Progress. Finishing over .500 with some clarity on long-term talent would be a success for next year.

Best Case

The roster stabilizes, and a handful of talent establishes itself as the core of future years. Napolean Lajoie and Honus Wagner settle in at 2B and SS respectively, and the OF talent clarifies. And, anyone reliable steps forward on the mound. Anyone.

Worst Case

Nothing settles, nobody figures it out, and the pitching continues to be miserable.

Key Questions

• Who pitches?
• For a team without top end talent, there are a surprising number of logjams (Davey Johnson and Lajoie and even the ageless Jeff Kent at 2B; Rick Reichardt and Willie Stargell at LF; Roberto Clemente, Andy Van Slyke, and Owen “Don’t Call Me Chief” Wilson in RF).

Trade Bait

Will the team hit it stride in time for Stargell to contribute? If not, he could be an attractive piece for a competitive team.

Roster Evaluation

So. Much. Talent. So little production. Even with that, though, the presence of anything approaching average pitching makes the Grays a .500 team.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

Hope for the Grays persists, largely in how dense and deep their system is. 16 prospects in the top 200 bodes well for their future.

Up to nine spots on the mound are up for grabs, including 3 rotation slots. Positional depth needs to be resolved in the lineup. Second round draft pick Judy Johnson will be given every shot to seize the 3B job.

Injuries

Daniel Hudson has missed most of camp so far, but might be back to show enough to make the opening day roster.

First Cuts

With 28 pitchers starting off in camp, Homestead clearly had a lot of work to do, with many decisions destined to be made on very limited data. Here’s who didn’t make the cut after the first week of Spring Training: starters Pink Hawley, Clayton Kershaw, John Candelaria, and Hal Carlson and relievers Mychal Givens, Ed Seward, and Ricardo Rincón.

With that many arms still in camp, the Grays only moved one C, Tim Thompson, out of camp, along with 3B’s Freddie Lindstrom and Brock Holt. Judy Johnson is hitless so far, but has impressed the coaching staff enough to stick around a little more.

Impressive starts from Rey Sáncehz and Jack Wilson at SS have forced Dick Groat out of camp, while Rennie Stennett remains, largely on the bases of his performances towards the end of last season. Jeff Kent has also been impressive, although Davey Johnson remains the presumptive starter at 2B.

Paul Waner is tearing the cover off the ball, but his brother Lloyd is hitless, meanings the siblings will be separated with Llyod heading back to the minors, along with CF Darren Lewis. That’s left a crowded OF still pretty clogged: Ralph Kiner has impressed with his power, Max Carey with his speed, and Goose Goslin is barely holding onto a spot. Of those three plus the remaining Waner, there looks to be–at most–a single roster spot available.

Second Cuts

Only 4 pitchers–Gary Lucas, Gary Nash, Ray Brown, and Bartolo Colón–have ERA’s over 2. Of those, Brown and Colón will be given some more time, but both Nash and Lucas were shipped off to the minors. That still leaves a ton of arms in camp, so something will have to give over the next week.

C Tim Thompson was shipped out. Rick Ferrell probably should be, but his defense and his WBL experience keeps him around for now.

18 year old Judy Johnson turned some heads with his defense, but needs some time in the minors. The Grays recalled Pedro Feliz for depth at 3B.

Goose Goslin and Max Carey were also sent down, although Carey was recalled a few days later, just to provide another glove in CF.

The Grays are in an interesting spot: a host of players who were assumed to not have much chance to make the team are performing fantastically, led by Ps Doug Drabek and Cliff Lee and position players Ed Kranepool, Paul Waner, Jeff Kent, Rey Sánchez, Chris Sabo, Cam Carreón, and Jack Wilson. This has created some unanticipated competition, keeping camp crowded but also making the next week quite crucial.

Third Cuts

Homestead continues to retool their pitching staff, with Bartolo Colón‘s poor Spring sending him to the minors along with Arodys Vizcaíno and Ping Gardner. Other than Francisco Liriano as their opening day starter and Josh Lindblom as their closer, though, nothing on the staff is settled.

The backup C slot continues to be challenging: Del Crandall has been spectacular, but doesn’t offer much defensively. Cam Carreón was demoted, but Peaches Graham and Rick Ferrell remain in the mix with Crnadall behind Josh Gibson.

Pedro Feliz, Max Carey, and Ralph Kiner were all sent down as well. That still leaves 1B and the OF overcrowded, and the Grays’ obsession with Rennie Stennett needs to probably come to an end. Owen Wilson and Davey Johnson–both essentially guaranteed roster spots due to their performance last year–are struggling mightily while Ed Kranepool, Rey Sánchez, and Jeff Kent are all tearing the cover off the ball.

Final Cuts

Needing to thin out the competition for the backup C role, Peaches Graham is the first to head down to the minors, followed by Rennie Stennett and Jack Wilson as the Grays tried to figure out their infield.

Cliff Lee‘s demotion to AAA was Homestead’s first step towards clarifying their staff for opening day. But that was as far as they got in the drive to cut to 30, as Del Crandall‘s Spring performance sent Rick Ferrell down, and two players with excellent Springs–Paul Waner and Ed Kranepool–were also sent down to receive steady ABs at AAA.

Babe Adams and the impressive teenager Catfish Hunter were both sent to the minors along with Jeff Kent, who had an excellent Spring but at 37 is not part of the Grays’ plans.

Earl Hamilton was the final cut from the pitching staff, leaving the Grays with a nasty set of choices. In the end, it came down to prized prospect Napolean Lajoie, incumbent 2B Davey Johnson, of OF sub extraordinaire Owen Wilson. The Grays, in a move met with much skepticism, decided to hand the 2B position to Lajoie, sending Johnson to AAA.

Overall

With a .500 record predicted before the season, the Grays’ season is a bit of a disappointment: nobody could have seen the amount of talent they have on the mound performing so poorly.

This is a team building for 2, maybe 3 or 4, years down the road, so there a ton of unanswered questions that bear watching.

What Went Right

If you had Mike Epstein and Rick Reichardt on your bingo card for best players on the Grays before the season started, you’re a savant. But they were easily the best hitters over the course of the season (Epstein finished with an OPS just shy of .950; Reichardt just over .900).

Two players–OFs Andy Van Slyke and Owen “Don’t Call Me Chief” Wilson–were basically as good as those two in about a half season of work each.

Josh Gibson declared himself a superstar of the future, with an OPS of .833 as a 20 year old catcher. Davey Johnson was solid at 2B.

Rennie Stennett showed enough in 20 games to earn a look next year.

Willie Stargell has a ton of power.

Francisco Liriano was a good starter for most of the season, and Bob Friend was even better, but only put in 88 innings. Earl Hamilton was decent enough to warrant another look.

Josh Lindblom responded to losing the closer job excellently, earning it back and cementing his role for next season. Rick Ownbey and Dave Giusti surprised, pitching quite well in limited opportunities.

ALL STAR SELECTIONS
1B Mike Epstein; C Josh Gibson

What Went Wrong

The left side of the infield was a bit of a mess: Honus Wagner has all the talent in the world, and the Grays seem committed to him at SS long term, but he neither hit nor adapted to the position very well. And everyone else given a chance (other than Stennett) struggled mightily: Chris Sabo, Frank Taveras, Jack Wilson, Jeff Kent, and Pedro Feliz.

Roberto Clemente and Andrew McCutcheon were … fine. But the Grays really need one of them–if not both–to take a major step forward.

Willie Stargell only has a ton of power, and struck out nearly 200 times.

Nobody else that was given a chance to join the rotation was any good (Billy Pierce, Corey Kluber, Hal Carlson), and most were quite bad (Carlos Zambrano, Ray Brown, Cliff Lee, Babe Adams, John Candelaria).

Michael Jackson imploded entirely in the second half of the year.

Trade Evaluations

March

None

June

IF Phil Garner to San Francisco for IF Steve Hertz & 2nd Round Pick {Judy Johnson}

Given Garner’s age, getting anything for him seems fine.

July

P Vean Gregg & 5th Round Pick to New York Gothams for P Travis Bowyer, OF Mike Shannon & 4th Round Pick {Pink Hawley}

I mean … it’s weird for a team this desperate for pitching to trade away pitching.

IF Arky Vaughan & 3rd Round Pick to Cleveland for IF Nap Lajoie, P Arodys Vizcaíno & 1st Round Pick {Ralph Kiner}

An absolute win. Moving Vaughan clears the way for Wagner, the Grays hope Lajoie can move to 2B over time, plus the potential of Kiner.

Looking Forward

SP

So. Much. Need. Only Ray Brown looks to be around long term, and he needs to get much better. There are useful pieces here, and Cliff Lee has a very live arm, but this is the most pressing need for the Grays organization.

RP

Some talent in the minors, with Daniel Hudson and Mychal Givens standing out especially.

C

Josh Gibson has superstar written all over him.

1B

How much do you believe in Mike Epstein? Willie Stargell will see some time here as well.

2B

The Grays are hoping that Nap Lajoie can hold this down long term.

3B

Very unsure. Chris Sabo and Freddie Lindstrom are in the minors, but this looks to be pretty vacant.

SS

There is a lot of pressure on Honus Wagner to succeed at shortstop: he clearly has the athletic skill to make the transition.

LF

How much do you believe in Rick Reichardt?

CF

Andrew McCutchen and Max Carey each have shown some tools, but this could be an upgrade spot for the Grays.

RF

Roberto Clemente seems to have this locked down, but there are voices in the organization that think Paul Waner could unseat him.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

With the 4th overall pick, the Grays took the highest ceiling pitcher available, Clayton Kershaw.

Their 2nd pick in the 1st round was a bit of a surprise, and may answer the question of how much do you believe in Rick Reichardt as the Grays took franchise player Ralph Kiner. Kiner will play LF, but is probably 2-3 years away from the majors, giving the organization time to sort out its OF. I would expect the rest of their draft to focus more on needs–pitching, pitching, pitching and perhaps a 3B.

In the 2nd Round, that began with Tim Lincecum and continued with franchise pick 3B Judy Johnson, who should only accelerate Wagner’s move to SS. Homestead had no picks in the 3rd round, but 2 in the 4th. The first of those went to 3B Howard Johnson. That should give them some pieces to work with at 3B, so look for Homestead to load up on pitching for most of the rest of the draft, beginning with their last pick of the 4th round, Pink Hawley.

Rounds 5-8

Pitchers beware, Homestead is coming for you: Ed Seward is the Grays’ final exemption, followed by Johnny Morrison and Ping Gardner.

Rounds 9-12

P Nip Winters, OF Dave Hoskins; P Gary Lucas; and IF Liover Peguero.

Andrew McCutcheon had 4 hits and Roberto Clemente and Davey Johnson had 3 each leading a 10-6 victory over Chicago. McCutcheon and Clemente both went deep, and John Candelaria, Dave Giusti, and Josh Lindblom combined for 3 innings of 1-hit relief to cement the victory, which went to Carlos Zambrano, who leveled his record at 6-6 on the year.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

With its minor league teams finishing their seasons, the ABC’s recalled Pete Rose, Robin Ventura, and Virgil Trucks from AAA.

The ABC’s lashed 13 hits in an 8-2 win over Houston. Joey Votto and Ed Charles had 3 hits each, with Votto driving in 3 runs, 2 coming on his 6th homerun of the season. Willie Mitchell put in a solid 6-plus innings for the win, and Francisco Cordero and Lefty James closed out the game with hitless relief for Indianapolis.

#New York Black Yankees

The Black Yankees filled out their 32 man roster by recalling 2B Willie Randolph.

The Grays continue to try to figure out their middle infield of the future, recalling Rennie Stennett from AA and Nap Lajoie–their prize acquisition from the final trading period–from AAA, sending Bill Mazeroski and Jack Wilson back down.

Chief Wilson had 4 hits–2 doubles and a triple–leading the Grays to a 5-4 win over Kansas City. John Candelaria improved to 3-1 with a solid start and Josh Lindblom picked up his 13th save.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Johnny Cueto had one of his best starts of the year–7 innings, 3 hits, and only 1 run–but the ABC’s needed a pinch-hit, walkoff double from Hal Morris to win the game after a very rough outing from Clay Carroll let Baltimore back into the contest.

#New York Black Yankees

Ron Guidry‘s return from the DL pushes AJ Burnett back to AAA, although probably only until rosters expand next week.

Guidry’s return was triumphant: 6 innings of 1 run ball in a blowout, 17-2 win over Philadelphia. Eric Davis, Babe Ruth, and Albert Belle each had 3 hits and Lou Gehrig drove in 5 runs. Belle and Mickey Mantle went deep in the romp which, most importantly of all, moved the Black Yankees into a tie for first place in the Effa Manley Division.

In a rain-shortened game, Waite Hoyt improved to 10-6 on the year with a 7-inning, 2-hit shutout as the Black Yankees topped the Stars 3-0.

Ruth hit 2 homeruns–his league-leading 40th and 41st of the year–as the Black Yankees continued their run, beating Philadelphia 5-3 behind a good start from Jamie Moyer and another save from Aroldis Chapman.

#Philadelphia Stars

3 hits from Willie Davis and another 3 from George Hendrick (who added 4 RBIs) weren’t enough, as the Stars fell to the Black Yankees 8-5. The game might have thrown Philadelphia’s rotation into a bit of chaos as starter Jaret Wright was injured, forcing both Don Carman (who gave up 3 runs in a single inning to take the loss) and Pete Alexander into relief duty.

Wright will miss the rest of the season, heading to the DL with a torn meniscus. Robin Roberts was recalled from AAA for the Stars.

Bill Dahlen was injured in the opening game of a doubleheader against the Gothams. After the twinbill, Dahlen hit the DL with Bill Knickerbocker returning to the big leagues.

The Spiders found themselves in need of a starter, forcing them to send Bob Feller to AAA temporarily, with Hank Gastright being recalled for the start. Gastright was exceptional, allowing 4 hits and 1 run through 7 while striking out 6. Solo homeruns from 4 Spiders (John Ellis, Ron Blomberg, Jake Stahl, and–shockingly–Jim Gantner) were all he needed as the Spiders won 4-1 with Terry Adams picking up his 29th save.

#Homestead Grays

Mike Epstein hit 2 homeruns and drove in 4 as the Grays beat Ottawa 8-6.

With Honus Wagner out for the rest of the year, the Grays recalled 22 year old Frank Taveras from AA. Andy Van Slyke will become the everyday 3B in Wagner’s absence, with Jack Wilson getting the bulk of the action at SS.

Roberto Clemente had 4 hits, nudging his average close to .300, and Epstein added 3 as the Grays topped Ottawa, 9-5. John Candelaria overcame a rough start to improve his record to 2-1, making a case to remain in the Homestead rotation.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Jake Stenzel‘s 4 hits brought his batting average up to .300, but weren’t enough as Indianapolis dropped a 7-5 decision to Chicago in 12 innings.

Virgil Trucks was demoted to AAA with Tony Mullane next in line to get a shot in the ABC’s 6-man rotation.

Tommy Helms and Joe Morgan both picked up knocks, sending Helms to the DL with Barry Larkin being recalled to Indianapolis.

Mel Harder moves into the rotation, replacing the injured Whit Wyatt, a move which is sure to disappoint the fan base that was hoping for a major pitching acquisition at the deadline. They’ll have to be satisfied with the recall of Bob Feller, who is far, far too good for AAA, with Ken Schrom being returned.

The fan base may be appeased by the arrival of SS Arky Vaughan from Homestead, who may give the Spiders the best top-to-bottom lineup in the league. Vaughan’s arrival sent Bill Knickerbocker to AAA and moved Bill Dahlen to the role of defensive replacement.

Sudden Sam McDowell was returned to AAA as Yordano Ventura was recalled from a rehab assignment after missing a couple months through injury.

#Homestead Grays

John Candelaria and Ray Brown were recalled from AAA, with Candelaria sliding into the rotation. More dramatically, Arky Vaughan‘s departure means the team is committing to the idea that Honus Wagner can make the transition to SS, which also opens the door for Andy Van Slyke and Chief Wilson to see more time, given how well they have hit over recent weeks (Van Slyke is currently slashing 404/436/649, Wilson 392/395/747–clearly neither is sustainable).

Tom Brown was sent to AAA, as the Grays needed another SS (Jack Wilson).

Rick Reichardt had 2 homeruns and 5 RBIs in a topsy-turvey, 8-6 win over Indianapolis. Mike Epstein and Wagner also went deep in the contest.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Doc Hoblitzell was returned to AAA with Virgil Trucks, Francisco Cordero, and Octavio Dotel heading up to AAA. The ABC’s have quite a few pitchers who have struggled in Indianapolis and dominated in Cincinnati, so we’ll see how that goes.

Oscar Charleston had 3 hits, 2 of which were triples, but the ABC’s were unable to hold on to several leads, losing 8-6 to Homestead.

#New York Black Yankees

Well, we’ll see. They certainly added some bullpen arms, whether it’s enough quality is yet to be determined. Lady Baldwin and Dave Righetti were returned to AAA, clearing the room for Aroldis Chapman (who slides directly into the closer slot), Dick Tidrow, and Rheal Cormier. Jamie Moyer slides into the back of the rotation.

Waite Hoyt broke out of a slump in a big way, with a complete game victory over the Gothams, allowing 4 hits and 1 run while striking out 3 and not walking a batter. Mickey Mantle and Eric Davis went deep for the Black Yankees as Hoyt improved to 9-6.

#Philadelphia Stars

As important as any trade, the Stars will get Pete Alexander back from injury at some point in the next week after a quick rehab assignment. In the meantime, Hardie Henderson was brought up to deepen the bullpen and Tim Belcher may get another start or two until Alexander returns.

Slugging OF Aaron Judge was recalled from AAA. Wayne Gomes was sent to AAA, with Alexander making his long awaited return.

John Candelaria–just promoted to the rotation–hits the DL with a strained bicep. Bartolo Colón, who has struggled so far in the big leagues, but threw well at AAA, was recalled. The next day, Kent Tekulve strained a bicep, landing on the DL for a couple weeks, with Bob Friend recalled from AAA.

#New York Black Yankees

Vic Raschi was sent down, with Jack Chesbro coming up to take the final start before the all-star break. Chesbro did well enough for the win, as Don Mattingly tied a WBL record with 5 runs scored while hitting 2 homeruns and driving in 3 to lead the Black Yankees to a 14-3 win over Los Angeles to close out the first half of the season.

#Philadelphia Stars

Needing a starter for their final game before the all-star break, Philadelphia sent Robin Roberts to AAA, recalling Bill Laskey and releasing Dusty Baker.

John Ellis drove in 5 with 2 homeruns, one a grand slam, and Cy Young threw a complete game allowing only 6 hits as the Spiders beat Miami, 6-2. Young improved to 5-2 on the year.

#Homestead Grays

Hal Carlson will miss just over a month with an elbow injury, prompting Homestead to recall Billy Pierce from AAA. More from necessity than a reward for their performance, both Carlos Zambrano and John Candelaria returned to the starting rotation for the Grays.

Francisco Liriano was recalled from his rehab assignment, with Bartolo Colon returning to AAA.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Edd Roush went 4-for-4 and Red Faber threw a solid 6+ innings, improving his record to 4-3 as the ABC’s beat the best team in the WBL, Baltimore, 4-2. Roush hit his 2nd homerun of the season and Joe Morgan his 1st, and Rob Dibble pitched a scoreless 9th for his 7th save.

Johnny Bench hit 2 homeruns, and the ABC’s beat the Black Sox 3-1, with Dolf Luque out-dueling Dennis Martinez. Luque improved to 4-5 with 7 strong innings, and Dibble struck out the side for his 8th save of the season.

#New York Black Yankees

New York’s Waite Hoyt started off their series against Philadelphia with a 4 hit shutout, his best performance of the year. Eric Davis and Don Mattingly hit homeruns, and Thurman Munson, Babe Ruth, and Mattingly had 2 hits each as the Black Yankees won, 4-0.

3 hits from Davis, Lou Gehrig, and most surprisingly of all, Willie Randolph–who got his average up to .200 on the day–led the Black Yankees to a 10-3 win over the Stars. Jack Scott improved to 5-3 with 8 strong innings of work for New York.

#Philadelphia Stars

George Hendrick hit 2 homeruns to lead the Stars to a victory over the New York Black Yankees. Perhaps more importantly for Philadelphia, Jaret Wright only allowed 1 run in 7 innings in leveling his record at 2-2.

Ron Blomberg had 3 hits and 4 RBIs, leading the Spiders to an opening game victory over the New York Gothams, 9-4. Cleveland OF Johnny Bates had an odd day: 3 walks and 2 sacrifice bunts, meaning he walked up to the plate 5 times without an official at-bat. The win went to Cy Young, now 3-2, and Doug Corbett pitched 2 scoreless innings to close it out for his first save.

Nap Lajoie and Evan Longoria were both sent to AAA to try to get their swings on track. IF Bobby Knoop and OF Kenny Lofton were recalled to Cleveland. The challenge for the Spiders remains juggling playing time at DH/C/1B, with Blomberg, Louis Santop, John Ellis, and Jake Stahl among their better contributors.

#Homestead Grays

Earl Hamilton moved into the starting rotation, but the fifth slot remains up in the air, with Carlos Zambrano recovering a bit from his early season struggles and John Candelaria not showing enough to stake a solid claim. Cliff Lee was sent to AAA. With a slash line of 162/311/216, Peaches Graham should be joining him, but there aren’t a lot of options in the minors, and Graham’s ability to get on base has some value, especially given how limited his role is as Josh Gibson‘s backup.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Lefty James will miss about 3 weeks with a sore elbow, which is a blow to the Indianapolis bullpen as the lefty was 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Octavio Dotel was promoted from AAA to take James’ place.

Clay Carroll has been struggling in his bullpen role, but not enough to warrant demotion, at least not until the ABC’s learn more about what they have in Dotel. 3B has been a problem spot for Indianapolis all season. Chase Headley‘s demotion to AAA hands the fulltime job to Ed Charles, but it’s not clear that’s a long-term solution. Barry Larkin was recalled to take Headley’s spot, but he’s more likely to pressure Davey Concepcion at SS than to challenge for the 3B job.

#New York Black Yankees

Jack Scott opened the series against Houston with a 6-hit shutout victory, 4-0. Mickey Mantle, Albert Belle, and Thurman Munson each had 2 hits, with Munson extending his hitting streak to 21 games.

In a game that saw Munson’s hitting streak end at 22 games, the Black Yankees clawed their way back to a walk-off win in 12 innings. Babe Ruth plated Derek Jeter with a hit through the drawn-in infield to give Goose Gossage his 3rd victory on the season. Gossage, Ralph Citarella, and Dellin Betances combined for 5 innings of 1-hit relief after a strong start from Waite Hoyt. Belle had 3 hits, Ruth and Jeter 2 each.

The recent dip in form by the Black Yankees has revived the question of what to do with Willie Randolph and Craig Counsell, neither of whom are hitting well enough to justify a big league roster spot. The challenge is that there really aren’t any options, especially with New York carrying 12 pitchers. Aaron Hill was promoted to AAA, and if he does well there, he may replace Counsell on the big league roster shortly.

#Philadelphia Stars

Led by Buck Freeman‘s 7th homerun of the year and Robin Roberts‘ best start, the Stars put together walk-off, 3-2 victory over Brooklyn. The win went to Bob McClure in relief of Roberts, and was sealed by an RBI single from Sherm Lollar, scoring Scott Rolen.

The top of Philadelphia’s lineup–Chase Utley and Gavvy Cravath–went 5-for-9 with 3 runs scored and 5 RBIs, leading the Stars over Brooklyn, 11-3. Utley, Sherry Magee, and Rico Carty all homered, and Ray Collins improved to 5-2 on the season with John Montgomery Ward throwing 3+ scoreless innings for his second save of the season.

Philadelphia is in a hard situation with Bill Dickey at C and Mickey Doolin at SS, both of whom are stretching credulity on how much defensive value a player can add. Both Dickey and Doolin carry OPS’ below .500, but for now both retain their jobs. The Stars would love recently recalled Jimmy Rollins to show more offensively to push Doolin, but so far, no luck.