Playing .500 ball would be a nice step; doing so while nurturing some talent for the future would begin to raise hopes in Indianapolis.

Best Case

Some starting pitching comes out of nowhere to support the continued development of Doc White and Willie Mitchell, Johnny Bench and Oscar Charleston anchor the offense, and some of the MI talent finally emerges fully onto the scene. The 6 man rotation turns out to be a thing of beauty, allowing the ABC’s to maximize their talent on the mound.

Worst Case

Only Bench remains as a real offensive force and the pitching stays totally muddled, with the 6 man rotation confusing fans, pundits, and players alike.

Key Questions

• Who starts, and does the team retain its experimentation with a 6-man rotation?
• How do the uncertainties at SS/3B resolve?

Trade Bait

Not enough talent to really be active.

Davey Concepción was sent to the Gothams in exchange for Sad Sam Jones, adding another arm to the pile and clearing one person from the MI crowd.

Roster Evaluation

That is a lot of new arms on the staff, and a lot of unknowns. But performance last year was so bad, you would think anything would be an improvement.

Some interesting things here, though: the continued use of the 6 man rotation, the emergence of Luis Padrón as a 2-way threat, the promise of some of the young talent, especially Oscar Charleston.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

Nolan and Foster start the year with the WBL club. There’s decent help on the mound working through the system, but little else, especially if Ventura ends up being a bust.

All the focus will be on the pitching staff, with the reserve positions also taking some attention.

Injuries

CF Edd Roush is doubtful for opening day with a back injury.

Hal White saw his slim hopes of making the ABC’s roster dashed as a torn labrum will keep him out of action for around 4 months.

First Cuts

Some of the pitching clarified: Tom Glavine, Paul Derringer, and Chris Hammond were each sent down to the minors. That leaves a lot of arms in camp, but the next week should sort out quite a few of them.

Cs Larry Pratt and Admiral Schlei were sent down as well, along with corner IFs Hal Morris, Edwin Encarnación, and Dan Driessen, clearing up a lot of the logjam at 1B. Tommy Helms and Buddy Myer were also moved out of camp.

In the middle infield, Dario Lodigiani and Davey Concepción have both been turning heads at 2B and SS respectively, while Lonny Frey, hitless over 6 games, was sent down.

Joe Keough has been quite impressive, but the other longshot OFers (Emil Frisk, Charlie Hemphill, and Curt Walker) were all sent down after the first week.

Second Cuts

Tony Mullane and Eppa Rixey were sent to AAA.

The ABC’s still believe in Robin Ventura, preferring to keep him in camp over teenager Bob Aspromonte, despite the latter having a slight edge in performance.

Nobody is hitting at 2B, with Joe Morgan and Denis Menke combining to go zero for 30. Their performance last year keeps them around, but Craig Counsell, lacking that pedigree, cannot overcome his sub .400 OPS.

The OF remains overcrowded, with 10 players still in camp. The bottom performers–Danny Hoffman, Jake Stenzel, and the injured Edd Roush–did enough last year, and the newcomers–Adam Dunn, George Foster, Pete Rose, and Joe Keough–are all hitting well.

Third Cuts

The pitching staff is very slowly coming into focus, with Virgil Trucks‘ and Jim Maloney‘s demotion. Maloney pitched well but at 19 needs some more seasoning–especially to master his control issues–before joining the WBL club.

Bo Díaz, Sean Casey, and Pete Rose were sent to AAA.

It was assumed that Denis Menke would be the opening day SS–and he likely will be–but his inability to hit combined with decent performances from both Barry Larkin and Davey Concepción are pushing him.

Three presumed OF contributors–Jake Stenzel, Edd Roush, and Danny Hoffman–are all struggling, while George Foster and Joe Keough are playing very well, throwing the ABC’s reserve OF situation into some chaos (Oscar Charleston, Dave Henderson, and Bob Bescher are all solid as starters).

Final Cuts

Tony Mullane was returned to AAA to clear some space in the rotation. Mullane refused to head to the minors, and ended up being released–making him immediately perhaps the best arm in the FA market.

The battle to carry Johnny Bench‘s glove is reduced by one, as Bo Díaz heads to the minors. Robin Ventura continues to fumble every opportunity, and with Ed Charles mashing the ball, Ventura will start this season at AAA.

Edd Roush started excellently last season but faded mightily at the end of the year. An injury in Spring Training has limited Roush’s time and effectiveness. Essentially, the ABC’s were looking to retain only one of Roush and Danny Hoffman at the big league level: it’ll be Hoffman as Roush heads to AAA.

RP Octavio Dotel, C/1B Patsy Gharrity, 1B Dick Hoblitzell, and 2B Dario Lodigiani were all sent to AAA to bring the ABC’s to 30.

The next decisions were easy, with both Red Faber and Rob Dibble going on the 10 Day DL, with Faber likely to miss 4 months of time with a knee issue. Additionally Dolf Luque was moved to AAA, as was OF Joe Keough. With the ABC’s planning to keep George Foster with the team, that meant one more OF had to go and, after much deliberation, Danny Hoffman was deemed the odd man out.

Overall

Just a very average performance. There are some good pieces here, and the organization as a whole is quite young, but until the pitching is sorted, nothing else is going to really matter.

What Went Right

Most of all, Johnny Bench. Bench is a superstar C, giving Indianapolis an edge in a difficult position to fill.

Beyond that there were a few surprises–neither Jake Stenzel or Dennis Menke were on many preseason lists to be strong offensive players, and Joey Votto was excellent in limited action after being recalled from the minors–and there was some promise for the future, most of all in Joe Morgan and Oscar Charleston, who were fine this year, but were also quite young (Charleston began the season as a teenager).

Dave Henderson, Bob Bescher, and Danny Hoffman were all perfectly acceptable in the OF.

Robin Ventura finally showed some promise after arriving via trade.

Willie Mitchell and Doc White, both of whom started the season in the bullpen, were the ABC’s best pitchers by the end of the season. Johnny Cueto was fine as a starter as well.

Rob Dibble was a first rate closer for Indianapolis.

ALL STARS
C Johnny Bench

What Went Wrong

1B was a right mess until Votto showed up; 3B Ed Charles faded badly after promising starts. Barry Larkin and Davey Concepción–one of whom is supposed to be the SS of the future–were awful.

But most of what went wrong was on the mound. The trio of Red Faber, Rube Foster, and Dolf Luque were thoroughly mediocre as starters, and Rob Murphy and Lefty James the same out of the pen.

Transactions

March

IF Miller Huggins & OF Willie Montañez to Baltimore for P Rube Foster

Foster wasn’t great, but he was a WBL player all season, so this seems fine.

June

C Ernie Lombardi to Detroit for IF Donie Bush, IF Jorge Orta, P Brandon League, OF Gene Martin & 2nd Round Pick {Matt Chapman}

It looks like more than it is, but with Lombardi blocked by Bench in Indianapolis, moving him is fine.

July

P David Price and IF Jorge Orta to Chicago for 3B Robin Ventura, P Tyler Clippard, 4th Round Pick & 5th Round Pick {Pete O'Brien}

It all hinges on whether the Ventura who showed up for Indianapolis in September is a mirage or not.

Looking Forward

SP

Such a random assortment of good-but-not-great here. Luis Padrón, Eppa Rixey, and Dolf Luque should be the long term front of rotation guys, but that doesn’t exactly strike terror in the hearts of the opposing team. An area of need.

RP

Solid, with Rob Dibble at closer and some mix of Clay Carroll, Rob Murphy, Octavio Dotel, and Norm Charlton behind him.

C

For as long as he’s healthy, it’s all about Johnny Bench.

1B

Joey Votto did well, but he’s 31 and unlikely to improve making this an area of need long term.

2B

Joe Morgan should be here for quite some time.

3B

Unknown. If Robin Ventura shows up, it’s his; if not, this is a bit of a black hole.

SS

Right now, it’s Dennis Menke; longer term, this should be either Barry Larkin or Davey Concepción, with the other being expendable. My bet would be on Larkin, despite his struggles this year.

LF

Some mixture of Bob Bescher and Adam Dunn are keeping this spot warm for George Foster.

CF

This should be Oscar Charleston‘s home for a long time.

RF

Unknown, although many in the organization see Pete Rose stepping up here.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

There are a few pitchers who look to be only a year or two from helping their WBL franchise, with Tom Glavine probably the best of them. That made the ABC’s pick in the first round pretty easy. In the 2nd round, franchise arm Jim Maloney was still available, who projects as a rotation starter, maybe.

Looking for some insurance in case Ventura doesn’t pan out, the ABC’s picked up 20 year old 3B Matt Chapman at the end of the 2nd round.

In the 3rd round, they took Maloney, version 2: another franchise arm with an outside shot at being useful, Bob Ewing; and in the 4th, slick fielding MI Leo Cardenas.

Rounds 5-8

These rounds should focus on position players: in the 5th round, 3B Oliver Marcelle and OF Pete O’Brien; in the 6th, OF Chris Dickerson and C Admiral Schlei; OF Adam Duvall in the 7th, and IF Pokey Reese in the 8th.

Rounds 9-12

P Jack Billingham; Pete Schourek; C Patsy Gharrity; and P The Only Nolan.

Overall

Memphis had a rough year: the pitching was never very good, and there were a ton of disappointments on the offensive side as well. If they can find some pitching, however, there may be no team in the league better positioned for a bounce back, and they ended the year on a 17-4 record, perhaps indicating better times are coming.

What Went Right

There were some things. OF Reggie Smith and Ted Williams look like elite players, despite Williams’ late season slide. Smith is 23, Williams 21, so that should lock up 2 of the Red Sox’s OF slots for a while.

Billy Bryan hit very well in limited action, and both Bill White and Wade Boggs looked solid as well.

Sammy Sosa did very well after being obtained in a mid-season trade, posting a SLG of .551 with Memphis.

Stubby Overmire was a pleasant surprise after arriving from Houston, finishing 3rd in the WBL in ERA. He, Dean Chance and, when healthy, Bill Doak looked solid as starters and Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell were each fantastic in the bullpen.

ALL STARS
RP Craig Kimbrel; OF Reggie Smith; OF Ted Williams

What Went Wrong

Neither Mookie Betts nor Manny Ramírez did enough, both being surpassed by Sosa on the depth chart (and with even more OF talent in the minors, it’s not clear if their futures lie with Memphis).

The MI was a mess all year, although Claude Ritchey did well enough at the end of the season to lay a claim for next year. Francisco Lindor and Dustin Pedroia were especially disappointing, leaving the Red Sox far too reliant on Iván De Jesús throughout the season (a fine utility part, not a starter).

The rest of the starting staff was a mess, either far too inconsistent (Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield) or just plain bad (Nixey Callahan especially).

Trade Evaluations

March

None

June

P Roger Clemens to Houston for OF Hack Wilson, P Jim Kaat, 2B DJ LeMahieu, P Stubby Overmire & 5th Round Pick {Nathan Eovaldi}

Clemens was struggling mightily in Memphis, and this is a nice haul of talent in return.

P Joe Beggs to Baltimore for P Willie Sudhoff, OF Alex Johnson & 4th Round Pick {Bill Lee}

Beggs’ age (33) makes this OK, I guess.

OF Tony Conigliaro, OF Fred Lynn & 2nd Round Pick to House of David for OF Sammy Sosa & 5th Round Pick

Seemed quite questionable at the time, but Sosa’s performance since has made this look like a win for the Red Sox.

July

C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick to Birmingham for IF Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor

Taylor is the best player in the deal, which usually would mean Memphis wins this one.

Looking Forward

SP

There is just so little talent here long term. Derek Lowe? I guess. A real weakness.

RP

Not bad. Papelbon and Bell for now, along with help from Joe Kelly and the continued effectiveness of Tim Wakefield as a swingman.

C

An area of need, especially if Billy Bryan stumbles. Jason Varitek has some promise and Kurt Suzuki showed outstanding defensive potential in a short trial (although he couldn’t hit a lick).

1B

Bill White did fine here, but he’s really just warming the spot for prospect David Ortiz.

2B

The Red Sox would love to see either DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia make this position theirs long term.

3B

Wade Boggs should be good here for a long time, although room will eventually need to be made for Candy Jim Taylor.

SS

Vern Stephens was supposed to be the answer, and if not Stephens, Francisco Lindor. Neither showed much, so there is some concern here.

LF

Ted Williams for at least a decade.

CF

Reggie Smith has this locked down, although Hack Wilson looks intriguing down the road.

RF

OK, this just gets messy. Somehow, between RF and DH, the Red Sox need to find playing time for Sammy Sosa, Mookie Betts, and Manny Ramírez, with Dwight Evans coming right behind them.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The most confounding spot in the draft so far is Memphis at #6. The Red Sox don’t have a 2nd round pick, and Carl Yastrzemski is unlikely to be around by the 3rd round. But the team is so deep at 1B/OF right now … there are two options here: take Yaz and make it tomorrow’s problem, capitalizing on his franchise status or take one of the young pitchers who will help them sooner, likely either Tom Glavine or Zack Greinke.

At the end of the day, the team decided to draft on talent over need, selecting Yastremski.

The Red Sox were thrilled that Dobie Moore was still around in the 3rd round, and hope the 25 year old can step right into the starting role at SS.

They took Bill Lee with the final pick of the 4th round.

Rounds 5-8

While more arms are never a bad thing, the Red Sox system is fairly sparse in 1B and OFers. So their 5th round picks are 1B Joe Cunningham, P Nathan Eovaldi, and P Dick Drago. With Eovaldi and Drago being franchise picks, it’s not clear what will compel Memphis to use its remaining exceptions.

One was spent on OF George Case in the 6th round, but franchise pitcher Mickey McDermott was the best arm available in the 7th round. While it’s not clear where he’ll actually play, it is obvious that Charlie Smith can hit, making him a potential steal in the 8th round with their final franchise exception.

Rounds 9-12

P Allen Russell; OF Troy O’Leary; P Dale Mohorcic; and P Connor Seabold.

Round One

1. P Bullet Joe Rogan (Philadelphia)
2. OF Vladimir Guerrero (Miami)
3. P Hilton Smith (Kansas City)
4. P Clayton Kershaw (Homestead)
5. P Max Scherzer (Ottawa)
6. OF Carl Yastrzemski (Memphis)
7. OF Turkey Stearnes (San Francisco)
8. OF Ichiro Suzuki (Los Angeles)
9. P Tom Glavine (Indianapolis)
10. IF Ed Delahanty (Brooklyn)
11. IF Edgar Martinez (Houston)
12. P David Cone (New York Black Yankees)
13. P Zack Greinke (House of David)
14. C Joe Torre (Birmingham)
15. P Dave Stieb (Philadelphia)
16. OF Ralph Kiner (Homestead)
17. OF Al Simmons (Brooklyn)
18. P Jacob deGrom (Chicago)
19. C Bill Freehan (Detroit)
20. OF Chuck Klein (Portland)

Supplemental Round 1

1. P Jon Matlack (Portland)

Round Two

1. OF Hugh Duffy (Portland)
2. OF Julio Rodríguez (Miami)
3. OF Earl Averill (Kansas City)
4. P Tim Lincecum (Homestead)
5. P Al Orth (Ottawa)
6. P Bill Lee (House of David)
7. 3B Judy Johnson (Homestead)
8. OF Babe Herman (Los Angeles)
9. P Jim Maloney (Indianapolis)
10. P Dazzy Vance (Brooklyn)
11. OF César Cedeño (Houston)
12. C Darren Daulton (House of David)
13. 1B Cody Bellinger (House of David)
14. P Matt Morris (Kansas City)
15. P Walter Ball (Portland)
16. P Howard Ehmke (Cleveland)
17. P Josh Beckett (Miami)
18. 2B Trea Turner (Birmingham)
19. 3B Matt Chapman (Indianapolis)
20. P Jack Quinn (Kansas City)

Round Three

1. P Bruce Hurst (Philadelphia)
2. OF Brett Gardner (New York Black Yankees)
3. IF Carlos Baerga (Kansas City)
4. IF Justin Turner (Cleveland)
5. 1B Elbie Fletcher (Ottawa)
6. SS Dobie Moore (Memphis)
7. OF Gary Matthews (Birmingham)
8. IF Marcus Semien (Los Angeles)
9. P Bob Ewing (Indianapolis)
10. OF George Selkirk (Brooklyn)
11. C Will Smith (Houston)
12. P Bill Gatewood (Philadelphia)
13. OF Roy Thomas (Miami)
14. OF José Cruz (Birmingham)
15. P Harry Staley (Houston)
16. IF Garry Templeton (Houston)
17. P Dan Haren (Ottawa)
18. OF Lenny Dykstra (Chicago)
19. P Frank Lary (Detroit)
20. OF Topsy Hartsel (Baltimore)