Overall, this is an NL dominant position for sure.

For the defensive stats, FRM is Framing Runs, a measure of how many runs were saved through handling the glove and RTO% is the % of runners thrown out. For these, the 3 best performers are in bold; the 3 worst in italics.

#S Tier

Josh Gibson was the best player in the NL, making him the de facto best catcher. But Gary Carter‘s season cannot be ignored. Just because there is a massive gap between 2 players (Gibson has, for example, an 11.4 to 5.5 edge in WAR) doesn’t mean both can be S-Tier. Just about the only edge Carter has is defensively, where his significantly stronger arm shines.

#A Tier

Jim Pagliaroni and Ed Bailey were each slightly less than full time players, but catching is hard, and we are more forgiving of that here.

Still, Mike Piazza would top this list and clearly (especially if you give weight to his monstrous postseason this year) has the best chance of moving up, as it’s not clear how many seasons Bailey has left and Pagliaroni–especially when his defensive ineptitude is considered–may actually belong 1 group lower.

In saying that, I continue an honored WBL tradition of not really giving Buster Posey his due. The metrics love him, as he is 3rd overall in WAR at 4.4 and clearly a better defensive catcher than the rest of this group. But his raw OPS is 40 points lower than Pagliaroni and he suffers from playing for the Gothams.

Which mean Ed Bailey is the best catcher in the AL right now, although Posey and some of the younger backstops from lower tiers may be preferred if you were building a team from scratch.

#B Tier

A good argument could be made that Johnny Bench belongs in the tier above, especially if we are giving any weight at all to his Year 1 performance, but his offense just fell off so much–the power remained, but little else. Still, the assumption is he will bounce back.

There is something off with Curt Blefary, but the team is remaining mum so far. Still rumors of him and alcohol abound, raising a question of how long he can keep up his production.

Gabby Hartnett and Mickey Cochrane are both incredibly solid, and Cochrane’s defensive masterclass in the Whirled Series did nothing but enhance his reputation.

Gentleman Jim O’Rourke‘s value is largely from his defensive versatility, but he did play more innings at C than anywhere else (which speaks more to Jorge Posada‘s ineptitude than anything else).

#C Tier

These are all solid starters, and none of their jobs are really in question (other than, perhaps, Ernie Lombardi, who just looks like someone who will always come off the bench). But none of them really catch the eye, either. Joe Mauer and Thurman Munson were much better last season, so there is hope they return to form and Pudge Rodríguez, of course, is absolutely spectacular defensively. But even with his cannon of an arm, he’ll need to add some more offense to edge up the list.

#D Tier

Elrod Hendricks, quite good for the House of David last year, lost his starting job this year, despite retaining a decent power bat. Posada is clearly on his way out, and will likely spend next season as Houston’s backup catcher, while Mike Scioscia is likely to fill the same role for Philadelphia.

#F Tier

I mean, maybe Hendricks and Posada belong here? Certainly the total mess of a situation in Los Angeles does–which brings up the challenge of the F Tier in general: if you play that poorly, you’re probably going to be moved out.

John Ellis is really more of a pinch-hitter, spending roughly half his time at 1B as well. The occasional power is useful, but he’s not a starter at either position. Seeing him and Louis Santop (one of last year’s darlings, and still a highly regarded prospect given his tender age of 20) here makes Cleveland’s decision to acquire Ed Bailey quite obvious.

#Rookies

None. The best rookie catcher in the league was Philadelphia’s Bill Dickey, but he didn’t play enough to qualify here.

Previews are in order of seeding, starting with the Sea Lions

#San Francisco Sea Lions

San Francisco won 103 games this year and was the dominant team for almost all of the season. As such, postseason expectations are high, and warrantably so.

The front of their rotation can match up against anyone, with Lefty Grove (16-6, 4.40), Eddie Plank (20-7, 4.42), and the impressive rookie, Bump Hadley (18-6, 4.10) as dominant as they come. The back end of the bullpen is equally strong: Rod Beck led the league in saves with 41, Ken Howell was his usual spectacular self, and Joe Nathan was obtained via trade for the 7th.

Offensively, the Sea Lions are led by the presumptive AL Rookie of the Year, Turkey Stearnes, but he’s far from the only force: Rickey Henderson led the league in steals, Reggie Jackson and Jack Clark each had over 100 RBIs, and Clark, Stearnes, Jackson, and Jimmie Foxx each hit over 40 homeruns.

Even an injury that will prevent Frank Grant from seeing action for a week or 2 has an upside, as it clears playing time for Royce Clayton, who has an OPS over .900 as a reserve IF.

With Grant unavailable, the final spot on the playoff roster came down to a choice between Tommy Bridges and Wayne Gross, with the Sea Lions deciding to go with the the extra bat off the bench.

#New York Black Yankees

90 wins and a Bill James Division Title earned the Black Yankees the 2nd seed in the AL.

The story of the Black Yankees has remained the same over 2 seasons and numerous roster moves: can the bullpen do enough to support good starting pitching and an excellent offense?

Goose Gossage was given closer duties midway through the season and has been excellent overall, but getting to him as been challenging to say the least, prompting New York to overpay for Hoyt Wilhelm as a bridge between the starters, the erratic Aroldis Chapman, and Gossage.

Andy Pettitte has taken over the #1 slot from Ron Guidry, and after those 2 it’s a bit of a tossup between Dave Righetti, Pascual Pérez, and the surprising Tony Brizzolara.

Offensively, the team is a beast, with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle combining for over 200 HRs with star level support from Mike Schmidt, Eric Davis, and Rogers Hornsby.

Had he been recalled earlier, the surprising Josh Harrison would have made the playoff roster, but instead Jeff Nelson comes along as an extra bullpen arm.

#Cleveland Spiders

Cleveland faded down the stretch, finishing a game behind the Black Yankees. Still, a solid season for the Spiders, who relied on an impressive offense and a pitching staff that, while lacking star power, remained dependable top to bottom.

Cy Young led the way with 15 wins, but Bob Feller and Bill Steen were probably better as starters. Yordana Ventura started well this season, but faded and may be relegated to bullpen duty. Al Smith has locked down a spot in the pen, teaming with Cory Gearrin to get the ball to closer Terry Adams.

7 everyday starters sport OPS’ over .900, including the 33 year-old, late season callup, Willie McCovey. McCovey’s performance makes the roster a little heavy in 1B/DH/Corner OF types, with Lance Berkman, Ron Blomberg, and John Ellis all fitting that role, but 17 HRs in under 40 games can’t be ignored.

The key to the offense remains evil CF Tris Speaker, but Berkman, who led the Spiders in HR and RBI, isn’t far behind. A late season surge–including 4 homers on the final day of the season–has moved Larry Doby into that conversation, and Evan Longoria and Arky Vaughan have laid full claim to the 3B and SS roles, which were question marks for Cleveland earlier in the season.

Everyone makes the postseason roster, even the disappointing Louis Santop who, after starring last season, forgot how to hit and lost most of his playing time to mid-season acquisition Ed Bailey. Bailey has a bruised thigh, and will be unavailable for the first few games of the opening series, meaning Santop or Ellis will likely start behind the plate.

#Detroit Wolverines

A tailspin at the end of the year forced Detroit into a 1 game playoff for the final Wild Card spot, which they won handily. For that effort, they receive a matchup with San Francisco, in which they will be a significant underdog.

Still, it’s hard to count a team with Ty Cobb, he of the 386/440/841 slash line, out.

Cobb, however, didn’t lead the Wolverines in OPS–that honor fell to JD Martinez who just kept demanding more playing time as the season wore on. It’s only 125 PAs, but still. Hank Greenberg and Al Kaline provide significant support, and behind them, well, nobody is a star but nobody is bad. Oscar Gamble, Juan Beníquez, Ernie Lombardi, and Bob Bailey all have OPS’ over .850. Greenberg is out for the first game or 1, which is a significant blow for Detroit.

The middle infield is an open question, but Charlie Gheringer seems to have locked down 2B and a mixture of Tony Lazzeri and Ray Chapman are producing surprising offense from SS. There is an outside chance Bobby Wallace–obtained to be the solution at SS–is back during the postseason. We’ll see.

The weakness of this team is the starting pitching: Charlie Root was the only constant, and he was pretty mediocre. Hal Newhouser has an explosive arm, but an erratic track record, and after him, we’re looking at trade acquisition Connie Johnson and the surprising Pete Conway.

Closer Mike Henneman is still trying to recover from a back issue, meaning the bullpen will revolve around Chad Bradford, Steve Howe, Troy Percival, and Buddy Napier. Howe and Percival were obtained via trade and have been fairly inconsistent.

The final roster spot came down to a choice between George Bechtel and Johnny Marcum, with Detroit opting for Marcum’s experience, but neither have been very good this year.

#Predictions

San Francisco is just too good. Detroit can take some hope from having split the season series with the Sea Lions at 7 games each. But it just feels like too big of an ask.

San Francisco in 5.

The other series is just a continuation of a back-and-forth battle all season. The teams are completely familiar to each other, having met 23 times in the regular season, with Cleveland taking 12 wins against New York’s 11.

That feels right for the playoffs as well.

My head says New York in 7, but my heart says Cleveland takes advantage of yet another bullpen implosion to take the final game. We’ll see.

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

The Spiders don’t lead the league in anything, but they are also top 6 or 7 in everything. Add some very bright lights–Tris Speaker, Ron Blomberg, and Lance Berkman especially–and you have a hard team to beat. The question is if they can maintain it–they also feel like a team that could be broken by the wrong injury.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a bit uneven, but there is plenty of firepower here.

#What’s Going Right

It really all revolves around the big 3, with Tris Speaker, Ron Blomberg, and Lance Berkman each sporting an OPS over 1.000. Speaker leads in all the slash stats, while Blomberg has 41 homers and 117 RBIs. Berkman has chipped in with 38 dingers and 95 RBIs, more than enough to lead most teams.

Ed Bailey, brought in via trade during the all star break, remains a top end offensive catcher, slashing 258/344/617.

Evan Longoria, who struggled most of last season, has seized the 3B role, and is one of 5 batters with over 20 homers (3 more–Arky Vaughan, Larry Doby, and Chuck Knoblauch–are in double digits).

Johnny Bates has 41 SB, despite some struggles otherwise offensively.

#What’s Not Going Right

C Louis Santop, an all star and media darling last season, is slashing 207/252/375. He’s only 20 and remains the franchise’s future behind the plate, but the drop in impact is noticeable. This, of course, was the primary motivation for the decision to bring in Ed Bailey.

John Ellis and Chuck Knoblauch–both key players last season–are struggling to push their OPS over .700 this season.

THE PITCHING

It’s … solid. There is a lot of talent here, but not a lot of star power, something that could prove an obstacle in the postseason.

#What’s Going Right

Bill Steen (10-6, 5.02)and Cy Young (10-6, 5.16) both hold identical records, and seem very dependable in a eat up some innings and get the ball to the bullpen sort of way. Young clearly has the talent to do more than that, but has yet to put it together.

Speaking of talent … Bob Feller (7-3, 4.82) keeps flashing it, averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 innings and forcing himself into the starting rotation.

Terry Adams (20 saves) is excellent at closer, and Cory Gearrin (3-0, 2.41) is one of the better setup arms in the league.

Al Smith (1.88 in 11 appearances) has had a very impressive start to his career, and is a potential impact left handed arm in the pen.

#What’s Not Going Right

Of the starters, only Feller has an ERA under 5.00, and that’s only over 6 starts. Yordano Ventura (5-6, 5.59) and Pat Malone (5-8, 5.45) have each struggled to find their form.

Ron Reed continues to not live up to his billing, although he seems to have stabilized as of late.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

Cleveland has the worst rated system in the league … and it may be accurate. Aubrey Huff, Justin Turner, and Bill Phillips could all contribute at some point, and teenage IF Johnny Hodapp can hit, but … there’s just not much here.

There is some talent in the upper levels of the system, most notably OFers Paul O’Neill and Kenny Lofton, but both are stuck behind established players.

WHAT’S NEEDED

If the Spiders are to make a deep postseason push, they need the big 3 to keep producing and a few players–preferably starters–to step forward over the final few months.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• Who plays 3B? This is a question of scarcity: nobody has seemed able to step up. Longoria has pretty much taken over here.
• What happens in the OF? Both Speaker and Kenny Lofton offer strong defense, is it possible to move one of them to LF or RF effectively? Not on this team, no: Lofton didn’t even make the club out of Spring Training, and Speaker is an upper echelon player so far this year, even if he’s a terribly unpopular figure in the clubhouse.

FEATURED SERIES

The Spiders head to Detroit for 3 games against the Wolverines, an in-division rival.

Projected Starters

Cleveland’s starter listed first.

Pat Malone (5-8, 5.45) @ Charlie Root (8-8, 5.60)
Bob Feller (7-3, 4.82) @ Hal Newhouser (5-3, 4.77)
Cy Young (10-6, 5.16) @ Johnny Marcum (6-4, 5.46)

I like this Cleveland team, and especially if Feller shows up, see a sweep as a distinct possibility.

Game One

Bob Feller was moved up to pitch in game one for Cleveland, with Detroit countering with Charlie Root as anticipated.

One of the more pleasant surprises for Detroit, veteran Juan Beníquez, took Feller deep in the 2nd for an early 1-0 Wolverines lead. In the 3rd, another similarly surprising performer–Tony Lazzeri–did the same, making it 2-0.

The Spiders finally broke through against Root in the 6th: Chuck Knoblauch singled to open the inning, was moved to second through a sacrifice bunt from Louis Santop, and scored on a double from Arky Vaughan.

In the bottom of the 6th, after a walk to Oscar Gamble, Beníquez chased Feller from the game with a double in the gap. Al Smith gave up two RBI singles (one to Victor Martínez, the other to Lazzeri) before getting out of the inning, putting the Spiders in a 4-1 hole.

It was short-lived: Ron Blomberg and Lance Berkman went deep back-to-back to lead off the 7th and chase Root from the mound, making it a 1 run one game once more at 4-3.

Chili Davis added an insurance run for Detroit with a solo shot, but Cleveland would not be stopped: Vaughan hit one out in the 8th, then Blomberg hit his 43rd of the year and 2nd of the game with Tris Speaker on board to give the Spiders their first lead of the day, 6-5.

Ron Reed and Terry Adams did their job (although Adams did load the bases in the 9th), and Cleveland took game one.

CLE 6 (Marberry 6-0; Adams 21 Sv; Reed 5 H) @ DET 5 (Hoeft 2-3, 3 BSv; Bechtel 2 H)
HRs: CLE – Blomberg 2 (43), Berkman (39), Vaughan (11); DET – Beníquez (13), Lazzeri (7), C. Davis (27).
Box Score

Game Two

Pat Malone would take his turn for Cleveland in game 2, with Hal Newhouser on the mound for Detroit.

Malone may have needed even more rest–he gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the first, 1 on a single from Ty Cobb, the rest on Al Kaline‘s 22nd round-tripper of the season.

Luckily, Cleveland has some power too, and took the lead in the top of the 2nd behind a pair of 2 run shots, one from Larry Doby and the other from Johnny Bates.

Hank Greenberg tied it up with a solo shot in the 3rd and then, in the 5th, the most unlikely power source of all–Detroit’s George Davis–sent a ball scooting into the gap for an inside-the-park-homerun to give Detroit a 5-4 lead.

Newhouser was done after 5 innings, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks while whiffing 9–sort of a thumbnail of his year to date.

Ron Blomberg did it again, tying the game at 5 with a solo shot to lead off the 8th, but Detroit took it back with an RBI single from Chili Davis in the bottom of the frame.

Detroit’s closer, Mike Henneman, would see his first action since returning form injury. Unfortunately for Cleveland, he looked fully rested, and easily retired the heart of the Spiders’ lineup for his 15th save of the season.

CLE 5 (Morton 5-3; Young 8 Sv; Malloy 2 H) @ DET 6 (Marichal 8-10)
HRs: CLE – Doby (20), Bates (10), Blomberg (44); DET – Kaline (22), Greenberg (36), G. Davis (3).
Box Score

Game Three

Before the game, Detroit sent Joakim Soria out on a rehab assignment.

The starters for game 3 remain unchanged: Cleveland’s Cy Young taking on Detroit’s Johnny Marcum.

Cleveland would score in each of the opening 3 frames: an RBI single from Ron Blomberg, 2 solo shots from Larry Doby, and a 2-run homerun from Ed Bailey. Meanwhile, Young was having a pretty typical start for him: he looked good, but every hit led to a run, with the RBI’s for Detroit coming from Oscar Gamble, Ty Cobb, and Ernie Lombardi. So, 5-3 in favor of Cleveland after 3 innings.

And then, as sometimes happens, both hurlers remembered how to do it, keeping us scoreless until Doby roped his 3rd of the game, chasing Marcum and giving the Spiders a 6-3 edge.

Al Kaline took Young deep in the 6th, closing the edge to 6-4. In the next inning, after a Bob Bailey single chased Young, Al Smith was brought in to face the 2 lefties, Gamble and Cobb. Smith walked Gamble, but got a groundout from Cobb, and Firpo Marberry closed out the inning, preserving the 2 run lead.

Billy Hoeft and Jack Wilson were roughed up in the top of the 9th, with Tris Speaker, Blomberg, and Joe Sewell each going deep and providing the final margin of 10-4 in favor of Cleveland.

Doby had 2 more chances, but could not become the first player in the WBL to hit 4 out in a game.

CLE 10 (Young 11-6; Smith 1 H; Marberry 1 Sv) @ DET 4 (Marcum 6-5)
HRs: CLE – Doby 3 (23), Bailey (9), Sewell (2), Speaker (26), Blomberg (45); DET – Kaline (23).
Box Score

So, the Spiders take the series, showing a lot of who they are: more offense than pitching, and usually enough to get the job done.

#Baltimore Black Sox

Buddy Groom started a rehab assignment, and should be joined at AAA by Bobby Wallace later in the week. Once Groom is ready, look for him to replace the struggling John Wetteland in the Black Sox bullpen.

Connie Johnson and Justin Hampson combined on a 2-hit shutout, blanking Portland 7-0. Johnson’s record improved to 5-6 and, perhaps more importantly, he made a strong argument for some more opportunities as a starter.

As expected, Wallace was able to start a rehab assignment at AAA, joining Groom, who still needs some time there before being recalled.

#Cleveland Spiders

Hank Gastright was returned to AAA, with Firpo Marberry being recalled from his rehab assignment.

Tris Speaker went deep twice, but Cleveland couldn’t hold off Miami, falling 11-7 to the Cuban Giants.

Needing a starter, the Spiders returned Sergio Romo to AAA, recalling Wilbur Cooper. Faced in the same situation later in the week, Cooper went back down with Steve Gromek recalled to make his WBL debut.

The Spiders had themselves a day, battering Miami 21-0. Cy Young threw the complete game shutout, allowing 7 hits while fanning 9. But the story really was the offense, led by Ron Blomberg, who had 4 hits (including his 30th and 31st homeruns), drove in 6, and scored a WBL record 6 times. Evan Longoria drove in 7, and Longoria and Larry Doby each also had 4 hits. In addition to Blomberg’s 2, Longoria, Doby, and Louis Santop also hit homeruns.

Lance Berkman slammed 3 homeruns for the second time this season, but the Spiders couldn’t preserve a lead in the top of the 9th, losing to Los Angeles, 8-7.

Berkman may be the hottest hitter in the league right now, as he hit another 2 out in a game Cleveland won in the bottom of the 12th on a solo shot from Johnny Bates, triumphing over Los Angeles, 6-5.

#Detroit Wolverines

Pete Conway will miss over a month with a strained oblique muscle. Claude Passeau returned to the Wolverines’ bullpen from AAA.

Both Billy Hoeft and Mike Griffin began rehab assignments, looking to return next week. Later in the week, Buddy Napier returned to the injured list, expected to miss about a month, opening a spot for Hoeft’s return.

Justin Verlander closed the first half out strong, combining with Hoeft and Chad Bradford on a 3-hit shutout of Memphis. Al Kaline and Bob Bailey went deep for the Wolverines, and Ty Cobb had 2 hits to nudge his average back over .400 in the 7-0 victory.

#Memphis Red Sox

Derek Lowe returned to AAA with Skel Roach‘s recall from a rehab assignment.

Gabby Hartnett went deep twice, leading Memphis to a 10-5 victory over the Black Yankees. Manny Ramírez did the same, homering twice in a 7-3 win over New York with Len Barker improving to 6-9 with a solid outing.

#New York Black Yankees

That was fast. There was a lot of optimism around Roy Evans‘ promotion to the Black Yankees. 3 games, 4 IP, and a 27.00 ERA later, he’s back in AAA with AJ Burnett returning to the fold.

Could the answer to the back end of the Black Yankees’ rotation be … Herm Wehmeier? Wehmeier combined with Goose Gossage on a 4-hit shutout of Memphis, improving to 4-0 on the year with Gossage picking up his 10th save in the 9-0 whitewashing.

Eric Davis hit 2 out and Babe Ruth added his league-leading 41st as the Black Yankees rode a strong outing from Andy Pettitte to beat Baltimore, 12-2. Pettitte improved to 10-5 on the year. However, Ruth was plunked on the hip in the game, and will miss some time–thankfully, it looks like only a few days.

Mike Schmidt went deep twice and Thurman Munson and Derek Jeter joined Schmidt with 3 hits each as the Black Yankees defeated Baltimore in 10 innings.

Don Mattingly will miss about a week, prompting the Black Yankees to place him on the DL and recall Josh Harrison from AAA.

Bryce Harper went deep twice–one just over 500 ft.–as the Black Sox triumphed over Memphis, 12-2. As encouraging for the Black Sox was the effort from Connie Johnson, who pitched 6 scoreless innings in the victory.

The Black Sox pounded out 16 hits, including 2 homeruns from Manny Machado, in an easy 13-4 win over Cleveland.

#Cleveland Spiders

Jake Stahl–he of 26 homeruns last year–was sent to AAA to work out his swing, with the Spiders recalling C Victor Martinez, who is expected to pressure Louis Santop and John Ellis for playing time.

#Detroit Wolverines

With a staff beset by injuries, the Wolverines have moved Pete Conway into the rotation, while keeping the 5th slot undecided for the time being. They also sent George Bechtel and Ray Sadecki to the minors, recalling Mickey Lolich and Wilson Álvarez from AA.

Al Kaline went deep twice, but it was far from enough as the Wolverines fell to the Black Yankees, 15-9. Chili Davis did the same the next day, hitting 2 out in an 8-6 loss to New York.

#Memphis Red Sox

Vern Stephens‘ rough start to the year has cost him his starting job, ceding the SS role for Memphis to Dobie Moore. Dean Chance was returned to AAA in exchange for Nixey Callahan as the Red Sox found themselves short on rested starters.

#New York Black Yankees

Gary Lavelle was put on the DL, with Herm Wehmeier being recalled from AAA for a spot start.

Mickey Mantle drove in 6 and 5 Black Yankees went deep in a 15-9 win over Detroit. Hank Bauer, Tom Herr, Mike Schmidt, Don Mattingly, and Derek Jeter joined Mantle in hitting homeruns, with Herr and Bauer each scoring 3 times as New York pounded out 18 hits.

Mantle went deep twice and Babe Ruth hit his 20th of the year as the Black Yankees beat Detroit 8-6, with Andy Pettitte improving to 4-2.

A couple bullpen slots are available, but most of the focus will be on the 3B and OF.

Injuries

Justin Speier will miss the start of the season with an elbow issue.

First Cuts

Cleveland removed a few arms from its big league camp, sending General Crowder, Eric Wilkins, and Steve Gromek to the minors. Both John Keefe and Sudden Sam McDowell are still around, but neither have impressed, and need to improve if they want to survive the next round of cuts.

Sal Butera has been hitting well, and Victor Martinez has done enough to stick around, sending Ray Fosse and Andy Etchebarren down to the minors. They’ll be joined by James Loney, Aubrey Huff, Don Kessinger, and Jim Gantner (surpassed by Bobby Avila in the depth chart). Bill Phillips really hasn’t hit enough to stick around, but his defensive versatility keeps him in camp.

At SS, Bill Dahlen‘s glove continues to keep him in camp, but Joe Sewell–no slouch with the leather himself–is hitting well enough that Dahlen needs to show some improvement at the plate to survive the next round.

Which brings us to the confusion at 3B. Evan Longoria and Bob Elliott have hit well; Brandon Drury has been OK, and neither Ken Keltner nor Sammy Strang have shown much at all. In other words, nothing is much more clear than when camp opened: working this out over the next week is key for the Spiders.

The OF picture has gotten a bit clearer as four of the contenders (Luis Olmo, Randy Winn, Trot Nixon, and Bruce Campbell) combined to hit well under .200, earning a group ticket back to the minors. At the other end, Larry Doby may finally be living up to his scouting hype, starting out on fire in early action.

Second Cuts

John Keefe and Sudden Sam McDowell were unable to improve enough to stay in camp.

Hal Trosky mashed the ball in a brief WBL appearance last year, but hasn’t done enough to preserve his place with the Spiders. Trosky refused to head to minor league camp, earning him his release. Bill Phillips, Bob Elliott, Ken Keltner, and Rick Burleson were all demoted.

SS remains a concern: Joe Sewell has been fine, but both Bill Dahlen and Arky Vaughan are hitting well under .200.

Third Cuts

Sergio Romo‘s performance in a handful of games last season keeps him in camp, but he’s on the edge for sure. Balor Moore was not as lucky, as the lefty headed to minor league camp. Justin Speier, currently injured, was sent down as well.

Louis Santop has struggled, but is clearly the starting C. The battle between Victor Martinez and Sal Butera to be his backup is fierce, however.

1B is a total logjam, and a likely source of trade bait. Jake Stahl, Lance Berkman, and John Ellis are all locks, and Paul O’Neill has been the Spiders’ best hitter in camp. With Ron Blomberg slotted in as the DH, one of these four probably needs to move on.

Over at 3B, Evan Longoria may be finally delivering on his promise, and is pushing Sammy Strang as the presumed starter. Strang continues to not be able to hit, but his ability to get on base and his defense clearly have some value. That leaves the injured Brandon Drury the odd man out.

The OF is slowly clearing out, but remains overcrowded especially as Berkman and O’Neill should see some time here as well. Elmer Flick heads to AAA. A key here is the ability of Tris Speaker, Rowland Office, Peanuts Lowrey, and Johnny Bates to all develop some positional flexibility. The battle between Office and Lowrey is key, and likely to come down to whether Lowrey batting right handed means more or less than Office’s better defense and greater flexibility.

The Final Cuts

Bobby Avila was the first odd man out, a move that essentially assures Sammy Strang his spot as a reserve 2B if nothing else. Sal Butera won the competition with Victor Martinez to break camp as the backup backstop–and with John Ellis able to play there as well, there was no need for Martinez to stay in camp.

In a bit of a surprise, Peanuts Lowrey, who was useful for Cleveland last season, heads to AAA. The Spiders may regret moving out Lowrey’s right-handed bat, but the OF situation just didn’t have any remaining room. Less surprising, but still unexpected, it looks like Joe Sewell has won the backup SS role, with veteran Bill Dahlen heading to AAA.

The Spiders needed 2 cuts to make it to 30. Those were C Sal Butera and P Wilbur Cooper.

Al Smith and Sergio Romo were the final cuts from the staff, meaning both Firpo Marberry and Yordano Ventura made the roster. From there on, it was all surprises and hard choices. Kenny Lofton lost not only the starting CF spot but his roster spot, and the Spiders were unable to find a roster spot for Paul O’Neill despite him being among the Spring batting leaders. Finally, Rowland Office was squeezed out, as the Spiders’ OF was just too crowded.

Overall

One of the storylines of the year was Cleveland’s winning their division over the much-hyped Black Yankees. They did it with excellent pitching and just enough offense, but will need to do some work in the offseason to maintain their edge: MVP candidate Ron Blomberg is likely to regress and it’s unlikely all of the pitchers who made good will do so again.

What Went Right

Ron Blomberg shocked the world.

The Spiders thought they had their CF issue solved when Kenny Lofton emerged as a speedy, solid presence at the top of the lineup. Then Tris Speaker returned from injury and exploded onto the scene, essentially hitting like Blomberg, but with speed and defense over his first 100 PA’s.

Jake Stahl and John Ellis were far better than anticipated, each posting an OPS safely over .800.

Louis Santop was solid at C as a teenager.

The Spiders had seven–seven–pitchers who were strong enough to be front half of rotation starters. The top three (Pat Malone, Bill Steen, and Cy Young) were magnificent; Mel Harder was as good in limited appearances; and Whit Wyatt (injured and likely to miss the start of next season), Stan Coveleski, and Stan Bahnsen all were better than many team’s #3 arms.

Terry Adams was excellent, ending the season tied for the WBL lead in saves and Chuck Porter and Cory Gearrin were among the better setup units in the league.

ALL STARS
RP Terry Adams; OF Ron Blomberg; 2B Chuck Knoblauch; P Cy Young

What Went Wrong

The 3rd OF slot was a struggle all season: Peanuts Lowrey was decent enough, and Lance Berkman hit better for Cleveland than he did for Houston, but Lofton faded badly and both Larry Doby and Rowland Office were pretty miserable out there.

3B was an issue all year: Sammy Strang gets on base, but offers little else, but neither Evan Longoria nor Jim Gantner did even that.

Arky Vaughan was acquired at some cost to solidify the SS position, but while he was better than Bill Dahlen, Bill Knickerbocker, or Mickey Doolin, he still struggled.

On the mound, not much: Bob Feller was inconsistent but he’s 20. Ron Reed was OK, but not the world-beater he was with Philadelphia. That’s really not a lot to complain about.

Transactions

March

IF Jim Thome & OF Gus Bell to Miami for IF Evan Longoria

Looks like a loss: Thome struggled but Longoria was miserable.

June

OF Andrew Payne, P Hardie Henderson, OF Darrell Miller & OF Gibby Brack for RP Ron Reed

It seemed fine at the time, but unless Reed recovers his form, it may be a loss.

OF Harry Stovey, 1B Charlie Grimm, P Chad Qualls & 3rd Round Pick to Houston for OF Lance Berkman

At Berkman’s best, this is a good deal; during his slumps, though …

July

IF Nap Lajoie, P Arodys Vizcaíno & 1st Round Pick to Homestead for SS Arky Vaughan

Clearly overpaid. At the same time, the notion was to solidify the infield for a final playoff push, which it almost did.

Looking Forward

SP

The pitching is excellent right now, but only Bob Feller and Cy Young look to be around long term. As such, the Spiders are looking both for young arms and see this as a sign their window for championship competition may be small.

RP

Another strong group, with probably the most interesting arm behind the trio of Terry Adams, Cory Gearrin, and Ron Reed being Firpo Marberry at AAA.

C

Should be Louis Santop for a long, long time.

1B

Ron Blomberg is here, with Jake Stahl and Hal Trosky pushing for time should he stumble.

2B

Chuck Knoblauch looks solid for the time being.

3B

A bit of a mess: it would be great if someone between Sammy Strang, Ken Keltner, and Evan Longoria would step up and take control of this position.

SS

Arky Vaughan was brought in to solidify this position, and will be given at least a year to do that, although Joe Sewell may pressure him. Worst case, the trio of Bill Dahlen, Mickey Doolin, and Bill Knickerbocker have all shown the ability to field at an elite level, although none of them can hit.

LF

Johnny Bates for now, with Paul O’Neill looking decent in the minors.

CF

There is a real glut here. Tris Speaker has basically seized this spot, but the Spiders are looking at moving him to LF to take advantage of Kenny Lofton‘s speed and defense in CF. Larry Doby may also move to a corner spot, if he ever shows an ability to hit WBL pitching.

RF

See above: currently open, but Blomberg will play there some as well.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The Spiders didn’t have a 1st round pick, and then only have a single selection for the rest of the rounds of the draft: they need a lot of talent, so it may be a challenge to fill it all.

That starts with SP Howard Ehmke, a franchise selection who is a few years away from the WBL. Missing out on Carlos Baerga by a single selection may hurt–not only does he play positions the Spiders need, but he would have been a franchise selection. Instead, in round 3, Cleveland takes Justin Turner, perhaps anticipating that by the time the IF is ready for the WBL, their 3B situation will have clarified.

Rounds 5-8

Cleveland will focus on pitching, 2B, 3B, and OF depth.

That begins with Bill Drake in round 5 and 3B Aubrey Huff in round 6 and OF Bruce Campbell in round 7 and IF Johnny Hodapp in round 8.

Rounds 9-12

1B Bill Phillips; 3B Brandon Drury; P Al Smith; P Charlie Knepper.

There’s really just one.

Mea Culpa and Massive Overperformance

These are both issues with the OOTP engine and failures of me as the ultimate arbiter of the WBL universe. The exemplars here–and really the only truly egregious examples–are Ron Blomberg and Elrod Hendricks, both of whom were superstars in Year I, a status they never, ever approached in real life.

This is part of the challenge of doing this on your own–my sense of baseball history has blind spots. I had thought Blomberg had a couple good, full time seasons, but only really remembered him, like most of us, as the first DH. In real life, injuries and a huge platoon split prevented him from ever approaching full time usage. In the WBL, not only did he play 150 G, he far outperformed anything he did irl, slashing 336/412/649 with 44 HRs and 125 RBIs.

Hendricks is even more embarrassing–I had remembered, woefully incorrectly, Elrod Hendricks as having a career similar to Cliff Johnson‘s. If Johnson hit 40+ HRs in a sim, I would squint and say, wow, that’s kind of cool. Johnson certainly had that potential, he just never actually did it. But Hendricks never even showed the capacity to do that. In hindsight, I may even have been confusing Hendricks with Elston Howard, to my profound embarrassment.

I have pretty wide tolerances here, fwiw. I think Doug Rader having a career surpassing year (a 135 OPS+ is far higher than Rader had as a full time player) is fine. Rader was a good player, a decent hitter throughout his career. It feels possible. Now, if he does it year over year, there’s an issue. But this kind of outlier year for a player of Rader’s caliber is fine for me. Similarly, Mike Fiore finishing second in the league in walks seems fine: it is his 1969 season, and, if anything, his WBL slash line of 240/405/390 underperforms his real life 274/420/428. Here the challenge is to make sure Fiore, while perhaps better in year 2 and 3 than irl, does indeed fall off a cliff, with the 1969 year an unexplained success.

The Blomberg and Hendricks seasons are just too far outside the pale.

There are a couple of things at work here. First, I need to have a practice of looking at the overperformers more thoroughly. Second, I need to figure out what levers within OOTP to lean on. There are three I know of right now:

• OOTP does allow us to set a usage limit, below which it depresses stats. I have that set at 300 AB for hitters, and could raise it. But that just moves the bar, right? No matter where you put the bar, there will be someone who consistently falls just outside of it.
• Manually reducing ratings. Perfectly fine with this, but not really a fan of it. It’s a little too much of a thumb on the scale for MLB players (I do it for NeL players, but that’s because I use my own MLE’s).
• Injuries. This is the more likely route I would take. If I had recognized just how out of bounds Hendricks and Blomeberg’s performances were, I would have just upped their injury ratings significantly. This keeps an interesting narrative (man, if he could only stay healthy) while retaining a sense of luck (maybe he does stay healthy) while most likely reducing these outlying performances.

So, a pretty important thing to monitor in Year 2, imo.

Smaller Things

Triples & NeL Players

This is sort of a philosophical decision. There are two schools of thought out there. They are, broadly

• NeL baseball (I am using this term to refer to all of the non-MLB environments) was fundamentally different, full of more daring, more speed, more creativity. This resulted in more triples and, perhaps oddly, fewer doubles.

and

• Meh, that’s nonsense for a lot of reasons, and if you are combining these histories, you need to adjust that, essentially increasing 2B and depressing 3B so the overall universe of players is relatively evenly distributed.

Philosphically, I tend towards the latter–I don’t think NeL players were somehow “better at hitting triples,” and I don’t think they were universally faster (although some were each of those things). But practically, as MLE’s are created, the tend towards the former.

Certainly Year I did: 5 of the top 9 leaders in triples were NeL players. But it dropped off to 7 of the top 25 (that ranges from Louis Santop, the league leader with 14 to Pete Hill, one of 8 players who finished the season with 6 three baggers). There may be less here than meets the eye: if it weren’t for the presence of Santop and Josh Gibson (both catchers, of course, but also both under 20 at the start of the season) maybe this doesn’t even get noticed?

Something to track in Year II.

Money Money Money … Money

The initial salaries for the league were totally randomly invented. Turns out they were far too low: FA’s are demanding more in salary than the retained stars. So I just need to fiddle and figure it out. The goal is that each franchise has certain players they have 3-year and 5-year rights to, but those players should have highish comp, I think.

Time & Opportunity Cost

I played every single game. By hand. And only mis-clicked, issuing an intentional walk by mistake, a few times.

I enjoyed doing that. I really like the slow unfolding of the season, and I really like not seeing the AI do inexplicable things to the detriment of some team. I really like being able to massage the two-way players the way I want to. Lots of likes.

But I am not a young man.

At 3 real life years per season, I am unlikely to get more than 10 seasons out of the WBL. Which would barely see the current young players reach their peaks, let alone their retirements.

So I need to do something differently. Maybe not in Year 2, but at some point I’ll have to find a way to move through the seasons more quickly, most likely by playing certain weeks or months via the AI.

AI April? Machine managed May? Something.

Even Smaller Things

NeL Defense

Just a learning curve, need to slightly nerf NeL defense ratings.

Closers

38 saves to lead the league feels a little light. More, the number of closers who actually pitched pretty poorly was a little high, most notably Detroit’s Mike Henneman, who led the league in saves for most of the season. Cleveland’s Terry Adams tied him in the final weak, but Adams’ ERA was 2 runs lower (and his FIP just slightly below 2 runs better). At the same time, both had WHIPs that weren’t great, so … maybe not a real issue? Relievers are weird.

Base 10 Numbering

I don’t know why I started numbering TWIWBL’s with .0. But it made everything a bit more confusing, and starting with these, we’re going to start each series of TWIWBL with .1. Because that’s, you know, normal.

Overall Statistical Model

Somewhat arbitrarily, I used 2000 as the base year for Year I. MLB produced its 2nd highest ever OPS that season, slashing a cumulative 270/345/437. Year I of the WBL ended at 268/339/433.

That’s pretty darn close.

Year I was actually an almost perfect match for 2006’s 269/337/432.

So, yeah, offense heavy, but not more than asked for.

All Around Player Performance

Tomorrow I’ll publish what didn’t go so well, and the biggest thing is a couple specific outlier performances. But, so much about the league felt right. Babe Ruth did Babe Ruth things, sure.

But the all-around players were also dominant in a great way: Eddie Collins may have been the best player in the league, Willie Mays‘ impact was irresistible. Players who had “career years” (Tom Herr, Doug Rader, even Eric Davis) did so well within the overall shape of their MLB careers.

Pitching was weird as always. But the list of those at the front of the “best starter in the league” ranking was a great list: Walter Johnson, Gerrit Cole, Jack Taylor, Andy Pettitte, Christy Mathewson? Sure. Pettitte and Taylor overperformed, but pitching–and especially of course W/L records–are weird. Ron Guidry had a great year according to the deep stats, but struggled in the traditional evaluations.

And lots of pitchers struggled, which, again, feels about right.

NeL Players

The all-time greats may feel a little under-represented, but that’s largely because of the career perspective of the WBL. Cristóbal Torriente, Pete Hill, Oscar Charleston, and Louis Santop were each everyday starters by the end of the season despite being teenagers. Martín Dihigo and John Beckwith struggled a bit, but again, teenagers.

Here’s an overview of how the NeL entries did.

There are, of course, some others in the minor leagues–A. Rube Foster (9-2, 4.60 ERA across 5 minor league teams), Cool Papa Bell (252/304/339 with 39 SB, mostly at AA), some others.

Continuity

I started the first season of the WBL something like 40/45 years ago. The third season was completed over 20 years ago. This season–the first on OOTP, the fourth overall–was completed in about 3 years.

Across all of that–from handheld Strat-O-Matic play through SOM on a half-dozen different computers (beginning on a Commodore 64, natch) through 3 versions of OOTP–it feels similar. Storylines emerge that I enjoy, frustrations emerge at players underperforming, personalities of teams and franchises begin to appear.

I love all that.

I have no idea what to do with the first 3 years–the teams were totally different, some players occur in this version as well, many do not. If I can find an easy way to incorporate that history, I may do so, but I don’t see it yet. Shock of shocks, Babe Ruth would be the career HR leader …