The Whirled Baseball League

Baseball The Way It Never Was

Year III Season Preview: New York Black Yankees

State of the Franchise

team logo

There is exactly one acceptable outcome in the Bronx, and it hasn’t changed since the day Babe Ruth first pulled on the pinstripes: a Whirled Championship. Year II delivered neither the parade nor the collapse — 90-72, a Bill James Division title, and a quick playoff exit. Progress on paper; but nothing meaningful in the trophy case.

What keeps the win-now posture from being empty bluster is the age of the core. Ruth is 26. Lou Gehrig is 24. Mickey Mantle 22. Of the offensive core, only Mike Schmidt (29) and Rogers Hornsby (34) have crossed the far side of 25 (!). This is the rare club that can demand a title this year and still expect to be great for a decade — which is exactly why the front office has never once flinched at trading the future to reinforce the present. There is no future, the board sneers, there is only now.

Welcome to my supervillain origin story …

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring insisting it was all about the bullpen, and that Ron Guidry would seize the ace role in front of a revived pen fronted by Aroldis Chapman. The universe, as it does, laughed: the bullpen remained the same slow-motion catastrophe it has been for multiple years, and Guidry never made the traditional leap either: he was excellent by every advanced metric and thoroughly ordinary by the ones on the scoreboard (11-7, 4.51, but second in the league with 251 K).

Two things made up for it. Andy Pettitte, acquired for the departed Albert Belle, quietly became the ace we’d wished onto Guidry (18-9, AL All-Star). And Ruth authored maybe the best offensive season in league history (hush you voices in Detroit and Pittsburgh) — 73 homers, 167 RBI, a 1.156 OPS, runner-up for the Mel Trench Award. We had fretted about regression from Munson, Davis, and Mantle; the regression that actually arrived came from the man we’d listed as trade bait, Derek Jeter, who, at 33, slid all the way to the bottom of the SS lists in the AL.

The eternal lesson for the Black Yankees: the stars carry you, the margins betray you, and the bullpen is simply a tax you pay every year.

Key Changes

In: Ed Charles (IND); Ted Lilly (FA); Tony Mullane (FA); Gaylord Perry (NYG); Joe Sewell (CLE); Robby Thompson (NYG)

Out: Aroldis Chapman (CLE); Grant Johnson (NYG); Dave Righetti (NYG); Jeff D Robinson (IND); Red Ruffing (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Whitey Ford

Best Case for 2002

The back of the rotation finally coheres — Gaylord Perry, the winter import, gives them a genuine third starter, one of Whitey Ford or Tony Brizzolara steps forward, and Guidry’s peripherals at last catch up to his ERA. Gehrig and Mantle keep climbing, Ruth keeps being Ruth, and — dare we dream — the bullpen merely stops actively losing games rather than winning them (a burden that weighs heavy on designated closer Goose Gossage). That team runs away with the division and, for once, keeps winning past September.

Worst Case for 2002

Jeter’s collapse turns out to be contagious. The 33-year-old shortstop and the 34-year-old Hornsby both give out up the middle, Eric Davis misses another 50 games, and the rotation behind Pettitte and Guidry is a mishmash of below-average auditions. The pen does what the pen does. 90 wins becomes 78, and the only now mandate starts ringing increasingly hollow, as the rest of the universe cheers the decline.

Key Questions

  • Who, exactly, plays shortstop? Jeter isn’t giving them enough to hold the job. Chapman was unloaded for Joe Sewell and Robby Thompson came over in the Perry trade, so look for a 3-man rotation for a while. This is the question most likely to shove New York back into the market the instant the trade window opens at the break.
  • Is there a back of the rotation? Pettitte and Guidry are locks, and Perry was brought in to solidify behind them. After that it’s an untried rookie in Ford, the only slightly tried Brizzolara, and arms with nothing actually proven (Ted Lilly, Tony Mullane).
  • Is Mattingly still a WBL first baseman? An .800-ish OPS doesn’t play at 1B, and Gehrig is standing right there. It’s not clear how long these 2 split the DH/1B role, but it’s also not clear who would take over.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CMunson C · Sanguillén
1BMattingly D · Gehrig S
2BHornsby B
3BSchmidt A · Charles
SSJeter F · Sewell · Thompson
LFRuth S
CFDavis B · Rivers
RFMantle A
DHGehrig S
SPPettitte B · Guidry C · Perry C · Ford · Brizzolara
RPGossage B (CL) · Wilhelm C · Cormier D · Robertson F · Shuey

4 bats as good as any in the league — Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, Schmidt — and not much of anything else. And the quiet standout may be the one nobody talks about: Schmidt hit 45 homers with a .914 OPS and plays a real third base, the connoisseur’s Yankee the sharper fans prize precisely because the box-score crowd looks past him.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Babe RuthLF Jackie Warner
Batting EyeLF Babe Ruth1B Nick Etten
ContactC Manny Sanguillén; 1B Don MattinglyRF Rich Coggins
Running SpeedCF Eric DavisCF Cecil Espy
Base StealingCF Eric DavisCF Cecil Espy
IF Defense3B Mike Schmidt1B J C Martin
OF DefenseLF Babe RuthRF Nick Swisher
StuffRP David RobertsonRP Jesse Orosco
ControlSP Gaylord PerrySP Noah Syndergaard
VelocityRP David RobertsonRP Dan Plesac

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (67)24SSCharlie Irwin

Others: OF Rich Coggins, IF John Kruk, P Noah Syndergaard, OF Jackie Warner.

Meh, who cares.

A year ago, this list ran 7 deep, almost all arms. Where did they go? Whitey Ford and Tony Brizzolara graduated into the back of the rotation; Jake Peavy, last spring’s No. 2, was the centerpiece headed to Portland for Rogers Hornsby; Carlos Rodón and Elliott Maddox were shipped out in other deals; and last year’s No. 1, Noah Syndergaard, has slid off the national board entirely (still only 22, throwing at AAA). What’s left is Charlie Irwin, a 24-year-old vaguely mediocre looking shortstop.

New York still owns the worst farm system in the league by a distance.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJesse Orosco, 36John Ryan Murphy, 18
HeightNoah Syndergaard, 6’6″Joe Sewell, 5’6″
OPSBabe Ruth, 1.156Heinie Groh, .540 (AAA)
HRBabe Ruth, 73Heinie Groh, 2 (AAA)
SBEric Davis, 64
WAR (bat)Babe Ruth, 7.7Derek Jeter, −1.5
WAndy Pettitte, 18
SVGoose Gossage, 20
ERAArt Ditmar, 2.94 (AA)Herm Wehmeier, 6.54
WAR (pit)Ron Guidry, 4.8Cal Eldred, −1.5 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: New York Gothams

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Gothams are the 3rd team in their own city, behind a Brooklyn club that just won it all and the rich/arrogant Yankees up the road. 2001 was a wake-up call — after winning 87 games, they plummeted to 75-87 and last in the Effa Manley Division, 24 games back.

The top of the roster is not the problem. Willie Mays hit 49 home runs at 24 and was worth 4.4 wins. Buster Posey hit 39 from behind the plate and was worth 4.2. Will Clark put up a .952 OPS, Johnny Callison hit 39 more, and all 4 are 24 to 29 years old.

The problem is … well … everything else. Shortstop gave New York 442 plate appearances of 221/268/381. Third base needed 7 different men before Jim Ray Hart claimed it in the 2nd half, and it’s not like he set the world on fire. Left field was a hole until Don Buford was bought at the deadline, and Jimmy Sheckard, a 4-WAR outfielder in 2000, hit .172 in the WBL and finished the year at Triple-A.

And the rotation wasn’t much better — Christy Mathewson keeps giving both ace potential and thoroughly average performances, and the bullpen — the pride of the club in 2000 — was showing its age. So the Gothams tore it all down (which may mean, panicked uncontrollably, or may mean made a smart investment in their future).

Juan Marichal, Robb Nen, Troy Percival and Steve Howe all went out at the deadline; then, in January, the Gothams sent Gaylord Perry — its own 2001 WAR leader — up the road to the Yankees for HR Johnson, Dave Righetti, a 1st-round pick and a 3rd. Johnson is an infielder, and may offer some long-sought-after stability there.

2001 Revisited

We asked for a deep playoff run, much like last year, and added a note about the Gothams’ habit of trading away all their damn picks. They went 75-87.

The worst case we sketched was that the bullpen falters, and only Matty remains viable as a starter while everyone not named Mays and Posey struggles offensively. That was close, and still too kind. The bullpen didn’t falter so much as get sold for parts. Mays and Posey did carry the offense. And Mathewson was the one who faltered.

Which is where 2001 gets strange. Mathewson went 7-16 with a 5.61 ERA, and he was the best pitcher on the staff: 210 innings, 207 strikeouts, 4.0 WAR at 22, a figure that actually rose from the year he led the league in wins. Don Sutton went 17-8 with a 5.23 and was worth 1.9. Same rotation, same season, 2 records that just add to the lack of internal clarity.

The best case wanted Perry or Marichal to step forward and join Mathewson among the league’s elite. Perry did have a decent year — a 1.13 WHIP across 211 innings, but went packing when the Black Yankees came knocking. Benny Kauff, who the preview wondered how they’d find at-bats for, found them, made the All-NL 2nd Team, and was traded in March.

A lot of churn. But it’s not clear the Gothams are any better.

Key Changes

In: Grant Johnson (NYY); Dale Murphy (KAN); Dave Righetti (NYY)

Out: Dellin Betances (FA); Benny Kauff (KAN); Tony Mullane (FA); Gaylord Perry (NYY); Robby Thompson (NYY)

Opening Day Rookies: Santiago Casilla; Dick Dietz; George Jeffcoat; Doggie Miller; Buck O’Brien; Vito Tamulis; Masahiro Tanaka

Best Case for 2002

The middle fills in. HR Johnson, 26, takes second base and hits the way he did in Houston; Hart holds third; Brandon Crawford finds enough of a bat to go with the glove, or somebody takes the job from him. That alone is worth several wins, because the 4 men at the top are already producing at a playoff standard.

Mathewson’s record catches up to his arm. Righetti, 24 and coming off a 2.5-WAR season in the Bronx, gives the rotation a 2nd real starter, and Pete Donohue — 22, a 3.61 across 120 innings at Triple-A and a NL 21 & Under Team pick — turns his September look into a rotation spot.

And the bullpen rebuilds itself from inside. Brian Wilson is still an elite closer when healthy, George Jeffcoat saved 32 games at Hartford, Santiago Casilla was untouchable there. So perhaps the identity returns.

Worst Case for 2002

Johnson is the latest name on a long list. New York has spent 3 years betting on the undervalued bat — Pinky Higgins, John Kerins, Matt Williams, Pete Runnels, Carl Furillo, Wes Westrum — and the bets keep landing in the same unremarkable middle. If Johnson doesn’t hit, the club will have sold its best pitcher to the richest team in its own city for another meh return.

Mathewson doesn’t take the step, Sutton’s ERA finally catches his record, and the rotation behind them is a 26-year-old with a 5.75 and a set of Triple-A arms. Dale Murphy hit .193 in Kansas City last year and is the insurance in center. Crawford keeps the shortstop job by default. A 75-win team wins 75 games again.

Key Questions

  • Does HR Johnson hit? He is 26, he plays the position New York has needed for 3 years, and he cost the club a pitcher who had just led it in WAR. Johnson produces and the trade is the cleverest thing the Gothams have done. Get him wrong and it is an all-too-familiar mistake.
  • Will the real Matty please stand up? He has now led the league in wins and, a year later, in losses, with his WAR going up in between. Read that again. At 22 with 207 strikeouts he has every ingredient of a front-line starter and a 5.61 to explain away. The org has never been sure whether it has an ace or a very good innings-eater. It would be nice to know.
  • Can the left side of the infield be fixed from inside? Shortstop and third combined for less production than most clubs get from a single player. Johnson will swing across these positions, but someone else needs to contribute here as well.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPosey A · Dietz
1BClark B
2BJohnson · Doyle B
SSCrawford F
3BHart
LFBuford D · Sheckard
CFMays A · Murphy F
RFCallison C
DHDoyle B · Dietz
SPMathewson D · Sutton C · Hubbell F · Righetti · Donohue · Tanaka
RPWilson B (CL) · Norris B · Casilla · Tamulis · Tekulve · Jeffcoat

Dick Dietz was among the better backup bats in the league, which on most rosters is a luxury and on this one is a way to get a real hitter into a lineup that runs out of them by the 6th spot. And Mike Norris, 37 and the club’s Fan Favorite, is almost certainly taking his last lap — which may be cut off early, as age catches up with the 2000 Reliever of the Year in the WBL.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power2B HR JohnsonCF Dwayne Murphy
Batting EyeC Dick DietzCF Dwayne Murphy
ContactLF Tip O’NeillCF Fred M Lewis
Running SpeedCF Willie MaysCF George Van Haltren
Base StealingLF Jimmy Sheckard; 2B HR JohnsonSP Al Spalding; CF George Van Haltren
IF DefenseSS Brandon Crawford2B Whitey Wietelmann
OF DefenseCF Willie MaysRF Mike Tiernan
StuffRP Grant BalfourRP Henry Rodríguez
ControlSP Pete DonohueSP Al Spalding
VelocityRP Grant BalfourRP Derrick Turnbow

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (27)18SPAmos Rusie
2 (61)26CFDwayne Murphy
3 (76)23SPWilliam VanLandingham

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Masahiro Tanaka (77).

Others: IF Carlos Baerga, IF Alvin Davis, IF Howard Johnson, OF Tully Hartsel.

3 names on the ranked list, and the Gothams know exactly how it got that way — last year’s preview asked them to stop trading away all their damn picks, and they spent 2001 trading more of them. Amos Rusie is the exception and a real one: 18 years old and 27th in all of baseball.

Underneath, the system is infielders the club is hoping into relevance. Carlos Baerga, 19, came from Kansas City in the Kauff deal; Howard Johnson and Davey Johnson arrived from Homestead for Marichal and Nen. At least the January trade brought back picks instead of spending them.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeMike Norris, 37Amos Rusie, 18
HeightRon H Jackson, 6’7″Tully Hartsel, 5’5″
OPSWill Clark, .952Cliff Bolton, .534 (A)
HRWillie Mays, 49George Van Haltren, 0 (AA)
SBTim Shinnick, 72 (A)
WAR (bat)Willie Mays, 4.4George Van Haltren, −1.2 (AA)
WDon Sutton, 17
SVGeorge Jeffcoat, 32 (AAA)
ERAWillie Banks, 3.37 (A)Tully Sparks, 6.10 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Pete Donohue, 4.5 (AAA)Wandy Rodríguez, 0.3 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Chicago American Giants

{ Whoops, one slipped out of alpha order here … }

State of the Franchise

team logo

Chicago reads offensive production better than almost anyone in the league, knows exactly what it lacks, and spends aggressively to fix it. And then it keeps betting on the wrong arm(s), with it not being clear if the issue is bad luck or poor pitching talent evaluation.

The offense is a genuine strength: a deep, patient, on-base machine built around a Big Four — Joe Jackson, Dick Allen, Eddie Collins, Frank Thomas — that is young, exceptional, and beloved. The willingness to open the checkbook is real too.

Underneath that runs a more dangerous habit: it is possible the organization totally misjudges its overall trajectory. The American Giants read a 2000 first-round playoff exit as leaving them one pitching-fix from a title and acted accordingly. Then 2001 ended 73-89, 4th in the Cum Posey Division, 30 games back, with Thomas’s knee blown out in September to cap it.

So who are they? And are the holes in the club — CF, SS, the mound — a whisker or a chasm away from being filled? 2002 is an evaluation year, shadowed by a franchise player who won’t be back until around June, and watched by a fanbase that has learned a hard lesson.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the verdict was confident: championship contention — the offense is just too good not to warrant it, even if moves need to be made in the pitching corps. Turns out, the offense was far more fragile than it seemed. Chicago scored 829 runs in 2000 and 824 in 2001 — flat, which sounds fine until you remember the whole league’s offense exploded last season, so flat meant a fall from 3rd in the league to 18th. The role-player career years (Mike Fiore anyone? How about Duffy Lewis?) that made the 2000 lineup deep rather than top-heavy regressed almost in unison.

Then the part we’d actually flagged went worse than anticipated. The pitching didn’t fail to improve; it collapsed — 156 more runs allowed, the ace Tricky Nichols gone to ineffectiveness and then a July injury, and then an outright release. The worst case we’d sketched, fringe-bat regression and pitching collapse, arrived together and louder than anyone could predict. Thomas’s ACL injury in September was the final indignity on a season already 30 games gone. There is hope, though: through all of it, Joe Jackson simply raked — 355/410/608 with 68 doubles — and, along with a strong season from Allen and a decent (but far from the heights of 2000) year from Collins, as well as Ed Walsh‘s maturation into a rotation anchor, kept a little hope alive for the future. Hard to hold onto as a team loses 89 games, though.

Key Changes

In: Jay Bell (FA); Travis Jackson (HOU)
Out: Ted Lilly (FA); Trea Turner (HOU)

Opening Day Rookies: Víctor Cruz; Travis Jackson; Alex Reyes; Wilbur Wood

Best Case for 2002

Thomas walks back in healthy around June and the Big Four do what they do, anchoring the contact-and-on-base lineup Chicago built on purpose. The shortstop competition produces a real bat, Cristóbal Torriente‘s season looks like his rookie promise instead of his sophomore crater, Chino Smith forces a constant flow of PA with his bat, and — the eternal if for this franchise — the arms Chicago acquired actually translate this time: Ed Walsh looks dependable as an ace, but they need Waite Hoyt and Mark Buehrle to hold the middle, and the rebuilt bullpen to cohere around A.J. Minter.

Worst Case for 2002

The signature failure repeats. The arms don’t translate — again — Torriente’s .485 sophomore line (that’s OPS, not SLG) turns out to be the real one, shortstop is a hole for the third straight year, and with Thomas out until midseason the offense can’t carry a staff that can’t prevent runs. The bridge collapses into another lost season, the 2003 window slides toward someday, and a fanbase that already spent-for-and-got-burned once loses a little more faith.

Key Questions

  • Can Chicago finally find the right arms? There is great hope that the acquisition of Waite Hoyt helps solidify this, but beyond that it’s largely the same names — Buehrle, Ben Sheets, Herb Pennock. Someone has to step up. The habit is old enough to have a founding scar: in 2000, Chicago dealt the franchise’s brightest light, A. Rube Foster, chasing arms that never delivered — and Foster promptly became exactly what they keep failing to buy, a 200-inning, sub-3.50 ace, these days anchoring a rotation in Kansas City.
  • Which Torriente is real? The 19-year-old is the franchise’s “fifth star” bet: elite outfield glove, a genuine shot at being a useful two-way player, and a bat that swung from real promise to a miserable dumpster fire of a sophomore season. The org wants him to be the answer, and continually resists the call for him to sort out his stroke in the minors.
  • Who plays shortstop? Brought over in trade, Travis Jackson seems to have the opening day spot, but FA signing Jay Bell had a stronger spring, and Freddy Parent remains in the wings.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CFisk C · Nilsson · Doyle
1BVernon · Thomas A (IL)
2BCollins B · Chino Smith
SSBell · T. Jackson
3BAllen B · Lindstrom
LFJoe Jackson A · Mitchell
CFTorriente F · Stenzel (IL)
RFChino Smith · Colavito
DHMitchell · Thomas A (IL)
SPWalsh B · Hoyt D · Buehrle F · Sheets D · Moyer · Streeter F · Pennock
RPMinter D (CL) · Wood · Reyes · Cruz · W. Smith

It’s a lineup thick with proven bats and gaping holes. A lot rides on whether one of the SS and Chino Smith can fill those. And Thomas hangs over the whole thing in absentia — the captain whose June return reshuffles first base, designated hitter, and the mood of the season.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerSS Travis Jackson2B George Grantham
Batting Eye1B Frank Thomas1B Mike Fiore
ContactLF Joe JacksonCF Lance Johnson
Running Speed3B Dick AllenCF Lance Johnson
Base StealingC Jack DoyleSS Joe Sullivan
IF DefenseSS Travis JacksonSS Art Fletcher
OF DefenseLF Cristóbal TorrienteRF Magglio Ordóñez; RF Mike A Marshall
StuffSP Sam StreeterRP Jeff Nelson
ControlRP Wilbur WoodRP Joe Edelen
VelocityRP Alex ReyesRP Raisel Iglesias; RP Josh Hader

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (36)25SPJacob deGrom
2 (59)213BFreddie Lindstrom

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Alex Reyes (31), Travis Jackson (64).

A thin list, but there is talent behind. On the mound, deGrom leads a strong contingent with Zack Greinke, Ted Lyons, Harry Buckner, Ricky Bones, and Josh Hader all developing.

A year ago this list ran 7 deep and led with outfielders (Walter Davis, Lenny Dykstra); Dykstra was traded to Birmingham, and only Lindstrom remains (acquired from the Grays last year). The dearth of offensive talent shouldn’t be an issue — shouldn’t.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJamie Moyer, 37Cristóbal Torriente, 19
HeightJeff Nelson, 6’8″Tommy Bond, 5’7″
OPSKevin Mitchell, 1.037Cristóbal Torriente, .485
HRBill D Wilson, 47 (AAA)José Tabata, 0 (AA)
SBEddie Collins, 73
WAR (bat)Joe Jackson, 4.8Duffy Lewis, −1.7
WWaite Hoyt, 11
SVJosh Zeid, 22 (AA)
ERATommy Bond, 3.41 (A)Ben Sheets, 5.88
WAR (pit)Waite Hoyt, 3.1Wayland Dean, −0.3 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Miami Cuban Giants

State of the Franchise

team logo

Two years ago the Cuban Giants were the worst team in the league; last year they were in a playoff race into the final week and finished 80-83, 2nd in the Cum Posey Division, and nobody — inside the building or out — is entirely sure if this is progress or illusion.

Here is what isn’t in dispute. Miami hit an enormous number of home runs in the power-happy 2001 environment. José Canseco hit 68 of them, Jim Thome 59, Gary Sheffield and 20-year-old Julio Rodríguez 42 apiece, and 7 different men hit 28 or more. The lineup is young, deep and distributed — Iván Rodríguez won a Gold Glove behind the plate at 21, Alejandro Oms led the club at .308 at 22, Yasiel Puig slugged .658 in 100 games. So, unlike 2000 (when it was Canseco largely by himself), this is no longer a one-star team.

Still this is not an elite group the deeper you look. Canseco’s 68 homers amassed only 1.7 WAR, and — with one historically notable exception — the defense is not great.

So the season turns on the run prevention, and specifically on the rotation, which is José Méndez and then a lot of uncertainty. Méndez made 37 starts, threw 233 innings, struck out 201 and was worth 7.5 wins in a league whose average ERA was 5.38. Behind him: Jim Whitney, an All-AL Team pick acquired midseason and then pure projection and hope.

2001 Revisited

The bar a year ago was stunningly low: to no longer be considered one of the absolute worst teams in the league would be a nice start. They cleared it in the first month and spent the rest of the summer embarrassing the forecast.

The best case asked for Canseco to repeat and for someone — Molitor, Sheffield, Oms, “or even Puig” — to join him. What actually happened is that nearly everyone did (other than Molitor, who was moved for Pudge, sort of). Thome put up a 1.034 OPS. Sheffield hit 42. Puig hit 298/388/658. And J. Rodríguez, who came into camp with no realistic shot at the roster, took center field on Opening Day and hit 315/347/661 at 20.

The other half of that best case was a front of the rotation built from Camilo Pascual, Freddie Fitzsimmons and Méndez, with Cole Hamels joining them. Méndez delivered. Pascual made 5 starts and blew out a knee. Fitzsimmons was awful, Hamels only slightly better.

And one question got answered: we asked whether Eustaquio Pedroso and Martín Dihigo could carry the 2-way experiment far enough to justify it. Pedroso hit worse than anyone on the roster and abandoned the bat, but maintained the late-inning flexibility. Dihigo, who at 18 was arguably the worst-hitting regular in the league, climbed to 246/291/429 and stole 39 bases — still not a good hitter, and the most interesting player in the organization anyway largely due to his gold glove potential at a half-dozen positions.

Key Changes

In: CC Sabathia (HOD)
Out:

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

The bats hold and the arms arrive. Canseco and Thome do it again, J. Rodríguez proves 2001 wasn’t a fluke, Puig turns 100 good games into 150, and Iván Rodríguez adds the bat to the glove at 22.

Behind Méndez and Whitney, 2 of the question marks answer: Pascual comes back from the knee, Phenomenal Smith turns 5 starts of 1.98 ball into a season, and CC Sabathia — 179 innings for a bad House of David club — finds the form that made him worth acquiring. Hamels is the interesting one: a 6.18 ERA with 168 strikeouts and 2.3 WAR.

Do that and the squinting stops. This is a young roster with a real ace, and the difference between 80 wins and 90 seems attainable.

Worst Case for 2002

The bats come back to earth. Canseco’s .705 slugging settles toward the middle, the outfield defense keeps leaking, and the same offense produces 15 fewer wins because the run environment normalized rather than because anyone got worse.

Meanwhile the rotation stays what it was. Pascual’s knee doesn’t hold, Sabathia pitches like he did last year (5-15, a 5.78, replacement level), Ramón Martínez gives back another 134 innings of 7.17, and the middle innings — already the org’s stated area of concern — go on being handed to whoever didn’t make the rotation.

Key Questions

  • How much of 2001 was the ballpark? The honest answer is: some, and nobody knows how much. 7 men over 28 home runs is a real lineup or a park effect wearing a costume, and Miami will spend the summer finding out which. The tell to watch isn’t the homer totals — it’s the WAR underneath them, which last year said “good, not great.”
  • Is there a rotation behind Méndez/Whitney? He is a genuine ace and a workhorse, and Whitney may be similar. But the questions beyond that need to be answered.
  • Does the flexibility matter? Dihigo has started at 7 positions, Yount is a shortstop with an outfield move already being discussed, Sheffield isn’t really a third baseman at all, and the 2-way experiments seem amusing, but little more than that.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CI. Rodríguez C · Hoiles
1BThome A · Adcock
2BDihigo C · Roberts
SSYount B
3BSheffield A · Branyan
LFOms C · Pafko
CFJ. Rodríguez A
RFPuig B
DHCanseco A
SPMéndez A · Whitney A · Smith · Pascual · Hamels F · Sabathia D
RPPapelbon C (CL) · Marte · Colomé · Pedroso · Wilson

Dihigo is 19 and the cells can’t hold him: he has started at 7 positions, plays a Gold Glove infield, stole 39 bases, and still hasn’t learned to hit. Jonathan Papelbon has the 9th inning, acquired at the deadline in a burst of playoff belief that cost the org a blue-chip arm in Josh Beckett — and Ricky Nolasco, who saved 26 games last year, opens this one at Triple-A trying to become a starter.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerRF José Canseco1B Steve Balboni
Batting Eye1B Jim ThomeRF Carlos Morán
ContactSS Robin Yount2B Nellie Fox
Running Speed2B Martín DihigoCF Marquis Grissom
Base StealingSP Phenomenal SmithSS Bert Campaneris; RP Dan Collins
IF Defense2B Martín Dihigo2B Luis Castillo
OF DefenseRF Yasiel PuigCF Marquis Grissom
StuffRP Dámaso MarteRP Francis Martes
ControlSP Jim WhitneyRP Craig Lefferts
VelocityRP Jonathan PapelbonRP Tyler Clippard

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (44)21SPScott Olsen
2 (49)24LFJason Bay
3 (55)19CLPedro Martínez
4 (60)20SSJack Glasscock
5 (91)22CFJosé Cruz

Others: OF Carlos Morán, P Lefty George, OF Minnie Miñoso, IF Zoilo Versalles.

This system turns over as fast as the roster does: a year ago the list was headed by Josh Beckett and J. Rodríguez with Jon Matlack 3rd, and all 3 are gone — Beckett to Memphis, Rodríguez into the everyday center-field job, Matlack to the House of David for Sabathia.

What replaced them is arm-heavy and young: Scott Olsen, Jason Bay, and a 19-year-old Pedro Martínez making his A ball debut. Lefty George took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year and Carlos Morán is the name the club talks about as Sheffield’s eventual replacement at third.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJoe Adcock, 40Ed Seward, 18
HeightCC Sabathia, 6’7″Phenomenal Smith, 5’6″
OPSCarlos Quentin, 1.082 (AA)Willie Kamm, .567 (AA)
HRJosé Canseco, 68Luis Castillo, 1 (AA)
SBCarlos Morán, 52 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Bob Loane, 4.6 (AA)Cookie Rojas, −2.8
WDon Wilson, 13 (AA)
SVJonathan Papelbon, 28
ERAGary Gentry, 3.07 (AA)Ramón Martínez, 7.17
WAR (pit)José Méndez, 7.5CC Sabathia, −0.0

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.

First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.

There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.

So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.

The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.

So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.

One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.

Key Changes

In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)

Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts

Best Case for 2002

The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.

Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.

Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.

Worst Case for 2002

Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.

The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.

Key Questions

  • Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
  • Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
  • What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHartnett B · Wilkins
1BOrtiz B
2BLeMahieu C · Pedroia
SSBogaerts · Everett
3BBoggs C · Shaw
LFWilliams A · Benintendi
CFSmith C
RFBriggs A
DHRamírez A
SPOvermire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D
RPMiller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz

Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Ted WilliamsCF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeLF Ted WilliamsCF Roy Thomas
Contact3B Wade BoggsRF Bill Buckner
Running SpeedSS Herman LongSS Bud Harrelson
Base StealingLF Andrew BenintendiRF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley
IF DefenseSS Herman Long2B Jonathan Schoop
OF DefenseLF Andrew BenintendiCF Dain Clay
StuffRP Heath BellRP Justin Miller
ControlSP Jameson TaillonSP Carl Mays
VelocityRP Heath Bell; RP Andrew MillerRP Jensen Lewis

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (16)22LFJoe Kelley
2 (19)21SPJosh Beckett
3 (23)21LFCarl Yastrzemski
4 (39)24LFJoe Rudi
5 (70)221BJoe Cunningham
6 (81)21RFBill Buckner

Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.

6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.

The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTim Wakefield, 37Mickey McDermott, 17
HeightDerek Lowe, 6’6″Hack Wilson, 5’6″
OPSDavid Ortiz, 1.047Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA)
HRManny Ramírez, 46Dain Clay, 1 (A)
SBRoy Thomas, 38 (A)
WAR (bat)Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA)Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA)
WStubby Overmire, 13
SVAndrew Miller, 6
ERABill Husted, 2.92 (A)Red Ruffing, 6.90
WAR (pit)Stubby Overmire, 4.2David Bush, 0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first Angels preview said the pitching should be solid, especially up front behind Doc Gooden and Gerrit Cole.

And, for a year, it was correct. But since then, their paths — and the fortunes of the franchise — have diverged. Gooden made the AL All-Star team at 23, threw 194 innings and struck out 172, and is on the fringes of the truly dominant starters in the league. That’s where Cole was in 2000, but last season, Cole went 7-15 with a 6.36 ERA and gave up 53 home runs in 166 innings. That’s … not good.

The offense seems decent enough — 2 genuine young stars (Mike Trout and Kal Daniels combined for 79 home runs, 81 doubles, and 100 stolen bases) and now, perhaps 3 with the arrival of Freddie Freeman (333/422/677 over 30 games). There are some questions here — catching has always been an issue, and the MI has never truly settled (even less so since the organization traded away Bobby Grich).

All of that sounds OK, but Los Angeles has declared they are actively displeased with OK, and spent the winter making some extreme changes. The net of it all is their 2 best starters — Tom Seaver and Brett Anderson — are gone, replaced by José Rijo and prayer, the lineup now sports Dobie Moore at SS and Billy Herman at 2B (Moore via trade, Herman via the Rule V draft), Richie Hebner floating around the corner IF with the departure of Doug Rader, and Dwight Evans as the 4th OF, and the Angels accumulated some MiL talent and — most importantly — a 1st round pick.

The window is 2004 and nobody is pretending otherwise. What 2002 is for is finding out which of these arms is real.

2001 Revisited

We asked for playoff contention and got 74-88, 3rd in the Cum Posey Division, 29 games out.

The forecast split cleanly down the middle. Everything it wanted from the bats happened: Trout became the superstar the best case demanded, taking the organizational MVP and finishing 3rd for the Mel Trench Award; Carlos Delgado held off age at 32 and led the club with 44 homers.

Everything it wanted from the arms went the other way. The best case named 6 pitchers who might make good on immense potential — Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Sid Fernandez — (since released) and only Gooden did. Cole, the 2000 ace, was the collapse. Seaver was thoroughly meh and Pud Galvin — while certainly useful in a rubber-armed way — was effectively ordinary across 20 starts.

So the worst case, which predicted a hot mess on the mound and a Doug Rader reversion, was the more accurate take. Rader went from borderline MVP candidate to a pedestrian third baseman and was traded in March.

The other thing 2001 taught was about the bottom of the lineup. Ichiro Suzuki won a Gold Glove, played 140 games, and walked 7 times all year on his way to a .688 OPS and −1.2 WAR. Steve Garvey walked 8 times in 405 plate appearances. 1,400 PA, 15 walks. That’s no way to run a railroad.

Key Changes

In: Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (MEM); Richie Hebner (HOD); Billy Herman (FA); Dobie Moore (MEM); Jeff Pfeffer (KAN); José Rijo (KAN)

Out: Brett Anderson (HOD); Jay Bell (FA); Xander Bogaerts (MEM); Doug Rader (KAN); Tom Seaver (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: Dwight Evans; Jeurys Familia; Freddie Freeman; Billy Herman; Darren Holmes; Ross Reynolds

Best Case for 2002

Gooden finishes the climb to undisputed ace, and 2 of the arms behind him declare themselves. Rijo struck out 154 in Kansas City, Julio Teheran struck out 90 in 82 innings, Vic Willis is 23 and full of promise, and Ross Reynolds allowed exactly 1 home run (in the homer-happy context of the 2001 WBL) all season out of the pen. And the list of names above still waits: Finley, Ryan and Elmer Smith all open the year at Las Vegas.

And then the offense settles into sustained delivery: Freeman hits the way he did in September, Richie Hebner brings the 284/373/594 he posted for the House of David to third base, Moore settles shortstop at 21, and Gene Tenace — who walked 32 times in 155 plate appearances at Birmingham before the trade — gives the lineup an on-base bat.

The wins may not follow, and that’s allowed. 2002 is about answers.

Worst Case for 2002

Nobody separates. The pool stays a pool, Cole’s home-run rate is just who he is now. The bullpen is the near-term version of the same problem. Francisco Rodríguez was among the worst closers in the league at 6.87, Pfeffer arrives off a 6.16, Bill Doak off a 6.37. None of that changes, and Suzuki’s bat doesn’t move, Herman doesn’t hold second base, and the lineup around Trout and Daniels looks no better than it did in 2001.

Key Questions

  • Does what happens in Vegas matter? Oddly, many of the keys to LA’s future open the season at AAA in Las Vegas, where Mike Witt, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, John Lackey, Mike Krukow and Carlos Mármol all start the season. The org needs 2 or 3 of that group to separate, and it has deliberately arranged the year to find out — promote for clarity, not for reward.
  • Is the trust in the Doc warranted? The sharpest question of the Angels’ winter is why they sold Brett Anderson (11-6 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 189 innings and won the organizational Pitcher of the Year) and kept Gooden (11-11 with a 4.36, a 1.29 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 194). Those are essentially the same season, and the fanbase will be keeping close tabs on how Anderson fares for the House of David.
  • Can anybody in the bottom half reach base? Every bat the org brought in — Hebner, Tenace, Moore, even Eddie Joost — gets on base.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CTenace · Hassey
1BFreeman
2BHerman
SSMoore C · Joost
3BHebner A · Garvey
LFDaniels S
CFTrout S · Evans
RFSuzuki F
DHDelgado B
SPGooden C · Rijo C · Cole F · Galvin · Willis
RPRodríguez F · Reynolds B · Pfeffer F · Familia · Holmes · Doak

The bullpen is unsettled, most likely a committee approach until someone takes hold of the closer role.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Dwight Evans1B Jack Hannifin
Batting EyeSS Eddie JoostCF Jack Gleason
ContactRF Ichiro SuzukiLF Elmer Smith
Running SpeedRF Ichiro SuzukiCF Denard Span
Base StealingSP Pud GalvinCF Devon White; C Dave Pierson
IF Defense2B Billy Herman1B High Pockets Kelly
OF DefenseCF Dwight EvansCF Jim Landis
StuffRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan
ControlSP Roy Patterson; SP Pud GalvinSP Brian J Anderson
VelocityRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (46)192BRod Carew
2 (73)221BBabe Herman
3 (74)23LFSteve Henderson
4 (99)25CLCarlos Mármol

Others: P John Lackey, P Luke Walker, P Mike Witt, 3B Pedro Álvarez.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dwight Evans (26).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep and 8 of the 10 were pitchers, led by Elmer Smith at 19th in all of baseball. Smith is 26 and at Triple-A now, trying to figure out how to harness his genuine 2-way potential. Seaver graduated and was flipped to Memphis; Reynolds graduated into the bullpen and made the AL Rookie Team; Randy Tate, Marcus Semien, Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Nimmo all fell off the board.

What tops it now is a bat — 19-year-old Rod Carew, last year’s 1st-round pick, a second baseman who is unlikely to stay one. Babe Herman (no relation to Billy) and Steve Henderson supply corner power behind him, and Mármol is the lone arm.

The list understates the system, though, because the interesting part isn’t ranked. Las Vegas is carrying most of the pitching depth in the organization plus Pedro Álvarez, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, and Jack Hannifin, who hit 63 home runs there and turns 28 this year.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEddie Joost, 34Chris Archer, 19
HeightMike Witt, 6’7″Albie Pearson, 5’5″
OPSJack Hannifin, 1.078 (AAA)Denard Span, .514 (A)
HRJack Hannifin, 63 (AAA)Elmer Smith, 0
SBKal Daniels, 55
WAR (bat)Mike Trout, 5.7Ichiro Suzuki, −1.2
WDwight Gooden, 11
SVAl Jackson, 29 (A)
ERATom Morgan, 3.07 (A)Mike Krukow, 7.25 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Tom Morgan, 4.0 (A)Julio Teheran, −0.4

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Indianapolis ABC’s

State of the Franchise

team logo

Indianapolis sees a path to victory based on roster depth and flexibility. The challenge is they still need quality — a gap the organization has been addressing, bit by bit, and optimism runs high for the ABC’s in 2002.

The instinct is as old as the franchise, with the most discussed impact being Indianapolis’ commitment to being the only club in the WBL that runs a 6-man rotation by choice. And they’ve been solid at addressing their holes — the OF was a churn of bodies in 2000, less so in 2001, and heading into 2002, the holes in the roster have shrunk considerably. Given they were in the postseason last Fall a year ahead of schedule, the optimism may be warranted.

The core is exceptional: Oscar Charleston in center, Johnny Bench behind the plate, Joe Morgan at second, Luis Padrón on the mound — 21, 26, 22 and 22 years old. Of the 4, Padrón is both the highest risk (pitchers, don’t you know), and the most important: the offense hasn’t shown that it can carry the club on its own, and Padrón’s dependable ace-level start is needed. The ABC’s are working on it, though: 3B was mediocre last year (no insult intended for the workmanlike production of Chris Sabo), so they gave up the most precious commodity in the WBL — pitching talent in the shape of Tom Glavine, George Medich and Jack Billingham — to Portland for third baseman Buddy Bell (repeated WBL failure Robin Ventura was included as well, but that was as much a favor to him to get a fresh start as anything else; of course Indianapolis was his prior fresh start).

Billingham’s inclusion is potentially telling. Rob Dibble led a carnival ride of a bullpen (Dibble saved 24 games with a 4.87 ERA and 29 walks in 44 innings) with Billingham being the single steady arm. The move signals faith in the options in hand, but we’ll see.

2001 Revisited

The bar for 2001 was modest: playing .500 ball would be a nice step; doing so while nurturing some talent for the future would begin to raise hopes. Indianapolis went 80-83, missing the bar, but qualifying for a Wild Card series anyway — 2nd in the Marvin Miller Division, in October a year early.

Three things came together. Padrón, a curiosity in last year’s preview, went 23-3 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at 22 and took the Brock Rutherford Award. Charleston hit 337/381/619 at 21 with 38 homers and 46 steals, and led the WBL with 14 triples. Morgan hit 306/425/612 in 104 games and then was hurt in September, essentially dooming the playoff run.

Padrón’s emergence masked some serious questions: the ABC’s were banking on the continued development of Doc White and Willie Mitchell. Both regressed a bit: White posted a 6.55 ERA and Mitchell walked 55 in 118 innings.

Speaking of regression … Bench was arguably the best backstop in the WBL in 2000; in 2001, he still led the club with 46 homers, but hit only .238, dropping about 3-and-a-half WAR from 2000. A catcher producing a 2.3 WAR still has immense value, but there is a significant gap there, and it’s not clear which is more likely for his career.

Key Changes

In: Buddy Bell (POR); Jeff D Robinson (NYY)
Out: Jack Billingham (POR); Ed Charles (NYY); Robin Ventura (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Norm Charlton; Luke Gregerson; Billy McCool; Jeff D Robinson; Ed Swartwood; Steve Yeager

Best Case for 2002

Most of all, Padrón repeats. But, also, Bench bounces back, Morgan stays on the field for a full year, and Charleston at 22 is what he was at 21. Bell settles third base and the supporting cast holds its shape: George Foster‘s 38 homers, Joey Votto‘s 36 alongside a Gold Glove, Bob Bescher stealing 80 bases out of the bottom of the order.

And the ninth inning resolves itself in-house. Luke Gregerson, Norm Charlton or 19-year-old Billy McCool takes the job, Dibble’s walks come down, and a Wild Card team turns into a problem for the rest of the division.

Worst Case for 2002

The bullpen remains an unpredictable ordeal, Morgan’s health goes again, or Padrón’s 235 innings at 22 prove a serious error in judgement.

Barry Larkin doesn’t hit, shortstop goes back on the want list, and the lineup turns out to be homers and walks stapled to a lot of empty at-bats: 4 of the 9 regulars hit .246 or worse last year.

Key Questions

  • Where does the eighth inning come from? Behind Dibble are Pedro Strop, Gregerson, Charlton, McCool and Jeff D Robinson, a set of live arms with a combined big-league record of nearly nothing. Rob Murphy, the other half of last year’s back end, posted a 5.66 and opens this season at Triple-A.
  • Does the 6-man rotation survive? I mean, at some point this stops being a question and just the operating norm for Indianapolis. But it’s still a bit of a curiosity, and last year’s final form was really more akin to 4 starters taking irregular turns behind Padrón and Johnny Cueto. Cueto threw 212 innings of 4.62 ball; behind the 2 horses sit veteran Eppa Rixey (5.16 in the WBL, 3.88 at Triple-A), Mitchell, White, and 20-year-old Edward Nolan, who struck out 94 in 83 innings while walking 52.
  • Does the offense hold a second season? It raked, and it did it strangely: Bench at .238, Adam Dunn at .207 with 36 homers and 30 steals, Foster at .259 with 38. The power and the on-base are real, the batting averages are not. That means the margin for error is pretty slim, and any regression or dip could tank the offense entirely.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBench B · Yeager
1BVotto C
2BMorgan S
SSLarkin D · Menke
3BBell D · Sabo D
LFBescher D · Dunn D
CFCharleston S
RFFoster C · Swartwood · Mondesi
DHDunn D
SPPadrón S · Cueto C · Rixey · Nolan · White F · Mitchell · Luque
RPDibble D (CL) · Gregerson · Charlton · McCool · Robinson · Strop

One line in that grid is doing 2 jobs. Padrón made 33 starts on the mound in 2001 and also started 23 games at third base and 14 at second, taking 259 plate appearances — a genuine 2-way season.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Johnny BenchCF Dave Henderson
Batting Eye2B Joe Morgan3B Harlond Clift
ContactRF Oscar CharlestonLF Pete Rose
Running SpeedRF Raúl MondesiSS Tex McDonald; LF Gary Redus
Base StealingSS Barry LarkinLF Vince Coleman; CF Sam Mertes
IF DefenseSS Barry Larkin1B Sean Casey
OF DefenseRF Oscar CharlestonRF Nelson R Cruz
StuffRP Rob DibbleRP Rob Murphy
ControlSP Tommy BondRP Joe Moeller
VelocityRP Pedro StropRP Bobby Jenks

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (38)21LFDave Winfield
2 (48)20SPJim Maloney
3 (82)21SPPete Schourek
4 (84)241BSean Casey

Others: 3B Bob Aspromonte, SS Donie Bush, 3B Oliver Marcell, P Brad Radke.

That is a short list. A year ago it ran 10 deep and led with 2 teenage arms; Edward Nolan has graduated into the rotation and Foster into the outfield, while Ventura and Tom Glavine — 4th and 7th on that list — went to Portland in the Bell deal. Dave Winfield, the 15th pick of the 2001 draft but nearing readiness for the WBL level already, is the bat that replaced them at the top, and Jim Maloney is still the arm to watch, though at 20 he’s being asked to move from the bullpen into a rotation. Sean Casey is a big-league-ready first baseman with Votto in front of him.

What’s underneath is infield-shaped and a year or 2 out: Aspromonte and Marcell are the 3B pair, Bush the in-house answer at shortstop, Radke the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year. And for the sentimental, Pete Rose, is playing out the string at the Cincinnati affiliate, having gotten his WBL looks and not hit a lick in them. But, you know, don’t bet against him.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Swartwood, 35Ricky Gutiérrez, 18
HeightKameron Loe, 6’8″Donie Bush, 5’6″
OPSAvisaíl García, 1.036 (AAA)Matt Chapman, .448 (A)
HRJohnny Bench, 46Johnny Temple, 0 (AA)
SBBob Bescher, 80
WAR (bat)Oscar Charleston, 5.0Johnny Temple, −1.3 (AA)
WLuis Padrón, 23
SVRob Dibble, 24
ERABrad Radke, 3.12 (A)Doc White, 6.55
WAR (pit)Luis Padrón, 7.8Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Wandering House of David

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first House of David preview, 3 years ago, said there was a lot of talent here and the club was a year or 2 away. That is still, more or less, the pitch for the South Side travellers.

The bats are not (and never have been) the problem. Ernie Banks hit 59 home runs from shortstop last year, Ryne Sandberg hit 42 more at 33, and Anthony Rizzo claimed first base with a 287/391/594 season that was the most complete offensive year on the club. Behind them the org has bats stacked in the places bats are easiest to find — 4 first basemen on the roster, 2 catchers, and a Triple-A club that opens the season with Tony Conigliaro (7 homers in 24 WBL games last September), Jim Edmonds and Mark Grace (a 1.008 OPS) on it, because there is nowhere to put them.

The problem is the mound, and it has been for a year. Jack Taylor, who was an ace in 2000, gave back 192 innings of 5.90 ball. Bob Rush won a Gold Glove and posted a 5.28. Fergie Jenkins struck out 131 in 132 innings and finished with a 6.55. Nobody was good except a 22-year-old nobody expected (Kyle Peterson, more below).

So the season leans on Brett Anderson, 23 and acquired from Los Angeles in March for Richie Hebner — 189 innings, 172 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP for the Angels last year, and the closest thing to a front-line arm this org has had since Taylor. He doesn’t have to be an ace here, he just has to offer some stability to a beleaguered, revolving door of a rotation.

2001 Revisited

We asked for one thing: a repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum. The House of David went 78-84 and finished 4th, 7 games out, which is 5 games worse than the year before.

Ouch.

The odd part is how thoroughly both halves of the forecast missed. The best case had 4 clauses — repeat years from Taylor and Rush, a healthy Pete Browning, Elrod Hendricks not backsliding, the outfield sorting itself out — and 4 of 4 came up empty. Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field (again). Hendricks won a Gold Glove (the bleachers cheer!) and hit 195/291/416 (the bleachers fall silent, reluctant as they are to boo the hometown heroes). The outfield is no more settled today than it was then.

Meanwhile the worst case named Hebner, Ron Santo and Banks as the marginal men who might not step forward, and warned that Rizzo would regress. Banks put up a .968 OPS with 126 RBIs and won the organizational MVP. Hebner slashed 284/373/594 and pushed his way into more playing time all season. Rizzo broke out.

Where it did come true was the arm the preview never mentioned. Peterson went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts and took the organizational Pitcher of the Year — the one thing that went right on a staff where everything else went wrong.

And there was Sammy Sosa, traded away in a slump in 2000 and bought back a year later off a 144-plate-appearance hot streak at Memphis. He hit 195/240/478 with 41 homers, walked almost never, and was worth nearly 2 wins below replacement. 41 homeruns (the bleachers cheer!). A negative WAR (the bleachers shrug and reach for their beer). Our own review of the deal put it more concisely: this feels like being robbed.

Key Changes

In: Brett Anderson (LAA); Dellin Betances (FA)
Out: Richie Hebner (LAA); Billy Herman (FA); CC Sabathia (MCG)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

Anderson is what his strikeout rate says he is, Taylor remembers 2000, and Peterson holds. Behind them Rick Reuschel keeps being the most valuable arm on the staff — he led all House of David pitchers in WAR last year out of a swing role — and Jenkins, who owns the best raw stuff in the organization, finally delivers on it.

The lineup does what it already does, with health. Browning plays 140 games, George Gore and his .389 on-base get a full season instead of half of one, Santo takes the step a 22-year-old with 29 homers is entitled to, and one of the Triple-A bats forces the issue.

In a weak division, that’s enough. Or, could be enough.

Worst Case for 2002

Peterson’s rookie year came with 63 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is the profile that tends to regress. Anderson’s move doesn’t take. Taylor is what he was last year rather than what he was in 2000, and the rotation is a committee with nobody up front for a 2nd straight season.

And the roster’s thin construction hurts. Craig Reynolds is going to get a lot of PA, backing up both Sandberg and Banks, and he doesn’t look like a WBL bat. If Banks slides, Sandberg ages, and Sosa keeps being a muscled bundle of empty power, the bombs will keep landing in the street behind the bleachers, and the club will keep losing 8-5.

Key Questions

  • Where does the first arm come from? This staff has no settled answer to who starts opening day and why. Taylor has the pedigree and a 5.90; Peterson has the results and a strikeout rate that argues with them; Anderson has the peripherals and a 4.34 ERA; Jenkins has, by some distance, the best raw arm in the org and a track record that has never once matched it.
  • Does anybody here get on base? Banks reached at .314, Sosa at .240, Hendricks at .291, Santo at .311. Frank Chance ran 43 steals out of a .322 on-base built on a .214 average, which is its own kind of achievement. The 2 genuinely patient bats — Rizzo at .391 and Gore at .389 — are the least celebrated men in the lineup, which tells you something about a fanbase that came for the 450-foot shot and is not going to be talked out of it.
  • What happens if a middle infielder goes down? Sandberg at 33 and Banks at 26 are the 2 best players on the team and they play the 2 positions with nothing behind them. Heliodoro Hidalgo, the 7th-ranked prospect in baseball, is a year away at Triple-A. This is the one hole on the roster that cannot be covered from what’s already in the building.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHendricks D · Chance
1BRizzo B · Anson
2BSandberg A
SSBanks S · Reynolds
3BSanto C
LFStone C
CFGore C · Browning
RFSosa F
DHMcGwire · Beckwith
SPTaylor D · Anderson B · Peterson B · Reuschel D · Rush D · Jenkins · Clinton (IL)
RPSpooner B · Bauta D · Betances · Key · Shaw · Downs

John Beckwith is 20 and broke camp on a WBL roster having hit 4 home runs in a full Double-A season — the ceiling is enormous and the track record is a rumor. And Frank Chance is a catcher who stole 43 bases, which is not a sentence that gets written often; he is also the club’s answer against left-handed pitching and its leadoff man, at a position where the incumbent just won a Gold Glove.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B John BeckwithSP Jocko Flynn
Batting Eye1B Mark McGwireRF Olaf Henriksen
ContactCF Pete Browning1B Mark Grace
Running SpeedRF Sammy SosaRF Will Venable
Base StealingCF Pete BrowningSP George Zettlein; 2B Bingo DeMoss
IF Defense2B Ryne Sandberg3B Dave Malarcher; 2B Heliodoro Hidalgo
OF DefenseCF George Gore; RF Sammy SosaLF Sam Fuld
StuffRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood
ControlSP Jack W. TaylorRP Tom Dukes; SP George Zettlein
VelocityRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (7)202BHeliodoro Hidalgo
2 (15)21SPJocko Flynn
3 (37)24CFDanny Green
4 (43)212BBingo DeMoss
5 (98)21LFCody Bellinger

Others: P Larry Dierker, 1B Mark Grace, P Jon Matlack, P Joe Nuxhall.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Cap Anson (12).

A year ago this list was 10 deep and led by Frank Grant, the 2nd-ranked prospect in baseball — a second baseman, traded to San Francisco in July for John Beckwith. Karl Spooner and Peterson graduated onto the staff, Anson onto the roster, and Dave Malarcher slid off the board entirely. What replaced them is, pointedly, middle infield: Hidalgo came from Kansas City in the Lee Smith deadline sale and ranks 7th in all of baseball, with Bingo DeMoss drafted to fill the need (it’s not clear where Hidalgo ends up defensively).

Underneath, the system is teenage arms and one very stuck bat. Jon Matlack is 19; Joe Nuxhall is 17 and Larry Dierker 19. And Mark Grace put up a 1.008 OPS at Triple-A at 28, but seems destined to a AAAA label or a change of scenery.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeSkeeter Barnes, 35Joe Nuxhall, 17
HeightDellin Betances, 6’7″Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPSMark Grace, 1.008 (AAA)Darren Daulton, .437 (A)
HRErnie Banks, 59José Uribe, 1 (AA)
SBFrank Chance, 43
WAR (bat)Ryne Sandberg, 3.7Sammy Sosa, −1.9
WKyle Peterson, 15
SVAd Gumbert, 10 (AA)
ERALarry Dierker, 1.78 (A)Larry Jackson, 6.61
WAR (pit)Kyle Peterson, 4.9Larry Jackson, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Houston Colt .45’s

State of the Franchise

team logo

Houston has the coldest front office in the league: a compliment.

The Colt .45’s were surprise contenders in 2001 (85-77, a first Marvin Miller Division title, and a playoff round won before Brooklyn ended their season). This team was built without sentiment. Surplus value is currency; names don’t matter, they’ve moved out Lance Berkman, HR Johnson, and Stubby Overmire in major deals, each one built around the notion that they brought more talent in than they surrendered.

The engine underneath is young. The everyday core runs 20 to 25 — Carlos Correa at short, Jeff Bagwell at first, Jim Wynn in center, 20-year-old Pete Hill in left — with a farm system stuffed with arms. The weak point over each of the past 2 seasons has been the bullpen, which has stumbled at every opportunity despite a wealth of good-looking arms — pointing to a challenge either in evaluation or a long string of poor fortune.

And all of it is watched by the most analytics-literate crowd in the league — a fanbase that reads value correctly and whose standing grievance is that nobody outside the 713 appreciates what they’re building.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the diagnosis was the offense — too weak across the board, especially in its ability to hit for power — and the prescription was for the established bats to break out: some combination of George Brett, Craig Biggio, and Andrés Galarraga.

They didn’t — those 3 in particular. Biggio hit 234/333/398. Brett scuffled to .227 in 357 plate appearances. Galarraga hit his way to a demotion.

Houston won the division anyway, which is the whole point of this franchise. Correa erupted for 318/399/556 and settled the shortstop question to the point Houston was willing to deal Johnson. Tony Gwynn flirted with .400 before tailing off a bit after the All-Star break. Toad Ramsey knuckleballed his way to 282 strikeouts and an 8.2 WAR, arguably the best pitching season anyone had. Clemens won 17. Wynn hit 37 homers and added 38 steals with a .359 OBP and, as usual, was noticed by almost nobody.

The power never really arrived — which is an ongoing concern, and largely responsible for Gorman Thomas making the Opening Day roster (Thomas had a strong showing at the end of last season, and the team is anticipating that Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt add to their longball numbers as well).

The one thing that went exactly as feared was the bullpen — it didn’t seem to matter who they used, they all got hammered. Sparky Lyle, the arm they sold Johnson to get, had a 3.86 ERA in New York and a 10.12 in Houston.

And yet: division title, Wild Card series win, and clear-eyed optimism for the future.

Key Changes

In: Trea Turner (CAG)
Out: Travis Jackson (CAG)

Opening Day Rookies: Vida Blue; Shanty Hogan; Roberto Osuna; Aramis Ramírez; Will Smith; Gorman Thomas; Trea Turner

Best Case for 2002

The young core steps forward instead of back. Correa’s breakout proves real, and behind Ramsey and Clemens the reclamation arms bounce the way the org keeps insisting they will — Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg were both 4-WAR aces once, and Oswalt’s spring (a 0.69 ERA, the command back) confirms Houston’s faith in them.

Hill and the kids keep climbing, and more power develops throughout the lineup. And the perennial if finally lands: 1 of the electric bullpen arms converts, and Houston has an 8th and 9th inning to go with everything else.

And, with all that, the team confirms that it’s built to be good for a long time.

Worst Case for 2002

The pen stays exactly what it has been. Correa’s 2001 turns out to have been the career year rather than the launching pad. Brett’s swing stays both pretty and empty. And perhaps most concerning, Oswalt and Strasburg stay frustratingly promising, but without impact. Ramsey proves to have been a fluke, leaving the rotation bereft of much beyond Clemens.

Key Questions

  • Will the bullpen ever convert? A maddening question, because it’s not a blind spot — the org sees it perfectly. The pen is stocked with electric arms that don’t get outs: Billy Wagner‘s stuff grades near the top of the league and he posted an 8.20 ERA. The relievers who actually work are the soft-tossers, Tug McGraw and Andrew Chafin. A large share of Houston’s churn is nothing more than repeated attempts to fix this one thing.
  • Which Correa is real? The franchise committed hard after the breakout, clearing the middle infield to hand him shortstop outright, and the spring keeps agreeing (a 1.105 OPS). But a .955 season from a 23-year-old could very well be a mirage.
  • How far does trusting young arms go? Further than anywhere else in the league, for sure: Elton Chamberlain threw 108 innings of 3.56 ball with 100 strikeouts at 19. The next test case is Leon Day, 20, whom the org holds as a future front-of-rotation starter on conviction alone — his 2001 was an 8.49 ERA in a WBL look and 8.34 at Triple-A.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CSmith · Hogan
1BBagwell B · Goldschmidt
2BBiggio D · Turner
SSCorrea A
3BBrett F · Ramírez
LFHill C
CFWynn B · O’Rourke B
RFGwynn B
DHGoldschmidt · Bagwell B
SPRamsey S · Clemens B · Chamberlain · Oswalt F · Strasburg D
RPLyle D (CL) · McGraw D · Chafin A · Wagner · Osuna

What the cells won’t tell you: Jim Wynn may be the best player on the roster.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Jim Wynn1B Harry Stovey
Batting Eye1B Paul Goldschmidt3B Morgan Ensberg
ContactRF Tony GwynnCF Kirby Puckett
Running Speed2B Trea TurnerCF Willy Taveras
Base StealingSP Elton Chamberlain; CF Jim O’RourkeSP Ed Morris
IF Defense3B George BrettSS Roy McMillan
OF DefenseRF Pete HillCF Willy Taveras
StuffRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge
ControlRP Roberto OsunaRP Dan Quisenberry; RP Tim Crews
VelocityRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (2)20SPEd Morris
2 (33)22SPCarlos Rodón
3 (40)19CFCésar Cedeño
4 (53)222BYoán Moncada
5 (62)26CFKirby Puckett
6 (69)202BTommy Harper
7 (87)22SPScott Bankhead
8 (89)20SPRick Wise

Others: P Leon Day, P Bill Harper, P Lance McCullers, P Bret Saberhagen.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Trea Turner (21), Will Smith (42).

The deepest, most pitching-rich system in the league. Recent draftee Ed Morris ranks 2nd in all of baseball. Carlos Rodón — pried out of New York in the HR Johnson sale — threw 137 innings at a 2.29 ERA with 121 strikeouts, and with Scott Bankhead and Rick Wise that makes 4 ranked starters. César Cedeño, Kirby Puckett and Tommy Harper feed the outfield behind them.

A year ago this list was topped by Chamberlain, who has since graduated into the rotation, and by catcher Will Smith, who is now the everyday backstop.

Then there’s the layer nobody ranks, which is also arms: Bret Saberhagen is 21 and put up a 3.03 at AA. Lance McCullers is 21 and saved 33 games in the minors, and there is, of course, Day.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeGorman Thomas, 32Mike Hedlund, 18
HeightJohn O’Donoghue, 6’6″Ed Morris, 5’7″
OPSKen Henderson, 1.125 (AA)Jorge Polanco, .480 (A)
HRGorman Thomas, 50 (AAA)Roy McMillan, 1 (AA)
SBJim Wynn, 38
WAR (bat)Ken Henderson, 5.4 (AA)Victor Reyes, −2.2 (A)
WRoger Clemens, 17
SVLance McCullers, 33 (AA)
ERACarlos Rodón, 2.18 (A)Leon Day, 6.79 (AA)
WAR (pit)Toad Ramsey, 8.2Dock Ellis, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Homestead Grays

State of the Franchise

team logo

2 straight losing seasons will get a club overlooked. But the Grays are used to it — Pittsburgh to the core. But 2001 was the year Homestead stopped being a project for the future and started making noise in the present, hanging around the playoff race into the stretch run. Nobody was more surprised than the hometown Yinzers.

Most of the credit goes to a 22-year-old catcher. Josh Gibson hit 400/494/818 with 49 homers and a 12.1 WAR — the first .400 season in WBL history, and a declaration of what is possible in the years to come.

This is a blue-collar club with one commandment, the field is the arbiter. That’s led to a fanbase that lives and dies on offense while holding its breath through every start. The lineup mashes. The pitching is a pile of arms eternally waiting to be sorted. Around Gibson sits a genuinely young core — Willie Stargell the ageless exception, but everyone else in their twenties. Pair that with the 6th-best farm system in the league, and there is something brewing here that demands notice.

2001 Revisited

We told you last spring to expect a step over .500 and, above all, some clarity — on the young infield, on the pile of arms, on who this team actually is. We got 1 of the 3, emphatically.

They finished 77-85, 3rd in the Effa Manley Division, under .500 for a 2nd straight year. So not so much on the first goal. But some questions were indeed answered: Gibson is real. He took the NL Mel Trench Award, a Silver Slugger, and the organizational MVP, at an age when most catchers are still riding buses in the low minors.

He wasn’t alone. Stargell, at 31, declined to acknowledge the calendar — 56 homers and a 1.001 OPS. Rick Reichardt kept grinding (284/355/586 with 39 of his own), Andy Van Slyke played 4 positions, stole 64 bases and led the club in both, and an 18-year-old named Judy Johnson posted a .408 on-base while bouncing around the infield. 5 Grays made the NL All-Star team.

The pitching was something else. 26 arms cycled through the staff. Only Bartolo Colón, who climbed from Double-A to the big club and put up a 2.36 ERA across 50 innings, and the wholly unforeseen Doug Drabek inspired any confidence at all. The deadline help was worse than no help: Juan Marichal posted an 11.40 ERA in a Grays uniform and David Price a 9.00, and neither had been pitching well when Homestead bought them. Which begs the question of why bring them in at all?

The one lasting dividend from that summer was Robb Nen, who turned a thin bullpen into something like a strength. Nen’s contributions weren’t enough to keep them in the Wild Card hunt — but they were enough to raise some hopes for 2002.

Key Changes

In: Logan Hensley (FA); Sherm Lollar (FA)
Out: Nip Winters (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Babe Adams; Logan Hensley; Brook Jacoby; Ricardo Rincón; Rennie Stennett

Best Case for 2002

Colón keeps it up over a full season, Drabek proves last year was no accident, and 1 of the arms buried in the churn does something. That’s all this team needs — not an ace, just a rotation that holds, because the offense will do the rest.

Squint and you can see Gibson being Gibson, Honus Wagner and/or Nap Lajoie finally hitting (and, in doing so, cementing the middle infield for years to come), Stargell aging like wine for 1 more year, and the less heralded bats — Reichardt, Mike Epstein — putting up the numbers nobody outside Pittsburgh believes can continue.

And if that isn’t enough, help may be a phone call away. The clock may start on the crown jewel of their system, SP Clayton Kershaw, sooner than anticipated. Currently the 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Kershaw spent last year striking out 119 in 134 innings of A-ball, and starts 2002 at AAA — skipping AA entirely.

If all of it lands, the Grays contend well ahead of schedule.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching remains a black box full of fear and pain, and the Grays panic, buying more “veteran arms” to help, whether or not they’re any good. Wagner and Lajoie’s long evaluation returns another year of maybe, but probably not, and Stargell remembers he’s 32.

Key Questions

  • Which arms? WHICH arms? WHICH ARMS? This is the franchise’s defining problem, and it is not an evaluation failure: Homestead projects pitching as well as anyone, drafted Kershaw, and recognized Drabek and Colón the moment they produced. What it won’t do is settle a rotation structure in advance, so the pile gets re-auditioned every spring instead of sorted once. Seen from an angle, Francisco Liriano‘s season-ending injury is a gift — it opens a slot with no name attached to it. The challenge comes due later, when Liriano, Corey Kluber, and Tim Lincecum all come back to a staff that may, suddenly, be overly full — it would be a good problem to have.
  • Do Wagner and Lajoie hit — and can they hold a glove? Homestead spent a good, ready shortstop in Arky Vaughan to get Lajoie, and 2 years on neither he nor Wagner has delivered: OPS of 664 and 701, doubles power and nothing else, no walks, no average. Wagner is the ache — a genuine freak athlete the fans are pulling for. But. Patience is fraying.
  • Does Stargell keep beating the calendar? At 32 he’s old only by the standard of a 2-year-old league, and everyone else is busy shedding bats his age. Homestead is doing the opposite and betting Pops ages well. He earned that with 56 homers, a number he put up in a yard that isn’t supposed to give them away. But, you know, regression is a thing.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CGibson S · Lollar
1BEpstein D · Van Slyke B
2BLajoie F · Stennett
SSWagner D
3BJohnson C · Jacoby
LFReichardt B
CFMcCutchen D
RFClemente C · Van Slyke B · Wilson
DHStargell A
SPColón · Drabek C · Pierce D · Lee F · Adams · Brown · Liriano D (IL) · Kluber (IL) · Lincecum (IL)
RPLindblom A (CL) · Nen A · Jackson C · Rincón · Hensley

2 of those 5 NL All-Stars were Epstein and Reichardt, who between them have 3 selections and roughly no league-wide recognition — nobody scouted either of them, they simply produce, and in this city that is the highest compliment available. The other thing worth noticing is the bottom 2 rows: 9 names listed as starters, 3 of them hurt, and not one of them necessarily reliable.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Josh GibsonLF Goose Goslin
Batting Eye3B Judy JohnsonCF Max Carey
Contact2B Nap LajoieCF Lloyd Waner
Running SpeedRF Andy Van SlykeLF Starling Marte; SP Barney Pelty
Base StealingRF Andy Van Slyke; SS Honus WagnerCF Max Carey
IF Defense2B Rennie StennettSS Rey Sánchez
OF DefenseRF Andy Van SlykeCF Jimmy Ripple
StuffSP Tim LincecumRP Justin Grimm
ControlSP Babe AdamsRP Vern Law
VelocityRP Robb NenRP Carson Smith

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (10)20SPClayton Kershaw
2 (11)22SPTim Lincecum
3 (32)24RFPaul Waner
4 (52)242BLew Fonseca
5 (66)25CFJimmy Ripple
6 (93)20SPCatfish Hunter

Others: P John Candelaria, P David Cone, P Daniel Hudson, P Jeff Wallace, OF Lloyd Waner.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Logan Hensley (51).

The 6th-best system in the league and — for a club whose entire problem is pitching — mercifully full of it. A year ago this list produced the lineup’s newest everyday piece (Johnson, then the No. 3 prospect, now the do-everything IF) and the rotation’s best hope in Colón, who graduated by climbing 3 levels in a single season.

Clayton Kershaw is the headline and has moved again: the reigning organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year is now at Triple-A. Behind him, 20-year-old Catfish Hunter.

The depth is the quiet part. The un-ranked layer is arms too — John Candelaria, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Wallace, 20-year-old David Cone — and the one bat in the group is Lloyd Waner, who hit .336 at Triple-A in the same outfield as his brother Paul, ranked 32nd in baseball. More good problems to have.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJeff Kent, 38 (AAA)Judy Johnson, 19
HeightJohn Candelaria, 6’7″ (AAA)Eric McNair, 5’8″ (AAA)
OPSJosh Gibson, 1.312Rey Sánchez, .612 (A)
HRWillie Stargell, 56Darren Lewis, 2 (AA)
SBMax Carey, 64 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Josh Gibson, 12.1Nap Lajoie, −0.9
WPing Gardner, 15 (AA)
SVJosh Lindblom, 35
ERAClayton Kershaw, 2.21 (A)Dave Giusti, 6.55
WAR (pit)Gary Lucas, 4.3 (AA)Carlos Zambrano, −0.8

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

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