{ The first of 20 team previews as we head into the new season! }
State of the Franchise
Two springs ago, very few saw Baltimore as a contender — and the Black Sox answered by running up the best record in the inaugural year of the WBL and winning the Whirled Series over Detroit in 7 games. Then came last year: 77-85, 4th in the Bill James Division, 13 games out and never really in contention. Through both the coronation and the collapse the org’s self-image hasn’t flinched — Baltimore believes they are merely unlucky. The assumption is that 2000 was real and 2001 was, well, not.
There’s a case, and it revolves around names you’ll be seeing for a decade: Frank Robinson is 22. Cal Ripken Jr is 23, Manny Machado 24, Bryce Harper 21. All but Ripken were part of the championship run.
2001 Revisited
We spent last spring at maximum confidence. “The best team in the league adds the best free agent,” we wrote of the Gavy Cravath signing — the biggest free-agent deal in WBL history — and declared that anything short of a second straight title would be a disappointment. To our modest credit, we named part of the way it could go wrong: the pitching reverts to mediocre, and Cravath and Dan McGann show their age.
The pitching, it reverted.
The arms were miserable — mostly because they were hurt. Ned Garvin, a Brock Rutherford Award contender before he went down, lost 10 months. Sean Marshall, unhittable in 2000, was out for close to a year. Justin Hampson came out of nowhere to make the AL All-Star team out of the bullpen and then went down for most of the second half. What was left included a game, but only slightly better than mediocre Dennis Martínez, and a revolving door for Jim Palmer, Mike Mussina, the since-departed Bill Byrd, and the since-acquired Gene Conley among others.
The offense did well enough: Robinson turned in another excellent season (308/394/674, a team-best 48 homers and 114 RBI). Cravath’s bat justified the checkbook — 44 homers, 111 RBI, Ripken emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order masher at shortstop: 32 homers, a Silver Slugger, runner-up for Rookie of the Year, and Harper — the youngest of the bunch — chipped in with a quiet (!) 41-homer season. And the gloves showed up — Gold Gloves for Paul Blair in center and Miller Huggins at second (Huggins is especially impressive, as he wasn’t anointed the full time 2B until well into the season).
Bottom line: the bats and the leather were championship-grade; the pitching was a rumor.
Key Changes
In: Curt Flood (BBB)
Out: Bill Byrd (BBB); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BBB)
Opening Day Rookies: Curt Flood; Jeff Montgomery; Emil Yde
Best Case for 2002
Health, mostly. Garvin comes back as the arm he was, one of Palmer or Martínez finally pitches to the level the advanced numbers indicate possible, and for once Baltimore fields something resembling a front of a rotation instead of a rehab ward. The young bats each take the half-step their ages promise; the Gold-Gloves up the middle keep turning balls in play into outs; and a club that was never really a 77-win team — just a team with a 77-win record — climbs back into the division race.
Worst Case for 2002
The curse holds.
The arms keep breaking, nobody announces themselves as an ace, either through performance or organizational choice, and both Cravath at 37 and McGann at 38 start acting their age. This last is a little less of a cliff — there is some talent behind them, but it has to step up (looking at you, Eddie Murray). 77 wins becomes 74, in the flattest, least-tradeable way possible.
Key Questions
- Is there a No. 1 starter — and would they trust one if there were? Baltimore has ace-grade arms — Garvin, especially, but the org can’t bring itself to commit: Palmer’s plain ERAs get him doubted every year even as the context says he’s a real front-of-rotation starter, and the winter’s reclamation flier, Warren Spahn (acquired under the assumption the proverbial change of scenery will unlock his talent, despite him being thoroughly disastrous in every opportunity over 2 years) opens the year at Triple-A. Mussina? Also AAA. You can’t run a rotation on flavor-of-the-month forever.
- Who covers the middle infield? Behind Ripken and Huggins there is Cliff Pennington and a prayer with Bobby Wallace being sent to Detroit at last season’s deadline. Baltimore has lost its 2 leading MI reserves — Asdrúbal Cabrera to Birmingham in trade and Brian Roberts to Miami via waivers. Ripken and Machado can cover each other, but it gets thin quick.
- Does the aging value convert? Cravath and McGann are challenging: the worst case is they don’t perform and, therefore, cannot be traded for value at the All-Star break. Cravath’s contract may prohibit that, regardless, but in the best of all worlds, Baltimore is able to move them on midseason, escaping both their cost and their age.
- What is center field, exactly? This is actually a mirror of the ace question. To analysts the answer is obvious: it’s Paul Blair, a two-time Gold Glover whose bat, while poor, isn’t horrific. But the Black Sox remain restless, with Earl Averill stashed at AAA and Curt Flood brought over from Birmingham.
Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Blefary B · Haller |
| 1B | McGann C · Murray |
| 2B | Huggins B |
| SS | Ripken Jr A · Pennington |
| 3B | Machado C |
| LF | Robinson S |
| CF | Blair D · Flood |
| RF | Harper B · Singleton D |
| DH | Cravath B |
| SP | Martínez D · Palmer D · Garvin · Cuellar · Tudor |
| RP | Groom C (CL) · Olson D · Hampson · Montgomery · Marshall |
A genuine S/A middle of the order in Robinson, Ripken, and Harper, a Gold-Glove spine down the center of the field, and some great supporting pieces. But the mound is clearly in need of significant improvement (health, of course, will help).
Behind the plate, Curt Blefary is under more pressure than it may appear — his glove is fading fast, but he stays behind the plate for his bat and through his reputation. Rumors are surfacing of him being spotted far too often in bars near the stadium after games — great for interacting with the fans, perhaps not so much for on-field performance.
Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | RF Gavy Cravath | RF Ron Northey |
| Batting Eye | LF Bryce Harper | 3B Frank Ward |
| Contact | CF Curt Flood | CF Gene Clines |
| Running Speed | SP Ned Garvin | 3B Frank Ward; RF Billy Lush |
| Base Stealing | SP Ned Garvin | LF Hub Collins; RF Jack McGeachey |
| IF Defense | SS Cal Ripken Jr | SS Mark Belanger |
| OF Defense | CF Paul Blair | RF Bill Jacobson |
| Stuff | RP Jeff Montgomery; RP Gregg Olson | RP Steve Kline |
| Control | RP Buddy Groom | SP Johnny Sain |
| Velocity | RP Gregg Olson | RP Rafael Betancourt; RP Frank Francisco |
Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (18) | 23 | RF | Ron Northey |
| 2 (35) | 23 | LF | Hub Collins |
Others: IF Bruce Bochte, P Steve Avery, IF Gunnar Henderson, IF Willie Montañez, IF Jose Altuve, P Bill Drake.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Eddie Murray (72), Emil Yde (78), Curt Flood (100).
A very different list than a year ago — because the system did its job. Cal Ripken Jr was the org’s No. 3 prospect a year ago, and Murray, Yde, and Flood all broke camp with the big club. Last year’s No. 1, second baseman Chino Smith, was inexplicably released, ending up with Chicago. What’s left is frankly underwhelming: Ron Northey (AAA), a corner bat, and Hub Collins (AAA) brought over from Detroit. Ninth-best system in the league at last count, mostly for the unranked talent, led by Henderson, Altuve, and Drake.
Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Dan McGann, 38 | Frank Ward, 17 |
| Height | Gene Conley, 6’8″ | Bobby Mathews, 5’5″ |
| OPS | Frank Robinson, 1.068 | George Gibson, 0.541 (A) |
| HR | Frank Robinson, 48 | Frank Ward, 0 (AA) |
| SB | Frank Ward, 50 (AA) | – |
| WAR (bat) | Frank Robinson, 4.3 | Bill Jacobson, -1.2 |
| W | Gio González, 13 (AAA) | – |
| SV | Frank Francisco, 22 (AA) | – |
| ERA | Joe Cascarella, 3.52 (AA) | Gene Conley, 7.42 |
| WAR (pit) | Mark Baldwin, 4.7 (AAA) | Johnny Sain, -0.2 |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.