Expectations
Playoff contention. Houston was close this year, but at the end of the day, the offense was just too weak across the board, especially in their ability to hit for power.
Best Case
The raw offensive talent takes a massive step forward: George Brett, Tony Gwynn, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Andrés Galarraga, and Pete Hill each have a shot at being superstars; at least a few of them need to do so. The pitching feels like a safer bet: there is enough talent here to weather some underperformance and some injuries and still be among the league’s best, especially if someone–newcomer Tug McGraw or incumbent Billy Wagner–steps up at closer.
Worst Case
The offence just trundles along being incredibly mediocre and the pitching regresses as well.
Key Questions
- Can the bullpen perform? Some indications (McGraw, Chad Qualls, and Andrew Chafin‘s performance last year in small samples) are positive; others not so much (the size of those samples, Kent Tekulve‘s challenges).
- Who emerges at C?
Trade Bait
There’s a lot of excess here, especially at 1B, but there’s also not a lot of clarity over what to do with it. This is one of the rare franchises with a lot of pitching depth, so that’s pretty valuable right there.
Roster Evaluation
| POS | Elite | Strong | Solid | Meh | Weak | Unknown |
| C | Posada | Castro | ||||
| 1B | Bagwell Galaragga | |||||
| 2B | Biggio Johnson | Adams | ||||
| 3B | ||||||
| SS | Correa | |||||
| LF/ RF | Stengel | Hill | Gwynn | |||
| CF | Wynn | Cedeño | ||||
| SP | Oswalt Strasburg | Ely Saberhagen Ramsey | Clemens | |||
| End | Wagner | McGraw | ||||
| RP | Lidge | Ellis Tekulve | Franco |
This is a really unusual model, where the pitching is outperforming the offense. But it’s also a team without a lot of options: other than behind the plate, everyone–even the horribly underperforming HR Johnson–is projected to improve somewhat dramatically over the next few seasons.
Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
| Raw Power | OF Pete Hill | OF Gorman Thomas |
| Batting Eye | C Jorge Posada | IF Lance Blankenship |
| Contact | OF Tony Gwynn | U Jim O’Rourke |
| Running Speed | IF HR Johnson | OF Wily Taveras |
| Base Stealing | OF César Cedeño | OF Walt Devoy OF Wily Taveras |
| IF Defense | U Russ Adams | SS Roy McMillan |
| OF Defense | OF Jim Wynn | CF Wily Taveras |
| Stuff | P Bones Ely P Toad Ramsey | P Bill Harper |
| Control | SP Bret Saberhagen | RP Roberto Osuna |
| Velocity | SP Stephen Strasburg | P Wade Davis P Chris Saenz |
Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | POS | Name |
| 1 (10) | 19 | P | Ice Box Chamberlain |
| 2 (27) | 21 | 3B | Edgar Martínez |
| 3 (48) | 20 | P | Vida Blue |
| 4 (55) | 23 | C | Will Smith |
| 5 (65) | 21 | P | Collin McHugh |
| 6 (72) | 20 | P | Larry Jansen |
| 7 (82) | 18 | CF | César Cedeño |
| 8 (89) | 20 | P | Harry Staley |
| 9 (91) | 21 | P | Scott Bankhead |
| 10 (161) | 25 | CF | Kirby Puckett |
And this doesn’t even include Pete Hill or Leon Day, both still teenagers as well. It’s a deep system, with some star potential scattered throughout.
| Most | Least | |
| Age | OF Gene Woodling, 40 | OF César Cedeño, 18 |
| Height | P Ryan Thompson, 6’6″ | P George Winter, 5’8″ OF Kirby Puckett, 5’8″ U Jim O’Rourke, 5’8″ |
| OPS | 1B Harry Stovey, 1.042 (WBL/AAA/AA) | SS Roy McMillan, .352 (—) |
| HR | 1B Harry Stovey, 31 (WBL/AAA/AA) OF Gorman Thomas, 31 (AAA) | IF Cristian Guzmán, 2 (AAA/AA) |
| SB | OF Jim Wynn, 45 (WBL) | Many with 0 |
| WAR | 1B Harry Stovey, 4.8 (WBL/AAA/AA) | SS Roy McMillan, -5.9 (—) |
| W | Guy Bush, 15 (—) | Ian Kennedy, 1 (—) |
| SV | John Franco, 34 (A) | |
| ERA | Guy Bush, 3.27 (—) | George Winter, 9.13 (—) |
| WAR | George Kahler, 4.5 (—) | George Winter, -1.0 (—) |