Overall

This was such a weird year for Birmingham. They were absolute horrid out of the gate, very strong from June through August, and then faded at the end. During all of that, they (once again) traded away an all star, found some surprising talent on their own roster, and scored way too few runs, despite hitting the ball out of the park with shocking regularity.

Once more it feels like the Black Barons are a couple strokes of luck away from either championship contention or being the worst team in the league. It all centers around making the offense more effective overall, and realizing some of the immense potential in their starting rotation.

What Went Right

Jim Pagliaroni exceeds all expectations, hitting for geometrically more power than anyone could have expected. His .958 OPS made him an elite catcher in the WBL. At 32, it may not last, but it was quite a shock, for sure.

Hank Aaron is right on the verge of superstardom, leading the team in HR (51) and RBI (105). He only drew 16 walks, emblematic of some of Birmingham’s team-wide struggles.

Two players brought in via trade excelled–or, more accurately, performed pretty much as expected. Paul Konerko and Ryan Braun each showed extraordinary power, and Konerko’s plate discipline is desperately needed in Birmingham.

At 23, Eddie Mathews’46 homeruns, 90 RBIs, 99 runs, and 80 walks sure seem like things that went right. But a .224 average and only 12 non-homerun extra base hits are not great.

Harley Young emerged as an excellent option at the back of the bullpen, finishing the year with 15 saves and a 2.29 ERA.

Akinori Otsuka, another trade acquisition, immediately steps into the setup role to get Young the ball.

Fred Fussell was excellent in limited work, laying claim to a role in the bullpen next year.

ALL STARS
Harley Young.
Jim Whitney was selected, but later traded.

MAJOR AWARDS

Ryan Braun, NL 2nd Team of the Year
Paul Konerko, NL Team of the Year

RECOGNITIONS

JP Arencibia, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Fred Fussell, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Albert Belle, NL Over 30 Team
Paul Konerko, NL Over 30 Team
Jim Pagliaroni, NL Over 30 Team

ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Jim Pagliaroni, MVP
Harley Young, Pitcher of the Year
Hank Aaron, Heart & Soul
JP Arencibia, Fan Favorite

Gio González, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Melky Cabrera, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Despite decent speed and walk rate, Cupid Childs‘s offense was so weak, the Black Barons decided to move on, trading for Bobby Grich. Grich belongs here, too, as while the overall shape of his offense is very strong, the level of performance is distressingly low.

SS was weak all year, eventually devolving into a platoon between Herman Long and Troy Tulowitzki. An upgrade here would be quite a boon.

It’s not clear what to do with Curtis Granderson: 41 homers is good, but a .206 average is most certainly not and, when you think of it, 41 homers with a SLG below .500 is pretty worrisome.

Adrián González continues to be a disappointment, hitting just enough to keep squandering his opportunities. His platoon split was pretty profound, so that may be the solution here next season.

And then there’s the pitching. All the pitching.

We can start with Greg Maddux (10-14, 5.35) and Alejandro Peña (8-11, 5.59), who allowed 109 homeruns between them. Maddux has great stuff, but cannot seem to harness it and Peña looks little more than innings eater at this point.

Bruce Chen had 12 holds, but was rocked more often then not, posting a 6.85 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP.

Warren Spahn continues to be terrible in the WBL, posting an ERA over 8 across 56 innings.

Transactions

March

P Andy Pettitte, OF Mickey Rivers, 3rd Round Pick to NYY for OF Albert Belle, P Frank Viola, P Lefty Gomez, IF Jess Barbour.

A win for both teams, and a trade that still may work out for Birmingham: Belle has been as advertised, Gomez looks a mid-rotation WBL starter, and both Viola and Barbour hold promise.

OF Bill Buckner, OF Joe Rudi to MEM for OF David Justice, IF Ozzie Albies, 2nd Round Pick.

Who knows? Only Rudi has seen the WBL, but they all have some potential, although time is running out for the 32-year old Justice.

July

Birmingham still felt they had a shot at this point, and decided to make some noise, trading Whitney–a clear all-star having a great season–to try to bring their offense up a notch.

P Jim Whitney, OF Andy Pafko, OF José Cruz, 2nd Round Pick to MCG for OF Ryan Braun, IF Richie Sexson, 7th Round Pick.

Whitney is a rare gem on the mound, and ultimately Birmingham may regret this deal, especially with how well Pafko performed for Miami. But Braun is a great talent, and will only see more time as Belle and Konerko age.

August

And now, an even more desperate play for offense.

P Sam Streeter, IF Trea Turner, 5th Round Pick to CAG for P Akinori Otsuka, IF Paul Konerko, OF Lenny Dykstra, 3rd Round Pick.

Chicago was tanking at this point. Trade feels fine–Otskuka and Konerko’s present value for Turner’s future, and whatever the American Giants can get from Streeter.

C Gene Tenace, P Vic Wilis, 1st Round Pick to LAA for IF Bobby Grich, 3rd Round Pick.

This one came out of nowhere. Grich may be a solve at 2B for Birmingham for years to come, but the price was steep: Willis has a very live arm and a first round pick is a first round pick (Tenace is good, but was pretty blocked here, so his loss is more acceptable).

Positional Overview

C

An interesting challenge for Birmingham here. Pagliaroni clearly is the incumbent, and the fan base fell in love with Arencibia, who also can help out at 1B.

But Joe Torre slashed 282/362/584 at AAA as a 21 year old, and his WBL arrival has to be imminent.

Beyond that, only Earl Battey looks to have a WBL future at some point down the road.

1B

This will be Konerko for a while: his core skillset (power and walks) ages well.

If Adrián González doesn’t impress in Spring Training, look for young Nate Colbert to get a chance, although Colbert probably needs another year in the minors.

There’s some depth here: Frank McCormick, Hal Trosky, Ron Fairly, and Jake Beckley all have some WBL talent.

2B

We’ll see. The Black Barons traded Tom Herr, were shocked by how effective Cupid Childs was, then decided to move on, anointing Bobby Grich as their future. Grich does seem to be the real deal, even if his production this year was lower than hoped.

Ray Durham will get a chance in the Spring to be Grich’s backup.

Beyond that, there is some decent youth: Ozzie Albies, Marcus Giles, Jess Barbour, and Reddy Mack all have some talent and all are under 22.

SS

This is an issue throughout the system.

Right now, it looks like the platoon between Long and Tulowitzki will continue, with George McBride available at AAA if a purely defensive situation were desired.

3B

It’s still Eddie Mathews, and there is hope his overall offensive performance will nudge upwards.

If he falters, the most likely help would come from Pie Traynor.

LF/RF

This is set, with Braun in one corner and Aaron on the other.

Tommy Davis was spectacular in September, but the 23 year old would probably be better served by starting at AAA as opposed to warming the bench.

Gary Matthews is probably the best talent here, but he’s several years off.

CF

This is Granderson’s role for now, but there are rumors that Curt Flood may be given a strong look, and the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year, Melky Cabrera, is coming behind Flood.

DH

Albert Belle is going to see most of the time here, although there are emerging concerns about his bat speed.

SP

It’s probably one more year of hoping that Peña, Maddux, and Lefty Gomez can turn it around, with John Malarkey and Rube Melton the most likely to round out the rotation, although Warren Spahn and Bill Phyle will get looks in Spring Training as well.

There are some voices advocating that Peña move to the bullpen, which would open up another rotation spot.

There’s some likely help at AAA in Pretzels Getzien, Alex Malloy, and Charlie Morton, but the highest ceilings in the organization are probably teenager Steve Avery and Gio González at AA.

RP

Harley Young is the presumed closer, with Otsuka and Fussell assured of spots as well. As long as Chen doesn’t retire or totally bomb out in Spring Training, he should be there as well.

There’s a lot of moderately useful talent in the minors, but only Carlos Diaz and, perhaps, Steve Bedrosian, have arms that truly impress.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 0

This is not the year the system gets replenished. SS and 3B may be the areas of greatest need.

This is everyone who qualified for the ERA crown, plus a heaping handful of others who made at least 10 starts during the season. If a player had less than 162 innings, they are (a) probably knocked down a tier and (b) their name is prefaced by a * and italicized.

We’ve leaned on valuing IP in these rankings, perhaps a bit too much. But these are your starters, and they need to show up, game after game. It also means the Tiers are a little different: there are D-Tier pitchers here that you would welcome at the back end of your rotation, and it’s really only some of them, and the F Tier, that are truly an issue.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3. Pitchers with below 162 IP aren’t included in the top/bottom markers.

#S Tier

Just look at all that bold.

It’s been these 3 all year, and there’s a hair’s breadth between them. The analytics like Toad Ramsey, but Luis Padrón‘s record is stunning and while his ERA crown came by the absolute thinnest of margins, it did come.

Knuckleballers are always a bit unpredictable season-to-season, and it may very well be that A. Rube Foster has the best career of these three. But great things are expected of each of them.

#A Tier

Lefty Grove and Smokey Joe Williams each have an argument to move up a tier, but are held back, Grove’s instance by his ERA, in Williams’ by his record. Still, they are the class of this group.

If José Méndez hadn’t led the league in innings, he would probably drop down a level, but we’re nitpicking: these are staff aces on most teams. Note that Miami, Brooklyn, and Kansas City already have 2 pitchers each on this list.

#B Tier

Hardie Henderson, Roger Clemens, and perhaps Eddie Plank (but that would be giving an awful lot of weight on 20 victories) could all be nudged up, but I’m comfortable with this. These are all front of rotation hurlers, with the only real surprise being Brett Anderson, who quietly excelled in a difficult year for Los Angeles. Ed Walsh, last year’s Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump entirely.

If you’re looking for skepticism, both Ice Box Chamberlain (due to age) and Kyle Peterson (due to coming out of nowhere) are decent bets to regress.

#C Tier

Gaylord Perry and JM Ward were perhaps the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year: a bit of good fortune, and either could be several tiers above. If anyone is ranked too highly, it’s probably Bill Steen. There are a lot of names here that could easily take a step forward–Steve Carlton, Don Drysdale, and Walter Johnson especially.

Sandy Koufax blossomed in the bullpen after losing his rotation spot, but Brooklyn is likely to try him again as a starter next season.

Joe Rogan is just a remarkable talent. Everyone else here has great value solely from being on the mound: add Rogan’s bat and … yoikes.

#D Tier

There are some absolute conundrums here. Greg Maddux‘s issues are obvious in the final column: his BABIP is top-3 in the league, showing just how good his stuff is. But he has to keep the ball in the ballpark. At least once in a while.

Christy Mathewson and Cy Young seem like they could do more than be massive inning eaters, but they need to be harder to hit to make the jump forward. But pitching is weird: Jack Taylor and Gerrit Cole (see below) were among the best on the mound last season, and struggled mightily this.

Bob Feller would warrant a bump as well with a few more solid starts.

#F Tier

Most of these issues are clear: too many homeruns, too many walks, way too many runners on the basepaths. Maybe Old Hoss Radbourn could argue to be one tier up. Maybe.

Other than that, it must be said there is a ton of talent here: Roy Oswalt, Tom Seaver, and Justin Verlander jump out as most likely to bounce back next year.

It must be said there are probably 2 dozen more names that could be listed in the F Tier. Check out the individual team maps as they are published for those, but suffice to say that, when a pitcher goes down in flames in the WBL, they burn awfully bright.

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That said, they are 7.5 games behind, and struggling a bit for sure, and it’s not clear that trading away a an all-star arm in Jim Whitney was the right move at the midseason break.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a bit weird. The Black Barons have a ton of power, with over 250 homers, second in the NL in that department. But that’s about it. They struggle to get on base, struggle to hit singles and doubles, and, at the end of the day, are only meh at what matters for an offense, scoring runs.

#What’s Going Right

Hank Aaron continues to position himself right on the edge of superstar level, leading the team in OPS (.953), homeruns (39), and RBIs (77).

Behind Aaron, Eddie Mathews continues to be an offensive force despite struggling to hit over .230.

Newly acquired Ryan Braun is a monster at the plate given Birmingham a truly impressive top 3 in the lineup..

While not at the same level as those three, Jim Pagliaroni is among the better offensive backstops in the league and Albert Belle, brought in during the offseason to hit for power, has done exactly that.

A shade of last year: Richie Sexson was brought in over the all star break as a throw-in to the Braun trade. Sexson has 4 homeruns in his first 10 games with Birmingham.

Gene Tenace is demanding more playing time now that he’s back from injury, with an OBP over .400 and SLG over .500 in pretty limited action.

#What’s Not Going Right

Even with 31 homers, Curtis Granderson is somewhat exemplary of what’s wrong with Birmingham’s offense overall: he’s hitting under .200 despite all those homeruns, with only 7 other extra base hits. Likewise, fan favorite JP Arencibia keeps hitting them out–12 dingers in 127 PAs–but doing little else at the plate.

Despite being given every opportunity to lock down the 1B job, Adrián González is not doing much. He’s performing better than last year, but an OPS under .800 is rough from a 1B in this league.

Similarly, despite Troy Tulowitzki‘s recent improvement, neither he nor Herman Long have been able to hold onto the SS job for long.

Cupid Childs is flashy, leading the team with 28 homers and the same number of steals. But closer examination reveals some weaknesses, with his OPS hovering barely over .700 and 19 caught stealings reducing the impact of those stolen bases.

THE PITCHING

The offense is better than last year, but the record is worse: an indication that not all is great on the mound for Birmingham.

#What’s Going Right

Harley Young has moved into the closer role, and the first-time all-star has continued his dominance, with 6 saves, 6 holds, and an ERA under 3.00.

Alejandro Peña and Greg Maddux are both pitching better than their raw numbers might suggest. While both have losing records and ERA’s around 5.00, their WHIPs remain solid.

#What’s Not Going Right

Even the above has caveats: Peña and Maddux have surrendered 68 homeruns combined, which is nearly unfathomable.

Juan Rincón has 12 saves, but has been pretty awful, losing his closer role and perhaps in danger of a trip to AAA–an ERA around 8.50 will do that.

While Bruce Chen has been better of late, he still sports an ERA near 6.00, and he and Rincón are both surrendering dingers at a Peña and Maddux like rate.

Nobody else has stood up in the rotation, with John Malarkey and Lefty Gomez being thoroughly meh to date.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is talent here, but it’s not clear how it all fits together. As an example, Joe Torre looks for real behind the plate, but unlikely to unseat Pagliaroni, and it’s not clear what Curt Flood offers that Granderson does not.

That said, Jess Barbour, Marcus Giles, Trea Turner, Ozzie Albies, and Gary Matthews all have some significant upside. But right now Giles, Turner, and Albies all play the same position, and Braun’s acquisitions further crowds the OF situation.

On the mound, the best arms–Cozy Dolan and Steve Avery–are still a few years away, with little help likely from the upper levels.

WHAT’S NEEDED

Fewer solo homers, more overall offensive production, and the pitching to improve across the board.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, González, Childs, Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year. Mixed. Pettitte, of course, was traded, Pagliaroni has excelled and González has been acceptable.
• With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile. Belle has been good, but Birmingham would rather have Pettitte, given the rest of their roster right now. This is not in small part due to Lefty Gomez (part of the Pettitte trade) being unable to keep up his early strong performance.
• Who will fill out the roster. Still a question …

FEATURED SERIES

The Black Barons travel to New York at the end of the week for a 3 game set against the Gothams.

Projected Starters

Birmingham’s starter listed first.

Lefty Gomez @ Christy Mathewson
Alejandro Peña (5-6, 4.91) @ Juan Marichal (8-9, 4.92)
Charlie Morton (4-3, 5.01) @ Gaylord Perry (8-10, 4.88)
Greg Maddux (8-9, 5.10) @ Don Sutton (11-4, 4.75)

(Forgot to grab stats for Gomez and Mathewson before playing the game.)

I mean … who knows? These are two teams still searching for an identity, let alone a .500 record.

Game One

Birmingham took the lead in the 2nd on a 2-run double from Herman Long, and then made it 4-0 on a 2-run shot from Ryan Braun in the 3rd. But Lefty Gomez gave it back in the bottom of the frame on an RBI single by Willie Mays and a 3-run pop fly that curled just inside the short left field pole from Will Clark.

RBI’s from Curtis Granderson and Albert Belle gave the Black Barons a 2-run lead, later halved by a solo shot from Mays. And that’s where we stood in the bottom of the 7th, 6-5 in favor of Birmingham. Clark then took Bill Phyle deep for his second homerun of the game, tying us up at 6.

On this day, though, Birmingham would prevail: Gene Tenace homered off Robb Nen in the top of the 9th and Harley Young pitched a perfect frame in the bottom for his 7th save of the season.

BBB 7 (Jackson 1-5, 5 B Sv; Kemmerer 2 H) @ NYG 6 (Crain 1-2; Henke 9 Sv)
HRs: BBB – Braun (38), Tenace (9); NYG – Clark 2 (24), Mays (37).
Box Score

Game Two

Alejandro Peña and Juan Marichal would face off in game two.

Marichal struggled immediately: a single, 2 walks, and an HBP gave Birmingham a 1-0 lead, Ryan Braun delivered a grandslam, and Curtis Granderson a 2-run shot to make it 7-0. Then it got comical: a hit, 2 errors, and a walk led to another run. So, 8-0 good guys after half an inning.

By the end of the 3rd, the Gothams had clawed their way back into it with a solo shot from Jim Ray Hart and a homerun and double from Willie Mays, closing the score to 8-5.

A rain delay of just over half an hour removed both starters in the 4th inning. Peña’s replacement, Joe Orrell, only lasted a few pitches before having to leave via injury. Birmingham brought in Charlie Morton, scrambling their rotation for the rest of the series.

A double from Benny Kauff brought the Gothams back to within a single run, 8-7, but the Black Barons remembered how to score in the 7th when Cupid Childs plated 2 with a single and Hank Aaron drove in another, for an 11-7 lead.

But New York wasn’t done: Larry Doyle took Bruce Chen deep, making it a 2 run game at 12-10. Again, though, Harley Young was up to it, giving Birmingham a 2-0 lead in the series.

BBB 12 (Morton 5-3; Young 8 Sv; Malloy 2 H) @ NYG 10 (Marichal 8-10)
HRs: BBB – Braun (39), Granderson (33); NYG – Hart (2), Mays (38), Doyle (14).
Box Score

Game Three

Before the game, even though it wasn’t clear what the exact nature of his injury was, the Black Barons needed a starter, so Joe Orrell headed to the DL with Warren Spahn being recalled for the start. He’d be opposed by Gaylord Perry for the Gothams.

Spahn was roughed up, giving up 5 homeruns in under 5 innings, with Larry Doyle going deep twice and Will Clark, Jim Ray Hart, and Buster Posey each sending one over the fence as well. After 5 innings, the Gothams led 7-0, with Perry surrendering neither a hit nor a walk in that span.

Perry walked Bob Nieman to lose the perfecto, but held onto the no-no until the 7th, when a single from Eddie Mathews gave Birmingham their first hit. At that point, it was 9-0, and the result was unlikely to come into doubt.

Perry ended with a 3-hitter, whiffing 10 in the complete game effort. Doyle and Hart had 4 hits each, and Doyle and Clark drove in 3.

BBB 0 (Spahn 2-3) @ NYG 10 (Perry 9-10)
HRs: BBB – none; NYG – Clark (25), Hart (3), Posey (29), Doyle 2 (16).
Box Score

Game Four

So, will Birmingham take the series 3-1, or will the Gothams come back and earn a series split? The Black Barons turn to Greg Maddux, while New York will counter by giving Rube Waddell the spot start.

Waddell struggled out of the gate, allowing an RBI single to Hank Aaron, walking Albert Belle with the bases loaded, and giving up a third run on a groundout while Brooklyn batted around in the top of the first.

Recently acquired Don Buford led off the bottom of the inning with his 21st homer of the year, closing it to 3-1 in favor of Birmingham.

Waddell settled down, and we were still 3-1 after 6 innings. Waddell was unlikely to come out for the 7th, but an elbow injury forced the Gothams’ hand, with Mike Norris taking the ball in the top of the 7th.

Maddux gave up a leadoff homer to Benny Kauff in the bottom of the frame, closing the gap to 3-2, and a single from Will Clark raised action in the Birmingham bullpen. Jim Ray Hart launched his 4th of the year, chasing Maddux with the Gothams having suddenly taken the lead, 4-3. Buford added an RBI with his 3rd hit of the day, and New York’s bullpen took over with a 2 run edge.

Robb Nen had a poor inning, but Jo-Jo Moore nailed Aaron at the plate to end the frame, preserving the 2 run lead. Brian Wilson had no such issues, walking 1 and whiffing 3 in picking up his 15th save of the year.

BBB 3 (Maddux 8-10) @ NYG 5 (Norris 4-4; Wilson 15 Sv; Nen 11 H)
HRs: BBB – none; NYG – Buford (5), Kauff (26), Hart (4).
Box Score

Waddell will miss a couple weeks, earning the oft-injured lefty a trip to the DL with Pete Donohue being recalled from AAA.

So, a series split. Birmingham’s bats fell off dramatically over the final 2 games, pointing to the inconsistency the Black Barons need to overcome if they are to escape the bottom few slots in the league.

Homeruns continue to plague Birmingham’s staff: the Gothams hit 15 out in the 4 games, with Jim Ray Hart launching his first 4 of the season and Will Clark and Larry Doyle hitting 3 each.

The Black Barons were the darlings of the league last season, using a late season charge to edge into the playoffs. They were masters of the in-season trade periods, and then claimed to won the off-season as well, trading ace Andy Pettitte (because they had a surplus of arms) to add some power in the form of Albert Belle.

And nothing has worked since as Birmingham has plummeted towards a WBL worst record.

Birmingham inherits players from all the Braves (Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta).

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Sitting 13 games behind in the Marvin Miller Division, anything that brought them within shouting distance of .500 would be a miracle. For some, this year is proof that last year was a mirage, for others, this year is just a long parade of poor fortune: how far the Black Barons recover will help the final evaluation of which is more accurate.

THE OFFENSE

Birmingham’s weakness last year was a total lack of power. They’ve addressed that with 6 players in double digits, led by Hank Aaron with 19 and Curtis Granderson and Eddie Mathews with 17 each. But everything else has plummeted: both Granderson and Mathews are hitting below .200, only 3 players have OBPs over .350.

#What’s Going Right

Jim Pagliaroni has blossomed into one of the better offensive catchers in the league, at least over the first few months, leading Birmingham in OPS at .927, powered by 14 dingers. Aaron is sporting an OPS just over .900, leading the team in runs and RBI’s as well. Mathews has seized the 3B spot, and Bob Nieman continues to be a solid contributor in the OF.

Then, at a lower pitch, JP Arencibia–while he’s fallen off significantly from his blistering start–is still hitting with a ton of power; Cupid Childs is getting on base at a good clip at the top of the order, and Belle, while currently mired in a bit of a slump, has produced some power, with 14 homeruns of his own.

#What’s Not Going Right

It’s homers or nothing for this team: only Nieman, Childs, Herman Long, and Aaron are in double digits in doubles, and there are some very odd distributions elsewhere (Pagliaroni has 1 double, Mathews 4, and Granderson 2 despite all having at least 14 homers).

Only two players (Aaron and Troy Tulowitzki, who has supplanted Long at SS) are hitting over .260.

Adrián González has seen his role reduced essentially to a platoon at 1B with Arencibia.

The team does not run well, with Childs having a whopping 15 CS to go along with 17 steals.

THE PITCHING

There are a few bright spots here, but, overall, more disappointments than pleasant surprises.

#What’s Going Right

Greg Maddux (5-5, 4.97) and Alejandro Peña (2-4, 5.23) have both pitched better than their ERA’s might suggest, and both continue to show front of rotation ability. They’ve been joined by Jim Whitney (1-1, 2.41), who has been a fantastic surprise, forcing his way into the rotation.

Harley Young (1-0, 1.80, 1 Sv, 3 H) seems to have made a full recovery from injury, and is pushing himself into the conversation at closer. Some other arms–notably Charlie Morton and John Malarkey–have done well in limited appearances.

#What’s Not Going Right

Lefty Gomez (3-6, 5.80) and Sam Streeter (1-7, 5.80–yes they both have the same poor ERA), who looked strong coming out of Spring Training, have struggled, and are in danger of losing their rotation spots.

Juan Ríncón has 6 saves, but he and Bruce Chen have both been hit very hard. Those two, along with Young, were a key trio in last year’s success, and the weakening of the back end of the bullpen has certainly been noticeable.

None of the other young talent on the mound–most notably Vic Willis, Warren Spahn, and Frank Viola–have come through.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

The future does look bright, with 7 prospects listed in the WBL top 50 in OFs Jess Barbour and Curt Flood, IF Marcus Giles and Trea Turner, C Joe Torre, and Ps Rube Melton and Alex Malloy. There’s a fair bit of talent off the WBL rankings radar as well, from P Steve Avery to the power of Nate Colbert and Gary Matthews to the OF skills of Ron Fairly, Melky Cabrera, and José Cruz.

So there are some options.

Of that group, Melton, Torre and Fairly are doing well at AAA while Flood is struggling a bit at that level.

WHAT’S NEEDED

Birmingham is underperforming, winning 2 fewer games than their runs scored/runs allowed numbers would indicate. But that’s only 2 games. So there are some deep underlying needs.

Most of all, the offense needs to become more than a threat of solo homeruns, which are just not enough to carry the team. The bullpen needs to settle, which may require some roster movement if Rincón and Chen can’t recover their form.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, Adrián González, Cupid Childs, Jim Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year? Overall, the answers here revealing: Pettitte is gone, Rincón and González are struggling, Childs is doing OK, and of that group, only Pagliaroni is excelling.
• With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile? Meh. The rotation has not really responded, and the Black Barons certainly feel the lack of a clear ace at the front of the rotation. Belle has hit a slump, but is still contributing with power. Meh.
• Who will fill out the roster? Still a bit of a concern, although Arencibia’s ultra hot start was a great plus and Andy Pafko has been quite solid.

FEATURED SERIES

The Black Barons start the week with 3 games in Pittsburgh to take on Homestead and since we just talked about the Grays, it seemed like a good focus series.

Projected Starters

Birmingham starter listed first.

Jim Whitney (1-1, 2.41) @ Bob Friend (3-2, 4.75)
Alejandro Peña (2-4, 5.23) @ Doug Drabek (2-1, 3.50)
Greg Maddux (5-5, 4.97) @ Francisco Liriano (3-5, 5.12)

Game One

With Bob Friend still fatigued, Homestead went with Ray Brown. Jim Whitney struggled early, giving up 4 runs in the bottom of the first including back to back longballs to Rick Reichardt and Willie Stargell.

And then the rains came …

After the tarps were on, the game was called, to be completed the following day with the Grays up 4-0, and guaranteeing impact on the two team’s bullpens.

The following day, Fred Fussell would take the ball for Birmingham for the bottom of the 3rd while Brickyard Kennedy took over for Homestead in the top of the 4th. Whitney stayed in the game as the DH, and doubled in the 5th, scoring on a homerun from Herman Long that closed the game to 4-2.

That was effectively it as the bullpens were excellent. The Grays would add one more run as Birmingham was held to 5 hits on the day.

BBB 2 (Whitney 1-2) @ HOM 5 (Kennedy 3-0; Lindblom 16 Sv; Lee 3 H; Jackson 8 H)
HRs: BBB – Long (4); HOM- Stargell (18), Reichardt (20).
Box Score

Game Two

Homestead’s Bob Friend gets his chance here, facing off against Alejandro Peña.

The game was scoreless until the top of the 5th when a double by Albert Belle drove in Curtis Granderson. After a walk to Gene Tenace, Troy Tulowitzki hit his first homer of the season, and it was 4-0 Birmingham, with Peña yet to allow a hit.

Nap Lajoie broke up the no-no in the bottom of the frame, but that was all the drama for a while–Belle and Cupid Childs went deep, and the Black Barons were sailing along 7-0 until Roberto Clemente touched Peña for a long 3 run shot in the bottom of the 7th.

The Grays made it close enough for Juan Ríncón to earn a save, but that was it as the Black Barons evened up the series.

BBB 8 (Peña 3-4; Rincón 7) @ HOM 5 (Friend 3-3)
HRs: BBB – Tulowitzki (1), Belle (15), Childs (2); HOM – Clemente (6).
Box Score

Game Three

An intriguing pitching matchup: Greg Maddux seems perpetually on the verge of becoming a front of the rotation guy for Birmingham, while Doug Drabek is trying to solidify a claim to a rotation spot for the Grays.

Both hurlers were good through three, and then the wheels fell off. Birmingham exploded for 7 runs in the top of the 4th, led by homeruns from Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, and JP Arencibia; but Maddux collapsed as well, allowing 7 runs to Homestead in the bottom of the frame.

So, tied until Mathews went deep for the 2nd time in the following inning, and Herman Long added a 2 run shot to give Birmingham a 10-7 lead. They added 2 more in the top of the 8th, making it 12-8 and then survived Stargell’s second of the game as Juan Ríncón closed it out for a 12-11 victory.

Cupid Childs had 4 hits and 3 doubles in the victory and Long and Arencibia drove in 3 each.

BBB 12 (Malarkey 2-1; Rincón 9 Sv) @ HOM 11 (Pierce 4-4)
HRs: BBB – Aaron (20), Mathews 2 (19), Arencibia (6), Long (5); HOM – Stargell 2 (20).
Box Score

A series win is a series win, and this one showed the offense doing more for sure. But there is something a bit unconvincing in the bullpen–especially when called upon in the middle of the game, and the questions remain.

Bill Phyle‘s time at with the big league club was minimal, as Steve Bedrosian‘s return from the DL sent Phyle back to AAA. Harley Young began a rehab assignment, signaling more good news for the Black Barons’ bullpen.

The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for Birmingham. Instead, it’s in shambles and, even though it’s early, some changes are in store, most notably Lefty Gomez replacing Vic Willis in the rotation. Jim Whitney is also pushing for a spot, with some pressure on Sam Streeter and John Malarkey to step it up in their next starts.

Jess Barbour‘s miserable start to the year will result in some reduced playing time, but his defensive flexibility keeps him on the roster.

Alejandro Peña was ridiculously good, allowing only 1 hit in over 8 innings, but he wasn’t around when Herman Long drove in the winning run with a 2 out single in the bottom of the 9th, giving Birmingham a 1-0 walkoff win over Brooklyn.

Curtis Granderson went deep twice as the Black Barons lost to Brooklyn, 5-4. Greg Maddux had an encouraging start for Birmingham, but Bedrosian imploded, giving up 2 homeruns in the 8th.

#Houston Colt 45’s

Toad Ramsey was magnificent, striking out 12 and allowing only a single hit in a 1-0 win over Kansas City. Carlos Correa extended his 28 game hitting streak with 2 doubles and Craig Biggio drove in HR Johnson for the game’s sole tally.

Correa’s hitting streak ended at 29 games, but 2 homeruns from Casey Stengel, along with solo shots from Tony Gwynn and Jeff Bagwell carried Houston to an 8-6 win over Birmingham. Stengel drove in 4 and Gwynn had 3 hits.

Correa bounced right back, sending a ball into the Crawford Seats for a walkoff 3 run homer in a 5-2 win over Birmingham.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

2 homers from Johnny Bench and 3 hits from Oscar Charleston weren’t enough as the ABC’s fell to Homestead, 5-4.

Gorham Leverett‘s spell with the ABC’s was awfully short, as an oblique injury forced him to the DL. Lynn Brenton was recalled from AAA to take Leverett’s spot.

Gene Tenace went deep twice as Birmingham pulled away late in a 9-2 victory over Philadelphia. Albert Belle hit his first homer of the year as he and Bob Nieman each had 3 RBI’s, supporting a strong start from Alejandro Peña.

Eddie Mathews went deep twice and Greg Maddux and Jim Whitney combined on a 6-hitter as the Black Barons blanked the Stars, 7-0.

#Indianapolis ABCs

The ABC’s pounded out 17 hits and 10 walks (4 to Joey Votto) in a 15-9 win over Birmingham. Joe Morgan, Denis Menke, and Oscar Charleston had 3 hits each, and Johnny Bench drove in 4.

The ABC’s pitched the first shutout of the season, a combined 8-hitter as they topped Houston 2-0 despite managing only 4 hits themselves. Johnny Cueto threw 6 innings for the win, followed by Dick Tidrow, Jack Billingham, and Clay Carroll, who picked up his 2nd save of the season.

Carroll will happily return to his setup duties as Indianapolis welcomed Rob Dibble back from injury. Billingham was sent to AAA very briefly, being recalled after only a day when Ewell Blackwell was diagnosed with bone chips in his elbow, putting him on the shelf for about 7 months.

#Kansas City Monarchs

C Ted Simmons launched a 507 ft bomb in a 9-5 loss to Birmingham.

It took a great start from Smokey Joe Wood to deal Indianapolis their first loss of the season. Robinson Canó and Ozzie Smith had 2 hits each and Dale Murphy hit an inside-the-park homerun as the Monarchs beat the ABC’s 3-0. Wood allowed 4 hits in over 7 innings, and Eddie Guardado and Jeff Pfeffer closed it out without allowing a baserunner.

Willie McGee had 4 hits (including 2 triples), drove in 4 and scored 4, leading the Monarchs to a 9-3 win over Indianapolis.

#Wandering House of David

Ryne Sandberg had 2 homeruns (one a grand slam) and drove in 6 as the House of David pummeled Houston, 10-1 behind a good start from Bob Rush.

Promising teenager Ad Gumbert strained his shoulder and was placed on the DL with Kyle Peterson being recalled from AAA. Peterson’s stay was brief, however, as Bruce Sutter was activated from the DL the following day.

Sandberg and Sammy Sosa hit 2 homeruns apiece as the House of David destroyed the Gothams 10-1. Perhaps most importantly, Jack Taylor put in a good shift, allowing 1 run in just over 5 innings. Sandberg’s start to the year is absolutely ridiculous, hitting .455 with 6 homeruns and 15 RBIs in his opening 5 games.

For complete statistics, poke around on the WBL Stats Page.

Batting Statistics

2+ 3B Games

2. Bob Bescher (IND); Craig Biggio (HOU), Ty Cobb (DET); Willie McGee (KCM); Tim Raines (OTT).

3+ 2B Games

4. Chuck Knoblauch (CLE).
3. Craig Biggio (HOU); Curt Blefary (BAL); George Brett (HOU); Ron Cey (BRK); Cupid Childs (BBB); Ty Cobb (DET); Gavvy Cravath (BAL); Josh Gibson (HOM); Hank Greenberg (DET); Joe Jackson (CAG); Reggie Jackson (SFS); HR Johnson (NYY); Napoleon Lajoie (HOM); Herman Long (BBB); Don Mattingly (NYY); Willie McGee (KCM); Joe Morgan (IND); Frank Robinson (BAL); Jackie Robinson (BRK); Cookie Rojas (MCG); Pete Runnels (NYG); Ted Simmons (KCM); Reggie Smith (MEM); Mike Trout (LAA); Bill White (MEM).

3+ HBP Games

3. Jack Doyle (CAG).

3+ HR Games

4. Tony Conigliaro (HOD); Larry Doby (CLE).
3. Jeff Bagwell (HOU); Ed Bailey (DET); Ernie Banks (HOD); Buddy Bell (POR); Carlos Beltrán (OTT); Lance Berkman x2 (CLE); Ron Blomberg (CLE); Ryan Braun (MCG); José Canseco x2 (MCG); Larry Doby (CLE); Gavvy Cravath (BAL); Larry Doby (CLE); Josh Gibson (HOM); Paul Goldshmidt (HOU); George Gore (HOD); Mark McGwire (HOD); Kevin Mitchell (CAG); Rick Monday (OTT); Stan Musial (KCM); Jim Pagliaroni (BBB); Manny Ramírez x2 (MEM); Álex Rodríguez (OTT); Babe Ruth (NYY); Ted Simmons (KCM); Sammy Sosa x2 (HOD); Gorman Thomas (HOU); Mike Trout (LAA); Larry Walker (OTT).

3+ OF Assists

4+ BB Games

4. Ed Bailey (DET); Eddie Collins (CAG); Mike Epstein (HOM); Rickey Henderson (SFS); Willie McGee (KCM); Andrew McCutchen (HOM), Joe Morgan (IND); Gorman Thomas (HOU); Joey Votto (IND).

4+ CS Games

6. Curt Blefary (BAL); Iván Rodríguez (MCG).
4. Brad Ausmus (OTT); Johnny Bench (IND); Curt Blefary (BAL); Gabby Hartnett (MEM); Jorge Posada (HOU); Mike Scioscia (PHI); Ted Simmons (KCM).

4+ Run Games

6. Ron Blomberg (CLE).
5. Chuck Knoblauch (CLE); Tris Speaker (CLE).
4. Roberto Alomar x3 (OTT); Jeff Bagwell x2 (HOU); Bob Bailey (DET); Ed Bailey (DET); Johnny Bates x2 (CLE); Albert Belle (BBB); Curt Blefary x2 (BAL); Dan Brouthers (BRK); Ron Cey (BRK); Roberto Clemente (HOM); Eddie Collins x2 (CAG); Tony Conigliaro (HOD); Gavvy Cravath (BAL); Ray Dandridge (BRK); Larry Doby (CLE); Mike Epstein (HOM); George Grantham (CAG); Rickey Henderson x2 (SFS); Pete Hill (HOU); Benny Kauff (NYG); Paul Konerko (CAG); Evan Longoria (CLE); Willie McGee (KCM); Kevin Mitchell (CAG); Rick Monday (OTT); Eddie Murray (BAL); Billy Nash (DET); Yasiel Puig (MCG); Charles Rogan (PHI); Cookie Rojas (MCG); Babe Ruth (NYY); Gary Sheffield (MCG); Chase Utley (PHI); Arky Vaughan (CLE); Larry Walker (OTT); Jim Wynn (HOU).

4+ SB Games

6. Rickey Henderson (SFS).
5. Roberto Alomar (OTT); Bob Bescher (IND).
4. Frank Chance (HOD); Rickey Henderson (SFS); Dick Lundy (SFS).

5+ Hit Games

5. Jeff Bagwell (HOU); Don Buford (LAA); Joe Jackson (CAG); Aaron Judge (PHI); Chuck Knoblauch (CLE); Jim Pagliaroni (BBB); Ichiro Suzuki (LAA); Mike Trout (LAA); Chase Utley (PHI).

5+ SO Games

6. Dale Murphy (KCM).
5. Beals Becker (BRK); Bobby Bonds (SFS); Ron Cey (BRK); Larry Doby (CLE); Mike Epstein x2 (HOM); Bryce Harper (BAL); Héctor López (NYY); Dale Murphy (KCM).

6+ RBI Games

8. Jeff Bagwell (HOU); Paul Konerko (CAG); Will Smith (HOU).
7. Jeff Bagwell (HOU); Ron Blomberg (CLE); Larry Doby (CLE); Carlton Fisk (CAG); Charlie Gehringer (DET); Hank Greenberg (DET); Evan Longoria (CLE); Manny Machado (BAL); Yasiel Puig (MCG); Manny Ramírez (MEM); Gary Sheffield (MCG).
6. Hank Aaron (BBB); Bob Bailey (DET); Ernie Banks (HOD); Albert Belle (BBB); Lance Berkman (CLE); Ron Blomberg (CLE); Johnny Callison (NYG); Carlos Correa (HOU); Gavvy Cravath (BAL); Kal Daniels (LAA); Chili Davis (DET); George Foster (IND); Josh Gibson (HOM); Kent Hrbek (POR); Joe Jackson (CAG); Aaron Judge (PHI); Tony Lazzeri (DET); Mickey Mantle (NYY); Kevin Mitchell (CAG); Rick Monday (OTT); Jim O’Rourke (HOU); Mike Piazza (BRK); Manny Ramírez (MEM); Babe Ruth x3 (NYY); Ryne Sandberg (HOD); Mike Schmidt (NYY); Ted Simmons (KCM); Roy White (BRK).

Cycles

Roberto Clemente (HOM; 4-5, 4 R, 3 RBI).
Ty Cobb (DET; 4-5, 3R, 2 RBI).
Goose Goslin (HOM; 4-5, 2 R, 2 RBI).

Longest HRs

{Note: OOTP clearly has something weird happening with overpowered HRs. It’s getting better, and, at some point, I’m going to reduce these by roughly 10%, which would leave the list at only 3 at 500 ft+ for the season so far, which seems much more realistic to me, but am waiting to see if I get any additional info/guidance from the game dev’s.}

595 ft. Dale Murphy (KCM).
558 ft. Aaron Judge (PHA).
555 ft. Albert Pujols (KCM).
551 ft. Eddie Mathews (BBB).
550 ft. Lance Berkman (CLE).
544 ft. Eddie Mathews (BBB).
542 ft. Ron Blomberg (CLE); Evan Longoria (CLE).
539 ft. Johnny Bates (CLE); Craig Biggio (HOU).
538 ft. Josh Gibson (HOM), Pete Hill (HOU); Buster Posey (NYG).
535 ft. Buster Posey (NYG).
534 ft. Robinson Canó (KCM).
533 ft. Oscar Charleston (IND).
530 ft. Dale Murphy (KCM).
528 ft. Johnny Callison (NYG); Willie Mays (NYG).
527 ft. Joe Adcock (NYG).
525 ft. Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI).
522 ft. Ron Blomberg (CLE).
519 ft. Babe Ruth (NYY).
518 ft. Willie Mays (NYG).
516 ft. Hank Aaron (BBB); Bob Nieman (BBB).
514 ft. Ron Cey (BRK); Oscar Gamble (DET).
512 ft. Tony Gwynn (HOU).
511 ft. Lance Berkman (CLE); Dan Brouthers (BRK).
510 ft. Ron Blomberg (CLE); Joe Harris (KCM).
509 ft. Johnny Callison (NYG); Jack Clark (SFS); Bryce Harper (BAL); Ted Simmons (KCM).
508 ft. Jeff Bagwell x2 (HOU); Ron Blomberg (CLE); Boog Powell (KCM); Travis Shaw (MEM).
507 ft. Bobby Grich (BBB); Ducky Medwick (KCM); Ted Simmons (KCM).
505 ft. Lou Gehrig (NYA).
503 ft. Larry Doyle (NYG); Joe Rogan (PHI); Ryne Sandberg (HOD); Oscar Gamble (DET).
502 ft. Ernie Banks (HOD); Albert Belle (BBB); Robinson Canó (KCM); Ray Dandridge (BRK); Mike Epstein (HOM).
501 ft. Gary Carter (OTT); Derek Jeter (NYA).
500 ft. Andrew McCutchen (HOM).

Pitching Statistics

80+ Game Scores

99. José Rijo (KCM).
97. JM Ward (PHI).
94. Steve Carlton (PHI).
93. Frank Castillo (KCM); Lefty Grove (SFS); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Jim Whitney (MCG).
92. Bump Hadley (SFS); Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI).
91. Frank Knauss (BRK); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Toad Ramsey (HOU)
90. Brett Anderson (LAA); A. Rube Foster (KCM); Bump Hadley (SFS); Alejandro Peña (BBB); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Joe Rogan (PHI).
89. Bump Hadley (SFS); Dennis Martínez (BAL); Gaylord Perry (NYG); Fernando Valenzuela (BRG); Smokey Joe Wood (KCM).
88. Don Newcombe (PHI); Stubby Overmire (MEM); Luis Padrón x2 (IND); Bill Steen (CLE); Justin Verlander (DET).
87. Ice Box Chamberlain (HOU); Roger Clemens (HOU); Lefty Grove (SFS); Carl Hubbell (NYG); Francisco Liriano (HOM); Dennis Martínez (BAL); José Méndez (MCG); Joseíto Muñoz (MCG); Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT); José Rijo (KCM); Jim Whitney (BBB).
86. Bartolo Colón (HOM); A. Rube Foster (KCM); Doc Gooden (LAA); Frank Knauss (BRK).
85. Roger Clemens (HOU); Gerrit Cole (LAA); Lefty Grove (SFS); Luke Hamlin (KCM); Hardie Henderson x2 (PHI); Luis Padrón (IND); Roy Patterson (LAA); Eddie Plank (SFS); Jameson Taillon (MEM); Ed Walsh (CAG); Cy Young (CLE).
84. Frank Castillo (KCM); Johnny Cueto (IND); Ron Guidry (NYY); Orel Hershiser (BRK); Ed Walsh (CAG); Smokey Joe Wood (KCM).
83. Bob Friend (HOM); Mike Mussina (BAL); Luis Padrón x2 (IND).
82. Mark Buehrle (CAG); Bill Doak (MEM); Connie Johnson (BAL); Frank Knauss (BRK); Toad Ramsey (HOU).
81. Bert Blyleven (POR); Ferguson Jenkins (HOD); Andy Pettitte (NYY); Stephen Strasbourg (HOU); Cy Young (CLE).
80. Frank Castillo (KCM); A. Rube Foster (KCM); Walter Johnson (POR); The Only Nolan (IND); Andy Pettitte (NYY); Toad Ramsey (HOU); José Rijo (KCM); Fernando Valenzuela (BRK).

10+ Strikeout Games

15. Joseíto Muñoz (MCG).
14. Frank Castillo (KCM); Roy Oswalt (HOU); Toad Ramsey (HOU).
13. Brett Anderson (LAA); Bob Feller (CLE); Ron Guidry (NYY); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Charlie Root (DET); Smokey Joe Wood (KCM).
12. Ice Box Chamberlain (HOU); Johnny Cueto (IND); Bob Feller (CLE); Doc Gooden (LAA); Lefty Grove (SFS); Bump Hadley (SFS); Frank Knauss (BRG); Mike Mussina (BAL); Toad Ramsey x2 (HOU); José Rijo (KCM); Bill Steen (CLE); JM Ward (PHI); Jim Whitney (MCG).
11. Len Barker (MEM); Johnny Cueto (IND); Paul Derringer (IND); Ned Garvin (BAL); Ron Guidry x2 (NYY); Ferguson Jenkins (HOD); Connie Johnson (BAL); Walter Johnson x2 (POR); Frank Knauss (BRG); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Joseíto Muñoz (MCG); The Only Nolan (IND); Luis Padrón (IND); Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT); Toad Ramsey x4 (HOU); José Rijo (KCM); Sam Streeter (CAG); Don Sutton (NYG); Justin Verlander (DET); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK); Cy Young (CLE).
10. Tony Brizzolara (NYY); Steve Carlton (PHI); Frank Castillo x2 (KCM); Watty Clark (SFS); Roger Clemens (HOU); Don Drysedale (BRK); Bob Feller (CLE); A. Rube Foster (KCM); Bob Friend (HOM); Ned Garvin x3 (BAL); Lefty Gomez (BBB); Doc Gooden (LAA); Lefty Grove x3 (SFS); Ron Guidry x3 (NYY); Bump Hadley (SFS); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Orel Hershiser (BRK); Connie Johnson (DET); Frank Knauss x2 (BRK); Dennis Martínez (BAL); Ramón Martínez (MCG); Hal Newhouser (DET); Luis Padrón x2 (IND); Alejandro Peña (BBB); Gaylord Perry x2 (NYG); Andy Pettitte (NYY); Billy Pierce (HOM); Toad Ramsey x5 (HOU); José Rijo (KCM); Charlie Root (DET); Bob Rush (HOD); Tom Seaver (LAA); Bill Steen (CLE); Stephen Strasbourg (HOU); Don Sutton (NYG); Fernando Valenzuela x2 (BRK); Jim Whitney (MCG); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK); Smokey Joe Wood (KCM).

8+ Walk Games

8. Ed Brandt (MCG); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Smokey Joe Williams (BRK).
9. Randy Johnson (OTT).

Shutouts

NO HITS. Steve Carlton (PHI); José Rijo (IND).
1 Hit. A. Rube Foster (KCM); Bump Hadley (SFS); Stubby Overmire (MEM) [5 inn]; Luis Padrón (IND); Toad Ramsey (HOU); Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI).
2 Hits. A. Rube Foster (KCM); Lefty Grove (SFS); Bump Hadley (SFS); Frank Knauss (BRK); Francisco Liriano (HOM); Dennis Martínez (BAL); José Méndez (MCG); Stubby Overmire (MEM); Luis Padrón (IND); Old Hoss Radbourn (OTT); José Rijo (KCM); Joe Rogan (PHI); Jim Whitney (MCG).
3 Hits. Frank Castillo (KCM); Roger Clemens (HOU); Bartolo Colón (HOM); Lefty Grove (SFS); Hardie Henderson (PHI); Carl Hubbell (NYG); Christy Mathewson (NYG); Don Newcombe (PHI); Luis Padrón (IND); Gaylord Perry (NYG); Eddie Plank (SFS); Toad Ramsey (HOU).
4 Hits. Bert Blyleven (POR); Frank Castillo (KCM); Gerrit Cole (LAA); Johnny Cueto (IND); Doc Gooden (LAA); Lefty Grove (SFS); Bump Hadley (SFS); Dennis Martínez (BAL); Luis Padrón (IND); Jim Whitney (BBB); Cy Young (CLE).

Shutouts (Combined)

1 Hit. Justin Verlander / Mike Henneman (DET); Bill Steen / Terry Adams (CLE).
2 Hits. Jameson Taillon / Skel Roach / Andrew Miller (MEM); Ed Walsh / Tom Williams (CAG); Pud Galvin / Francisco Rodríguez / Joe Nathan (LAA); Brett Anderson / Ross Reynolds (LAA); Connie Johnson / Justin Hampson (BAL); Bob Feller / Ron Reed (CLE); Luke Hamlin / Craig Kimbrel (KCM).
3 Hits. Hardie Henderson / Robin Roberts (PHI); Orel Hershiser / Eric Gagne (BRK); Stephen Strasbourg / John Franco / Tug McGraw (HOU); Vean Gregg / Mike Norris / Brian Wilson (NYG); Justin Verlander / Billy Hoeft / Chad Bradford (DET); Stubby Overmire / Heath Bell / Jonathan Papelbon (MEM); Brett Anderson / Ross Reynolds / Joe Nathan (LAA).
4 Hits. Toad Ramsey / Bones Ely (HOU); Hardie Henderson / Brad Kilby / Tim Belcher / Ted Kennedy (PHI); Dwight Gooden / Francisco Rodríguez (LAA); Bump Hadley / Jim Devlin / Ken Howell / Rod Beck (SFS); Greg Maddux / John Malarkey / Bruce Chen / Juan Rincón (BBB); Johnny Podgajny / Tom Henke (OTT); Herm Wehmeier / Goose Gossage (NYY); José Rijo / Jeff Pfeffer (KCM); Smokey Joe Williams / Trevor Hildenberger (BRK); Kyle Peterson / Karl Spooner / Ed Bauta (HOD); Frank Knauss / Trevor Hildenberger (BRG); Ice Box Chamberlain / Andrew Chafin (HOU); Walter Ball / Johan Santana / Dick Jones (POR).
5 Hits. Kenshin Kawakami / Barry Latman / Ed Brandt / Sandy Consuegra (MCG); Len Barker / David Bush / Andrew Miller (MEM); Johnny Cueto / Sad Sam Jones / Rob Murphy / Rob Dibble (IND); Smoky Joe Wood / Mike Kume (KCM); Waite Hoyt / Herb Pennock / AJ Minter (CAG); Bob Feller / Whit Wyatt / Al Smith / Ron Reed (CLE).

Pretty hard question: nobody expected a playoff run last season, now the fans will demand a repeat, but if the Black Barons can’t address some core offensive issues, that may be unlikely.

Best Case

The pitching continues to dominate, Juan Rincón holds down the closer spot, and either Sam Streeter or Warren Spahn step up to seize the 5th starting spot. On the other side, Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews move into the elite of the league and someone–anyone–steps up to support them.

Worst Case

The pitching falls apart, with Andy Pettitte and Alejandro Peña becoming solid, but no longer world-beaters and the bullpen collapses while the offense continues to be far too slapdash to be dependable.

Key Questions

• How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, Adrián González, Cupid Childs, Jim Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year.
• With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile.
• Who will fill out the roster.

Trade Bait

The Black Barons would happily welcome an offensive star, but would have to mortgage their farm system to get one. Or, mortgage their best starter … which in a bit of a shock, is exactly what they ended up doing. It’s an interesting gambit: a true top of rotation star gone in exchange for a “win-now” bat (but Belle is aging) and a few arms for the future in Lefty Gomez and Frank Viola. We’ll see.

Roster Evaluation

Doesn’t look like a strong playoff contender to me. Now, if 3 to 4 players shift left one column … there’s just so much uncertainty. Six new faces, plus Belle, and while most of them are in reserve roles, it feels like a lot to ask for the Black Barons to repeat last year’s success.

Talent Ratings

Best In The Minors

Whitney, Dolan, Malloy, and Barbour start the season in the WBL (Malloy on the DL, but still). This is very much a make or break year for Flood.

Overall

The media darling of the year: from a dozen games below .500 and clearly selling top end talent to a one game playoff with Portland to determine the division title. Birmingham navigated the trade periods with a skill unmatched in the league, adding and removing talent in a way that seemed to always hit the right balance, leaving the team both better and better positioned for the future.

Still, unless some serious issues with the offense are resolved, it’s not clear how far the superlative pitching can actually carry them next season.

What Went Right

Honestly, not a lot in terms of offense. Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron showed the potential to be stars, but at the end of the day, had fairly pedestrian seasons, especially for their positions. Bob Nieman was a pleasant surprise, and Cupid Childs and Jim Pagliaroni both came in late in the season (Childs from the minors, Paglioaroni via trade) and did well at 2B and C respectively.

The Black Barons seemed to survive on always having someone who was hot enough to carry them: 3B Pie Traynor started off mashing the ball before fading dramatically at the end of the season; both Herman Long and Curtis Granderson took their turns, and Adrián González, whose overall numbers look pretty anemic, was actually quite good for Birmingham after a horrid start to the season with Chicago.

Most of what went right for Birmingham happened on the mound, where Alejandro Peña and mid-season acquisition Andy Pettitte were magnificent, combining with Scott Baker, Vic Willis, and Greg Maddux to form a very impressive rotation, rivalling Baltimore’s in quality top to bottom.

After being named the closer, Juan Rincón did an excellent job, and Harley Young, Steve Bedrosian, and Bruce Chen were solid getting to Rincón.

But you really can’t say enough about Peña and Pettitte, who accounted for nearly 400 quality innings over the course of the season.

Finally, see the Transactions section: somehow Birmingham got rid of their two all-stars as well as some other top end talent, and got better.

ALL STARS
2B Tom Herr; SP Tim Hudson

What Went Wrong

In summary: nobody was great, and few were good.

Lots of players were given plenty of opportunity: Traynor, Al Schweitzer, Troy Tulowitzki, Omar Infante, and Ginger Beaumont all had at least 30 games to show their stuff, and none did anything of note, leaving the MI and one OF position up in the air for far too long.

Hmmm … not much went wrong on the mound. Carlos Diaz only lasted 14 games as closer and Warren Spahn did quite poorly in about 60 innings, indicating that for all his talent, another year in the minors may be needed.

Transactions

March

None

June

P Tim Hudson to San Francisco for P Rube Melton, OF Derrick May & 3rd Round Pick {Gary Matthews}

Given Hudson’s immediate implosion, seems fine, although given Birmingham’s resurgence, perhaps he would have been “the difference.”

P Hoyt Wilhelm & P Dick Rudolph to Chicago for OF Melky Cabrera, P A. Rube Foster, 1B Adrián González & 2nd Round Pick {Trea Turner}

Seems like a win long term for sure, and even this year, González was key for the Black Sox.

2B Tom Herr to New York Black Yankees for IF Reddy Mack, OF Bill Buckner, P Heathcliff Slocumb, OF Charlie Keller, 1B Moose Skowron & 10th Round Pick

It’s a lot of bodies for sure, but it’s also not clear any of them have a better year than Herr did, and usually the team that gets the best player wins the trade. So, unknown.

IF Frank Isbell to Brooklyn for OF Curt Flood, IF Manny Trillo & 6th Round Pick {Steve Avery}

All depends on how Flood develops, but seems fine, especially with the González deal earlier.

July

SS Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor to Memphis for C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick {Adam Kennedy}

Pagliaroni was great for Birmingham; even with that, Taylor may end up being a star, so they may have overpaid here.

C Dale Murphy, P A. Rube Foster, 4th Round Pick & 2nd Round Pick to Kansas City for P Andy Pettitte

It would be a shock of Birmingham didn’t regret this in a few years. It was still a good trade, as without Pettitte, they never make the postseason.

Looking Forward

SP

Pitching should continue to be the hallmark of this club. Even with Peña and Pettitte aging out at some point, a future rotation of Greg Maddux, Vic Willis, Sam Streeter, Jim Whitney, and Warren Spahn looks quite impressive.

RP

Juan Rincón is the presumed closer, and even if both Bruce Chen and Harley Young prove to be short-term solutions, both Steve Bedrosian and minor leaguer Rick Camp look capable of anchoring a deep bullpen into the future.

C

Right now this is Jim Pagliaroni and Gene Tenace, but it’s an area of long term need.

1B

There is a transition here from Frank McCormick to Adrián González to the potential of Nate Colbert. None of those project as stars, so an upgrade could be in order.

2B

Cupid Childs filled in well for Tom Herr, but there really isn’t a long term solution here.

3B

The question is if Eddie Mathews is solid, or if he develops into a star, but this is Mathews’ position.

SS

Herman Long was impressive, but hit a very deep slump at the end of the season. For now, he will continue with Troy Tulowitzki as his backup.

LF

This is all very patchwork: Bob Nieman for now with some constant mixture of Joe Rudi, Billy Southworth, and perhaps eventually, Alfonso Soriano.

CF

Curtis Granderson is good enough for now, but eventually they will have to figure out what to do with him and Curt Flood.

RF

See the comment about Mathews, but there is more optimism that Hank Aaron becomes a star.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

With 6 selections in the first four rounds, Birmingham hopes to restock its system with offensive production. They start with a franchise pick that may fill an areas of need long term, drafting C Joe Torre. Their 2nd round pick’s future is less clear, but whether Trea Turner ends up on the infield or CF, he should help in a year or two. Gary Matthews, their first of two picks in the 3rd round, should arrive earlier, but doesn’t have Turner’s ceiling.

At some point, long term potential just starts to overshadow concerns about fit: that was the case with José Cruz, with the 22 year old joining Birmingham with their 2nd pick in the 3rd round. Cruz may never develop enough power to be a star, but he has a pure stroke and has been on the board far longer then he should have.

The Black Barons used their final franchise exception on MI Adam Kennedy with their first pick in the fourth round and picked up a late bloomer, 27 year old SP Bob Smith, later in the round.

Rounds 5-8

The Black Barons have decent depth, so they can really take the best available talent. At some point, they need to pickup a 1B and a C, but in the 6th round it was lefty Steve Avery followed by 2B Marcus Giles–Giles is just too much better than the rest of their franchise selections to risk losing. George H. Stone was their 7th round selection and C Greg Olson their 8th.

Rounds 9-12

P Bill James, P Kerry Ligtenberg; P Eddie Solomon; P Kid Madden; 1B Del Bissonette.

This includes every starter with at least 15 wins, as well as the top 5 in WAR, ERA, FIP (a measurement that tries to eliminate the impact of fielding on pitching stats), and SIERA (a measurement that tries to eliminate factors out of control of the pitcher).

OK, I get it. That’s a lot of numbers. And, SIERA always complicates things, since it is precisely designed to show who is pitching far better than the other numbers would show.

Christy Mathewson and Pat Malone were the league’s only 17 game winners. Andy Pettitte won the ERA crown and carried Birmingham into the playoffs after being acquired from Kansas City. Charlie Root and Jack Taylor (followed by Pettitte) allowed the fewest baserunners.

So let’s call this Pettitte, Mathewson, Malone from the perspective of the traditional stats.

FIP likes Malone (3rd in the league, but Pettitte isn’t far behind). If you then turn to SIERA, Malone is 3rd and Root 5th in the metric, with Matty a bit further behind.

I think evaluating pitchers remains the most elusive of quarry, and at such times, the known terrain is the safest. Call it Pettitte, Malone, Matty, with Andy Pettitte‘s clear contribution to a playoff drive sealing the inaugural Brock Rutherford Award for the lefty.