Overall

Wow. From first place to a very, very distant last place in a single season.

Portland is a young team with a lot of good talent, but they remain a few years away from really coming together. There are some pieces that are good enough that, if they take leaps forward, could carry the entire team (Walter Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr come to mind), but the most likely thing is another year of slogging as they figure it out.

Johnson, Griffey, Jr, Joseíto Muñoz, Bert Blyleven, Joe Mauer, and Johan Santana are all 23 or younger, so there is some real hope here.

Most of the issues are on the offensive side, where the Sea Dogs were dead last in most measures and where it was a challenge to find much optimism beyond Kent Hrbek, Mauer, and Griffey Jr.

What Went Right

Those three. Hrbek hit for power and led the team with 96 RBIs; Griffey, Jr had as good a year as good have been hoped for, slashing 292/326/568; and Mauer posted an .823 OPS as an everyday catcher.

The acquisition of Bobby Abreu looks solid, as the young OFer slashed 257/389/527 in a late season callup.

And that’s about it on the offensive side.

The rotation has all the potential in the world, with a front four of Walter Johnson, Walter Ball, Joseíto Muñoz, and Bert Blyleven. Of those, however, only Ball had an actually solid year, and he missed half the season with injuries.

And … yeah … that’s about it.

ALL STARS

Rogers Hornsby (Subsequently traded)
Joe Mauer

MAJOR AWARDS

Buddy Bell: AL 3B Gold Glove
Bert Blyleven: AL P Gold Glove

RECOGNITIONS

Kiki Cuyler: AL Over 30 Team
Ken Griffey, Jr: AL 21 & Under Team
Walter Johnson: AL 21 & Under Team
Joseíto Muñoz: AL 21 & Under Team

ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Joe Mauer, MVP
Walter Ball, Pitcher of the Year
Walter Johnson, Heart & Soul
Joseíto Muñoz, Fan Favorite

Joe Coleman, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Chuck Klein, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Bobby Murcer, Gil Hodges, Kiki Cuyler, and Cliff Lee each posted negative WAR’s in over 125 PAs. Hodges managed that while leading the team in homers with 38, which means he did, essentially, nothing else.

The middle infield was a mess for most of the year, with Paul Molitor–who clearly doesn’t belong at 2B–leading a weak group. Hughie Jennings, Eddie Yost, Elvis Andrus, and Willie Randolph all struggled mightily after being given a shot, and it’s all pretty wide open.

The bullpen was a mess all year, with Trevor Hoffman struggling as the closer, John Wetteland being horrible after his acquisition, and a rotating crew of Frank Williams, Elmer Brown, Dick Jones, and a few others being unable to hold their spot.

Dizzy Trout and Jerry Koosman both struggled a bit as starters.

Transactions

March

IF Adrian Beltré, OF Denard Span, P Atlee Hammaker, P Pedro Ramos & 2nd Round Pick to OTT for OF Ken Griffey, Jr. & 4th Round Pick.

It’s a lot to give up, but Griffey, Jr delivered this year. Ultimately, the deal will be judged by the pick and Beltré, but you can’t argue too much against it.

C Iván Rodríguez, P Jon Matlack, OF Adolis García, OF Al Oliver, 1st Round Pick, & 4th Round Pick to MCG for IF Paul Molitor, OF Vladimir Guerrero, C Alan Ashby, & 2nd Round Pick.

This was a blockbuster, but it makes sense: the Sea Dogs were committed to Mauer and the rest was about equaling out potential value. A lot hinges on whether Molitor is able to find a position. With Guerrero still a year or 2 away and the picks involved, it will take a while to evaluate this one.

July

P Mike Cuellar to BAL for P John Wetteland & 4th Round Pick.

Wetteland was so bad after his arrival that this has to be considered a loss at this point.

IF Rogers Hornsby & P Pascual Pérez to NYY for IF Willie Randolph, P Jake Peavy, P Bill Monbouquette, & 1st Round Pick.

Assuming Peavy stays healthy and the Sea Dogs don’t fumble the pick, this is a win given how far away from contention Portland is and Hornsby’s advancing age.

August

IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper to PHI for P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu, & 2nd Round Pick.

This trade kept getting bigger and bigger, and ended up doing a lot of things at once. Palmiero and Abreu were each blocked in their organizations, so that part makes sense; the rest was a fire sale as Philadelphia cemented their playoff drive. If Stieb and/or Hawkins can deliver at the WBL level, this is probably a win for Portland.

Positional Overview

C

Joe Mauer had better not get hurt … last year it felt like Cliff Lee would be a solid backup, but Lee flopped, and the backup job is up for grabs, with Ernie Krueger having the inside track on it, although Alan Ashby will also be given a look in Spring Training.

1B

Kent Hrbek has this locked down, and while the Sea Dogs wish the big guy would take that slight step forward, he remains a solid choice.

Gil Hodges will be Hrbek’s primary backup unless Portland moves on from him, in which case Mickey Vernon or veteran Don Baylor seem the most likely call-ups.

2B

The question is how long can Portland accept Paul Molitor‘s defensive deficiencies. Assuming it’s a while more, Portland is likely to keep a glove-first option as a backup infielder, likely Wayne Garrett or Tom Satriano or, if they are still just looking for memes, Greg Litton.

SS

The Sea Dogs really wanted Hughie Jennings to make a claim here, but he didn’t, not really. So that opens up some competition with Cobe Jones and Elvis Andrus.

3B

Buddy Bell was quite bad over the first few months, but rebounded well, and remains the favorite here, although Eddie Yost has his supporters in the organization, as does, despite his significant WBL struggles, Miguel Sanó.

LF/RF

Bobby Murcer struggled a bit this year, but remains the incumbent. At the other corner, it’s far more open: Bobby Abreu will get a long look, but Ruben Sierra and the massively disappointing Kiki Cuyler also have a shot, as does, perhaps, young Chuck Klein.

Two 20 year olds are the future here: Vladimir Guerrero and Hugh Duffy need some more time, but are both slated as WBL starters.

CF

This is Ken Griffey, Jr‘s spot. Heck, this is essentially Griffey, Jr’s team, given fellow youngster Walter Johnson‘s comparative reticence.

Gary Pettis will always make an argument as a defensive option, and Lloyd Moseby has some legitimate WBL talent.

DH

I guess this is Gil Hodges, but he really was poor this season. Don Baylor and Ruben Sierra have a chance to make the team here, and maybe it’s actually just where Molitor ends up?

SP

Nothing is more promising or more likely to disappoint than young pitchers, right?

Joseíto Muñoz is 20, Walter Johnson and Bert Blyleven 21, and rookie Walter Ball the old man of the staff at 26. But there is so much talent in those 4, and if either Jake Peavy or Johan Santana can step forward, it has the potential to be as good a rotation as there is in the WBL.

It also has the potential to be profoundly average with long stints on the DL. So.

Dizzy Trout and Joe Coleman are worthwhile as long-term projects as well.

RP

This is ugly. Trevor Hoffman cannot find a decent performance level, John Wetteland was miserable, and the people pulled in for trials–Frank Williams, Elmer Brown, Dick Jones–were equally bad.

Hoffman and Wetteland have elite stuff, but just seem overmatched at this point, They’ll get another year to try, though.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 3
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 0
5th Round: 1

A big draft for the Sea Dogs, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. There are a few WBL ready arms, aside from that, the lower end of the farm system could just be upgraded across the board.

In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.

A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.

#WBL Teams of the Year

#WBL 25 & Under Teams

#WBL 23 & Under Teams

300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.

#WBL 21 & Under

All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.

There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.

One more, largely for fun

#WBL Over 30 Team

Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.

I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.

Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.

#C

So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.

The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.

#1B

Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.

In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.

#2B

These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.

#SS

In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.

The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.

#3B

The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.

#LF

The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.

The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.

#CF

Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.

Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.

#RF

The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.

In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.

#P

We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.

Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.

Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.

#The Gold Gloves

There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.

But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:

6. Cleveland
5. Philadelphia
4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland
3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco
2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa
1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

One thing became quite clear through all this: the AL is far more potent at the plate than the NL. Here, the challenge is omitting some players with 30 homeruns or near 1.000 OPS.

#C

Ed Bailey (whose defensive performance has been surprisingly good) and Mickey Cochrane are clearly in, with Bailey starting. That leaves Joe Mauer in a bit of no-man’s land: if the AL goes with 3 catchers, he’d be the 3rd. With Portland needing representation in the game, and a general desire for 3 backstops, Mauer makes the cut.

Iván Rodríguez has probably been the best defensive catcher in the AL (although Mauer has been quite good), but Pudge’s 237/272/448 slash line is just too weak to merit much consideration.

#1B

It’s hard to imagine that 32 HR and 72 RBI at the all star game doesn’t make the roster, but that’s what Jim Thome is facing. Lou Gehrig and Frank Thomas clearly are on the roster and while Lance Berkman and Hank Greenberg have better overall numbers than Thome, his power is gaudy enough to have the 3 in a dead heat. Perhaps Greenberg’s defense edges him in front?

In the end, none of the 3 of them made it, which is remarkable.

#2B & SS

Because Dick Lundy and Bobby Grich–two strong contenders–essentially split their time between 2B and SS, we’ll consider the two positions together. First the 2Bs.

And now the SS

This is rough all around.

Arky Vaughan is just about the only clear choice here, with the best all around performance by a SS if you discount Cal Ripken, Jr., who just hasn’t played enough (likewise, a lack of playing time eliminates both Miller Huggins and, most controversially, Charlie Gehringer from consideration).

If we need 4 more middle infielders, they should come from Rogers Hornsby, Grich, Lundy, Eddie Collins, and Robin Yount.

Hornsby has been the best hitting 2B, which is no surprise, but he’s also missed some time and is somewhat of a liability defensively. Still, the best OPS of the group has to count for something, so he’s in as the starting 2B for the AL.

Eddie Collins is having a bit of an off year compared to last year season. Grich, Collins, and Yount are almost indistinguishable: as such, Grich’s versatility earns him a roster spot, and Collins edges Yount for the final spot, leaving Lundy in the cold as well.

#3B

Wade Boggs is really just there for comparison. Mike Schmidt gets the starter’s nod over Evan Longoria, as much for his team’s performance as any discernable statistical edge.

#LF/RF

We’ll treat the corner OF’s together.

Babe Ruth, José Canseco, and Ted Williams are locks. After that, it would seem criminal to omit either Frank Robinson or Mickey Mantle, although it must be noted that Uncle Robbie’s performance is ever-so-stronger than Mantle’s, earning him one of the final spots.

That would leave the electric Rickey Henderson and the extraordinary Joe Jackson on the outside looking in.

#CF

Look, I don’t like Tris Speaker either, but the man can flat out play. So, he’s in, as is Stearnes, perhaps the leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year. And neither Eric Davis nor the surprising Julio Rodríguez have played enough to make the cut. So that leaves Mike Trout as the open question: Trout is clearly deserving, so the question is whether the AL goes with 2 pure CF’s or 3.

Alejandro Oms misses out, despite being 3rd in the league in BA.

#DH

My lord. 31 homeruns at the all star break and a possibility of not being selected? Welcome to your life, Ryan Braun.

Obviously, Ty Cobb and Ron Blomberg are in. And it seems ridiculous to omit either Kal Daniels or Reggie Jackson.

#SP

And now we move into the AL’s weakness–there are strong top-end candidates here, but far less depth than over in the NL.

The spots fill up quickly. Eddie Plank will start the game for the AL, and his teammates Bump Hadley and Lefty Grove clearly belong. It seems silly to omit the ERA leader, Doc Gooden.

After that, it gets confusing. Ed Walsh has been almost unhittable, but is only 6-3. Andy Pettitte has 10 wins and a sub 4.00 ERA.

That would leave the overall WAR leader, Cy Young, the strikeout and SIERA leader, Ron Guidry, and the overall excellence of Brett Anderson missing out.

#RP

The AL is a little weak in bullpen depth as well. Rod Beck is easily the class of the closers, with Terry Adams close behind. The overall excellence of Ken Howell and Goose Gossage also merit a spot, leaving Ross Reynolds, Skel Roach, and Justin Hampson on the bubble.

Hampson gets the nod, both because of how surprising his season has been and as a nod to the paucity of lefties in the AL pen.

#AL All Stars

The final 2 spots came down to choices between Mike Trout, Reggie Jackson, Kal Daniels, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Collins, and Robin Yount. A fourth middle infielder seemed like a requirement, giving the nod to Collins.

So. Reggie or Kal. Kal or Reggie. I mean. Kal Daniels is having an incredible year. But there’s just no way to argue he is more deserving than Reggie.

There is an argument to be made that the AL should only take 2 3B, replacing Gary Sheffield with Daniels. But the final choice is always going to be onerous.

Some more arguments about who was wronged (these are the highest ranked layers in each stat not to make the game).

Joe Jackson (CAG). #2 in H (109); #1 in the league in 2B (40); #2 in BA (.354).
Mickey Mantle (NYY). #3 in HR (32); #3 in RBI (82).
Kal Daniels (LAA). #4 in OBP (.425); #11 in OPS (1.013).
Ryan Braun (MCG). #7 in SLG (.648).
Rickey Henderson (SFS). #1 in SB (62); #4 in WAR (3.0).
Dick Lundy (SFS). #3 in 3B (7).

And, on the mound

Cy Young (CLE). #5 in W (9); #2 in FIP (3.81); #1 in WAR (3.3).
Ron Guidry (NYY). #1 in K (150); #1 in SIERA (2.52).
Brett Anderson (LAA). #5 in ERA (3.93); #2 in WHIP (1.05).
Walter Johnson (POR). #2 in IP (125).
4 Players have 14 saves, tied for #3. Of those, Only Ricky Nolasco (MCG) has an ERA below 4.00.
Rheal Cormier (NYY). #1 in H (11).

Starters in bold.

C: Ed Bailey (DET); Mickey Cochrane (SFS); Joe Mauer (POR).
1B: Lou Gehrig (NYY); Frank Thomas (CAG).
2B: Eddie Collins (CAG); Bobby Grich (LAA); Rogers Hornsby (POR).
SS: Arky Vaughan (CLE).
3B: Evan Longoria (CLE); Mike Schmidt (NYY); Gary Sheffield (MCG).
LF: Frank Robinson (BAL); Ted Williams (MEM).
CF: Tris Speaker (CLE), Turkey Stearnes (SFS).
RF: José Canseco (MCG), Babe Ruth (NYY).
DH: Ron Blomberg (CLE); Reggie Jackson (SFS), Ty Cobb (DET).
SP: Doc Gooden (LAA), Lefty Grove (SFS), Bump Hadley (SFS), Andy Pettitte (NYY); Eddie Plank (SFS), Ed Walsh (CAG).
RP: Terry Adams (CLE); Rod Beck (SFS); Goose Gossage (NYY); Justin Hampson (BAL); Ken Howell (SFS).

And, by team. Unsurprisingly, the 3 American League teams with records over .500 (San Francisco, the Black Yankees, and Cleveland) are supplying 18 of the 32 players.

San Francisco Sea Lions (.625). Rod Beck (P), Mickey Cochrane (C), Lefty Grove (P), Bump Hadley (P), Ken Howell (P) Reggie Jackson (DH), Eddie Plank (P), Turkey Stearnes (OF).
New York Black Yankees (.618). Lou Gehrig (1B), Goose Gossage (P), Andy Pettitte (P), Babe Ruth (OF), Mike Schmidt (3B).
Cleveland Spiders (.558). Terry Adams (P), Ron Blomberg (DH), Evan Longoria (3B), Tris Speaker (OF), Arky Vaughan (SS).
Chicago American Giants (.466). Eddie Collins (2B), Frank Thomas (1B), Ed Walsh (P).
Miami Cuban Giants (.483). José Canseco (OF), Gary Sheffield (3B).
Detroit Wolverines (.453). Ed Bailey (C), Ty Cobb (DH).
Los Angeles Angels (.448). Doc Gooden (P), Bobby Grich (2B).
Portland Sea Dogs (.438). Rogers Hornsby (2B), Joe Mauer (C).
Baltimore Black Sox (.416). Justin Hampson (P), Frank Robinson (OF).
Memphis Red Sox (.494). Ted Williams (OF).

A whopping 15 players are repeat all-stars from last season: Terry Adams, Rod Beck, Ron Blomberg, José Canseco, Eddie Collins, Lou Gehrig, Lefty Grove, Rogers Hornsby, Ken Howell, Reggie Jackson, Joe Mauer, Babe Ruth, Frank Thomas, and Ted Williams.

Portland features players from the Washington Senators, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

Feels like virtually everyone on the roster is underperforming compared to last year. Not great.

THE OFFENSE

Lots of struggle here.

#What’s Going Right

Rogers Hornsby, last year’s prize trade acquisition, continues to star at age 34, leading the team in BA and OBP, with a .536 SLG to boot.

C Joe Mauer continues to be an elite backstop, slashing 302/383/502.

Gil Hodges leads the team in HR with 21 and RBI with 52 despite an OPS under .800. This actually probably belongs below: only 4 other hitters are in double digits in homeruns for a team having a hard time with power.

The Sea Dogs gave up a lot for Ken Griffey, Jr., whose talent remains undeniable. After struggling mightily with Ottawa last season, The Kid is doing significantly better, with a 278/332/546 slash line. So it’s not exactly setting the world on fire, but at 20 years old, it’s something.

Kiki Cuyler and Jeff Burroughs have been quite good as reserves, pushing hard for more playing time.

#What’s Not Going Right

Buddy Bell has been mired in a major slump, with a recent rebound leaving him still slashing 245/268/401, which is pretty miserable.

Bobby Murcer and Jim Fregosi have been thoroughly meh after each being among the best in the league at their positions last season.

Paul Molitor has been tantalizing but ultimately not very effective.

Harry Hooper has been among the worst OFers in the league, falling far, far short of last year’s solid contributions.

Cliff Lee–perhaps the best C prospect in the minors last year–has been horrible as Mauer’s backup this season, probably warranting a return to AAA in the near future.

THE PITCHING

The bullpen–a strength of the Sea Dogs last year–has been anything but this time around.

#What’s Going Right

Walter Johnson is Walter Johnson. He’s not as dominant as he was for periods last year, but he still leads the staff in wins and the starters in ERA.

Trevor Hoffman has excelled since being named the team’s closer.

Rookie Walter Ball has been quite good, with the best WHIP on the staff. For a 2nd round pick, that’s exceeding reasonable expectations.

Mike Cuellar continues to be among the best long relievers in the league.

#What’s Not Going Right

Johan Santana came back from long term injury and stepped back into his closer role–remember, he made the All-Star game last year leading the league in saves before getting hurt. So he came back and … something was dramatically wrong. So wrong that Santana is now in the minors being converted into a starter.

Dizzy Trout and Pascual Pérez have been mediocre at best, which is far from an indictment but also far from their performance last year.

But probably the biggest issue has been the rest of the bullpen. Mark Melancon–and his 5.00+ ERA–has been the best of them, and the rest of the relievers have had a full turnover, with the current bunch–Scott Terry, Tom Zachary, and Art Fowler–not looking any better.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is some talent here, especially in the OF, where Vladimir Guerrero, Hugh Duffy and Chuck Klein all look like WBL talents. It gets a little thinner after that: Hughie Jennings at SS seems good, but on the mound there’s not a ton. Maybe Harry Harper, maybe Joaquin Benoit, maybe Willard Schmidt?

WHAT’S NEEDED

The offense to recover a little bit and the pitching staff to recover a lot.

That pretty much sums it up.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• How will the Sea Dogs compensate for the loss of Cravath? The hope was that Hooper and Murcer would keep producing, and that, combined with Ken Griffey, Jr. would provide enough to make up for the loss of Cravath. Not so much.
• Who joins the OF? Griffey, Jr. But … yeah, see above.

Notice that pitching wasn’t mentioned in the questions … so this was quite a shock for the Sea Dogs.

FEATURED SERIES

Portland is visiting its West Coast neighbors this week, and we’ll feature their opening series, 3 games against the Los Angeles Angels.

Projected Starters

Portland starter listed first.

Bert Blyleven (3-5, 4.73) @ Pud Galvin (1-9, 5.10)
Dizzy Trout (5-5, 4.44) @ Tom Seaver (3-5, 4.76)
Walter Johnson (8-4, 4.13) @ Brett Anderson (6-2, 4.28)

Game One

Kent Hrbek singled home a run in the top of the first and Bobby Murcer hit his first of the game (foreshadowing confirmed) in the top of the 4th, putting the Sea Dogs up, 2-0. Bert Blyleven looked solid, but a 2-run shot from LA’s Ichiro Suzuki tied up the game.

But the Sea Dogs looked more like their old selves from then on out, with Murcer hitting a grandslam in the fifth, making it 7-3. The game was over at that point, despite a 3 run homer from Mike Trout in the 9th.

The two homeruns gave Murcer 18 on the year and, as importantly for Portland, Hrbek added 3 hits as he showed more signs of rebounding towards last year’s performance. Blyleven was good enough, and Tom Zachary added a scoreless 1.2 innings in relief.

POR 8 (Blyleven 4-5) @ LAA 6 (Seaver 3-6)
HRs: POR – Murcer 2 (18); LAA – Suzuki (5), Trout (15).
Box Score

Game Two

A day off before this series has shifted the matchups some, with game two now featuring Walter Johnson for the Sea Dogs and the Angels keeping with their originally scheduled hurler, Pud Galvin.

LA took the lead in the 4th as Mike Trout doubled, stole 3rd, and scored on a groundout from Doug Rader. Carlos Delgado added his 13th of the year, and the Angels had a 2-0 lead.

The Angels are never sure which version of Galvin they’ll get: today, unfortunately for the Sea Dogs, it’s the one twirling a perfect game through 5 innings. That was spoiled by a couple of walks, and then the no-no went away when Rogers Hornsby singled in the top of the 7th.

A single from Paul Molitor and a walk to Gil Hodges chased Galvin in the top of the 8th, but Francisco Rodríguez and Joe Nathan were perfect in relief, completing the 2-hit shutout and evening the series at 1 game each.

POR 0 (Johnson 8-6) @ LAA 2 (Galvin 2-9; Nathan 11 Sv; Rodríguez 6 H)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Delgado (13).
Box Score

Game Three

Portland’s Dizzy Trout and Los Angeles’ Brett Anderson are both pitching excellently at the moment, making the rubber game matchup pretty appealing.

Don Buford and Kal Daniels hit back-to-back homers to leadoff the bottom of the first, giving the home team an early 2-0 lead. Carlos Delgado added his 14th of the year, a 2-run shot, doubling the lead. Trout didn’t make it out of the 5th, leaving after loading the bases.

Meanwhile, Anderson was sailing along, allowing only 2 hits through 6 shutout frames.

The Angels would add some more–2 in the 6th and 4 in the 8th–but the story was Anderson, who was pulled after allowing 2 hits in the 9th, combining with Ross Reynolds on the 4-hit shutout.

Delgado had 4 hits on the day and drove in 3.

POR 0 (Trout 5-6) @ LAA 10 (Anderson 7-2)
HRs: POR – none; LAA – Daniels (14), Buford (16), Delgado (14).
Box Score

So, back to back shutouts ain’t great. There is much to be done in Portland this season, but it would seem the immediate challenge is to successfully participate in the midseason trade market as a seller.

#Chicago American Giants

Carlton Fisk went deep twice (one a grand slam) and drove in 7 as the American Giants beat Detroit 11-7 in 11 innings. Eddie Collins had 4 hits for Chicago as well.

#Los Angeles Angels

Bobby Grich hit his 14th homerun in the bottom of the 9th, giving the Angels an 8-6 walkoff victory over Memphis.

#Miami Cuban Giants

Ryan Braun hit 2 homeruns, but, despite several comebacks, the Cuban Giants fell to San Francisco in 10 innings.

José Méndez had a no-hitter through 7 and Gary Sheffield hit 2 out as the Cuban Giants beat the Sea Lions, 8-4.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Harry Hooper‘s struggles have led to Kiki Cuyler getting more and more playing time, essentially moving the two into a platoon in LF. More importantly, Joseíto Muñoz began his rehab from a long term injury, something that offers significant help to the Sea Dogs’ rotation.

Gil Hodges went deep twice, but the Sea Dogs fell to Cleveland, 11-6, in 13 innings. Jerry Koosman was forced from the game with a shoulder injury, earning himself a trip to the DL. Bobby Witt was recalled to take his place.

Hodges did it again, giving him 21 on the year, and Portland beat the New York Black Yankees despite an off day from Walter Johnson, who moved to 8-5 barely making 5 innings. Hooper, Paul Molitor, and Joe Mauer also went yard for the Sea Dogs in the win.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Jimmy Bloodworth started his injury rehab, perhaps offering some help to the MI challenges faced by San Francisco.

Jack Clark hit out 2, reaching 20 on the year, and the Sea Lions edged Miami in 10 innings. Clark drove in 5 and Rickey Henderson scored 4 times for San Francisco.

#Chicago American Giants

IF Damian Jackson will miss a couple weeks with a knee contusion. George Grantham was recalled, a move that once again preserves offensive black hole Jack Doyle on the roster due to his defensive versatility.

Cristóbal Torriente‘s offensive woes have opened the door for, at least temporarily, Vernon Wells to see more playing time.

With Billy Loes out for over a month (strained oblique), the American Giants recalled Joe Lake, and with Akinori Otsuka ready for recall from his rehab assignment, Larry Twitchell was sent down.

#Los Angeles Angels

Doug Rader and Gerrit Cole were near the best in the league last year. This season, not so much. But today they put it together: Rader hit 2 out and Cole spun a 4-hit shutout in a 7-0 win over Cleveland. Cole’s record improved to 2-5 and Rader, an RBI machine last year, only upped his total to 25 with 6 homeruns. But it was a start.

George Wright will miss a couple of weeks, with the Angels recalling Eddie Joost from AAA. This is Joost’s 6th team and 2nd tour with Los Angeles–we’ll see if this round is any more successful than a 10 game stint earlier this season.

Kal Daniels reached double-digits in homeruns with 2 in a 12-3 rout of Chicago. Doc Gooden pitched 8 strong innings, lowering his ERA below 3.00 and improving his record to 5-4.

#Miami Cuban Giants

José Canseco did it again, sending 3 balls out of the yard in a 7-4 win over Memphis. That gave Canseco 27 for the year, at least temporarily leading the league.

Gary Sheffield went deep twice, but the Cuban Giants couldn’t hold a lead and Miami fell to San Francisco, 5-4.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Ken Griffey, Jr. went deep twice and the Sea Dogs rode 8 strong innings from Walter Johnson for a 6-4 win over Detroit.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Eddie Plank carried a 1-hitter into the 9th, but in the end needed a little help to close out a 3-0 victory over Portland. Plank loaded the bases, but Rod Beck got the final out for his 13th save, with Plank improving to 7-2. Jimmie Foxx hit his 19th homer of the year for San Francisco.

We are roughly 1/4 through the season!

#Awards

Miami Cuban Giants OF Ryan Braun, who hit 6 homeruns with a .417 average, was the AL Player of the Week and Mike Epstein of the Homestead Grays took home the NL Player of the Week. Epstein hit .556 with 5 homeruns.

#Team Performance

It’s still far too early, of course, but there is a sliver of daylight emerging in 3 of the 4 divisions.

In the Bill James Division, the New York Black Yankees lead the Cleveland Spiders by 4 games; in the Cum Posey Division, the San Francisco Sea Lions have ridden an 8-2 streak to a 3 game lead over the Chicago American Giants, and in the Marvin Miller Division, the Kansas City Monarchs have opened up a 4.5 game edge over the Indianapolis ABC’s.

So that leaves the Effa Manley Division, where all 5 teams are separated by only 5 games from the Grays on top to the Philadelphia Stars at the bottom. Here’s how it stacks up:

#Player Performance

Batters

Returning to normalcy: all the bold next to Babe Ruth.

But there are a ton of new storylines here as well: is Ty Cobb for real? Just how many doubles can he hit? Ruth tied for the league lead in homeruns isn’t news, but being joined by Ryan Braun and Larry Walker is (similarly, Ruth leading with 50 RBI’s is familiar; Walker joining him is not).

Also, Tony Gwynn hitting .421 is fun.

League leaders in bold, top 2 for most categories listed.

Ryan Braun (MCG). 320/366/765. 20 HR.
Ty Cobb (DET). 404/462/861. 61 H; 25 2B; 3.2 WAR.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 421/456/679. 67 H; 40 R.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 271/377/484. 34 SB.
Pete Hill (HOU). 286/356/539. 8 3B.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 365/416/591. 22 2B.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). 312/398/659. 40 R.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 316/443/770. 20 HR; 50 RBI; 43 R; 37 BB; 3.2 WAR.
Joey Votto (IND). 295/442/508. 31 BB.
Larry Walker (OTT). 342/423/770. 20 HR; 50 RBI.
Bobby Wallace (BAL). 250/387/342. 31 BB.

Pitchers

Starters

6 pitchers have 6 wins, but only 2 have 7 and of those only Kansas City’s Frank Castillo is undefeated.

Houston‘s Toad Ramsey has come back to the pack some, but all that bold shows just how far ahead of them he had gone. It’s no longer clear who the best starter in the league is at the moment, although Castillo certainly has a decent argument. But Ramsey’s teammate Roger Clemens is in there, as is Indianapolis’ Johnny Cueto, and it’s hard to ignore the ERA leader, Chicago’s Mark Buehrle.

League leaders in bold, top 2 for most categories listed.

Mark Buehrle (CAG). 5-2, 2.42.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 7-0, 2.85.
Watty Clark (SFS). 2-0, 5.21. 3.24 FIP.
Roger Clemens (HOU). 6-0, 3.47. 0.98 WHIP.
Johnny Cueto (IND). 7-1, 3.51.
Doc Gooden (LAA). 4-3, 2.60.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 5-4, 3.49. 67 IP.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 6-1, 3.52. 75 K; 2.0 WAR.
Walter Johnson (POR). 4-4, 2.94. 67.1 IP; 2.0 WAR.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 6-2, 2.60. 81 K; 2.9 WAR; 0.88 WHIP; 2.52 FIP.

Relievers

Brooklyn‘s Trevor Hildenberger is probably the hottest reliever in the league, but really nobody is truly dominant from the pen so far, other than his teammate, Fernando Valenzuela, whose future is almost certainly as a starter.

12 IP minimum; league leaders in bold, top 2 for most categories listed.

Rod Beck (SFS). 2-2, 5.40. 12 Sv.
Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-0, 3.38. 7 H.
Trevor Hildenberger 1-0, 1.20. 1 Sv, 5 H; 0.60 WHIP.
Ted Kennedy (PHI). 2-2, 3.48. 2 Sv, 7 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 3-0, 2.55. 12 Sv.
Lee Smith (HOD). 1-0, 2.04. 1 Sv; 5 H; 0.57 WHIP.
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK). 2-0, 1.16. 4 H.

#Injury Report

Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson is expected back this week, as is Detroit‘s SS George Davis.

The New York Black Yankees hope to send Red Ruffing–out for nearly a year–on a rehab assignment later in the week.

#AAA Check In

We’ll take a little look at AAA, both in terms of the best performers and the best prospects (24 and under) roughly 1/4 of the way through the season.

For the batters, the dominance of players from Las Vegas (Los Angeles‘ AAA franchise) and Columbus (the AAA home for the House of David) is striking. Of these, Stearns may get a look soon given the Angels’ current struggles behind the plate and Valo’s performance may force himself back to the WBL. With both Kang and Brown blocked by Ron Cey–having a great season with the House of David–perhaps those 2 end up as trade bait?

Pitchers are highly unpredictable, of course. Redding and Peterson are doing excellently and seem destined for great things; at the same time, both Lee and Bechtel have struggled with their big league clubs.