Baseball The Way It Never Was

Author: mknn Page 1 of 75

Year III Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.

First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.

There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.

So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.

The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.

So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.

One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.

Key Changes

In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)

Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts

Best Case for 2002

The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.

Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.

Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.

Worst Case for 2002

Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.

The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.

Key Questions

  • Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
  • Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
  • What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHartnett B · Wilkins
1BOrtiz B
2BLeMahieu C · Pedroia
SSBogaerts · Everett
3BBoggs C · Shaw
LFWilliams A · Benintendi
CFSmith C
RFBriggs A
DHRamírez A
SPOvermire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D
RPMiller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz

Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Ted WilliamsCF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeLF Ted WilliamsCF Roy Thomas
Contact3B Wade BoggsRF Bill Buckner
Running SpeedSS Herman LongSS Bud Harrelson
Base StealingLF Andrew BenintendiRF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley
IF DefenseSS Herman Long2B Jonathan Schoop
OF DefenseLF Andrew BenintendiCF Dain Clay
StuffRP Heath BellRP Justin Miller
ControlSP Jameson TaillonSP Carl Mays
VelocityRP Heath Bell; RP Andrew MillerRP Jensen Lewis

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (16)22LFJoe Kelley
2 (19)21SPJosh Beckett
3 (23)21LFCarl Yastrzemski
4 (39)24LFJoe Rudi
5 (70)221BJoe Cunningham
6 (81)21RFBill Buckner

Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.

6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.

The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTim Wakefield, 37Mickey McDermott, 17
HeightDerek Lowe, 6’6″Hack Wilson, 5’6″
OPSDavid Ortiz, 1.047Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA)
HRManny Ramírez, 46Dain Clay, 1 (A)
SBRoy Thomas, 38 (A)
WAR (bat)Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA)Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA)
WStubby Overmire, 13
SVAndrew Miller, 6
ERABill Husted, 2.92 (A)Red Ruffing, 6.90
WAR (pit)Stubby Overmire, 4.2David Bush, 0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first Angels preview said the pitching should be solid, especially up front behind Doc Gooden and Gerrit Cole.

And, for a year, it was correct. But since then, their paths — and the fortunes of the franchise — have diverged. Gooden made the AL All-Star team at 23, threw 194 innings and struck out 172, and is on the fringes of the truly dominant starters in the league. That’s where Cole was in 2000, but last season, Cole went 7-15 with a 6.36 ERA and gave up 53 home runs in 166 innings. That’s … not good.

The offense seems decent enough — 2 genuine young stars (Mike Trout and Kal Daniels combined for 79 home runs, 81 doubles, and 100 stolen bases) and now, perhaps 3 with the arrival of Freddie Freeman (333/422/677 over 30 games). There are some questions here — catching has always been an issue, and the MI has never truly settled (even less so since the organization traded away Bobby Grich).

All of that sounds OK, but Los Angeles has declared they are actively displeased with OK, and spent the winter making some extreme changes. The net of it all is their 2 best starters — Tom Seaver and Brett Anderson — are gone, replaced by José Rijo and prayer, the lineup now sports Dobie Moore at SS and Billy Herman at 2B (Moore via trade, Herman via the Rule V draft), Richie Hebner floating around the corner IF with the departure of Doug Rader, and Dwight Evans as the 4th OF, and the Angels accumulated some MiL talent and — most importantly — a 1st round pick.

The window is 2004 and nobody is pretending otherwise. What 2002 is for is finding out which of these arms is real.

2001 Revisited

We asked for playoff contention and got 74-88, 3rd in the Cum Posey Division, 29 games out.

The forecast split cleanly down the middle. Everything it wanted from the bats happened: Trout became the superstar the best case demanded, taking the organizational MVP and finishing 3rd for the Mel Trench Award; Carlos Delgado held off age at 32 and led the club with 44 homers.

Everything it wanted from the arms went the other way. The best case named 6 pitchers who might make good on immense potential — Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Sid Fernandez — (since released) and only Gooden did. Cole, the 2000 ace, was the collapse. Seaver was thoroughly meh and Pud Galvin — while certainly useful in a rubber-armed way — was effectively ordinary across 20 starts.

So the worst case, which predicted a hot mess on the mound and a Doug Rader reversion, was the more accurate take. Rader went from borderline MVP candidate to a pedestrian third baseman and was traded in March.

The other thing 2001 taught was about the bottom of the lineup. Ichiro Suzuki won a Gold Glove, played 140 games, and walked 7 times all year on his way to a .688 OPS and −1.2 WAR. Steve Garvey walked 8 times in 405 plate appearances. 1,400 PA, 15 walks. That’s no way to run a railroad.

Key Changes

In: Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (MEM); Richie Hebner (HOD); Billy Herman (FA); Dobie Moore (MEM); Jeff Pfeffer (KAN); José Rijo (KAN)

Out: Brett Anderson (HOD); Jay Bell (FA); Xander Bogaerts (MEM); Doug Rader (KAN); Tom Seaver (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: Dwight Evans; Jeurys Familia; Freddie Freeman; Billy Herman; Darren Holmes; Ross Reynolds

Best Case for 2002

Gooden finishes the climb to undisputed ace, and 2 of the arms behind him declare themselves. Rijo struck out 154 in Kansas City, Julio Teheran struck out 90 in 82 innings, Vic Willis is 23 and full of promise, and Ross Reynolds allowed exactly 1 home run (in the homer-happy context of the 2001 WBL) all season out of the pen. And the list of names above still waits: Finley, Ryan and Elmer Smith all open the year at Las Vegas.

And then the offense settles into sustained delivery: Freeman hits the way he did in September, Richie Hebner brings the 284/373/594 he posted for the House of David to third base, Moore settles shortstop at 21, and Gene Tenace — who walked 32 times in 155 plate appearances at Birmingham before the trade — gives the lineup an on-base bat.

The wins may not follow, and that’s allowed. 2002 is about answers.

Worst Case for 2002

Nobody separates. The pool stays a pool, Cole’s home-run rate is just who he is now. The bullpen is the near-term version of the same problem. Francisco Rodríguez was among the worst closers in the league at 6.87, Pfeffer arrives off a 6.16, Bill Doak off a 6.37. None of that changes, and Suzuki’s bat doesn’t move, Herman doesn’t hold second base, and the lineup around Trout and Daniels looks no better than it did in 2001.

Key Questions

  • Does what happens in Vegas matter? Oddly, many of the keys to LA’s future open the season at AAA in Las Vegas, where Mike Witt, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, John Lackey, Mike Krukow and Carlos Mármol all start the season. The org needs 2 or 3 of that group to separate, and it has deliberately arranged the year to find out — promote for clarity, not for reward.
  • Is the trust in the Doc warranted? The sharpest question of the Angels’ winter is why they sold Brett Anderson (11-6 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 189 innings and won the organizational Pitcher of the Year) and kept Gooden (11-11 with a 4.36, a 1.29 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 194). Those are essentially the same season, and the fanbase will be keeping close tabs on how Anderson fares for the House of David.
  • Can anybody in the bottom half reach base? Every bat the org brought in — Hebner, Tenace, Moore, even Eddie Joost — gets on base.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CTenace · Hassey
1BFreeman
2BHerman
SSMoore C · Joost
3BHebner A · Garvey
LFDaniels S
CFTrout S · Evans
RFSuzuki F
DHDelgado B
SPGooden C · Rijo C · Cole F · Galvin · Willis
RPRodríguez F · Reynolds B · Pfeffer F · Familia · Holmes · Doak

The bullpen is unsettled, most likely a committee approach until someone takes hold of the closer role.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Dwight Evans1B Jack Hannifin
Batting EyeSS Eddie JoostCF Jack Gleason
ContactRF Ichiro SuzukiLF Elmer Smith
Running SpeedRF Ichiro SuzukiCF Denard Span
Base StealingSP Pud GalvinCF Devon White; C Dave Pierson
IF Defense2B Billy Herman1B High Pockets Kelly
OF DefenseCF Dwight EvansCF Jim Landis
StuffRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan
ControlSP Roy Patterson; SP Pud GalvinSP Brian J Anderson
VelocityRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (46)192BRod Carew
2 (73)221BBabe Herman
3 (74)23LFSteve Henderson
4 (99)25CLCarlos Mármol

Others: P John Lackey, P Luke Walker, P Mike Witt, 3B Pedro Álvarez.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dwight Evans (26).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep and 8 of the 10 were pitchers, led by Elmer Smith at 19th in all of baseball. Smith is 26 and at Triple-A now, trying to figure out how to harness his genuine 2-way potential. Seaver graduated and was flipped to Memphis; Reynolds graduated into the bullpen and made the AL Rookie Team; Randy Tate, Marcus Semien, Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Nimmo all fell off the board.

What tops it now is a bat — 19-year-old Rod Carew, last year’s 1st-round pick, a second baseman who is unlikely to stay one. Babe Herman (no relation to Billy) and Steve Henderson supply corner power behind him, and Mármol is the lone arm.

The list understates the system, though, because the interesting part isn’t ranked. Las Vegas is carrying most of the pitching depth in the organization plus Pedro Álvarez, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, and Jack Hannifin, who hit 63 home runs there and turns 28 this year.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEddie Joost, 34Chris Archer, 19
HeightMike Witt, 6’7″Albie Pearson, 5’5″
OPSJack Hannifin, 1.078 (AAA)Denard Span, .514 (A)
HRJack Hannifin, 63 (AAA)Elmer Smith, 0
SBKal Daniels, 55
WAR (bat)Mike Trout, 5.7Ichiro Suzuki, −1.2
WDwight Gooden, 11
SVAl Jackson, 29 (A)
ERATom Morgan, 3.07 (A)Mike Krukow, 7.25 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Tom Morgan, 4.0 (A)Julio Teheran, −0.4

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Indianapolis ABC’s

State of the Franchise

team logo

Indianapolis sees a path to victory based on roster depth and flexibility. The challenge is they still need quality — a gap the organization has been addressing, bit by bit, and optimism runs high for the ABC’s in 2002.

The instinct is as old as the franchise, with the most discussed impact being Indianapolis’ commitment to being the only club in the WBL that runs a 6-man rotation by choice. And they’ve been solid at addressing their holes — the OF was a churn of bodies in 2000, less so in 2001, and heading into 2002, the holes in the roster have shrunk considerably. Given they were in the postseason last Fall a year ahead of schedule, the optimism may be warranted.

The core is exceptional: Oscar Charleston in center, Johnny Bench behind the plate, Joe Morgan at second, Luis Padrón on the mound — 21, 26, 22 and 22 years old. Of the 4, Padrón is both the highest risk (pitchers, don’t you know), and the most important: the offense hasn’t shown that it can carry the club on its own, and Padrón’s dependable ace-level start is needed. The ABC’s are working on it, though: 3B was mediocre last year (no insult intended for the workmanlike production of Chris Sabo), so they gave up the most precious commodity in the WBL — pitching talent in the shape of Tom Glavine, George Medich and Jack Billingham — to Portland for third baseman Buddy Bell (repeated WBL failure Robin Ventura was included as well, but that was as much a favor to him to get a fresh start as anything else; of course Indianapolis was his prior fresh start).

Billingham’s inclusion is potentially telling. Rob Dibble led a carnival ride of a bullpen (Dibble saved 24 games with a 4.87 ERA and 29 walks in 44 innings) with Billingham being the single steady arm. The move signals faith in the options in hand, but we’ll see.

2001 Revisited

The bar for 2001 was modest: playing .500 ball would be a nice step; doing so while nurturing some talent for the future would begin to raise hopes. Indianapolis went 80-83, missing the bar, but qualifying for a Wild Card series anyway — 2nd in the Marvin Miller Division, in October a year early.

Three things came together. Padrón, a curiosity in last year’s preview, went 23-3 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at 22 and took the Brock Rutherford Award. Charleston hit 337/381/619 at 21 with 38 homers and 46 steals, and led the WBL with 14 triples. Morgan hit 306/425/612 in 104 games and then was hurt in September, essentially dooming the playoff run.

Padrón’s emergence masked some serious questions: the ABC’s were banking on the continued development of Doc White and Willie Mitchell. Both regressed a bit: White posted a 6.55 ERA and Mitchell walked 55 in 118 innings.

Speaking of regression … Bench was arguably the best backstop in the WBL in 2000; in 2001, he still led the club with 46 homers, but hit only .238, dropping about 3-and-a-half WAR from 2000. A catcher producing a 2.3 WAR still has immense value, but there is a significant gap there, and it’s not clear which is more likely for his career.

Key Changes

In: Buddy Bell (POR); Jeff D Robinson (NYY)
Out: Jack Billingham (POR); Ed Charles (NYY); Robin Ventura (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Norm Charlton; Luke Gregerson; Billy McCool; Jeff D Robinson; Ed Swartwood; Steve Yeager

Best Case for 2002

Most of all, Padrón repeats. But, also, Bench bounces back, Morgan stays on the field for a full year, and Charleston at 22 is what he was at 21. Bell settles third base and the supporting cast holds its shape: George Foster‘s 38 homers, Joey Votto‘s 36 alongside a Gold Glove, Bob Bescher stealing 80 bases out of the bottom of the order.

And the ninth inning resolves itself in-house. Luke Gregerson, Norm Charlton or 19-year-old Billy McCool takes the job, Dibble’s walks come down, and a Wild Card team turns into a problem for the rest of the division.

Worst Case for 2002

The bullpen remains an unpredictable ordeal, Morgan’s health goes again, or Padrón’s 235 innings at 22 prove a serious error in judgement.

Barry Larkin doesn’t hit, shortstop goes back on the want list, and the lineup turns out to be homers and walks stapled to a lot of empty at-bats: 4 of the 9 regulars hit .246 or worse last year.

Key Questions

  • Where does the eighth inning come from? Behind Dibble are Pedro Strop, Gregerson, Charlton, McCool and Jeff D Robinson, a set of live arms with a combined big-league record of nearly nothing. Rob Murphy, the other half of last year’s back end, posted a 5.66 and opens this season at Triple-A.
  • Does the 6-man rotation survive? I mean, at some point this stops being a question and just the operating norm for Indianapolis. But it’s still a bit of a curiosity, and last year’s final form was really more akin to 4 starters taking irregular turns behind Padrón and Johnny Cueto. Cueto threw 212 innings of 4.62 ball; behind the 2 horses sit veteran Eppa Rixey (5.16 in the WBL, 3.88 at Triple-A), Mitchell, White, and 20-year-old Edward Nolan, who struck out 94 in 83 innings while walking 52.
  • Does the offense hold a second season? It raked, and it did it strangely: Bench at .238, Adam Dunn at .207 with 36 homers and 30 steals, Foster at .259 with 38. The power and the on-base are real, the batting averages are not. That means the margin for error is pretty slim, and any regression or dip could tank the offense entirely.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBench B · Yeager
1BVotto C
2BMorgan S
SSLarkin D · Menke
3BBell D · Sabo D
LFBescher D · Dunn D
CFCharleston S
RFFoster C · Swartwood · Mondesi
DHDunn D
SPPadrón S · Cueto C · Rixey · Nolan · White F · Mitchell · Luque
RPDibble D (CL) · Gregerson · Charlton · McCool · Robinson · Strop

One line in that grid is doing 2 jobs. Padrón made 33 starts on the mound in 2001 and also started 23 games at third base and 14 at second, taking 259 plate appearances — a genuine 2-way season.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Johnny BenchCF Dave Henderson
Batting Eye2B Joe Morgan3B Harlond Clift
ContactRF Oscar CharlestonLF Pete Rose
Running SpeedRF Raúl MondesiSS Tex McDonald; LF Gary Redus
Base StealingSS Barry LarkinLF Vince Coleman; CF Sam Mertes
IF DefenseSS Barry Larkin1B Sean Casey
OF DefenseRF Oscar CharlestonRF Nelson R Cruz
StuffRP Rob DibbleRP Rob Murphy
ControlSP Tommy BondRP Joe Moeller
VelocityRP Pedro StropRP Bobby Jenks

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (38)21LFDave Winfield
2 (48)20SPJim Maloney
3 (82)21SPPete Schourek
4 (84)241BSean Casey

Others: 3B Bob Aspromonte, SS Donie Bush, 3B Oliver Marcell, P Brad Radke.

That is a short list. A year ago it ran 10 deep and led with 2 teenage arms; Edward Nolan has graduated into the rotation and Foster into the outfield, while Ventura and Tom Glavine — 4th and 7th on that list — went to Portland in the Bell deal. Dave Winfield, the 15th pick of the 2001 draft but nearing readiness for the WBL level already, is the bat that replaced them at the top, and Jim Maloney is still the arm to watch, though at 20 he’s being asked to move from the bullpen into a rotation. Sean Casey is a big-league-ready first baseman with Votto in front of him.

What’s underneath is infield-shaped and a year or 2 out: Aspromonte and Marcell are the 3B pair, Bush the in-house answer at shortstop, Radke the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year. And for the sentimental, Pete Rose, is playing out the string at the Cincinnati affiliate, having gotten his WBL looks and not hit a lick in them. But, you know, don’t bet against him.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Swartwood, 35Ricky Gutiérrez, 18
HeightKameron Loe, 6’8″Donie Bush, 5’6″
OPSAvisaíl García, 1.036 (AAA)Matt Chapman, .448 (A)
HRJohnny Bench, 46Johnny Temple, 0 (AA)
SBBob Bescher, 80
WAR (bat)Oscar Charleston, 5.0Johnny Temple, −1.3 (AA)
WLuis Padrón, 23
SVRob Dibble, 24
ERABrad Radke, 3.12 (A)Doc White, 6.55
WAR (pit)Luis Padrón, 7.8Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Wandering House of David

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first House of David preview, 3 years ago, said there was a lot of talent here and the club was a year or 2 away. That is still, more or less, the pitch for the South Side travellers.

The bats are not (and never have been) the problem. Ernie Banks hit 59 home runs from shortstop last year, Ryne Sandberg hit 42 more at 33, and Anthony Rizzo claimed first base with a 287/391/594 season that was the most complete offensive year on the club. Behind them the org has bats stacked in the places bats are easiest to find — 4 first basemen on the roster, 2 catchers, and a Triple-A club that opens the season with Tony Conigliaro (7 homers in 24 WBL games last September), Jim Edmonds and Mark Grace (a 1.008 OPS) on it, because there is nowhere to put them.

The problem is the mound, and it has been for a year. Jack Taylor, who was an ace in 2000, gave back 192 innings of 5.90 ball. Bob Rush won a Gold Glove and posted a 5.28. Fergie Jenkins struck out 131 in 132 innings and finished with a 6.55. Nobody was good except a 22-year-old nobody expected (Kyle Peterson, more below).

So the season leans on Brett Anderson, 23 and acquired from Los Angeles in March for Richie Hebner — 189 innings, 172 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP for the Angels last year, and the closest thing to a front-line arm this org has had since Taylor. He doesn’t have to be an ace here, he just has to offer some stability to a beleaguered, revolving door of a rotation.

2001 Revisited

We asked for one thing: a repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum. The House of David went 78-84 and finished 4th, 7 games out, which is 5 games worse than the year before.

Ouch.

The odd part is how thoroughly both halves of the forecast missed. The best case had 4 clauses — repeat years from Taylor and Rush, a healthy Pete Browning, Elrod Hendricks not backsliding, the outfield sorting itself out — and 4 of 4 came up empty. Browning spent more time on the DL than on the field (again). Hendricks won a Gold Glove (the bleachers cheer!) and hit 195/291/416 (the bleachers fall silent, reluctant as they are to boo the hometown heroes). The outfield is no more settled today than it was then.

Meanwhile the worst case named Hebner, Ron Santo and Banks as the marginal men who might not step forward, and warned that Rizzo would regress. Banks put up a .968 OPS with 126 RBIs and won the organizational MVP. Hebner slashed 284/373/594 and pushed his way into more playing time all season. Rizzo broke out.

Where it did come true was the arm the preview never mentioned. Peterson went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts and took the organizational Pitcher of the Year — the one thing that went right on a staff where everything else went wrong.

And there was Sammy Sosa, traded away in a slump in 2000 and bought back a year later off a 144-plate-appearance hot streak at Memphis. He hit 195/240/478 with 41 homers, walked almost never, and was worth nearly 2 wins below replacement. 41 homeruns (the bleachers cheer!). A negative WAR (the bleachers shrug and reach for their beer). Our own review of the deal put it more concisely: this feels like being robbed.

Key Changes

In: Brett Anderson (LAA); Dellin Betances (FA)
Out: Richie Hebner (LAA); Billy Herman (FA); CC Sabathia (MCG)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

Anderson is what his strikeout rate says he is, Taylor remembers 2000, and Peterson holds. Behind them Rick Reuschel keeps being the most valuable arm on the staff — he led all House of David pitchers in WAR last year out of a swing role — and Jenkins, who owns the best raw stuff in the organization, finally delivers on it.

The lineup does what it already does, with health. Browning plays 140 games, George Gore and his .389 on-base get a full season instead of half of one, Santo takes the step a 22-year-old with 29 homers is entitled to, and one of the Triple-A bats forces the issue.

In a weak division, that’s enough. Or, could be enough.

Worst Case for 2002

Peterson’s rookie year came with 63 strikeouts in 107 innings, which is the profile that tends to regress. Anderson’s move doesn’t take. Taylor is what he was last year rather than what he was in 2000, and the rotation is a committee with nobody up front for a 2nd straight season.

And the roster’s thin construction hurts. Craig Reynolds is going to get a lot of PA, backing up both Sandberg and Banks, and he doesn’t look like a WBL bat. If Banks slides, Sandberg ages, and Sosa keeps being a muscled bundle of empty power, the bombs will keep landing in the street behind the bleachers, and the club will keep losing 8-5.

Key Questions

  • Where does the first arm come from? This staff has no settled answer to who starts opening day and why. Taylor has the pedigree and a 5.90; Peterson has the results and a strikeout rate that argues with them; Anderson has the peripherals and a 4.34 ERA; Jenkins has, by some distance, the best raw arm in the org and a track record that has never once matched it.
  • Does anybody here get on base? Banks reached at .314, Sosa at .240, Hendricks at .291, Santo at .311. Frank Chance ran 43 steals out of a .322 on-base built on a .214 average, which is its own kind of achievement. The 2 genuinely patient bats — Rizzo at .391 and Gore at .389 — are the least celebrated men in the lineup, which tells you something about a fanbase that came for the 450-foot shot and is not going to be talked out of it.
  • What happens if a middle infielder goes down? Sandberg at 33 and Banks at 26 are the 2 best players on the team and they play the 2 positions with nothing behind them. Heliodoro Hidalgo, the 7th-ranked prospect in baseball, is a year away at Triple-A. This is the one hole on the roster that cannot be covered from what’s already in the building.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHendricks D · Chance
1BRizzo B · Anson
2BSandberg A
SSBanks S · Reynolds
3BSanto C
LFStone C
CFGore C · Browning
RFSosa F
DHMcGwire · Beckwith
SPTaylor D · Anderson B · Peterson B · Reuschel D · Rush D · Jenkins · Clinton (IL)
RPSpooner B · Bauta D · Betances · Key · Shaw · Downs

John Beckwith is 20 and broke camp on a WBL roster having hit 4 home runs in a full Double-A season — the ceiling is enormous and the track record is a rumor. And Frank Chance is a catcher who stole 43 bases, which is not a sentence that gets written often; he is also the club’s answer against left-handed pitching and its leadoff man, at a position where the incumbent just won a Gold Glove.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B John BeckwithSP Jocko Flynn
Batting Eye1B Mark McGwireRF Olaf Henriksen
ContactCF Pete Browning1B Mark Grace
Running SpeedRF Sammy SosaRF Will Venable
Base StealingCF Pete BrowningSP George Zettlein; 2B Bingo DeMoss
IF Defense2B Ryne Sandberg3B Dave Malarcher; 2B Heliodoro Hidalgo
OF DefenseCF George Gore; RF Sammy SosaLF Sam Fuld
StuffRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood
ControlSP Jack W. TaylorRP Tom Dukes; SP George Zettlein
VelocityRP Dellin BetancesSP Kerry Wood

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (7)202BHeliodoro Hidalgo
2 (15)21SPJocko Flynn
3 (37)24CFDanny Green
4 (43)212BBingo DeMoss
5 (98)21LFCody Bellinger

Others: P Larry Dierker, 1B Mark Grace, P Jon Matlack, P Joe Nuxhall.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Cap Anson (12).

A year ago this list was 10 deep and led by Frank Grant, the 2nd-ranked prospect in baseball — a second baseman, traded to San Francisco in July for John Beckwith. Karl Spooner and Peterson graduated onto the staff, Anson onto the roster, and Dave Malarcher slid off the board entirely. What replaced them is, pointedly, middle infield: Hidalgo came from Kansas City in the Lee Smith deadline sale and ranks 7th in all of baseball, with Bingo DeMoss drafted to fill the need (it’s not clear where Hidalgo ends up defensively).

Underneath, the system is teenage arms and one very stuck bat. Jon Matlack is 19; Joe Nuxhall is 17 and Larry Dierker 19. And Mark Grace put up a 1.008 OPS at Triple-A at 28, but seems destined to a AAAA label or a change of scenery.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeSkeeter Barnes, 35Joe Nuxhall, 17
HeightDellin Betances, 6’7″Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPSMark Grace, 1.008 (AAA)Darren Daulton, .437 (A)
HRErnie Banks, 59José Uribe, 1 (AA)
SBFrank Chance, 43
WAR (bat)Ryne Sandberg, 3.7Sammy Sosa, −1.9
WKyle Peterson, 15
SVAd Gumbert, 10 (AA)
ERALarry Dierker, 1.78 (A)Larry Jackson, 6.61
WAR (pit)Kyle Peterson, 4.9Larry Jackson, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Houston Colt .45’s

State of the Franchise

team logo

Houston has the coldest front office in the league: a compliment.

The Colt .45’s were surprise contenders in 2001 (85-77, a first Marvin Miller Division title, and a playoff round won before Brooklyn ended their season). This team was built without sentiment. Surplus value is currency; names don’t matter, they’ve moved out Lance Berkman, HR Johnson, and Stubby Overmire in major deals, each one built around the notion that they brought more talent in than they surrendered.

The engine underneath is young. The everyday core runs 20 to 25 — Carlos Correa at short, Jeff Bagwell at first, Jim Wynn in center, 20-year-old Pete Hill in left — with a farm system stuffed with arms. The weak point over each of the past 2 seasons has been the bullpen, which has stumbled at every opportunity despite a wealth of good-looking arms — pointing to a challenge either in evaluation or a long string of poor fortune.

And all of it is watched by the most analytics-literate crowd in the league — a fanbase that reads value correctly and whose standing grievance is that nobody outside the 713 appreciates what they’re building.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the diagnosis was the offense — too weak across the board, especially in its ability to hit for power — and the prescription was for the established bats to break out: some combination of George Brett, Craig Biggio, and Andrés Galarraga.

They didn’t — those 3 in particular. Biggio hit 234/333/398. Brett scuffled to .227 in 357 plate appearances. Galarraga hit his way to a demotion.

Houston won the division anyway, which is the whole point of this franchise. Correa erupted for 318/399/556 and settled the shortstop question to the point Houston was willing to deal Johnson. Tony Gwynn flirted with .400 before tailing off a bit after the All-Star break. Toad Ramsey knuckleballed his way to 282 strikeouts and an 8.2 WAR, arguably the best pitching season anyone had. Clemens won 17. Wynn hit 37 homers and added 38 steals with a .359 OBP and, as usual, was noticed by almost nobody.

The power never really arrived — which is an ongoing concern, and largely responsible for Gorman Thomas making the Opening Day roster (Thomas had a strong showing at the end of last season, and the team is anticipating that Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt add to their longball numbers as well).

The one thing that went exactly as feared was the bullpen — it didn’t seem to matter who they used, they all got hammered. Sparky Lyle, the arm they sold Johnson to get, had a 3.86 ERA in New York and a 10.12 in Houston.

And yet: division title, Wild Card series win, and clear-eyed optimism for the future.

Key Changes

In: Trea Turner (CAG)
Out: Travis Jackson (CAG)

Opening Day Rookies: Vida Blue; Shanty Hogan; Roberto Osuna; Aramis Ramírez; Will Smith; Gorman Thomas; Trea Turner

Best Case for 2002

The young core steps forward instead of back. Correa’s breakout proves real, and behind Ramsey and Clemens the reclamation arms bounce the way the org keeps insisting they will — Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg were both 4-WAR aces once, and Oswalt’s spring (a 0.69 ERA, the command back) confirms Houston’s faith in them.

Hill and the kids keep climbing, and more power develops throughout the lineup. And the perennial if finally lands: 1 of the electric bullpen arms converts, and Houston has an 8th and 9th inning to go with everything else.

And, with all that, the team confirms that it’s built to be good for a long time.

Worst Case for 2002

The pen stays exactly what it has been. Correa’s 2001 turns out to have been the career year rather than the launching pad. Brett’s swing stays both pretty and empty. And perhaps most concerning, Oswalt and Strasburg stay frustratingly promising, but without impact. Ramsey proves to have been a fluke, leaving the rotation bereft of much beyond Clemens.

Key Questions

  • Will the bullpen ever convert? A maddening question, because it’s not a blind spot — the org sees it perfectly. The pen is stocked with electric arms that don’t get outs: Billy Wagner‘s stuff grades near the top of the league and he posted an 8.20 ERA. The relievers who actually work are the soft-tossers, Tug McGraw and Andrew Chafin. A large share of Houston’s churn is nothing more than repeated attempts to fix this one thing.
  • Which Correa is real? The franchise committed hard after the breakout, clearing the middle infield to hand him shortstop outright, and the spring keeps agreeing (a 1.105 OPS). But a .955 season from a 23-year-old could very well be a mirage.
  • How far does trusting young arms go? Further than anywhere else in the league, for sure: Elton Chamberlain threw 108 innings of 3.56 ball with 100 strikeouts at 19. The next test case is Leon Day, 20, whom the org holds as a future front-of-rotation starter on conviction alone — his 2001 was an 8.49 ERA in a WBL look and 8.34 at Triple-A.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CSmith · Hogan
1BBagwell B · Goldschmidt
2BBiggio D · Turner
SSCorrea A
3BBrett F · Ramírez
LFHill C
CFWynn B · O’Rourke B
RFGwynn B
DHGoldschmidt · Bagwell B
SPRamsey S · Clemens B · Chamberlain · Oswalt F · Strasburg D
RPLyle D (CL) · McGraw D · Chafin A · Wagner · Osuna

What the cells won’t tell you: Jim Wynn may be the best player on the roster.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Jim Wynn1B Harry Stovey
Batting Eye1B Paul Goldschmidt3B Morgan Ensberg
ContactRF Tony GwynnCF Kirby Puckett
Running Speed2B Trea TurnerCF Willy Taveras
Base StealingSP Elton Chamberlain; CF Jim O’RourkeSP Ed Morris
IF Defense3B George BrettSS Roy McMillan
OF DefenseRF Pete HillCF Willy Taveras
StuffRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge
ControlRP Roberto OsunaRP Dan Quisenberry; RP Tim Crews
VelocityRP Billy WagnerRP Brad Lidge

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (2)20SPEd Morris
2 (33)22SPCarlos Rodón
3 (40)19CFCésar Cedeño
4 (53)222BYoán Moncada
5 (62)26CFKirby Puckett
6 (69)202BTommy Harper
7 (87)22SPScott Bankhead
8 (89)20SPRick Wise

Others: P Leon Day, P Bill Harper, P Lance McCullers, P Bret Saberhagen.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Trea Turner (21), Will Smith (42).

The deepest, most pitching-rich system in the league. Recent draftee Ed Morris ranks 2nd in all of baseball. Carlos Rodón — pried out of New York in the HR Johnson sale — threw 137 innings at a 2.29 ERA with 121 strikeouts, and with Scott Bankhead and Rick Wise that makes 4 ranked starters. César Cedeño, Kirby Puckett and Tommy Harper feed the outfield behind them.

A year ago this list was topped by Chamberlain, who has since graduated into the rotation, and by catcher Will Smith, who is now the everyday backstop.

Then there’s the layer nobody ranks, which is also arms: Bret Saberhagen is 21 and put up a 3.03 at AA. Lance McCullers is 21 and saved 33 games in the minors, and there is, of course, Day.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeGorman Thomas, 32Mike Hedlund, 18
HeightJohn O’Donoghue, 6’6″Ed Morris, 5’7″
OPSKen Henderson, 1.125 (AA)Jorge Polanco, .480 (A)
HRGorman Thomas, 50 (AAA)Roy McMillan, 1 (AA)
SBJim Wynn, 38
WAR (bat)Ken Henderson, 5.4 (AA)Victor Reyes, −2.2 (A)
WRoger Clemens, 17
SVLance McCullers, 33 (AA)
ERACarlos Rodón, 2.18 (A)Leon Day, 6.79 (AA)
WAR (pit)Toad Ramsey, 8.2Dock Ellis, 0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Homestead Grays

State of the Franchise

team logo

2 straight losing seasons will get a club overlooked. But the Grays are used to it — Pittsburgh to the core. But 2001 was the year Homestead stopped being a project for the future and started making noise in the present, hanging around the playoff race into the stretch run. Nobody was more surprised than the hometown Yinzers.

Most of the credit goes to a 22-year-old catcher. Josh Gibson hit 400/494/818 with 49 homers and a 12.1 WAR — the first .400 season in WBL history, and a declaration of what is possible in the years to come.

This is a blue-collar club with one commandment, the field is the arbiter. That’s led to a fanbase that lives and dies on offense while holding its breath through every start. The lineup mashes. The pitching is a pile of arms eternally waiting to be sorted. Around Gibson sits a genuinely young core — Willie Stargell the ageless exception, but everyone else in their twenties. Pair that with the 6th-best farm system in the league, and there is something brewing here that demands notice.

2001 Revisited

We told you last spring to expect a step over .500 and, above all, some clarity — on the young infield, on the pile of arms, on who this team actually is. We got 1 of the 3, emphatically.

They finished 77-85, 3rd in the Effa Manley Division, under .500 for a 2nd straight year. So not so much on the first goal. But some questions were indeed answered: Gibson is real. He took the NL Mel Trench Award, a Silver Slugger, and the organizational MVP, at an age when most catchers are still riding buses in the low minors.

He wasn’t alone. Stargell, at 31, declined to acknowledge the calendar — 56 homers and a 1.001 OPS. Rick Reichardt kept grinding (284/355/586 with 39 of his own), Andy Van Slyke played 4 positions, stole 64 bases and led the club in both, and an 18-year-old named Judy Johnson posted a .408 on-base while bouncing around the infield. 5 Grays made the NL All-Star team.

The pitching was something else. 26 arms cycled through the staff. Only Bartolo Colón, who climbed from Double-A to the big club and put up a 2.36 ERA across 50 innings, and the wholly unforeseen Doug Drabek inspired any confidence at all. The deadline help was worse than no help: Juan Marichal posted an 11.40 ERA in a Grays uniform and David Price a 9.00, and neither had been pitching well when Homestead bought them. Which begs the question of why bring them in at all?

The one lasting dividend from that summer was Robb Nen, who turned a thin bullpen into something like a strength. Nen’s contributions weren’t enough to keep them in the Wild Card hunt — but they were enough to raise some hopes for 2002.

Key Changes

In: Logan Hensley (FA); Sherm Lollar (FA)
Out: Nip Winters (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Babe Adams; Logan Hensley; Brook Jacoby; Ricardo Rincón; Rennie Stennett

Best Case for 2002

Colón keeps it up over a full season, Drabek proves last year was no accident, and 1 of the arms buried in the churn does something. That’s all this team needs — not an ace, just a rotation that holds, because the offense will do the rest.

Squint and you can see Gibson being Gibson, Honus Wagner and/or Nap Lajoie finally hitting (and, in doing so, cementing the middle infield for years to come), Stargell aging like wine for 1 more year, and the less heralded bats — Reichardt, Mike Epstein — putting up the numbers nobody outside Pittsburgh believes can continue.

And if that isn’t enough, help may be a phone call away. The clock may start on the crown jewel of their system, SP Clayton Kershaw, sooner than anticipated. Currently the 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Kershaw spent last year striking out 119 in 134 innings of A-ball, and starts 2002 at AAA — skipping AA entirely.

If all of it lands, the Grays contend well ahead of schedule.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching remains a black box full of fear and pain, and the Grays panic, buying more “veteran arms” to help, whether or not they’re any good. Wagner and Lajoie’s long evaluation returns another year of maybe, but probably not, and Stargell remembers he’s 32.

Key Questions

  • Which arms? WHICH arms? WHICH ARMS? This is the franchise’s defining problem, and it is not an evaluation failure: Homestead projects pitching as well as anyone, drafted Kershaw, and recognized Drabek and Colón the moment they produced. What it won’t do is settle a rotation structure in advance, so the pile gets re-auditioned every spring instead of sorted once. Seen from an angle, Francisco Liriano‘s season-ending injury is a gift — it opens a slot with no name attached to it. The challenge comes due later, when Liriano, Corey Kluber, and Tim Lincecum all come back to a staff that may, suddenly, be overly full — it would be a good problem to have.
  • Do Wagner and Lajoie hit — and can they hold a glove? Homestead spent a good, ready shortstop in Arky Vaughan to get Lajoie, and 2 years on neither he nor Wagner has delivered: OPS of 664 and 701, doubles power and nothing else, no walks, no average. Wagner is the ache — a genuine freak athlete the fans are pulling for. But. Patience is fraying.
  • Does Stargell keep beating the calendar? At 32 he’s old only by the standard of a 2-year-old league, and everyone else is busy shedding bats his age. Homestead is doing the opposite and betting Pops ages well. He earned that with 56 homers, a number he put up in a yard that isn’t supposed to give them away. But, you know, regression is a thing.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CGibson S · Lollar
1BEpstein D · Van Slyke B
2BLajoie F · Stennett
SSWagner D
3BJohnson C · Jacoby
LFReichardt B
CFMcCutchen D
RFClemente C · Van Slyke B · Wilson
DHStargell A
SPColón · Drabek C · Pierce D · Lee F · Adams · Brown · Liriano D (IL) · Kluber (IL) · Lincecum (IL)
RPLindblom A (CL) · Nen A · Jackson C · Rincón · Hensley

2 of those 5 NL All-Stars were Epstein and Reichardt, who between them have 3 selections and roughly no league-wide recognition — nobody scouted either of them, they simply produce, and in this city that is the highest compliment available. The other thing worth noticing is the bottom 2 rows: 9 names listed as starters, 3 of them hurt, and not one of them necessarily reliable.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Josh GibsonLF Goose Goslin
Batting Eye3B Judy JohnsonCF Max Carey
Contact2B Nap LajoieCF Lloyd Waner
Running SpeedRF Andy Van SlykeLF Starling Marte; SP Barney Pelty
Base StealingRF Andy Van Slyke; SS Honus WagnerCF Max Carey
IF Defense2B Rennie StennettSS Rey Sánchez
OF DefenseRF Andy Van SlykeCF Jimmy Ripple
StuffSP Tim LincecumRP Justin Grimm
ControlSP Babe AdamsRP Vern Law
VelocityRP Robb NenRP Carson Smith

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (10)20SPClayton Kershaw
2 (11)22SPTim Lincecum
3 (32)24RFPaul Waner
4 (52)242BLew Fonseca
5 (66)25CFJimmy Ripple
6 (93)20SPCatfish Hunter

Others: P John Candelaria, P David Cone, P Daniel Hudson, P Jeff Wallace, OF Lloyd Waner.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Logan Hensley (51).

The 6th-best system in the league and — for a club whose entire problem is pitching — mercifully full of it. A year ago this list produced the lineup’s newest everyday piece (Johnson, then the No. 3 prospect, now the do-everything IF) and the rotation’s best hope in Colón, who graduated by climbing 3 levels in a single season.

Clayton Kershaw is the headline and has moved again: the reigning organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year is now at Triple-A. Behind him, 20-year-old Catfish Hunter.

The depth is the quiet part. The un-ranked layer is arms too — John Candelaria, Daniel Hudson, Jeff Wallace, 20-year-old David Cone — and the one bat in the group is Lloyd Waner, who hit .336 at Triple-A in the same outfield as his brother Paul, ranked 32nd in baseball. More good problems to have.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJeff Kent, 38 (AAA)Judy Johnson, 19
HeightJohn Candelaria, 6’7″ (AAA)Eric McNair, 5’8″ (AAA)
OPSJosh Gibson, 1.312Rey Sánchez, .612 (A)
HRWillie Stargell, 56Darren Lewis, 2 (AA)
SBMax Carey, 64 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Josh Gibson, 12.1Nap Lajoie, −0.9
WPing Gardner, 15 (AA)
SVJosh Lindblom, 35
ERAClayton Kershaw, 2.21 (A)Dave Giusti, 6.55
WAR (pit)Gary Lucas, 4.3 (AA)Carlos Zambrano, −0.8

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Detroit Wolverines

State of the Franchise

team logo

Ask Detroit and they’ll tell you, without blinking, that the Wolverines are the real class of the Bill James Division — and that nobody outside the Motor City gives them a lick of credit. This is a club that went to Game 7 of the 2000 Whirled Series, owns the best player alive, and has made the playoffs in both years of the league’s existence. Of course, it is also a club that has finished a game under .500 and has never won the division, because the same thing keeps happening: the offense is a fireworks show, the pitching a house fire.

The window here isn’t measured in years. It’s measured in Ty Cobb, 22 years old and the best player on the planet, and every decision bends toward getting the most out of the time they have with him. Hank Greenberg (25) and Al Kaline (22) fill out a young, ferocious core, and Hal Newhouser (22) is the live arm they hope comes good. Greenberg looks content in Cobb’s enormous shadow. Kaline — a .957-OPS force in his own right — is the one to watch, the second star who may, in time, want a little light of his own.

Detroit believes in the box score: home runs, RBI, wins and losses, and their front office will tell you to take your fancy-ass WAR and shove it. Unless, of course, you’re referring to Cobb’s 9.3 watermark last season. That they believe in. The creed has built a genuinely fearsome lineup and, year after year, the wrong pitching staff.

Two seasons in, 2002 is less a campaign than an audition: find a dependable rotation — hell, even half a dependable rotation — or watch the Cobb clock start forcing hard choices.

2001 Revisited

We sold you a very well-balanced team last spring, a championship contender, with only some fussing about an aging supporting cast and a shaky middle infield. Half right. The middle infield fixed itself — Charlie Gehringer took second base and a deadline trade landed Bobby Wallace at short — and the aging role players mostly held.

What we badly undersold was the imbalance. This was not a balanced team. It was a historic offense bolted to a broken staff.

The bats were absurd. Cobb hit 386/440/841 with 54 homers, 72 doubles, 140 RBI, 157 runs and 82 steals (!), taking the Mel Trench Award and the All Rounder Award. Greenberg mashed 59 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first. At 21, Kaline claimed an everyday outfield job and posted that .957 OPS. Oscar Gamble carried a .396 on-base with 35 bombs, Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey combined for 53 homers, and a 35-year-old rookie named Juan Beníquez slugged his way to an .888 OPS.

They even had someone out-hit Cobb: J. D. Martinez posted a 1.291 OPS (.010 over Cobb’s) on 321/389/902 with 19 homers. Only 41 G, but still, that’s impressive.

Then there was the pitching. 28 arms cycled through the staff. Exactly 2 of them — Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman — finished with an ERA under 5.00, and nobody posted a WHIP under 1.30. Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and a parade of others took the ball and got hammered. 81-82, 3rd place, and a first-round wild-card exit to San Francisco in which, of course, the arms got torched.

The lesson repeats until it’s learned: you cannot outscore a fire.

Key Changes

In:
Out: Logan Hensley (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Wander Franco

Best Case for 2002

One arm holds. Newhouser repeats his organizational Pitcher of the Year form, Verlander’s long evaluation finally resolves into a real number 2, or one of the kids — Pete Conway, the loud-spring wildcard Sid Fernandez, someone else — simply pitches.

That’s it. A lineup this good doesn’t need a great staff, only a competent one. Give Cobb, Greenberg, and Kaline a rotation that survives October, let Henneman anchor the deepest bullpen the club has ever had, and Detroit runs off with a soft division and, for once, might win a series instead of giving it away on the mound.

Worst Case for 2002

The rotation dies on schedule. Newhouser stays intermittent, Verlander stays combustible, the 35-year-old Connie Johnson breaks down, and a lineup that is louder on the scoreboard than in the WAR column can’t paper over a staff-wide 5.00. Detroit effectively treads water for a 2nd consecutive year, making that the true reality, and the championship challenge of 2000 a dim memory.

That outcome results in some churn as well. With Cobb’s prime too precious to waste and a surplus of bats the only currency on hand, the untouchable core stops being untouchable. Pieces move — and that, of course, is a crapshoot. Finally, there is Cobb himself: as the losing sets in, the proud, prickly identity curdles, and the fierce competitor in right field starts looking like something meaner.

Key Questions

  • Can they even recognize an ace? Detroit spends capital on pitching freely, buying Connie Johnson and Troy Percival last summer alone. It’s about evaluation. The Wolverines keep buying arms off a good month and watching them evaporate. Verlander is the test case: future rotation anchor, or future carpenter? Detroit has to answer that correctly, and its whole short history says it doesn’t do that so well.
  • Who plays the outfield and DH — and does Chili Davis finally get moved? With Cobb, Kaline, and Gamble spoken for and J. D. Martinez demanding at-bats, there’s a genuine logjam, and Chili Davis has already lost it — he opens the year on the bench, a big power name without a slot in the standard lineups. He’s the obvious piece to sell, Detroit keeps seeing his power track record, and keeps hesitating. Moving him means the front office finally might glance beyond the box score.
  • Who’s the shortstop — and the second baseman — in 2 years? Wallace is 35 and brittle, a 1-year bridge with no heir in the system; some will point to Wander Franco, who breaks camp at 20, but carries some conduct questions. Gehringer looks OK at 2B, but they’ve thought that before (Joe Wood, Tony Lazzeri, Damion Easley, etc, etc).

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CLombardi C · V. Martinez · Carrigan
1BGreenberg A · Beníquez C
2BGehringer C
SSWallace C · Franco
3BBailey C
LFGamble B
CFKaline B
RFCobb S · Davis C
DHJ. D. Martinez
SPNewhouser · Root F · Johnson · Verlander F · Conway · Fernandez · Marcum (IL)
RPHenneman D (CL) · Percival D · Bradford D · Napier C

The catching depth is real and quietly unusual — most teams don’t carry 3 backstops, and those that do tend not to anticipate solid contributions from all of them.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Hank GreenbergLF Wes Covington
Batting EyeLF Oscar GambleLF Jack Cust
ContactRF Ty CobbSS Mike Caruso
Running SpeedRF Ty CobbCF Shane Victorino; RP Charlie Hilsey
Base StealingRF Ty CobbSS Ray Chapman; 3B Joe Werrick
IF Defense1B Hank Greenberg2B Hobe Ferris
OF DefenseRF Ty CobbRF Chris Denorfia
StuffSP Hal NewhouserRP John Hiller
ControlSP Dick DonovanRP Bill Gallagher
VelocityRP Troy Percival; SP Justin VerlanderRP Felipe Vázquez; RP Joakim Soria

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (54)23SPJohn Healy
2 (85)23CFMoose McCormick
3 (90)23SPFrank Lary
4 (94)19CBill Freehan

Others: P George Mullin, P Milt Pappas, P Jack F Wilson, IF Ray Chapman, OF Riley Greene.

A year ago this list was topped by 2 names now anchoring the everyday lineup — Kaline, last spring’s No. 1 prospect, and Gehringer at No. 4. A third, Emil Yde was shipped out to Baltimore. What replaced them is, for once, the right shape: the system ranks 18th and thin, but half the ranked names are armsJohn Healy (A) and Frank Lary (AA). The published order is not the org’s own, though: the name Detroit rates highest is the one the list ranks lowest, 19-year-old catcher Bill Freehan, and it thinks a good deal more of recent draft pick Riley Greene than his absence would suggest.

There are some other interesting arms: George Mullin struck out 172 across Double-A and Triple-A last year at 24, Milt Pappas put up 124 innings of 4.21 ball, and Jack F Wilson punched out 105 in 108 innings at Triple-A. None of them is a front-of-rotation answer and the run prevention is ordinary across the board. But competence is the goal, and they just might clear that bar.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTony Lazzeri, 37 (AA)Billy Hoeft, 19 (AAA)
HeightChad Bradford, 6’5″Charlie Hilsey, 5’7″ (A)
OPSTy Cobb, 1.281Bill Freehan, .368 (A)
HRHank Greenberg, 59George Mullin, 1 (AA)
SBTy Cobb, 82
WAR (bat)Ty Cobb, 9.3Bill Freehan, −2.0 (A)
WCharlie Root, 11
SVFrank Lary, 29 (A)
ERAMickey Lolich, 2.95 (A)Justin Verlander, 6.48
WAR (pit)George Mullin, 4.0 (AA)Troy Percival, −1.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Cleveland Spiders

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Spiders are the best team in the league that nobody’s quite sure how to describe. 2 straight playoff trips, 2 Octobers that ended a round or 2 early — 86 wins and a quick exit in 2000, then 89-73 and a genuine run in 2001, a Wild Card series won over the increasingly hated Black Yankees before the Sea Lions swept them out of the AL Championship. No fatal flaw, no dominant edge. What Cleveland owns instead is optionality: a dozen paths to a win, room to absorb a bet that breaks wrong, and a roster deep enough that no single injury sinks the year (a thesis proven by the absence of controversial star Tris Speaker for all but 40 games of 2000).

The problem is that the same depth cuts the other way. Almost nobody on this roster is fully reliable, fully trusted. So, Do we believe in this guy? is a question Cleveland re-asks on every regular, every March. There is a cliché nature to some of it as well: like so many others, the Spiders are starved for pitching — either an ace to depend on or enough depth to not care. But Cleveland keeps making deals where they move around offensive players, not really addressing the clear bar between them and the elite teams.

Still, a perennial playoff team is nothing to sneeze at, and the talent is here to put it all together. Even if nobody is quite sure exactly how.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring worried about one position: who plays third base? It was a question of pure scarcity — nobody had stepped up. It was answered very loudly by Evan Longoria: 36 homers, 96 RBI, a Silver Slugger, an AL All-Star nod, and superlative glovework to boot.

Our other big fear was Ron Blomberg collapsing. He most certainly did not collapse, but the cracks deepened. Overall, you cannot complain about his season — 276/348/640 with 54 homers and 143 RBI. But his platoon splits are getting more troubling. Against RHP he was fantastic as ever (321/403/771); against LHP he hit 206/251/432, essentially the same as 2000, but his walks plummeted and his strikeouts took off. Around him the up-years arrived in force: Tris Speaker recovered from injury to slash 312/397/631, Lance Berkman launched 57 homers with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders, Larry Doby hit 41 while seizing claim to the fulltime job in right, and Ed Bailey posted a .920 OPS at C, at 36 to boot.

Still, it ended up par for the course: the arms were fine, but no more than that, and the team couldn’t cross the final hurdle. It’s not a bad place to be — most teams would be envious of the Spiders’ track record. But it’s also not a championship.

Key Changes

In: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Out: Joe Sewell (NYY); Joe Smith (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Jim H Manning; Chaz Roe

Best Case for 2002

Someone anchors the staff, with the most likely candidate being Bob Feller, who went 13-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts as a 21-year-old. And some still think Cy Young will be more than an innings eater. If 1 of those happens, Cleveland will do well, and if by some miracle both happen, perhaps that will get them over the hill.

The key players bounce back (Louis Santop‘s bat returns to his glove, Chuck Knoblauch looks like himself again), and the strong 2001 performances hold — Speaker, Berkman, Longoria, Doby, Arky Vaughan, Bailey. Finally, the Spiders shelled out some value for newly acquired Aroldis Chapman to solidify the bullpen. He has to deliver.

All of that comes together, and there could be celebrations by the lake come Fall.

Worst Case for 2002

It all breaks the other way, everything altogether all at once. Knoblauch’s 2001 wasn’t a dip but the start of a decline; Santop’s bat stays gone; Willie McCovey‘s 34-year-old legs give out, making his compelling late-career debut merely a mirage; Bailey acts his age; Blomberg collapses against more than just LHP; Berkman slides; and Speaker either gets hurt or just pisses everybody off too much. Feller’s elbow breaks, the rotation is again good-not-great, and in a division stacked with the Black Yankees, Tigers, Orioles, and a suddenly-well-armed Memphis, the Spiders plummet in the standings.

Key Questions

  • Does Feller become the ace — and if he doesn’t, will Cleveland finally buy one? Watching Memphis wheel and deal for not 1 but 2 front line starters has to sting a bit, and raise the question of whether Cleveland’s unwillingness to do the same is warranted conviction about their internal talent or front-office timidity when it comes to betting on pitching.
  • Bounce or decline — which is which? Cleveland’s core competency is reading talent on a roster where almost every regular swings 2-plus WAR a year in one direction or the other. It’s a tricky see-saw, and making the wrong call has repercussions. That’s part of what makes Knoblauch (a real sub-replacement collapse in 2001, discipline intact but the power gone) and Santop (a Gold Glove-caliber 21-year-old whose bat cratered) so important: if they fail, not only are there no clear replacements, but it means the org may be fundamentally misguided in how it judges the swings.
  • What does this lineup do against left-handed pitching? Cleveland bats left-handed almost top to bottom — Speaker, Blomberg, Doby, Bates, and McCovey all swing from the left side, into a park built for left-handed power — which is a wonderful thing to be against right-handers and a real potential weakness against lefties. John Ellis, Longoria, and Knoblauch are the right-handed bats of consequence, with Ken Keltner behind them (Berkman and Sammy Strang switch-hit, so they step out of the tilt entirely). It’s an accident of construction more than a plan, and it hasn’t bit the team so far, but it is something to watch.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBailey A · Santop F · Ellis F
1BBerkman A · Blomberg A · McCovey
2BKnoblauch D · Strang
SSVaughan A · Manning
3BLongoria A · Strang
LFBates C
CFSpeaker S · Doby B
RFDoby B · Berkman A
DHMcCovey · Blomberg A
SPSteen C · Young D · Feller D · Malone · Harder
RPAdams C (CL) · Reed C · Chapman F · Gearrin C · Roe

Speaker, the best player in the org at 24, is also its most difficult presence — the kind of star a proud city hasn’t decided how to love, a target of adoration while the club wins, but if the losses start to pile up, how long will his attitude towards his teammates be tolerated? At the other end of the scale sits McCovey — the 34-year-old who turned up and mashed a 1.107 OPS, a lovable late-bloomer a fanbase can wrap its arms around unreservedly.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Tris Speaker3B Bob Elliott
Batting Eye2B Sammy Strang3B Bob Elliott
ContactCF Tris Speaker2B Steve Sax; CF Kenny Lofton
Running SpeedSS Jim H ManningLF Pat Friel
Base Stealing2B Sammy Strang; LF Johnny BatesSS Bill Dahlen; CF Kenny Lofton
IF Defense3B Evan Longoria2B Sean Rodriguez
OF DefenseCF Tris SpeakerRF Alexis Rios
StuffRP Aroldis ChapmanSP Balor Moore
ControlSP Chuck PorterRP Edward Mujica
VelocityRP Chaz RoeRP Sergio Romo; RP Andrew Bailey

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (63)24RFCraig Wilson
2 (75)23CFLuis Olmo
3 (96)23CFRandy Winn

Others: IF Todd Helton, IF Johnny Hodapp, IF Aubrey Huff, P José Lima, P Balor Moore.

Three ranked prospects, all outfielders, none inside the top 60 — a system a year ago we called one of the worst in the league is, well, still pretty barren. Longoria, Berkman, Vaughan, and Bailey all arrived by spending prospects, and the thin system is what’s left over.

Last year’s top names have turned over completely — Joe Sewell, No. 4 a year ago, was shipped to New York this spring for Chapman. There is some hope in Helton, Hodapp, and Huff, but the position concentration is an issue. Balor Moore is the one arm worth watching — 101 innings of 3.56 ball with 86 strikeouts at Penn Yan, then a 12-inning cameo at Rochester he came through unscored upon.

Kenny Lofton, the org’s Minor League Player of the Year, is a WBL talent stuck at Triple-A.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Bailey, 36Abraham Almonte, 17
HeightRon Reed, 6’6″Ned Cuthbert, 5’6″
OPSTris Speaker, 1.028Matt Carpenter, .458 (A)
HRLance Berkman, 57Steve Sax, 1 (AA)
SBKenny Lofton, 85 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Tris Speaker, 6.7Louis Santop, −1.5
WCy Young, 15
SVTerry Adams, 23
ERABalor Moore, 3.18 (A)Yordano Ventura, 5.98
WAR (pit)Bill Steen, 4.9Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Brooklyn Royal Giants

State of the Franchise

team logo

Brooklyn won the whole thing, in a year where nobody saw them coming. But they’re Brooklyn — nobody ever does. The Royal Giants were a surprise division winner and a bigger surprise in October, running through the bracket and then handling the heavily favored San Francisco Sea Lions in the Whirled Series. From a .500 team in 2000 to a 99-63 champion.

And then … they spent the winter trading 2 of the key pieces of the championship run.

Brooklyn is New York’s third team, forever looked down on by the Yankees and the Gothams, and its edge seems to be first, to feel no sentiment, and, second, to care for the clubhouse. A ring didn’t change that. Within months of the parade the champions dealt Don Drysdale and John Briggs, the former for pouting when he was passed over to start the opening game of the Whirled Series and the latter because the Royal Giants believe they could get more value in return.

Brooklyn is convinced their offense will survive the passing of the home-run-friendly era, with Ron Cey at third, Jackie Robinson and Roy White as the heart and soul of the club, Mike Piazza behind the plate, and Smokey Joe Williams and Orel Hershiser at the front of the rotation.

The job now isn’t to defend a title. It’s to turn a surprise into a dynasty.

2001 Revisited

Our preview a year ago called this roster very middle of the road, penciled in a modest playoff hunt, and hung the whole thing on 2 names: Drysdale, the supposed lone dependable starter, and Briggs, the outfielder we swore would keep setting the world on fire.

Not wrong. Also not the story.

Cey slugged 47 homers with a 291/381/656 line and took the club MVP. Piazza finally arrived, mashing 48. Dan Brouthers settled first base with a .950 OPS. And the arms the org supposedly couldn’t trust carried it: Hershiser went 19-5, a converted Fernando Valenzuela 14-5, and Eric Gagné slammed the door 39 times. Williams was the best of them and had the least to show for it — a 7-WAR performance stuck with a 12-13 record.

Then the champions got to work dismantling the edges of their own title team. Drysdale — who threw a public fit about ceding the top of the rotation spot to Hershiser — went to Memphis with Red Ruffing (signed as a FA the previous week) in a package essentially for Mookie Betts, giving Brooklyn the marquee OF they had always lacked. Briggs, exactly the doubted-kid-makes-good story this fanbase adores, followed him to Memphis a few weeks later, bringing back a first-round pick and a pair of prospects.

Key Changes

In: Mookie Betts (MEM); Billy Bryan (MEM); Joe Smith (FA)
Out: John Briggs (MEM); Don Drysdale (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

The core doesn’t regress and the luck evens out. Cey, Piazza, Robinson, and Brouthers are all in their primes. Williams gets the record his WAR deserves, Hershiser is Hershiser, and Gagné closes. Behind the top 2, one of the other arms holds up well enough to carry them into October again. And, if someone does go down, the best farm system in baseball — it isn’t close — starts feeding the big club: for example, Ed Delahanty or Al Simmons arriving to turn the outfield into an embarrassment of riches. All of that, and Brooklyn goes back-to-back, and the surprise becomes a dynasty.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching falls short. Behind Williams and Hershiser, Valenzuela regresses, Dick Redding fails to develop, and the rest turn out to be merely average at best. The bullpen — excellent in 2001 — collapses, leaving no reliable bridge to Gagné. Pedro Guerrero keeps flailing, and the lineup that looked fearsome in a juiced year looks ordinary in a normal one. All of that, and the champion drifts back toward the .500 club it was in 2000, relegated to be a curious footnote of WBL history.

Oh yeah, and Drysdale wins the Brock Rutherford Award in the AL.

Key Questions

  • Can the rotation hold? Yeah, Brooklyn had excess pitching. But trading Drysdale is a massive bet on … well, who exactly? Valenzuela? Redding? Ralph Branca? Nap Rucker? You can’t say you would prefer any of them over Drysdale without giggling. The answer may be young lefty Sandy Koufax, but he’s likely a bullpen arm this season as he works on building up the endurance to handle a starter’s load.
  • Can a champion still be the underdog? What happens when Brooklyn wins, again? It sort of breaks reality, yes?
  • How much of Duke Snider is real? Center field is now his with Briggs’ departure. Snider led the club with 51 homers — and was worth 0.2 WAR doing it, a .259 average and a .295 on-base underneath the power. Brooklyn traded the productive outfielder in Briggs and kept the other one in center, betting his ceiling was higher. It’s not clear.
  • Where does the Whirled Series MVP play? Lost in Piazza’s October is the man who won the round that mattered most: Ray Dandridge, a 22-year-old infielder who caught fire in the Series and has no position to call his own. Cey owns third, Robinson owns second, and Vern Stephens sparkled since being brought in at SS. Dandridge takes his reps everywhere, but at some point will force some hard questions.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPiazza A · Bryan
1BBrouthers B
2BRobinson A
SSStephens D
3BCey S
LFWhite C
CFSnider C
RFBetts C
DHBecker C · Guerrero F
SPWilliams A · Hershiser B · Valenzuela A · Redding · Leonard · Dreifort
RPGagné S (CL) · Forster A · Koufax C · Knauss D · Hildenberger B (IL)

A core of genuine stars — Cey, Piazza, Robinson, Williams, Valenzuela — deep enough to win a title and young enough to win several.

The bullpen is where the grid hides something. Gagné is an S-tier closer and Terry Forster an A-tier setup man, but the bridge to them leans hard left, and Trevor Hildenberger — the one right-handed answer with a real track — opens the year on the IL. Until he’s back, it’s all lefties all the time for Brooklyn.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Mike Piazza1B Justin Smoak; 1B Jim Gentile
Batting Eye3B Ron Cey1B Justin Smoak
Contact1B Dan BrouthersRF Matty Alou
Running SpeedRF Mookie BettsSS Sonny Jackson
Base StealingRF Beals Becker; 1B Dan Brouthers2B Davey Lopes; RF Chicken Wolf
IF Defense2B Jackie RobinsonSS Tim Foli
OF DefenseRF Mookie BettsRF Chicken Wolf
StuffRP Eric GagnéSP Jim Bunning; SP Allen Russell
ControlSP Smokey Joe WilliamsSP Jordan Zimmermann
VelocityRP Eric GagnéRP Steve Chitren

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (1)212BEd Delahanty
2 (13)25RFChicken Wolf
3 (17)23SPWalker Buehler
4 (24)22SPJim Kaat
5 (25)21CFAl Simmons
6 (34)22SPEustace Newton
7 (47)23RFDon Mueller
8 (56)25SPDustin McGowan
9 (79)26RFGeorge Selkirk

Others: OF Brett Butler, OF Jay Johnstone, P Victor González, P Odalis Pérez.

The best farm system in baseball, and it isn’t close — 9 ranked names headed by Ed Delahanty, the No. 1 prospect in the sport, a 21-year-old second baseman with the small problem that Robinson already owns the position. He is taking reps in left field.

A year ago this list graduated Smokey Joe Williams and Valenzuela straight into a championship rotation, and produced Briggs at #5. What remains is an arms-and-outfielders wave — Al Simmons, Jim Kaat, Walker Buehler — pressing up from below.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeBurleigh Grimes, 36Odalis Pérez, 20
HeightLuke Farrell, 6’6″Candy Jim Taylor, 5’5″
OPSJim Gentile, 1.053 (AAA)Rollie Hemsley, 0.550 (A)
HRDuke Snider, 51Rollie Hemsley, 1 (A)
SBJackie Robinson, 53
WAR (bat)Ron Cey, 5.0Pedro Guerrero, -1.1
WOrel Hershiser, 19
SVEric Gagné, 39
ERAArt H Johnson, 3.20 (AA)Jordan Zimmermann, 5.80 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Smokey Joe Williams, 7.1Dazzy Vance, -0.1 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Birmingham Black Barons

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Black Barons say they want to pick a direction and hold it. The transaction log says otherwise. Two games out in July and they buy; one bad month and they tear it down. So far, that’s only produced a mushy pile of dissatisfaction, and the fans are beginning to grumble.

2001 was worse than 2000: 5th in the Marvin Miller Division and seemingly exiled to the borders of the standings. Hence the line the front office has now drawn: Birmingham, they say, is aiming for a championship between 2003 and 2005.

Though, you know, if they’re 4 games out in August …

The pressing problem is simple: nobody here gets outs. Birmingham took a wild card in 2000 on the strength of its arms. Last year Greg Maddux and Alejandro Peña gave up 109 home runs between them. One-effing-hundred-and-nine. The lineup put 5 men over 40 homers and the team finished last.

2001 Revisited

A year ago the read on Birmingham was blunt: they were strong on the mound, couldn’t score, and held a roster that didn’t look like a strong playoff contender. So they fixed the offense — emphatically. They shipped their own ace, Andy Pettitte, to New York for Albert Belle (a deal Birmingham still tells itself it won, never mind that Pettitte became a Bronx ace), imported Paul Konerko and Ryan Braun (for the NL All-Star arm of Jim Whitney), then Bobby Grich, and turned the box score into a fireworks show. Hank Aaron hit 51 home runs, Belle 46, Eddie Mathews 46, Jim Pagliaroni 45, Curtis Granderson 41.

And they finished dead last, 75-87, 10 out. The power was a mirage in an exploding offensive year: Belle’s 46 came with negative WAR, Aaron’s 51 with 16 walks all season, Mathews’ 46 on a .224 average, Granderson’s 41 on .206. Nobody got on base, and solo home runs are … nice?

Underneath it, the pitching everyone had worried about collapsed — Peña’s ace season evaporated, Maddux gave up 59 home runs all by himself, and the bullpen was a struggle all season (excepting the pleasant surprise of closer Harley Young). The club’s own review said it plainest: they scored way too few runs, despite hitting the ball out of the park with shocking regularity.

Key Changes

In: Bill Byrd (BAL); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BAL)
Out: Curt Flood (BAL)

Opening Day Rookies: Asdrúbal Cabrera; Melky Cabrera; Slim Embrey; Kerry Ligtenberg; Joe Torre

Best Case for 2002

They hold still. Maddux fronts a rotation for a full year, Bill Byrd takes the ball every 5th day behind him, Lefty Gomez does the same behind Byrd, and the staff ERA comes down without anyone new arriving. Asdrúbal Cabrera‘s glove holds at short, stilling a long-standing revolving door. Granderson’s platoon with Melky Cabrera covers center well enough, and the young starters — Rube Melton, Al Javery, John Malarkey — get their turns. That isn’t a juggernaut: the goal is a year that ends with more pitching than it started with, and clarity about how the offense adapts to a less HR-rich environment.

Worst Case for 2002

The same movie runs again. One Cabrera can’t play short, the other Cabrera flops in CF, and the drop in homers across the league leaves the Black Barons a team that doesn’t get on base and doesn’t do anything else, either. Then, one hot week in August makes the team sniff the playoffs, and another knee-jerk deal is done that changes the overall direction again.

Or, simply, Maddux implodes.

Key Questions

  • Will Birmingham keep an arm? Pettitte is the loud example, but Whitney is really no different. All-Star arms, traded for perceived value, but leaving a vacuum behind that is always filled with slightly lesser arms (no knock on Lefty Gomez and John Malarkey, but nobody would say they prefer them to Pettitte and Whitney).
  • Is the power real? Aaron, Konerko, Belle, Braun, Pagliaroni: 5 right-handed bats of consequence. But the league has changed, and Rickwood Field is projected to dampen right-handed power. This is really 2 questions: does the power maintain and, if so, do they keep it or move it on?
  • Who plays shortstop? The softest spot on the roster, with no clean internal answer (not new — last year’s semi-platoon of Herman Long and Troy Tulowitzki wasn’t very good in the end). Can Cabrera seize the position? If not, is Dick Groat the answer? Or do Long or Tulo force their way back into the conversation — a likely sign of failure if it happens.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPagliaroni A · Torre
1BKonerko B · Fairly
2BGrich B · A. Cabrera
SSA. Cabrera · Long D · Groat
3BMathews B
LFBraun B · Davis
CFGranderson D · M. Cabrera
RFAaron B
DHBelle C
SPMaddux D · Byrd · Gomez D · Melton · Malarkey · Javery
RPYoung B (CL) · Otsuka B · Ligtenberg · Peña D · Embrey · Chen

Look at all that gold … the lineup could be quite good.

For all the ruthlessness in the market, Birmingham is stubbornly loyal inside its own clubhouse — veterans get ridden a beat past their expiration, and Bruce Chen, the 37-year-old lefty being handed soft, low-leverage innings rather than a cold release, is the gentlest version of it.

The 9th inning is its own question. Juan Rincón saved 26 games in 2000, then came apart in 2001 — an 8.47 ERA across 34 innings — and the job now belongs to Young, who answered with a 2.29 ERA and 15 saves on results rather than stuff. 2003 shouldn’t bank on him until the command proves it holds.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power3B Eddie Mathews1B Nate Colbert
Batting Eye2B Bobby Grich2B Cupid Childs
ContactLF Tommy Davis2B Cupid Childs
Running SpeedSS Herman Long3B Ricardo Hernández
Base StealingSS Herman LongC Art Nichols; 2B Cupid Childs
IF DefenseSS Herman Long3B Mike Benjamin; 2B Jess Barbour
OF DefenseRF Hank AaronCF Lenny Dykstra
StuffRP Kerry LigtenbergRP Jason Grilli
ControlSP Al JaveryRP Carlos Diaz
VelocityRP Akinori OtsukaRP Steve Cishek

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (22)22CFLenny Dykstra
2 (28)21LFGary Matthews
3 (68)212BJess Barbour
4 (97)21SPBill James

Others: IF Cupid Childs, IF Nate Colbert, IF Ozzie Albies, IF Richie Sexson, OF Ron Gant.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Joe Torre (14), Kerry Ligtenberg (58).

A year ago this list was headed by Whitney, the arm flipped to Miami for Braun, and Torre, who has since graduated into the backup-catcher job. The new man at the top, Lenny Dykstra, is himself a trade acquisition — part of the Konerko haul from Chicago. What’s left is thin but useful: Dykstra and Gary Matthews in the outfield, Jess Barbour‘s utility glove, and Bill James, clinging to the back of the top hundred. Note what isn’t there. James is the only arm in the system worth ranking (maybe Cozy Dolan, but …), and the 5 unranked names behind him — Cupid Childs, Nate Colbert, Ozzie Albies, Richie Sexson, Ron Gant — are 5 more bats.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeBruce Chen, 37Frank Gilhooley, 18
HeightRichie Sexson, 6’8″Kid Baldwin, 5’6″
OPSPaul Konerko, .964George McBride, .585 (AA)
HRNate Colbert, 57 (AAA)Brock Davis, 1 (A)
SBCupid Childs, 37
WAR (bat)Gary Matthews, 5.1 (A)Pie Traynor, −1.0 (AAA)
WJohn Malarkey, 11
SVHarley Young, 17
ERABill James, 3.69 (A)Mike Leake, 6.77 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Rube Melton, 3.3 (AAA)Bill James, −0.9 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Page 1 of 75

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén