But only 2 pitchers had ERAs under 5.00. OK, 3 if you count Billy Koch‘s 3 innings. So that’s the issue.
But 7 players hit over 30 homeruns (and Rusty Staub 29), 6 full time (or nearly so) players had OPS’ over .850, and the peaks–Gary Carter, Roberto Alomar, Larry Walker, all 3 of whom both drove in and scored over 100 runs–were shockingly high.
So the question for Ottawa is relatively simple: how does a franchise maintain the offensive performance and get something approaching league average pitching.
What Went Right
Virtually everything related to the offense. We can take this by position.
Gary Carter was the 2nd best catcher in baseball.
Roberto Alomar was the best 2B in baseball.
Álex Rodríguez hit 46 homeruns as a 22 year old SS.
Tim Raines stole 115 bases and scored 119 runs.
Carlos Beltrán hit 35 homeruns, posted an .865 OPS, and went 42-3 in steals.
Larry Walker hit 54 homeruns with a .998 OPS and 126 RBIs.
And that doesn’t even mention the Rick Monday conundrum: Monday slashed 272/364/604 and just relentlessly demanded more and more playing time, most at DH. There is really no space for Monday in Ottawa, but how do you ignore that level of performance?
In 100 PAs, Josh Donaldson was similar: a 269/366/718 slash line, but somewhat blocked.
And then we have the pitching. Um … yeah.
Roy Halladay is quite good, and his 15-9 record and 1.26 WHIP are more reflective of his performance than his 5.17 ERA.
Bill Smith was every bit as good as Halladay while missing some time through injury, finishing with a 10-3 record and a stellar 3.77 ERA.
Tom Henke had a bumpy return from injury, but overall established himself as the closer for the team.
And that’s about it. Johnny Podgajny ate up innings and BJ Ryan was reasonably effective from the pen.
ALL STARSRoberto AlomarÁlex RodríguezLarry Walker
MAJOR AWARDSRoberto Alomar, NL All-Rounder Award; NL 2B Silver Slugger
Larry Walker, NL RF Silver Slugger
RECOGNITIONSGary Carter, Mel Trench Award 3rd Place; All NL 2nd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Josh Donaldson, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Rick Monday, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Álex Rodríguez, All NL 3rd Team
Rusty Staub, NL 23 & Under Team; NL 21 & Under Team
Sam Thompson, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Larry Walker, All NL 2nd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDSRoberto Alomar, MVP
Roy Halladay, Pitcher of the Year
Roberto Alomar, Heart & Soul
Gary Carter, Fan Favorite
Billy Koch, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
John Olerud, Minor League Player of the Year
What Went Wrong
The Mounties used twenty-four pitchers. Twenty-four. And while there were injuries a plenty (only Halladay had more than 30 starts, only Podgajny more than 20), there were also an overwhelming number of poor performances. Some of the lowlights:
Randy Johnson continues to struggle, posting an ERA over 8 in just over 100 innings. Johnson’s stuff is electric, but something has to shift or Ottawa needs to give up on him.
Atlee Hammaker was pummeled, allowing 40 homeruns in 89 innings. Read that again. That made Hammaker one of six Ottawa hurlers who averaged giving up at least 4 homeruns per 9 innings. Five pitchers averaged over 5 walks per 9. Max Scherzer did both.
I could go on, but it just hurts so much.
You may have noticed that 1B and 3B weren’t mentioned in the what went right review. Rusty Staub and Adrían Beltré weren’t bad, but they also were below league average for sure.
Roy Sievers and Bob Watson were bad, with each of them unable to get close to .700 OPSs.
Transactions
March
OF Ken Griffey, Jr & 4th Round Pick to POR for IF Adrián Beltré, OF Denard Span, P Atlee Hammaker, P Pedro Ramos, & 2nd Round Pick.
Portland looks to have won this on pure talent, but you have to remember this also allowed Carlos Beltrán to be the everyday CF, and Beltrán was excellent.
July
The Mounties stood pat at the All Star Break, as much for a lack of partners than a lack of desire.
August
The Mounties wanted to do something here, but their valuable pieces are too young–this nucleus holds promise, but may need to be broken up in the quest for pitching.
Positional Overview
C
No idea if Gary Carter can keep doing this, but what a treat The Kid was this year. Look for Emil Gross to return as his backup.
Milt May holds some long-term promise (but of course, it should be remembered that, at 21, is only 1 year younger than Carter and Gross).
1B
The Mounties have a lot of talent here, and its not clear what the right move is. It’s tempting to move Larry Walker here and deal with the surplus in the OF. In the meantime, look for John Olerud to be given every opportunity to seize this role in Spring Training.
But John Mayberry, Rusty Staub, Bob Watson, and Tino Martinez all have their supporters, and are likely to be useful WBL players at some point, either here or elsewhere.
2B
Very few people had Roberto Alomar supplanting Eddie Collins as the best 2B in the WBL, but that happened. Especially with that development, look for Tim Raines‘ occasional forays into the infield to become more and more rare.
Jimmy Dykes and Joey Cora each hold some promise in the system.
SS
Nobody is wishing Ottawa kept Freddy Parent now … Álex Rodríguez is not very far from being the best SS in the league: 46 homers at 22 will do that.
The system is pretty barren after that, with Henry Easterday and Dick Bartell offering some defensive options, but little else.
3B
Adrian Beltré has some detractors, but he’ll be here for a while, although Josh Donaldson is giving him some competition. Larry Parrish and Art Devlin are the most likely options if needed while Kyle Seager will push for playing time at some point.
It’s assumed that, eventually, Rodríguez will shift here, but that’s a problem for a future day.
LF/RF
Tim Raines in left and Larry Walker in right feel very set, although Walker’s continued injury struggles are worrisome (and part of why the move to 1B could be attractive).
There are options: Wee Willie Keeler is turning heads throughout the system; Rusty Staub, while slow, isn’t too slow for the outfield yet; and Sam Thompson has done nothing but hit when given the opportunity.
And that’s ignoring Ryan Klesko, Jackie Jensen, Terry Puhl, Jason Heyward, Warren Cormartie …
CF
Giving Carlos Beltrán the fulltime job was a great decision in hindsight. But it does nothing to help Ottawa figure out what to do with Rick Monday, who will be taking as many reps in RF as possible during Spring Training.
Others can play the position, but the only dedicated CF worth noting in the system is 20 year old Denard Span.
DH
Rick Monday, we guess?
SP
Health is such a cruel mistress.
In a perfect world, Ottawa would go with Roy Halladay and Bill Smith; Old Hoss Radbourn would step up, becoming more than an innings eater; Bill Smith or Bob Moose or Bob Brown or Gary Peters or Dupee Shaw or Max Scherzer or, well, anyone, would step up; and, most fantastically, the immense talent of Randy Johnson would show up, like, at all.
It could be a bizarre Spring.
RP
There is reason for optimism, as the closing trio of Tom Henke, BJ Ryan, and Billy Koch could be quite good.
Beyond those three, look for the fallout of the starting competition to end up here. Greg Holland, Rick Camp, and Mark Eichhorn all have potential to help, but may be a bit far from the WBL at this point.
The American League dominates in LF (remember, some folks you might think as OFers spent most of their time at DH).
We have a new defensive metric for outfielders: ARM, which is an estimate of the number of runs saved (or allowed) from their throwing arms.
#S Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
LAA
Kal Daniels
24
340/422/652
39 HR 106 RBI 111 R 55 SB
AL
BAL
Frank Robinson
22
308/394/674
48 HR 114 RBI 106 R
5 A
AL
NYY
Babe Ruth
25
280/412/744
73 HR 167 RBI 146 R 119 BB
I do feel sorry for Kal Daniels–that is a stupendous season right there, and he has no shot at being the best LF in the AL, not with Babe Ruth around. And Frank Robinson is the youngest of the trio, which speaks volumes for the future in Baltimore.
#A Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
MEM
Ted Williams
22
303/423/616
41 HR 109 RBI 125 R 109 BB
.975 fPct 1.49 RF -3.8 ARM
Seems strange to have only 1 name here, but there is clear separation between Robinson and Ted Williams (the only thing Williams does better is take walks), and when defense is factored in, this makes sense.
#B Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
—
MCG/ BBB
Ryan Braun
24
272/319/603
48 HR 102 RBI 24 SB
AL
DET
Oscar Gamble
32
249/396/533
35 HR
1.29 RF
AL
SFS
Rickey Henderson
22
256/385/454
103 R 107 BB 126 SB
12.2 ZR 1.117 dEff -3.6 ARM
NL
HOM
Rick Reichardt
24
284/355/586
39 HR 22 SB
NL
HOU
Jim Wynn
23
246/359/521
37 HR 116 R 38 SB
3.7 ARM
An interesting mix of useful players. Rickey Henderson is electric, for sure, but until he hits a bit more, he’s not elite and the other 4 are just dependable and solid, although it could be argued that Jim Wynn is a tier too high.
#C Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
CLE
Johnny Bates
27
282/349/470
55 SB
8.8 ZR
AL
DET
Juan Beníquez
35
313/379/509
.965 fPct 1.08 RF
NL
PHI
Sherry Magee
21
265/314/495
47 SB
.994 fPct
AL
MCG
Alejandro Oms
21
308/383/441
1.91 RF 1.121 dEff
NL
OTT
Tim Raines
23
251/353/442
119 R 115 SB
-6.8 ZR
NL
HOD
George Stone
30
286/359/478
29 SB
NL
BRK
Roy White
29
258/350/499
21 SB
6 A 10.3 ZR 1.068 dEff
These are all solid players with a question mark in their game, usually revolving around a lack of power. There’s nothing wrong with this group, but they are, at this point, complimentary pieces not cornerstones.
Note that Alejandro Oms, Sherry Magee, and Tim Raines are so young that being here really puts them on a great trajectory.
#D Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
NL
IND
Bob Bescher
26
253/355/440
80 SB
1.93 RF -4.8 ZR
—
LAA/ NYG
Don Buford
32
239/363/450
28 SB
.993 fPct
—
NYY/ HOU
Elliott Maddox
21
260/371/397
.972 fPct -5.8 ZR 2.7 ARM
NL
KCM
Ducky Medwick
29
261/290/467
1.94 RF -3.4 ARM
The only thing separating Bob Bescher from Raines is playing time, so perhaps he belongs up one Tier alongside The Rock? And this may be a bit unfair to Ducky Medwick, but the statistical metrics really ding him for not being willing to take a walk.
#F Tier
Lg
Tm
Name
Age
Slash
Other
Def
AL
POR
Kiki Cuyler
32
240/315/364
26 SB
—
POR/ PHI
Harry Hooper
24
203/312/382
31 SB
1.000 fPct 2.0 ARM
NL
BBB
Bob Nieman
30
209/301/413
There is some talent here, but nowhere near the offensive production to hold down a roster spot in the WBL.
#Rookies
Juan Beníquez (C Tier), Elliott Maddox (D Tier), and Kiki Cuyler (F Tier).
#Fielding Notes
We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.
Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.
Houston‘s Jim O’Rourke continues a great recovery from a disappointing performance last season with a National League Player of the Week Award. O’Rourke hit .550 in the penultimate week of the season as the Colt 45’s try to clinch their first Marvin Miller Division title.
In the AL, the often-overlooked Lou Gehrig picked up the Award with the Black Yankee‘s 1B hitting .400 with 6 homeruns.
#Team Performance
#AL
The Black Yankees had a good week in the Bill James Division, moving from a virtual tie with Cleveland into a 1.5 game lead. The Detroit Wolverines, however, have picked a bad time to struggle, and they now hold only a half-game lead over Miami for the final Wild Card spot.
It’s an interesting final week on the schedule: the Black Yankees visit San Francisco in a likely playoff series preview, and then close out the year against the much-improved of late Baltimore Black Sox. Cleveland probably has the easiest schedule, hosting the lowly Memphis Red Sox, and then ending the year at Miami, who play Detroit before that series with the Spiders.
Miami not only has their future in their own hands, they also could decide the Black Yankees / Spiders race.
#NL
With 96 victories in the Effa Manley Division, the Brooklyn Royal Giants have an outside shot at 100 and, with a 5 game lead, Philadelphia looks to have locked up a Wild Card spot.
Houston has a clear path to the Marvin Miller Division crown on paper, with a 4 game lead and series left against the New York Gothams and the Wandering House of David. The final Wild Card spot is likely to come down to the final series of the year, with Kansas City hosting Indianapolis, although the House of David are technically still in the race.
#Player Performance
#Batters
An overpowered year on offense comes to a close. This list has been fairly constant for a while, I’ve added a 2nd list with less desirable stats as well.
Top 2 in most categories.
Lance Berkman (CLE). 279/369/645. 141 RBI. José Canseco (MCG). 256/357/716. 66 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/377/618. 196 H. Ty Cobb (DET). 384/438/828. 214 H, 65 2B, 16 3B, 148 R, 9.4 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 395/492/798. 10.7 WAR. Rickey Henderson (SFS). 248/378/421. 103 BB, 121 SB. Pete Hill (HOU). 270/345/449. 14 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 355/410/607. 67 2B. Tim Raines (OTT). 250/353/438. 111 SB. Babe Ruth (NYY). 282/416/745. 70 HR, 162 RBI, 142 R, 117 BB.
Here are some of the less positive performances. Only the leader is listed (although Dunn is 2nd in SO and Lajoie 2nd in negative WAR).
Cupid Childs (BBB). 222/343/327. Adam Dunn (IND). 207/341/468. 190 SO. Ted Kluszewski (PHI). 248/291/442. -1.5 WAR. Nap Lajoie (HOM). 232/254/407. -1.4 WAR. Manny Machado (BAL). 240/284/518. 24 GIDP. Mickey Mantle (NYY). 254/367/588. 214 SO. Doug Rader (LAA). 242/299/455. 24 GIDP.
This list is interesting, honestly. Childs’ OBP and Dunn’s power hide other clear faults, and it’s surprising that WAR sees Kluszewksi as that bad. Mantle is obviously the best of this group.
#Pitchers
#Starters
As it has been for most of the seasion, this list continues to be dominated by 3 names: A. Rube Foster, Luis Padrón, and Toad Ramsey. I’ve added some usage stats (GS, IP) to help fill out the picture as the season winds down, and, as with the batters, a 2nd list for some less desirable leaders (Hardie Henderson could be on both, given 18 wins and his league-leading walks number).
Top 2 in most categories.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 11-7, 3.27. .187 BA, .217 BABIP, 1.01 WHIP. Ron Guidry (NYY). 11-7, 4.51. 251 K. Hardie Henderson (IND). 18-12, 3.78. 98 BB. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 18-5, 3.76. José Méndez (MCG). 13-5, 4.47. 35 GS. Luis Padrón (IND). 23-3, 3.20. 228 IP, 7.0 WAR. Andy Pettitte (NYY). 18-8, 4.26. Eddie Plank (SFS). 19-7, 4.46. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 16-10, 3.23. 223 IP, 282 K, .182 BA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.39 FIP, 7.9 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 9-10, 3.84. .222 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 12-12, 3.87. 3.58 FIP.
Gerrit Cole (LAA). 7-15, 6.45. Walter Johnson (POR). 13-11, 4.10. 91 BB. Christy Mathewson (NYG). 7-15, 5.58. 36 GS.
#Relievers
Top 2 in most stats, top 3 in saves. 35 Min IP for rate stats.
Rod Beck (SFS). 4-4, 5.09. 39 Sv, 1 H. Bruce Chen (BBB). 2-4, 6.71. 4 Sv, 11 H, 67 G. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 1-3, 4.93. 17 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 3-3, 3.12. 37 Sv. Eddie Guardado (KCM). 2-3, 2.27. 2 Sv, 10 H. Bob Howry (PHI). 4-1, 3.32. 24 Sv, 0.89 WHIP. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-7, 5.81. 1 Sv, 20 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 8-4, 3.52. 33 Sv. Andrew Miller (MEM). 7-8, 4.42. 4 Sv, 12 H, 71 G. Akinori Otsuka (CAG/BBB). 8-3, 2.26. 7 Sv, 5 H. Lee Smith (KCM/HOD). 4-2, 2.75. 6 Sv, 12 H, 0.76 WHIP.
This week we have more playoff updates, and a look at the best rookies so far this year.
#Awards
Freddie Freeman is immediately showing he belongs at this level for Los Angeles, with the recent acquisition earning the AL Player of the Week Award, hitting .579 for the week with 4 homeruns. Over in the NL, Brooklyn‘s Duke Snider took home the Player of the Week with a .600 (!) average and 5 homers.
So, barring some real drama, the only race here is between the Spiders and the Black Yankees for playoff seeding.
#NL
The Effa Manley is a bit of a mirror of the Cum Posey, with the Brooklyn Royal Giants playing out the string, riding a 15.5 game lead over second place Philadelphia, with the Stars currently the highest ranked Wild Card team as well.
And then it gets messy.
Houston has surged in front of the Kansas City Monarchs, with the Colt 45’s leading the Marvin Miller Division by 2.5 games now. However, 3 more teams (Indianapolis, Homestead, and the House of David) are within 2.5 games of the final Wild Card spot, with Birmingham and the New York Gothams only 4 games back. All of that means that only the Ottawa Mounties (5.5 games off the Wild Card, but having 5 teams in the way) have really given up on the season.
#Player Performance
#Batters
It’s late in the year, so there is less churn in these lists. Let’s focus on the races that are still up for grabs.
Ty Cobb‘s lead in most categories is significant, but his 15 triples is only ahead of Houston’s Pete Hill by 1, with Bullet Joe Rogan and Turkey Stearns staying close with 13 each.
Miami’s José Canseco is holding onto the homerun lead with 62. He’s trailed by 2 Black Yankees: Babe Ruth with 59 and Lou Gehrig with 56.
Rickey Henderson is ahead of Ottawa’s Tim Raines by 3 in the stolen base race, 108 to 105.
Top 2 in most categories.
Ron Blomberg (CLE). 279/346/639. 129 RBI. José Canseco (MCG). 251/357/717. 62 HR. Ty Cobb (DET). 382/436/827. 195 H, 59 2B, 15 3B, 135 R, 8.6 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 395/493/791. 9.7 WAR. Rickey Henderson (SFS). 248/376/431. 95 BB, 108 SB. Joe Jackson (CAG). 354/407/611. 64 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 269/402/694. 59 HR, 139 RBI, 125 R, 104 BB.
In the less glorious stats, sitting on 197, the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle is guaranteed to top 200 strikeouts on the season.
#Pitchers
Luis Padrón continues to totally dominate, winning his 20th and 21st game over the past week. Sitting at 21-3, Padrón has been the best starter in the league for most of the season. With only a few weeks left, it’s possible nobody else reaches 20 victories, but we’ve listed all 5 of the other hurlers with at least 16 wins.
A couple active streaks of note: José Rijo, Padrón’s teammate on the Indianapolis ABC’s, hasn’t allowed a run in 21 innings, and Brooklyn’s Sandy Koufax is riding a streak of 10 innings without giving up a hit.
#Starters
On the one hand, this list could be 3 names long: A. Rube Foster, Padrón, and Toad Ramsey.
Top 2 in most categories.
Roger Clemens (HOU). 16-9, 3.61. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 10-6, 3.21. .187 BA, .211 BABIP, 0.99 WHIP. Ron Guidry (NYY). 9-7, 4.29. 232 K. Bump Hadley (SFS). 16-5, 4.15. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 17-5, 3.87. José Méndez (MCG). 12-5, 4.37. 206 IP. Luis Padrón (IND). 21-3, 3.34. 205 IP, 6.2 WAR. Andy Pettitte (NYY). 17-8, 4.19. Eddie Plank (SFS). 17-7, 4.55. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 15-9, 3.18. 248 K, .181 BA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 7.4 WAR. Fernando Valenzuela (BRK). 13-5, 3.60. 1 Sv, 4 H, .220 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 12-11, 3.87. 3.69 FIP.
#Relievers
Top 2 in most stats, top 3 in saves and holds. 30 Min IP for rate stats, which allows the debut of the amazing start to Bartolo Colón‘s career for Homestead.
Rod Beck (SFS). 4-4, 4.93. 36 Sv, 1 H. Bartolo Colón (HOM). 1-0, 0.87. 1 H, 0.84 WHIP. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-3, 5.40. 16 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 2-3, 2.60. 33 Sv. Eddie Guardado (KCM). 2-2, 2.20. 1 Sv, 9 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-7, 5.14. 1 Sv, 20 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 8-4, 3.48. 32 Sv. BJ Ryan (OTT). 2-3, 4.64. 1 Sv, 16 H. Lee Smith (KCM). 4-2, 2.79. 6 Sv, 12 H, 0.77 WHIP.
#Injuries
A huge one: Chicago‘s Frank Thomas is out for 8-9 months with a knee injury. The Big Hurt is expected to make a full recovery, but this really will impact the American Giants’ offseason plans, as they will need a 1B for the first half of next season.
Josh Gibson of the Homestead Grays hit .409 last week–which barely moved his overall batting average of .408. That, along with 5 homers and 12 RBIs earned him the NL Player of the Week Award. In the AL, one of the surprising cogs in the Detroit Wolverines‘ machine, Juan Beníquez, earned the Award, hitting .423 with 3 homers.
#Team Performance
More of the same.
San Francisco is riding a 9-1 streak, improving their winning percentage to .648, easily the best in the WBL. They lead the Cum Posey Division by 17 games over Miami.
In the Effa Manley Division, the surprising Brooklyn Royal Giants are extending their edge over Homestead, now leading the Grays by 5.5 games.
But the other 2 divisions are building to be close races: in the Bill James Division, the New York Black Yankees continue to struggle, falling to the 3rd best record in the league and only leading Cleveland by a single game. And, in the Marvin Miller Division, while the Kansas City Monarchs are in first, both Indianapolis and Houston sit only 1.5 games back.
Baltimore, despite better showings as of late, continue to hold the worst record in the league at .429.
#Player Performance
#Batters
Remember when we were talking about Tony Gwynn and Ty Cobb competing to hit .400? They now sit roughly 40 points behind Josh Gibson, leading the universe with a .408 average. Offensively, the league revolves around three players: Gibson, Cobb, and Babe Ruth. And Ruth’s exploits are even more impressive when you consider his .285 average.
But, for now, Gibson stands alone, leading in all 3 slash categories.
As always, top 3 in most stats with the leaders in bold.
Ron Blomberg (CLE). 255/370/668. 40 HR, 105 RBI. José Canseco (MCG). 255/370/717. 44 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 342/385/641. 136 H, 12 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 369/421/794. 136 H, 41 2B, 86 R, 5.8 WAR. Kal Daniels (LAA). 332/431/640. Josh Gibson (HOM). 408/503/809. 102 RBI, 88 R, 7.2 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 360/398/574. 138 H. Joe Jackson (CAG). 358/409/587. 47 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 319/388/569. 40 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 285/420/751. 49 HR, 113 RBI, 98 R, 81 BB, 6.0 WAR. Ted Williams (MEM). 312/429/656. 770 BB.
Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson are in a see-saw battle for the SB lead, with Raines currently on top , 78-73. See below for some more on speed in the league …
#Pitchers
#Starters
San Francisco’s big three is just humming along. Bump Hadley and Eddie Plank are the only hurlers with 15 wins, and Lefty Grove has 13. Only Indianapolis’ Luis Padrón (14) and Houston’s Toad Ramsey (13) have that many.
Ramsey or Kansas City’s A. Rube Foster are probably the best overall starters in the league right now, but we’ll see how August plays out.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 7-3, 2.66. 0.96 WHIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 13-4, 3.92. 170 K. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-7, 4.16. 187 K. Bump Hadley (SFS). 15-4, 3.64. José Méndez (MCG). 9-5, 4.38. 0.99 WHIP. Luis Padrón (IND). 14-3, 3.58. 3.60 FIP, 4.6 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 15-5, 4.02. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 13-7, 3.04. 190 K, 0.96 WHIP, 3.07 FIP, 6.1 WAR. Jim Whitney (MCG). 6-3, 3.10. 1 Sv, 2 H. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 9-9, 3.62. 3.59 FIP, 4.5 WAR.
#Relievers
Brooklyn’s Eric Gagne is probably the league’s dominant closer, but some of the hurlers whose role has been more fluid–notably the Gothams’ Robb Nen and the Black Yankees’ Goose Gossage–have perhaps been more valuable.
23 IP Min.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.72. 26 Sv. Eric Gagne (BRK). 2-1, 2.93. 21 Sv. Goose Gossage (NYY). 3-3, 2.02. 122 Sv, 8 H. Eddie Guardado (KCM). 2-1, 2.02. 1 Sv, 7 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-6, 5.35. 1 Sv, 14 H. Ted Kennedy (PHI). 2-2, 3.83. 4 Sv, 12 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 6-3, 3.65. 25 Sv. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.88. 10 Sv, 9 H.
#Steals and Speed
Seemed a good time to check in on some oddities in running the bases.
Let’s start with some players who perhaps should be running a bit less, led by the New York Gothams‘ recently acquired Don Buford, who has 21 steals, but has been caught 20 times. Houston’s Craig Biggio has been even worse, with only 10 steals in 26 attempts. Chicago‘s Eddie Collins has been gunned down 23 times, but has 45 swipes: not a great success rate, but far ahead of Buford and Biggio.
San Francisco’s Rickey Henderson has been caught the most times in the league, but with 73 steals against 25 caught stealings, his success rate remains decent.
On the other end of the scale, Indianapolis’ Bob Bescher has only been caught 10 times in 53 attempts; Kansas City’s Ozzie Smith is doing even better, with an 84% success rate (42 for 50 so far); and the Black Yankees’ Eric Davis has gone 37 for 42.
Ottawa‘s Carlos Beltrán has been thrown out only once in 26 tries but, interestingly, nobody with at least 5 steals has a perfect record on the basepaths.
#Injury Report
A big week, led by Chicago perhaps finally getting some insight into Tricky Nichols‘ year-long struggles, as last year’s ace will miss 4 or 5 months with a shoulder ailment.
Detroit and Homestead both may have some help for their pitching staffs on the way, as Buddy Napier and Joakim Soria should start rehab assignments this week for the Wolverines while Cliff Lee and Doug Drabek should do so for the Grays.
Memphis‘ Dobie Moore, the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti, and the House of David‘s Anthony Rizzo should also find their way back this week.
The Mounties were awful last season. At 4 games under .500, they’re unlikely to make the playoffs, but they are a far better team this year, easily one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league … but still with one of the worst staffs around. So there’s that.
Odd how much optimism can be generated by a team whose record isn’t very good.
THE OFFENSE
It’s all good here, end to end. When the only offensive black hole is your backup catcher, your offense is doing OK. Ten–TEN–Mounties are in double digit homeruns, from Tim Raines at 14 to Larry Walker‘s 38.
#What’s Going Right
Gary Carter and Larry Walker are among the best in the league at their positions, with Walker leading the team in HR and RBI.
Roberto Alomar has blossomed, and leas the team in H with an OPS in the .950s, which is incredibly strong for a middle infielder. His partner at SS, Álex Rodríguez, has finally begun to deliver on his promise, validating Ottawa’s decision to retain him last season.
The rest of the lineup is solid, with everyone delivering OPS’ between .800 and .850. It’s a fairly consistent model–mediocre BAs, a decent OBP, and a ton of power. Tim Raines–2nd in the WBL in SB by 1 at 68–is the exception to the model, but his value remains clear.
Special mention has to be made of Rick Monday. Not really thought of as a significant prospect, Monday has flourished, slashing 302/385/755 closing in on 200 PAs. A CF by trade, Monday’s future is uncertain as his current performance clearly exceeds a role as Carlos Beltrán‘s backup, but with Walker in RF and Raines in LF, it’s not clear where he can move to.
#What’s Not Going Right
Brad Ausmus has already announced his retirement at the end of the season. He’s being kept around for his, um, veteran leadership at this point.
I mean … that’s about it. Bob Watson struggled and was sent to AAA, and Mike Dorgan is back to being a useful utility player instead of a world-beater.
It’s been a good year at the plate in Ottawa so far. However …
THE PITCHING
Yoikes. Yoikes, yoikes, and yoikes.
#What’s Going Right
Roy Halladay continues to tantalize, showing flashes of ace-ish potential. Halladay sits at 10-6 with an ERA under 5.00, and has yet to put it all together for an extended length of time, but the potential is there.
Bill Smith has pitched excellently when healthy, sitting at 8-2 with a 3.225 ERA.
Atlee Hammaker struggled initially, but has pitched very well out of the bullpen, far better than his 6+ ERA would indicate.
Old Hoss Radbourn continues to oscillate between excellence and … other things. At worst, he’s a solid innings eater.
#What’s Not Going Right
Nobody else has succeeded as a starter, and the back 3 spots in the rotation have essentially been a revolving door, a situation that has surely been hurt by Bob Brown, Bob Moose, and Gary Peters all being on the DL for extended lengths of time (Moose and Peters are out well into next year). The whole staff has been mediocre at best, but there are some lowlights …
Randy Johnson is … perhaps the most frustrating bundle of talent in the WBL? Johnson has been sent to the minors after struggling mightily, but the Mounties hope he returns soon. Ish.
Tom Henke came back from a long term injury to provide an ERA over 7.00 in the closer role.
Jesse Crain, who looked promising initially, is on the verge of being sent back down as his ERA has ballooned over 7.00.
There might be help here, but there isn’t much high end talent. As an example, Otto Briggs, Warren Cromartie, Willie Upshaw, Leon Roberts, and Denard Span could all see time, but all are in A ball. Wee Willie Keeler is closer, and perhaps likely to make an impact.
But the Mounties need arms … and there’s just not a ton there. Dan Haren, Mark Eichhorn, Max Scherzer, and Billy Koch all have live arms, but are all at A ball.
WHAT’S NEEDED
The bottom of the lineup to step forward, and the pitching overall to improve a shade across the board.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
Can the staff both deliver and stay healthy? No.
Who is the bullpen? Who the hell knows.
How the young talent sorts itself out. This one is working out OK. Walker, Carter, Raines, Staub, and Rodríguez are all 23 or younger.
FEATURED SERIES
The Mounties host Homestead for 3 to start the week.
Projected Starters
Homestead’s starter listed first.
Francisco Liriano (6-7, 5.24) @ Roy Halladay (10-6, 4.60) Doug Drabek (4-5, 4.89) @ Bill Smith (8-2, 3.25) Cliff Lee (5-2, 6.00) @ Johnny Podgagny (3-3, 4.61)
If the starters take their spots as planned, this may be the rare chance for the Mounties to rely on their mound work. If that happens, I think they take 2 out of 3.
Before this series began, the Mounties named Atlee Hammaker to the 5th spot in their rotation, although it’s not clear when his turn will come around.
Game One
Turns out Atlee Hammaker‘s turn is immediately available, with Roy Halladay not quite recovered from his prior outing. He’ll face Homestead’s Francisco Liriano, who has pitched very well of late, in this one.
The legend of Josh Gibson just continues … Homestead’s offensive juggernaut took Hammaker deep in the first with Judy Johnson on to give the Grays an early 2-0 lead. Tim Raines started the game for Ottawa with a solo shot, halving the deficit and then Larry Walker launched his 39th of the year, tying the game at 2.
Hammaker allows 2 baserunners in the 2nd, but he got out of it, having gotten 5 of the 6 outs in the game so far via the strikeout. Liriano is faring worse: Adrián Beltré launched a solo shot in the 2nd, and the Mounties scored another on a hit from Sam Thompson.
But Gibson and Rick Reichardt launched back to back shots in the 3rd, tying the game once again until, in the 4th, Willie Stargell hit his 29th, giving the Grays a 5-4 lead. That was it for Hammaker–4 innings and 7 K’s, but also 4 homeruns allowed.
Bryn Smith allowed a hit to Johnson, and then Gibson did it once again–his 3rd homerun of the game, launched to deep center.
Liriano made it into the 6th, but hits from Thompson and Mike Dorgan chased him.
Gibson had a chance to become the first player in WBL history to hit 4 out in a game, but had to settle for a double off the CF wall.
But there was one more twist in the game: with 2 runners on in the bottom of the 9th, Ottawa turned to Rick Monday who continued his shocking campaign with a 3-run shot off Michael Jackson to tie the game at 7. That was followed by Dorgan’s 2nd homer of the game, and Ottawa had seized the lead, which they doubled on a an RBI double from Beltrán.
So, the top of the 9th was set, with Ottawa’s closer Tom Henke destined to face Gibson. Homestead is hard to close out: Andy Van Slyke led off the inning with a homerun. Johnson may have shown his youth, getting thrown out at send trying to stretch a single into a double–an especially poor choice, given Gibson being the next batter.
Henke was very careful, and while it won’t go down as an intentional walk, it was as close as can be. Henke wrapped 2 strikeouts around a hit batsman, closing out the game for a surprising win for Ottawa.
Gibson was clearly magnificent, but Johnson and Stargell added 3 hits each, while Mike Epstein whiffed 5 times for the Grays. 11 homeruns in the game highlighted the challenge both teams have with their staffs.
HOM 8 (Jackson 1-5, 5 B Sv; Kemmerer 2 H) @ OTT 9 (Crain 1-2; Henke 9 Sv) HRs: HOM – Gibson 3 (29), Reichardt (26), Stargell (20), Van Slyke (12); OTT – Raines (15), Walker (39), Beltré (24), Monday (22), Dorgan (2). Box Score
Game Two
Game 2 will see Roy Halladay face off against Homestead’s Doug Drabek.
These teams cannot stop hitting the ball out of the park. Homestead’s Mike Epstein and Rick Reichardt went back-to-back in the top of the first.
Drabek had to leave the game in the 3rd with back tightness, bringing in newly promoted Bartolo Colón for his WBL debut. Colón gave up a seeing-eye 2 run single to Gary Carter that tied the game at 3, but Owen Wilson launched his 2nd of the year to put the Grays back on top, 5-3.
Both bullpens locked in at that point: Colón was followed by Rick Ownbey and Ricardo Rincón, turning the ball over to closer Josh Lindblom for the bottom of the 9th. But this Ottawa team is tough: Carter greeted Lindblom with his 35th homer of the year, making it a 1 run game.
Rusty Staub managed a bloop hit, and was replaced at first by Tim Raines, representing the tying run. Raines stole 2nd (his 70th of the year, giving him, at least for the moment, the league lead) and moved to 3rd on a groundout from Carlos Beltrán. A single from Adrián Beltré tied the game, and off to extra innings we went.
Andy Van Slyke walked, stole second, and move to 3rd on a single form Judy Johnson. Josh Gibson was plunked by Clark Griffith to load the bases. Griffith walked in a run, but that was it, and Homestead stuck with Lindblom for the bottom of the 10th. Despite an error in the frame, Lindblom closed out the game.
HOM 6 (Lindblom 5-3, 3 B Sv; Ownbey 5 H; Rincón 2 H) @ OTT 5 (Gregg 0-3) HRs: HOM – Reichardt (27), Epstein (27), Wilson (2); OTT – Carter (35). Box Score
After the game, Homestead moved Drabek to the DL, recalling Brickyard Kennedy from AAA.
Game Three
So, 2 one-run games and an even split.
The rubber match would see Homestead’s Cliff Lee take on Ottawa’s Bill Smith–which should be a fairly significant edge for the Mounties.
And yet … Andy Van Slyke led the game off with homer against Smith for an early 1-0 lead for the Grays. In the 4th, a double from Honus Wagner, a homer from Napoleon Lajoie, and RBI singles from Josh Gibson and Rick Reichardt made it 6-0 and chased Smith.
The Mounties finally got on the board when Tim Raines stole home (!) for his 72nd swipe of the season.
But Lee was dealing until he was forced from the game in the 7th through injury. At that point, he had a -1 lead, having surrendered only 2 hits. Ray Brown replaced Lee and gave up 2 runs, but the Grays were still up, 7-3 heading into the final 2 frames.
In the bottom of the 9th, Sam Thompson knocked in 2, closing the game to 7-5. The Mounties sent up Rick Monday as a pinch-hitter–could the legend grow? Temporarily, at least! Monday greeted Michael Jackson with a double, making it a 1-run game, 7-6.
Jackson walked Raines … and gave up a walk-off, 3 run shot to Roberto Alomar, as Ottawa once again rode their offense to a win, both for the game and the series.
HOM 7 (Jackson 1-6, 6 B Sv) @ OTT 9 (Smith, Bry 1-1) HRs: HOM – Van Slyke (13), Lajoie (8); OTT – Alomar (22). Box Score
In many ways, this is who Ottawa is: can they hold on by their fingernails on the mound until they find a way to score more runs than you. They hit 7 homers in the 5 games, and Tim Raines swiped 5 bases.
Some recognition does need to go to Josh Gibson, who finished the 3 game series with 3 homers, 7 RBI’s and 6 hits in 10 ABs.
Philadelphia was bad last year. This year, they are pushing towards .500 with–maybe, just maybe–an outside shot at the playoffs. As importantly, they seem to have an identity for the first time.
The Stars clearly need to keep adding talent: the gap between the leaders of the team–Aaron Judge, Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, Hardie Henderson–and the end of the roster is just too great. But it’s a start.
THE OFFENSE
Philadelphia’s problem, simply, is its offense. They don’t hit for average, they don’t get on base, and they don’t hit for power. Not sure what else there is … they do run the bases decently.
#What’s Going Right
Aaron Judge, an extra part in the Bill Dickey/Mike Schmidt trade, has absolutely exploded on the scene, with an OPS just under 1.00 and leading the team in HR and RBI.
Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan is far better offensively than anticipated, sporting the 2nd highest OPS on the team and leading the Stars in SLG at .615 and BA at .295. Rogan is playing all over the place, but seeing most of his time in the OF.
Scott Rolen leads the team in WAR with an OPS around .950.
At 37, Rico Carty is still useful. He can’t move, can’t field much, but he can hit, even with occasional power.
#What’s Not Going Right
Everything else?
C continues to be a black hole, with Mike Scioscia slightly more effective than Butch Wynegar and Sherm Lollar.
Willie Davis, a leader on the team last year, is slashing 233/290/373 this season, which is quite a plummet.
Ted Kluszewski has a little power, but little else: a SLG barely over .400 just won’t cut it.
But Kluszewski’s OPS is over 100 points higher than Jimmy Rollins, who has essentially lost the job to Art Fletcher.
While Rogan is doing unprecedented things as a 2-way player, JM Ward is not, to the point the team has decided they have better options at DH when he’s on the mound.
THE PITCHING
And now the good news.
#What’s Going Right
The starting pitching is strong, led by Hardie Henderson, who is 10-6 with a 3.05 ERA at the break.
Rogan and JM Ward don’t have great records (5-8 for Rogan, 4-4 for Ward), but they’ve got fantastic peripherals led by Ward’s 1.05 WHIP.
Behind them, Steve Carlton has been solid enough.
Fred Cambria, Ted Kennedy, and Brad Kilby have been fantastic getting the ball to Bob Howry. That trio has 7 saves and 21 holds, and Howry has a 0.82 WHIP and a dozen saves.
#What’s Not Going Right
The back end of the rotation is still a bit rough. Ray Collins is in the 5th spot now, but neither he nor Robin Roberts nor Larry Jackson have really seized the opportunity.
There is hope for the future here. I mean, prospects flame out and all that, but there is hope.
Bill Gatewood is the highest ranked prospect, and probably the best arm in the system, but Jack Kralick, Jack Easton, LaTroy Hawkins, and perhaps even Scott Garrelts and Luke Weaver all have some upside.
Bill Dickey is likely to be recalled at the all star break and Harmon Killebrew and Bobby Abreu will probably see time with the Stars this year as well. Behind them, it does thin out a little, but Richie Ashburn, Andrew Payne, and Prince Fielder all have significant value.
WHAT’S NEEDED
The offense to become league average or better, preferably led by some of the prospects stepping forward. And, of course, the pitching to not regress.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
What does the bullpen look like? Fairly well answered, as most teams would welcome the combined performance of Kennedy, Cambria, Kilby, and Howry.
How does the OF resolve, and most importantly how much of Aaron Judge‘s debut performance was a mirage? The latter first: very little, evidently. This remains a question, but not as anticipated–the Stars never anticipated CF being an open question, but with Willie Davis’ loss of form, it is.
Can the flashes of talent on the IF shown last year from Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh deliver over a full season? Yoikes. No, no they cannot; in fact, neither is in the WBL and SS continues to be a bit of a mess.
FEATURED SERIES
Philadelphia opens the second half of the season with 3 games at Ottawa.
Projected Starters
Philadelphia’s starter listed first.
Steve Carlton (7-9, 5.62) @ Old Hoss Radbourn (9-6, 6.13) Charles Rogan (5-8, 4.46) @ Roy Halladay (8-6, 4.92) Ray Collins (2-4, 5.08) @ Bill Smith (6-2, 3.57)
Game One
Both teams are in an odd spot where their #1 starter is not their best, with the opening game matching Steve Carlton against Old Hoss Radbourn.
The much-maligned Willie Davis led the game off with a solo shot to right, giving the Stars a 1-0 lead. Tim Raines matched him, leading off the bottom of the frame with his 12th homer of the year to tie the game. Rusty Staub took Carlton deep with a runner on in the 2nd, but Carlton induced an inning-ending double play from Roberto Alomar to limit the damage.
After Davis doubled in the 3rd, Aaron Judge went deep to tie the game, then, in the 5th Davis (who has been stung by the criticism, it must be said) homered again.
Larry Walker tied it up with a 2-out double in the bottom of the 5th, but the Stars broke the deadlock immediately, as Judge tripled and Rico Carty chased Radbourn from the game with an RBI double.
Carlton got the first out in the 7th, but his relief, Ted Kennedy, was greeted with a solo shot from Adrián Beltré to once again tie the contest. Kennedy–helped by Art Fletcher gunning down Raines at home and the just-recalled Bill Dickey throwing out Alomar on a steal attempt–got out of the inning without further damage.
George Hendrick hit a 2-run shot in the 8th: 7-5 Stars. But it was never going to be that easy: Gary Carter sent a Brad Kilby pitch over the wall in left with Walker on, tying us up once again.
It ended with a walkoff dinger, of course: Alomar taking Pedro Feliciano deep in the bottom of the 9th.
Davis and Judge had 3 hits for the Stars.
PHI 7 (Feliciano 0-1; Kennedy 6 BSv; Kilby 2 BSv) @ OTT 9 (Ryan 2-2) HRs: PHI – Davis 2 (8), Judge (27), Hendrick (9); OTT – Raines (12), Staub (15), Carter (32), Alomar (19). Box Score
Game Two
The Stars gave Hardie Henderson the start in game 2; he would face the Mounties’ Roy Halladay.
Gary Carter hit his 33rd of the year in the bottom of the first, putting the Mounties up, 2-0, and an RBI double from Álex Rodríguez made it 3-0 in the 2nd, and then the miracle of Rick Monday continued: his 21st homer of the year increased the lead to 4-0.
Jimmy Rollins‘ 1st homer of the year made it 4-1.
Henderson was chased from the game in the 5th by a 2-run shot from Roberto Alomar and an RBI double from Rusty Staub. He was relieved by Robin Roberts who gave up an RBI single to Monday before getting out of the inning with Ottawa ahead, 8-1.
There was some more: homers by Ted Kluszewski and Adrian Beltré, some other stuff. But the outcome was never in doubt, as the Mounties rolled, 14-3.
Monday had 4 hits and 4 RBIs.
PHI 3 (Henderson 10-7) @ OTT 14 (Halladay 9-6) HRs: PHI – Rollins (1), Kluszewski (12); OTT – Carter (33), Monday (21), Alomar (20), Beltré (23). Box Score
Game Three
Trying to salvage a game, the Stars would send out J.M. Ward to face Ottawa’s Bill Smith. Ward was recently removed from being used as DH when he pitched: we’ll see if being able to focus solely on his mound duties changes anything for Philadelphia.
The game was scoreless through 5, with Smith allowing 3 hits and Ward only 1. Rusty Staub broke the deadlock in the bottom of the 7th, touching Ward for a 2-run homerun.
Aaron Judge hit his 28th in the top of the 9th, ending Smith’s shutout bid, but, after a single by Ted Kluszewski, Ottawa’s closer, Tom Henke, was able to retire Rico Carty on a popout to center.
Ward was once again a hard luck loser, pitching 7 strong innings.
Not good. Not only were the Stars swept, they were outscored 26-11. Still, for Philadelphia, it’s all about next year, so there will be bruises in the process.
For each section, if a player doesn’t qualify for batting stats (roughly 270 PA), their G and PA are listed. Bold indicates a leader at that position for the stat; top 3 listed for most stats.
If you compare this with the prior post discussing the AL, the gap in offensive talent and pitching depth becomes apparent.
#C
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson (HOM)
1.234
390/481/754
27 2B; 23 HR; 79 RBI; 5.3 WAR
3.4 FRM
Gary Carter (OTT)
1.102
324/387/715
31 HR; 663 RBI; 3.9 WAR
48% RTO
Mike Piazza (BRK)
1.027
311/348/679
31 HR; 70 RBI; 2.9 WAR
Jim Pagliaroni (BBB)
.898
248/355/543
Buster Posey (NYG)
.894
291/344/550
Ted Simmons (KCM)
.880
285/314/565
25 2B
4.08 CERA
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The only question here is whether the NL dips below the big 3. 21 Year old Josh Gibson will start, of course, with Gary Carter and Mike Piazza in reserve.
#1B
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Will Clark (NYG)
.989
302/381/608
56 RBI; 1.8 WAR
Mike Epstein (HOM)
.971
252/386/585
22 HR; 63 RBI; 1.7 WAR
.998 Fldg
Anthony Rizzo (HOD)
.964
278/402/561
Joe Harris (HOD)
.956
295/410/546
Jeff Bagwell (HOU)
.938
279/376/562
71 RBI
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
The NL has a totally different challenge to the AL: here, it is whether any of the natural 1B really deserve to make the team. Will Clark will start, with Mike Epstein on the bench. Joe Harris split his time between 1B and the OF, and may be selected in that role.
#2B
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan (IND)
1.101
324/425/676
50 RBI; 2.2 WAR
52 G / 221 PA
Roberto Alomar (OTT)
.972
312/391/581
22 2B; 18 HR; 65 RBI; 31 SB; 3.3 WAR
Ryne Sandberg (HOD)
.964
303/356/608
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.7 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.04 RF
Jackie Robinson (BRK)
.897
270/357/540
17 HR
Craig Biggio (HOU)
.837
267/371/466
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg are locks, with Alomar getting the nod as the starter. Beyond them, it gets interesting: Joe Morgan has been phenomenal, but missed a significant chunk of time while Jackie Robinson may deserve a spot, but has split his time between 2B and 1B. While Robinson is invaluable to Brooklyn, his offensive production is excellent for a 2B, but only solid for a 1B.
#SS
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks (HOD)
1.006
287/316/690
34 HR; 78 RBI; 1.7 WAR
Carlos Correa (HOU)
.931
322/396/535
20 2B; 13 HR; 40 RBI; 3.1 WAR
.981 Fldg; 4.2 ZR
Álex Rodríguez (OTT)
.899
260/322/577
25 HR; 45 RBI; 20 SB; 1.5 WAR
.974 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
While some may suggest that Kansas City’s Ozzie Smith deserves to be listed here due to his defensive prowess (he leads all SS in Fldg, RF, and ZR), it’s a bit too much to imagine a sub-.700 OPS warranting an all star spot. Ernie Banks and Carlos Correa are in, with Álex Rodríguez on the bubble for a while.
#3B
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols (KCM)
1.003
314/381/622
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.5 WAR
Ron Cey (BRK)
.978
278/375/602
22 HR; 2.6 WAR
.978 Fldg; 2.46 RF; 3.5 ZR
Eddie Mathews (BBB)
.917
222/345/572
27 HR; 56 RBI
2.76 RF
Scott Rolen (PHI)
.911
275/349/562
55 RBI; 2.1 WAR
.976 Fldg; 2.6 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Albert Pujols is named the starter here (although he may end up shifting over to 1B in the game itself), with Ron Cey behind him. Eddie Mathews‘ best hope of making the cut is if he ends up being the leading candidate for Birmingham, but my guess is they find representation on the pitching staff first.
#LF/RF
As with the AL, we’ll treat the corner OF’s together.
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Larry Walker (OTT)
1.080
292/364/715
37 HR; 877 RBI; 2.5 WAR
3.97 RF
Rick Reichardt (HOM)
1.044
314/387/657
Tony Gwynn (HOU)
1.030
390/429/601
27 2B; 6 3B; 3.1 WAR
5 Kills
Aaron Judge (PHI)
.972
272/368/604
.993 Fldg
Stan Musial (KCM)
.964
329/392/573
37 2B; 2.2 WAR
5.7 ZR
Joe Rogan (PHI)
.958
296/341/617
Johnny Callison (NYG)
.913
272/333/580
.993 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Certainly Larry Walker, Rick Reichardt, and Tony Gwynn make it, with Gwynn and Walker earning the starting nods. It seems like Aaron Judge and Stan Musial should make the cut as well, and Rogan gets a roster spot for his combined effort on the mound and at the plate.
#CF
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday (OTT)
1.207
305/397/809
46 G / 151 PA
Oscar Charleston (IND)
1.006
335/384/622
19 2B; 9 3B; 63 RBI; 25 SB; 2.7 WAR
Willie Mays (NYG)
.974
277/347/627
31 HR; 62 RBI; 3.1 WAR
8.5 ZR
Carlos Beltrán (OTT)
.860
253/326/534
63 RBI
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Rick Monday can’t be a serious candidate, given his playing time, but wow are those numbers eye-popping.
Oscar Charleston gets the start at age 20, with Willie Mays also being named to the team. Carlos Beltrán is listed partially to show the gap between Mays and the next group of CFers. Rogan could also have been listed here.
#DH
Name
OPS
Slash
Reg Stats
Willie Stargell (HOM)
.954
270/348/606
14 2B; 27 HR; 60 RBI; 1.2 WAR
Albert Belle (BBB)
.884
256/313/571
15 2B; 26 HR; 59 RBI
Benny Kauff (NYG)
.869
261/315/553
19 2B
Duke Snider (BRK)
.771
226/262/509
25 HR; 54 RBI
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Willie Stargell will start, but it’s not clear any of the rest of these make it: Mathews is a better selection for Birmingham if one is needed, and Benny Kauff and Duke Snider–while doing well–just aren’t quite all star material this year.
#SP
Now things get a lot tighter in the NL. Here is everyone with a sub 4.00 ERA and/or 10 or more wins, plus a few others.
Name
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
5-1, 2.20
.202 BABIP, 0.96 WHIP, 3.67 FIP
88% QS, 2 SHO
Toad Ramsey (HOU)
12-4, 2.60
163 K, 0.90 WHIP, 2.68 FIP, 5.8 WAR
72% QS, 2 SHO, 2.29 SIERA, 2.0 WPA
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
6-1, 2.66
0.87 WHIP; .176 BABIP
3 GS / 74 IP
Hardie Henderson (PHI)
10-6, 3.05
.214 BABIP
1.5 WPA
Jim Whitney
5-2, 3.11
1 Sv; 2 H, 1.02 WHIP
75% QS, 2.0 WPA
Roger Clemens (HOU)
10-4, 3.64
.210 BABIP
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
7-8, 3.64
3.4 WAR
Orel Hershiser (BRK)
11-4, 3.70
Luis Padrón (IND)
12-2, 3.87
3.44 FIP, 3.8 WAR
2 SHO
Smokey Joe Wood (KCM)
9-6, 3.95
J.M. Ward (PHI)
4-4, 3.99
Frank Castillo (KCM)
10-1, 4.43
2 SHO
Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI)
5-8, 4.46
2 SHO
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | BABIP = BA Allowed on Balls In Play | QS = Quality Starts | SHO = Shutouts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Toad Ramsey is the starter, with Luis Padrón and A. Rube Foster close behind. Hardie Henderson seems to be another required choice, with his ERA barely eclipsing 3.00.
After that choices, have to be made: Jim Whitney has been brilliant, but just barely qualifies for the ERA title. Fernando Valenzuela has been even better, but was used out of the bullpen for most of the season. And how do you ignore a starting pitcher with a 10-1 record? I don’t think you can, so we’ll add Valenzuela and Castillo, snubbing Brooklyn’s very strong duo of Orel Hershiser and Smokey Joe Williams.
#RP
Name
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Harley Young (BBB)
0-1, 1.12
3 Sv; 6 H
1.87 FIP
Craig Kimbrel (KCM)
2-3, 1.85
2 Sv; 11 H
2.38 FIP; 15 SD; 2.88 SIERA
Robb Nen (NYG)
3-2, 1.89
9 Sv; 6 H
Tug McGraw (HOU)
3-3, 2.05
9 Sv
.90 Sv%
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
2-1, 2.05
1 Sv; 5 H
2.58 FIP
Lee Smith (HOD)
4-1, 2.65
6 Sv; 6 H
.198 BABIP; 0.771 WHIP; .86 Sv%; 2.89 SIERA
Eric Gagne (BRK)
2-1, 2.81
19 Sv
18 SD
Josh Lindblom (HOM)
4-2, 3.19
23 Sv
.96 Sv%; 18 SD
Ted Kennedy (PHI)
2-2, 3.47
4 Sv; 9 H
Rob Murphy (IND)
1-3, 3.55
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson (HOM)
1-4, 3.73
1 Sv; 12 H
Bob Howry (PHI)
3-1, 4.09
12 Sv
.172 BABIP; 0.82 WHIP
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | BABPI = BA Allowed on Balls In Play | SD = Shutdowns | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | Sv% = Save %
More hard choices. Harley Young and Craig Kimbrel have been essentially unhittable and Eric Gagne and Josh Lindblom have been the most effective closers. So those 4 for sure. Robb Nen has done everything the Gothams have asked, covering as closer while Brian Wilson was injured, and continuing to dominate after Wilson’s return (Wilson only misses the team through a lack of IP after his injury).
The real omission here seems to be Lee Smith, who has stepped into the closers role for the House of David with aplomb, reflected in his overall statistical performance.
#NL All Stars
It came down to Scott Rolen, Buster Posey, Smokey Joe Williams, and Jim Whitney for the NL’s final spot. We decided to honor their dominant pitching as a league, removing Rolen and Posey from consideration.
Williams has only pitched roughly a dozen innings more than Whitney, who has better numbers across the board. That leaves Smokey Joe on the outside looking in this year.
As with the AL, here are the highest ranked performers in various categories who missed the cut.
Hank Aaron (BBB). #4 in H (96); #6 in HR (29); #16 in SLG (.588). Joe Harris (HOD). #13 in BA (.295); #3 in OBP (.410); #18 in OPS (.956). Jeff Bagwell (HOU). #4 in RBI (71). Buster Posey (NYG). #13 in WAR (2.2). Nap Lajoie (HOM). #3 in 2B (28). Pete Hill (HOU). #1 in 3B (10). Tim Raines (OTT). #1 in SB (59).
Orel Hershiser (BRK). #3 in W (11). Christy Mathewson (NYG). #2 in IP (128); #2 in K (124). Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). #3 in WAR (3.4); #4 in FIP (3.73). Roger Clemens (HOU). #5 in ERA (3.64). J.M. Ward (PHI). #4 in WHIP (1.02). Rob Dibble (IND) and Jeff Pfeffer (KCM) are tied for #3 in Saves with 16, but neither have an ERA under 5.00.
The offensive players look fine. Mathewson and especially Smokey Joe have a right to feel aggrieved about this one.
Starters in bold.
C: Gary Carter (OTT), Josh Gibson (HOM); Mike Piazza (BRK). 1B: Will Clark (NYG), Mike Epstein (HOM). 2B: Roberto Alomar (OTT), Ryne Sandberg (HOD). SS: Ernie Banks (HOD), Carlos Correa (HOU). 3B: Ron Cey (BRK), Albert Pujols (KCM). LF: Tony Gwynn (HOU); Rick Reichardt (HOM). CF: Oscar Charleston (IND), Joe Rogan (PHI), Willie Mays (NYG). RF: Aaron Judge (PHI), Stan Musial (KCM), Larry Walker (OTT). DH: Willie Stargell (HOM). SP: Frank Castillo (KCM), A. Rube Foster (KCM), Hardie Henderson (PHI), Luis Padrón (IND), Toad Ramsey (HOU), Fernando Valenzuela (BRK), Jim Whitney (BBB). RP: Eric Gagne (BRK), Craig Kimbrel (KCM), Josh Lindblom (HOM), Robb Nen (NYG), Harley Young (BBB).
Selections are more consistently spread across the NL, with Homestead and Kansas City leading the way with 5 players each. All teams saw at least 2 players selected for the midsummer classic.
Brooklyn, with the best record in the league, may feel a bit hard done by, as both Smokey Joe Williams and Jackie Robinson are left off the squad. Indianapolis has a similar argument, with only 2 representatives despite being only a game out of 1st with a record over .500, but the omission of Joe Morgan due to playing time is more understandable.
Here they are by team
Homestead Grays (.535). Mike Epstein (1B), Josh Gibson (C), Josh Lindblom (P), Rick Reichardt (OF), Willie Stargell (DH). Kansas City Monarchs (.534). Frank Castillo (P), A. Rube Foster (P), Craig Kimbrel (P), Stan Musial (OF), Albert Pujols (3B). Brooklyn Royal Giants (.575). Ron Cey (3B), Eric Gagne (P), Mike Piazza (C), Fernando Valenzuela (P). New York Gothams (.494). Will Clark (1B), Willie Mays (OF), Robb Nen (P). Houston Colt 45’s (.494). Carlos Correa (SS), Tony Gwynn (OF), Toad Ramsey (P). Philadelphia Stars (.483). Hardie Henderson (P), Aaron Judge (OF), Joe Rogan (U/P). Ottawa Mounties (.460). Roberto Alomar (2B), Álex Rodríguez (SS), Larry Walker (OF). Indianapolis ABC’s (.523). Oscar Charleston (OF), Luis Padrón (P). Wandering House of David (.471). Ernie Banks (SS), Lee Smith (P). Birmingham Black Barons (.432). Harley Young (P), Jim Whitney (P).
The NL sees only 4 repeat all-stars: Mike Epstein, Josh Gibson, Willie Mays, and Stan Musial
The much maligned Pedro Guerrero had himself a day, hitting 3 homeruns and delivering the walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 11th as Brooklyn topped Birmingham, 8-7.
Beals Becker went deep twice and Fernando Valenzuela was fantastic as the Royal Giants beat the House of David, 4-1. Valenzuela improved to 6-1 with the complete game effort, allowing only 2 hits while whiffing 10.
Mike Piazza hit 2 out, giving him 33 on the year, and, in fantastically welcome news for Brooklyn, Don Drysedale put in his best start of the season as the Royal Giants topped the House of David, 9-1.
#Homestead Grays
Reliever Dave Giusti was sent to AAA, with Russ Kemmerer recalled to take his place in the bullpen.
Rick Reichardt hit two homeruns, including a grand slam, and Josh Gibson had 4 hits, raising his average to .399 as we hit the all star break. All in all, the Grays pounded out 23 hits in a 12-4 thumping of Ottawa.
#New York Gothams
Vean Gregg–called into emergency duty as a starter–turned in a great effort, combining with Mike Norris and Brian Wilson on 3-hit shutout of Ottawa. Pinky Higgins delivered all of the runs with a 3-run shot, his 9th of the year and Gregg fanned 9 in his 6+ innings of work. Norris picked up his 7th hold and Wilson his 12th save of the season.
Buster Posey hit 2 homeruns, but the Gothams fell to Ottawa, 7-5. This unfortunate pattern repeated as Larry Doyle hit his 10th and 11th of the year in an 11-9 loss to the Stars.
#Ottawa Mounties
Ottawa firmly believes in the talent of Randy Johnson. But there’s just so many unsuccessful attempts to move his ERA under 9.00 they can stomach. So they’re sending The Big Unit to AAA in hopes he can harness his immense talent. Clark Griffith–not exactly successful historically with the Mounties–was recalled. Bob Watson also headed to AAA after a mostly unsuccessful few months with Roy Sievers returning to WBL action.
The Rick Monday parade continues, with the shocking performance of the rookie continuing with 2 homeruns in a 4-1 win over the Gothams, giving him 18 on the year. As importantly for Mounties’ fans, Roy Halladay turned in a good performance, improving to 8-6, and Tom Henke picked up his 5th save of the season.
Monday did it again, hitting out 2 for 20 on the year and Gary Carter also went yard twice (giving him 30) as the Mounties beat the Gothams, 7-5.
Tim Raines–of all people–went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as Ottawa fell to Homestead, 8-5.
#Philadelphia Stars
Bullet Joe Rogan was masterful, hitting his 16th homerun and tossing a 1 hitter as the Stars beat the Gothams, 3-0. Rogan walked 1 and whiffed 8 in the complete game effort, improving his record to 5-8 on the year.
Chase Utley hit a 2-run walkoff homer in the bottom of the 10th, giving the Stars an 11-9 win over the Gothams. Scott Rolen went deep twice, and Aaron Judge, Rico Carty, Ted Kluszewski, and Mike Sciosia also sent balls over the fence.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
