Pretty hard question: nobody expected a playoff run last season, now the fans will demand a repeat, but if the Black Barons can’t address some core offensive issues, that may be unlikely.

Best Case

The pitching continues to dominate, Juan Rincón holds down the closer spot, and either Sam Streeter or Warren Spahn step up to seize the 5th starting spot. On the other side, Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews move into the elite of the league and someone–anyone–steps up to support them.

Worst Case

The pitching falls apart, with Andy Pettitte and Alejandro Peña becoming solid, but no longer world-beaters and the bullpen collapses while the offense continues to be far too slapdash to be dependable.

Key Questions

• How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, Adrián González, Cupid Childs, Jim Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year.
• With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile.
• Who will fill out the roster.

Trade Bait

The Black Barons would happily welcome an offensive star, but would have to mortgage their farm system to get one. Or, mortgage their best starter … which in a bit of a shock, is exactly what they ended up doing. It’s an interesting gambit: a true top of rotation star gone in exchange for a “win-now” bat (but Belle is aging) and a few arms for the future in Lefty Gomez and Frank Viola. We’ll see.

Roster Evaluation

Doesn’t look like a strong playoff contender to me. Now, if 3 to 4 players shift left one column … there’s just so much uncertainty. Six new faces, plus Belle, and while most of them are in reserve roles, it feels like a lot to ask for the Black Barons to repeat last year’s success.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

Whitney, Dolan, Malloy, and Barbour start the season in the WBL (Malloy on the DL, but still). This is very much a make or break year for Flood.

As many as 7 roster spots are up for grabs: 3 bullpen arms (and, conceivably, someone could force their way into the rotation) and every reserve position is up for grabs.

First round pick Joe Torre and 3rd round selection Gary Matthews will both be given a solid shot at making the opening day roster.

Injuries

Bruce Chen will miss the last two weeks of Spring Training with back spasms, but should still make the opening day roster. Last season, Carlos Diaz started the year as the Black Barons’ closer, but promptly pitched his way out of the WBL. His attempt to make the club this season has been thwarted by a ruptured tendon in his pitching hand which will put him on the shelf until after the all-star break.

First Cuts

Aaron Sanchez, Pretzels Getzien, and Rube Melton were all sent down after their early struggles, while Larry Benton has been clearly lowered in the pecking order in camp after his. Slim Embrey, Bruce Ruffin, and Fred Fussell were also returned to the minor league camp.

Those moves allowed two arms–Charlie Morton and Alex Malloy–to remain, despite some roughness in their early outings. Everyone else–other than Andy Pettitte, who has already been named the opening day starter–has thrown well.

Despite a pretty rough start, Joe Torre stays in camp–the privilege of being a high draft pick–with Josh Bard and Earl Battey both heading to the minors, while JP Arencibia is forcing himself into the conversation as well as he and Gene Tenace have hit the ball very well.

Young Trea Turner stays in camp, but the story at 2B has been the performance of Reddy Mack and Marcus Giles, making the next week key for all three of them. Similarly, Andy Pafko and Tommy Davis are on the verge of reversing the franchise’s belief in Pie Traynor, who has struggled not just in Spring Training, but really since about the all star break of last season.

Erick Aybar and slick-fielding George McBride both remain in camp, although neither has hit enough yet to force their way into serious consideration for the reserve SS spot.

Pafko and Davis also play the OF, and their strong starts combined with decent showings from Derrick May and Tommy Holmes continue to make that a crowded position for the Black Barons. Most of the presumed starters have struggled, as has Curt Flood, but for now the only departure from camp is Joe Rudi.

Also being sent down: Shea Hillenbrand, Mike Lamb, Bill Buckner, and Ray Durham.

Frank McCormick is struggling, and could be pushed for his role, but is probably safely assured of a roster spot, as both Jake Beckley and Nate Colbert are smashing the ball so far.

Second Cuts

The pitching staff has been remarkable, with Andy Pettitte‘s 3.86 being the worst ERA posted so far this Spring. Eight hurlers (the injured Bruce Chen along with Cozy Dolan, Greg Maddux, John Malarkey, Alex Malloy, Juan Rincón, Jim Whitney, and Vic Willis) have yet to give up a run. For now, the 19 arms in camp all remain.

Joe Torre clearly needs some time in the minors, so the Black Barons recalled Manny Piña for a look while Torre tries to get back on track.

Frank McCormick is barely hanging on, as the trio of Adrián González, Jake Beckley, and Nate Colbert are pounding the ball while McCormick has an OPS below .400.

Ray Durham and Trea Turner both head down, along with defensive whiz George McBride.

The OF continues to be a mess, as Tommy Davis and Andy Pafko are hitting very well while projected starters Billy Southworth, Curtis Granderson, and Hank Aaron are in deep slumps.

Third Cuts

Ps Charlie Morton and Bill Phyle were demoted despite decent performances–but when 11 of your pitchers have ERA’s below 2.00, someone has to go.

They were joined by C Manny Piña, 1B Nate Colbert, 2B Reddy Mack, SS Erick Aybar, and OF Derrick May.

With 19 year old Marcus Giles clearly not ready for the WBL, Mack’s demotion leaves the Black Barons without a suitable reserve 2B. Both Omar Infante–who can play 5 positions–and veteran Manny Trillo were recalled, but this also may be addressed by a trade.

Birmingham still has 9 OFers in camp. The only one performing well is Andy Pafko, but Bob Nieman, Curtis Granderson, and Hank Aaron are pretty much guaranteed roster spots.

Final Cuts

The various trades did little to clarify the roster, and the Black Barons will be releasing some players who have performed quite well in camp, starting with OF Tommy Holmes.

The 2B situation is weird. Cupid Childs is the starter, but they need more than Hank Aaron behind him. Marcus Giles remains a longshot to break camp, leaving the Black Barons with recently acquired Jess Barbour, who is sort of a super utility type, Omar Infante, or Manny Trillo. So there are a lot of folks who play 2B, just none that do it very competently. Infante’s WBL experience, as well as his ability to help out in CF, keeps him in camp for now with Trillo heading down.

Veteran OF David Justice, brought over as part of the Albert Belle trade, will start the year in AAA as will CF Curt Flood, who was unable to do enough during the Spring despite the team’s desire for him to supplant Curtis Granderson.

The team placed Harley Young on the DL to start the season, but is still waiting for the medical staff to assess Alex Malloy, Sam Streeter, and Bruce Chen (John Malarkey is due back from his injury tomorrow). As such they’ll be given some grace on the goal of getting down to 30. In fact, if all of the injuries are even somewhat serious, they’ll be recalling some arms from the minors to supplement.

Despite a strong Spring, JP Arencibia fell short in a bid to take Jim Pagliaroni‘s roster spot. The Black Barons have decided to go without a decent glove at 2B, deciding that Omar Infante‘s offensive shortcomings are too much to overcome. This does keep–surprisingly for both–Marcus Giles and Jess Barbour in camp for the time being. Tommy Davis and Ginger Beaumont were also sent down.

The Black Barons staff has been so strong all Spring that the final cuts were bound to be somewhat controversial. Warren Spahn was the first to head to AAA. John Clarkson refused to head to AAA, leading to his release. Cozy Dolan went down as well, although the 21 year old should be among the first recalls should Birmingham need him.

Frank McCormick was sent down, in something of a surprise, as was Marcus Giles, who really impressed in Spring Training but really needs regular playing time to develop. Jess Barbour‘s spectacular Spring makes a lot of choices a little easier, as his defensive versatility counts for a lot.

Barbour and Albert Belle‘s arrive, combined with the performance of Andy Pafko, also allowed Birmingham to let both Pie Traynor and Billy Southworth head to the minors.

This is being posted after the draft–meaning after a huge influx of unproven young talent. More on that shortly–much more. For the award winners listed here, I’ve included rankings on the top prospect list, but those numbers would, of course, been higher when these awards were bestowed (that is, before the draft).

And, of course, many of the award winners are too old to be considered prospects.

I’ve also included some notes about some of the winners, hopefully setting up some future storylines.

AAA

AAA Gold Gloves

P – Blondie Purcell (Seattle / Portland)
C – Hal King (Milwaukee / Chicago)
1B – Eddie Murray (Washington / Baltimore) [#26]
2B – Bobby Knoop (Buffalo / Cleveland)
3B – Tim Wallach (Las Vegas / Los Angeles)
SS – George McBride (Atlanta / Birmingham)
LF – Joe Rudi (Atlanta / Birmingham) [#200]
CF – Lance Johnson (Milwaukee / Chicago)
RF – Paul Waner (Louisville / Homestead) [#47]

AAA Reliever of the Year

Adam Russell (St. Louis / Kansas City) swept all 20 first place votes after posting 25 saves and a 1.42 ERA for St. Louis. Russell was passable in Kansas City, and should find a spot in their bullpen next season.

AAA Platinum Sticks

C – Cliff Lee (Seattle / Portland)
1B – Kevin Young (Louisville / Homestead)
2B – Juan Samuel (Norfolk / Philadelphia)
3B – Jung Ho Kang (Columbus / House of David)
SS – Cal Ripken, Jr. (Washington / Baltimore) [#29]
LF – Merv Rettenmund (St. Louis / Kansas City) [#71]
CF – Benny Kauff (Hartford / New York Gothams)
RF – Al Kaline (Toronto / Detroit) [#15]
DH – Chick Stahl (Washington / Baltimore)

An interesting list. Kaline has established himself at the WBL level and both Kauff and Samuel excelled in limited opportunities, making them likely to receive roster spots for the coming season.

Kang, on the other hand, struggled at the WBL over several opportunities.

Of the rest, Ripken is probably the most likely to see WBL time, although he is blocked at Baltimore at both SS and 3B.

AAA Pitcher of the Year

Virgil Trucks (Cincinnati / Indianapolis) swept the first place votes and dominated the award after going 10-8 with a 2.72 ERA at AAA. Unfortunately, he was hit pretty hard, with an ERA over 5.00, in 17 games for Indianapolis. Still, the talent is clearly there for the 26 year old.

AAA MVP

The MVP Award was a bit closer, with St. Louis’ Rettenmund and Montréal (Ottawa)’s Bob Watson [#52] having strong showings in the voting. But both were well out-distanced by Hartford’s Benny Kauff who slammed 39 homeruns and slashed 303/370/600 to take home the honor. Kauff is 28, clearly no longer a prospect, but he hit so well both over the final 2 weeks of the season and into the postseason that the Gothams are pretty much forced to find time for him.

AA

AA Gold Gloves

P – Ricky Bones (Tulsa/ Memphis)
C – Tucker Barnhart (Rochester / Cleveland) [#358]
1B – Mike Squires (Madison / Chicago)
2B – Dick Green (Sacramento / San Francisco)
3B – Lee Tannehill (Vancouver / Portland)
SS – Eddie Miller (Sacramento / San Francisco)
LF – Hub Collins (Fort Wayne / Detroit) [#451]
CF – Kirby Puckett (Vancouver / Portland) [#126]
RF – Darrell Miller (Madison/ Chicago)

AA Reliever of the Year

Bill Harper (Austin / Houston) [#202] had 14 saves and a 0.97 ERA at AA, earning the award as the league’s top reliever. He struggled a bit at AAA later in the season, but still did enough to dominate the lower level. At only 22, Harper probably has another year or two of minor league time ahead of him.

AA Platinum Sticks

C – Frankie Hayes (Vancouver / Portland)
1B – Prince Fielder (Atlantic City / Philadelphia) [#127]
2B – Dave Cash (Oklahoma City / Kansas City) [#101]
3B – Jimmie Foxx (Sacramento / San Francisco) [#211]
SS – Joe Sewell (Rochester / Cleveland) [#88]
LF – George Burns (Troy / New York Gothams)
CF – John Briggs (Jersey City / Brooklyn) [#80]
RF – Willie Crawford (Tulsa / Memphis) [#311]
DH – Billy Nash (Fort Wayne / Detroit) [#201]

Briggs shocked observers, excelling in Brooklyn after making the jump directly from AA. Of the rest of these, Foxx looks set to be a bench player for San Francisco and Burns may see time in the OF for Ottawa (he was traded to them mid season).

AA Pitcher of the Year

Jeremy Sowers [#271] of Fort Wayne was named the AA Pitcher of the Year after his 13-4, 3.05 season. He looks fine, but doesn’t project as much more than a back of rotation arm eventually.

AA MVP

Tulsa’s teenage sensation Willie Crawford (334/440/556) and Jersey City’s John Briggs, who basically matched his AA production of 315/437/518 after being recalled to Brooklyn, received more attention this season, but the MVP award for AA goes to Fort Wayne’s Billy Nash, who slashed 315/383/595 on the season.

Nash is only 20, so look for another year in the minors, perhaps on the fringes of Detroit’s WBL roster.

Troy’s George Burns and Nashville (Indianapolis)’s George Foster [#98] also received first place votes.