rader having a career surpassing year (a 135 OPS+ is far higher than Rader had as a full time player) is fine. Rader was a good player, a decent hitter throughout his career. It feels possible. Now, if he does it year over year, there’s an issue. But this kind of outlier year for a player of Rader’s caliber is fine for me. Similarly, Mike Fiore finishing second in the league in walks seems fine: it is his 1969 season, and, if anything, his WBL slash line of 240/405/390 underperforms his real life 274/420/428. Here the challenge is to make sure Fiore, while perhaps better in year 2 and 3 than irl, does indeed fall off a cliff, with the 1969 year an unexplained success.

The Blomberg and Hendricks seasons are just too far outside the pale.

There are a couple of things at work here. First, I need to have a practice of looking at the overperformers more thoroughly. Second, I need to figure out what levers within OOTP to lean on. There are three I know of right now:

• OOTP does allow us to set a usage limit, below which it depresses stats. I have that set at 300 AB for hitters, and could raise it. But that just moves the bar, right? No matter where you put the bar, there will be someone who consistently falls just outside of it.
• Manually reducing ratings. Perfectly fine with this, but not really a fan of it. It’s a little too much of a thumb on the scale for MLB players (I do it for NeL players, but that’s because I use my own MLE’s).
• Injuries. This is the more likely route I would take. If I had recognized just how out of bounds Hendricks and Blomeberg’s performances were, I would have just upped their injury ratings significantly. This keeps an interesting narrative (man, if he could only stay healthy) while retaining a sense of luck (maybe he does stay healthy) while most likely reducing these outlying performances.

So, a pretty important thing to monitor in Year 2, imo.

Smaller Things

Triples & NeL Players

This is sort of a philosophical decision. There are two schools of thought out there. They are, broadly

• NeL baseball (I am using this term to refer to all of the non-MLB environments) was fundamentally different, full of more daring, more speed, more creativity. This resulted in more triples and, perhaps oddly, fewer doubles.

and

• Meh, that’s nonsense for a lot of reasons, and if you are combining these histories, you need to adjust that, essentially increasing 2B and depressing 3B so the overall universe of players is relatively evenly distributed.

Philosphically, I tend towards the latter–I don’t think NeL players were somehow “better at hitting triples,” and I don’t think they were universally faster (although some were each of those things). But practically, as MLE’s are created, the tend towards the former.

Certainly Year I did: 5 of the top 9 leaders in triples were NeL players. But it dropped off to 7 of the top 25 (that ranges from Louis Santop, the league leader with 14 to Pete Hill, one of 8 players who finished the season with 6 three baggers). There may be less here than meets the eye: if it weren’t for the presence of Santop and Josh Gibson (both catchers, of course, but also both under 20 at the start of the season) maybe this doesn’t even get noticed?

Something to track in Year II.

Money Money Money … Money

The initial salaries for the league were totally randomly invented. Turns out they were far too low: FA’s are demanding more in salary than the retained stars. So I just need to fiddle and figure it out. The goal is that each franchise has certain players they have 3-year and 5-year rights to, but those players should have highish comp, I think.

Time & Opportunity Cost

I played every single game. By hand. And only mis-clicked, issuing an intentional walk by mistake, a few times.

I enjoyed doing that. I really like the slow unfolding of the season, and I really like not seeing the AI do inexplicable things to the detriment of some team. I really like being able to massage the two-way players the way I want to. Lots of likes.

But I am not a young man.

At 3 real life years per season, I am unlikely to get more than 10 seasons out of the WBL. Which would barely see the current young players reach their peaks, let alone their retirements.

So I need to do something differently. Maybe not in Year 2, but at some point I’ll have to find a way to move through the seasons more quickly, most likely by playing certain weeks or months via the AI.

AI April? Machine managed May? Something.

Even Smaller Things

NeL Defense

Just a learning curve, need to slightly nerf NeL defense ratings.

Closers

38 saves to lead the league feels a little light. More, the number of closers who actually pitched pretty poorly was a little high, most notably Detroit’s Mike Henneman, who led the league in saves for most of the season. Cleveland’s Terry Adams tied him in the final weak, but Adams’ ERA was 2 runs lower (and his FIP just slightly below 2 runs better). At the same time, both had WHIPs that weren’t great, so … maybe not a real issue? Relievers are weird.

Base 10 Numbering

I don’t know why I started numbering TWIWBL’s with .0. But it made everything a bit more confusing, and starting with these, we’re going to start each series of TWIWBL with .1. Because that’s, you know, normal.