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TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Previews II – Shortstops

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On October 2, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here.

#AL – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Original Selections: George Wright, Bobby Wallace, & Freddy Parent.

Baltimore’s Wallace is is the likely starter here, slashing 325/427/471, but after him it gets difficult. Parent is hitting well for a shortstop, slashing 275/341/464, but he’s been slightly less than a fulltime player for Ottawa.

Behind those two, the House of David’s Ernie Banks, Memphis’ Vern Stephens, and Los Angeles’ Wright are all pretty identical offensively, with OPS’ in the .770s. Banks has 8 homeruns (as does Parent), and 31 RBIs to lead the group.

Detroit’s George Davis, Los Angeles’ Wright, and Kansas City’s Ozzie Smith have been the best defensive shortstops in the AL.

So, given all that, I think we go with Wallace, Banks, and Wright. But if Parent continues to post an OPS over ,800 while staying in the lineup, he’ll have to displace either Banks or Wright.

The AI avoids the confusion, only selecting Wallace.

#NL – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

Original Selections: Jim Fregosi, Derek Jeter, & Arky Vaughan.

Homestead’s Vaughan made the original list solely on the strength of his defense, and the conundrum continues: with an OPS of .670 to go along with the best defensive numbers in the league, Vaughan remains a borderline choice.

Portland’s Fregosi is the likely starter right now, slashing 281/344/444, and the Black Yankees’ Jeter isn’t that far behind at 288/335/415. So the two of them are in.

After that, it’s between Vaughan and three others: San Francisco’s Dick Lundy is hitting well enough to make it, but just recently moved from a reserve role to the starting lineup; Birmingham’s Troy Tulowitzki and Miami’s Robin Yount are both hitting around the same level as Vaughan.

So, right now, I would stick with same trio as before, but with a sense that one of the others–perhaps Lundy, perhaps Yount–gets on a hot streak to force the conversation.

The AI ducked the issue again, selecting only Fregosi.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Previews II – Second Basemen

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On October 1, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here.

#AL – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Original selections: Eddie Collins, Tim Raines, Larry Gardner.

After struggling briefly on his return from the DL, Chicago’s Collins has resumed being the class of the second basemen in the league with a 309/431/517 slash line. He’s the clear starter.

But after that, it gets awfully muddled. Purely by OPS, you would go with Kansas City’s Rogers Hornsby (309/390/500) and Baltimore’s Gardner (288/419/464).

But Ottawa’s Raines certainly deserves strong consideration (and he may be Ottawa’s only representative in the midseason classic). Raines’ OPS is a shade worse at 282/365/445, but he leads the group with 7 homeruns and 38 runs scored, and is way ahead with 38 steals, putting him behind only Collins in WAR (2.5 to 1.8). Los Angeles’ Bobby Grich is also at a 1.8 WAR, slashing 300/374/485.

Grich sits just behind Collins and the New York Gothams’ Cookie Rojas in the defensive rankings. (Houston’s HR Johnson–who has hit well enough to be in the conversation–has been among the worst defensive 2B in the league, moving him clearly out of contention at this point.)

So, what to do …

This is a position I expect to change a little as the month plays out, but right now, I would go with Raines and Gardner behind Collins. But I could also be convinced to carry four to include Hornsby. And, if Baltimore drops off as a team, that probably weakens Gardner’s argument as well.

Somewhat inexplicably, the AI goes with Collins, Johnson, and Raines.

#NL – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

Original selections: Chase Utley, Jimmy Bloodworth, Tom Herr.

Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson presents a bit of a conundrum, having split his time almost equally between 1B and 2B. He clearly hasn’t hit well enough to make it as a 1B, but his 291/350/511 is pretty spectacular for a middle infielder. For now, I’m going to punt on him though, and perhaps add a utility category for each league in the final selections.

The feel-good story of the season so far, Birmingham’s Herr, is not only still performing at an all-star level, he’s likely the starter right now, hitting 338/381/455. It doesn’t seem sustainable, but it didn’t at the last update either.

San Francisco’s Bloodworth sits just behind him in OPS at 288/328/488 with 9 homeruns and 25 RBIs. Utley has been in a slump, but he remains the only other candidate with an OPS over .800, and at 263/335/481 still would make it, although a surge by Homestead’s Davey Johnson or Indianapolis’ Joe Morgan could remove him.

Utley and Bloodworth have been the best defensive 2B so far, which helps them here as well.

So I would stick with the same three, just in a different order. The AI selects only Herr, which is amusing.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – First Basemen

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On September 30, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here.

#AL – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Original selections: Hank Greenberg, Boog Powell, Frank Thomas.

The first spot is easy: Detroit’s Greenberg sits at 320/377/625 with 14 homeruns and 51 RBIs. So, he’s in.

Chicago’s Frank Thomas is clearly an all-star, but he has only played 20 games at 1B, so we’re going to slide him over to DH in all likelihood. Baltimore’s Frank Robinson has played even less 1B than Thomas, and will be considered with the outfielders.

Taking those two out of the running leads to it getting a little more interesting.

Memphis’ Bill White has improved to 312/395/537 and Baltimore’s Dan McGann has been steady all year at 306/411/481. Kansas City’s Powell has slumped all the way to 282/386/446, and while that’s perfectly respectable, his argument for inclusion here is certainly weaker now.

Add to the mix that McGann has been the best defensive 1B of the group by quite a bit, and the selection now should be Greenberg, White, and McGann. Of this group, the AI only includes Greenberg (Thomas is selected as the 2nd 1B, Robinson in the OF).

#NL – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

Original selections: Lou Gehrig, Kent Hrbek, Mike Epstein.

There is similar upheaval here: it turns out New York’s Gehrig has only played 15 games at 1B (he plays as a DH, with Don Mattingly manning the bag). So he’s out of contention here.

Portland’s Hrbek and Homestead’s Epstein remain clear selections. Hrbek is slashing 327/398/599 with 15 homeruns; while Epstein is at 331/433/548. The third slot is really pretty clear as well, actually: Cleveland’s Jake Stahl‘s power output has moved him into contention with a slash line of 287/351/592.

That makes it Hrbek, Epstein, and Stahl. The AI actually goes with those three, plus Gehrig, so it’s not a terribly controversial choice.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – Catchers

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On September 29, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here.

AL Catchers: Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Original Selections: Buster Posey; Curt Blefary, Elrod Hendricks.

Nothings really changed here. Detroit’s Bill Carrigan is slashing 318/392/545, but he’s their reserve backstop (even though he is clearly pushing Ed Bailey for more playing time).

The Baltimore Black Sox’s Blefary and the New York Gothams’ Posey have OPS’ over 1.000, with Blefary in the top 3 in the league in homeruns. Hendricks of the House of David is the only other backstop with an OPS over .900.

Ottawa’s Emil Gross has thrown out 37% of runners attempting to steal, but its nowhere near enough to move him even to the fringes of the conversations. So, we remain committed to the same trio, as does the AI.

NL Catchers: Effa Manley & Cum Posey Divisions

Original Selections: Joe Mauer, Johnny Bench, Josh Gibson.

This gets difficult.

And it’s all Thurman Munson‘s fault. The New York Black Yankees’ catcher is now slashing 317/367/540 for an OPS just over .900.

Portland’s Joe Mauer is a shoo-in: his OPS sits at exactly 1.000, with a slash line of 339/433/567.

But the OPS’ behind him run .940/.908/.894/882. Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench has the .940. He also has 10 homeruns and 30 RBIs to lead this group, so let’s say he’s in. Here’s the rest:

NameTeamOPSBAOPSSLGWARCS%cERA
Thurman MunsonNYA.908.317.367.5401.7273.93
Josh GibsonHOM.894.319.409.4852.1305.92
John EllisDET.882.280.331.5510.6163.83

Ellis has played much less than the others, but also has 8 homeruns to lead the trio.

Munson has been behind the plate for the most innings in the league–10 more than Gibson. Factor that into his cERA, and their nearly indistinguishable offensive numbers, and I think the third spot goes to him now.

The AI picks all four–Mauer, Bench, Munson, and Gibson. (Ellis is really just listed for context and because he does have an outside shot at making it.)

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – NL Relievers

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On September 28, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here, which selected Johan Santana, Terry Adams, Aroldis Chapman, Rheal Cormier, and Rob Dibble.

Portland’s Santana continues to be a lock, leading the league with 17 saves to go along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1-1 record.

But after him, all of the closers have some question marks. San Francisco’s Rod Beck has 11 saves in only 11 innings to go along with a microscopic 0.82 ERA and an even more impressive 0.45 WHIP. So the question there is if he can maintain that level of performance. The same question remains for Miami’s Chapman–yet to allow a run in 13 innings, with 9 saves.

Philadelphia’s Bob Howry and Cleveland’s Adams both have the saves (14 and 12, respectively), but Howry has an ERA of 4.58 and Adams a WHIP of 1.71.

Brooklyn’s Watty Clark may be the best candidate behind Santana, sitting at 3-1 with 10 saves, a 2.04 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

After those closers you would have to consider Philadelphia’s duo of Ron Reed, who continues to be excellent, with 11 holds and a 2.83 ERA and Cormier, 4-0 with 4 holds and a 2.64 ERA. Brooklyn’s Eric Gagne (6 holds, 2.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and San Francisco’s Ken Howell (1.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) have forced themselves into the conversation as well.

The bullpens are deep here: Dibble is still pitching well for Indianapolis, and the New York Black Yankees’ Ralph Citarella and San Francisco’s Charlie Root have pitched themselves into the conversation as well.

The AI goes with Cormier, Reed, Howell, and Birmingham’s Hoyt Wilhelm (2.59 ERA in 18 appearances).

I would go with Santana, Chapman, Robinson, Clark, and Howell. I think.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Previews II – AL Relievers

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On September 27, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Preview I here, which selected Tom Henke, Jonathan Papelbon, Chuck Finley, Craig Kimbrel, and Adam Wainwright.

This gets complicated pretty quickly: both Finley and Wainwright are now in their teams’ starting rotations (Finley for Los Angeles, Wainwright for Kansas City), but both still are worthy of consideration. Finley is 2-0 with 4 holds, a 3.16 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP and Wainwright is 0-1 with 1 hold, a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.

For closers, Henke and Detroit’s Mike Henneman continue to lead the way. Henke was injured in Ottawa’s most recent game, so that will play a factor, but he’s currently 0-3 with 12 saves for the Mounties. The problem is recent struggles have ballooned his ERA to 5.00–combine that with his injury, and he may no longer be in contention.

Henneman is 1-2 with 10 saves and a 3.46 ERA, but he would probably be behind Memphis’ Joe Beggs, who has yet to give up an earned run to go along with his 8 saves. For them, along with the New York Gothams’ Brian Wilson (6 saves, 2.40 ERA), the next few weeks will be key.

Kimbrel is still a likely choice, sitting at 1-1 with 8 holds and a 3.09 ERA for Kansas City, as is Memphis’ Papelbon (0-3, 3 saves, 4 holds, 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Baltimore’s Ned Garvin has to receive strong consideration as well. Garvin has appeared in 12 games, starting 4 of them, and has a 5-1 record with 2 holds, a 2.09 ERA, and a 0.87 WHIP.

Two more names to consider. The House of David’s Bob Rush has 13 relief appearances and 1 start, having just moved into the rotation. So far, he is 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. The Gothams’ Mike Norris continues to excel as well, appearing in 22 games out of the bullpen with a 2-1 record, 1 save, 3 holds, and a 1.91 ERA.

The AI picks Garvin and Rush as starters, and then, in addition to Norris, Houston’s Andrew Chafin, Memphis’ Turk Farrell, and Baltimore’s Buddy Groom.

Of those, Groom makes sense, both on his own merit (4 holds, 1.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and as a nod to Baltimore’s overall record. Chafin has been quite good (3-1, 2.25 ERA), and Farrell is incomprehensible: 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA just doesn’t cut it.

So, given all that, I would go with Garvin, Kimbrel, Papelbon, Rush, and one of the closers. Let’s say Beggs. But Groom has probably been more valuable than any of the closers, it’s just wanting someone with some saves to be in there as well.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – NL Starting Pitchers

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On September 26, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Initial preview here, selecting Walter Johnson (Portland), Don Drysedale (Brooklyn), Camilo Pascual (Miami), Ron Guidry (New York Black Yankees), and Cy Young (Cleveland).

Johnson (6-1, 3.58 ERA), Drysedale (4-2, 2.71 ERA, which leads the league), and Guidry (5-4, 3.23 ERA) remain obvious choices, and while Young has fallen off a bit, Pascual, at 4-4 with a 3.19 ERA for a truly poor Miami team is likely still to make it.

That leaves one slot, with San Francisco’s Lefty Grove (5-2, 3.23 ERA) and Philadelphia’s Ray Collins (6-2, 3.20 ERA) as the likely candidates, although a case still could be made for Young (4-2, 3.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).

In addition to the 3 shoo-ins, the AI picks Collins, Grove, and Pascual along with Brooklyn’s Frank Knauss and San Francisco’s Diego Segui. Knauss has certainly pitched well, but he’s only made 6 starts, and while he’s gone 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA, it’s just not enough yet to merit consideration. Segui has seen even fewer innings and, again, while a 2.36 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP are impressive, you have to be putting up Hal Newhouser numbers to make the all star team as a starter with that few innings.

So we’ll go with Walter Johnson as the starter (although he needs to win another game someday: Johnson has 2 no-decisions and 1 loss in his last 3 starts), along with Drysedale, Guidry, Grove, and Collins.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – AL Starting Pitchers

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On September 24, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Initial preview here, selecting Gerrit Cole, CC Sabathia, Tricky Nichols, Ed Walsh, and Dennis Martinez.

It doesn’t look terribly different at this point. Los Angeles’ Cole (7-3) and Baltimore’s Martinez (7-1) are the only 7 game winners in the league, so you have to assume they make it, although Cole’s 4.04 ERA will lead to some arguments. There can be little disagreement about Martinez, though, as El Presidente has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP for the best team in baseball.

Behind them, Kansas City’s Andy Petitte (4-3, 3.31 ERA) and Sabathia (5-4, 3.65 ERA) deserve some consideration, as do the House of David’s Jack Taylor (only a 3-5 record, but a sub-4 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP) and Chicago’s Ben Sheets (5-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).

Nichols has fallen out of the conversation, and Walsh is on the DL for about a month, so they’re no longer in the running.

The AI does some interesting things, selecting Baltimore’s Ned Garvin, Detroit’s Johnny Marcum and Hal Newhouser, and the House of David’s Bob Rush along with Martinez and Petitte. Garvin, Marcum, and Rush have just recently moved into their team’s starting rotations. All three are strong choices, especially Garvin, who is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 8 relief appearances and 4 starts, but I’m still considering them as relievers at the moment.

Newhouser is a decent possibility. He’s made 7 starts, so it could all fall apart, but so far he looks like a potential ace, with only a 2-1 record, but a microscopic 1.93 ERA. Clearly, if he keeps that up over his next 3 or 4 starts, he’ll warrant very strong consideration.

So at this point I would go with Martinez as the starter, with Cole, Sabathia, Pettite and … let’s say the Gothams’ Juan Marichal, who is 6-1, with a high ERA that is likely to drop (I have a fear that Newhouser will implode, or be injured over the next few weeks).

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Right Fielders

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On August 5, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Right Fielders – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The problem in the AL is there are four must-haves.

It took a little while for Detroit’s 20-year old wunderkind Ty Cobb to force his way into the starting lineup, but he’s slashing 348/385/607 and clearly deserves consideration here.

Memphis’ Ted Williams has been rock solid for the Red Sox at 304/391/567 with 10 homeruns and 34 RBI.

Shoeless Joe Jackson is slashing 343/440/614 with 11 homeruns and 38 RBI for Chicago.

And, Kansas City’s Stan Musial is at 361/422/600 with 9 homeruns and 35 RBI.

You can really stop the discussion there.

If I were limited to three, I would drop Cobb due to his having significantly less playing time. But he’s an everyday player now, and I would gladly sacrifice elsewhere to include all four of them.

The AI agrees, picking all four to the summer classic.

#NL Right Fielders – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

One of the surprises of the league has been the superlative performance of Cleveland’s Ron Blomberg, who is hitting 335/411/615 with 11 homeruns and 35 RBIs. The starting RF is either Blomberg or San Francisco’s Reggie Jackson, who is chugging along at 362/483/623 without showing any signs of a slump.

There is a gap, then, to the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle (who has seen more time in RF than CF so far) at 297/421/436 and Miami’s Jose Canseco (296/370/456).

It’s a bit of a conundrum. Roberto Clemente of the Grays has been the best defensive RF, maybe, but at 276/300/411 just hasn’t produced enough.

So, Blomberg and Jackson are shoo-ins, and if I had to pick someone after them, it would be Mantle, unless Canseco ends up being Miami’s only representative?

The AI cheats, picking Jackson’s teammate, Bobby Bonds, who is really a CF, as the 3rd right fielder.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Center Fielders

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On August 2, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

Put me in Coach, I’m ready to play …

#AL Center Fielders – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The Pete Browning question looms large here. The House of David CF is slashing 385/419/606, but is currently on his second stint on the DL. He’s missed about 1/4 of the team’s games so far. But that–along with 16 SBs–is a helluva slash line.

The New York Gothams’ Willie Mays is at 354/405/536 with 38 RBI and Reggie Smith has been the sparkplug for Memphis’ offense all season, slashing 302/360/489. The same could be said for Houston’s Jimmy Wynn, hitting 291/402/475.

That leaves a group including Chicago’s Mike Fiore (262/403/404) and Los Angeles’ Mike Trout (294/375/395) on the outside looking in.

Fiore, Mays, and Smith have been the strongest defensive CFers, with Mays probably the best, so that’s covered here as well.

I’d go with Mays, Smith, and Wynn, with Mays as the starter; the AI selects the same trio.

#NL Center Fielders – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

The Black Yankees’ Eric Davis is hitting 291/338/555 which, frankly, is excellent, but not spectacular. But he has 14 homeruns, 20 stolen bases (without being caught) and a WBL-leading 52 RBIs.

The San Francisco Sea Lions’ Bobby Bonds has hit even better than Davis, at 333/399/616, but is just returning from the DL. Portland’s Bobby Murcer, at 329/410/539 is in the mix, especially with his 30 RBIs.

Interestingly, Homestead’s Andrew McCutcheon (309/378/506) and Indianapolis’ Oscar Charleston (331/365/517) have very similar overall numbers to Davis, but a lot less media attention. Charleston has stellar defensive numbers, and McCutcheon adds 15 steals into the mix.

Finally, Brooklyn’s Duke Snider (298/344/506 with 10 homeruns) is at the fringes of the conversation.

Limited to three, I don’t see how you don’t select Davis and Bonds. I really want to select Charleston, but I think Murcer has to be the final choice at this moment.

The AI goes with Davis, McCutcheon, and Murcer, with Bonds selected as a RF.

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