Baseball The Way It Never Was

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Year II Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

Expectations

Playoff contention.

Best Case

Gerrit Cole and Pud Galvin pitch as they have and someone, or actually a few someone’s, from the group of Doc Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, and Sid Fernandez make good on their immense potential while Mike Trout develops into a true superstar, Carlos Delgado holds off age for another year, and 1st round pick Ichiro Suzuki comes good.

Worst Case

The pitching remains a hot mess, Doug Rader reverts to form, and Delgado, Don Buford, and George Wright all feel the effects of age.

Key Questions

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen?
  • Will anyone step up at C?

In addition to Suzuki, draft picks Babe Herman, John Lackey, and Bryan Harvey all have a shot at making the team.

Trade Bait

Nothing immediately, but the team could do a rebuild at some point and there are some that could be valuable.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CPierzynski
Torborg
1BDelgadoLee
2BGrichEllis
3BRaderGarvey
SSWright
LF/
RF
Buford
Daniels
Suzuki
CFTrout
SPColeAnderson
Galvin
GoodenSeaver
EndNathan
Rodríguez
Teheran
RPVentersDeSclafani
Lowry
Patterson

Smith
New Addition | Injured

That’s a lot in the unknown column, and with Rader and Delgado both likely to regress … it could be a long California summer.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Carlos Delgado1B Jack Hannifin
Batting Eye2B Bobby GrichOF Jack Gleason
ContactOF Ichiro SuzukiOF Elmer Valo
Running SpeedOF Ichiro SuzukiOF Billy Hamilton
Base StealingOF Mike TroutOF Billy Hamilton
IF Defense3B Doug Rader3B Pedro Álvarez
OF DefenseOF Ichiro SuzukiOF Ender Inciarte
StuffP Elmer SmithP Nolan Ryan
ControlSP Pud GalvinP Brian Anderson
VelocityRP Joe Nathan
RP Francisco Rodríguez
P Nolan Ryan

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (19)25P/OFElmer Smith
2 (85)22PJohn Lackey
3 (90)21PRandy Tate
4 (92)21IFMarcus Semien
5 (95)23PJoey Lucchesi
6 (141)23PTom Seaver
7 (154)22PEsteban Loaiza
8 (157)25PRoss Reynolds
9 (178)25PBrian Anderson
10 (187)22OFBrandon Nimmo
Others: RP Bryan Harvey.

The lack of top end talent is a serious issue, but the presence of quite a bit of decent pitching is a very significant advantage, especially when considering how underrated some of the prospects are–Mr. Seaver, we’re looking at you.

MostLeast
AgeP Jose Contreras, 38P Blue Moon Odom, 19
HeightP Chuck Finley, 6’6″
P John Lackey, 6’6″
P John O’Donoghue, 6’6″
OF Albie Pearson, 5’5″
OPSOF Ned Harris, 1.230(—)OF Jack Gleason, .545 (—)
HROF Ned Harris, 58 (—)OF Albie Pearson, 1 (—)
SBOF Mike Trout, 37 (WBL)Many with 0
WAROF Mike Trout, 6.0 (WBL)OF Jack Gleason, -2.0 (—)
WGerrit Cole, 16 (WBL)Carl Willis, 1 (—)
SVJoe Nathan, 22 (WBL)
ERAJose Contreras, 3.04 (—)Jesse Tannehill, 6.72 (—)
WARJose Contreras, 6.5 (—)Brian Anderson, -0.9 (AAA)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

Season Review: Los Angeles Angels

72 - 82, .467 pct.
4th in Bill James Division, 17 games behind.

Overall

Perhaps no team in the WBL has a larger gap between their obvious talent on the mound and their performance. Until the Angels figure that out, they are no better than a .500 team, if that, in spite of some useful pieces on offense.

What Went Right

Doug Rader had a career year, leading the WBL in RBIs up to the final few days of the season (his 134 finished 1 behind Babe Ruth, no shame in that), but perhaps the best news was the season-long development of CF Mike Trout, who only needs to add some power to move into the elite of the league.

Carlos Delgado–acquired when the Angels were still in the hunt–continued to mash the ball, and Bobby Grich was excellent at 2B all year long.

It’s unclear if the performances of Don Buford, John Stearns, or George Wright went right or wrong. They weren’t bad, but they also weren’t especially good.

For a team whose struggles were attributed to their pitching, the Angels had some surprising bright spots: the starting trio of Gerrit Cole, Pud Galvin, and Brett Anderson were excellent (when Anderson was healthy) and Jonny Venters and Francisco Rodríguez were excellent out of the bullpen. Cole, of course, was one of the better in the league for much of the year, finishing with 16 wins and Rodríguez will most likely challenge Joe Nathan for the closer role next season.

ALL STARS
P Gerrit Cole; 3B Doug Rader

What Went Wrong

There is so much talent on the mound here: the ball just explodes out of the hand for Doc Gooden, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, and Chuck Finley. But of them, only Gooden had anything close to a good season, and he finished 8-10 with an ERA over 5. It’s really that simple: if two of this group step up, they’re a borderline playoff team; if three of them step up, they’ll challenge for the division championship; if all four of them deliver, they could challenge for a championship.

Too much mediocrity from position players: C never got settled (John Stearns was decent, Ron Hassey poor), RF was OK, although Kal Daniels–for all his tools–is probably better suited for a platoon arrangement.

It’s unclear if the performances of Don Buford or George Wright went right or wrong. They weren’t bad, but they also weren’t especially good.

Transactions

March

None

June

OF Rusty Staub to Ottawa for IF Steve Garvey & OF Spud Johnson

Garvey played very well for LA, so call this one a push.

P Dave Bennett, OF Carlos Beltrán, C Jim Stephens & P Sean O'Sullivan to Ottawa for 1B Carlos Delgado

Remember, they were in contention. As such, it’s not a bad deal, although Los Angeles clearly did give up more talent.

C Brian Downing, IF Kurt Stillwell, P Dave LaRoche to San Francisco for OF Wally Moon, OF Dwayne Murphy, 4th Round Pick {John Lackey} & 6th Round Pick {Omar Olivares}

Feels like a win overall.

July

None

Looking Forward

SP

If things develop as expected, the Angels are loaded, looking at a rotation of Gerrit Cole, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Doc Gooden and Pud Galvin. And those are only the arms under long term deals.

RP

Lots of talent here, both at the WBL (Joe Nathan, Jonny Venters, Francisco Rodríguez) and in the minors, led by Carlos Mármol, Darren Holmes, Larry Anderson, and some others.

C

An area of need, especially if John Stearns cannot step up.

1B

Needs some talent long term, but Carlos Delgado has it for a little while. The Wally’s–Joyner and Pipp–have shown some promise as well. Steve Garvey may end up here, but it’s not clear if he’ll hit enough to warrant an everyday slot.

2B

Bobby Grich for the foreseeable.

3B

Doug Rader for now, with very little behind.

SS

George Wright is elite defensively, but offers little else. Andrelton Simmons should take over at some point.

LF

Don Buford was good enough, but they could take an upgrade here.

CF

Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout.

RF

If Kal Daniels continues to struggle against lefties, a platoon may be in order.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

Los Angeles needs star power. With the 8th pick in the first round, they get a player who should step right into the RF spot: Ichiro Suzuki. The Angels should spend the rest of the draft adding offensive talent–a luxury few franchises have, but the sheer glut of pitching potential in their system sort of necessitates it.

In the 2nd round, they took Babe Herman, who is probably a year away, but look like a masher; and in round 3, Marcus Semien, who is a few years away, giving him time to figure out where on the infield he might settle.

Los Angeles has back-to-back picks in the 4th round and looked to add some pitching in franchise pick John Lackey and using their final franchise exception on Estaban Loiza.

Rounds 5-8

The Angels’ 5th round pick, OF Brandon Nimmo, has aspirations to carry Mike Trout’s luggage.

They followed that with P Omar Olivares and Bryan Harvey with back-to-back selections in the 6th round and continued the focus on pitching with Tom Morgan in round 7 and Al Jackson in round 8.

Rounds 9-12

P Tom Hausman; 1B Casey Kotchman; IF Tony Womack; and P Randy Tate.

The Angels’ 10th round pick, Casey Kotchman, refused Los Angeles’ final offer, preferring to go back into next year’s draft.

TWIWBL 52.1: End of Season Review – What Went Right

The first of a 2-parter reflecting on Year I of the WBL.

Overall Statistical Model

Somewhat arbitrarily, I used 2000 as the base year for Year I. MLB produced its 2nd highest ever OPS that season, slashing a cumulative 270/345/437. Year I of the WBL ended at 268/339/433.

That’s pretty darn close.

Year I was actually an almost perfect match for 2006’s 269/337/432.

So, yeah, offense heavy, but not more than asked for.

All Around Player Performance

Tomorrow I’ll publish what didn’t go so well, and the biggest thing is a couple specific outlier performances. But, so much about the league felt right. Babe Ruth did Babe Ruth things, sure.

But the all-around players were also dominant in a great way: Eddie Collins may have been the best player in the league, Willie Mays‘ impact was irresistible. Players who had “career years” (Tom Herr, Doug Rader, even Eric Davis) did so well within the overall shape of their MLB careers.

Pitching was weird as always. But the list of those at the front of the “best starter in the league” ranking was a great list: Walter Johnson, Gerrit Cole, Jack Taylor, Andy Pettitte, Christy Mathewson? Sure. Pettitte and Taylor overperformed, but pitching–and especially of course W/L records–are weird. Ron Guidry had a great year according to the deep stats, but struggled in the traditional evaluations.

And lots of pitchers struggled, which, again, feels about right.

NeL Players

The all-time greats may feel a little under-represented, but that’s largely because of the career perspective of the WBL. Cristóbal Torriente, Pete Hill, Oscar Charleston, and Louis Santop were each everyday starters by the end of the season despite being teenagers. Martín Dihigo and John Beckwith struggled a bit, but again, teenagers.

Here’s an overview of how the NeL entries did.

NameTeamAgePosNotes
John BeckwithSFS18IF237/306/384. Sent to AAA midseason. Showed WBL power, but struggled at AAA. Likely another year at AAA.
Ray BrownHOM23P7-7, 5.80. Struggled in WBL, but in the running for Year 2 rotation spot.
Bill ByrdBAL26P14-3, 3.33. An all-star and a front of rotation starter for the best team in the league.
Oscar CharlestonIND19OF277/313/438. Not many HR, but good power, great defense. A solid start.
Ray DandridgeBRK21IF256/323/359. Sparkplug for Brooklyn when healthy. A solid enough offensive start.
Leon DayHOU18P1-1, 4.91. Day was promising across 14 games (2 starts) before struggling with injuries and then being knocked out in June for the rest of the season. Expected to compete for swing role in Year 2.
Martín DihigoMCG18U195/235/319; 0-2, 12.15. Overwhelmed as a hitter, purely mop up on the mound. But perhaps the greatest defensive talent the league has ever seen, and adds so much roster flexibility that, if the OPS can just get over .600, a valuable piece.
Bunny DownsHOD25U216/256/351. 40 PAs of mediocre utility. Defensive flexibility helps.
Josh GibsonHOM20C289/386/448. An all star behind the plate at 20? Yes, please. Power will come, a great start.
Frank GrantHOD21IF200/263/200. A rough first 100 PA for the promising IF. AAA likely next year.
Pete HillHOU17OF287/323/440. A starter for about half the year. What a start for a 17 year old.
HR JohnsonHOU24IF252/310/357. A bit disappointing, honestly. Defensive flexibility is nice, but the Colt 45’s need more from him offensively.
Dick LundySFS21IF268/284/377. Total sparkplug when healthy. good defense, 30 SB. Should be a starter next year.
Carlos MoránMCG21OF221/369/262. Great defense and an OBP machine. Certainly in the mix to start in Year 2.
José MéndezMCG22P4-6, 4.56. Good secondary numbers and, by the end of the year, looked like a front of the rotation starter.
Joséito MuñozPOR19P5-5, 2.57. Fantastic when healthy. But now out until a few months into next year.
Alejandro OmsMCG20OF259/313/410. Solid. more power and better zone control would help. But, solid.
Eustaquio PedrosoMCG22OF/P278/316/444; 9-6, 4.81. Someone who performs around league average both in the field and on the mound has value.
Dick ReddingBRK20P0-5, 4.57. Not good enough to stay with Brooklyn all year, but not horrible. Showed enough at AAA at the plate (106 OPS+) to warrant a look as a two-way player.
Louis SantopCLE19C293/322/447. Doesn’t get on base enough, but he’s a C with solid D and still a teen. Future star.
Sam StreeterBBB24P7-6, 4.91. Very solid, pushed to bullpen at end of year.
Cristóbal TorrienteCAG17OF289/347/392. Excellent defense, solid–if low on power–offense. Likely to be a mainstay for the American Giants for a long time.
Smoky Joe WilliamsBRK20P4-1, 3.47. Sent down to spend most of the year at AAA, returned very strong down the stretch.

There are, of course, some others in the minor leagues–A. Rube Foster (9-2, 4.60 ERA across 5 minor league teams), Cool Papa Bell (252/304/339 with 39 SB, mostly at AA), some others.

Continuity

I started the first season of the WBL something like 40/45 years ago. The third season was completed over 20 years ago. This season–the first on OOTP, the fourth overall–was completed in about 3 years.

Across all of that–from handheld Strat-O-Matic play through SOM on a half-dozen different computers (beginning on a Commodore 64, natch) through 3 versions of OOTP–it feels similar. Storylines emerge that I enjoy, frustrations emerge at players underperforming, personalities of teams and franchises begin to appear.

I love all that.

I have no idea what to do with the first 3 years–the teams were totally different, some players occur in this version as well, many do not. If I can find an easy way to incorporate that history, I may do so, but I don’t see it yet. Shock of shocks, Babe Ruth would be the career HR leader …

TWIWBL 51.6: The Awards – Brock Rutherford Award

Given to the best pitcher in the league each year, here are your contenders for the Brock Rutherford Award this season.

This includes every starter with at least 15 wins, as well as the top 5 in WAR, ERA, FIP (a measurement that tries to eliminate the impact of fielding on pitching stats), and SIERA (a measurement that tries to eliminate factors out of control of the pitcher).

NameTmRecordBB/9K/9WHIPWARFIPSIERA
Bert BlylevenPOR11-11, 4.302.47.61.272.74.433.81
Bill ByrdBAL14-3, 3.332.34.51.203.24.254.87
Gerrit ColeLAA16-9, 4.163.36.11.344.04.144.64
Lefty GroveSFS14-7, 3.464.89.21.343.94.083.96
Ron GuidryNYY8-12, 4.352.79.01.254.23.853.36
Walter JohnsonPOR14-5, 3.503.97.01.194.73.754.41
Frank KnaussBRK12-6, 3.413.47.21.213.34.064.19
Pat MaloneCLE17-8, 3.842.87.71.275.03.643.82
Christy MathewsonNYG17-8, 3.504.27.71.404.44.024.29
Tricky NicholsCAG15-9, 4.143.66.31.383.04.464.65
Stubby OvermireHOU/
MEM
10-7, 3.432.83.91.363.14.035.28
Alejandro PeñaBBB12-9, 3.792.56.31.315.13.524.34
Andy PettitteKCM/
BBB
15-5, 3.202.35.11.184.63.774.65
Eddie PlankSFS12-7, 3.873.47.11.414.53.474.32
Charlie RootSFS/
DET
10-6, 3.532.46.91.353.34.263.93
Red RuffingNYY14-9, 4.053.48.11.353.34.263.92
Jack TaylorHOD15-9, 3.422.35.81.142.94.464.42
Cy YoungCLE11-10, 4.361.74.21.235.03.724.88

OK, I get it. That’s a lot of numbers. And, SIERA always complicates things, since it is precisely designed to show who is pitching far better than the other numbers would show.

Christy Mathewson and Pat Malone were the league’s only 17 game winners. Andy Pettitte won the ERA crown and carried Birmingham into the playoffs after being acquired from Kansas City. Charlie Root and Jack Taylor (followed by Pettitte) allowed the fewest baserunners.

So let’s call this Pettitte, Mathewson, Malone from the perspective of the traditional stats.

FIP likes Malone (3rd in the league, but Pettitte isn’t far behind). If you then turn to SIERA, Malone is 3rd and Root 5th in the metric, with Matty a bit further behind.

I think evaluating pitchers remains the most elusive of quarry, and at such times, the known terrain is the safest. Call it Pettitte, Malone, Matty, with Andy Pettitte‘s clear contribution to a playoff drive sealing the inaugural Brock Rutherford Award for the lefty.

TWIWBL 47.0: End Of Season Review

September 14

Just a quick look through the performances at the end of the season. Look for both award posts and more in-depth reviews of the season over the offseason. BUT FIRST … are you ready for some playoffs?

Awards

Portland‘s Jim Fregosi won the final Player of the Week Award, hitting .588 down the final week of the season.

Performance

Batters

Babe Ruth finished the season on fire, taking over the league lead in RBIs and walks and maintaining his edge in … almost everything else. At the end of the season, it looks like he should indeed walk away with the MVP.

Ron Blomberg (CLE). 336/412/649. 44 HR, 109 R.
Eddie Collins (CAG). 315/409/513. 6.5 WAR.
Ty Cobb (DET). 352/391/557. 192 H.
Mike Fiore (CAG). 240/405/390. 109 BB.
Hank Greenberg (DET). 317/374/595. 45 2B.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 279/400/371. 99 SB.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). 317/424/589.
Willie Mays (NYG). 322/384/516. 186 H.
Stan Musial (KAN). 329/395/577. 49 2B.
Alejandro Oms (MCG). 259/313/410. 13 3B.
Doug Rader (LAA). 330/391/529. 134 RBI.
Tim Raines (OTT). 282/362/414. 92 SB.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 312/427/663. 48 HR, 136 RBI, 127 R, 110 BB, 8.1 WAR.
Louis Santop (CLE). 293/322/447. 14 3B.

Pitchers

Starters

For context, included all 15 game winners, as well as the league leaders in BA against, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), HR/9, and BB/9.

Bill Byrd (BAL). 14-3, 3.33.
Gerrit Cole (LAA). 16-9, 4.16.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 14-7, 3.46. 207 K.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-12, 4.35. 188 K.
Walter Johnson (POR). 14-5, 3.50. .211 Avg.
Pat Malone (CLE). 17-8, 3.84. 5.0 WAR.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 17-8, 3.50. 211 IP.
Tricky Nichols (CAG). 15-9, 4.14.
Roy Oswalt (HOU). 14-8, 3.70. 207 IP.
Alejandro Peña (BBB). 12-9, 3.79. 5.1 WAR, 3.52 FIP.
Andy Pettitte (KAN/BBB). 15-5, 3.20.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 12-7, 3.87. 1 Sv, 3.47 FIP, 0.5 HR/9.
Charlie Root (SFS/DET). 10-6, 3.53. 1.06 WHIP, .239 BABIP.
Jack Taylor (HOD). 15-9, 3.42. 1.14 WHIP.
Cy Young (CLE). 11-10, 4.36. 1.7 BB/IP.

Relievers

35 IP for rate stats.

Terry Adams (CLE). 2-6, 2.65. 38 Sv. 0.0 HR/9.
Rod Beck (SFS). 2-7, 5.23. 33 Sv.
Mike Henneman (DET). 2-7, 4.60. 38 Sv.
Sean Marshall (BAL). 5-0, 1.79. 1 Sv, 8 H. 0.98 WHIP, .182 Avg.
AJ Minter (CAG). 1-0, 2.61. 30 Sv. 2.88 FIP.
Buddy Napier (DET). 2-1, 2.81. 2 Sv, 9 H. 0.94 WHIP, .198 BABIP.
Don Newcombe (MCG/CAG). 4-15, 6.29. 2 H. 1.3 BB/9.
Mike Norris (NYG). 4-4, 1.47. 8 Sv, 15 H.
Ron Reed (PHI/CLE). 1-6, 4.61. 3 Sv, 17 H.
Ron Robinson (SFS). 7-5, 3.86. 1 Sv, 18 H.
Carson Smith (NYG). 3-0, 2.05. 1 Sv, 10 H. 0.0 HR/9.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 2-0, 2.13. 29 Sv, 1 H. 0.0 HR/9, 2.58 FIP.

Final Series Results

Series Sweeps

Detroit Wolverines over Wandering House of David
Memphis Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels

Taking 3 out of 4

New York Gothams over Portland Sea Dogs
Baltimore Black Sox over Kansas City Monarchs
Chicago American Giants over Brooklyn Royal Giants
Houston Colt 45’s over Ottawa Mounties
San Francisco Sea Lions over Indianapolis ABC’s
Miami Cuban Giants over Homestead Grays
Birmingham Black Barons over Philadelphia Stars

Series Splits

New York Black Yankees @ Cleveland Spiders

TWIWBL 46.1: Series XXXVIII Notes – September 10th (Day 2 of 4)

#The Battle for the Final Spot

Birmingham lowered their magic number to 1 with an 8-4 victory over Philadelphia. Cupid Childs broke out of a slump with 3 hits including his 5th homerun of the year and Sam Streeter improved to 7-6 with a strong 7 plus innings. The only bad news for the Black Barons concerned young Nate Colbert, who was forced to leave the game with a high ankle sprain that will keep him off the playoff roster as well.

PHI 4 (Carlton 8-13) @ BBB 8 (Streeter 7-6)
HRs: PHI – Davis 19, Judge 7; BBB – Nieman (16), Childs (5).
Box Score

Mike Schmidt had 3 hits and Babe Ruth hit his 47th longball of the season as the Black Yankees did what they could, beating Cleveland 7-2 to keep their hopes alive. Waite Hoyt picked up his 11th win of the year.

These two results mean that any combination of wins by Birmingham or losses by the Black Yankees will end New York’s season, but for now, hope prevails.

NYY 7 (Hoyt 11-6) @ CLE 2 (Gastright 1-1)
HRs: NYY – Ruth (47); CLE – Trosky (2).
Box Score

#Playoff Seeding

Boog Powell had 5 hits and drove in 4 runs and Lou Brock added 4 hits as Kansas City gave up a 7 run lead, but prevailed in 11 innings over Baltimore. The loss for the Black Sox kept Chicago’s hopes of overtaking them for the lead in the Cum Posey Division alive. The American Giants responded by riding a strong start from Ben Sheets to a 3-1 win over Brooklyn. Joe Jackson hit his 30th homerun of the year to give Chicago the lead, and to pull them within 2 games of Baltimore.

Portland and the New York Gothams combined for 21 runs and 33 hits as the Sea Dogs used 9 runs from the 6th inning on to stage a come from behind 12-9 win. For Portland, Joe Mauer and Buddy Bell had 3 hits each and–who else–Gavvy Cravath delivered a key homerun to give them the lead. For the Gothams, Will Clark had 4 hits and drove in 3 and George Van Haltren, Benny Kauff, and Buster Posey added 3 hits each in the losing effort.

#Other Games

Lefty Grove ran out of steam, missing out on a shutout in his final game of the season. Still, his 8 innings was more than good enough, earning him the victory in the 8-1 triumph over Indianapolis. Grove improved to 14-7 on the year, and finished with a league-leading 207 strikeouts. The Sea Lions’ Rickey Henderson had 3 hits (2 of which were triples, tying the league record) and Jimmie Foxx added 3 hits and 3 RBI’s.

Harry Stovey went deep twice, doubling his total for the year and Roy Oswalt was strong in his final start of the year, finishing at 14-8 as the Colt 45’s thrashed Ottawa, 10-2. Pete Hill had 4 hits and Jim Wynn 3 in the blowout win.

Bill Doak and 3 relievers combined to shutout Los Angeles over 12 innings in a 1-0 victory for Memphis over the Angels. Doak and Tim Wakefield allowed 8 hits over 10 plus innings, and Lance Broadway and Jonathan Papelbon finished it out, with Broadway picking up his 1st WBL career victory and Papelbon his 18th save. Gerrit Cole pitched excellently, allowing 5 hits and whiffing 9 over 8 innings, but finishes the year at 16-9. Sammy Sosa delivered the only RBI of the game in the top of the 12th.

TWIWBL 45.0: Series XXXVII Notes

September 9th

Pennant Race

And then there were two …

Only one division has been won–the surprise Cleveland Spiders win the Effa Manley Division–but only one postseason spot remains undecided.

That comes down to the Cinderella Birmingham Black Barons and the disappointing New York Black Yankees. Birmingham’s magic number is 3–meaning any combination of 3 wins by the Black Barons or losses by the Black Yankees will seal their improbable run to the playoffs.

The exact order of finish is up in the air, but here are your nine playoff contenders (numbers in bold & italics are that team’s magic number):

TeamPctDivisionNotes
Baltimore Black Sox.587Cum PoseyClinched playoff; 2
Detroit Wolverines.567Bill JamesClinched playoff; 4
Chicago American Giants.567Cum PoseyClinched playoff
Cleveland Spiders.560Effa ManleyClinched division
New York Gothams.560Bill JamesClinched playoff
Portland Sea Dogs.553Marvin MillerClinched playoff; 3
Wandering House of David.553Bill James1 to clinch playoff
Birmingham Black Barons.540Marvin Miller3 to clinch playoff
New York Black Yankees.527Effa Manley

The Black Yankees visit Cleveland to end the season. The Spiders will be focused on getting their roster ready for the post season, so that may open the door for New York. But Birmingham hosts the worst team in the WBL, the Philadelphia Stars, so it seems like that would make them the safe bet to progress.

Portland visits the New York Gothams and the House of David hosts Detroit in other playoff preview matchups.

Performance

Four more games, so these are very close to final numbers.

Batters

With the Black Yankees possibly missing the playoffs, the noise for Ron Blomberg‘s MVP campaign just gets louder.

Remember when it looked like Pete Browning would swoop in from injury and win the batting crown? Yeah, Ty Cobb had something to say about that.

Omitted below are Josh Gibson of the Homestead Grays and Alejandro Oms of the Miami Cuban Giants (tied for 2nd in the league in triples with 12) and Tim Raines of the Ottawa Mounties (2nd in steals with 91).

Ron Blomberg (CLE). 337/412/648. 43 HR, 107 R.
Ty Cobb (DET). 349/389/558. 187 H.
Eddie Collins (CAG). 312/408/512. 6.4 WAR.
Mike Fiore (CAG). 240/405/390. 109 BB.
Hank Greenberg (DET). 317/374/591. 45 2B.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 269/394/357. 95 SB.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 330/412/579. 107 R.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). 319/426/591.
Willie Mays (NYG). 326/389/523. 183 H.
Stan Musial (KCM). 328/393/574. 49 2B.
Doug Rader (LAA). 336/395/539. 183 H, 133 RBI.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 312/428/658. 46 HR, 132 RBI, 122 R, 106 BB, 7.8 WAR.
Louis Santop (CLE). 299/329/457. 14 3B.

Some milestones possible in the final series:

Musial needs one double to reach 50; Elrod Hendricks (HOD) needs two homeruns to join Ruth and Blomberg in the 40+ club; Rick Reichardt and Mike Trout (Homestead and the Los Angeles Angels, respectively) sit at 98 RBIs; six players have between 96 and 99 runs scored; and Frank Thomas (CAG) needs one walk to reach triple digits.

Pitchers

Starters

It’s unclear if Cleveland’s Pat Malone or the Gothams’ Christy Mathewson will get another start in the regular season: if they do, they’ll be aiming to become the WBL’s first 18 game winners.

Gerrit Cole (LAA). 16-9, 4.33.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 13-7, 3.55. 199 K.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-12, 4.35. 188 K.
Pat Malone (CLE). 17-8, 3.84. 5.0 WAR.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 17-8, 3.51. 205 IP.
Stubby Overmire (HOU/MEM). 9-7, 3.31.
Alejandro Peña (BBB). 12-9, 3.86. 3.52 FIP.
Andy Pettitte (KCM/BBB). 15-5, 3.20.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 12-7, 3.87. 3.47 FIP.
Charlie Root (SFS/DET). 10-6, 3.53. 1.06 WHIP.
Jack Taylor (HOD). 15-9, 3.38. 1.14 WHIP.
Cy Young (CLE). 11-10, 4.36. 204 IP, 5.0 WAR.

Overmire needs a few more innings to finish the year qualifying for the ERA title. Cleveland’s Stan Coveleski and Detroit’s Hal Newhouser are the other starters with ERAs under 4.00 who could qualify with 1 more start, although in Newhouser’s case, it would take a complete game. Detroit’s Gene Conley (3.28) and Cleveland’s Bill Steen (a potentially league-leading 2.93) will miss the cutoff, although each are likely to see starts in the postseason.

Relievers

Check out the trio from the New York Gothams bullpen.

Terry Adams (CLE). 2-6, 2.76. 36 Sv, 1 H.
Clay Carroll (IND). 2-6, 4.14. 3 Sv, 11 H. 64 G.
Mike Henneman (DET). 2-7, 4.70. 37 Sv.
Sean Marshall (BAL). 5-0, 1.79. 2 Sv, 8 H, 0.98 WHIP.
AJ Minter (CAG). 1-0, 2.72. 29 Sv. 2.90 FIP.
Buddy Napier (DET). 101, 2.75. 2 Sv, 8 H, 0.97 WHIP.
Mike Norris (NYG). 4-4, 1.52. 8 Sv, 15 H.
Ron Reed (PHI/CLE). 0-6, 4.56. 3 Sv, 17 H. 64 G.
Carson Smith (NYG). 2-0, 1.77. 1 Sv, 10 H.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 1-0, 1.96. 29 Sv, 1 H. 2.63 FIP.

Streaks

Not a lot going on here, other than Mike Trout‘s 33 game streak of reaching base.

Series XXXVII Results

Series XXVII Sweeps

Wandering House of David over Houston Colt 45’s
Indianapolis ABC’s over Philadelphia

Taking 3 out of 4 in Series XXXVII

Detroit over Birmingham
Memphis over Brooklyn
Portland over Chicago

Series Splits in Series XXXVII

Los Angeles @ New York Black Yankees
New York Gothams @ Kansas City Monarchs
Baltimore @ Homestead
Miami @ Ottawa Mounties
Cleveland @ San Francisco Sea Lions

Series XXXVII Featured Matchup: Los Angeles Angels @ New York Black Yankees

Series preview here.

#Game 1: Gerrit Cole @ Waite Hoyt

Lou Gehrig‘s 25th homerun of the year and an RBI single from Thurman Munson put the Black Yankees on top 2-0, but Waite Hoyt was unable to hold it, surrendering 2 runs in the top of the 3rd to tie the game.

Hoyt was chased by singles from Mike Trout and Doug Rader to leadoff the 5th, with AJ Burnett coming in for New York. Burnett escaped further damage but Gerrit Cole gave up the lead in the bottom of the inning as Mickey Mantle led off the frame with his 26th homer.

Burnett walked Trout with the bases loaded to tie the game again, and then gave up a 2 run single to Rader. Dave Righetti was brought on, but Carlos Delgado delivered an RBI single, and Elmer Valo a run-scoring double and when the smoke cleared, the Angels were up, 7-3.

They would add 5 more in the following inning, and the score was only respectable due to Babe Ruth hitting his 45th homer of the year in the 9th inning.

Trout and Rader had 4 hits each, and Delgado added 3. The 3 of them drove in 11 runs, with Rader maintaining his overall lead in the RBI race over Ruth, 131 to 130.

LAA 12 (Cole 16-9) @ NYY 7 (Burnett 5-3)
HRs: LAA – Delgado (11); Gehrig (25), Mantle (26), Ruth (45).
Box Score

With Cleveland losing, this was a lost opportunity for New York, who end the day still 3 games out of the final wild card spot and 5 behind the Spiders for the division lead.

#Game 2: Pud Galvin @ Jack Scott

Mike Trout‘s 21st homerun of the year put the Angels up 2-0 in the top of the first. Two more homeruns (Bobby Grich‘s 12th and Doug Rader‘s 18th) doubled the lead in the 3rd to 4-0. RBI singles from Thurman Munson and Don Mattingly cut it back to 4-2 in the bottom of the inning.

Both pitchers were laboring and New York’s Jack Scott was relieved by Bryan Hickerson with 1 out in the top of the 6th while Pud Galvin gave way to Chuck Finley in the bottom of the frame.

Harry Howell led off the 7th with a pinch hit triple, but was gunned down at the plate on a nice throw from Albert Belle.

Rader doubled in another run–his 133rd RBI of the year–in the top of the 8th, extending Los Angeles’ lead to 5-2. That run loomed large after the bottom of the 8th, when Mattingly hit his 27th homerun of the year after a leadoff double from Munson (his 40th of the year) made it 5-4.

The Angels brought in their closer in the bottom of the 9th, but Joe Nathan was greeted by a leadoff homerun from Mickey Mantle. That sent us to extra innings.

Kal Daniels took Aroldis Chapman deep in the top of the 12th after Hi Myers led off with a walk. And that was it: Francisco Rodríguez held on in the bottom of the 12th as the Angels put another dent in the Black Yankees’ post-season hopes.

Daniels finished with 3 hits for the Angels.

LAA 7 (Rodríguez 4-3; Nathan 9 B Sv; Finley 6 H; Seaver 2 H) @ NYY 5 (Chapman 1-1) [12 Innings]
HRs: LAA – Trout (21), Grich (12), Rader (18), Daniels (14); NYY – Mattingly (27), Mantle (27).
Box Score

#Game 3: Jason Vargas @ Ron Guidry

The Black Yankees enter game 3 of the series 3.5 games back of the final wild card slot with 6 games left in their season. Not only do they need to, essentially, win out, they need help.

But all they can control is trying to win out.

Consecutive doubles by Thurman Munson and Doug DeCinces gave New York the lead in the 2nd, and a 2-run homerun from Hardy Richardson (the first of his career) extend it to 4-0- in the 4th. Ron Guidry was dominant early, but began to struggle in the 5th walking in a run and giving up another on a sacrifice fly, but a 2-run shot from Don Mattingly essentially ended the contest, giving New York a 6-2 edge.

As always, New York’s bullpen is a question mark, but AJ Burnett, Dick Tidrow, and Rheal Cormier were solid in relief of Guidry, and the Black Yankees remain alive.

LAA 2 (Vargas 1-3) @ NYY 7 (Guidry 8-12)
HRs: LAA – none; NYY – Richardson (1), Mattingly (28).
Box Score

#Game 4: Brett Anderson @ Red Ruffing

The Black Yankees bypass Jamie Moyer‘s spot in the rotation, sending out a rested Red Ruffing to face Los Angeles’ Brett Anderson.

Don Buford greeted Ruffing with a dinger to lead off the game, but Thurman Munson–who else for New York?–tied it up with a single in the 2nd, scoring Lou Gehrig. Derek Jeter would bring Munson home, giving the Black Yankees a 2-1 edge.

Both pitchers settled, and the score stayed that way until the bottom of the 5th, when Babe Ruth launched one over 450 feet for his 46th of the year and a 4-1 lead for New York.

Ruffing had to leave injured in the 7th, but he was likely coming out anyway after giving up a leadoff single to Mike Trout. The Angels scored one off Goose Gossage on a double by Don Buford, and then loaded the bases with one out against Aroldis Chapman. Steve Garvey lofted a deep fly to center to make it a 1-run game, but Hi Myers grounded out to end it.

LAA 3 (Anderson 7-8) @ NYY 4 (Ruffing 14-9; Chapman 13 Sv; Righetti 1 H; Gossage 7 H)
HRs: LAA – Buford (18); NYY – Ruth (46).
Box Score

Series XXXVII Preview: Los Angeles Angels @ New York Black Yankees

The Los Angeles Angels have only featured in 3 series (Series V, VIII, XXIII), but they head into the penultimate series of the season with a chance to play spoiler. We’ve seen the New York Black Yankees more often (Series XI, XV, XIX, XXIX), but after early season dominance, and despite an offense that is probably the best in the league, they are fighting for their playoff life.

#Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have some interesting pieces. For a while, Gerrit Cole (15-9, 4.30) was in the argument for the best starter in the league, and he still is an unquestioned ace. 3B Doug Rader (333/395/535, a league leading 128 RBI) will finish in the top 4 or 5 in the MVP race, and CF Mike Trout (315/383/492) is coming into his own. Trout leads the team in HR with 20 (Carlos Delgado has 21, but only 10 with LA), and while 6 other players are in double figures, there is an overall lack of power in the lineup. But they hit for average and they get on base, and especially with Delgado, Kal Daniels, and Elmer Valo, they are very strong against righties.

As the season winds down, the Angels are looking to get Wally Backman (a 1.244 OPS in his first dozen games) and Ps Mike Smith and Harry Howell some time in the field as well as they look to next year.

Brett Anderson has pitched almost as well as Cole, and his return from the DL is a welcome site. But beyond that, the pitching staff is a whole lot of potential, but little else: Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Doc Gooden, and Pud Galvin have each had moments of promise, but on the whole, have been somewhere between mediocre and downright bad.

Francisco Rodríguez has done well in the bullpen, and an argument could be made that he should replace Joe Nathan as closer.

#New York Black Yankees

Let’s start with the new good news: the Black Yankees have run through something like 4 closers this season, but the position has finally been solidified with the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has a dozen saves and a 1.50 ERA for the Black Yankees, and 31 saves overall, and is the clear bright spot in the bullpen.

And then there is the old good news. This team can flat-out rake. We’ve spilled plenty of ink on Babe Ruth, but he deserves it, leading the league in OPS (1.095), HR (44), BB (104), and a few other things as well. Then there’s Mickey Mantle, who has taken over from Eric Davis as the second best hitter on the team. Mantle is slashing 323/424/555, and has only escaped being hailed as a superstar due to Ruth’s presence. 5 other regulars, plus 4th OF Albert Belle, all have OPS’ over .800. A mark of how deep the lineup is can be seen by Lou Gehrig (24 HR, .883 OPS) being criticized for an off year. Davis has 32 HR, and Mantle, Gehrig, Don Mattingly, and Mike Schmidt all have more than 20.

Even the backup catcher, Manny Sanguillén, has an OPS over .800.

And then the old meh news. The rotation is … fine? I mean, it’s fine, right? The quartet of Waite Hoyt (10-6, 3.95), Ron Guidry (7-12, 4.51), Jack Scott (14-5, 4.46), and Red Ruffing (13-9, 4.15) are … OK? Guidry’s secondary numbers (a 3.91 FIP, a 1.24 WHIP) are good, Scott’s aren’t. So … fine?

And then there is the Achilles’ heel of this club: the bullpen. Another midseason acquisition, Rheal Cormier, has been decent. But the rest–Dick Tidrow, Goose Gossage, Ralph Citarella–have fallen short again and again and again throughout the season. Gossage has shown signs of turning it around, even replacing Citarella as the primary RH setup man, but still … for a team that may need to win 6 of their final 8 games to make the postseason, the bullpen must be solid.

#Projected Starters

Los Angeles pitcher listed first.

Gerrit Cole (15-9, 4.30) @ Waite Hoyt (10-6, 3.95)
Pud Galvin (6-7, 4.75) @ Jack Scott (14-5, 4.46)
Jason Vargas (1-2, 3.03) @ Jamie Moyer (6-8, 5.05)
Brett Anderson (7-7, 3.75) @ Ron Guidry (7-12, 4.51)

TWIWBL 44.0: Series XXXVI Notes

September 5

Awards

Gavvy Cravath won the WBL Batter of the Month for August, marking a stunning debut month for the Portland Sea Dogs after being acquired from the Philadelphia Stars. Cravath hit .370 with 11 homers and 19 RBIs during the month.

The Pitcher of the Month was Andy Pettite, 4-0 with his new club after being obtained from the Kansas City Monarchs. Pettitte put up a 2.00 ERA for the Birmingham Black Barons in August.

Baltimore’s Curt Blefary was named the WBL Player of the Week, hitting .588 with 4 homeruns and 10 RBI’s.

Playoff Picture

And then there were eight … only eight games remain in the opening season of the WBL.

And only a single playoff spot is secured, that going to the Baltimore Black Sox, who lead the Chicago American Giants by 2 games in the Cum Posey Division, but whose .589 winning percentage is the best in the league. Chicago–with the second best record in the league–is all but guaranteed a spot in the postseason as well.

And then it starts to get flaky.

In the Bill James Division, the Detroit Wolverines and the New York Gothams are tied for first, with the Wandering House of David only 3 games behind. Right now, all three teams make the postseason.

Over in the Marvin Miller Division, Portland and the Cinderalla-story Birmingham Black Barons are tied for first, with both in playoff spots now as well.

And that leaves the shocker, where in the Cum Posey Division, the Cleveland Spiders have ridden a 9-1 record in their last 10 games to extend their lead over the New York Black Yankees to 5 games … leaving the Black Yankees–and presumptive league MVP Babe Ruth–out of the postseason picture. This is of their own doing, as the Black Yankees were swept by the lowly Memphis Red Sox in Series XXXVI.

The Brooklyn Royal Giants have overtaken the Houston Colt 45’s, but the Royal Giants are 4 games out of the playoffs and essentially have to win out to have a shot. They host Memphis in Series XXXVII, so there’s hope (but see above for Memphis’ sudden discovery of how to win ball games).

The Spiders and the Black Yankees both face potentially weaker opponents in this series, with Cleveland visiting the San Francisco Sea Lions and the Los Angeles Angels making the cross-country trip to ply the Black Yankees.

Many of the rest of these teams will beat up each other: Detroit hosts Birmingham, the House of David host the Colt 45’s and Chicago will visit Portland.

Performance

Batters

Only four players have an OPS above the magic 1.000 line: Babe Ruth (1.095), Ron Blomberg (1.065), Reggie Jackson (1.022), and Joe Jackson (1.005).

Again we’re omitting the two players tied for second with 12 triples, Alejandro Oms of the Miami Cuban Giants and Josh Gibson of the Homestead Grays, but we’re also not including the Ottawa MountiesTim Raines, second in the league in SB with 91.

Ty Cobb has regained the lead in BA as Pete Browning has hit a bit of a–for him–cold streak. The batting crown should come down to those 2, with Cleveland’s Ron Blomberg having a shot as well. Ruth looks to have the other 2 legs of the Triple Crown pretty well nailed down.

Ron Blomberg (CLE). 341/416/649. 41 HR.
Pete Browning (HOD). 342/379/614.
Ty Cobb (DET). 344/384/551. 179 H.
Eddie Collins (CAG). 310/409/507. 6.2 WAR.
Mike Fiore (CAG). 235/395/385. 102 BB.
Hank Greenberg (DET). 320/378/601. 44 2B.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 272/400/357. 102 BB, 93 SB.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 335/416/588. 106 R.
Reggie Jackson (SFS). 318/428/594.
Willie Mays (NYG). 330/393/534. 180 H.
Stan Musial (KCM). 325/389/573. 47 2B.
Doug Rader (LAA). 333/395/535. 128 RBI.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 317/433/663. 44 HR, 127 RBI, 119 R, 104 BB, 7.7 WAR.
Louis Santop (CLE). 306/336/468. 14 3B.

Pitchers

Starters

We’re looking at, in all likelihood, a maximum of 2 starts left for the starters, so it feels like 17 or 18 wins will lead the league this year.

Andy Pettitte‘s second half of the season has been stunning. Not only does he look to have the ERA crown wrapped up, his ERA is now sub-3.00, an incredible accomplishment in this league. Only five starters have ERA’s below 3.50: in addition to Jack Taylor, whose stats are below, Baltimore’s Bill Byrd (3.33), Brooklyn’s Frank Knauss (3.39), and Portland’s Walter Johnson (3.44).

Gerrit Cole (LAA). 15-9, 4.30.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 13-7, 3.68. 196 K.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 7-12, 4.51. 182 K.
Pat Malone (CLE). 16-8, 3.96.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 16-8, 3.54. 198 IP.
Alejandro Peña (BBB). 12-9, 3.69. 5.0 WAR, 3.41 FIP.
Andy Pettitte (KAN/BBB). 15-4, 2.95.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 12-7, 3.96. 3.45 FIP.
Charlie Root (SFS/DET). 9-6, 3.57. 1.08 WHIP.
Jack Taylor (HOD). 15-9, 3.22. 1.13 WHIP.
Cy Young (CLE). 11-9, 4.47. 197 IP, 4.7 WAR.

Relievers

35 IP for rate stats.

Terry Adams (CLE). 2-6, 2.81. 35 Sv.
Mike Henneman (DET). 2-6, 4.40. 37 Sv.
* Sean Marshall (BAL). 5-0, 1.79. 1 Sv, 8 H.
AJ Minter (CAG). 1-0, 2.75. 28 Sv. 0.97 WHIP, 2.90 FIP.
Buddy Napier (DET). 1-1, 2.75. 2 Sv, 8 H. 0.97 WHIP.
Mike Norris (NYG). 4-3, 1.44. 8 Sv, 14 H.
Ron Reed (PHI/CLE). 0-6, 4.50. 3 Sv, 17 H.
Ron Robinson (SFS). 6-5, 4.03. 1 Sv, 17 H.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 1-0, 1.83. 27 S, 1 H. 2.53 FIP.

* On Disabled List.

Streaks

Baltimore’s Larry Gardner heads into the final 8 games with a 19 game hitting streak (the league record is Babe Ruth’s 23). His teammate, Baby Doll Jacobson, has driven in a run in 7 straight games. While Mike Trout‘s teammate, Bobby Grich, had his consecutive games on base streak ended at 32, Trout has a 29 game run of his own.

Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams has 27 saves on the season, having converted 25 straight. More impressively to me, Cleveland’s Bill Steen hasn’t allowed a run in 19 innings, putting him only 5 behind the league record.

Series XXVI Results

Series XXVI Sweeps

Chicago over Kansas City
Cleveland over Philadelphia
Detroit over Indianapolis
Memphis over New York Black Yankees

Taking Three Out of Four in Series XXVI

Birmingham over Houston
Brooklyn over Portland
New York Gothams over Homestead
Miami over House of David

Series Splits in Series XXVI

Ottawa @ Baltimore
San Francisco @ Los Angeles

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