Baseball The Way It Never Was

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TWIWBL 101.1: Year 3, Week 4 – Easing Into the Season

29 April, 2002

#Awards

Al Kaline is the AL Player of the Week for Detroit, on a .400 week with 6 doubles, 2 homeruns and 10 RBI — powered by a 3-double game followed by a 2-homer, 5-RBI day. He is hitting .326 with 7 homeruns.

The NL Player of the Week is the New York Gothams‘ HR Johnson, who hit .400 with 4 homeruns and 9 RBI over 6 games, slugging .960. Johnson is fast becoming a fan favorite for the Gothams, for obvious reasons, but also for confirmation that perhaps they pulled a fast one on the Black Yankees in the offseason with his acquistion.

In the minors: Josh Harrison (New York Black Yankees) took the award at AAA Newark on a 14-for-28 week, and continues to make an argument for a longer trial at the WBL level; Steve Henderson (Los Angeles) took the AA Player of the Week, and Bob Cerv (Houston) won it at A-ball.

#Three Games

{A new section: when I can’t think of better topic for the front page, we’ll highlight 3 games of note from the week that was.}

Cleveland @ Ottawa, 24 April

Two pitchers with lightning in their arms and massive question marks on their futures faced off in Ottawa, with Cleveland’s Bob Feller taking the mound against the Mounties’ Big Question Mark, Randy Johnson. Both did well, allowing only a single run each. Feller’s day was better, with 11 strikeouts in over 6 innings, while Johnson did his usual thing, walking as many as he whiffed (5 of each).

Neither were around for the exciting parts of the game.

First, in the top of the 7th, RBI’s by Tris Speaker and Larry Doby gave Cleveland a 3-1 lead. Then, the Spiders turned the game over to Aroldis Chapman–their key offseason acquisition, who has been even more important with closer Terry Adams hurt for about a week. Chapman has been … awful. Which continued here.

First, he hit Gary Carter, then gave up singles to Álex Rodríguez and Adrián Beltré, loading the bases. And then Ottawa’s manager got creative, first sending pitcher Bill Smith in to pinch run for Beltré and then sending Old Hoss Radbourn, another pitcher, up to hit for the struggling John Olerud. While the fans were scratching their heads–Olerud is obviously better at the plate than Radbourn–Radbourn simply delivered, driving in 2 with a sharply hit single to left.

Chapman got to 2 outs, but no further, as a single from Roberto Alomar plated Radbourn with the winning run.

CLE 3 (Chapman 0-2, 3 BSv) @ OTT 4 (Holland 2-0)
HRs: none.
Box Score

Chicago @ San Francisco, 28 April

After a rough start, San Francisco has begun to right the ship while Chicago has been surprisingly good in the early going. This game felt like the Sea Lions continuing to reassert their dominance … until ….

Hits from Reggie Jackson and Jack Clark were the big blows, each driving in 2, and San Francisco led 5-0 behind easily the best start of the year so far from Tom Brewer. With the strength of the Sea Lions’ bullpen a well known commodity, some fans had even begun to eye the exits.

And then came the 8th.

Charlie Ferguson allowed a single to Jack Doyle before being relieved by Ken Howell. Howell got two outs–strikeouts of Chino Smith and Mickey Vernon–but allowed 2 singles and 2 doubles before giving way to Trevor Hoffman. Cristóbal Torriente doubled in 2, Kevin Mitchell and Travis Jackson had RBIs, and Eddie Collins greeted Hoffman with a double of his own and suddenly the American Giants were, somehow, ahead, 6-5.

They didn’t need it, but Chicago wasn’t done: Smith hit a 2 run shot in the 9th and Jackson drove in 2 more with a double. With Alex Reyes shutting down San Francisco in the 8th and 9th, that was it and the American Giants emerged with a 10-5 victory.

Allen, Collins, and Jackson each had 3 hits for Chicago on the day.

CAG 10 (Reyes 1-0) @ SFS 5 (Howell 1-1; Hoffman 1 BSv)
HRs: CAG – C. Smith (9); SFS – none.
Box Score

Birmingham @ the House of David, 28 April

It was the last game of the week. We were all just tired.

So nobody thought much about it when Paul Konerko blasted a solo shot off Bob Shaw to tie the game 5-5 in the top of the 8th. Given how well the offenses performed earlier, it seemed obvious that more runs were coming (Birmingham’s John Malarkey had surrendered 11 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings, including a 3 run shot by Ernie Banks; Jack Taylor was barely better for the House of David, giving up 4 runs in his 5 innings of work).

But the bullpens decided to change the script. For Birmingham, Al Javery, Akinori Otsuka, Harley Young, and Kerry Ligtenberg combined to allow 3 hits and zero runs over 9 innings of work, while for the home team, Scott Downs, Ed Bauta, Dellin Betances, Fergie Jenkins, and Karl Spooner gave up more hits (6), but were equally effective over 8 combined frames.

So, what happened?

Birmingham turned to Slim Embrey in the bottom of the 16th. And Embrey can’t really be blamed for what happened: he retired Ryne Sandberg, then saw Pete Browning and Ernie Banks reach on errors before Ron Santo singled to load the bases. Embrey then grooved one to Anthony Rizzo, who deposited in the seats for a walkoff grandslam homerun.

Cap Anson, Sandberg, and Santo had 3 hits each for the House of David, and Bobby Grich and Melky Cabrera had 3 for the Black Barons.

BBB 5 (Embrey 0-1) @ HOD 9 (Spooner 2-0; Shaw 1 BSv)
HRs: BBB – Konerko (5); HOD – Banks (6), Rizzo (4).
Box Score

#Player Performance

Four weeks in, the lists are starting to hold their shape. Qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game — about 80 PA and 26 innings.

#Batters

The Ted Williams problem has not gone away. He leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, runs, RBI, walks and WAR outright, and shares the homerun lead with Indianapolis’ Oscar Charleston at 12. Williams is hitting .434 with a .952 slugging percentage.

As usual, top 2-3 in most all stats below.

Cool Papa Bell (KAN). .203/.292/.291. 8 SB.
John Briggs (MEM). .247/.306/.438. 12 2B.
Pete Browning (HOD). .337/.393/.525. 9 SB.
Rico Carty (PHI). .375/.446/.694.
Oscar Charleston (IND). .304/.345/.676. 12 HR, 29 RBI, 1.8 WAR.
Ty Cobb (DET). .348/.402/.685. 1.5 WAR.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). .311/.398/.711. 24 RBI.
Hank Greenberg (DET). .241/.327/.448. 3 3B.
HR Johnson (NYG). .372/.400/.691. 12 2B.
Willie Mays (NYG). .283/.343/.641. 21 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). .230/.396/.297. 20 BB.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). .323/.368/.515. 13 2B.
Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI). .344/.385/.885. 9 HR.
Babe Ruth (NYY). .228/.384/.608. 9 HR, 19 BB.
Chino Smith (CAG). .277/.307/.699. 9 HR, 22 R.
Turkey Stearnes (SFS). .259/.300/.635. 9 HR.
Roy White (BRK). .303/.402/.487.
Ted Williams (MEM). .434/.542/.952. 12 HR, 28 R, 32 RBI, 22 BB, 2.4 WAR.

At the other end, Los Angeles’s Dobie Moore has now struck out 55 times, 9 clear of anyone else. Moore has shown some signs of life lately, but it’s a deep hole to crawl out of.

#Pitchers

Christy Mathewson of the New York Gothams is the league’s only 5-game winner, sitting at 5-0.

#Starters

Steve Carlton (PHI). 4-1, 1.89.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 3-2, 2.25. .195 BABIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 4.41. 1.90 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 3-1, 3.63. 54 K.
Waite Hoyt (CAG). 4-1, 2.45.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-1, 2.37. 45 K, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP, 1.3 WAR.
Dennis Martínez (BAL). 3-1, 3.45. .178 BABIP.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 5-0, 2.50. 48 K.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 2-0, 1.38.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 2-3, 3.28. 1.4 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 1-1, 1.95.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 2-0, 2.78. 0.77 WHIP.

#Relievers

One more week until we actually have some decent insight into the relievers–for now, here are the 4 closers tied atop the league with 6 saves each.

Rod Beck (SFS). 1-1, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Jack Billingham (POR). 0-1, 4.00. 6 Sv.
Jonathan Papelbon (MCG). 0-0, 3.00. 6 Sv.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 0-1, 2.35. 6 Sv.

#Hardest Shots

Josh Gibson owned the week: a 124 mph solo homerun off Indianapolis‘s Luis Padrón on Saturday was the hardest ball struck by anyone, and he also had a 120 mph double and a 119 mph homerun. Gibson’s overall stats aren’t showing it yet, but the thunder in the bat is clearly still there.

The hardest out was Ted Williams‘s — a 122 mph fly ball to right.

#Injuries

The big one is Bullet Joe Rogan, out about 2 weeks — Philadelphia loses a rotation turn and a bat with 9 homeruns in one move, and he is the fourth Stars pitcher on the disabled list in 10 days. The Gothams lose Dave Righetti for about the same stretch.

Memphis swingman Len Barker and Los Angeles OF Dwight Evans both hit the DL this week as well.

Year III Season Preview: Indianapolis ABC’s

▌ State of the Franchise

team logo

Indianapolis sees a path to victory based on roster depth and flexibility. The challenge is they still need quality — a gap the organization has been addressing, bit by bit, and optimism runs high for the ABC’s in 2002.

The instinct is as old as the franchise, with the most discussed impact being Indianapolis’ commitment to being the only club in the WBL that runs a 6-man rotation by choice. And they’ve been solid at addressing their holes — the OF was a churn of bodies in 2000, less so in 2001, and heading into 2002, the holes in the roster have shrunk considerably. Given they were in the postseason last Fall a year ahead of schedule, the optimism may be warranted.

The core is exceptional: Oscar Charleston in center, Johnny Bench behind the plate, Joe Morgan at second, Luis Padrón on the mound — 21, 26, 22 and 22 years old. Of the 4, Padrón is both the highest risk (pitchers, don’t you know), and the most important: the offense hasn’t shown that it can carry the club on its own, and Padrón’s dependable ace-level start is needed. The ABC’s are working on it, though: 3B was mediocre last year (no insult intended for the workmanlike production of Chris Sabo), so they gave up the most precious commodity in the WBL — pitching talent in the shape of Tom Glavine, George Medich and Jack Billingham — to Portland for third baseman Buddy Bell (repeated WBL failure Robin Ventura was included as well, but that was as much a favor to him to get a fresh start as anything else; of course Indianapolis was his prior fresh start).

Billingham’s inclusion is potentially telling. Rob Dibble led a carnival ride of a bullpen (Dibble saved 24 games with a 4.87 ERA and 29 walks in 44 innings) with Billingham being the single steady arm. The move signals faith in the options in hand, but we’ll see.

▌ 2001 Revisited

The bar for 2001 was modest: playing .500 ball would be a nice step; doing so while nurturing some talent for the future would begin to raise hopes. Indianapolis went 80-83, missing the bar, but qualifying for a Wild Card series anyway — 2nd in the Marvin Miller Division, in October a year early.

Three things came together. Padrón, a curiosity in last year’s preview, went 23-3 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at 22 and took the Brock Rutherford Award. Charleston hit 337/381/619 at 21 with 38 homers and 46 steals, and led the WBL with 14 triples. Morgan hit 306/425/612 in 104 games and then was hurt in September, essentially dooming the playoff run.

Padrón’s emergence masked some serious questions: the ABC’s were banking on the continued development of Doc White and Willie Mitchell. Both regressed a bit: White posted a 6.55 ERA and Mitchell walked 55 in 118 innings.

Speaking of regression … Bench was arguably the best backstop in the WBL in 2000; in 2001, he still led the club with 46 homers, but hit only .238, dropping about 3-and-a-half WAR from 2000. A catcher producing a 2.3 WAR still has immense value, but there is a significant gap there, and it’s not clear which is more likely for his career.

▌ Key Changes

In: Buddy Bell (POR); Jeff D Robinson (NYY)
Out: Jack Billingham (POR); Ed Charles (NYY); Robin Ventura (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Norm Charlton; Luke Gregerson; Billy McCool; Jeff D Robinson; Ed Swartwood; Steve Yeager

▌ Best Case for 2002

Most of all, Padrón repeats. But, also, Bench bounces back, Morgan stays on the field for a full year, and Charleston at 22 is what he was at 21. Bell settles third base and the supporting cast holds its shape: George Foster‘s 38 homers, Joey Votto‘s 36 alongside a Gold Glove, Bob Bescher stealing 80 bases out of the bottom of the order.

And the ninth inning resolves itself in-house. Luke Gregerson, Norm Charlton or 19-year-old Billy McCool takes the job, Dibble’s walks come down, and a Wild Card team turns into a problem for the rest of the division.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

The bullpen remains an unpredictable ordeal, Morgan’s health goes again, or Padrón’s 235 innings at 22 prove a serious error in judgement.

Barry Larkin doesn’t hit, shortstop goes back on the want list, and the lineup turns out to be homers and walks stapled to a lot of empty at-bats: 4 of the 9 regulars hit .246 or worse last year.

▌ Key Questions

  • Where does the eighth inning come from? Behind Dibble are Pedro Strop, Gregerson, Charlton, McCool and Jeff D Robinson, a set of live arms with a combined big-league record of nearly nothing. Rob Murphy, the other half of last year’s back end, posted a 5.66 and opens this season at Triple-A.
  • Does the 6-man rotation survive? I mean, at some point this stops being a question and just the operating norm for Indianapolis. But it’s still a bit of a curiosity, and last year’s final form was really more akin to 4 starters taking irregular turns behind Padrón and Johnny Cueto. Cueto threw 212 innings of 4.62 ball; behind the 2 horses sit veteran Eppa Rixey (5.16 in the WBL, 3.88 at Triple-A), Mitchell, White, and 20-year-old Edward Nolan, who struck out 94 in 83 innings while walking 52.
  • Does the offense hold a second season? It raked, and it did it strangely: Bench at .238, Adam Dunn at .207 with 36 homers and 30 steals, Foster at .259 with 38. The power and the on-base are real, the batting averages are not. That means the margin for error is pretty slim, and any regression or dip could tank the offense entirely.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBench B · Yeager
1BVotto C
2BMorgan S
SSLarkin D · Menke
3BBell D · Sabo D
LFBescher D · Dunn D
CFCharleston S
RFFoster C · Swartwood · Mondesi
DHDunn D
SPPadrón S · Cueto C · Rixey · Nolan · White F · Mitchell · Luque
RPDibble D (CL) · Gregerson · Charlton · McCool · Robinson · Strop

One line in that grid is doing 2 jobs. Padrón made 33 starts on the mound in 2001 and also started 23 games at third base and 14 at second, taking 259 plate appearances — a genuine 2-way season.

▌ Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Johnny BenchCF Dave Henderson
Batting Eye2B Joe Morgan3B Harlond Clift
ContactRF Oscar CharlestonLF Pete Rose
Running SpeedRF Raúl MondesiSS Tex McDonald; LF Gary Redus
Base StealingSS Barry LarkinLF Vince Coleman; CF Sam Mertes
IF DefenseSS Barry Larkin1B Sean Casey
OF DefenseRF Oscar CharlestonRF Nelson R Cruz
StuffRP Rob DibbleRP Rob Murphy
ControlSP Tommy BondRP Joe Moeller
VelocityRP Pedro StropRP Bobby Jenks

▌ Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (38)21LFDave Winfield
2 (48)20SPJim Maloney
3 (82)21SPPete Schourek
4 (84)241BSean Casey

Others: 3B Bob Aspromonte, SS Donie Bush, 3B Oliver Marcell, P Brad Radke.

That is a short list. A year ago it ran 10 deep and led with 2 teenage arms; Edward Nolan has graduated into the rotation and Foster into the outfield, while Ventura and Tom Glavine — 4th and 7th on that list — went to Portland in the Bell deal. Dave Winfield, the 15th pick of the 2001 draft but nearing readiness for the WBL level already, is the bat that replaced them at the top, and Jim Maloney is still the arm to watch, though at 20 he’s being asked to move from the bullpen into a rotation. Sean Casey is a big-league-ready first baseman with Votto in front of him.

What’s underneath is infield-shaped and a year or 2 out: Aspromonte and Marcell are the 3B pair, Bush the in-house answer at shortstop, Radke the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year. And for the sentimental, Pete Rose, is playing out the string at the Cincinnati affiliate, having gotten his WBL looks and not hit a lick in them. But, you know, don’t bet against him.

▌ Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Swartwood, 35Ricky Gutiérrez, 18
HeightKameron Loe, 6’8″Donie Bush, 5’6″
OPSAvisaíl García, 1.036 (AAA)Matt Chapman, .448 (A)
HRJohnny Bench, 46Johnny Temple, 0 (AA)
SBBob Bescher, 80–
WAR (bat)Oscar Charleston, 5.0Johnny Temple, −1.3 (AA)
WLuis Padrón, 23–
SVRob Dibble, 24–
ERABrad Radke, 3.12 (A)Doc White, 6.55
WAR (pit)Luis Padrón, 7.8Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 92.5: Off Season Review – Indianapolis ABC’s

80 - 83, .491 pct.
2nd in Marvin Miller Division, 5.5 GB
Lost in NL Wild Card, 4-2 to BRK

Overall

Indianapolis has to be pretty happy with the season, which included their first postseason appearance, some major hardware, and the clear emergence of a young nucleus to build around.

Two names jump out above all others: CF Oscar Charleston and P Luis Padrón. Padrón, at 22, was the dominant pitcher in the league and Charleston, at 21, moved into the elite category of WBL outfielders.

It’s a team that needs a few more pieces in place and, as importantly, needs a bounce back year from Johnny Bench and a healthy year from Joe Morgan. But if that happens, and if the preferred 6 man rotation finally clicks, the ABC’s could easily make another postseason run.

What Went Right

We’ll start on the mound, with Luis Padrón‘s Brock Rutherford Award winning season. Padrón went 23-3 with a 3.22 ERA and a miniscule 1.04 WHIP in a dominant year. Nothing is less predictable than young pitching, but Padrón sure looks like a long-term ace for the ABC’s.

Johnny Cueto wasn’t as good as Padrón, but was quite effective over his 35 starts.

Mike LaCoss was very impressive in a late season opportunity. And … that’s about it on the mound.

Oscar Charleston slashed 337/381/619, with 38 homeruns, 130 RBIs, and 101 runs scored, adding 46 steals for good measure. He played in 152 games, collected 207 hits, and even led the WBL with 14 triples (for even more good measure).

Joe Morgan was the ABC’s sparkplug until a late season injury ended his hopes of showing up in the playoffs. Morgan hit even better than Charleston, slashing 306/425/612 in 104 games, and the prospect of the two of them being healthy for a full season is mouth-watering.

Joey Votto and George Foster exceeded expectations, combining for 74 homeruns and 167 RBIs, with Foster showing more pure power but Votto a more rounded overall offensive game.

Johnny Bench fell off from the heights of last season, but still led the team with 46 homeruns, driving in 116. He’s still an elite backstop, and is just coming into his prime at 25.

Chris Sabo was surprisingly effective at 3B after coming over via trade, posting an .854 OPS.

Bob Bescher can’t hit much, but he sure can run, stealing 80 bases while posting a .355 OBP.

The ABC’s had a quartet of late season call ups that were quite impressive at the plate, with Hal Morris, Emil Frisk, Ed Swartwood, and Ross Youngs all showing well in limited appearances.

ALL STARS

Oscar Charleston
Luis Padrón
MAJOR AWARDS

Oscar Charleston, All NL Team; NL CF Silver Slugger
Luis Padrón, All NL Team; NL Brock Rutherford Award
Joey Votto, NL 1B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Oscar Charleston, NL Mel Trench Award 2nd Place; NL All Rounder 3rd Place; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team; NL 21 & Under Team
Adam Dunn, NL All Rookie Team
George Foster, NL All Rookie Team
Dave Henderson, NL Over 30 Team
Mike LaCoss, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Joe Morgan, All NL 2nd Team; NL 24 & Under Team
Edward Nolan, NL 21 & Under Team
Luis Padrón, NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Eppa Rixey, NL Over 30 Team
Chris Sabo, NL All Rookie Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Oscar Charleston, MVP
Luis Padrón, Pitcher of the Year
Joe Morgan, Heart & Soul
Oscar Charleston, Fan Favorite

Brad Radke, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Ed Swartwood, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

On the mound, the biggest thing that went wrong was thorough mediocrity: Eppa Rixey, Doc White, Sad Sam Jones, and Willie Mitchell were all very meh across a combined 52 starts.

Rube Foster and The Only Nolan, however, were downright bad (Nolan’s year was cut short due to injury, and at 20, he certainly can bounce back).

The back end of the bullpen was among the worst in the league, with Rob Dibble struggling mightily despite his 24 saves and Rob Murphy just plain struggling. Still, both arms are live enough that they’ll be back.

In the field, Dave Henderson wasted 170 PAs to the tune of a .543 OPS before heading to the minors.

After Morgan was hurt, neither Denis Menke nor Tommy Helms did much at all. Helms was slightly better, but still posted only a .699 OPS.

SS remains highly unsettled: as much as the ABC’s would like to see Barry Larkin take over, he’s yet to show that he can really handle WBL pitching.

Robin Ventura was given another shot at the WBL and once again failed miserably, with a sub .500 OPS over 20 games.

Lew Ritter, Larry Pratt, and Mike Redmond were all awful as Bench’s backup.

Transactions

March

IF Davey Concepción & 3rd Round Pick to NYG for P Sad Sam Jones & 4th Round Pick.

Feels pretty meaningless, although perhaps Concepción will turn into the SS the ABC’s are missing.

July

4th Round Pick to HOM for IF Chris Sabo.

Sure, this worked out decently enough.

August

OF Jake Stenzel to CAG for P Joe Lake.

Stenzel was performing well, but was pretty blocked with Indianapolis, while Lake profiles as a decent back of rotation option, so this seems fine.

Positional Overview

C

Johnny Bench has this locked up, but his backup spot is up for grabs. Veteran Mike Redmond is probably the best defensive option, but he, Bo Díaz, Patsy Gharrity, and Christian Vázquez will be given a look.

1B

Joey Votto has made this his own, and with Adam Dunn also being able to play here, probably thoroughly blocks Sean Casey, Patsy Gharrity, and Hal Morris from seeing time in the WBL with the ABC’s.

2B

Joe Morgan is expected to be fully healthy by Spring Training, but the backup infield spot is pretty wide open, given Denis Menke and Tommy Helms‘ struggles this season.

There’s not a lot of options in the system–young Donie Bush can play here, but is better suited for SS, and veteran Craig Counsell could help out in a pinch.

SS

Barry Larkin will be given every chance to succeed here, with Donie Bush the most likely alternative, although the defensive wizardry of Pokey Reese may also be attractive.

3B

A bit unsettled, as while Chris Sabo will go into the Spring as the starter, the ABC’s would really love to see Robin Ventura finally deliver on his promise. Bob Aspromonte and Oliver Marcell have great potential here, but are probably a year or 2 away at this point.

LF/RF

George Foster is set, but there will be some competition at the other spot. Bob Bescher is a useful spark plug, but Ross Youngs, Ed Swartwood, and Edd Roush may offer enough offensively to displace him.

Leroy Stanton and Pete Rose lurk in the high minors as well.

CF

With Oscar Charleston around, there is some talent here that is blocked. Roush and Foster can play here, and the defensive skill of Jim Eisenreich has some attraction as well.

DH

Adam Dunn has the inside track here, but could be pushed by any number of the OF or 1B contenders.

SP

The front 2 of the rotation are obvious in Padrón and Johnny Cueto–indeed, the ABC’s are likely to go with less of a 6 man rotation and more of a 4 starters taking irregular turns between Padrón and Cueto.

Look for Rube Foster, Willie Mitchell, Joe Lake, Mike LaCoss, Eppa Rixey, Doc White, and The Only Nolan to be the primary contenders to fill out the rotation.

Jim Maloney has turned some scouts’ heads, but needs to transition from the bullpen to the rotation–at only 20, he still can. But probably the highest ceiling starting prospect remains Tom Glavine, who may see the high minors this year.

RP

Jack Billingham had a good year. Nobody else did, but the same crew–Clay Carroll, Rob Murphy, and Rob Dibble–are likely to be trotted out once more.

Jeff Robinson and Norm Charlton are knocking on the door if they falter (again).

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 1
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

Not a lot of capital here to work with.

TWIWBL 88.2: Teams of the Year By Age

The overall All-WBL Teams can be found here.

In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.

A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.

#WBL Teams of the Year

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BJim Thome (28, MCG)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BEddie Collins (28, CAG)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSArky Vaughan (27, CLE)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Ron Cey (27, BRK)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Aaron Judge (27, PHI)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Willie Stargell (31, HOM)
SPLefty Grove (27, SFS)
José Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (26, KCM)
Eric Gagne (27, BRK)

#WBL 25 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CMickey Cochrane (25, SFS)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BHank Greenberg (24, DET)Jeff Bagwell (24, HOU)
2BGrant Johnson (25, HOU/NYY)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Rick Monday (24, OTT)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Andrew Chafin (25, HOU)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)

#WBL 23 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BEddie Murray (22, BAL)Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BFrank Grant (22, HOD/SFS)Joe Morgan (22, IND)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Carlos Correa (23, HOU)
3BJimmie Foxx (22, SFS)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFFrank Robinson (22, BAL)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Richie Hebner (23, HOD)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Brett Anderson (22, LAA)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
Smokey Joe Wood (22, KCM)
RPAndrew Miller (23, MEM)
Goose Gossage (23, NYY)
Julio Teheran (22, LAA)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)
Ted Kennedy (22, PHI)

300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.

#WBL 21 & Under

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B—Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BMartín Dihigo (19, MCG)—
SSDobie Moore (20, MEM)Judy Johnson (18, HOM)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (20, CAG)Ron Santo (21, HOD)
LFAlejandro Oms (21, MCG)Sherry Magee (21, PHI)
CFKen Griffey Jr (20, POR)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFBryce Harper (20, BAL)—
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)—
SPWalter Johnson (20, POR)
Bob Feller (20, CLE)
Joseíto Muñoz (20, POR)
Ice Box Chamberlain (19, HOU)
JM Ward (20, PHI)
Sandy Koufax (21, BRK)
RPPete Conway (21, DET)
Tom Williams (20, CAG)
Billy Hoeft (19, DET)
Pete Donohue (21, NYG)
Edward Nolan (19, IND)
Vida Blue (21, HOU)

All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.

There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.

One more, largely for fun

#WBL Over 30 Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Jim Pagliaroni (32, MEM/BBB)
1BCarlos Delgado (32, LAA)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BRogers Hornsby (34, NYY)Ryne Sandberg (33, HOD)
SSBobby Wallace (34, BAL/DET)Ozzie Smith (30, KCM)
3B—Jim Ray Hart (30, NYG)
LFOscar Gamble (32, DET)Don Buford (32, LAA/NYG)
CF—Dave Henderson (33, IND)
RFKiki Cuyler (32, POR)Albert Belle (32, BBB)
DHGavvy Cravath (36, BAL)Joey Votto (32, IND)
SPAndy Pettitte (33, NYY)
Connie Johnson (34, BAL/DET)
Charlie Root (31, DET)
Gaylord Perry (33, NYG)
Eppa Rixey (31, IND)
Cliff Lee (30, HOM)
RPJonathan Papelbon (31, MEM/MCG)
Joe Nathan (31, LAA/SFS)
Buddy Groom (37, BAL)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Bob Howry (34, PHI)
Josh Lindblom (31, HOM)

Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.

TWIWBL 87.17: The Awards

We’ll do this Award Show style, ending with the MVP.

#Silver Sticks

The guideline here is the best offensive performance at each position, with a slightly relaxed PA requirement and combining LF and RF. Players qualify for their team at season’s end, much to Paul Konerko‘s delight.

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (DET/CLE)Josh Gibson (HOM)
1BFrank Thomas (CAG)Paul Konerko (CAG/BBB)
2BRogers Hornsby (NYY)Roberto Alomar (OTT)
3BEvan Longoria (CLE)Ron Cey (BRK)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (BAL)Ernie Banks (HOD)
OFBabe Ruth (NYY)Larry Walker (OTT)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)Oscar Charleston (IND)
OFKal Daniels (LAA)Aaron Judge (PHI)
DHTy Cobb (DET)Willie Stargell (HOM)

Joe Morgan was better offensively than Alomar, but Alomar had 200 more plate appearances and was no slouch himself.

#Rookie Of the Year

This was pretty easy in terms of the overall awards, but the second and third place finishers were far more heavily contested.

RankAmerican LeagueNational League
1Turkey Stearnes (CF, SFS, 22)Charles Rogan (P/Util, PHI, 27)
2Cal Ripken, Jr (SS, BAL, 23)A. Rube Foster (P, KCM, 24)
3Bump Hadley (P, SFS, 23)Smokey Joe Williams (P, BRK, 24)

Al Kaline (DET), David Ortiz (MEM), and Jim Whitney (MCG) in the AL, and John Briggs (BRK), Judy Johnson (HOM), and George Foster (IND) in the NL were the next names on the lists, but these selections feel pretty solid.

#All Rounder Award

This one is given to the player whose offense was most well-rounded–walks, power, speed, all of it.

RankAmerican LeagueNational League
1Ty Cobb (DET)Roberto Alomar (OTT)
2Kal Daniels (LAA)Jackie Robinson (BRK)
3Tris Speaker (CLE)Oscar Charleston (IND)

#Phineas Flint Award

This goes to the best reliever in each league–not necessarily a closer, but often.

RankAmerican LeagueNational League
1Rod Beck (SFS)Eric Gagné (BRK)
2Joe Nathan (LAA/SFS)Lee Smith (KCM)
3Goose Gossage (NYY)Craig Kimbrel (KCM)

#Brock Rutherford Award

This goes to the dominant pitcher in each league, usually a starter.

RankAmerican LeagueNational League
1Lefty Grove (SFS)Luis Padrón (IND)
2Bump Hadley (SFS)Toad Ramsey (HOU)
3José Méndez (MCG)A. Rube Foster (KCM)

#Mel Trench Award

And, the biggie, the MVP. A slight prejudice towards batters here, but it’s possible for a pitcher to enter the building.

RankAmerican LeagueNational League
1Ty Cobb (DET)Josh Gibson (HOM)
2Babe Ruth (NYY)Oscar Charleston (IND)
3Mike Trout (LAA)Gary Carter (OTT)

As has been constant in much of this Award season, the top spots are clear, and beyond that it’s a little bit of a mess.

Trout’s numbers weren’t as good as Turkey Steranes or Tris Speaker, but he carried Los Angeles all season. That said, this could have been a 3 way tie for AL CF’s. In the NL, you can argue that Ron Cey was more important to Brooklyn than Carter was to Ottawa, and certainly Brooklyn’s Whirled Championship counts for something. But Carter did all that … as a catcher (which underscores Gibson’s edge on the field).

TWIWBL 87.15: Teams of the Year

We’re doing 3 teams for each league, with players color coded by their Tier Level (S Tier, A Tier, B Tier, C Tier), with selections for each position, 3 starters, 2 bullpen arms, and a closer.

Just a glance shows the differences in the leagues: you want offense, look at the AL, you want pitching, the NL. That’s a generality, and like all such, not fully accurate: the NL actually has more S Tier bats, but the AL is overall more top heavy offensively.

San Francisco, predictably, leads the way with 12 selections while the rivalry between the Black Yankees and Cleveland continues, with the Bill James Division heavyweights having 8 each.

#AL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CEd Bailey (DET/CLE)Mickey Cochrane (SFS)Curt Blefary (BAL)
1BJim Thome (MCG)Lance Berkman (CLE)Jack Clark (SFS)
2BEddie Collins (CAG)Rogers Hornsby (NYY)Miller Huggins (BAL)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Cal Ripken, Jr. (BAL)Dick Lundy (SFS)
3BEvan Longoria (CLE)Mike Schmidt (NYY)Jimmie Foxx (SFS)
LFBabe Ruth (NYY)Kal Daniels (LAA)Frank Robinson (BAL)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)Tris Speaker (CLE)Mike Trout (LAA)
RFMickey Mantle (NYY)Joe Jackson (CAG)Yasiel Puig (MCG)
DHTy Cobb (DET)Lou Gehrig (NYY)Reggie Jackson (SFS)
SPLefty Grove (SFS)
José Méndez (MCG)
Jim Whitney (BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (SFS)
Andy Pettitte (NYY)
Eddie Plank (SFS)
Ed Walsh (CAG)
Brett Anderson (LAA)
Ron Guidry (NYY)
RPKen Howell (SFS)
Andrew Miller (MEM)
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
Al Smith (CLE)
Firpo Marberry (CLE)
Ron Reed (CLE)
CLRod Beck (SFS)Goose Gossage (NYY)Jonathan Papelbon (MEM/MCG)

I do wonder if this points to how fragile Cleveland is. The Spiders are one of only 2 teams to make the playoffs in both WBL seasons, but if you were to pick names likely to fade off this list, Arky Vaughan, Evan Longoria, Al Smith, and Firpo Marberry would jump out.

It also shows just how top heavy Los Angeles is: 2 S-Tier players (plus Brett Anderson and Ross Reynolds) with nothing to show for it. At the other end, there’s Detroit–the other team to make the playoffs each year–with only a single player (the incomparable Ty Cobb) listed, further reinforcing the Wolverines as having done it with a true team effort (although this was also quite close: Terry Adams, Al Kaline, and Hank Greenberg were all in contention for 3rd Team honors).

And the less said about Memphis, the better.

#NL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CJosh Gibson (HOM)Gary Carter (OTT)Mike Piazza (BRK)
1BPaul Konerko (CAG/BBB)Will Clark (NYG)Jeff Bagwell (HOU)
2BRoberto Alomar (OTT)Joe Morgan (IND)Ryne Sandberg (HOD)
SSErnie Banks (HOD)Carlos Correa (HOU)Alex Rodríguez (OTT)
3BRon Cey (BRK)Albert Pujols (KCM)Scott Rolen (PHI)
LFJim Wynn (HOU)Ryan Braun (BBB)Rick Reichardt (HOM)
CFOscar Charleston (IND)Willie Mays (NYG)Charles Rogan (PHI)
RFAaron Judge (PHI)Larry Walker (OTT)Tony Gwynn (HOU)
DHWillie Stargell (HOM)Benny Kauff (NYG)Rick Monday (OTT)
SPLuis Padrón (IND)
Toad Ramsey (HOU)
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
Smokey Joe Wood (KCM)
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
Roger Clemens (HOU)
Hardie Henderson (PHI)
Orel Hershiser (BRK)
RPLee Smith (HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
Robb Nen (NYG/HOM)
Terry Forster (BRK)
Andrew Chafin (HOU)
Fred Cambria (PHI)
CLEric Gagné (BRK)Josh Lindblom (HOM)Bob Howry (PHI)

Brooklyn and Kansas City’s pitching is so strong. And imagine just how bad Ottawa’s pitching had to be, given their offensive representation.

Indianapolis has 3 S Tier players, giving them perhaps the most dominant nucleus in the league to build around. Kansas City has 4 S Tier players, but 2 of them are relievers, so most GM’s would prefer the ABC’s group.

And there are some league-wide deficiencies, especially at 1B and LF. Jim Wynn is a nice player, but the best in the league?

Both of Birmingham’s entrants were brought over in trade … but they also lost Jim Whtiney in those deals.

#Team by Team

Portland had nobody–nobody–who was deemed top 3 in the AL at their position. Ouch.

Baltimore. 4: Curt Blefary, Miller Huggins, Cal Ripken, Jr, Frank Robinson.
Birmingham, 2: Ryan Braun, Paul Konerko.
Brooklyn. 7: Ron Cey, Terry Forster, Eric Gagne, Orel Hershiser, Mike Piazza, Fernando Valenzuela, Smokey Joe Williams
Chicago. 3: Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Ed Walsh.
Cleveland. 8: Ed Bailey, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Firpo Marberry, Ron Reed, Al Smith, Tris Speaker, Arky Vaughan.
Detroit. 1: Ty Cobb.
Homestead. 5: Josh Gibson, Josh Lindblom, Robb Nen, Rick Reichardt , Willie Stargell.
Houston. 7: Jeff Bagwell, Andrew Chafin, Roger Clemens, Carlos Correa, Tony Gwynn, Toad Ramsey, Jim Wynn.
Indianapolis. 3: Oscar Charleston, Joe Morgan, Luis Padrón.
Kansas City. 5: A. Rube Foster, Eddie Guardado, Albert Pujols, Lee Smith, Smokey Joe Wood.
Los Angeles. 4: Brett Anderson, Kal Daniels, Ross Reynolds, Mike Trout.
Memphis. 1: Andrew Miller.
Miami. 5: José Méndez, Jonathan Papelbon, Yasiel Puig, Jim Thome, Jim Whitney.
New York Black Yankees. 8: Lou Gehrig, Goose Gossage, Ron Guidry, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Andy Pettitte, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt.
New York Gothams. 3: Will Clark, Benny Kauff , Willie Mays.
Ottawa. 5: Roberto Alomar , Gary Carter, Rick Monday, Alex Rodríguez, Larry Walker.
Philadelphia. 7: Fred Cambria, Hardie Henderson, Bob Howry, Aaron Judge, Charles Rogan, Scott Rolen.
Portland. 0.
San Francisco. 12: Rod Beck, Jack Clark, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Lefty Grove, Bump Hadley, Ken Howell, Reggie Jackson, Dick Lundy, Eddie Plank, Turkey Stearnes.
Wandering House of David. 2: Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg.

TWIWBL 87.5: The Second Basemen

Another NL dominated list with AL 2B only appearing in the B Tier and, honestly, each of those perhaps belonging one group lower.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLOTTRoberto Alomar24305/383/57935 HR
109 RBI
121 R
58 SB
NLINDJoe Morgan22306/425/61235 SB

Nobody would have predicted Roberto Alomar as the best 2B in the game before the season began, but here we are. Alomar was truly superlative, putting him in the running for the All Rounder Award, even. Alomar’s WAR of 4.9 easily outpaced the rest of the field at 2B, and perhaps the only knock on him is that he led the league with 14 errors, however he also played more innings at 2B than anybody else.

Even with all that, Joe Morgan may have edged Alomar for the top spot if he had remained healthy: he got on base more often and showed more power, and is expected to be back at full strength for Spring Training

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLBRKJackie Robinson29288/369/54952 SB
NLHODRyne Sandberg33292/351/59242 HR.993 fPct
4.97 RF

Jackie Robinson spent some time elsewhere early in the season, but settled down at 2B for the champions, and won the Whirled Series with a memorable walkoff blast. While Ryne Sandberg faded a little as the season moved along (he lead the WBL in homers at one early point), this is still more than enough to cement his spot as a star in the league, especially when his defense is considered.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALCAGEddie Collins28286/385/413104 R
73 SB
NLNYGLarry Doyle35261/350/58726 HR
—LAA/
BBB
Bobby Grich24226/349/448.976 fPct
ALPOR/
NYY
Rogers Hornsby34270/374/480-11.9 ZR
.904 dEff
ALBALMiller Huggins28276/421/35435 SB10.8 ZR
1.100 dEff
NLPHIChase Utley30254/341/44126 SB.994 fPct
4.92 RF
13.7 ZR

Eddie Collins was a borderline MVP candidate last year, and the first recipient of the All Rounder Award, and Bobby Grich wasn’t all that far behind him. This year, a 50 point drop in slash line across the board moves them into this space, where their starting jobs are safe, but they’re really in danger of no longer being considered elite. An argument could be made that Rogers Hornsby still belongs in the A Tier, but his age and defensive weakness moves him here.

Larry Doyle barely made the usage requirement for the list, which moves him down a tier and, at 35, it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. Still, in hindsight, he clearly should have started at 2B for the Gothams all season.

Miller Huggins may not belong here, but we’re a sucker for players with 150 point spreads between their BA and OBP, and he’s clearly locked down the starting role in Baltimore. Add his defensive metrics, and we’re fine with him in this group.

Chase Utley‘s incredible defense moves him into this tier–his offensive performance alone would leave him in the C Tier.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALMCGMartín Dihigo19246/291/42939 SB1.000 fPct
ALDETCharlie Gehringer25257/335/4524.89 RF
-10.7 ZR
—HOD/
SFS
Frank Grant22255/339/38443 SB
ALMEMDJ LeMahieu29297/373/4331.117 dEff
ALPORPaul Molitor24266/323/42342 SB.977 fPct

Paul Molitor‘s future is not at 2B, but to succeed anywhere else, he’ll need to up the offensive production–indeed, he is perhaps being flattered through his inclusion here.

DJ LeMahieu and Frank Grant barely made the list’s usage requirement, leaving Charlie Gehringer as the only obvious C Tier second baseman.

And then there is the enigma that is Martín Dihigo. He played mostly at 2B, but logged a ton of innings elsewhere, at a gold glove level everywhere. Add in his age, his massive jump in offensive performance, and his speed, and you could argue he belongs a tier above.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHOUCraig Biggio26234/333/39820 SB (but, 20 CS)
NLBRKRay Dandridge22249/284/4213.94 RF
1.131 dEff
NLINDTommy Helms25268/300/399
ALCLEChuck Knoblauch28230/320/38138 SB-12.5 ZR
.926 dEff

Craig Biggio has more upside–and clearly had the better year–but either he or Chuck Knoblauch could, surprisingly, see the bench next year. Both were significantly better last year, with Knoblauch being an All Star, so there is some reason for optimism as well.

Ray Dandridge‘s future in Brooklyn is probably at SS, but he played most this season at 2B, so he’s listed here. Obviously, the offense needs to improve for his career to stabilize.

Tommy Helms is a utility infielder at best, forced onto this list by Morgan’s injury.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLKCMRobinson Canó25230/258/39711.0 ZR
NLBBBCupid Childs24224/344/32737 SB
NLKCMFrankie Frisch28255/281/405
ALNYYTom Herr29228/288/32621 SB4.02 RF
NLHOMNapoleon Lajoie24231/255/40955 2B.993 fPct
ALMCGCookie Rojas26267/307/379.993 fPct

An interesting group, honestly. Cupid Childs has gone from being a rising star to losing his starting job with the arrival of Bobby Grich; Napoleon Lajoie‘s 55 doubles speak to his potential, and Cookie Rojas is quite versatile, although, of this group, perhaps the most expendable for his team.

Note Childs’ OBP: his speed and ability to get on base should preserve his having utility in the WBL somewhere.

And then we have the misery that is Kansas City, with both Robinson Canó and Frankie Frisch buried here (although, to be fair, Frisch is a utility infielder and has value as such). And, Tommy Herr, who was supposed to be the long-term solution at 2B for New York, but whose performance prompted the acquisition of Hornsby by the Black Yankees.

#Rookies

Charlie Gehringer (C Tier) and Frank Grant (C Tier).

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

TWIWBL 84.3: NL Playoff Previews

Again, in seeding order.

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Sailing under the radar for most of the season, Brooklyn still managed 99 victories, led by a ridiculously strong pitching staff.

The Royal Giants are one of the a very few teams with a legitimate top 4, and it’s unclear if Don Drysdale‘s 2nd half resurgence earns him a start in the opening game, given that Orel Hershiser (19-5, 3.69), Smokey Joe Williams (12-13, 3.93), and Fernando Valenzuela (14-5, 3.69) each had better seasons than Drysdale’s 11-8, 5.66 record.

The bullpen sports 2 of the dominant relievers of the league, with closer Eric Gagne and setup man Trevor Hildenberger, and Burleigh Grimes and Sandy Koufax provide excellent middle inning help when needed.

The offense is a notch below the pitching: Ron Cey and Mike Piazza are stars, and Dan Brouthers, John Briggs, Jackie Robinson, Beals Becker, and Duke Snider are all quite good. Vern Stephens and Dickie Thon seem to be sufficient at SS, and the versatility of Ray Dandridge helps around the IF, despite his lackluster offense.

George Hendrick has been lights out since being brought over in a trade, and makes the playoff roster ahead of swing starter Jim Bunning.

#Philadelphia Stars

Quite a turnaround for Philly, who were horrible last year, mediocre much of this year, and then turned it on the final few months to finish in 2nd place in the Effa Manley Division.

It’s an odd team in many ways. Clearly, Charles Rogan and his unique combination of a 308/362/620 slash line and legitimate #2 starter mound performances count for a lot, as does Aaron Judge breaking out with an OPS over 1.000, 63 homers, 133 RBI’s, and 108 runs scored. Scott Rolen is excellent at 3B, and Rico Carty held off the demons of age for another productive season.

And then the question marks start … Bill Dickey seems to be the answer behind the plate, but is untested, Sherry Magee could be useful, and the newly acquired Jim Fregosi might finally provide some stability at SS. Seems, could be, might …

The rotation is … odd. Hardie Henderson (18-12, 3.78) is probably the #1, but Steve Carlton‘s stuff is electric, despite a 12-13 record and a 5.05 ERA. Then, Rogan. Behind those, JM Ward has been far, far, far better than his 6-10 record would indicate and lefty Ray Collins is dependable.

Bob Howry, Ted Kennedy, Fred Cambria, and Pedro Feliciano form a solid, no-name bullpen (with trade acquisition Mark Melancon‘s selection to the postseason roster in doubt).

In the end, Melancon made it, as did the disappointing Harry Hooper, but that was more a function of a lack of relevant alternatives than anything else.

#Houston Colt 45’s

Most saw this Houston team as being a year or 2 away, but they kept winning through the Summer, and ended up topping the Marvin Miller Division by a comfortable margin.

The pitching staff is not structured as it was to start the season, as both Stephen Strasburg and Roy Oswalt have struggled mightily all season. Still, it’s a strong opening trio, led by the dominant Toad Ramsey (16-10, 3.23) and Roger Clemens (17-10, 3.71) and the now-healthy Ice Box Chamberlain (4-4, 3.56).

The bullpen has been poor all season, with Sparky Lyle (brought over to be the closer) struggling and Tug McGraw having his issues as well. Jim Kern has been a surprising bright spot, and Andrew Chafin and Roberto Osuna have been solid enough.

The offense is an intriguing mix. Carlos Correa, Jeff Bagwell, and Tony Gwynn are a solid core and Paul Goldschmidt has forced his way into the conversation in about 1/3 of a season’s work. Gentleman Jim O’Rourke has bounced back from a poor first season, and the rest of the pieces–mostly Jim Wynn and teenage phenom Pete Hill–are solid enough.

The worst news for Houston is that C Will Smith, who has absolutely destroyed WBL pitching since his recall, is not eligible for the postseason, putting the onus behind the plate on Jorge Posada, who has struggled. Given the presence of Gorman Thomas–who has also been on fire in limited action–we may see O’Rourke catching more than anticipated.

Thomas’ performance forced Casey Stengel off the playoff roster, as, especially with Dock Ellis injured for a few days, both Strasbourg and Oswalt made it.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

It came down to a playoff, but baseball fans are happy to see the ABC’s make the playoffs, as it extends the season for the best pitcher in baseball, Luis Padrón, and the emerging superstar Oscar Charleston.

The postseason likely brings an end to Indianapolis’ 6 man rotation, as the team will try to maximize the starts for Padrón (23-3, 3.22) and Johnny Cueto (12-14, 4.62). Eppa Rixey, Guy White, and Joe Lake are the most likely candidates behind those 2.

The back end of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but both Rob Dibble and Rob Murphy have struggle of late, leaving Jack Billingham and the surprising Mike LaCoss as the strongest performers at the moment.

Offensively, this is Charleston’s team, with the young CF slashing 337/381/619 with 38 homers, 130 RBIs, and 101 runs scored. Joey Votto and George Foster have been excellent and while Johnny Bench fell short of last year’s heights, 46 homers and 116 RBIs from behind the plate is nothing to sneeze at.

Chris Sabo has mostly displaced Ed Charles at 3B, but the biggest issue is the absence of Joe Morgan, who will miss the postseason through injury. Morgan was among the best in the game, and without him, the middle infield becomes pretty mediocre, relying on Tommy Helms and Barry Larkin.

#Predictions

Brooklyn is just that much better than Indianapolis across the board, so I think the Royal Giants take that one, 4-2.

The Houston/Philadelphia series is even harder to predict, and I think it is either very close, going the full 7 games, or Houston’s offense clicks on all cylinders and the Colt 45’s win in 5. Let’s say the former, with Houston edging it in a final contest.

TWIWBL 83.7: Marvin Miller Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Houston Colt 45s81-75.519—
Kansas City Monarchs77-79.4944
Indianapolis ABC’s77-79.4944
Wandering House of David75-81.4816
Birmingham Black Barons72-83.4658.5
Marvin Miller Division | 23 September

#Birmingham Black Barons

Look for the impressive Tommy Davis to see action in all of the remaining games for the Black Barons.

2 homers from Bobby Grich (1 a go-ahead grand slam) and 2 hits from Ryan Braun carried Birmingham to an 11-9 win over Brooklyn.

Jim Pagliaroni hit 2 out and Herman Long doubled 3 times as Birmingham topped Brooklyn, 10-9.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Following their practice all season, Indianapolis modified its 6-man rotation to reflect recent performance: Rube Foster was moved to the pen with Guy White joining the starters.

It’s still not clear who will take most of the time at 2B in Joe Morgan‘s prolonged absence. There’s zero chance of either Tommy Helms or Denis Menke replacing Morgan’s performance, but still … Helms is the better hitter, but Menke has significantly more power.

Johnny Bench hit 2 out as the ABC’s topped Philadelphia, 15-8.

#Kansas City Monarchs

Smokey Joe Wood‘s return to the rotation leaves the Monarchs with a pleasant dilemma, as both Matt Morris and Adam Wainwright have impressed in their limited opportunities. For now, both head to the pen.

TWIWBL 82.6: Marvin Miller Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Houston Colt 45s78-71.523—
Kansas City Monarchs74-76.4934.5
Indianapolis ABC’s74-76.4934.5
Wandering House of David72-77.4836
Birmingham Black Barons70-78.4737.5
Marvin Miller Division | 17 September

#Birmingham Black Barons

Jim Pagliaroni hit out 2 as the Black Barons topped Ottawa, 8-5.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

The ABC’s got some very bad news as they struggle to hold onto the final NL Wild Card spot: 2B extraordinaire Joe Morgan is done for the season with a muscle strain. Denis Menke was recalled, and is likely to split time at second with Tommy Helms for the rest of the way.

#Kansas City Monarchs

Smokey Joe Wood returned to starting duties with a bang, allowing only 2 hits and 1 run in a complete game, 6-1 win over Birmingham. The win pulls the Monarchs into a dead heat with Indianapolis for the final NL Wild Card spot.

#Wandering House of David

Kerry Wood‘s season is over, as the swing starter will be out of action for a few months with a shoulder strain. Claude Osteen was recalled, giving the House of David another lefty option as the season winds down.

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