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TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – NL Starting Pitchers

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On September 26, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Initial preview here, selecting Walter Johnson (Portland), Don Drysedale (Brooklyn), Camilo Pascual (Miami), Ron Guidry (New York Black Yankees), and Cy Young (Cleveland).

Johnson (6-1, 3.58 ERA), Drysedale (4-2, 2.71 ERA, which leads the league), and Guidry (5-4, 3.23 ERA) remain obvious choices, and while Young has fallen off a bit, Pascual, at 4-4 with a 3.19 ERA for a truly poor Miami team is likely still to make it.

That leaves one slot, with San Francisco’s Lefty Grove (5-2, 3.23 ERA) and Philadelphia’s Ray Collins (6-2, 3.20 ERA) as the likely candidates, although a case still could be made for Young (4-2, 3.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).

In addition to the 3 shoo-ins, the AI picks Collins, Grove, and Pascual along with Brooklyn’s Frank Knauss and San Francisco’s Diego Segui. Knauss has certainly pitched well, but he’s only made 6 starts, and while he’s gone 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA, it’s just not enough yet to merit consideration. Segui has seen even fewer innings and, again, while a 2.36 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP are impressive, you have to be putting up Hal Newhouser numbers to make the all star team as a starter with that few innings.

So we’ll go with Walter Johnson as the starter (although he needs to win another game someday: Johnson has 2 no-decisions and 1 loss in his last 3 starts), along with Drysedale, Guidry, Grove, and Collins.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview II – AL Starting Pitchers

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On September 24, 2021

In All Star Games

{ With under three weeks until the All Star Teams are announced, we’re looking at what’s changed since our original previews. }

Initial preview here, selecting Gerrit Cole, CC Sabathia, Tricky Nichols, Ed Walsh, and Dennis Martinez.

It doesn’t look terribly different at this point. Los Angeles’ Cole (7-3) and Baltimore’s Martinez (7-1) are the only 7 game winners in the league, so you have to assume they make it, although Cole’s 4.04 ERA will lead to some arguments. There can be little disagreement about Martinez, though, as El Presidente has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP for the best team in baseball.

Behind them, Kansas City’s Andy Petitte (4-3, 3.31 ERA) and Sabathia (5-4, 3.65 ERA) deserve some consideration, as do the House of David’s Jack Taylor (only a 3-5 record, but a sub-4 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP) and Chicago’s Ben Sheets (5-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).

Nichols has fallen out of the conversation, and Walsh is on the DL for about a month, so they’re no longer in the running.

The AI does some interesting things, selecting Baltimore’s Ned Garvin, Detroit’s Johnny Marcum and Hal Newhouser, and the House of David’s Bob Rush along with Martinez and Petitte. Garvin, Marcum, and Rush have just recently moved into their team’s starting rotations. All three are strong choices, especially Garvin, who is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 8 relief appearances and 4 starts, but I’m still considering them as relievers at the moment.

Newhouser is a decent possibility. He’s made 7 starts, so it could all fall apart, but so far he looks like a potential ace, with only a 2-1 record, but a microscopic 1.93 ERA. Clearly, if he keeps that up over his next 3 or 4 starts, he’ll warrant very strong consideration.

So at this point I would go with Martinez as the starter, with Cole, Sabathia, Pettite and … let’s say the Gothams’ Juan Marichal, who is 6-1, with a high ERA that is likely to drop (I have a fear that Newhouser will implode, or be injured over the next few weeks).

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Right Fielders

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On August 5, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Right Fielders – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The problem in the AL is there are four must-haves.

It took a little while for Detroit’s 20-year old wunderkind Ty Cobb to force his way into the starting lineup, but he’s slashing 348/385/607 and clearly deserves consideration here.

Memphis’ Ted Williams has been rock solid for the Red Sox at 304/391/567 with 10 homeruns and 34 RBI.

Shoeless Joe Jackson is slashing 343/440/614 with 11 homeruns and 38 RBI for Chicago.

And, Kansas City’s Stan Musial is at 361/422/600 with 9 homeruns and 35 RBI.

You can really stop the discussion there.

If I were limited to three, I would drop Cobb due to his having significantly less playing time. But he’s an everyday player now, and I would gladly sacrifice elsewhere to include all four of them.

The AI agrees, picking all four to the summer classic.

#NL Right Fielders – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

One of the surprises of the league has been the superlative performance of Cleveland’s Ron Blomberg, who is hitting 335/411/615 with 11 homeruns and 35 RBIs. The starting RF is either Blomberg or San Francisco’s Reggie Jackson, who is chugging along at 362/483/623 without showing any signs of a slump.

There is a gap, then, to the Black Yankees’ Mickey Mantle (who has seen more time in RF than CF so far) at 297/421/436 and Miami’s Jose Canseco (296/370/456).

It’s a bit of a conundrum. Roberto Clemente of the Grays has been the best defensive RF, maybe, but at 276/300/411 just hasn’t produced enough.

So, Blomberg and Jackson are shoo-ins, and if I had to pick someone after them, it would be Mantle, unless Canseco ends up being Miami’s only representative?

The AI cheats, picking Jackson’s teammate, Bobby Bonds, who is really a CF, as the 3rd right fielder.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Center Fielders

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On August 2, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

Put me in Coach, I’m ready to play …

#AL Center Fielders – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The Pete Browning question looms large here. The House of David CF is slashing 385/419/606, but is currently on his second stint on the DL. He’s missed about 1/4 of the team’s games so far. But that–along with 16 SBs–is a helluva slash line.

The New York Gothams’ Willie Mays is at 354/405/536 with 38 RBI and Reggie Smith has been the sparkplug for Memphis’ offense all season, slashing 302/360/489. The same could be said for Houston’s Jimmy Wynn, hitting 291/402/475.

That leaves a group including Chicago’s Mike Fiore (262/403/404) and Los Angeles’ Mike Trout (294/375/395) on the outside looking in.

Fiore, Mays, and Smith have been the strongest defensive CFers, with Mays probably the best, so that’s covered here as well.

I’d go with Mays, Smith, and Wynn, with Mays as the starter; the AI selects the same trio.

#NL Center Fielders – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

The Black Yankees’ Eric Davis is hitting 291/338/555 which, frankly, is excellent, but not spectacular. But he has 14 homeruns, 20 stolen bases (without being caught) and a WBL-leading 52 RBIs.

The San Francisco Sea Lions’ Bobby Bonds has hit even better than Davis, at 333/399/616, but is just returning from the DL. Portland’s Bobby Murcer, at 329/410/539 is in the mix, especially with his 30 RBIs.

Interestingly, Homestead’s Andrew McCutcheon (309/378/506) and Indianapolis’ Oscar Charleston (331/365/517) have very similar overall numbers to Davis, but a lot less media attention. Charleston has stellar defensive numbers, and McCutcheon adds 15 steals into the mix.

Finally, Brooklyn’s Duke Snider (298/344/506 with 10 homeruns) is at the fringes of the conversation.

Limited to three, I don’t see how you don’t select Davis and Bonds. I really want to select Charleston, but I think Murcer has to be the final choice at this moment.

The AI goes with Davis, McCutcheon, and Murcer, with Bonds selected as a RF.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Left Fielders

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On August 1, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Left Fielders – Bill James & Cum Posey Division

The leader in the AL is pretty clear: Baltimore’s Frank Robinson has been the key to their surprising season at 341/417/553, and is a fair bit ahead of the rest of the pack.

Probably the best candidates behind Robinson are Chicago’s Duffy Lewis at 311/349/571 with 11 homeruns and 25 RBIs and the House of David’s George Stone, who is hitting 322/412/517.

But Los Angeles’ Don Buford deserves some strong consideration: Buford is hitting 320/412/473, and has been the key to the Angels’ offense all season, scoring 28 runs. Detroit’s Oscar Gamble has hit a bit of a slump, but at 267/385/491 with 28 RBIs is still in the mix.

Buford and Gamble are the only folks here who have done much defensively, but we’re not talking about the great gloves of the WBL with this group.

The AI goes for Lewis, Robinson, and Stone, which is hard to argue with, but I would probably slide Buford ahead of Stone.

#NL Left Fielders – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Division

The NL starter is pretty easy: the New York Black Yankees’ Babe Ruth is the dominant player in the league at 337/445/697, 16 HRs, and 45 RBIs. And that’s after a recent slump.

After Ruth, Philadelphia’s Rico Carty is a no-brainer at 354/416/570.

And then it gets complicated.

Ruth’s teammate, Albert Belle, is slashing 322/375/579 in somewhat limited playing time, and then there is a large gap to a trio with OPS’ in the low 800s: San Francisco’s Wally Moon, Brooklyn’s Roy White, and Homestead’s Rick Reichardt.

White has been one of–if not the best–LF defensively, so he’ll get my nod for the third slot along with Ruth and Carty.

The AI only selects Ruth and Carty, which is also defensible, given the OF quality in CF and RF.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Shortstops

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On July 30, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Shortstops – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

It’s a two man race for the starting position between Los Angeles’ George Wright (290/342/500) and Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace (314/412/436). Both of them should make it.

Behind them, it gets trickier. The pool probably contains Memphis’ Vern Stephens (273/349/439), the House of David’s Ernie Banks (289/306/440), and Ottawa’s Freddy Parent (263/336/432). Banks has 27 RBIs, which leads the group by quite a bit.

Eugenio Suarez of the New York Gothams is slashing 338/378/574, but has probably not played enough to warrant an all-star selection.

But, these are shortstops, so their defensive performance should count for something. Here, Parent has the clear edge, with Wright and Kansas City’s Ozzie Smith (who at 265/349/325 just hasn’t hit enough to force his way into the conversation) being the dominant fielders in the AL.

So, let’s call it Wright, Wallace, and Parent. The AI agrees, but avoids the difficult question by selecting Wright and Wallace.

#NL Shortstops – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

Portland’s Jim Fregosi (275/350/450) is the only clear selection, and therefore the starter.

Offensively, you could argue for the Black Yankees’ Derek Jeter (289/338/407). But he’s really the only other candidate with a decent OPS.

Defensively, Homestead’s Arky Vaughan has probably been the best shortstop in the WBL to date (it’s either him or Detroit’s George Davis), so in this weak of a division, he could get a nod.

I’ll go with Fregosi, Jeter, and Vaughan at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if San Francisco’s Dick Lundy or Birmingham’s Troy Tulowitzki forced their way into the conversation by the end.

The AI punted on this one, selecting not a single shortstop to the NL squad.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Third Basemen

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On July 28, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Third Basemen: Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Detroit’s Bob Bailey has been one of the surprise performers of the year so far, slashing 328/413/565. The problem is that he’s really been a DH for Detroit all season and, if he makes the all-star team, it should be at that position.

Doug Rader of the Los Angeles Angels merits strong consideration for the starting position. He’s second in the league in RBI with 49, and is hitting 317/365/511 to go with it.

The challenge is who the third selection could be. Kansas City’s Albert Pujols is hitting 304/368/492, but plays as much at LF, 1B, and DH as 3B. If either Chicago’s Dick Allen (253/302/482) or Ottawa’s Anthony Rendon (294/387/412) get hot, they could force their way into the conversation.

Perhaps the right selection is the New York Gothams’ Pinky Higgins, who has been very steady at 316/382/456.

Bailey’s teammate–and Detroit’s actual third baseman, Jimmy Collins, is hitting 236/284/401, which is nowhere near all-star levels. But he has been the best fulltime defensive 3B in the division (Baltimore’s Brooks Robinson has been even better with the glove, but absolutely putrid offensively), so perhaps that gives him a shot?

The AI prefers Bailey, Rader, and Pujols (as a LF). Removing Bailey from consideration here, I would select Rader, Allen (predicting he hits another hot streak and overtakes Rendon), and Higgins.

#NL Third Baseman: Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

The first two selections are pretty easy: Philadelphia’s Scott Rolen (306/373/556) and Portland’s Buddy Bell (325/388/537) should both make it, with Bell looking like the current starter. Rolen and Bell have also been the best defensive 3B, making the choice even easier.

After that, there are a lot of questions. Miami’s Manny Machado has 9 homeruns, but not much else, and New York’s Mike Schmidt has needed a recent surge to get his numbers up to 258/313/484.

The AI goes with Rolen and Bell. I’m going to predict that Schmidt continues his improved performance, and forces himself into the conversation as well.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Second Basemen

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On July 26, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Second Basemen – Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Right now, all of the AL 2B will likely come from teams in the Cum Posey division.

Eddie Collins was the best 2B in the WBL when he got injured. He’s just off the disabled list, so we’ll see how that goes. But he was hitting 305/455/505 with 15 stolen bases for Chicago, to go along with the best defensive numbers in the league.

But choosing the other two is hard. Larry Gardner has been key to Baltimore’s surprising season. and his raw numbers–308/434/484–are hard to ignore. Ottawa’s Tim Raines trails only Collins in WAR, and in addition to hitting 290/383/477 with 7 homeruns and scoring 28 runs, he’s stolen 30 bases while only being caught 3 times.

But either a slight slump from Gardner, or a hot streak by either Kansas City’s Rogers Hornsby (285/363/474) or Houston’s HR Johnson (333/373/448) could change the considerations.

The AI selects Collins and Raines, so no argument there.

#NL Second Basemen – Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

In the NL, it’s a pretty easy choice, but one that I suspect will change. Right now, the best at second is Philadelphia’s Chase Utley, who is hitting 296/372/557 with decent defense. San Francisco’s Jimmy Bloodworth (305/353/500) should make it as well

And that brings us to Tommy Herr, who is slashing 356/385/442 for Birmingham. Herr began the year as a reserve, and is unlikely to keep this level of performance up … but if he does, he should be in. Regardless, it’s one of the better stories in a miserable first half for the Black Barons.

The AI currently favors Utley and Birmingham’s Frank Isbell. Isbell is having a good season at 353/390/426, but he’s really been moved to DH (where his numbers don’t really warrant an all-star selection) by Herr’s emergence.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – First Basemen

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On July 23, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL First Basemen: Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

Detroit’s Hank Greenberg is an easy choice, slashing 327/385/635 with 11 homeruns and 43 RBIs. He would be behind Chicago’s Frank Thomas, who is at 358/435/623, but has only seen 77 innings in the field (Thomas should make the game nominally as a 1B, but may be the starting DH for the AL).

It gets tricky after that, especially if you consider Baltimore’s Frank Robinson (333/416/552) as an outfielder, which I think he really is. Likewise, Detroit’s Bob Bailey and Los Angeles’ Doug Rader will be covered with the third basemen.

It probably comes down to a choice between Kansas City’s Boog Powell (295/411/473), Houston’s Jeff Bagwell (301/389/497), and Ottawa’s Carlos Delgado (266/391/483). Delgado leads the trio with 9 homeruns, Powell leads with 26 RBIs, and Bagwell with overall numbers. Memphis’ Bill White has hit a bit of a slump, but he’s still at 268/348/472, which should put him on the outside of the conversation.

Of this group, Bagwell has been the best fielder as well, with a high zone rating and a single error on the year to date. Delgado has also been a net positive defender.

The AI goes with Greenberg, Powell, and Thomas, so there’s no real argument there.

#NL First Basemen: Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

1B is always a hard choice, given the offensive numbers you’re likely to encounter. Lou Gehrig (344/448/664, Black Yankees), Kent Hrbek (342/424/638, Sea Dogs), Ron Blomberg (340/418/625, Spiders), and Mike Epstein (363/451/600, Grays) all have OPS over the 1.000 mark, making them almost required participants. Hrbek has 12 homeruns, and Gehrig and Blomberg have 10 apiece. You could see Blomberg more rightly as an outfielder, where he has seen more time for Cleveland, leaving the other 3 as the selections.

That leaves Cleveland’s John Ellis (299/352/608) out in the cold, unless he makes it as a catcher and, perhaps more importantly, Philadelphia’s Rico Carty (349/411/544), unless he qualifies as an outfielder (which is actually likely).

The AI also has Gehrig, Hrbek, and Epstein.

TWIWBL Special Edition: All Star Preview – Catchers

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On July 19, 2021

In All Star Games, TWIWBL

{ The All-Star game is about a month away. We’ll post occasional articles about the contenders for participation in the mid-season classic. These are written “as of now,” so the final selections may vary dramatically, but hopefully these will add to the ongoing flavor of the league. }

#AL Catchers: Bill James & Cum Posey Divisions

The New York Gothams‘ Buster Posey is the clear class of this group, hitting 377/451/623, scoring 35 runs, and already accumulating a 2.6 WAR on the season. That’s easy. So is Baltimore‘s Curt Blefary, second in the league in HR with 13 while hitting 280/392/632 with 34 RBI.

Behind him, it gets a little tougher. The House of David‘s Elrod Hendricks deserves consideration at 263/323/483. Kansas City‘s Ted Simmons (296/330/444) and Houston‘s Jim O’Rourke (254/342/433) have been solid offensively, but neither have really played enough and O’Rourke spends a lot of his time at other positions.

Hendricks has a CERA of 4.06, which helps his case, but has only thrown out 6 of 42 base-stealers, which doesn’t. But nothing else really stands out defensively: Ottawa‘s Emil Gross has thrown out 37.5% of opposing runners, but hasn’t hit enough to merit consideration.

Both I and the AI make the fairly easy choices: Posey, Blefary, and Hendricks.

#NL Catchers: Effa Manley & Marvin Miller Divisions

The choices get harder in the NL.

Johnny Bench of Indianapolis has seen a recent hot streak take him to 289/394/578 with 9 homeruns. And that might not be enough to start, as Portland‘s Joe Mauer is hitting 356/456/625. But the two of them have to be selected.

That leaves one slot with several worthy candidates. Even if you eliminate Cleveland‘s John Ellis (299/352/608) and Philadelphia‘s Sherm Lollar (263/374/513) for not having played quite enough, you have to pick between Homestead‘s Josh Gibson (321/410/473) and the Black Yankees‘ Thurman Munson (303/345/508). WAR favors Gibson by quite a bit, 1.6 to 1.1.

Turning to the defensive statistics, Mauer has thrown out 35.5% of would-be base stealers, but he’s already in. Defensively, Munson has an edge, helped by Gibson’s 9 errors, but it’s not as big of an edge as you may think. Cleveland’s Louis Santop may be the best defensive catcher in the league, but his offense–which is quite respectable with a 314/354/488 slash line–is a notch behind these others, and splitting time with Ellis has kept him off the field a bit too much.

So, once again, we’re in agreement with the AI: Mauer, Bench, and Gibson.

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