{Each week, we pick one club at random and give them a bit more depth–how they thought the season would go, how it’s going, and what the future might hold.}
Last October, Indianapolis seemed to arrive a year early. This May, the ABC’s are 13-30, last in the Marvin Miller Division, 12.5 games behind the House of David, and the owners of the worst record in the WBL.
As importantly, the ABC’s were … interesting. A 23-game-winning ace in Luis Padrón, a true franchise identity in Oscar Charleston, the immense promise of Joe Morgan, the steadiness of Johnny Bench, and a lot of pieces around them, combined with the most creative rotation in the league. Interesting.
Whelp. So much for interesting.
Oscar Charleston is having the season of a franchise player. Almost nobody around him is, and the table below says so.
| IND | WBL rank | 2001 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting average | .230 | 17th | 19th |
| On-base | .291 | 18th | 14th |
| Slugging | .378 | 17th | 15th |
| OPS | .669 | 18th | 13th |
| Runs scored | 165 | 18th | 12th |
| Homeruns | 49 | 15th | 14th |
| ERA | 4.56 | 16th | 6th |
| WHIP | 1.28 | 13th | 7th |
| Strikeouts per 9 | 9.74 | 6th | 10th |
| Walks per 9 | 2.73 | 6th | 14th |
| Homeruns per 9 | 1.90 | 19th | 4th |
#How We Thought it Would Go
The season preview found optimism running high: a Wild Card a year ahead of schedule, and a core of Charleston, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Luis Padrón, none of them older than 26. The spring’s big move spent pitching (Tom Glavine, George Medich and Jack Billingham) on third baseman Buddy Bell.
It asked three questions: where the eighth inning comes from, whether the 6-man rotation survives, and whether the offense can hold a second season. And its worst case warned that the lineup could turn out to be “homers and walks stapled to a lot of empty at-bats.”
#How It’s Going
165 runs scored and 220 allowed. By its runs, this is a 16-27 team, so Indianapolis has been a little unlucky.
Taking the questions in reverse.
Can the offense hold a second season? No. The worst case arrived.
Charleston (303/341/661) has 17 homeruns, and Morgan (268/420/441) walks once every five trips to the plate.
The issue is everyone else, who are hitting a combined 216/267/331. Adam Dunn (141/207/305) is striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances. George Foster (196/228/301) hit 38 homeruns last year and has … 3. Bench (205/229/308) led the club with 46 and has … 2. Bob Bescher (202/241/294) stole 80 bases in 2001, and has … 3. And the less said about Bell (176/226/241), the better.
Does the 6-man rotation survive? Yes, and it has turned up an arm. Doc White (2-3, 3.38) allowed 48 homeruns in 143 innings last year, with a 6.55 ERA. This year he has allowed 6 in 56 innings, and walked 8. White seems to have returned to his form of 2000.
The trouble is the long ball. As a staff, Indianapolis ranks 6th in strikeouts and 6th in walks, and 19th in homeruns allowed: 80 in 43 games. Padrón (1-3, 5.18), last year’s 23-game winner, has allowed 16 of them in 48.2 innings while striking out more batters than he did in 2001. Johnny Cueto (1-4, 5.07) has allowed 11. Especially in the less homer-happy environment of this year’s WBL, it’s a concern.
Where does the eighth inning come from? Maybe from the kids. 19-year-old Billy McCool (1-0, 2.65) has struck out 27 of the 67 batters he has faced, and Luke Gregerson (1-0, 1.93) has 3 holds and a save. Norm Charlton (1-2, 3.46) was striking out batters at nearly the same clip until he got hurt. Meanwhile Rob Dibble (0-1, 4.85) has 7 saves and is still giving up way too many walks.
The preview’s best case started with four things: Padrón repeats, Bench bounces back, Morgan stays on the field, and Charleston at 22 is what he was at 21. Two out of four, which seems fine, but nearly everything else has collapsed, hence the worst record in the league.
#The Crystal Ball
13-30, with 119 games to play. That’s 12 games out of the second wild card. It’s May, but Indianapolis will have to decide, sooner rather than later, what 2002 is for, for realsies. Two things push in opposite directions.
The first is the luck. The balls in play will start finding grass, Dunn’s average on them can’t stay under .200, and a staff that strikes batters out and doesn’t walk them shouldn’t keep giving up homeruns at this rate. There is a better team in here than 13-30.
The second is the build. The preview’s warning was about the lineup’s shape, not its luck, and Foster’s and Bell’s missing power is the shape. A better team than 13-30 is still a long way from 12 games better.
#Buy or Sell?
The next trade day is the All-Star break. Whichever way Indianapolis turns then, it holds what everyone wants in July: starting pitching (in some ways, a beneficial side effect of the 6-man rotation).
That’s also the danger. This is the club that sent David Price (2.56 ERA for Homestead) to Chicago for a bat that never hit, and spent Glavine, Medich and Billingham on Bell. Billingham has 8 saves for Portland.
If the ABC’s sell, the question is whether they finally sell arms for arms.
#Stories
Somebody Has to Play the Corners
Dunn’s strikeouts, Foster’s power and Bescher’s average leave the corners and DH open to whoever hits. Sean Casey (24) took the DH against right-handers when Ed Swartwood got hurt, after hitting 303/359/462 at AAA Cincinnati. Elliott Maddox (22), the 2001 All-Rookie outfielder Houston let go in January, was recalled this week to start against lefties. And Dave Winfield, the 2001 first-rounder, has just reached AAA. The more Dunn swings and misses, the more those at-bats have somewhere to go.
The Third Baseman They Paid For
Bell (176/226/241) was the spring’s one big move, and Chris Sabo (192/271/288) isn’t pushing him. Bell is still the best glove at the position the club has, which buys time. The question is how much.
The Other Horse
The preview called Padrón and Cueto the two horses. Cueto struck out 22% of the batters he faced last year, and is down to 17%. Behind him, Eppa Rixey (1-1, 1.35) has been the steadiest arm on the staff, and Willie Mitchell (1-3, 6.29), bumped from the 6-man for Virgil Trucks (0-3, 6.23), is striking out 35% of the batters he faces in relief. But currently–unless you really buy that Doc White is the answer–it’s a single horse in Padrón and 5 ongoing experiments.
#Down on the Farm
The bats worth watching are mostly at Cincinnati. The arms are thinner.
Dave Winfield (OF, 21, AAA), the org’s top prospect: 252/279/439 with 5 homeruns in 111 plate appearances at Nashville, then 6-for-14 since the promotion. The power is real. The walks (4%) aren’t there yet.
Edd Roush (OF, 30, AAA): 339/395/458 in 129 plate appearances, before he was hurt. He was Indianapolis’s center fielder for much of 2000.
Wally Post (RF, 26, AAA): 337/389/590 in 90 plate appearances at Nashville, then a promotion.
Donie Bush (SS, 22, AAA): 279/364/309 with 9 steals in 80 plate appearances. The shortstop glove behind Barry Larkin.
Pokey Reese (SS, 23, AAA): 270/312/419, with 3 triples.
Oliver Marcell (3B, 23, AA): 324/390/456 in 78 plate appearances, on a .444 average on balls in play.
Pete Rose (LF, 31, AAA): 312/382/375 in 55 plate appearances. Don’t bet against him. Geddit?
On the mound:
Brad Radke (P, 24, AAA), last year’s organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year: 4-6, 3.86 in 72.1 innings, with few strikeouts and fewer walks.
Pete Schourek (P, 22, AAA): 1.75 in 25.2 innings at Nashville, and 3.54 in 40.2 at Cincinnati with more walks than strikeouts.
Ray Culp (P, 24, AAA): a 5.25 ERA, but the best strikeout rate (22%) of anyone starting at Cincinnati.
Jim Maloney (P, 20, AA), still the arm to watch: moved from the bullpen into a rotation this year, and it shows. 7.02 in 41 innings, with 13% walks.
#One Number
.598. The OPS of every Indianapolis hitter not named Charleston or Morgan: 216/267/331 in 1,255 plate appearances, against a league OPS of .733. In 2000, this was two stars in search of a team. It is again.