Baseball The Way It Never Was

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TWIWBL 102.4: Year 3, Week 5 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Chicago American Giants18-12.600—
Portland Sea Dogs16-15.5162.5
Los Angeles Angels15-16.4843.5
Miami Cuban Giants15-16.4843.5
San Francisco Sea Lions15-16.4843.5
Cum Posey Division | 6 May

Chicago American Giants

Chino Smith hit 2 homeruns and drove in 5 in a 6-4 win over Baltimore. The second was a 3-run walk-off. Smith has 13 homeruns on the season, and is showing why he was the most highly sought after prospect in the WBL last year.

Carlton Fisk is out about 2 weeks. Rather than recall a catcher, the American Giants plan to give Jack Doyle the bulk of the starts behind the plate with Jake Stenzel being recalled from his rehab assignment. Dave Nilsson remains the backup catcher, although he will probably see some more action in Fisk’s absence.

Waite Hoyt is also down, but out for about a week. Joe Horlen is the likeliest man to see a spot start. Hoyt has been great–he did win the AL Pitcher of the Month–but Horlen has been nearly unhittable, throwing 20.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen to open the year. Mike Fiore was recalled: with Mickey Vernon struggling mightily, the American Giants turned to the 2000 star and 2001 bust of Fiore, hoping to get something out of 1B as they wait for encouraging news on Frank Thomas‘ return.

Miami Cuban Giants

Jim Whitney struck out 12 Wolverines without a walk over 7 innings, but each of the 4 hits he allowed left the yard. Miami won it anyway, 6-5, on Gary Sheffield‘s walk-off double in the 9th. Robin Yount hit 2 solo homeruns in the game.

Cole Hamels then struck out 10 the following afternoon, but Miami fell 3-1 to Detroit.

Whitney did it again in his next start: 6 innings, 3 hits, 10 strikeouts in a 5-1 win over Los Angeles.

Julio Rodríguez is back off the disabled list after 3 weeks, with Mark Kotsay going back to Orlando. Kotsay started hot, but ended up with an OPS barely over .500 in his initial WBL trial.

Alejandro Oms has begun a rehab assignment, meaning the Cuban Giants’ OF may soon be back to full strength.

Portland Sea Dogs

Walter Johnson struck out 10 in a 4-1 loss to Memphis. Johnson gave up 3 homeruns, and hit one himself, his 3rd of the year.

Jerry Blevins, who missed the spring with an injury, is up from Seattle, and Russ Springer heads the other way.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Frank Grant — sporting a .933 OPS at 2B — is out about 2 weeks. Phil Garner and the surprising Bill Russell should split the job in his absence, and Bill Sweeney comes up from San Jose.

Aaron Heilman is back off the DL, with Dennis Eckersley sent to AAA. That leaves Charlie Ferguson as the only long arm in the bullpen, which the Sea Lions will live with for now.

Tim Hudson and Steve Ontiveros have both begun rehab assignments (Hudson would add some bullpen length, Ontiveros would not).

TWIWBL 102.2: Year 3, Week 5 – Spotlight on the Portland Sea Dogs

{Each week, we pick one club at random and give them a bit more depth–how they thought the season would go, how it’s going, and what the future might hold.}

After making the playoffs in 2000, Portland lost 91 games last year. They are 16-15 right now, in second place, and are a little puzzled by it all.

PORWBL rank2001 rank
Batting average.24111th18th
On-base.30414th17th
Slugging.40315th20th
OPS.70814th19th
Runs scored13811th19th
Homeruns3614th18th
ERA3.906th9th
WHIP1.237th16th
Strikeouts per 910.302nd11th
Walks per 93.4014th17th
Homeruns per 91.138th5th
Portland Sea Dogs | 6 May

#How We Thought it Would Go

The season preview was blunt about it: “Nobody in Portland is selling 2002 as a contention year, but getting back on track is the highest priority for the organization.” The club had sold every veteran they could, and had decided 2002 was a year to allow an extraordinary–and extraordinarily young–rotation (a 20-year-old, two 21-year-olds and a 26-year-old) to develop.

#How It’s Going

Second in the Cum Posey, 2.5 games out, 138 runs scored and 123 allowed. Not bad.

The pitching has done more than just arrive ahead of schedule — Portland strikes out more men per nine innings than every club in the WBL except one, after ranking 11th at that last season.

That needs a caveat: the league ERA has fallen from 5.38 to about 4.19, so a staff ERA of 3.90 against last year’s 5.33 is mostly the league coming back to earth. Griffith Stadium is also a harder place to score in than it was a year ago. The rank is the signal — 9th to 6th in ERA, 16th to 7th in WHIP, and 11th to 2nd in strikeouts. That last one is not a park effect.

Can this rotation stay together? So far, yes. All five starters have taken every turn. Walter Johnson is pitching like the best arm in the league: 42.1 innings, a 2.76 ERA, and 64 strikeouts to share the league lead. And his control has come around, with only 13 walks allowed. Joseíto Muñoz is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA, and Bert Blyleven, despite an 0-3 record, is sporting a 2.70 ERA.

Not all is great on the mound (remember, the Sea Dogs are hovering around .500). Walter Ball, Portland’s Pitcher of the Year last year, is struggling with his control and has an ERA over 6.00 and Jake Peavy, given a rotation spot despite a limited resume, isn’t doing much better.

Does Griffey learn the strike zone? The early answer is a cautious yes. Ken Griffey Jr is walking in 8.3% of his trips, up from 4.5% last season, and is hitting (287/342/491) with 4 homeruns. The strikeouts haven’t moved. One month is one month, but it is the first month of his career that the walk rate has looked more acceptable than not.

Who gets the ball in the 9th? Right now, Jack Billingham does. Billingham has 7 saves. There remain calls for Johan Santana to return to his closer role, but Portland seems set on seeing if the young lefty can make the transition to a starter. Santana currently has a 1.06 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 17 innings, clearly showing a full return from last season’s injury.

#The Crystal Ball

The rotation seems to be delivering on its promise.

The more challenging question is the offense. Five men with 50 or more trips to the plate are hitting under .220, and the fixes available are all 26-to-32-year-olds at Seattle having good months — useful, but not what a rebuild is for.

Portland is 11th in average and 14th in on-base, and the lineup is carried by Bobby Murcer (297/351/446) — graded the worst regular on the roster coming in — plus Griffey and Paul Molitor (261/300/479, 6 homeruns).

#Buy or Sell?

Who knows? It’s May. The Sea Dogs did sell last year, so they don’t really have veteran talent to move this year. But by midseason some of their depth questions might have clarified to the point they can be answered.

#Stories

Shortstop

The preview called it “Hughie Jennings and Clayton and hope.” Through a month: Hughie Jennings is at (183/206/233) in 63 plate appearances and Royce Clayton at (149/184/319) in 51. 114 PA between them and 19 hits.

So I guess there’s hope.

The DH Problem

Gil Hodges hit 38 homeruns in 2001 and was worth −1.4 wins doing it; he is now at (185/228/222) in 57 plate appearances. Kent Hrbek is doing a little better than that, but at least Hrbek has some pedigree to fall back on. Still, patience with Hodges may be wearing thin, and there are some intriguing bats in the minors that may get a look sooner rather than later.

Right Field, Three Ways

Chuck Klein has 5 homeruns, but only a .192 average. Bobby Abreu has been … fine … and then there is Murcer, who seems to have recaptured his form. Klein’s power continues to intrigue, but the OF feels like it is still in its exploratory phase.

The Big Train, Both Ways

Walter Johnson is hitting (333/379/778) with 3 homeruns in 29 plate appearances, mostly from hitting when he starts. 29 PAs decide nothing, but it’s easily the most fun line on the roster.

#Down on the Farm

The system is thin, but there are some names worth tracking.

Hugh Duffy (RF, 21, AAA): 373/413/508 in 63 plate appearances at Seattle, with 3 steals. The preview named him the organization’s best raw power in the minors; he is now also its best performer and, given the discussion of the OF above … may be the next man up.

Vladimir Guerrero (RF, 21, AA): 143/200/286 in 55 plate appearances at Vancouver. Stalled, but only 21.

Brant Alyea (LF, 29, AA): 333/390/710 with 8 homeruns in 77 plate appearances. Loud, but he’s 29 and at AA, which muffles quite a bit.

Not much on the mound. Shaun Marcum (P, 25, AAA): 3.70 in 41.1 innings with 32 strikeouts, the closest thing to a sixth starter. Bill Dietrich (P, 26, A): 2.18 in 33 innings. Tom Glavine (P, 20, A-ball) has thrown 13 innings.

Jack Fournier (1B, 16, A-ball): 225/262/375 in 42 plate appearances. He is sixteen, and playing. That by itself is a confirmation of potential.

#One Number

13.6. Walter Johnson’s strikeouts per nine innings, against 7.6 last season and 7.0 the year before. Whatever Portland thought it had in him, this is even better.

TWIWBL 100.3: Year 3, Week 3 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
San Francisco Sea Lions12-7.632—
Los Angeles Angels11-8.5791
Portland Sea Dogs11-8.5791
Chicago American Giants10-8.5561.5
Miami Cuban Giants9-10.4743
Cum Posey Division | 22 April

Chicago American Giants

Sam Streeter struck out 10 for the second time this year, but you wouldn’t know it from his ERA, which tops 7.00.

Los Angeles Angels

Richie Hebner hit 2 homeruns and drove in 4 in a 10-7 win at Portland.

Miami Cuban Giants

Robin Yount hit 2 out of the park in an 8-3 win over Los Angeles. It was a costly win for Miami, as Iván Rodríguez was hurt running the bases and will miss 5-6 weeks. Smoky Burgess was recalled from AAA to back up Chris Hoiles behind the plate.

A few days later Alejandro Oms joined the Cuban Giants on the DL, with Miami recalling reliver Aaron Barrett in hopes of lengthening their bullpen.

Portland Sea Dogs

Sure, Walter Johnson is the best SP in the league right now, but he’s hitting this year, too, sporting a .368 average on the young season.

Joseíto Muñoz struck out 11 in a 7-1 win over Los Angeles, with the Sea Dogs leaving the youngster in there for 142 pitches. That can’t be a great long term plan.

Chuck Klein had a hand in all 4 runs of a 4-3, 11-inning win over Baltimore: 2 solo homeruns, a 2-out single to tie it in the 8th, and scoring the winning run in the 11th. Klein is slugging over .500 as he adjusts to life in the WBL.

Jerry Blevins–hurt since well into last season–has begun a rehab assignment.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Some good pitching has brought San Francisco’s overall performance back towards expectations. Bump Hadley allowed 1 hit in 6 innings with 11 strikeouts, and then Lefty Grove struck out 13 in a 4-1 win over the Black Yankees.

Veteran Tim Hudson was injured while pitching and will miss about 2 weeks. The timing sped up Ron Robinson‘s return, with the reliever being welcomed back after an absence of close to a year.

TWIWBL 99.3: Year 3, Week 2 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Chicago American Giants7-6.538—
Los Angeles Angels7-6.538—
Miami Cuban Giants7-6.538—
Portland Sea Dogs7-6.538—
San Francisco Sea Lions7-6.538—
Cum Posey Division | 15 April

Chicago American Giants

Mark Buehrle threw a 1-hitter! But … rain ended the game after 6 innings. So, yay him, but not quite the usual celebration. Travis Jackson carried the offense with 2 homeruns.

The American Giants got a combined shutout, also weather shortened, as Waite Hoyt, Wilbur Wood, and Will Smith held Los Angeles to 5 hits in just under 8 innings, with Chicago winning 2-0.

Miami Cuban Giants

Some meh news from the medical staff: there is still no clear date for Julio Rodríguez‘ return from injury.

Jim Whitney, still really trying to find his groove, whiffed 10 in a no decision against San Francisco.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Bump Hadley and Charlie Ferguson split each side of a rain delay, combining on a 3 hit, 11-0 romp over Miami. Ferguson’s 4 hitless innings gave him that odd statistical achievement of a save in a blowout.

Portland Sea Dogs

Walter Johnson (2-0) delivered one of the finest starts of the year in a 2-1 victory over Detroit. Johnson whiffed 13 in 8 innings, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run (a solo shot to Ty Cobb), for a game score of 83 on the day. The Big Train DHs when he pitches (and is hitting .385 with a dinger), and he was key here, doubling in the 8th with 1 out to move the winning run to 3rd.

TWIWBL 98.3: Year 3, Week 1 – Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Portland Sea Dogs5-2.714—
Miami Cuban Giants4-3.5711
Chicago American Giants4-3.5711
Los Angeles Angels3-4.4292
San Francisco Sea Lions2-5.2863
Cum Posey Division | 8 April

Chicago American Giants

The American Giants swept San Francisco at home to close the week — 14-7, 8-5, 6-3 — and scored 50 runs in 7 games, the most in the division. An encouraging sign for a franchise at a crossroads this season.

Chino Smith did a lot of the damage: 2 homers at Detroit in an x-y win/loss, then 3 hits and a 2-run shot in the first game of the sweep.

Sam Streeter struck out 10 in 5 innings in the opening victory over the Sea Lions, and veteran soft-tosser Jamie Moyer has quietly been effective early, winning 2 out of the bullpen over the 1st week.

Miami Cuban Giants

Julio Rodríguez was injured running the bases on the 3rd and is on the disabled list — a serious blow, as the 20-year-old center fielder hit 42 homers with a 1.008 OPS last season. Mark Kotsay was recalled, and will see time in the OF with CF largely being patrolled by Yasiel Puig and Andy Pafko in JRod’s absence.

Portland Sea Dogs

Huston Street was signed as a FA and put to work immediately, working 2 scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over Baltimore. Harry Matuzak was optioned to AAA Seattle to make room for Street.

Walter Johnson struck out 10 over 6 innings in an 11-9 win at Los Angeles, with Bobby Murcer collecting 4 hits and 4 RBIs and Ken Griffey Jr hitting a 3-run homer.

San Francisco Sea Lions

Five losses in 6 games, and a sweep in Chicago to finish, leaves the Sea Lions last in the division at 2-5. Wait, what?

The bats have not been the problem. In the 14-7 loss that opened the sweep in Chicago, Jimmie Foxx hit 2 solo homers and Bobby Bonds had 3 hits and a 2-run shot. Bonds’ blast flew 459 ft, the longest home run struck in the division this week.

Aaron Heilman will miss about a week with a shoulder sprain, with the Sea Lions recalling Tim Hudson from his rehab stint to take Heilman’s place in the bullpen.

98.1: Welcome to Week 1 & Opening Day Games

8 April, 2002

Welcome to Year III! Woot woot!

The Whirled Baseball League opened its third season on the first of April, 2002, but the weather proved a mightier force than the ump crying Play Ball! Four of the ten scheduled openers were impacted by the wet — Houston at Homestead, Birmingham at Brooklyn, Chicago at Baltimore and Los Angeles at Cleveland all went to the tarp, and all four were made up as day-night doubleheaders the following afternoon. Of the six games that did get played, three were interrupted by rain anyway.

After the first week, The Detroit Wolverines sit alone at 6-1. Nobody else in the league has more than five wins. But Detroit is doing it with mirrors: they have scored 43 and allowed 39, which should put them at about 4-3. So we’ll see what holds.

Awards

American League Player of the Week: Dick Allen, Chicago American Giants.

The 24-year-old third baseman opened the year 11-for-27 with three home runs, nine runs batted in and nine runs scored, a .407/.467/.963 line across thirty plate appearances.

National League Player of the Week: Roberto Alomar, Ottawa Mounties.

Fifteen hits in thirty-one at-bats, with two home runs earned Alomar the Award. In one of those early season oddities, he didn’t draw a walk or reach base any other way, so both BA and OBP sit at .484.

Opening Day Games

Kansas City 5, Ottawa 4.

Not a single home run was hit in this one, and it was still the best game of the day. It opened messily on both sides: Kansas City scored twice in the first, one of the runs on a passed ball, and Ottawa gave one straight back in the bottom half on a wild pitch. The Mounties drew level in the third, and there it sat.

Then the sky opened. A thirty-eight minute delay in the fifth ended both starters’ afternoons — Roy Halladay had kept Ottawa in it to that point — and Kansas City came out of the break with two runs in the sixth to lead 4-2.

Ottawa’s answer in the eighth was what lifted the game above the level of the mundane: Eddie Guardado came on for the Monarchs and Roberto Alomar greeted him with a line-drive double. Gary Carter followed with a double of his own — an absolute rocket that left the bat at 111 miles per hour — and Carlos Beltrán scored Carter on a single to center. Tie game, and Kansas City called on Lee Smith to stop the bleeding (which he did).

The winning hit travelled about ninety feet in the air. Doug Rader walked to open the ninth and, after Ted Simmons grounded into a force play, Kolten Wong singled Simmons to second. Frankie Frisch came on to pinch-run from there, tagged up to third on an Ozzie Smith fly ball to right, and scored when Cool Papa Bell beat out a weakly hit infield chopper that left the bat roughly 50 mph slower than Carter’s smash.

Craig Kimbrel set Ottawa down in order in the ninth for the save; the win went to Lee Smith for the eighth.

Benny Kauff finished the day with three hits for the Monarchs.

KAN 5 (Smith 1-0; Kimbrel 1 Sv; Guardado 1 BSv) @ OTT 4 (Dempster 0-1)
HRs: none.
Box Score

San Francisco 5, New York Black Yankees 2.

For six innings this was the pitchers’ duel the marquee promised: Lefty Grove struck out twelve over six and a third — tying the Sea Lions’ franchise record for a single game — and Andy Pettitte matched him nearly stride for stride with six shutout innings and eight strikeouts of his own. Through four the scoreboard was blank in both directions.

Lou Gehrig broke the tie in the bottom of the fourth, taking Grove over the wall with one out for the season’s first run at Yankee Stadium. That held until the seventh, when New York summoned Hoyt Wilhelm to protect the one-run lead.

Whoops. Turkey Stearnes led off the seventh and tied the game on the spot with his opening dinger of the season, and although New York handed Wilhelm a fresh lead in the bottom half — Don Mattingly driving in the go-ahead run for 2-1 — he gave that one back too, and then some. San Francisco put up three in the eighth. Reggie Jackson added a solo shot off David Robertson in the ninth for good measure.

So: blown save, loss, and four earned runs across two innings for Wilhelm, and even on opening day the questions start being asked about the Black Yankees’ bullpen. Trevor Hoffman got the win in relief, Joe Nathan handled the 8th, and Rod Beck finished it off — the Sea Lions’ pen had no such queries asked.

SFS 5 (Hoffman 1-0; Beck 1 Sv) @ NYY 2 (Wilhelm 0-1, 1 BSv)
HRs: SFS – Stearnes (1), Jackson (1); NYY – Gehrig (1).
Box Score

New York Gothams 9, Indianapolis 6.

The week’s largest crowd — 54,814 — was treated to seven home runs (1 by a starting pitcher) and four lead changes. Don Buford led off the bottom of the first by putting a Luis Padrón offering into the seats, and Brandon Crawford did the same in the third.

Indianapolis finally solved Christy Mathewson in the fourth: Johnny Bench went deep with two out, and moments later, with a man aboard, Buddy Bell turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead. It lasted one inning. HR Johnson answered with a two-run homer in the fifth, and the Gothams tacked on a couple more in the sixth to lead 6-3 with nine outs to go.

Which is where it got strange. Luis Padrón, still in at the DH for the ABC’s, led off the seventh by homering off Masahiro Tanaka, and two batters later Oscar Charleston hit a two-run shot to tie it at six. Tanaka had blown the save and, in the way these things sometimes go, was about to be rewarded for it: New York retook the lead in the bottom half, and Buford’s second home run of the day, a two-run drive in the eighth, put it out of reach.

Mathewson struck out ten but walked five and got no decision. Tanaka got the win. Nobody got much peace, but the fans got a good show to start the season.

IND 6 (Mitchell 0-1) @ NYG 9 (Tanaka 1-0, 1 BSv; Wilson 1 Sv)
HRs: IND – Charleston (1), Bench (1), Bell (1); NYG – Buford (2), HR Johnson (1), Crawford (1).
Box Score

Detroit 7, Miami 5.

Charlie Root was the story at first — five and two thirds innings, no runs, no walks, and eleven strikeouts. Detroit’s lineup took its time with Miami starter José Méndez, opening with doubles from Bobby Wallace and Charlie Gehringer before Oscar Gamble finally got one out of the park in the fifth. Eustaquio Pedroso came on in relief of Méndez and it went no better — Al Kaline took him deep for two in the seventh, Gehringer in the eighth.

Miami got a two-run shot from Alejandro Oms and three hits from Gary Sheffield, but never was able to overtake the Wolverines.

MCG 5 (Méndez 0-1) @ DET 7 (Root 1-0; Henneman 1 Sv)
HRs: MCG – Oms (1); DET – Gamble (1), Kaline (1), Gehringer (1).
Box Score

Portland 7, Memphis 3.

Walter Johnson started, went three and a third (departing after a rain delay in the 4th), and hit a home run. Paul Molitor added a two-run shot of his own and Ken Griffey Jr had three hits and two runs batted in. Memphis answered through David Ortiz, who drove in three with a homer, and Johnny Briggs, who had three hits, but Portland held the lead throughout.

POR 7 (Trout 1-0) @ MEM 3 (Overmire 0-1)
HRs: POR – Molitor (1), Griffey Jr (1), Johnson (1); MEM – Ortiz (1).
Box Score

Philadelphia 9, Wandering House of David 5.

The ageless wonder that is Rico Carty opened the season by going 4-for-4 with a home run and Roger Peckinpaugh (sitting in at SS for Philadelphia for the suspended Jim Fregosi) drove in three, and Philadelphia was never really threatened once Hardie Henderson got through six. The House of David did get 2 homers from young John Beckwith and another from Anthony Rizzo. Jack Taylor gave up eleven hits in the loss.

PHI 9 (Henderson 1-0) @ HOD 5 (Taylor 0-1)
HRs: PHI – Carty (1), Peckinpaugh (1); HOD – Beckwith (2), Rizzo (1).
Box Score

Bits & Bobs

You Always Remember Your First
Houston’s Pete Hill is 0-for-17 with eight strikeouts. He posted a .800 OPS over 594 plate appearances last season, which makes him the furthest any regular has fallen from his own track. Memphis’s Herman Long is 0-for-10 since being signed to solve shortstop for the Red Sox, and Chicago’s Jay Bell and Birmingham’s Ron Fairly are also hitless.

The Root of Things
Nine and a third innings, seventeen strikeouts — the league lead — and not one walk for Detroit’s Charlie Root.

Singles? We Don’t Need No Stinking Singles.
Baltimore’s Gavy Cravath has six hits this season — three doubles and three home runs. Josh Gibson (Homestead), Manny Ramírez (Memphis), Oscar Gamble (Detroit) and Jack Clark (San Francisco) are also yet to hit a single this season.

Swing, miss, duck.
The Sea Lions’ Lefty Grove has sixteen strikeouts in eleven and a third innings — and a 6.35 earned run average and 0-1 record to show for it.

Who Needs the DH?
Five homeruns came from pitchers during the opening week. 2 came from Charles Rogan (Philadelphia), which isn’t terribly surprising, but Walter Johnson (Portland), Luis Padrón (Indianapolis), and Jim Whitney (Miami) all joined in as well.

Year III Season Preview: Portland Sea Dogs

▌ State of the Franchise

team logo

Portland won the Cum Posey Division in 2000 and finished last there the following year, ending 2001 at 71-91, 32 games out. Nobody in the Pacific Northwest thought it could fall apart that fast, that hard.

The collapse was on the offensive side, and it wasn’t one man having a bad year. Gil Hodges led the club with 38 home runs and was worth −1.4 WAR, which takes some doing. Bobby Murcer hit 33 and finished at −0.4. Kiki Cuyler and Cliff Lee also went negative in real playing time. The Sea Dogs finished last in most offensive measures while 4 different men cleared 30 homers, empty totals boosted by the extreme nature of the league last season.

So they sold everything with an age on it. Rogers Hornsby went to the Black Yankees for Jake Peavy and a 1st. Buddy Bell went out for Robin Ventura and some arms. SS Jim Fregosi is gone, as are half the bullpen.

What’s left is young, perhaps recklessly so. Joseíto Muñoz is 20 and in the rotation. Walter Johnson (the clear ace) and Bert Blyleven are 21. Joe Mauer caught 125 games and took the organizational MVP at age 23. Ken Griffey Jr is 21 and already the best bat here.

Nobody in Portland is selling 2002 as a contention year, but getting back on track is the highest priority for the organization.

▌ 2001 Revisited

We opened last spring asking for a deep playoff run once again, with championship contention. They lost 91 games. There’s no reading of that which doesn’t make it the worst call we’ve ever printed.

The best case wanted everyone behind Johnson to step up — Blyleven as a real number 2, Dizzy Trout as a more consistent rotation option, even Elmer Brown converting into a starter out of the pen, and 1st-round pick Walter Ball stepping straight in. Ball delivered: a 4.26 ERA over 141 innings, which against a league that gave up 5.38 is genuinely good, and enough for the organizational Pitcher of the Year. But he missed half the season through injury. The rest were fine (Blyleven, Trout) or bad (Brown, others).

The worst case reads like it was written afterward. Hornsby and Hodges show the effects of age, and the OF regresses towards absolute mediocrity. Hodges hit 208/292/461. Murcer hit 250/311/489. Hornsby played well enough to be traded in July and is a Black Yankee now.

Johnson is the part nobody should skip past. He threw 214 innings with a 4.28 ERA and 182 strikeouts, led the club at 4.6 WAR, and won a Gold Glove on the mound. He is 21, and looks quite likely to dodge the standard concerns about consistency and injury that accompany young arms.

▌ Key Changes

In: Jack Billingham (IND); Royce Clayton (SFS); Robin Ventura (IND)
Out: Buddy Bell (IND); Trevor Hoffman (SFS)

Opening Day Rookies: Chuck Klein; Willard Schmidt

▌ Best Case for 2002

The rotation arrives ahead of schedule. Johnson goes from very good to the best arm in the league. Ball’s 4.26 turns out to be who he is, over a full year this time. Muñoz holds a rotation spot and Peavy — who missed all of 2001 after coming over in the Hornsby trade — throws 150 healthy innings.

And, the bats do their part. Griffey starts taking a walk. Ventura steadies 3B. Abreu turns a 90-plate-appearance cameo into an everyday corner. And, perhaps, even Vladimir Guerrero, 21 and knocking from Vancouver, forces his way in.

Portland doesn’t win anything in 2002, but it could be a year the team can see the path back to where they were in 2000.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

Young pitching does what young pitching does. An elbow goes, Peavy’s lost year becomes a lost career, and Muñoz can’t stay healthy while Johnson drifts towards league average.

The bats stay put, which is the more likely problem, because there’s no internal fix waiting. SS is Hughie Jennings and Clayton and hope. 2B is Paul Molitor, who by common agreement can’t play there. Both corner OF spots are competitions between men who were below average last year.

And the real challenge is there isn’t much left to dump — this is the hand Portland drew, so regression can quite easily slide into apathy if no hope arrives.

▌ Key Questions

  • How long does this rotation stay together? Johnson, Ball, Blyleven and Muñoz are 21, 26, 21 and 20, and 3 of them have already thrown 140 or more WBL innings. That’s either the best young rotation in baseball or a list of injuries waiting to happen.
  • Does Griffey learn the strike zone? 292/326/568 with 33 homers at 21, and 23 walks in the whole season. He was worth 0.8 WAR while looking like the best hitter on the roster. This is an organization that has twice now chosen the on-base bat over the louder one — Mauer over Iván Rodríguez, Bell over Adrián Beltré, but Griffey remains on the periphery of that approach.
  • Who gets the ball in the 9th? Hoffman is in San Francisco. John Wetteland posted a 6.75 after arriving in Portland and a 9.90 before it. Huston Street was a waiver claim. Jack Billingham is the only reliever here who was reliably fine, and nobody has called him the closer.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CMauer C · Ashby
1BHrbek B · Hodges F
2BMolitor C · Frey
SSJennings · Clayton
3BVentura · Garrett
LFMurcer D
CFGriffey Jr B
RFAbreu · Klein
DHHodges F
SPJohnson C · Ball C · Blyleven D · Muñoz D · Peavy
RPBillingham C · Street F · Wetteland F · Springer · Schmidt

Mauer is the quiet argument for the whole approach: a catcher who hit 278/360/463 with 31 steals, made the AL All-Star team and took the organizational MVP on a last-place club, at 23. Portland kept him over Rodríguez and has had no reason to revisit it.

▌ Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerSP Dizzy TroutRF Hugh Duffy
Batting Eye3B Wayne Garrett2B Jack Crooks
ContactSS Hughie JenningsLF Riggs Stephenson
Running SpeedSP Walter JohnsonLF David Hulse
Base StealingSS Hughie JenningsLF David Hulse
IF DefenseSS Hughie JenningsSS Bobby Wine; 3B Lee Tannehill
OF DefenseRF Bobby AbreuCF Gary Pettis
StuffRP John WettelandRP Harry Harper
ControlSP Bert BlylevenRP Jack Wisner
VelocityRP Huston Street; RP John WettelandRP Migel Puente; SP Joaquin Benoit

▌ Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (5)21RFHugh Duffy

Others: IF Jack Fournier, P José Berríos, P Harry Harper, C Frankie Hayes.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Chuck Klein (83).

One ranked name, and he’s the 5th-best prospect in baseball. Hugh Duffy is 21 and slated as a WBL starter in a corner Portland can’t currently fill, which is convenient. Alongside him at Vancouver is Vladimir Guerrero, also 21, who came over in the Iván Rodríguez deal and is off the ranked list entirely — the kind of omission that either looks foolish in 2 years or explains itself. Fournier was a high draft pick, and should have a career, but he’s only 16 — child labor laws be damned.

▌ Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeRuss Springer, 38Jack Fournier, 16
HeightWalt Bond, 6’7″Nemo Leibold, 5’6″
OPSErnie Krueger, 1.059 (AAA)Fred Dunlap, 0.500 (AA)
HRGil Hodges, 38Gary Pettis, 1 (AA)
SBHughie Jennings, 45 (AAA)–
WAR (bat)Walt Bond, 3.9 (AAA)Fred Dunlap, -1.8 (AA)
WWalter Johnson, 13–
SVHarry Matuzak, 20 (AAA)–
ERAJoe H Coleman, 2.94 (A)Kris Medlen, 6.60 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Walter Johnson, 4.6Kris Medlen, -1.0 (AAA)

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.

TWIWBL 97.2: The Spring Training Trades

With just over a week left in Spring Training, we get to see how panicked some teams are, and how much they want to shake things up before opening day.

Unsurprisingly, we start with the Black Yankees and their perennial win-now mentality.

#The Black Yankees Add MI

NYY sends RP Aroldis Chapman, IF Mark Grudzielanek, 2nd Round Pick to CLE for IF Joe Sewell, IF Bill Phillips.

This is more fallout from the Grant Johnson trade in some ways: Sewell will have every shot at displacing Derek Jeter at SS for New York, and the team looks set to juggle their middle infield between those two, Robby Thompson, and Rogers Hornsby.

For Cleveland, they took a blocked talent–Sewell was never displacing Arky Vaughan–and converted it into a great bullpen arm and a valuable pick.

#The Red Sox Have a Rotation

Unsatisfied with just adding Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing, Memphis went shopping on the West coast.

MEM sends IF Dobie Moore, OF Dwight Evans, P Mike Witt to LAA for P Tom Seaver, IF Xander Bogaerts, IF Andrelton Simmons, C Mark Salas.

Clearly, the spine of the deal is Seaver for Moore, but this one has a lot of repercussions: Memphis continues to weed out some of its OF talent, and takes a gamble on Seaver continuing to develop at the WBL level. SS for Memphis is now a scramble between the two new bodies, Adam Everett, and Bud Harrelson; while for Los Angeles, this settles at least half of their middle infield question, and opens the door for some more arms to prove themselves in the rotation as they look to the future.

#CAG Settles at SS. Maybe.

CAG sends U Trea Turner & IF Yoán Moncada to HOU for IF Travis Jackson.

Jackson is clearly ready for WBL time–here he may actually get it; in return HOU gets a prospect in search of a position and one of the ST surprises in Moncada.

#Monarchs Make Moves

KAN sends OF Dale Murphy & IF Carlos Baerga to NYG for OF Benny Kauff.

A classic now v later move. Murphy is desperately in need of a change of scenery, and Baerga remains 4-5 years away, while Kauff should help deepen a lineup in need of power.

But Kansas City wasn’t done.

KAN sends P José Rijo, P Jeff Pfeffer & 1st Round Pick to LAA for 3B Doug Rader.

The Albert Pujols at 3B experiment looks to be officially over, with Los Angeles clearly reacting to the loss of Seaver. Expect David Wright and/or Pedro Álvarez to inherit the hot corner for the Angels.

And this led to another move for Los Angeles.

LAA sends P Brett Anderson & 3rd Round Pick to HOD for IF Richie Hebner, OF Cy Williams & 2nd Round Pick

Los Angeles has now gotten rid of their 2 best pitchers from last season: this is either great faith in their stockpiled arms or pure madness.

#Easy as A-B-C

IND sends P Tom Glavine, P George Medich, P Jack Billingham & IF Robin Ventura to POR for IF Buddy Bell.

Indianapolis gets an all star and former gold glove winner to take over at the hot corner, while Portland lands a lot of future potential, headlined by the 19 year old Glavine.

This deal set the stage for the next one.

IND sends IF Ed Charles & P Dan Plesac to NYY for P Jeff D. Robinson & P Jack Armstrong.

The Black Yankees get a decent bench piece for the price of a Rule V selection–which seems fair to all. The other two arms are essentially fliers–Armstrong back to his seed franchise, Plesac as a veteran LHP hedge.

#Memphis Not Done Yet

MEM sends IF Candy Jim Taylor, P Nathan Eovaldi & 1st Round Pick to BRK for OF John Briggs & 3rd Round Pick.

This one has some heads shaking. Memphis and Brooklyn team up again, with the Red Sox landing what they hope is the CF of the future, and Brooklyn adding some minor league talent and a coveted #1 pick.

Briggs has been doubted every step of his career–this is just another chance for him to prove the haters wrong. For Brooklyn, it clears CF for Duke Snider, and also means their OF glut can now route into the DH for the year.

#BB to BBB

BAL sends IF Asdrúbal Cabrera, P Bill Byrd, IF Roy Smalley Jr. & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for P Steve Avery, P Gio González, P Warren Spahn, OF Curt Flood & 1st Round Pick.

An interesting deal.

In 7 years, Baltimore may see this as a massive win–if Avery develops, if González becomes a rotation starter, if the 1st Round Pick pans out and, perhaps most of all, if a change of scenery reboots Spahn’s career.

That’s a lot of if’s. In the meantime, Birmingham gets a potential answer to their SS woes and a front of rotation arm that excels in limiting homeruns, the Black Barons’ current Achilles’ heel.

TWIWBL 96.1 – January’s Activity

31 December through mid January

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

#Chicago American Giants

Looking to bolster their competition at SS, Chicago signed Jay Bell to a one year deal.

More importantly, in late February, the American Giants got some good news on Frank Thomas, with the medical staff now saying he could be looking at a May return.

#Kansas City Monarchs

Signed Jeff Reardon to help in their bullpen.

Draft pick Chris Carpenter refused to sign with the Monarchs, so back into the draft pool he goes, and Kansas City will get a compensation pick.

#New York Black Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton refused to sign, so the Yankees will get a compensation pick. More importantly, this potentially scuttles a deal with the Gothams to obtain Gaylord Perry. We’ll see what the two sides can work out.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Added FA IF Lonny Frey to the MI mix–at $550k for 1 year, this is a low-risk move to try to find some stability at 2B.

Trades

These are all fallout from the Rookie Draft that were contingent on draft picks signing. The blockbuster here is how NYY’s win-now posture led to what could be a major reshaping of their roster.

The Big One

NYG sends P Gaylord Perry, IF Robbie Thompson to NYY for P Dave Righetti, IF Grant Johnson, 1st Round Pick, and 3rd Round Pick.

It’s a lot to give up. But the Black Yankees get a solid #3 starter, clear room for Hardy Richardson to play, and, as they are wont to do, further mortgage their future.

A Three Way

This was really just to resolve some errors in the draft itself. All low level noise.

KAN sends P Tex Pruitt, P Fred Holdsworth to DET for P Jakie May.
DET sends P Tex Pruitt, P Fred Holdsworth to MEM for C Billy Sullivan, P John Healy.

Gant Comes Home

BBB sends OF Yoenis Céspedes, P Ed Hanyzewski to HOD for SS Ron Gant.

Interesting deal. Gant, of course, doesn’t stay at SS, and Céspedes may impact HOD immediately.

More Noise

MCG sends P Jing Johnson to SFS for 2B Joe Dunand, P Kevin Kobel.

Housekeeping.

TWIWBL 95.2: Winter Meeting Trades

While there is a blockbuster, these were actually a pretty quiet Winter Meetings, with only four deals being made.

The Big One

MEM sends OF Mookie Betts, C Billy Bryan, P Jim Kaat, 3rd Round Pick to BRK for P Don Drysdale, P Red Ruffing, 5th Round Pick.

We start off with pretty much a blockbuster: Red Ruffing‘s signing turns out to be a sign and trade as Ruffing and disgruntled starter Don Drysdale head to Memphis for OF Mookie Betts, backup C Billy Bryan, and minor league P Jim Kaat. Brooklyn sends a 5th round pick and Memphis will send a 3rd round pick to even out the deal.

It turns out Drysdale was furious at being surpassed as the #1 starter for Brooklyn, and will now bring his near-manic intensity to the Red Sox, immediately stepping into the top of their rotation along with Stubby Overmire.

Cuban Giants Address Current Need

MCG sends P Jon Matlack, 2nd Round Pick to HOD for P CC Sabathia, 5th Round Pick.

The Cuban Giants addressed a clear need, bringing swingman CC Sabathia over from the House of David. They gave up a prized pitching prospect in Jon Matlack, and took the worst of a pick exchange (a 2nd for a 5th) to bring in Sabathia, who looks to have a shot at the Cuban Giants’ rotation if has a good Spring.

Coming Back Home

OTT sends P Dan Collins, 3rd Round Pick to MCG for P Steve Rogers.

This was about getting Rogers back to his historical franchise to see how that developed.

The Sea Lions Commit Even More

SFS sends IF Royce Clayton to POR for P Trevor Hoffman.

Portland entered these conversations hoping to get back draft picks; instead they ended up with a possible middle infielder for the future–look for an open competition with Clayton and Hughie Jennings in the Spring, while Hoffman walks into a dream situation–no pressure on a near guaranteed contender.

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