Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Elvis Andrus

Year II Season Preview: Portland Sea Dogs

Expectations

A deep playoff run once again, with championship contention.

Best Case

Everyone behind Walter Johnson in the rotation takes a step forward: Bert Blyleven becomes a legitimate #2, Dizzy Trout becomes more consistent, Elmer Brown makes the transition from the bullpen successfully, and first round pick Walter Ball steps right in, making the choice when Joséito Muñoz returns from injury a difficult one. Even without Gavvy Cravath (lost to free agency), the Sea Dogs should score quite a few runs, especially if Rogers Hornsby can prove a permanent solution (at least for a couple of years) at 2B.

Worst Case

None of that happens in the rotation, Hornsby and Gil Hodges show the effects of age, and the OF ends up regressing towards absolute mediocrity (which really comes down to how much you think Bobby Murcer, Harry Hooper, and supersub Gary Pettis overperformed last season).

Key Questions

  • How will the Sea Dogs compensate for the loss of Cravath?
  • Who joins the OF?

Trade Bait

Yes: the Sea Dogs still need to resolve the situation behind the plate, and trading either Joe Mauer or (more likely) Iván Rodríguez seems likely. Moving people on could also resolve the Buddy Bell/Adrián Beltré situation as well as provide Pettis an everyday opportunity elsewhere.

Well that was interesting. The Sea Dogs essentially turned Beltré, Rodríguez, and some useful prospects into Paul Molitor, Vladimir Guerrero, and Ken Griffey, Jr.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CMauerLee
1BHrbekHodges
2BHornsbyMolitor
3BBell
SSFregosi
LF/
RF
MurcerHooperBurroughs
CFPettisGriffey, Jr
SPJohnsonBlyleven
Muñoz
Trout
Pérez
KoosmanMillerBall
EndHoffmanBrownMelanconSantana
RPWilliams
New Addition | Injured

There’s clearly potential here–the players likely to regress (Murcer, Kent Hrbek, Hornsby) are balanced by newcomers Griffey, Jr and Molitor, both of whom are strong favorites to improve. But, like so many teams, they’ll go as far as the pitching will take them.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerIF Rogers HornsbyIF Miguel Sanó
Batting EyeIF Rogers HornsbyIF Eddie Yost
ContactOF Ken Griffey, JrOF Bubba Morton
Running SpeedOF Gary PettisOF Alex Diaz
OF Hugh Duffy
OF Otis Nixon
OF Howie Shanks
Base StealingOF Gary PettisOF Otis Nixon
IF Defense3B Buddy BellIF Lee Tannehill
OF DefenseOF Gary PettisOF Charlie Jamieson
StuffSP Walter JohnsonP Harry Harper
ControlSP Bert BlylevenP Bob Porterfield
VelocityRP Trevor HoffmanP Heath Hembree

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (16)20OFVladimir Guerrero
2 (20)20OFHugh Duffy
3 (23)22OFChuck Klein
4 (40)26IFHughie Jennings
5 (124)25PWalter Ball
6 (137)23PDylan Bundy
7 (138)18PHarry Harper
Others: None.

What a weird system. Their top end is probably the strongest quartet in the game, Ball is in the opening day rotation, and then the entire system falls off the cliff.

MostLeast
AgeIF Jeff Cirillo, 35
OF Bubba Morton, 35
P Bob Porterfield, 35
P Harry Harper, 18
HeightOF Walt Bond, 6’7″OF Nemo Leibold, 5’6″
IF Howdy Caton, 5’6″
OPSIF Freddie Freeman, 1.130 (—)IF Elvis Andrus, .558 (AAA/AA)
HRIF Freddie Freeman, 47 (—)IF Elvis Andrus, 1 (AAA/AA)
SBOF Harry Hooper, 38 (WBL)Many with 0
WARIF Freddie Freeman, 6.2 (—)IF Bobby Wine, -1.6 (—)
WWalter Johnson, 14 (WBL)Pascual Pérez, 3 (WBL/AAA)
Colby Lewis, 3 (AAA)
SVJohan Santana, 23 (WBL)
ERAJoseito Muñoz, 2.80 (WBL/AAA)Mike Trombley, 6.56 (—)
WARWalter Johnson, 4.7 (WBL)Mike Trombley, -0.5 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

TWIWBL 56.1: Spring Training Notes – Portland Sea Dogs

{ These are in no particular order–or, more exactly, they are in the order in which teams wrap up their Spring Training games. }

Spring Training Questions

The competition between Ruben Sierra and first round pick Chuck Klein for a corner OF spot should be fierce; similarly, while Buddy Bell excelled at 3B for Portland last year, he continues to be pushed by Adrián Beltré.

First Cuts

With the roster expected to be essentially set, much of this is pro forma for the Sea Dogs. But still there are some surprises–on the negative side, the relative struggles of many of the more established arms. Two pitchers who were seen as contenders for bullpen spots–Atlee Hammaker and Harry Harper–were returned to minor league camp, along with José Berríos.

That leaves 19 pitchers still in camp, something that will have to be sorted out over the next week or so.

Cliff Lee and Ernie Krueger have been fantastic so far in camp, which is just what a team with Iván Rodríguez and Joe Mauer behind the plate needs. Carlos Ruiz was returned to the minors.

At the corners, things have cleared up a little: Mickey Vernon, Don Baylor, Miguel Sanó, Jeff Cirillo, and Freddie Freeman were all sent down with very strong starts from Al Oliver, Eddie Yost and Buck Jordan keeping their hopes alive. And, at least so far, Beltré is dominating Bell in the contest to be the Sea Dogs’ starting 3B.

Wayne Garrett hits minor league camp while Greg Litton is only around due to the lack of other options at 2B behind Rogers Hornsby and Fred Dunlap (but that was how he stayed on the roster most of last season, so …). Strong starts from Hughie Jennings, Howdy Caton, and Elvis Andrus keeps the field crowded at SS.

The OF remains crowded as well, even with five departures (Charlie Jamieson, Gene Stephens, Wes Parker, Hugh Duffy, and Kiki Cuyler). Oliver has played here, and Chuck Klein has been fantastic at the plate, as has last year’s fourth OF, Jeff Burroughs. With Bobby Murcer seeming a bit slow in CF, the competition for the corner spots is pretty fierce.

Second Cuts

The Sea Dogs staff remains a puzzle, with only Ray Fontenot heading out of camp right now. The other four pitchers who are struggling (Elmer Brown, Mark Melancon, Mike Cuellar, and Bob Porterfield) all performed well last season, but do need to turn it around over the next week or two.

The long national nightmare is over for now, as Greg Litton was jettisoned to the minors, along with Eddie Yost. Tom Satriano was recalled for some 2B depth.

And … that’s it. Chuck Klein, Jeff Burroughs, Al Oliver, and Gary Pettis are hammering the ball and even the worst hitting players (Riggs Stephenson, Ruben Sierra) are doing fine. So that needs to be sorted out.

Third Cuts

Mike Cuellar won 13 games for Portland last year, but has lost all command so far this season and fins himself headed to AAA, along with fellow pitcher Bill Dietrich.

Neither Cliff Lee nor Ernie Krueger has much of a shot at making the team, but with both Iván Rodríguez and Joe Mauer struggling mightily and those two sporting OPS’ over 1.100, they stick around for a while. That performance also may make the Sea Dogs open to astounding offers for either of their top tier backstops.

1B Buck Jordan, SS Elvis Andrus, and OF Riggs Stephenson all head to AAA.

Final Cuts

Tom Satriano heads to the minors as does Ruben Sierra.

It was assumed that Alan Ashby–brought over in the trade with Miami that sent Pudge Rodríguez to the Cuban Giants–would backup Joe Mauer for the Sea Dogs. But Ashby heads to AAA, leaving the reserve C spot still up for grabs between Cliff Lee and Ernie Krueger.

The trade also brought over Paul Molitor, whose presence makes Fred Dunlap a bit redundant, sending him to AAA.

Four cuts were needed to get to 30: P Kris Medlen (who performed quite well this Spring), SS Howdy Caton (who also performed well, but not as well as Hughie Jennings), RP Bob Porterfield (who has struggled mightily, but is a bit of a surprise after his excellent performance last season), and C Ernie Krueger (who has been perhaps the Sea Dogs’ best hitter all Spring, and has rocketed up their prospect charts). This means the much lauded Cliff Lee will slide into the reserve C spot.

Veteran 1B Rafael Palmeiro had an outside chance to make the roster, but a late slump, combined with his being blocked by Gil Hodges and Kent Hrbek, moves Palmeiro to AAA.

Marc Hall and Cliff Markle had marvelous Springs, but in the end the Sea Dogs’ pitching staff was basically set: there was one open spot, and draft pick Walter Ball cemented that.

Draft pick Chuck Klein finished the Spring with a 1.101 OPS … and it wasn’t enough, as incumbent reserve OF Jeff Burroughs ended at 1.142. Klein heads to AAA in search of regular at-bats, with clear expectations of being back in Portland very soon.

The final cut was Hughie Jennings, who had as good a Spring as can be imagined, hitting .459 with 5 steals. But incumbent SS Jim Fregosi is an all star and a Silver Stick winner, and Paul Molitor–part of the high-profile trade of Pudge Rodríguez–can backup Fregosi (as well as 2B and CF).

TWIWBL 24.17: Mid-Season Reviews – Portland Sea Dogs

Summary

It’s been an excellent year for the Sea Dogs, who look primed for a post-season run.

What’s Gone Right

Hrbek & Murcer. Kent Hrbek and Bobby Murcer have combined for 34 homeruns and 102 RBIs, anchoring a strong lineup.

Excess of Catchers. Joe Mauer and Iván Rodríguez are both putting up spectacular numbers from behind the plate. Mauer’s are slightly better (and he has played far more), but Rodríguez still has an OPS over .900. Mauer is 22, Rodríguez 20, and at some point you would think a blockbuster trade might happen around one of them.

That Staff. This maybe the strongest pitching staff, end-to-end, in the league, from starters Walter Johnson, Bert Blyleven, and the surprising Wade Miller to Elmer Brown and Johan Santana at the back of the bullpen to the amazing emergence of Joseíto Muñoz.

What’s Gone Wrong

2B, or not. Fred Dunlap is heading towards Greg Litton like numbers, and given those two are the options at 2 for the Sea Dogs, it’s not pretty. Litton’s versatility maintains his roster spot, but something must be done here.

The Allure of Power. Both Gil Hodges and Jeff Burroughs have power. Hodges is second on the team with 17 homeruns, Burroughs has 10. But neither can get their OPS over .700, which make them a bit one dimensional for a championship contender.

Putting the Train Back on Track. Nineteen-year old Walter Johnson started this year looking like the best arm in the WBL. Since then, he’s become merely good. If Portland can get the earlier version back, it would go a long way in the postseason.

Key Storylines

The pair of Murcer and Hrbek need to maintain their level of production and the Sea Dogs need another couple of players to step it up. Similarly, the rotation has the potential to be truly great–the closer they get to it, the further Portland will go.

Long term, there’s a need to figure out the C question–Rodríguez is just too good to be a backup for too much longer, especially given the dearth of catching talent elsewhere in the league.

Trading Outlook

BUYING!

A few upgrades, and this could be a championship team. The catching deal is always out there in the shadows, but aside from that, it looks more like minor league parts on the market, unless Mike Cuellar gets some interest.

AAA Shuttle

Adrián Beltré is demanding more playing time since his recall. Couple his performance with that of Muñoz, and it’s been quite a success.

Midseason Changes

Muñoz joins the rotation, forcing Smokey Joe Wood to the bullpen on his return from injury. Jim Kern and Pascual Pérez head to AAA.

Awards

All Stars: Buddy Bell (3B); Jim Fregosi (SS); Kent Hrbek (1B); Joe Mauer (C); Bobby Murcer (CF); Johan Santana (P).

Offensive MVP: Kent Hrbek (1B)
Pitching MVP: Walter Johnson (SP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: Seattle Rainiers

Next to the Show: RPs Jeremy Blevins & Brian Duensing, C Cliff Lee, 1B Rafael Palmeiro

Prospects: C Cliff Lee (22)

Projects: 1B Rafael Palmeiro (30), 1B Mickey Vernon (24), P Bob Porterfield (34).

Suspects: Ps Al Worthington (37), Charlie Hough (40), Colby Lewis (30), 2B Connie Ryan (27), OF George Browne (32), SS Elvis Andrus (23).

AA: Atlantic City Bacharach Giants

Prospects: P Rick Wise (18), C Frankie Hayes (19)

Projects: RPs Matt Guerrier and Nick Goody (both 26), OF Kenny Hogan (18), 1B Buck Jordan (26), P Lefty George (24).

Suspects: None?

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