Baseball The Way It Never Was

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Year III Season Preview: Detroit Wolverines

State of the Franchise

team logo

Ask Detroit and they’ll tell you, without blinking, that the Wolverines are the real class of the Bill James Division — and that nobody outside the Motor City gives them a lick of credit. This is a club that went to Game 7 of the 2000 Whirled Series, owns the best player alive, and has made the playoffs in both years of the league’s existence. Of course, it is also a club that has finished a game under .500 and has never won the division, because the same thing keeps happening: the offense is a fireworks show, the pitching a house fire.

The window here isn’t measured in years. It’s measured in Ty Cobb, 22 years old and the best player on the planet, and every decision bends toward getting the most out of the time they have with him. Hank Greenberg (25) and Al Kaline (22) fill out a young, ferocious core, and Hal Newhouser (22) is the live arm they hope comes good. Greenberg looks content in Cobb’s enormous shadow. Kaline — a .957-OPS force in his own right — is the one to watch, the second star who may, in time, want a little light of his own.

Detroit believes in the box score: home runs, RBI, wins and losses, and their front office will tell you to take your fancy-ass WAR and shove it. Unless, of course, you’re referring to Cobb’s 9.3 watermark last season. That they believe in. The creed has built a genuinely fearsome lineup and, year after year, the wrong pitching staff.

Two seasons in, 2002 is less a campaign than an audition: find a dependable rotation — hell, even half a dependable rotation — or watch the Cobb clock start forcing hard choices.

2001 Revisited

We sold you a very well-balanced team last spring, a championship contender, with only some fussing about an aging supporting cast and a shaky middle infield. Half right. The middle infield fixed itself — Charlie Gehringer took second base and a deadline trade landed Bobby Wallace at short — and the aging role players mostly held.

What we badly undersold was the imbalance. This was not a balanced team. It was a historic offense bolted to a broken staff.

The bats were absurd. Cobb hit 386/440/841 with 54 homers, 72 doubles, 140 RBI, 157 runs and 82 steals (!), taking the Mel Trench Award and the All Rounder Award. Greenberg mashed 59 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first. At 21, Kaline claimed an everyday outfield job and posted that .957 OPS. Oscar Gamble carried a .396 on-base with 35 bombs, Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey combined for 53 homers, and a 35-year-old rookie named Juan Beníquez slugged his way to an .888 OPS.

They even had someone out-hit Cobb: J. D. Martinez posted a 1.291 OPS (.010 over Cobb’s) on 321/389/902 with 19 homers. Only 41 G, but still, that’s impressive.

Then there was the pitching. 28 arms cycled through the staff. Exactly 2 of them — Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman — finished with an ERA under 5.00, and nobody posted a WHIP under 1.30. Justin Verlander, Johnny Marcum, and a parade of others took the ball and got hammered. 81-82, 3rd place, and a first-round wild-card exit to San Francisco in which, of course, the arms got torched.

The lesson repeats until it’s learned: you cannot outscore a fire.

Key Changes

In:
Out: Logan Hensley (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Wander Franco

Best Case for 2002

One arm holds. Newhouser repeats his organizational Pitcher of the Year form, Verlander’s long evaluation finally resolves into a real number 2, or one of the kids — Pete Conway, the loud-spring wildcard Sid Fernandez, someone else — simply pitches.

That’s it. A lineup this good doesn’t need a great staff, only a competent one. Give Cobb, Greenberg, and Kaline a rotation that survives October, let Henneman anchor the deepest bullpen the club has ever had, and Detroit runs off with a soft division and, for once, might win a series instead of giving it away on the mound.

Worst Case for 2002

The rotation dies on schedule. Newhouser stays intermittent, Verlander stays combustible, the 35-year-old Connie Johnson breaks down, and a lineup that is louder on the scoreboard than in the WAR column can’t paper over a staff-wide 5.00. Detroit effectively treads water for a 2nd consecutive year, making that the true reality, and the championship challenge of 2000 a dim memory.

That outcome results in some churn as well. With Cobb’s prime too precious to waste and a surplus of bats the only currency on hand, the untouchable core stops being untouchable. Pieces move — and that, of course, is a crapshoot. Finally, there is Cobb himself: as the losing sets in, the proud, prickly identity curdles, and the fierce competitor in right field starts looking like something meaner.

Key Questions

  • Can they even recognize an ace? Detroit spends capital on pitching freely, buying Connie Johnson and Troy Percival last summer alone. It’s about evaluation. The Wolverines keep buying arms off a good month and watching them evaporate. Verlander is the test case: future rotation anchor, or future carpenter? Detroit has to answer that correctly, and its whole short history says it doesn’t do that so well.
  • Who plays the outfield and DH — and does Chili Davis finally get moved? With Cobb, Kaline, and Gamble spoken for and J. D. Martinez demanding at-bats, there’s a genuine logjam, and Chili Davis has already lost it — he opens the year on the bench, a big power name without a slot in the standard lineups. He’s the obvious piece to sell, Detroit keeps seeing his power track record, and keeps hesitating. Moving him means the front office finally might glance beyond the box score.
  • Who’s the shortstop — and the second baseman — in 2 years? Wallace is 35 and brittle, a 1-year bridge with no heir in the system; some will point to Wander Franco, who breaks camp at 20, but carries some conduct questions. Gehringer looks OK at 2B, but they’ve thought that before (Joe Wood, Tony Lazzeri, Damion Easley, etc, etc).

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CLombardi C · V. Martinez · Carrigan
1BGreenberg A · Beníquez C
2BGehringer C
SSWallace C · Franco
3BBailey C
LFGamble B
CFKaline B
RFCobb S · Davis C
DHJ. D. Martinez
SPNewhouser · Root F · Johnson · Verlander F · Conway · Fernandez · Marcum (IL)
RPHenneman D (CL) · Percival D · Bradford D · Napier C

The catching depth is real and quietly unusual — most teams don’t carry 3 backstops, and those that do tend not to anticipate solid contributions from all of them.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power1B Hank GreenbergLF Wes Covington
Batting EyeLF Oscar GambleLF Jack Cust
ContactRF Ty CobbSS Mike Caruso
Running SpeedRF Ty CobbCF Shane Victorino; RP Charlie Hilsey
Base StealingRF Ty CobbSS Ray Chapman; 3B Joe Werrick
IF Defense1B Hank Greenberg2B Hobe Ferris
OF DefenseRF Ty CobbRF Chris Denorfia
StuffSP Hal NewhouserRP John Hiller
ControlSP Dick DonovanRP Bill Gallagher
VelocityRP Troy Percival; SP Justin VerlanderRP Felipe Vázquez; RP Joakim Soria

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (54)23SPJohn Healy
2 (85)23CFMoose McCormick
3 (90)23SPFrank Lary
4 (94)19CBill Freehan

Others: P George Mullin, P Milt Pappas, P Jack F Wilson, IF Ray Chapman, OF Riley Greene.

A year ago this list was topped by 2 names now anchoring the everyday lineup — Kaline, last spring’s No. 1 prospect, and Gehringer at No. 4. A third, Emil Yde was shipped out to Baltimore. What replaced them is, for once, the right shape: the system ranks 18th and thin, but half the ranked names are armsJohn Healy (A) and Frank Lary (AA). The published order is not the org’s own, though: the name Detroit rates highest is the one the list ranks lowest, 19-year-old catcher Bill Freehan, and it thinks a good deal more of recent draft pick Riley Greene than his absence would suggest.

There are some other interesting arms: George Mullin struck out 172 across Double-A and Triple-A last year at 24, Milt Pappas put up 124 innings of 4.21 ball, and Jack F Wilson punched out 105 in 108 innings at Triple-A. None of them is a front-of-rotation answer and the run prevention is ordinary across the board. But competence is the goal, and they just might clear that bar.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTony Lazzeri, 37 (AA)Billy Hoeft, 19 (AAA)
HeightChad Bradford, 6’5″Charlie Hilsey, 5’7″ (A)
OPSTy Cobb, 1.281Bill Freehan, .368 (A)
HRHank Greenberg, 59George Mullin, 1 (AA)
SBTy Cobb, 82
WAR (bat)Ty Cobb, 9.3Bill Freehan, −2.0 (A)
WCharlie Root, 11
SVFrank Lary, 29 (A)
ERAMickey Lolich, 2.95 (A)Justin Verlander, 6.48
WAR (pit)George Mullin, 4.0 (AA)Troy Percival, −1.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year III Season Preview: Baltimore Black Sox

{ The first of 20 team previews as we head into the new season! }

State of the Franchise

team logo

Two springs ago, very few saw Baltimore as a contender — and the Black Sox answered by running up the best record in the inaugural year of the WBL and winning the Whirled Series over Detroit in 7 games. Then came last year: 77-85, 4th in the Bill James Division, 13 games out and never really in contention. Through both the coronation and the collapse the org’s self-image hasn’t flinched — Baltimore believes they are merely unlucky. The assumption is that 2000 was real and 2001 was, well, not.

There’s a case, and it revolves around names you’ll be seeing for a decade: Frank Robinson is 22. Cal Ripken Jr is 23, Manny Machado 24, Bryce Harper 21. All but Ripken were part of the championship run.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring at maximum confidence. “The best team in the league adds the best free agent,” we wrote of the Gavy Cravath signing — the biggest free-agent deal in WBL history — and declared that anything short of a second straight title would be a disappointment. To our modest credit, we named part of the way it could go wrong: the pitching reverts to mediocre, and Cravath and Dan McGann show their age.

The pitching, it reverted.

The arms were miserable — mostly because they were hurt. Ned Garvin, a Brock Rutherford Award contender before he went down, lost 10 months. Sean Marshall, unhittable in 2000, was out for close to a year. Justin Hampson came out of nowhere to make the AL All-Star team out of the bullpen and then went down for most of the second half. What was left included a game, but only slightly better than mediocre Dennis Martínez, and a revolving door for Jim Palmer, Mike Mussina, the since-departed Bill Byrd, and the since-acquired Gene Conley among others.

The offense did well enough: Robinson turned in another excellent season (308/394/674, a team-best 48 homers and 114 RBI). Cravath’s bat justified the checkbook — 44 homers, 111 RBI, Ripken emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order masher at shortstop: 32 homers, a Silver Slugger, runner-up for Rookie of the Year, and Harper — the youngest of the bunch — chipped in with a quiet (!) 41-homer season. And the gloves showed up — Gold Gloves for Paul Blair in center and Miller Huggins at second (Huggins is especially impressive, as he wasn’t anointed the full time 2B until well into the season).

Bottom line: the bats and the leather were championship-grade; the pitching was a rumor.

Key Changes

In: Curt Flood (BBB)
Out: Bill Byrd (BBB); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BBB)

Opening Day Rookies: Curt Flood; Jeff Montgomery; Emil Yde

Best Case for 2002

Health, mostly. Garvin comes back as the arm he was, one of Palmer or Martínez finally pitches to the level the advanced numbers indicate possible, and for once Baltimore fields something resembling a front of a rotation instead of a rehab ward. The young bats each take the half-step their ages promise; the Gold-Gloves up the middle keep turning balls in play into outs; and a club that was never really a 77-win team — just a team with a 77-win record — climbs back into the division race.

Worst Case for 2002

The curse holds.

The arms keep breaking, nobody announces themselves as an ace, either through performance or organizational choice, and both Cravath at 37 and McGann at 38 start acting their age. This last is a little less of a cliff — there is some talent behind them, but it has to step up (looking at you, Eddie Murray). 77 wins becomes 74, in the flattest, least-tradeable way possible.

Key Questions

  • Is there a No. 1 starter — and would they trust one if there were? Baltimore has ace-grade arms — Garvin, especially, but the org can’t bring itself to commit: Palmer’s plain ERAs get him doubted every year even as the context says he’s a real front-of-rotation starter, and the winter’s reclamation flier, Warren Spahn (acquired under the assumption the proverbial change of scenery will unlock his talent, despite him being thoroughly disastrous in every opportunity over 2 years) opens the year at Triple-A. Mussina? Also AAA. You can’t run a rotation on flavor-of-the-month forever.
  • Who covers the middle infield? Behind Ripken and Huggins there is Cliff Pennington and a prayer with Bobby Wallace being sent to Detroit at last season’s deadline. Baltimore has lost its 2 leading MI reserves — Asdrúbal Cabrera to Birmingham in trade and Brian Roberts to Miami via waivers. Ripken and Machado can cover each other, but it gets thin quick.
  • Does the aging value convert? Cravath and McGann are challenging: the worst case is they don’t perform and, therefore, cannot be traded for value at the All-Star break. Cravath’s contract may prohibit that, regardless, but in the best of all worlds, Baltimore is able to move them on midseason, escaping both their cost and their age.
  • What is center field, exactly? This is actually a mirror of the ace question. To analysts the answer is obvious: it’s Paul Blair, a two-time Gold Glover whose bat, while poor, isn’t horrific. But the Black Sox remain restless, with Earl Averill stashed at AAA and Curt Flood brought over from Birmingham.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBlefary B · Haller
1BMcGann C · Murray
2BHuggins B
SSRipken Jr A · Pennington
3BMachado C
LFRobinson S
CFBlair D · Flood
RFHarper B · Singleton D
DHCravath B
SPMartínez D · Palmer D · Garvin · Cuellar · Tudor
RPGroom C (CL) · Olson D · Hampson · Montgomery · Marshall

A genuine S/A middle of the order in Robinson, Ripken, and Harper, a Gold-Glove spine down the center of the field, and some great supporting pieces. But the mound is clearly in need of significant improvement (health, of course, will help).

Behind the plate, Curt Blefary is under more pressure than it may appear — his glove is fading fast, but he stays behind the plate for his bat and through his reputation. Rumors are surfacing of him being spotted far too often in bars near the stadium after games — great for interacting with the fans, perhaps not so much for on-field performance.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerRF Gavy CravathRF Ron Northey
Batting EyeLF Bryce Harper3B Frank Ward
ContactCF Curt FloodCF Gene Clines
Running SpeedSP Ned Garvin3B Frank Ward; RF Billy Lush
Base StealingSP Ned GarvinLF Hub Collins; RF Jack McGeachey
IF DefenseSS Cal Ripken JrSS Mark Belanger
OF DefenseCF Paul BlairRF Bill Jacobson
StuffRP Jeff Montgomery; RP Gregg OlsonRP Steve Kline
ControlRP Buddy GroomSP Johnny Sain
VelocityRP Gregg OlsonRP Rafael Betancourt; RP Frank Francisco

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (18)23RFRon Northey
2 (35)23LFHub Collins

Others: IF Bruce Bochte, P Steve Avery, IF Gunnar Henderson, IF Willie Montañez, IF Jose Altuve, P Bill Drake.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Eddie Murray (72), Emil Yde (78), Curt Flood (100).

A very different list than a year ago — because the system did its job. Cal Ripken Jr was the org’s No. 3 prospect a year ago, and Murray, Yde, and Flood all broke camp with the big club. Last year’s No. 1, second baseman Chino Smith, was inexplicably released, ending up with Chicago. What’s left is frankly underwhelming: Ron Northey (AAA), a corner bat, and Hub Collins (AAA) brought over from Detroit. Ninth-best system in the league at last count, mostly for the unranked talent, led by Henderson, Altuve, and Drake.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeDan McGann, 38Frank Ward, 17
HeightGene Conley, 6’8″Bobby Mathews, 5’5″
OPSFrank Robinson, 1.068George Gibson, 0.541 (A)
HRFrank Robinson, 48Frank Ward, 0 (AA)
SBFrank Ward, 50 (AA)
WAR (bat)Frank Robinson, 4.3Bill Jacobson, -1.2
WGio González, 13 (AAA)
SVFrank Francisco, 22 (AA)
ERAJoe Cascarella, 3.52 (AA)Gene Conley, 7.42
WAR (pit)Mark Baldwin, 4.7 (AAA)Johnny Sain, -0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 90.5: Off Season Review – Detroit Wolverines

81 - 82, .497 pct.
3rd in Bill James Division, 9.5 GB
Lost to SFS 4-3 in AL Wild Card

Overall

One of 2 teams to make the playoffs in each of the 2 WBL seasons, the Wolverines still seem like they are a team under construction. Like so many other franchises, it feels like it all comes down to the pitching, and whether they can put together a rotation that delivers consistently.

On offense, it’s all about Ty Cobb: as long as the 21 year old phenom is healthy, Detroit will score runs. Cobb’s not alone, and this year his supporting cast took a leap forward, as the excellence of Hank Greenberg, Oscar Gamble, and Al Kaline was supported by an overall solid group.

But the issue is really in the rotation where something between the dependable mediocrity of Charlie Root and the occasional brilliance of Hal Newhouser needs to emerge.

What Went Right

Ty Cobb, the nearly unanimous AL Brock Rutherford Award winner, was utterly ridiculous, slashing 386/440/841, hitting 72 doubles and 54 homeruns, driving in 140, and scoring 157 times. And, oh yeah, 82 steals. Just ridiculous.

Hank Greenberg raised his game, posting a 1.024 OPS with numbers that would have led most teams (59 homeruns and a 266/352/672 slash line).

Al Kaline laid a strong claim to being Detroit’s RF for years to come, with a .957 OPS and solid defense.

JD Martinez forced his way into the lineup again and again, managing (in 41 games) an OPS even higher than Cobb’s via a 321/389/902 slash line–that’s right, a .902 SLG curtesy of 19 homeruns in 126 PAs.

Oscar Gamble continued to be surprisingly effective, with an OBP nearly .400 and 35 homeruns. Perhaps even more surprising, 35 year old Juan Beníquez refused to give up his starting spot, posting an .888 OPS as a late career rookie.

Ernie Lombardi and Bob Bailey were quite solid at C and 3B respectively, combining for 53 homeruns and 142 RBIs.

In limited action, Tony Lazzeri and Ray Chapman each hit well, providing a short term solution to the middle infield. The long term solutions–Charlie Gehringer at 2B and Bobby Wallace at SS–were solid enough to settle the positions heading into the Spring.

What, you want a positive from the pitching staff? I’m looking, I really am.

Ah! Pete Conway. Conway was totally unheralded coming into the season, and finished 9-3, albeit with pedestrian looking WHIP and ERA (1.38 and 5.18, respectively).

I guess Hal Newhouser was a bright spot as well as the only starter with an ERA under 5.00, and the occasional bursts of brilliance. If Newhouser’s control can improve slightly, he could develop into a deserved front of rotation starter.

Mike Henneman was solid at closer after returning from injury.

That’s about it.

ALL STARS

Ed Bailey (subsequently traded)
Ty Cobb
MAJOR AWARDS

Ty Cobb, AL Mel Trench Award; AL All Rounder Award; All AL Team; AL DH Silver Slugger
Hank Greenberg, AL 1B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Juan Beníquez, AL All Rookie Team
Ty Cobb, AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Pete Conway, AL 21 & Under Team
Oscar Gamble, AL Over 30 Team
Charlie Gehringer, AL All Rookie Team
Hank Greenberg, AL 25 & Under Team
Billy Hoeft, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
Connie Johnson, AL Over 30 Team
Al Kaline, AL All Rookie Team
Charlie Root, AL Over 30 Team
Bobby Wallace, AL Over 30 Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ty Cobb, MVP
Hal Newhouser, Pitcher of the Year
Oscar Gamble, Heart & Soul
Ernie Lombardi, Fan Favorite

Mickey Lolich, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Wes Covington, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Offensively, what went wrong was largely solved by season’s end: the middle infield was a bit of a mess, as Billy Nash, Joe Wood, and George Davis all struggled. But Charlie Gehringer was acceptable at 2B and the trade for Bobby Wallace should solve SS, especially with the promising play of Ray Chapman and Tony Lazzeri at both positions.

Likewise, catching could have been an issue after Detroit traded away all star Ed Bailey, but Ernie Lombardi stepped into a nearly full time role as smoothly as the Wolverines could have hoped.

Roughly 25 pitchers made their way through Detroit, so that’s an indication that quite a bit went wrong.

We can start with Johnny Marcum, Si Johnson, and Justin Verlander, each given at least a half-dozen starts over the course of the season and each getting hammered, although Verlander ate up enough innings to accumulate some useful WAR.

Only 2 pitchers (nominal ace Hal Newhouser and closer Mike Henneman) managed ERA’s under 5.00 and nobody–nobody–had a WHIP under 1.3. The staff was just not good, with Joakim Soria, Vernon Wilshire, George Bechtel, Billy Hoeft, and Ray Sadecki earning particularly poor marks.

’nuff said.

Transactions

March

P Claude Osteen & 1st Round Pick to HOD for 2B Charlie Gehringer & 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. I mean the 1st is a lot to give up, but Gehringer played well enough to look like a long-term solve at 2B for Detroit.

July

C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau to CLE for C Victor Martinez, P Bill Drake, & 3rd Round Pick.

An odd one: they traded arguably the best catcher in the league to a division rival, but got decent value in return, as Martinez–despite his struggles this year–could supplant Lombardi and Drake looks to have a WBL future.

August

P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins, & 2nd Round Pick to BAL for IF Bobby Wallace & P Connie Johnson.

Drake’s stay was very brief in the end, as Detroit kept trying to balance future and present needs. They may have overpaid here, but Conley had totally imploded, Johnson retains some value and if they can get a few productive years out of Wallace, it will be fine.

P Dellin Betances, IF Robby Thompson, & 3rd Round Pick to NYG for P Steve Howe & P Troy Percival.

Thompson was pretty blocked, so this seems fine, especially if Percival sticks around for a bit.

Positional Overview

C

Next year should be a mixture of Ernie Lombardi and Victor Martinez, but they’re really just holding space until 18 year old Bill Freehan develops a bit more.

Bill Carrigan and Johnny Gooch are available if reinforcements are needed, although Derek Norris and Johnny Romano project to have more upside.

1B

Hank Greenberg is just entering his prime, and should have this locked down for a while. Juan Beníquez can fill in here, and veteran minor leaguer Wes Covington will get a look as well.

2B

Feels like Charlie Gehringer has seized this, but there are options, with Ray Chapman, George Davis, Tony Lazzeri, Billy Nash, and Damion Easley all able to play here. Chapman, at 23, is the only option younger than Gehringer, who is 25.

SS

The Wolverines gave up a bunch of talent for Bobby Wallace, with clear expectations that, at 35, he has at least a few years left. We’ll see.

It’s essentially the same crew behind him as at 2nd base, with the addition of the somewhat troubled, yet immensely talented, Wander Franco.

3B

Wallace can play here as well, but a mixture of Bob Bailey and Juan Beníquez are likely to see the bulk of the time.

Minor League vet Jimmy Collins may get a look as well, but that’s more a reward for time served than anything else.

LF/RF

For now, Oscar Gamble and Al Kaline, although a desire to get Ty Cobb on the field may cut into Gamble’s time a bit.

There are some useful pieces if needed: Bob Fothergill, Chuck Hinton, Geoff Jenkins, even Ron Swoboda.

CF

Detroit will still trot out Chili Davis here. He’s good enough at the plate, and they can live with the defense for a while. If they need help from the minors, it’s probably Adolfo Phillips or Johnny Mostil, although Kaline may be able to play here as well (which would solve the Cobb dilemma nicely).

DH

It’s Ty Cobb most days, but the Wolverines are committed to getting JD Martinez in the lineup as much as possible, so some of the OF variant mentioned above may be needed.

SP

This is the question.

Right now, this looks like Hal Newhouser, Connie Johnson, Charlie Root, Pete Conway, and an open competition with Justin Verlander and Johnny Marcum most likely to take the 5th spot.

And if you squint, maybe, just maybe, that could be a solid rotation. But the Wolverines are concerned.

George Mullin, George Bechtel, and Logan Hensley will get a look during the Spring as well, as will Mickey Lolich.

RP

The bullpen should be good, with a shot at being excellent. Mike Henneman has a shot at being among the best in the league if he can stay healthy, and the setup crew of Buddy Napier and Chad Bradford has been strongly bolstered through the arrival of Steve Howe and Troy Percival.

So, pretty settled. Hence all the focus on the starters.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

This doesn’t look like the year the Wolverines replenish their farm system–perhaps more importantly, they don’t really have the draft capital to use for starting pitching.

TWIWBL 90.4: Off Season Review – Baltimore Black Sox

77 - 85, .475 pct.
4th in Bill James Division, 13 GB

Overall

Quite a fall from winning the championship the previous season, with most of the fault being in (what else?) a faltering pitching staff.

Baltimore finally began to play well in August, but by then it was too late to do much other than play spoiler.

Most of the off-season focus in on the staff. There is a young core of position players, led by the emergence of Cal Ripken Jr and the continued brilliance of Frank Robinson, and with the right side of the infield being retooled, things seem OK offensively (although there is some skepticism that the turn to Eddie Murray over the aging-yet-still-productive Dan McGann may be being rushed).

But on the mound, a massive amount of improvement is needed, led by figuring out exactly who the starting pitchers are here.

What Went Right

Everything revolves around Frank Robinson, who at 22 is one of the elite talents in the game, slashing 308/394/674 and leading the team in HR, RBI, and runs scored.

Cal Ripken Jr really elevated his game, making an argument to join the elite shortstops in the WBL, showing power (32 homers) and decent bat control and defense.

Gavvy Cravath delivered, with 44 homeruns and 111 RBIs, making his free agent signing a success despite his sub .250 BA.

Bryce Harper continues to show up with an OPS just over .900 and good speed, even if his ultimate OF position seems to still be evolving.

This was supposed to be 1B Dan McGann‘s last year, but the 38 year old posted a .400 OBP with a little power to boot, complicating the Black Sox’s desire to turn the position over to Eddie Murray.

Miller Huggins took over at 2B, showing great defensive skills and an insane ability to get on base–Huggins ended up with the Gold Glove in the AL, a testament to just how good he was with the glove despite missing a fair chunk of the year in the minors.

Speaking of Gold Gloves, Paul Blair won his 2nd in CF. Still can’t hit.

Finally on the offensive side, Curt Blefary continues to be decently above average behind the plate, even with an overall slip in performance from last year’s heights.

So, that’s a decent amount, and certainly a strong enough list to warrant being in the playoff hunt. Until you get to the pitching. What went well … hmm …

Justin Hampson came out of nowhere to make the All Star team out of the pen. He got injured, so it was only 27 appearances, but they were pertty spectacular.

And … yeah … that’s about it. I mean, Buddy Groom was serviceable as a closer when called upon. Jim Palmer was never given a steady rotation spot, but was probably the best starter they had. Meh.

ALL STARS

Justin Hampson
Frank Robinson
MAJOR AWARDS

Paul Blair, AL CF Gold Glove
Miller Huggins, AL 2B Gold Glove
Cal Ripken Jr, AL SS Silver Slugger
RECOGNITIONS

Curt Blefary, All AL 3rd Team
Gavvy Cravath, AL Over 30 Team
Buddy Groom, AL Over 30 Team
Tom Haller, AL All Rookie Team
Bryce Harper, AL 21 & Under Team
Miller Huggins, All AL 3rd Team
Cal Ripken Jr, All AL 2nd Team; AL Rookie of the Year 2nd Place; AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team; AL All Rookie Team
Frank Robinson, All AL 3rd Team; AL 23 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Frank Robinson, MVP
Justin Hampson, Pitcher of the Year
Curt Blefary, Heart & Soul
Miller Huggins, Fan Favorite

Dick Ellsworth, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Asdrúbal Cabrera, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Larry Gardner and Bobby Wallace–key components of the championship season–were either hurt or injured. That opened the door for Ripken Jr and Huggins, but still.

And then there’s the pitching.

Injuries and indecision kept Baltimore from, aside from Dennis Martínez, settling on a rotation. Martínez was mediocre at best (12-8, 5.12), but he did provide steady consumption of innings.

Ned Garvin was worse then El Presidente, but looked to still be suffering the effects of his long-term injury.

Beyond that … misery. Johnny Sain, Bill Byrd, and Gene Conley were downright bad as spot starters and Gregg Olson and Sean Marshall were rocked coming out of the bullpen.

Baltimore needs bounce-back seasons from nearly everyone.

Transactions

March

None, and hopes were high.

July

P John Wetteland & 4th Round Pick to POR for P Mike Cuellar.

Cuellar was decent and Wetteland has been awful, so consider this a small win.

August

IF Bobby Wallace & P Connie Johnson to DET for P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins, & 2nd Round Pick.

Interesting trade for sure. It all hinges on how well Drake and Yde develop, but the contours of the deal make sense for Baltimore.

P Joe Beggs & 2nd Round Pick to KCM for OF Earl Averill.

Averill looks poised to displace Blair in CF, so this one looks OK as well.

Positional Overview

C

Curt Blefary is the answer here for a while, with Tom Haller behind him.

Should Haller falter, there are some options, most notably Ramón Hernández and Billy Earle.

1B

The plan was for Eddie Murray to take over here and Dan McGann to … well, do something. But McGann continues to offer significant offensive performance, and Murray struggled a bit in adjusting to WBL pitching. But the Black Sox are likely to stick with the plan, either using McGann as a high volume backup or finding a trade partner for him.

There is some talent in the system, from veteran Jim Bottomley to youngsters Willie Montañez and Bruce Bochte.

2B

Miller Huggins has made this spot his own, but that’s what Baltimore thought about Larry Gardner last year. Still Huggins’ defense and ability to get on base seems likely to stick.

Asdrúbal Cabrera, the organizational minor league player of the year, is likely to serve as the reserve infielder next year.

SS

Cal Ripken Jr looks to have this sewn up.

There is an intriguing choice for a backup in Mark Belanger, who cannot hit, but is a defensive wizard. It’s more likely the Black Sox keep using Machado and perhaps Cabrera behind Ripken Jr.

3B

Manny Machado has his detractors, but he really is quite solid, delivering 44 homeruns and 99 RBIs.

Brooks Robinson at AAA is better defensively, and the future may belong to either Frank Ward (still only 17) or Gunnar Henderson, but for now, this is Machado’s spot.

LF/RF

If we assume better options exist in CF, this looks to be Frank Robinson and Bryce Harper, with support from Ken Singleton, Phil Bradley, and perhaps occasionally Gavvy Cravath.

Baby Doll Jacobson has been solid when given the chance, and Steve Brodie, Ron Northey, and Larry Sheets all look like they could help out if needed.

CF

It’s the offense of Earl Averill against the defense of Paul Blair here. As is often the case in these situations, look for Averill to get the nod, with Blair’s playing time expanding if he struggles at the plate.

At 18, Paul Hines is well regarded, and either Gene Clines or Homer Smoot may still grow into something useful.

DH

This should be Gavvy Cravath‘s primary position.

SP

The Black Sox seem committed to Dennis Martínez and Ned Garvin, and Jim Palmer has done enough to warrant a more extended time here. So that leaves two open slots, with the competition between Bill Byrd, Mike Mussina, Mike Cuellar and a host of new names, led by John Tudor, Emil Yde, and Dick Ellsworth.

Mark Baldwin and Bob Welch should be useful at the WBL level, while the brightest lights lower in the system are probably Bill Drake, Joe Decker, and Milt Pappas.

RP

Buddy Groom will hold onto his role as closer, but his grip on that is tentative at best.

Look for the Black Sox to give Justin Hampson more time, Sean Marshall a chance to recover his form from last year, and Gregg Olson another chance, just because. Some of the players that miss out on the rotation will be here, and the trio of DJ Carrasco, Frank Linzy, and Mike Munoz will get a peek as well.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 1
4th Round: 0
5th Round: 1

The system needs talent, top to bottom, with only perhaps SS and the corner OF spots considered blocked.

TWIWBL 88.2: Teams of the Year By Age

The overall All-WBL Teams can be found here.

In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.

A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.

#WBL Teams of the Year

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BJim Thome (28, MCG)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BEddie Collins (28, CAG)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSArky Vaughan (27, CLE)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Ron Cey (27, BRK)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Aaron Judge (27, PHI)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Willie Stargell (31, HOM)
SPLefty Grove (27, SFS)
José Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (26, KCM)
Eric Gagne (27, BRK)

#WBL 25 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CMickey Cochrane (25, SFS)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BHank Greenberg (24, DET)Jeff Bagwell (24, HOU)
2BGrant Johnson (25, HOU/NYY)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Rick Monday (24, OTT)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Andrew Chafin (25, HOU)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)

#WBL 23 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BEddie Murray (22, BAL)Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BFrank Grant (22, HOD/SFS)Joe Morgan (22, IND)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Carlos Correa (23, HOU)
3BJimmie Foxx (22, SFS)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFFrank Robinson (22, BAL)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Richie Hebner (23, HOD)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Brett Anderson (22, LAA)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
Smokey Joe Wood (22, KCM)
RPAndrew Miller (23, MEM)
Goose Gossage (23, NYY)
Julio Teheran (22, LAA)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)
Ted Kennedy (22, PHI)

300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.

#WBL 21 & Under

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BRusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BMartín Dihigo (19, MCG)
SSDobie Moore (20, MEM)Judy Johnson (18, HOM)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (20, CAG)Ron Santo (21, HOD)
LFAlejandro Oms (21, MCG)Sherry Magee (21, PHI)
CFKen Griffey Jr (20, POR)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFBryce Harper (20, BAL)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)
SPWalter Johnson (20, POR)
Bob Feller (20, CLE)
Joseíto Muñoz (20, POR)
Ice Box Chamberlain (19, HOU)
JM Ward (20, PHI)
Sandy Koufax (21, BRK)
RPPete Conway (21, DET)
Tom Williams (20, CAG)
Billy Hoeft (19, DET)
Pete Donohue (21, NYG)
Edward Nolan (19, IND)
Vida Blue (21, HOU)

All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.

There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.

One more, largely for fun

#WBL Over 30 Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Jim Pagliaroni (32, MEM/BBB)
1BCarlos Delgado (32, LAA)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BRogers Hornsby (34, NYY)Ryne Sandberg (33, HOD)
SSBobby Wallace (34, BAL/DET)Ozzie Smith (30, KCM)
3BJim Ray Hart (30, NYG)
LFOscar Gamble (32, DET)Don Buford (32, LAA/NYG)
CFDave Henderson (33, IND)
RFKiki Cuyler (32, POR)Albert Belle (32, BBB)
DHGavvy Cravath (36, BAL)Joey Votto (32, IND)
SPAndy Pettitte (33, NYY)
Connie Johnson (34, BAL/DET)
Charlie Root (31, DET)
Gaylord Perry (33, NYG)
Eppa Rixey (31, IND)
Cliff Lee (30, HOM)
RPJonathan Papelbon (31, MEM/MCG)
Joe Nathan (31, LAA/SFS)
Buddy Groom (37, BAL)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Bob Howry (34, PHI)
Josh Lindblom (31, HOM)

Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.

TWIWBL 87.6: The Shortstops

The first position fairly evenly distributed between the two leagues, we also have the largest discrepancies so far–there is some excellence here along with some truly miserable performances.

Los Angeles is the only team not represented (Bobby Grich is listed with the 2B, nobody else played enough at SS for the Angels).

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHODErnie Banks25290/314/65359 HR
126 RBI
-10.9 ZR
.930 dEff

WAR would put Carlos Correa and Arky Vaughan here, perhaps even above Ernie Banks. But WAR ain’t everything, and getting the kind of power Banks provides from a SS is very special, even if his defense is not. For me, it’s Banks, and then a cluster of quality in the A Tier.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHOUCarlos Correa23318/399/55625 HR4.18 RF
ALBALCal Ripken, Jr23279/326/58432 HR4.80 RF
ALCLEArky Vaughan27294/380/49331 SB13.4 ZR
1.091 dEff

These are all surprises: Carlos Correa to be here at all (and only a late season slump kept him from giving Banks a run for his money), Cal Ripken, Jr to be here this quickly, and Arky Vaughan to have blossomed both with the glove and the bat.

Of the three, I would expect Ripken to have the best shot at moving up.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALSFSDick Lundy22291/338/45057 SB.987 fPct
NLOTTÁlex Rodríguez22252/314/55946 HR
32 SB
ALMCGRobin Yount26266/303/50528 HR
32 SB

This gets a little more complicated. Does Álex Rodríguez‘ offense warrant a nudge up? How about Dick Lundy‘s combination of speed and defense? In the end, they stay here with Robin Yount, who is just as solid as they come across the board. All three of these could move up merely by adding 25 walks a season, but they’re all pretty free swingers.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
POR/
PHI
Jim Fregosi25265/344/44621 SB4.12 RF
-12.3 ZR
NLHOMJudy Johnson18271/408/4541.078 dEff
ALMEMDobie Moore20291/352/42726 SB
ALBAL/
DET
Bobby Wallace34282/410/377.986 fPct
4.73 RF

There is an argument that Dobie Moore and/or Judy Johnson should move up a level, given their offensive output and their age. At the same time, neither played a full season, so it seems prudent to leave them here.

Had Bobby Wallace been healthy all season, he certainly would have warranted a spot in the B Tier for his mix of OBP and defense, while Jim Fregosi seems to barely warrant a slot here, especially considering his shaky defense. But these are all legit starting SS’s in the league, so the C Tier seems about right (although Homestead’s decision about how to structure their infield may move Johnson away from SS).

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLINDBarry Larkin23230/308/40427 SB1.074 dEff
NLBBBHerman Long27243/271/44524 SB.962 fPct
NLKCMOzzie Smith30235/317/34364 SB.992 fPct
12.2 ZR
MEM/
BRK
Vern Stephens29210/259/414
NLHOMHonus Wagner25230/285/41537 SB.957 fPct
.906 dEff

Speaking of Homestead, Honus Wagner may in fact deserve to be knocked down. But he has power, a fair bit of speed, and just so much athleticism. But whether he ends up at 2B, SS, or 3B is yet to be seen.

Ozzie Smith is a hard one to evaluate, as it’s not clear if his defense and speed should move him here, or all the way up to C Tier. In the end, we decided to be conservative in our evaluation of defensive contributions.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLNYGBrandon Crawford30221/268/381.966 fPct
ALNYYDerek Jeter33248/305/4394.10 RF
-19.8 ZR
.917 dEff
ALCAGFreddy Parent29229/270/2925.01 RF
13.6 ZR

Derek Jeter‘s offense is probably D Tier, but those defensive numbers are quite bad, nudging him down a category. Brandon Crawford may be done entirely, and Freddy Parent, even considering his glovework, is just a massive bust since being obtained by Chicago.

#Rookies

Cal Ripken, Jr. (A Tier), Judy Johnson (C Tier), and Dobie Moore (C Tier).

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

TWIWBL 84.2: AL Playoff Previews

The Wild Card Round in the AL will see the #1 seed, San Francisco, take on Detroit while Cleveland and the New York Black Yankees resume their season-long rivalry.

Previews are in order of seeding, starting with the Sea Lions

#San Francisco Sea Lions

San Francisco won 103 games this year and was the dominant team for almost all of the season. As such, postseason expectations are high, and warrantably so.

The front of their rotation can match up against anyone, with Lefty Grove (16-6, 4.40), Eddie Plank (20-7, 4.42), and the impressive rookie, Bump Hadley (18-6, 4.10) as dominant as they come. The back end of the bullpen is equally strong: Rod Beck led the league in saves with 41, Ken Howell was his usual spectacular self, and Joe Nathan was obtained via trade for the 7th.

Offensively, the Sea Lions are led by the presumptive AL Rookie of the Year, Turkey Stearnes, but he’s far from the only force: Rickey Henderson led the league in steals, Reggie Jackson and Jack Clark each had over 100 RBIs, and Clark, Stearnes, Jackson, and Jimmie Foxx each hit over 40 homeruns.

Even an injury that will prevent Frank Grant from seeing action for a week or 2 has an upside, as it clears playing time for Royce Clayton, who has an OPS over .900 as a reserve IF.

With Grant unavailable, the final spot on the playoff roster came down to a choice between Tommy Bridges and Wayne Gross, with the Sea Lions deciding to go with the the extra bat off the bench.

#New York Black Yankees

90 wins and a Bill James Division Title earned the Black Yankees the 2nd seed in the AL.

The story of the Black Yankees has remained the same over 2 seasons and numerous roster moves: can the bullpen do enough to support good starting pitching and an excellent offense?

Goose Gossage was given closer duties midway through the season and has been excellent overall, but getting to him as been challenging to say the least, prompting New York to overpay for Hoyt Wilhelm as a bridge between the starters, the erratic Aroldis Chapman, and Gossage.

Andy Pettitte has taken over the #1 slot from Ron Guidry, and after those 2 it’s a bit of a tossup between Dave Righetti, Pascual Pérez, and the surprising Tony Brizzolara.

Offensively, the team is a beast, with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle combining for over 200 HRs with star level support from Mike Schmidt, Eric Davis, and Rogers Hornsby.

Had he been recalled earlier, the surprising Josh Harrison would have made the playoff roster, but instead Jeff Nelson comes along as an extra bullpen arm.

#Cleveland Spiders

Cleveland faded down the stretch, finishing a game behind the Black Yankees. Still, a solid season for the Spiders, who relied on an impressive offense and a pitching staff that, while lacking star power, remained dependable top to bottom.

Cy Young led the way with 15 wins, but Bob Feller and Bill Steen were probably better as starters. Yordana Ventura started well this season, but faded and may be relegated to bullpen duty. Al Smith has locked down a spot in the pen, teaming with Cory Gearrin to get the ball to closer Terry Adams.

7 everyday starters sport OPS’ over .900, including the 33 year-old, late season callup, Willie McCovey. McCovey’s performance makes the roster a little heavy in 1B/DH/Corner OF types, with Lance Berkman, Ron Blomberg, and John Ellis all fitting that role, but 17 HRs in under 40 games can’t be ignored.

The key to the offense remains evil CF Tris Speaker, but Berkman, who led the Spiders in HR and RBI, isn’t far behind. A late season surge–including 4 homers on the final day of the season–has moved Larry Doby into that conversation, and Evan Longoria and Arky Vaughan have laid full claim to the 3B and SS roles, which were question marks for Cleveland earlier in the season.

Everyone makes the postseason roster, even the disappointing Louis Santop who, after starring last season, forgot how to hit and lost most of his playing time to mid-season acquisition Ed Bailey. Bailey has a bruised thigh, and will be unavailable for the first few games of the opening series, meaning Santop or Ellis will likely start behind the plate.

#Detroit Wolverines

A tailspin at the end of the year forced Detroit into a 1 game playoff for the final Wild Card spot, which they won handily. For that effort, they receive a matchup with San Francisco, in which they will be a significant underdog.

Still, it’s hard to count a team with Ty Cobb, he of the 386/440/841 slash line, out.

Cobb, however, didn’t lead the Wolverines in OPS–that honor fell to JD Martinez who just kept demanding more playing time as the season wore on. It’s only 125 PAs, but still. Hank Greenberg and Al Kaline provide significant support, and behind them, well, nobody is a star but nobody is bad. Oscar Gamble, Juan Beníquez, Ernie Lombardi, and Bob Bailey all have OPS’ over .850. Greenberg is out for the first game or 1, which is a significant blow for Detroit.

The middle infield is an open question, but Charlie Gheringer seems to have locked down 2B and a mixture of Tony Lazzeri and Ray Chapman are producing surprising offense from SS. There is an outside chance Bobby Wallace–obtained to be the solution at SS–is back during the postseason. We’ll see.

The weakness of this team is the starting pitching: Charlie Root was the only constant, and he was pretty mediocre. Hal Newhouser has an explosive arm, but an erratic track record, and after him, we’re looking at trade acquisition Connie Johnson and the surprising Pete Conway.

Closer Mike Henneman is still trying to recover from a back issue, meaning the bullpen will revolve around Chad Bradford, Steve Howe, Troy Percival, and Buddy Napier. Howe and Percival were obtained via trade and have been fairly inconsistent.

The final roster spot came down to a choice between George Bechtel and Johnny Marcum, with Detroit opting for Marcum’s experience, but neither have been very good this year.

#Predictions

San Francisco is just too good. Detroit can take some hope from having split the season series with the Sea Lions at 7 games each. But it just feels like too big of an ask.

San Francisco in 5.

The other series is just a continuation of a back-and-forth battle all season. The teams are completely familiar to each other, having met 23 times in the regular season, with Cleveland taking 12 wins against New York’s 11.

That feels right for the playoffs as well.

My head says New York in 7, but my heart says Cleveland takes advantage of yet another bullpen implosion to take the final game. We’ll see.

TWIWBL 80.4: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Cleveland Spiders76-59.563
New York Black Yankees76-62.5511.5
Detroit Wolverines69-68.5048
Memphis Red Sox62-74.45614.5
Baltimore Black Sox60-76.44116.5
Bill James Division | 2 September

#Baltimore Black Sox

Curt Blefary hit 2 out and threw out 4 runners, leading Baltimore to a 6-5 win over Cleveland in 13 innings as the Black Sox continued to play the spoiler role.

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado each hit 2 out as the Black Sox routed Cleveland, 14-5.

#Cleveland Spiders

Lance Berkman hit 2 homeruns, reaching 50 on the year, as the Spiders lost a lead, then regained it in a 7-6 victory over Baltimore. Superstar OF Tris Speaker had to leave the game, but is only expected to miss a few games.

Ron Reed had been pitching better of late, playing a key role in the Spiders’ bullpen. Now the Spiders will have to fend off (or catch) the Black Yankees without him, as Reed will miss the next 4 months or so. Billy Muffett, the closer at AAA for much of the season, was recalled.

#Detroit Wolverines

George Bechtel and Johnny Marcum were recalled from rehab assignments, while gold-glove winning SS George Davis started one.

Juan Beníquez, perhaps the most pleasant surprise of all for Detroit this season, made his 18th homer a walk off job as the Wolverines came from behind to beat Los Angeles 8-6.The game saw Ty Cobb set a new WBL record for hits with 192, and, less pleasantly, recently acquired IF Bobby Wallace had to leave the game with a leg injury.

Wallace is likely to miss the rest of the regular season with a quad injury, opening the door for Davis’ return from his long term injury and rehab assignment.

Hank Greenberg hit 2 out, including a grandslam in the top of the 9th as the Wolverines beat the Black Yankees, 9-5. Greenberg drove in 7, and Cobb added 3 hits for Detroit.

Al Kaline hit 2 out, but the Wolverines fell to the Black Yankees, 9-3.

#New York Black Yankees

Pascual Pérez was recalled from a rehab assignment, with Ron Bryant heading back to AAA. Pérez returns to the rotation, with Red Ruffing moving to the bullpen and the surprising Tony Brizzolara maintaining his rotation slot.

The Black Yankees had hoped to avoid this, but an ill-advised pinch running appearance landed Grant Johnson on the DL for about a week. Josh Harrison was recalled from AAA.

Rogers Hornsby torched his previous club for 2 homers in a 4-2 win over Portland that saw Brizzolara turn in another solid start for the Black Yankees.

TWIWBL 78.3: August Trades

A run through of the trading deadline, in no particular order. Over 50 players and almost 20 draft picks changed hands in the frenzy.

Hoyt There it Is!

P Waite Hoyt, 5th round pick from NYY to CAG for P Hoyt Wilhelm, IF Jorge Orta, 4th round pick.

The New York Black Yankees address a bullpen need by acquiring Hoyt Wilhelm from the Chicago American Giants, in exchange for young starter Waite Hoyt. Chicago will also send young IF Jorge Orta to New York, and the 2 teams exchanged draft picks, with New York getting a 4th and Chicago a 5th rounder.

It’s an odd trade for New York, as it’s not clear that Hoyt (Wilhelm) adds more to their bottom line of wins more than Hoyt (Waite). Chicago probably wins this one, just on the SP > RP evaluation. Orta should have a WBL career, but is not enough to balance the deal.

Now & Later

IF Paul Konerko, P Akinori Otsuka, OF Lenny Dykstra, 3rd round pick from CAG to BBB for P Sam Streeter, IF Trea Turner, 5th round pick.

Chicago officially closed the door on their performance for this season, sending 1B Paul Konerko and his .988 OPS along with Akinori Otsuka and his 1.07 WHIP to Birmingham, receiving P Sam Streeter and prospect Trea Turner in return. Chicago will also send OF Lenny Dykstra and a 3rd round pick, with Birmingham surrendering a 5th rounder to make it all work.

Konerko and Otsuka being on the wrong side of 30 makes this acceptable, and Chicago probably got peak value for them in a long-term starter and the talent of Turner. Birmingham is thrilled, as this addresses two of their most pressing needs for a playoff push: 1B and bullpen help.

The Wolverines Commit

P Gene Conley, P Bill Drake, P Emil Yde, OF Hub Collins from DET to BAL for SS Bobby Wallace, P Connie Johnson.

Detroit addressed two needs in a deal with Baltimore, sending struggling P Gene Conley (who is in search of a reboot to their career after an amazing start last season), promising young Ps Bill Drake and Emil Yde along with OF Hub Collins to Baltimore in exchange for SS Bobby Wallace and P Connie Johnson.

I mean … Detroit loves this for the immediate future. The key here is whether Yde, and especially Drake, ever amount to anything. This does remove any question about the infield of the future for the Black Barons, with Eddie Murray, Miller Huggins, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Manny Machado all but assured of starting roles.

Stars and Sea Dogs move a lot of Bodies

SS Jim Fregosi, P Mark Melancon, OF Harry Hooper, IF Rafael Palmiero from POR to PHI for OF Bobby Abreau, P Dave Stieb, P Jaret Wright, P LaTroy Hawkins, SS Pat Meares, 2nd round pick.

Philadelphia, eyeing a potential playoff run, went shopping in Portland. They added a long-term solution at SS (Jim Fregosi), a much-needed bullpen arm (Mark Melancon), and some OF depth in the struggling Harry Hooper. That haul cost them 3 pitching prospects in Dave Stieb, Jaret Wright, and LaTroy Hawkins, as well as SS Pat Meares, and a 2nd round pick. The teams also swapped high-ceiling-but-blocked prospects, with Portland receiving Bobby Abreu and Philadelphia Rafael Palmiero.

Abreau for Palmiero is a wash. Of the rest, it’s sort of a classic now/later proposition. Fregosi and Melancon step directly into key roles for the Stars, but Hawkins, and especially Stieb, do look like excellent long term prospects.

The American Giants Do Some (More) Things

OF Jake Stenzel from IND to CAG for P Joe Lake.
IF Freddie Lindstrom, 2nd round pick from HOM to CAG for P David Price.

Chicago believes they can solve their pitching woes from within, sending 2 members of their rotation packing. First, they received CF Jake Stenzel from Indianapolis for Joe Lake; then they sent David Price to Homestead for Freddie Lindstrom and a 2nd round pick.

Stenzel steps into a crowded outfield, but should get a lot of play the rest of the season while the American Giants’ commitment to the struggling teen Cristóbal Torriente is tested. This basically decimates the American Giants’ rotation, leaving them with Ed Walsh and a lot of questions, but Lake and Price (who himself only arrived via trade earlier last season) were questions themselves. Lindstrom may step into a WBL role behind Dick Allen at 3B.

A Closer for Some Future

P Jonathan Papelbon, 4th round pick from MEM to MCG for P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas, 3rd round pick.

Memphis sent Jonathan Papelbon to Miami, receiving minor leaguers Josh Beckett and Roy Thomas in return. The team also exchange draft picks, with Memphis surrendering a 4th in exchange for Miami’s 3rd round selection.

Fair enough. Miami desperately needed a dependable arm to join Ricky Nolasco in their pen, and Beckett has a ton of upside.

The Black Barons Upgrade

IF Bobby Grich, 3rd round pick from LAA to BBB for P Vic Willis, C Gene Tenace, 1st round pick.

Birmingham came into this trade period looking for a SS; they left with a 2B (who can play SS). In a bit of a surprise move, they convinced LA to part with Bobby Grich, sending Vic Willis, Gene Tenace, and a 1st rounder to the Angels, who also sent a 3rd round pick back their way.

Grich is a huge pickup for the Black Barons–an all star caliber who can get on base and play both middle infield positions is exactly what the doctor ordered in Birmingham. They gave up a lot–Tenace is excellent, some think Willis will eventually be a number one starter, and of course, the #1 pick is a lot. But it seems Birmingham is convinced they have a shot in the playoffs this year, and you can’t fault the ambition.

First Round Picks On the Move, or Freeman at Last, Freeman at Last

P Joe Beggs, 2nd round pick from BAL to KCM for OF Earl Averill.
IF Freddie Freeman, IF Eddie Miller from SFS to LAA for P Joe Nathan, IF Wally Joyner, 1st round pick.

Baltimore found a potential CF for the future in Earl Averill, who came over from Kansas City for a Joe Beggs and a 2nd round pick.

One of the more promising talents in the WBL may have found a home, as Los Angeles sent a 1st Round Pick, closer Joe Nathan, and Wally Joyner to San Francisco for Freddie Freeman and minor league SS Eddie Miller.

Both of these make some sense, as both Freeman and Averill were totally blocked where they were (Freeman by Jimmie Foxx and others, Averill by Willie McGee and Cool Papa Bell). Freeman should immediately see playing time in LA, while Averill looks to be in the mix for next season.

Gothams Going Gone

P Juan Marichal, P Robb Nen from NYG to HOM for IF Davey Johnson, IF Howard Johnson, 3rd round pick.
P Steve Howe, P Troy Percival from NYG to DET for IF Robby Thompson, P Dellin Betances, 3rd round pick.

The Gothams moved a few pieces around, sending Juan Marichal and Robb Nen to Homestead for 2B Davey Johnson, Howard Johnson, and a 3rd round pick. Then, they moved Steve Howe and Troy Percival to Detroit for 2B Robby Thompson, P Dellin Betances, and a 3rd round pick.

The Gothams will need to totally redo their staff, but each move makes some sense. Between Johnson (Davey) and Thompson, they should now have a post-Larry Doyle plan at 2B.

The Black Yankees Find their SS of the Future?

P Sparky Lyle, IF Elliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd round pick, 4th round pick from NYY to HOU for IF Grant Johnson.

They hope so, sending Sparky Lyle, Elliott Maddox, pitching prospect Carlos Rodón, and a 2nd and a 4th round pick to Houston for Grant Johnson, who will rotate in with both Derek Jeter and Rogers Hornsby for now.

It’s a lot to give up, for sure. But Johnson is only 25, and an established WBL performer who will solve the Black Yankees’ long term needs at either 2B or SS. Lyle is solid, and fills a very strong need for Houston, but the rest of what they gave up was future potential, which is cheap for a team whose goal is to win now.

Other Deals

OF George Hendrick from PHI to BRK for 3rd round pick.
IF Joe Adcock from NYG to MCG for 5th round pick, cash.

Philadelphia sent OF George Hendrick to Brooklyn for a 3rd Round Pick.

Miami picked up Joe Adcock from the New York Gothams essentially for free: they sent the Gothams a 5th round pick, and the Gothams are covering Adcock’s salary for the rest of the year.

Each of these were essentially curtesy trades: having picked up Harry Hooper, Philadelphia had no place for Hendrick and Adcock, at 38, desperately wanted a chance to swing the bat for a contender in what may be his final season.

Summary

Minor Leaguers in italics.

TeamComingGoing
Baltimore Black SoxEarl Averill
Gene Conley
Hub Collins
Bill Drake
Emil Yde

2nd Round Pick
Joe Beggs
Connie Johnson
Bobby Wallace
1st Round Pick
2nd Round Pick
Birmingham Black BaronsLenny Dykstra
Bobby Grich
Paul Konerko
Akinori Otsuko
3rd Round Pick
4th Round Pick
Sam Streeter
Gene Tenace
Trea Turner
Vic Willis
1st Round Pick
5th Round Pick
Brooklyn Royal GiantsGeorge Hendrick3rd Round Pick
Chicago American GiantsWaite Hoyt
Freddie Lindstrom
Jake Stenzel
Sam Streeter
Trea Turner
2nd Round Pick
5th Round Pick
5th Round Pick
Lenny Dykstra
Paul Konerko
Joe Lake
Akinori Otsuko
David Price
Hoyt Wilhelm
Jorge Orta
3rd Round Pick
4th Round Pick
Cleveland Spiders
Detroit WolverinesSteve Howe
Connie Johnson
Troy Percival
Bobby Wallace
Dellin Betances
Gene Conley
Hub Collins
Bill Drake

Robby Thompson
Emil Yde

2nd Round Pick
3rd Round Pick
Homestead GraysJuan Marichal
Robb Nen
David Price
Davey Johnson
Howard Johnson

Freddie Lindstrom
2nd Round Pick
3rd Round Pick
Houston Colt 45’sSparky Lyle
Elliott Maddox
Carlos Ródon
2nd Round Pick
4th Round Pick
Grant Johnson
Indianapolis ABC’sJoe LakeJake Stenzel
Kansas City MonarchsJoe Beggs
2nd Round Pick
Earl Averill
Los Angeles AngelsFreddie Freeman
Eddie Miller
Gene Tenace
Vic Willis
1st Round Pick
Bobby Grich
Wally Joyner
Joe Nathan
1st Round Pick
3rd Round Pick
Memphis Red SoxJosh Beckett
Roy Thomas
3rd Round Pick
Jonathan Papelbon
4th Round Pick
Miami Cuban GiantsJoe Adcock
Jonathan Papelbon
4th Round Pick
Josh Beckett
Roy Thomas
3rd Round Pick
5th Round Pick
New York Black YankeesGrant Johnson
Jorge Orta
Hoyt Wilhelm
4th Round Pick
Waite Hoyt
Sparky Lyle
Elliott Maddox
Carlos Rodón
2nd Round Pick
4th Round Pick
New York GothamsDellin Betances
Davey Johnson
Howard Johnson
Robby Thompson
3rd Round Pick
3rd Round Pick
5th Round Pick
Joe Adcock
Steve Howe
Juan Marichal
Robb Nen
Troy Percival
Ottawa Mounties
Philadelphia StarsJim Fregosi
Harry Hooper
Mark Melancon
Rafael Palmiero
3rd Round Pick
Bobby Abreu
LaTroy Hawkins
George Hendrick
Pat Meares
Dave Stieb
Jaret Wright
2nd Round Pick
Portland Sea DogsBobby Abreu
LaTroy Hawkins
Pat Meares
Dave Stieb
Jaret Wright
2nd Round Pick
Jim Fregosi
Harry Hooper
Mark Melancon
Rafael Palmiero
San Francisco Sea LionsWally Joyner
Joe Nathan
1st Round Pick
Freddie Freeman
Eddie Miller
Wandering House of David

TWIWBL 77.4: Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Cleveland Spiders67-48.583
New York Black Yankees65-54.5464
Detroit Wolverines57-60.48711
Memphis Red Sox55-63.46613.5
Baltimore Black Sox50-67.42718
Bill James Division | 12 August

#Baltimore Black Sox

Two homeruns from Frank Robinson weren’t enough as the Black Sox fell to Los Angeles, 5-2. There was a positive: Ned Garvin pitched very much like the Ned Garvin of last year despite taking the loss.

After a few trades, the Black Sox welcomed Gene Conley and recalled Bill Byrd to their bullpen, and recalled Larry Gardner to backup Miller Huggins at 2B.

#Cleveland Spiders

Ed Bailey went deep twice, giving him a dozen with Cleveland and 32 on the season, as the Spiders topped Portland, 13-4.

#Detroit Wolverines

Superstar Ty Cobb hit for the cycle, but it wasn’t enough, as the Wolverines fell to Miami in a slugfest, 16-11.

The next day, Oscar Gamble hit 2 homeruns and this time the Wolverines prevailed, 11-5. However, starter Johnny Marcum had to leave the game, and is headed to the DL nursing an oblique injury. Gene Conley was recalled, having improved a bit during his stint at AAA.

Needing a starter, the Wolverines exchanged Billy Hoeft (who has struggled mightily after a promising start to the season) for Ray Sadecki. Sadecki did alright–2 earned in over 5 innings–but still got tagged with the loss as Detroit fell 10-1 to Miami. George Bechtel, who had pitched well of late, was injured, and will spend about a week on the DL, with Detroit recalling Buddy Napier from his rehab stint after the game.

Ernie Lombardi had 2 round trippers, leading the Wolverines to an 8-6 win over Miami. Chili Davis did the same: 2 homeruns, reaching 30 on the year, in a 10-6 victory over Memphis.

To make room for trade acquisitions, Dick Donovan and Sadecki were both shipped to AAA. Connie Johnson steps into the rotation, while Troy Percival and Steve Howe hit the Wolverines’ bullpen and Bobby Wallace steps into the starting role at SS.

#Memphis Red Sox

At some point, you gotta’ produce … veteran IF Nomar Garciaparra was released, with Dobie Moore being recalled from his rehab assignment.

Sadie McMahon was recalled from AAA leaving the Red Sox bullpen full of arms, but not terribly clear on roles.

Stubby Overmire tossed a complete game 3-hitter as Memphis topped Detroit, 5-0. With the win, Overmire improved to 11-9 and lowered his ERA to 4.27.

#New York Black Yankees

Rogers Hornsby was recalled from his rehab assignment, with Tom Herr heading back to AAA.

Dave Righetti returned to the Black Yankees’ rotation.

Babe Ruth hit his 53rd and 54th homers of the year, leading New York to a 7-1 win over Memphis.

With Waite Hoyt‘s departure, the Black Yankees named the surprising Tony Brizzolara to their rotation for the time being and promoted reliever Jeff Nelson from AAA.

Mike Schmidt and Hornsby went back-to-back twice, but it wasn’t enough as New York’s bullpen couldn’t close it out in an 11-10 loss to Baltimore. The next day, it was Lou Gehrig‘s turn to hit 2 out of the park, giving him 47 on the year and leading New York to a 5-2 win over Baltimore.

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