Overall

What a surprising year in Philadelphia!

This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.

It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.

It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.

The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.

The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).

What Went Right

We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.

Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.

Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.

At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.

Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.

At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.

Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.

ALL STARS

Hardie Henderson
Aaron Judge
Charles Rogan

MAJOR AWARDS

Willie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove

RECOGNITIONS

Fred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team

ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Charles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite

Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.

The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.

Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.

Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.

There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.

Transactions

March

None.

July

P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.

It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).

August

P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.

This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.

OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. Why not.

Positional Overview

C

Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.

There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.

1B

This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.

Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.

2B

It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.

There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.

Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.

LF/RF

RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.

There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.

CF

This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.

This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.

And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.

DH

The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.

SP

Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.

The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.

Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.

RP

Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?

That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

The Stars could make a move for a 2B, or even a CF. But really their future is wrapped up in the continued development of their current talent.

The starting pitchers were selected as much from who was rested as anything else, with Nip Winters (AAA, HOM) starting for the USA and Mélido Pérez (A, PHI) for the International side.

Winters struggled immediately, with Asdrúbal Cabrera (AAA, BAL) and Melky Cabrera (A, BBB) starting the game with a double and a single, putting runners at 1st and 3rd with no outs. Jorge Orta (AAA, CAG) drove in one, and Xander Bogaerts (AA, LAA) 2 with a double, giving the World Team and early 3-0 lead.

Pérez pitched 2 scoreless, but José Lima (A, MCG) struggled in the 3rd, giving up an RBI double to Ed Delahanty (A, BRK), who came around to score on a passed ball (Bert Campaneris (AAA, MCG) started at C for the World Team, followed by Heliodoro Hidalgo (A, KCM)–they seemed to make the most sense).

That made it 3-2, but Campaneris–clearly trying to make up for his struggles as a backstop,–took Ed Seward (A, MCG) deep in the 4th, putting the World up, 4-2. Bobby Abreu (AAA, PHI) did the same to Al Orth (AA, OTT) in the 5th, and the lead was 5-2, with the World side seeming to be cruising.

But all-star games are odd, right? There’s no continuity on the mound, and a few bad pitches can change everything. Enter Tom Harrison (A, HOD) for the World Team. One run scored on a wild pitch and Dave Malarcher (AA, HOD) drove in another, and Harrison gave way to Luis Tiant, Sr (A, MCG). Tiant gave up back-to-back homeruns, the first a 3-run job by Ralph Kiner (A, HOM), followed by a solo shot from Joe Torre (AAA, BBB).

And the game flipped, with the USA now on top, 8-5.

And that was it. Bill Harper (AA, HOU) pitched 2 excellent innings, and Billy Muffett (AAA, CLE) worked out of a little trouble in the 9th, and the USA walked away with the win.

Led by Abreu and Bogaerts, who had 3 each, the World outhit the USA 13-7. But Kiner’s shot proved too much to overcome, and he walked away with the Game MVP honors.

USA 8 (Harper W; Muffett Sv) @ World 5 (Tiant Sr L)
HRs: USA – Torre, Kiner; World – Campaneris, Abreu
Box Score

We’ve entered June, so we’re clearly heading towards our midseason stride.

#Awards

Since we cross into June we have a bevy of awards.

In the AL, the New York Black Yankees‘ Babe Ruth was named the Batter of the Month, hitting .347 with 15 homers in May, driving in 34 and scoring 30 times. And look, that’s impressive. But Ruth’s reputation certainly helped him with the honor, given that he had the 3rd best OPS in the AL for the month, trailing behind Miami‘s José Canseco (1.430) and Detroit‘s Ty Cobb (1.429). Canseco also had more homeruns, leading the WBL for the month with 18. Ruth’s RBI and R numbers did lead the league, and it is hard to argue against his numbers.

In the NL, the award went to Ottawa‘s Larry Walker for the second consecutive month. Walker hit .273 with 17 dingers and a whopping 38 RBI, but his selection wasn’t unanimous. Looking at just the major slash stats, his BA was eclipsed by Houston‘s Tony Gwynn, who hit .441 for the month; his OBP by Homestead‘s Josh Gibson, who led the NL with a .480 mark; and Gibson’s teammate Mike Epstein SLG mark of .833 SLG eclipsed Walker’s .818. But Walker’s HR and RBI numbers led the league by a lot, and 38 RBI in 26 games is just remarkable.

The Black Yankees doubled it up, with Ron Guidry winning the AL Pitcher of the Month, going 6-0 with a 1.73 ERA in May while in the NL, Rob Dibble of the Indianapolis ABC‘s was a bit of a surprise selection. Dibble went 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 8 saves, certainly a strong performance. You really can’t quibble with Guidry’s selection, but Dibble was selected over San Francisco‘s Lefty Grove (5-1, 1.18) and Brooklyn‘s Smokey Joe Williams (4-1, 2.16). Homestead’s Josh Lindblom had more saves than Dibble (11 to 8), but Lindblom’s other numbers weren’t nearly as impressive. Still, if it were up to me, the award would have gone to Grove.

There’s just not a lot to say about Julio Rodríguez other than wow. Miami’s surprise starter in CF leaving Spring Training hit .397 with 13 homeruns in the month, earning the AL Rookie of the Month. Over in the NL, the award went to Smokey Joe Williams, who, as mentioned above, was in the running for the overall award, let alone the rookie honor.

Player of the Week Awards were given out as well, although overshadowed by the larger honors for May.

Philadelphia‘s Aaron Judge has continued to develop from his impressive showing last season, and a recent hot streak where he hit .444 with 3 homeruns earned him the NL Player of the Week. Canseco was significantly hotter, hitting .636 with 5 homeruns to earn the AL award for the second consecutive week, perhaps some comfort against being snubbed for the monthly honor for May.

#Team Performance

Last week I wrote The New York Black Yankees and the Indianapolis ABC’s have each gone 8-2 over their last 10 games. This week, it’s still true. New York now leads Cleveland in the Bill James Division by 6.5 games, while Indianapolis has moved into 1st place in the Marvin Miller Division, leading Kansas City by .5 games.

San Francisco has a little more breathing room in the Cum Posey Division, leading Chicago by 5.5 games and the surprising Miami Cuban Giants by 6. The Effa Manley Division is still tight, with all 5 teams separated by only 4.5 games, from Homestead in 1st to Philadelphia and Ottawa in a virtual tie for 5th.

Detroit continues to flounder, going 2-8 in their last 10 games and plummeting to 13.5 games behind the Black Yankees.

#Player Performance

Batters

A shorter list: Ty Cobb is first or second in each of the slash categories, and he, Larry Walker, and José Canseco are all challenging Babe Ruth‘s historical dominance of the league.

Cobb and Tony Gwynn are still well over .400 as the calendar turns to June.

José Canseco (MCG). 304/421/881. 29 HR.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 333/390/611. 7 3B.
Ty Cobb (DET). 420/471/862. 79 H, 28 2B, 4.0 WAR.
Josh Gibson (HOM). 382/447/742. 48 R.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 427/463/683. 85 H.
Pete Hill (HOU). 282/366/505. 8 3B.
Stan Musial (KCM). 312/382/540. 29 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 307/426/743. 66 RBI, 55 R, 44 BB, 3.7 WAR.
Larry Walker (OTT). 318/394/764. 26 HR, 61 RBI.

It often feels like the SB leaders should be handled separately: San Francisco’s Rickey Henderson leads the WBL with 42 steals. Indianapolis’ Bob Bescher has moved into 2nd place with 32 (and only 6 CS) while Ottawa’s Tim Raines has 30. Raines’ struggles at the plate are clearly contributing to his not challenging Henderson this year: while Rickey’s has an OBP just under .400 at .392, Raines is way down at .332.

Pitchers

Starters

Indianapolis’ Luis Padrón leads the league at 9-1, with Houston’s Toad Ramsey (9-2) and the Black Yankees’ Ron Guidry (8-1) close behind. Six pitchers have 7 wins, we’ve only included below the 3 that have only 1 or 2 losses. Also included are all 3 starters with sub-3.00 ERA’s (Ramsey, Philadelphia’s Hardie Henderson, and Los Angeles‘ Doc Gooden).

Frank Castillo (KCM). 7-1, 3.88.
Johnny Cueto (IND). 7-1, 3.43.
Doc Gooden (LAA). 5-4, 2.92.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 7-4, 3.13. 92 IP, 2.7 WAR.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-1, 3.17. 99 K, 3.39 FIP, 2.7 WAR.
Hardie Henderson (PHI). 6-3, 2.83.
Luis Padrón (IND). 9-1, 3.66.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 7-2, 3.94.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 9-2. 2.69. 87 IP, 108 K, 0.93 WHIP, 2.66 FIP, 3.8 WAR.
JM Ward (PHI). 2-1, 3.46. 1.00 WHIP.

Relievers

There really isn’t a dominant closer in the WBL this season–the league leaders in saves have given up a bunch of runs; the dominant performers haven’t been racking up the saves. Indianapolis’ Rob Dibble is probably the best of the group. Kansas City’s Craig Kimbrel, tied with the Black Yankees’ Rheal Cormier for the league lead in Holds, has probably been the best bullpen performer overall so far, and is pushing teammate Jeff Pfeffer for a shot at the closer spot.

13 IP minimum.

Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-0, 2.84. 9 H.
Rob Dibble (IND). 2-1, 3.06. 12 Sv.
Rod Beck (SFS). 2-2, 4.91. 14 Sv.
Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 1-0, 1.10. 1 Sv, 9 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 3-1, 3.80. 15 Sv.
Tug McGraw (HOU). 2-2, 1.26. 1 Sv.
Jeff Pfeffer (KCM). 1-2, 6.16. 12 Sv.

Some mention somewhere should be made of Brooklyn’s Fernando Valenzuela, who is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 4 Holds in over 40 innings. The Royal Giants have a very strong rotation, and Valenzuela is still looking for his first opportunity to step into a starting role.

#Injury Report

Will this week be the long awaited reckoning for Chicago’s Jack Doyle? The return of SS Damian Jackson, expected at the end of the week, may be the final nail in Doyle’s WBL service time.

#A Ball Check In

Wrapping up our 3 week trip through the minors, we’ll examine A ball this week. Given A ball’s focus on youth, we won’t have an age division, instead just presenting the top 2 performers at each position. 100 A PA minimum for batters.

Griffin and Kershaw standout as the only teenagers listed. The Gothams have two 2B listed, although Washington is really spending more time at SS. And, Memphis’ Bill Buckner, although currently out for a couple of weeks through injury, is just dominating the league in most categories. Of this group, he, Kershaw, and Herman are probably the best long term prospects.

What Went Right

Not a helluva lot.

CF Willie Davis, 1B Ted Kluszewski, OF George Hendrick, and 3B Scott Rolen were all solid, with Hendrick pushing into a consistent starting role by mid-season. Davis and Rolen were the only players with decent WAR (3.0 for Davis, 2.9 for Rolen). Only Kluszewski (25) and Buck Freeman (21) had more than 20 homeruns, and Klu led the team in RBI’s with 63 and Freeman in R with 71: scoring runs was just a struggle for the Stars all season long.

Three players made strong impressions late in the season led by a fair distance by OF Aaron Judge who managed a .900 OPS in 130 PA. IFs Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh impressed as well.

Rico Carty started strong, leading the lead in doubles the first few months of the season, but collapsed towards the end–that, combined with his age, puts Carty’s starting position (but not his roster spot) in question.

Ray Collins and Steve Carlton were decent enough in the rotation and the only pitchers with over 2 WAR (Collins 2.9, Carlton 2.3). They were the only pitchers with 30 starts and, even more depressingly, the only pitchers with more than 10 innings and ERA’s under 5.00.

ALL STAR SELECTIONS
P Ron Reed; 3B Scott Rolen

What Went Wrong

Everything else? The middle infield was pretty horrible all year, and nobody really could break out of thoroughly mediocre performances.

Carty ended weak, falling off a cliff on the final months of the season.

And the pitching was thoroughly horrid, from only Robin Roberts having a .500 record (5-5) among the starters to closer Bob Howry having 25 saves, but also getting rocked with an ERA over 6. Injuries didn’t help: Jaret Wright (probably the 3rd most effective starter), Roberts, and Pete Alexander (who was clearly overmatched by the WBL level at age 21, but also has a ton of promise) all missed significant time on the mound.

Trade Evaluations

March

3B Mike Schmidt, SP Cole Hamels to New York Black Yankees for C Bill Dickey, OF Aaron Judge, 1B Prince Fielder

Not bad. Moving Schmidt opened up room for Rolen and Judge looks like the real deal. Dickey was horrible, but at 22 is still a great prospect. Certainly, the loss of Hamels hurt, but he didn’t last with New York, being shipped to Miami in a separate deal.

June

RP Ron Reed to Cleveland for OF Andrew Payne, P Hardie Henderson, OF Darrell Miller, OF Gibby Brack

Reed was an all star for Philadelphia, but fell apart for the Spiders. Henderson looks good, and both Payne and Brack may see WBL time at some point.

July

OF Gavvy Cravath & 2nd Round Pick to Portland for 1B/3B Harmon Killebrew & 1st Round Pick {Dave Stieb}

P Rheal Cormier & 4th Round Pick to New York Black Yankees for P LaTroy Hawkins, P Fritz Coumbe, IF Mike Bordick & 3rd Round Pick {Bill Gatewood}

The Cravath deal was excellent: he was leaving after the season, and Killebrew is a great prospect and the pick turned into one of the better pitching prospects in the draft in Stieb. The other one is a little meh: Coumbe made the WBL by the end of the season, but was unimpressive, although Hawkins has a very live arm.

Looking Forward

SP

Carlton, JM Ward, and Alexander should eventually be a good top 3. They need more depth, both at WBL and throughout the organization.

RP

Howry’s job is in danger, but there are no obvious options. Brad Kilby was good at AAA and Scott Garrelts shows some promise.

C

The job is, once again, Dickey’s to lose, but perhaps another year in the minors is in store for him. If so, this is likely Mike Scoscia and Sherm Lollar splitting time once again.

1B

This is Klu’s until age catches up with him. Cecil Cooper dominated at AAA, and should see some time, especially if Carty’s decline continues.

2B

The Stars would love to see Chase Utley own this, but he’s struggled mightily so far. Juan Samuel‘s end of season heroics have earned him a close look in spring training.

3B

Rolen has this locked down, but the team will need to do something once Killebrew is ready, although Killer is probably more suited to 1B/DH in any case.

SS

Peckinpaugh will get a chance here, but again it’s a spot where the Stars need some more talent, especially if Jimmy Rollins doesn’t show more.

LF

Sherry Magee looks solid here.

CF

This may be the most interesting choice in the organization. Davis was their best player, and 21 year old Richie Ashburn was probably their best prospect. Both are excellent defensively, so the odds are a trade is the most likely solution.

RF

Judge seems to have this locked down, but Bobby Abreu will see some time here as well.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

Philadelphia led off the draft by selecting SP Bullet Joe Rogan, probably the single most WBL-ready prospect available. Rogan should step into the rotation right away. Their 2nd pick in the 1st round was harder, coming down to the future possibilities of IF Trea Turner and more help on the mound. They went with the latter, opting for young RHP Dave Stieb. They continued stockpiling arms, picking up teenager Bruce Hurst and 21 year old Bill Gatewood in the 3rd round.

With Gatewood, the Stars have made four selections, using all four of their franchise exemptions, meaning the rest of their picks for this draft will be players with some historical connection to their franchise.

Rounds 5-8

The Stars will be focusing on adding arms, although IF depth would be fine as well. Since they are out of exceptions, these will all be franchise selections, limiting some of the options. Their picks included OF Milt Thompson (5th), P Odúbel Herrera (6th), OF Rhys Hoskins (7th), and IF Nux James (8th).

Rounds 9-12

At the tail end of the draft, the Stars picked up a reserve C (Todd Pratt), P Chris Archer; P Mélido Pérez; and P Jim McElroy.