{Each week, we pick one club at random and give them a bit more depth–how they thought the season would go, how it’s going, and what the future might hold.}
After making the playoffs in 2000, Portland lost 91 games last year. They are 16-15 right now, in second place, and are a little puzzled by it all.
| POR | WBL rank | 2001 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting average | .241 | 11th | 18th |
| On-base | .304 | 14th | 17th |
| Slugging | .403 | 15th | 20th |
| OPS | .708 | 14th | 19th |
| Runs scored | 138 | 11th | 19th |
| Homeruns | 36 | 14th | 18th |
| ERA | 3.90 | 6th | 9th |
| WHIP | 1.23 | 7th | 16th |
| Strikeouts per 9 | 10.30 | 2nd | 11th |
| Walks per 9 | 3.40 | 14th | 17th |
| Homeruns per 9 | 1.13 | 8th | 5th |
#How We Thought it Would Go
The season preview was blunt about it: “Nobody in Portland is selling 2002 as a contention year, but getting back on track is the highest priority for the organization.” The club had sold every veteran they could, and had decided 2002 was a year to allow an extraordinary–and extraordinarily young–rotation (a 20-year-old, two 21-year-olds and a 26-year-old) to develop.
#How It’s Going
Second in the Cum Posey, 2.5 games out, 138 runs scored and 123 allowed. Not bad.
The pitching has done more than just arrive ahead of schedule — Portland strikes out more men per nine innings than every club in the WBL except one, after ranking 11th at that last season.
That needs a caveat: the league ERA has fallen from 5.38 to about 4.19, so a staff ERA of 3.90 against last year’s 5.33 is mostly the league coming back to earth. Griffith Stadium is also a harder place to score in than it was a year ago. The rank is the signal — 9th to 6th in ERA, 16th to 7th in WHIP, and 11th to 2nd in strikeouts. That last one is not a park effect.
Can this rotation stay together? So far, yes. All five starters have taken every turn. Walter Johnson is pitching like the best arm in the league: 42.1 innings, a 2.76 ERA, and 64 strikeouts to share the league lead. And his control has come around, with only 13 walks allowed. Joseíto Muñoz is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA, and Bert Blyleven, despite an 0-3 record, is sporting a 2.70 ERA.
Not all is great on the mound (remember, the Sea Dogs are hovering around .500). Walter Ball, Portland’s Pitcher of the Year last year, is struggling with his control and has an ERA over 6.00 and Jake Peavy, given a rotation spot despite a limited resume, isn’t doing much better.
Does Griffey learn the strike zone? The early answer is a cautious yes. Ken Griffey Jr is walking in 8.3% of his trips, up from 4.5% last season, and is hitting (287/342/491) with 4 homeruns. The strikeouts haven’t moved. One month is one month, but it is the first month of his career that the walk rate has looked more acceptable than not.
Who gets the ball in the 9th? Right now, Jack Billingham does. Billingham has 7 saves. There remain calls for Johan Santana to return to his closer role, but Portland seems set on seeing if the young lefty can make the transition to a starter. Santana currently has a 1.06 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 17 innings, clearly showing a full return from last season’s injury.
#The Crystal Ball
The rotation seems to be delivering on its promise.
The more challenging question is the offense. Five men with 50 or more trips to the plate are hitting under .220, and the fixes available are all 26-to-32-year-olds at Seattle having good months — useful, but not what a rebuild is for.
Portland is 11th in average and 14th in on-base, and the lineup is carried by Bobby Murcer (297/351/446) — graded the worst regular on the roster coming in — plus Griffey and Paul Molitor (261/300/479, 6 homeruns).
#Buy or Sell?
Who knows? It’s May. The Sea Dogs did sell last year, so they don’t really have veteran talent to move this year. But by midseason some of their depth questions might have clarified to the point they can be answered.
#Stories
Shortstop
The preview called it “Hughie Jennings and Clayton and hope.” Through a month: Hughie Jennings is at (183/206/233) in 63 plate appearances and Royce Clayton at (149/184/319) in 51. 114 PA between them and 19 hits.
So I guess there’s hope.
The DH Problem
Gil Hodges hit 38 homeruns in 2001 and was worth −1.4 wins doing it; he is now at (185/228/222) in 57 plate appearances. Kent Hrbek is doing a little better than that, but at least Hrbek has some pedigree to fall back on. Still, patience with Hodges may be wearing thin, and there are some intriguing bats in the minors that may get a look sooner rather than later.
Right Field, Three Ways
Chuck Klein has 5 homeruns, but only a .192 average. Bobby Abreu has been … fine … and then there is Murcer, who seems to have recaptured his form. Klein’s power continues to intrigue, but the OF feels like it is still in its exploratory phase.
The Big Train, Both Ways
Walter Johnson is hitting (333/379/778) with 3 homeruns in 29 plate appearances, mostly from hitting when he starts. 29 PAs decide nothing, but it’s easily the most fun line on the roster.
#Down on the Farm
The system is thin, but there are some names worth tracking.
Hugh Duffy (RF, 21, AAA): 373/413/508 in 63 plate appearances at Seattle, with 3 steals. The preview named him the organization’s best raw power in the minors; he is now also its best performer and, given the discussion of the OF above … may be the next man up.
Vladimir Guerrero (RF, 21, AA): 143/200/286 in 55 plate appearances at Vancouver. Stalled, but only 21.
Brant Alyea (LF, 29, AA): 333/390/710 with 8 homeruns in 77 plate appearances. Loud, but he’s 29 and at AA, which muffles quite a bit.
Not much on the mound. Shaun Marcum (P, 25, AAA): 3.70 in 41.1 innings with 32 strikeouts, the closest thing to a sixth starter. Bill Dietrich (P, 26, A): 2.18 in 33 innings. Tom Glavine (P, 20, A-ball) has thrown 13 innings.
Jack Fournier (1B, 16, A-ball): 225/262/375 in 42 plate appearances. He is sixteen, and playing. That by itself is a confirmation of potential.
#One Number
13.6. Walter Johnson’s strikeouts per nine innings, against 7.6 last season and 7.0 the year before. Whatever Portland thought it had in him, this is even better.