Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Jay Bell

Year III Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

State of the Franchise

team logo

The first Angels preview said the pitching should be solid, especially up front behind Doc Gooden and Gerrit Cole.

And, for a year, it was correct. But since then, their paths — and the fortunes of the franchise — have diverged. Gooden made the AL All-Star team at 23, threw 194 innings and struck out 172, and is on the fringes of the truly dominant starters in the league. That’s where Cole was in 2000, but last season, Cole went 7-15 with a 6.36 ERA and gave up 53 home runs in 166 innings. That’s … not good.

The offense seems decent enough — 2 genuine young stars (Mike Trout and Kal Daniels combined for 79 home runs, 81 doubles, and 100 stolen bases) and now, perhaps 3 with the arrival of Freddie Freeman (333/422/677 over 30 games). There are some questions here — catching has always been an issue, and the MI has never truly settled (even less so since the organization traded away Bobby Grich).

All of that sounds OK, but Los Angeles has declared they are actively displeased with OK, and spent the winter making some extreme changes. The net of it all is their 2 best starters — Tom Seaver and Brett Anderson — are gone, replaced by José Rijo and prayer, the lineup now sports Dobie Moore at SS and Billy Herman at 2B (Moore via trade, Herman via the Rule V draft), Richie Hebner floating around the corner IF with the departure of Doug Rader, and Dwight Evans as the 4th OF, and the Angels accumulated some MiL talent and — most importantly — a 1st round pick.

The window is 2004 and nobody is pretending otherwise. What 2002 is for is finding out which of these arms is real.

2001 Revisited

We asked for playoff contention and got 74-88, 3rd in the Cum Posey Division, 29 games out.

The forecast split cleanly down the middle. Everything it wanted from the bats happened: Trout became the superstar the best case demanded, taking the organizational MVP and finishing 3rd for the Mel Trench Award; Carlos Delgado held off age at 32 and led the club with 44 homers.

Everything it wanted from the arms went the other way. The best case named 6 pitchers who might make good on immense potential — Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Sid Fernandez — (since released) and only Gooden did. Cole, the 2000 ace, was the collapse. Seaver was thoroughly meh and Pud Galvin — while certainly useful in a rubber-armed way — was effectively ordinary across 20 starts.

So the worst case, which predicted a hot mess on the mound and a Doug Rader reversion, was the more accurate take. Rader went from borderline MVP candidate to a pedestrian third baseman and was traded in March.

The other thing 2001 taught was about the bottom of the lineup. Ichiro Suzuki won a Gold Glove, played 140 games, and walked 7 times all year on his way to a .688 OPS and −1.2 WAR. Steve Garvey walked 8 times in 405 plate appearances. 1,400 PA, 15 walks. That’s no way to run a railroad.

Key Changes

In: Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (MEM); Richie Hebner (HOD); Billy Herman (FA); Dobie Moore (MEM); Jeff Pfeffer (KAN); José Rijo (KAN)

Out: Brett Anderson (HOD); Jay Bell (FA); Xander Bogaerts (MEM); Doug Rader (KAN); Tom Seaver (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: Dwight Evans; Jeurys Familia; Freddie Freeman; Billy Herman; Darren Holmes; Ross Reynolds

Best Case for 2002

Gooden finishes the climb to undisputed ace, and 2 of the arms behind him declare themselves. Rijo struck out 154 in Kansas City, Julio Teheran struck out 90 in 82 innings, Vic Willis is 23 and full of promise, and Ross Reynolds allowed exactly 1 home run (in the homer-happy context of the 2001 WBL) all season out of the pen. And the list of names above still waits: Finley, Ryan and Elmer Smith all open the year at Las Vegas.

And then the offense settles into sustained delivery: Freeman hits the way he did in September, Richie Hebner brings the 284/373/594 he posted for the House of David to third base, Moore settles shortstop at 21, and Gene Tenace — who walked 32 times in 155 plate appearances at Birmingham before the trade — gives the lineup an on-base bat.

The wins may not follow, and that’s allowed. 2002 is about answers.

Worst Case for 2002

Nobody separates. The pool stays a pool, Cole’s home-run rate is just who he is now. The bullpen is the near-term version of the same problem. Francisco Rodríguez was among the worst closers in the league at 6.87, Pfeffer arrives off a 6.16, Bill Doak off a 6.37. None of that changes, and Suzuki’s bat doesn’t move, Herman doesn’t hold second base, and the lineup around Trout and Daniels looks no better than it did in 2001.

Key Questions

  • Does what happens in Vegas matter? Oddly, many of the keys to LA’s future open the season at AAA in Las Vegas, where Mike Witt, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, John Lackey, Mike Krukow and Carlos Mármol all start the season. The org needs 2 or 3 of that group to separate, and it has deliberately arranged the year to find out — promote for clarity, not for reward.
  • Is the trust in the Doc warranted? The sharpest question of the Angels’ winter is why they sold Brett Anderson (11-6 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 189 innings and won the organizational Pitcher of the Year) and kept Gooden (11-11 with a 4.36, a 1.29 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 194). Those are essentially the same season, and the fanbase will be keeping close tabs on how Anderson fares for the House of David.
  • Can anybody in the bottom half reach base? Every bat the org brought in — Hebner, Tenace, Moore, even Eddie Joost — gets on base.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CTenace · Hassey
1BFreeman
2BHerman
SSMoore C · Joost
3BHebner A · Garvey
LFDaniels S
CFTrout S · Evans
RFSuzuki F
DHDelgado B
SPGooden C · Rijo C · Cole F · Galvin · Willis
RPRodríguez F · Reynolds B · Pfeffer F · Familia · Holmes · Doak

The bullpen is unsettled, most likely a committee approach until someone takes hold of the closer role.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Dwight Evans1B Jack Hannifin
Batting EyeSS Eddie JoostCF Jack Gleason
ContactRF Ichiro SuzukiLF Elmer Smith
Running SpeedRF Ichiro SuzukiCF Denard Span
Base StealingSP Pud GalvinCF Devon White; C Dave Pierson
IF Defense2B Billy Herman1B High Pockets Kelly
OF DefenseCF Dwight EvansCF Jim Landis
StuffRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan
ControlSP Roy Patterson; SP Pud GalvinSP Brian J Anderson
VelocityRP Francisco RodríguezRP Nolan Ryan

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (46)192BRod Carew
2 (73)221BBabe Herman
3 (74)23LFSteve Henderson
4 (99)25CLCarlos Mármol

Others: P John Lackey, P Luke Walker, P Mike Witt, 3B Pedro Álvarez.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dwight Evans (26).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep and 8 of the 10 were pitchers, led by Elmer Smith at 19th in all of baseball. Smith is 26 and at Triple-A now, trying to figure out how to harness his genuine 2-way potential. Seaver graduated and was flipped to Memphis; Reynolds graduated into the bullpen and made the AL Rookie Team; Randy Tate, Marcus Semien, Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Nimmo all fell off the board.

What tops it now is a bat — 19-year-old Rod Carew, last year’s 1st-round pick, a second baseman who is unlikely to stay one. Babe Herman (no relation to Billy) and Steve Henderson supply corner power behind him, and Mármol is the lone arm.

The list understates the system, though, because the interesting part isn’t ranked. Las Vegas is carrying most of the pitching depth in the organization plus Pedro Álvarez, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, and Jack Hannifin, who hit 63 home runs there and turns 28 this year.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEddie Joost, 34Chris Archer, 19
HeightMike Witt, 6’7″Albie Pearson, 5’5″
OPSJack Hannifin, 1.078 (AAA)Denard Span, .514 (A)
HRJack Hannifin, 63 (AAA)Elmer Smith, 0
SBKal Daniels, 55
WAR (bat)Mike Trout, 5.7Ichiro Suzuki, −1.2
WDwight Gooden, 11
SVAl Jackson, 29 (A)
ERATom Morgan, 3.07 (A)Mike Krukow, 7.25 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Tom Morgan, 4.0 (A)Julio Teheran, −0.4

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 96.1 – January’s Activity

31 December through mid January

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

#Chicago American Giants

Looking to bolster their competition at SS, Chicago signed Jay Bell to a one year deal.

More importantly, in late February, the American Giants got some good news on Frank Thomas, with the medical staff now saying he could be looking at a May return.

#Kansas City Monarchs

Signed Jeff Reardon to help in their bullpen.

Draft pick Chris Carpenter refused to sign with the Monarchs, so back into the draft pool he goes, and Kansas City will get a compensation pick.

#New York Black Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton refused to sign, so the Yankees will get a compensation pick. More importantly, this potentially scuttles a deal with the Gothams to obtain Gaylord Perry. We’ll see what the two sides can work out.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Added FA IF Lonny Frey to the MI mix–at $550k for 1 year, this is a low-risk move to try to find some stability at 2B.

Trades

These are all fallout from the Rookie Draft that were contingent on draft picks signing. The blockbuster here is how NYY’s win-now posture led to what could be a major reshaping of their roster.

The Big One

NYG sends P Gaylord Perry, IF Robbie Thompson to NYY for P Dave Righetti, IF Grant Johnson, 1st Round Pick, and 3rd Round Pick.

It’s a lot to give up. But the Black Yankees get a solid #3 starter, clear room for Hardy Richardson to play, and, as they are wont to do, further mortgage their future.

A Three Way

This was really just to resolve some errors in the draft itself. All low level noise.

KAN sends P Tex Pruitt, P Fred Holdsworth to DET for P Jakie May.
DET sends P Tex Pruitt, P Fred Holdsworth to MEM for C Billy Sullivan, P John Healy.

Gant Comes Home

BBB sends OF Yoenis Céspedes, P Ed Hanyzewski to HOD for SS Ron Gant.

Interesting deal. Gant, of course, doesn’t stay at SS, and Céspedes may impact HOD immediately.

More Noise

MCG sends P Jing Johnson to SFS for 2B Joe Dunand, P Kevin Kobel.

Housekeeping.

TWIWBL 90.1: Off Season Review – Los Angeles Angels

74 - 88, .457 pct.
3rd in Cum Posey Division, 29 GB

Overall

This is a franchise in a bit of crisis, struggling to figure out how to build a team around not one, but two, legitimate MVP candidates in Mike Trout and Kal Daniels. Right now, though, that’s all the Angels have–there is some potential on the mound, but Gerrit Cole‘s disastrous fall from last season’s heights is a reminder of how precarious that can be.

It’s just not clear how the Angels get out of the rut of mediocrity at this point, although if you squint you could convince yourself the pitching will come around and there are enough bit pieces around the two superstars–certainly the mid-season acquisition of Freddie Freeman helps in that regard.

What Went Right

Kal Daniels & Mike Trout were each incredible, combining for 79 homeruns, 81 doubles, 100 SB, 213 RBIs, and 217 runs scored. Just incredible output and with Daniels being 24 and Trout 22, the futures look bright.

Freddie Freeman finally found a home, and immediately began hitting at the same level as Daniels and Trout over about 30 games.

Carlos Delgado keeps rolling along, with the 32 year old veteran leading the team with 44 homeruns and decent secondary numbers.

Between Gene Tenace and Ron Hassey, the long nightmare at catcher may be finally solved for the Angels (but they’ve thought this before as well).

Similarly, Eddie Joost‘s power may have laid a claim to the role at SS and Bill Doran‘s bat may have earned him the 2B spot, although both need to perform well this Spring to cement those positions.

On the mound, Brett Anderson was a revelation, finishing 11-6 with a 4.34 ERA and an excellent 1.12 WHIP. Anderson made 31 starts and seems a lock to lead the rotation.

Doc Gooden was better than an 11-11 pitcher. His floor is a 180+ innings eater, and his ceiling is much, much higher.

Roy Patterson and Ross Reynolds were totally unheralded coming into the season and each were excellent, with Patterson likely moving into the rotation next season. Similarly, Julio Teheran, used in relief all year, may be asked to join the starters.

Elmer Smith hit poorly and pitched better than his 4-5, 6.45 numbers would indicate. He has a semi-realistic shot at contributing both on the mound and in LF. But now we’re moving into what didn’t go badly as opposed to what went well.

ALL STARS

Bobby Grich (subsequently traded)
Doc Gooden
MAJOR AWARDS

Ichiro Suzuki: AL RF Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Brett Anderson, All AL 3rd Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Kal Daniels, All AL 2nd Team; AL All-Rounder 2nd Place
AJ Pierzynski, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Ross Reynolds, All AL 2nd Team; AL Rookie Team of the Year
Tom Seaver, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Elmer Smith, AL Rookie Team of the Year
Ichiro Suzuki, AL Rookie 2nd Team of the Year
Julio Teheran, AL 23 & Under Team
Mike Trout, Mel Trench Award 3rd Place; All AL 3rd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Mike Trout, MVP
Brett Anderson, Pitcher of the Year
Carlos Delgado, Heart & Soul
Kal Daniels, Fan Favorite

Luke Walker, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Pedro Álvarez, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Most notably, Gerrit Cole imploded, going 7-15 with an ERA well over 6. Cole was the staff ace last season.

The wealth of SP talent continues to not deliver, from Tom Seaver and Pud Galvin–thoroughly mediocre as a full time starter–to the parade of arms given a shot from Nolan Ryan to Harry Howell, Noah Lowry to Bill Doak to John Lackey to … you get the idea.

Francisco Rodríguez, given the job after Joe Nathan was traded, was among the worst closers in the league.

C was a misery for most of the year, with John Stearns, Jeff Torborg, and AJ Pierzynski all stinking up the joint (Pierzynski’s rookie recognition was more due to how few rookie backstops there were than anything else).

Nobody played SS well, with George Wright, Jay Bell, and Freddie Patek all given a shot.

Ichiro Suzuki played in 140 games as a rookie, with stellar defense, but only managed a .688 OPS with little power and virtually zero plate discipline (7 walks total).

Doug Rader, a borderline MVP candidate last year, became a shockingly pedestrian 3B.

Steve Garvey continues to be a mediocre bat without a clear position in the field.

Transactions

March

None.

July

OF Don Buford to NYG for IF Freddie Patek, 2nd Round Pick, & 5th Round Pick.

Sure, as long as the picks are solid. Buford wasn’t going to be here when the Angels turn things around, so it’s a solid haul.

August

IF Bobby Grich & 3rd Round Pick to BBB for C Gene Tenace, P Vic Willis, & 1st Round Pick.

Grich is an all star, but the return is high, with both Tenace and Willis looking to be contributors. We’ll see about the 1st rounder, but it seems like a solid trade.

P Joe Nathan, IF Wally Joyner, 1st Round Pick to SFS for IF Eddie Miller, IF Freddie Freeman.

Given Freeman’s debut, this seems like a win, even if the 1st round pick turns into something (and especially given that Los Angeles still has one from the Grich trade).

Positional Overview

C

Maybe, just maybe, this is settled with Hassey and Tenace. Maybe.

The Angels are still high on John Stearns but there’s not a lot of evidence as to why.

1B

This looks, finally, to be solved with Freeman’s arrival, who will be spelled by Delgado (who is more suited to DH as he ages).

Steve Garvey seems better suited for this side of the infield, but he is now blocked by Freeman. Babe Herman may get a look here in the Spring as well.

2B

Wide open.

Bill Doran and Mark Ellis are the favorites here, but Jay Bell and Freddie Patek–while more natural at SS–can both play here, and veteran Bucky Harris may have performed well enough to get a look.

This is likely to be resolved in ST or via a trade.

SS

Eddie Joost and Jay Bell will likely fight this one out, with the defensive wizardry of George Wright and Andrelton Simmons looming in the background.

Xander Bogaerts is a dark horse here as well, and at 24 is getting to the point of needing to hit a WBL roster soon.

3B

Doug Rader should get a chance to bounce back, and Garvey is occasionally useful here, but this still looks like an area where improvement is needed.

That could come from David Wright or Pedro Álvarez, who should start the year at AAA.

LF/RF

Pretty much set with Daniels and Suzuki, whose struggles will be written off to an adjustment year. Elmer Smith will see some time here as well.

Curt Motton may be available for depth, and Brandon Nimmo is probably the best lower level corner OF prospect at this point.

CF

Trout should patrol here for quite a while, with the Angels faced with the question of what kind of backup they prefer: Brian Giles is solid offensively, while Devon White can chase them down with the best of them.

Jack Gleason (miserable in a WBL trial this year) and Albie Pearson offer some depth as well.

DH

Delgado should transition to a full time (or nearly so) DH next season.

SP

Brett Anderson and Gooden are a lock, and Cole will be given another year to see whether last year’s great season or this year’s bad one is more indicative of his future.

Beyond that, it’s open season, with Harry Howell, Vic Willis, Elmer Smith, Mike Krukow, Bill Doak, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, and Luke Walker all in the mix.

RP

You Could add Roy Patterson, Pud Galvin, and Julio Teheran to the list of starting candidates, but those three are likely to make the bullpen regardless, along with Ross Reynolds.

The team seems committed to giving Francisco Rodríguez another shot at closing games.

Two more interesting names: Chuck Finley and Jonny Venters are both likely fully recovered come Spring Training, and either or both could make the team.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 0
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 2

They just need talent. Yeah, LF/CF/1B are sewn up for a while, but they just need talent.

TWIWBL 74.4: Cum Posey Division

TeamW/LPctGB
San Francisco Sea Lions63-36.636
Miami Cuban Giants48-51.48515
Portland Sea Dogs46-54.46017.5
Los Angeles Angels45-53.45915.5
Chicago American Giants45-54.45518
Cum Posey Division | 23 July

#Chicago American Giants

In what may be a preliminary move to more significant changes, the American Giants moved Joe Lake into the starting rotation, sending last season’s ace Tricky Nichols to the bullpen. The also moved AJ Minter out of the closers role, replacing him with Akinori Otsuka. For now, however, both Nichols and Minter stay with the WBL club.

Frank Thomas had himself a day, hitting 2 homeruns and going 5-for-5, but it wasn’t enough as the American Giants fell to Detroit, 8-6.

#Los Angeles Angels

With Mark Ellis out for about a month, the Angels recalled Jay Bell from AAA. Bell will see some time at SS, with Bobby Grich returning fulltime to his 2B spot.

Elmer Smith replaced Pud Galvin at the end of the Angels’ rotation for the time being. Smith has been struggling at the plate, so his time in the OF will probably be reduced, but Los Angeles does still plan to use have him hit on the days he pitches.

Mike Trout went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as the Angels fell to Cleveland, 7-5.

Kal Daniels and Ron Hassey each hit 2 out and the Angels’ bullpen held on as Los Angeles topped Cleveland, 11-8. Then they battered the Spiders, 14-3, as Ichiro Suzuki had 5 hits, Hassey 4, and Daniels drove in 6.

#Miami Cuban Giants

José Canseco went deep twice, but Miami fell to Baltimore, 5-3.

#Portland Sea Dogs

Tom Zachary will miss over a week and, with Scott Terry‘s fate still unknown, is hurt enough to warrant a trip to the DL. Art Fowler was recalled to take Zachary’s spot in the bullpen.

The news on Terry wasn’t good: he’ll be out for 9 months (Tommy John surgery) and the Sea Dogs recalled Heath Hembree from AAA.

#San Francisco Sea Lions

Turkey Stearnes went deep twice and Eddie Plank fanned 10 in 7+ innings, improving to 15-4 on the year in a 6-4 victory over the New York Black Yankees. And then it was Bobby Bonds‘ turn, as he hit his 27th and 28th homer of the year in another win over New York, this one by a margin of 7-4 as Bump Hadley won his 15th of the year.

Getting to 30: Effa Manley Division

#Cleveland Spiders

The pitching staff seems set with Hank Gastright and Firpo Marberry heading back to the minors. The only real question is the long reliever roles, where 1 or 2 of Hardie Henderson, Sudden Sam McDowell, and Stan Coveleski will make the roster. They’ve all struggled a bit, especially with their control.

Surprisingly, Jim Thome ends up losing the battle at 1B. But 5 players remain on the roster who can play 1B, and all of them were significantly better than Thome during the Spring.

SS is just a desolation for the Spiders: neither Bill Dahlen, Joe Sewell, or Tom Veryzer have hit over .133 or posted an OPS over .360 over the Spring games. Bill Knickerbocker has shown some spark, but it’s only been 10 ABs. Sewell and Veryzer are sent down for now, but a better performance has to come out eventually.

#Homestead Grays

Ray Brown and John Candelaria stay in camp as long relievers, which means Bartolo Colon and Babe Adams are off to the minors.

Josh Lindblom is holding on to the closer role, but Kent Tekulve and Michael Jackson are clearly poised to help out if he falters.

Khalil Greene impressed enough in his stint to beat out Jay Bell for the backup SS role behind Arky Vaughan. The final cut was rough, first of all because Paul Waner‘s short-term injury complicates the situation. Beyond that, Honus Wagner has struggled, but has shown some power, making Phil Garner the final cut for now.

#Indianapolis ABC’s

The ABC’s are one of the few teams to have an embarrassment of riches of starting pitching. It’s great for them, but makes the roster cuts rough. Rob Dibble and Lefty James in the bullpen are locks, as are Red Faber, Dolf Luque, and Johnny Cueto in the rotation. Paul Derringer joins as the 4th starter.

The 5th slot is between Virgil Trucks, David Price, and Bronson Arroyo. But Willie Mitchell and Dixie Leverett would have earned starting positions on other teams: look for their return or for them to be trade bait.

The rest of the cuts were pretty pedestrian, if a little surprising: Barry Larkin was eliminated from the crush of options at SS, Charlie Hemphill just couldn’t do enough in the OF.

#New York Black Yankees

Like Indianapolis, too much starting pitching is a blessing in disguise. Ron Guidry is a lock, along with Red Ruffing and Dave Righetti. Beyond that, 5 pitchers are competing for 4 spots: 2 in the rotation, 2 in the pen. AJ Burnett, Lady Baldwin, Waite Hoyt, and Whitey Ford all deserve another start, while Jack Scott should get some more bullpen innings before the final decision.

It’s complicated by Sparky Lyle and Goose Gossage both being sidelined with injury.

Luckily 4 of the 6 remaining cuts are clear, as Joe Harris, Chris Brown, Hardy Richardson, and Aaron Hill head to AAA. Sam Thompson will join them, but the final cut is difficult, especially as both Red Rolfe and Moose Skowron have torn the cover off the ball in limited action. Skowron has the biggest challenge to make the team, as 1B is well blocked, so he also returns to the minors.

#Philadelphia Stars

There are 2 pending questions on the pitching staff: first, while Monte Ward, Jack Katoll, and Pete Alexander are all on the roster, it’s not clear who starts the season as the 5th starter. Second, Brad Kilby, Rheal Cormier, and Pedro Feliciano are 3 hurlers trying to fill 2 spots.

Mickey Doolin can’t return from injury soon enough; in the meantime, Larry Bowa will start at SS, backed up by Roger Peckingpaugh, with Pat Meares heading to the minors.

Sending both Bobby Abreu and Dusty Baker to AAA clears up a crowded OF, and Cecil Cooper will join them after failing to displace Ted Kluszewski at 1B.

Spring Training Preview: Homestead

  • The rotation is pretty much set: it would take a stellar spring for the most likely candidates of Carlos Zambrano, John Candelaria, or Bartolo Colon to break through.
    • Best laid plans and all that. Billy Pierce and Babe Adams have both been hit hard, with Pierce especially ineffective. So more SPs are being looked at. Zambrano, Carlson, and Francisco Liriano look to be firmly in the mix.
      • Pierce is off to AAA. Carlson has moved into the starting rotation, joining Zambrano, Corey Kluber, Vean Gregg, and Liriano. Barring a collapse, that’s the starting rotation right there. The question for them then becomes whether Brown, Adams, Colon, and Candelaria are better served in long relief in MLB or starting at AAA.
  • That said, that trio along with Hal Carlson and Ray Brown have a decent shot at a bullpen role, especially if Frank Linzy or Kent Tekulve struggle.
    • Linzy has, but Tekulve–along with closer Josh Lindblom and Michael Jackson–have been excellent.
      • Bill Fischer and Will Thompson are struggling at the back end of the bullpen.
  • The backup 2B job is up for grabs between Jeff Kent and Phil Garner, as is the starter at 3B, between Chris Sabo and Pedro Feliz.
    • At 2B, Kent is pushing Davey Johnson for the starting role, while Garner has yet to show anything of note, although his defensive flexibility is useful.
      • Kent has the clear edge at 2B, while Sabo has moved ahead of Feliz.
  • The biggest mess is in the OF, where Roberto Clemente and Paul Waner are both guaranteed slots and both strongest at RF. How that plays out, with Rick Reichardt, Tom Brown, Pops Stargell, Andrew McCutcheon, and Max Carey all vying for 3 roster spots, will go a long way to determining the opening day lineups.
    • While Waner has done well, Clemente has hit poorly enough to throw his starting position in doubt. Brown, Stargell, and McCutcheon are all excelling.
  • Josh Gibson is out for a few weeks, prompting Homestead to add Hobie Landrith and Blake Swihart to the roster to support Peaches Graham at C.
    • Swihart and Graham would make the roster at this point.
  • Jay Bell hasn’t shown enough to lock down the backup SS role, so Khalil Greene has been recalled from AAA as a possibility.
    • Perhaps most surprisingly, right now Honus Wagner and Andy Van Slyke are likely to start at AAA.

Near DefiniteLikelyPossibleLong Shot
Starting PitchersCorey Kluber
Carlos Zambrano
Vean Gregg
Francisco Liriano
Hal Carlson
John Candelaria
Ray Brown
Bartolo Colon
Babe Adams
Middle RelieversDaniel HudsonBill Fischer
Will Thompson
Frank Linzy
SetupMichael Jackson
Kent Tekulve
CloserJosh Lindblom
CJosh GibsonPeaches GrahamBlake SwihartHobie Landrith
1BMike EpsteinHonus Wagner
2BDavey JohnsonJeff KentPhil Garner
3BChris SaboPedro FelizAndy Van Slyke
SSArky VaughanJay Bell
Khalil Greene
OFGoose GoslinPops Stargell
Andrew McCutcheon
Tom Brown
Rick Reichardt
Paul Waner
Roberto Clemente
Max Carey
Jack Cust

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