Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Big Bill Lee

Year II Season Preview: Wandering House of David

Expectations

A repeat of last year’s playoff contention, at a minimum.

Best Case

Starters are found to support repeat performances from Jack Taylor and Bob Rush; Pete Browning is healthy for a full season; Elrod Hendricks doesn’t backslide too much; and the OF talent figures itself out.

Worst Case

The pitching remains an open question; none of the marginal performers–Richie Hebner, Ron Santo, Ernie Banks–take a step forward and the pleasant surprises from last season–Jim Edmonds, Anthony Rizzo, Dan Ford–all regress and Hendricks falls off a cliff entirely.

Key Questions

  • How does the team integrate its considerable young talent into the roster as the season progresses?

As many as 8 spots on the pitching staff are available, as are the backup C and IF jobs.

Trade Bait

There is a lot of duplicate talent here, most of it in the minors. Sorting through all that is the major task of the organization over the next year or two.

The two trades made seem fine, netting some draft picks, an arm for the future (Claude Osteen), and a hopefully revitalized Sammy Sosa.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CHendricksChance
1BRizzoHarris
2BSandbergGrantCabrera
3BHebner
Santo
SSBanks
LF/
RF
BrowningStoneSosa
CFEdmondsGore
SPTaylorRushSullivanMileyReuschel
EndBauta
Smith
RPSutterSabathia
Wood
JenkinsGumbert
New Addition | Injured

Above average, but needs some folks to step up dramatically on offense to reach the next level, and for the pitching to not regress at all. It’s possible–Sosa, Fergie Jenkins, Santo, and Banks all look like decent possibilities for upside.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerSS Ernie BanksU Cody Bellinger
Batting EyeOF George Gore1B Mark McGwire
ContactOF George Stone1B Mark Grace
Running SpeedOF Sammy SosaOF Skeeter Barnes
OF Tracy Jones
Base StealingU Frank ChanceOF Danny Green
IF DefenseU Bunny DownsIF Deacon White
OF DefenseOF Pete BrowningOF Cy Williams
StuffP Kerry WoodRP Ken McBride
ControlRP Ad GumbertSP Jim Clinton
VelocityP CC Sabathia
RP Lee Smith
P Kerry Wood
RP Pedro Strop

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (2)212BFrank Grant
2 (9)20IFCap Anson
3 (14)213BDave Malarcher
4 (47)23PKarl Spooner
5 (57)20UCody Bellinger
6 (75)21PKyle Peterson
7 (118)18PLarry Dierker
8 (152)21PBill Lee
9 (169)20PJocko Flynn
10 (190)21PFrank Dwyer
Others: None.

It’s a top heavy system, which is what you want. Could use some more pitching, but overall the system is a strength.

MostLeast
AgeP Early Wynn, 41P Joe Nuxhall, 16
HeightP CC Sabathia, 6’7″IF Bunny Downs, 5’5″
OPSU Joe Harris .988 (WBL/AAA)IF Ron Oester, .586 (AAA/AA)
HRC Elrod Hendricks, 41 (WBL)IF Frank Grant, 0 (WBL/AAA/AA)
SBOF Pete Browning, 38 (WBL)Many with 0
WAROF Pete Browning, 4.2 (WBL)IF Johnny Giavotella, -1.3 (—)
WRick Reuschel, 15 (WBL/AAA)
Bob Rush, 15 (WBL)
Jack Taylor, 15 (WBL)
Early Wynn, 15 (—)
Ross Detwiler, 4 (—)
Bob Anderson, 4 (—)
SVBruce Sutter, 25 (WBL)
ERABill Stoneman, 2.35 (—)Bob Shaw, 6.87 (AAA/AA)
WAREarly Wynn, 5.2 (—)Eddie Rommel, -0.3 (WBL/AAA)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

Season Review: Wandering House of David

83 - 71, .538 pct.
3rd in Bill James Division, 6 games behind.
Lost in Wild Card Round to Baltimore

Overall

The House of David caught fire in June and never looked back. That coincided, unsurprisingly, with Pete Browning‘s return from the DL (and a late season slump coincided with Browning’s cooling off at the tail end of the season). This team revolved around 3 players: Browning, Elrod Hendricks, and Jack Taylor.

On the one hand, it’s an example of how far a few well placed stars can carry you; on the other, it reveals an overall lack of quality that needs to be addressed.

What Went Right

Elrod Hendricks and Pete Browning finished with identical .961 OPS. Browning’s performance, at least, is expected to continue although his health remains a concern.

Jim Edmonds emerged as a legitimate potential star in the league with both his glove and his bat, and Anthony Rizzo did the same, minus the bit about the glove. George Stone was perhaps the most underrated offensive player in the league.

Top to bottom, the House of David were excellent offensively: Ryne Sandberg was very good at 2B and Dan Ford, quite surprisingly, hit well enough to legitimately claim the RF spot. Their worst everyday player–SS Ernie Banks–still posted a .736 OPS with 25 homeruns.

Jack Taylor was excellent, Bob Rush quite good, and both Frank Sullivan and CC Sabathia serviceable in the rotation. The bullpen trio of Tom Niedenfuer, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter was above average, although both Smith and Sutter faded a bit at the end of the season.

ALL STARS
C Elrod Hendricks; OF George Stone

What Went Wrong

Many of the players who were expected to fill roles struggled: Sammy Sosa (who was traded), Mark McGwire, Mark Grace, Frank Grant, and Fred Lynn were all given significant chances to impress, and all failed. That is what opened the door for Edmonds and Rizzo, so in the end it worked out.

Browning’s injury was horribly impactful and Hendricks’ performance is most likely a career year. Neither of these things went wrong, technically, but both speak volumes to the House of David’s future.

The rest of the pitching staff struggled, with Frank Sullivan being thoroughly average and Ferguson Jenkins horrible in his 80+ innings. The middle relief was so weak it warranted the acquisition of Ed Bauta–Bauta was good, but when Ed Bauta rescues your bullpen …

Transactions

March

None

June

OF Sammy Sosa & 5th Round Pick to Memphis for OF Tony Conigliaro, OF Fred Lynn & 2nd Round Pick {Bill Lee}

Sosa was terrible for the House of David, so getting anything for him seemed a steal at the time. Given his performance for Memphis, it’s not as clear.

July

IF Bert Campaneris, P Jeff Heathcock & 3rd Round Pick to Miami for P Ed Bauta, 6th Round Pick {Ad Gumbert} & 7th Round Pick {Dave Malarcher}

See above: Bauta was very much needed.

P Dick Tidrow & 7th Round Pick to New York Black Yankees for P Jim Clinton, 3B Chris Brown & 2nd Round Pick {Darren Daulton}

Seems fine: Clinton has some potential.

Looking Forward

SP

Taylor and Rush look quite good, and the House of David still believe in Ferguson Jenkins. There is some other talent here as well: Rick Reuschel, Kerry Wood and, although they are still teenagers at this point, Larry Dierker and Joe Nuxhall.

RP

Assuming Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith recover from their late season slumps, this looks good with support from Don Aase, and Rollie Fingers.

C

Something has to give here: Elrod Hendricks is clearly the starter heading into next year, with both Gabby Hartnett and Frank Chance behind him, although Chance’s future is likely not behind the plate.

1B

Anthony Rizzo looks very solid here, although the House of David remain optimistic that, someday, Mark McGwire will start connecting with more pitches. This may get even more crowded as both Chance and Cap Anson are expected to drift across the diamond to first eventually.

2B

Ryne Sandberg has this locked down, but young Billy Herman is turning some heads.

3B

Ron Santo is the starter here, although Anson should see some time over the next few years as well.

SS

Ernie Banks, although his performance this year really needs to be his floor for him to maintain his roster spot.

LF

George Stone now, Billy Williams later.

CF

Browning for as long as he stays healthy. There is a need for a better long term solution here.

RF

If Dan Ford cannot hold this down, Tony Conigliaro looks decent at AAA, and George Gore was among the better 4th OFers in the league.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

With 3 picks in the first two rounds, the House of David is looking to add a fair bit of high end talent. It starts in the 1st round with P Zack Greinke and continues in the 2nd with franchise P Bill Lee. Greinke is a great talent; Lee has a lower ceiling, but could help sooner.

The House of David had back-to-back picks later in the second round. With one, they hope to have solved a long term need at catcher: there are whispers that Hendricks’ year was a fluke and that Frank Chance‘s future may be at 1B . So, while he’s clearly a few years away, they picked up teenager Darren Daulton as a long-term project, and with their final pick of the round, they picked up the highest rated franchise player remaining, Cody Bellinger, who looks eventually to further complicate the CF question, but that’s a challenge for another day.

In the 4th round, the House of David picked up Frank Dwyer, probably the best remaining arm in the draft.

Rounds 5-8

Corner OF, 1B, and pitching should be the focus with these picks for the House of David, starting with a franchise selection, 19 year old pitcher Ad Gumbert. That was followed by their final exemption, P Al Brazle. Their 2 picks in the 7th round were Dave Malarcher and John Peters, both of whom offer some infield depth, but neither of whom have much power potential.

Rounds 9-12

P Justin Steele; OF Mitch Webster; IF Charlie Deal; P Hal Mauck.

13th overall pick Zack Greinke refused the House of David’s offer, and will re-enter the draft next year.

TWIWBL 53.3: The Rookie Draft

These are covered in the Season Reviews as well, but figured a list of the first three rounds of the draft would be of interest.

Round One

  1. P Bullet Joe Rogan (Philadelphia)
  2. OF Vladimir Guerrero (Miami)
  3. P Hilton Smith (Kansas City)
  4. P Clayton Kershaw (Homestead)
  5. P Max Scherzer (Ottawa)
  6. OF Carl Yastrzemski (Memphis)
  7. OF Turkey Stearnes (San Francisco)
  8. OF Ichiro Suzuki (Los Angeles)
  9. P Tom Glavine (Indianapolis)
  10. IF Ed Delahanty (Brooklyn)
  11. IF Edgar Martinez (Houston)
  12. P David Cone (New York Black Yankees)
  13. P Zack Greinke (House of David)
  14. C Joe Torre (Birmingham)
  15. P Dave Stieb (Philadelphia)
  16. OF Ralph Kiner (Homestead)
  17. OF Al Simmons (Brooklyn)
  18. P Jacob deGrom (Chicago)
  19. C Bill Freehan (Detroit)
  20. OF Chuck Klein (Portland)

Supplemental Round 1

  1. P Jon Matlack (Portland)

Round Two

  1. OF Hugh Duffy (Portland)
  2. OF Julio Rodríguez (Miami)
  3. OF Earl Averill (Kansas City)
  4. P Tim Lincecum (Homestead)
  5. P Al Orth (Ottawa)
  6. P Bill Lee (House of David)
  7. 3B Judy Johnson (Homestead)
  8. OF Babe Herman (Los Angeles)
  9. P Jim Maloney (Indianapolis)
  10. P Dazzy Vance (Brooklyn)
  11. OF César Cedeño (Houston)
  12. C Darren Daulton (House of David)
  13. 1B Cody Bellinger (House of David)
  14. P Matt Morris (Kansas City)
  15. P Walter Ball (Portland)
  16. P Howard Ehmke (Cleveland)
  17. P Josh Beckett (Miami)
  18. 2B Trea Turner (Birmingham)
  19. 3B Matt Chapman (Indianapolis)
  20. P Jack Quinn (Kansas City)

Round Three

  1. P Bruce Hurst (Philadelphia)
  2. OF Brett Gardner (New York Black Yankees)
  3. IF Carlos Baerga (Kansas City)
  4. IF Justin Turner (Cleveland)
  5. 1B Elbie Fletcher (Ottawa)
  6. SS Dobie Moore (Memphis)
  7. OF Gary Matthews (Birmingham)
  8. IF Marcus Semien (Los Angeles)
  9. P Bob Ewing (Indianapolis)
  10. OF George Selkirk (Brooklyn)
  11. C Will Smith (Houston)
  12. P Bill Gatewood (Philadelphia)
  13. OF Roy Thomas (Miami)
  14. OF José Cruz (Birmingham)
  15. P Harry Staley (Houston)
  16. IF Garry Templeton (Houston)
  17. P Dan Haren (Ottawa)
  18. OF Lenny Dykstra (Chicago)
  19. P Frank Lary (Detroit)
  20. OF Topsy Hartsel (Baltimore)

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