Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Joe Kelley

Year II Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

Expectations

There is growing optimism in Memphis, even though it is, based on last year’s overall performance, totally unwarranted. But a strong end to the season, landing the best FA arm on the market in Shane Bieber, and a potentially high-impact draft class leaves the Red Sox with dreams of the postseason in their heads.

Best Case

Bieber joins Stubby Overmire, Dean Chance, and Bill Doak to form a solid rotation with the bullpen solidifying behind Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon while the trio of Mookie Betts, Manny Ramírez, and Sammy Sosa all reach their potential. Dobie Moore unseating Vern Stephens at SS would help, too.

Worst Case

Overmire’s finishing the year as runner-up in the ERA race proves a mirage, and the pitching remains too large of an obstacle for the offense to overcome, especially when Betts and Ramírez remain tantalizingly mediocre.

Key Questions

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen?
  • Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens?
  • Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up.

Trade Bait

There is, potentially, OF and SS talent to spare, making the Red Sox one of the few teams potentially active on the Spring Training trading block.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CBryanHartnett
1BWhiteOrtiz
2BRitchey
3BBoggsShaw
SSStephensMoore
LF/
RF
WilliamsRamírez
Betts
Johnson
CFSmith
SPChance
Overmire
Barker
Doak
LesterBieber
EndBellPapelbon
RPBush
Miller
Roach

Watt
New Addition | Injured

There is so much upside here. But the mix of poor historical performance and a whopping nine unknown players make it pretty much a crapshoot.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerOF Manny RamírezOF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeOF Ted WilliamsC Charlie Bennett
Contact3B Wade BoggsOF Lefty O’Doul
Running SpeedCF Reggie Smith2B Jim Canavan
Base Stealing3B Travis ShawOF Sam Mertes
IF Defense3B Travis ShawIF Gary Gaetti
OF DefenseOF Mookie BettsOF Dwight Evans
StuffRP Skel RoachP Bill Hogg
ControlP Stubby OvermireP Dale Mohorcic
VelocityRP Heath BellP Joba Chamberlain

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (18)20IFDobie Moore
2 (33)23PShane Bieber
3 (49)23PSadie McMahon
4 (77)22IFCandy Jim Taylor
5 (94)21PJim Kaat
6 (107)22PAndrew Miller
7 (129)20UCarl Yastrzemski
8 (132)201BBill Buckner
9 (136)211BJoe Cunningham
10 (143)22PBill Hogg
Others: OFs Alex Johnson, Dwight Evans; P Dick Drago.

A lot of talent, but it’s unclear how much of it can make a WBL impact. We’ll find out a lot this year, as Moore, Bieber, and Miller are all breaking camp with the Red Sox.

Also, WTF? The Red Sox let Chino Smith go for some reason, seeing him immediately snapped up by Baltimore.

MostLeast
Age1B Joe Cronin, 37
P Russ Springer, 37
P Mickey McDermott, 16
HeightP Mike Witt, 6’7″IF Candy Jim Taylor, 5’5″
OPSIF Wayne Belardi, 1.207 (—)IF Bud Harrelson, .505 (—)
HRIF Wayne Belardi, 75 (—)IF Candy Jim Taylor, 1 (AAA/AA)
OF Jack McAleese, 1 (—)
IF Bud Harrelson, 1 (—)
SBCF Reggie Smith, 20 (WBL)Many with 0
WAROF Joe Kelley, 4.8 (AAA/AA)IF Bud Harrelson, -2.6 (—)
WJoe Kelly, 13 (WBL/AAA)
Jim McAndrew, 13 (—)
Mike Witt, 13 (—)
Turk Farrell, 4 (WBL/AAA)
Len Barker, 4 (WBL/AAA)
SVJonathan Papelbon, 18 (WBL)
ERAJameson Taillon, 2.81 (—)Sadie McMahon, 7.12 (WBL/AAA/AA)
WARJameson Taillon, 5.5 (—)Carl Mays, -1.4 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

TWIWBL 56.7: Spring Training Notes – Memphis Red Sox

Spring Training Questions

Half the staff is unknown, and while the OF is far too crowded, both C and the IF are still to be settled.

First round pick Carl Yastrzemski and fourth round pick Bill Lee have an outside shot at making the squad, although Yastrzemski is thoroughly blocked at both LF and 1B.

First Cuts

Not a lot clarified on the mound. Mike Witt and Turk Farrell were sent down, with Eddie Cicotte‘s struggles moving him close to the edge as well. The rest remains complicated: Len Barker and Sadie McMahon have pitched better than their numbers would indicate, while prize FA acquistion Shane Bieber, Jon Lester, and David Bush are struggling a bit.

C Charlie Bennett was sent down, and only Kurt Suzuki‘s arm prevented him from joining Bennett in the minors. Joe Cunningham and David Ortiz have torn the cover off the ball, maintaining quite a crowd at 1B where only George Scott heads off to minor league camp.

The Red Sox had hoped that DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia would provide some competition at 2B, instead each were sent down after woeful early performances, along with SS Francisco Lindor.

And that brings us to Carl Yastrzemski, who has simply exploded onto the scene. It’s not clear where the 20 year old could fit in Memphis’ lineup, but if he keeps hitting like this, they’ll find a spot for him. Eddie Rosario, Tom Brown, and Lefty O’Doul were optioned to the minors.

These moves leave Memphis still needing to do a lot of work, primarily on the mound and in the outfield, positions that are crowded enough the Red Sox could be challenged in finding enough opportunities for the talent to be accurately evaluated.

Second Cuts

Some of Memphis’ best performers on the mound from last season (Heath Bell, Len Barker, and Bill Doak and, in a slightly lesser key, Tim Wakefield) have struggled mightily this Spring, but will be given some more time to work out the kinks. Tommy de la Cruz, Eddie Cicotte, Bill Hogg, and Sadie McMahon weren’t so lucky, with all four being sent to the minors.

Kurt Suzuki‘s defense again keeps him in camp, at least temporarily.

The IF remains a mess: Iván De Jesús, Wade Boggs and Bill White are all struggling and players considered long shots coming into camp–David Ortiz and Dobie Moore especially–have been jaw-droppingly good.

The situation is the same in the OF, where Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson are tearing the cover off the ball and Mookie Betts, Ted Williams, and David Justice are all mired in the muck of sub .500 OPS’. Look for both of these logjams to break over the next week.

Third Cuts

P remains a conundrum compounded by Bill Doak and Jon Lester (both stalwarts last season) struggling. For all his versatility, Tim Wakefield just can’t seem to get a feel for his knuckleball, and heads to AAA along with Derek Lowe.

Kurt Suzuki is fantastic defensively behind the plate, but his offense is just too weak for the WBL at this point. He joins Iván De Jesús, Mike Greenwell, Andrew Benintendi, Dwight Evans, and Candy Jim Taylor at AAA.

That sounds like a lot, but there are still a lot of roster questions to figure out. The odds are only one of Joe Cronin, Joe Cunningham, and Travis Shaw can make the roster, and it’s not clear if there is space for all three of Nomar Garciaparra, Dobie Moore, and Vern Stephens. Given that Bill White and Wade Boggs are entrenched as starters on the corners (with David Ortiz pushing White for time), there is a lot of pressure in the middle infield.

Even with the demotions of Joe Kelley and Hack Wilson, the Red Sox have eight OFers in camp, with established contributors Ted Williams (!), David Justice, and Mookie Betts all struggling to put the bat on the ball. This felt crowded even before camp started, with Manny Ramírez, Reggie Smith, Sammy Sosa, Williams, and Betts all but assured of spots. Add to that the stellar debuts from Carl Yastrzemski and Alex Johnson, and it’s all a bit of a mess.

Final Cuts

The acquisition of Gabby Hartnett leaves the C position pretty crowded, especially given Dobie Moore can fill in behind the plate in a pinch. As such, Bob Brenly heads to the minors despite a decent showing last season. He was joined by recent acquisition Rollie Fingers who needs another year of development at least.

The C position was finalized with Dave Engle‘s demotion, as Billy Bryan holds on to his roster spot behind Hartnett.

Moore’s presence also allows the Red Sox to keep only 1 of Claude Ritchey and Wayne Causey. Ritchey performed better both last season and in the Spring, so Causey finds himself on his way to AAA.

Young Jim Kaat impressed during the Spring, but will start the year at AAA, as will veteran IF Nomar Garciaparra, who again showed too little to warrant a WBL roster spot.

Despite showing some promise–certainly more than he showed in a disastrous 2000–Nixey Callahan will start the year at AAA, as will Jameson Taillon. 1B was always going to be crowded, when David Ortiz hit 6 homeruns during the Spring, it got ridiculous. That earned Ortiz a roster spot, with Joe Cronin and Joe Cunningham both heading to AAA, and Travis Shaw sticking with the Red Sox due to his ability to backup Wade Boggs at 3B.

And then there was one cut left to make.

The choices were Bill Doak (excellent last year, horrendous this Spring), Alex Johnson (a total unknown tearing the cover off the ball this Spring), or Carl Yastrzemski (a strong Spring, but no real place to get regular playing time). Memphis decided to get Yaz some regular at bats, making him the final cut of the Spring.

TWIWBL 28.0 – AAA Roundup, July 1st

Another month, another quick trip through the minor leagues!

Featured Team: New Orleans Pelicans

The AAA affiliate of the Memphis Red Sox has the second best record in AAA, leading their division by 6 games. They’ve managed to keep their lead despite a fairly constant amount of churn as players move up and down with the parent club.

The Pelicans lead with their offense, with the near-constant presence of veteran Joe Cronin at 1B, 2B Dustin Pedroia, and OF Joe Kelley. Bob Brenly, Eddie Rosario, and Wayne Causey have all been strong contributors who, like Pedroia, spent a fair bit of time in Memphis.

Cronin leads the team in homeruns with 13, followed by Brenly with 11. Brenly has the most impressive slash line of the regulars, with his 299/342/664 giving him an OPS just over 1.000.

Joe Kelly (the other one–note only a single e in the last name) leads the way on the mound with a 6-3 record and a 3.36 ERA. Andrew Miller is 5-0 since his promotion from AA with an ERA of 3.03. The bullpen is anchored by Luiz Gohara, who has 14 saves and an ERA under 3. Gohara and Kelly each started the year in Memphis.

#AAA Leaders

If you are a devotee of OPS, the best batters in AAA have been Baby Doll Jacobson (Washington / Baltimore Black Sox; 1.114); Jung Ho Kang (Columbus / Wandering House of David; 1.042), and Joey Votto (Cincinnati / Indianapolis ABC’s; 1.000). Jacobson and Votto are both with their WBL clubs now. Those 3 are closely trailed by Merv Rettenmund (Washington; .996) and Al Kaline (Toronto / Detroit Wolverines; .984).

Kaline is 3rd in AAA in BA and OBP, and 2nd in hits while Rettumund is tied for the lead with 21 homeruns, and leads in RBIs and Rs. Aaron Judge (Norfolk / Philadelphia Stars), Jacobson, Benny Kauff (Hartford / New York Gothams), and Kevin Young (Louisville / Homestead) each have 21 HRs as well.

Finally, along with Kaline (3.3) and Rettenmund (3.1), Max Carey (Louisville) and Cliff Lee (Seattle / Portland) are the other AAA players with a WAR over 3.

Cincinnati’s Virgil Trucks has been, by far, the dominant starting pitcher, leading the league with a 2.05 ERA and a 10-3 record. Trucks also leads the league with 8 complete games and a 0.94 WHIP, and is second in the league with 167 strikeouts. Bob Gibson (St. Louis / Kansas City) trails Trucks with a 2.36 ERA and 9 victories and two other starters, AJ Burnett (Newark / New York Black Yankees) and St. Louis’ Jock Menefee also have ERA’s under 3.00. Burnett’s teammate, Lefty Gomez, leads AAA with 181 strikeouts in 115 innings.

San Jose’s Billy Taylor (San Francisco Sea Lions) and St. Louis’ Adam Russell lead AAA in saves with 21 and 20, respectively.

#AAA Awards

Rube Melton (Atlanta / Birmingham Black Barons) was the AAA Pitcher of the Month, going 4-0 with a 2.58 ERA, striking out 53 in under 40 innings; while Cincinnati’s Doc Hobitzell was the AAA Player of the Month, hitting .426 with 11 home runs in June.

AAA Players of the Week: Hobitzell twice, along with Steve Garvey (Montréal / Ottawa Mounties [since traded to the Los Angeles Angels]) and Cincinnati’s Jhonny Peralta.

#AAA Hottest Prospects (24 Years and Younger)

100 AAA PA/50 AAA IP minimum; must be in AAA now, or only recently promoted.

C: Cliff W. Lee (22, Seattle). 318/359/624. 20 HR, 56 RBI.
1B: Doc Hoblitzell (23, Cincinnati). 331/361/647.
2B: Juan Samuel (23, Norfolk). 294/347/569.
3B: Charlie Reilly (23, San Jose). 315/343/622.
SS: Asdrúbal Cabrera (22, Washington). 282/309/550.
LF: Joe Kelley (20, New Orleans). 261/379/523.
CF: Rick Monday (23, Montréal). 275/381/584.
RF: Al Kaline (20, Toronto). 340/410/574.

SP: Jake Peavy (23, Newark). 5-2, 3.44, 1.08 WHIP. Jock Menefee (24, St. Louis). 5-4, 2.75, 1.11 WHIP. Sam McDowell (24, Buffalo / Cleveland Spiders). 9-4, 4.80, 1.26 WHIP. Ralph Branca (22, Quebec / Brooklyn. 7-4, 3.43, 1.17 WHIP).

RP: Luiz Gohara (20, New Orleans). 3-1, 14 Sv, 2.73, 1.33 WHIP. Al Spalding (24, Hartford). 1-0, 4 Sv, 3.00, 1.00 WHIP.

TWIWBL 24.11: Mid-Season Reviews – Memphis Red Sox

Summary

Just a poor season so far for Memphis. The pitching has gotten the bulk of the blame, but there’s plenty to go around.

What’s Gone Right

The Splendid Splinter. Despite a bit of a fade leading into the break, 20 year-old OF Ted Williams is the clear offensive leader here, tops on the team in most counting stats.

The Back End. Closer Joe Beggs leads a bullpen trio along with Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell that has been excellent.

Solidity. The lack of star power may be a weakness, but there’s really little to complain about in the production Memphis has received from Bill White, Reggie Smith, and Wade Boggs. Similarly, on the mound, Jon Lester and Dean Chance have been perfectly good.

What’s Gone Wrong

The Mound. Nothings really worked here–Lester and Chance have been the best starters, but it deteriorates rapidly from there, with Nixey Callahan and Roger Clemens fumbling chance after chance to nail down their rotation spots.

Middle Infield. The 2B conundrum seems to have been solved with Claude Ritchey, but that took a while to sort out. SS is still an issue, as Vern Stephens contributes almost nothing offensively.

The Reserves. Memphis’ bench is just a bit weak. Especially disappointing has been Eddie Rosario, although Manny Ramírez‘ performance has been head-scratching as well–but at least Ramirez has some power.

Key Storylines

The Red Sox have some talent they can move, so the key here is how the makeover goes.

A very minor note: Williams took the mound for a horrible two outs: he is asking to get another shot. The question is whether that would increase or decrease his 40.50 ERA.

Trading Outlook

SELLING!

There are a lot of useful parts here that could be of interest to potential contenders, including Tim Wakefield, Ritchey, Beggs, Jim Pagliaroni, Bell, Bob Brenly, and Papelbon.

Minor league talent would include Mike Timlin, Dom DiMaggio, Fred Lynn, and David Justice.

Like I said, a lot …

AAA Shuttle

Not great. Bascially, it’s been players being jettisoned for poor performance (Wayne Causey, Brenly, Dustin Pedroia), and then recalled because of a lack of options (Clemens). Lynn has done alright since being recalled.

Midseason Changes

Justice exchanges places with Rosario and Francisco Lindor joins the big league club.

Awards

All Stars: Craig Kimbrel (P); Reggie Smith (CF); Ted Williams (RF).

Offensive MVP: Ted Williams (OF)
Pitching MVP: Joe Beggs (RP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: New Orleans Pelicans

Next to the Show: P Hank Gehring, RP Mike Timlin, OF Tony Conigliaro, OF David Justice.

Prospects: OF Tony Conigliaro (21), OF Joe Kelley (20), P Andrew Miller (22).

Projects: RP Luiz Gohara (20), SS Francisco Lindor (24), OF Fred Lynn (32), 1B David Ortíz (26), P Hank Gehring (27), P Bill Doak (26).

Suspects: 3B Luis Salazar (35), OF Larry Hisle (34).

AA: Tulsa Drillers

Prospects: 2B Ozzie Albies (20), OF Willie Crawford (17).

Projects: P Sadie McMahon (22), 3B Butch Hobson (24), P Lance Broadway (25).

Suspects: Ps Rafael Pérez and Zack Segovia (both 25), OF Cecil Espy (21).

TWIWBL 20.1: Series XVII Notes – Bill James Division

#Los Angeles Angels

With an exhausted staff, Jeurys Familia was sent to AAA with Ron Romanick coming up to the big leagues to make a start. It didn’t go particularly well, as Romanick gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. But Kal Daniels hit 2 homeruns, and Doc Gooden continued his revival with 2.2 innings of scoreless relief, picking up the win in the 8-6 victory over San Francisco.

#Memphis Red Sox

Young Roger Clemens clearly has talent. But a 1-5 with an ERA over 6, it’s time for him to get some seasoning at AAA before trying his stuff against WBL hitters once again. Joe Kelley was promoted to Memphis, with 35 year-old Nomar Garciaparra being released.

Kelly’s start was unsuccessful–8 hits and 5 runs in just over 3 innings–sending him right back to AAA, with Derek Lowe returning to Memphis. Still needing a starter, Memphis brought Clemens back with Wayne Causey moving down to AAA.

3 hits from Wade Boggs and a 3-run inside-the-park homerun from Claude Ritchey provided more than enough support as Jon Lester improved to 7-5 with 6 innings of 4-hit ball without allowing an earned run as the Red Sox beat the Black Yankees, 6-1. Len Barker was injured on the mound, and will spend 10 days on the DL. Sadie McMahon was released and Bill Doak promoted to the big leagues.

#Wandering House of David

The House of David are thrilled to have Pete Browning back. Their star OF went 2-for-4 with his 8th homerun to support nearly 7 strong innings by Jack Taylor, who improved his record to 5-6. Scott Downs and Rollie Fingers bridged the way to Bruce Sutter, who picked up his 5th save in the 3 to 1 victory over Miami.

Wade Miley allowed 3 hits and 1 run in 7.2 innings and Elrod Hendricks hit his 14th and 15th homeruns of the year, leading the House of David to a 9-1 victory over Miami. Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg, and Richie Hebner went deep as well in the rout.

Ferguson Jenkins‘ continued ineffectiveness finally landed him in AAA, with Phil Regan coming back to the team after his rehab assignment.

TWIWBL 9.1: AA Roundup

Featured Team: Madison Black Wolf (Chicago)

Chicago‘s AA affiliate in Madison started the year fine, with a 6-5 record after 11 games. Since then, they’ve lost fifteen consecutive games. They are certainly not that bad of a team, as 7 of the defeats have been by a single run. But still, 6-20–and 12 games back after a month–is not good.

No pitcher has more than a single win, with Harry “Green River” Buckner having probably been the best of them, despite a 1-4, 5.63 ERA showing so far. Ted Lyons (1-3, 5.52) and Sean Gallagher (0-3, 5.89) have pitched better than their records as well. Closer Scott Radinsky does have 2 saves and a 1.69 ERA but, as you may expect, has not had many opportunities.

The best offensive performer for the Black Wolf was OF Magglio Ordonez (320/397/660), but he was promoted to AAA Milwaukee. That leaves 20-year old SS/OF Jack Doyle (280/342/500) at the heart of Madison’s lineup. OF Henry Cotto has 7 HRs and 20 RBIs and is slashing 245/286/481. And there’s not a lot else.

Lyons, Gallagher, and Doyle are all under 22, and are currently the brightest prospects on the Black Wolf.

Top AA Performers

Jimmie Foxx (Sacramento/San Francisco) and Joe Rudi (Montgomery/Birmingham) have been the dominant offensive forces at AA, with both recently promoted to AAA. Foxx slashed 358/456/821 with 9 HRs at Sacramento and Rudi 359/400/859 for Montgomery. Atlantic City (Philadelphia)’s Prince Fielder leads AA with 13 HRs, and Fort Worth (Detroit)’s Bill Sweeney is hitting .400. More impressively, Oklahoma City (Kansas City)’s Johnny Bassler is keeping his OBP just shy of .500 at .495.

Of those, none are over the age of 22, and Bassler is only 17, so all should be considered prospects.

On the mound, three starters still have sub-2.00 ERAs: Sacramento (San Francisco)’s Turk Wendell at 2-0, 1.19; Charlotte (Baltimore)’s Dave Smith at 2-0, 1.64; and San Diego (Los Angeles)’s Sean O’Sullivan at 2-0, 1.71. Wendell also has a stellar 0.79 WHIP.

Syracuse (Homestead)’s Vern Law is 5-0 with a 2.97 ERA, but his future may be at 1B and not on the mound–clearly, though, if he keeps this up, he’ll progress as a hurler. Steve Bedrosian (Montgomery/Birmingham) and Mark Williamson (Charlotte/Baltimore) lead AA with 9 saves each.

Awards

AA Pitcher of the Month: Mark Williamson (Charlotte/Baltimore), 2-0, 9 Sv, 0.00 ERA.
AA Batter of the Month: Cy Williams (Albuquerque/House of David), .333, 9 HRs, 31 RBIs.

AA Player of the Week: Willie Crawford (Tulsa/Memphis); Richie Ashburn (Atlantic City/Philadelphia); Harry Stovey (Rochester/Cleveland); Adam Dunn (Nashville/Indianapolis).

Top Prospects

SP: Joe Nuxhall (15, Albuquerque/House of David), 3-0, 2.23 ERA; Larry Dierker (17, Albuquerque/House of David), 3-2, 2.51 ERA; Lew Krausse (21, Troy/New York Gothams), 2-2, 3.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 44 K.
RP: Steve Bedrosian (24, Montgomery/Birmingham), 1-0, 9 Sv, 0.00 ERA; Rick Camp (23, Montgomery/Birmingham), 2-1, 4 H, 3.09 ERA.
C: Frankie Hayes (19, Vancouver/Portland), 314/407/771.
1B: Jimmie Foxx (20, Sacramento/San Francisco), 358/456/821.
2B: Wally Backman (22, San Diego/Los Angeles), 337/419/554.
3B: Bill Sweeney (22, Fort Worth/Detroit), 400/467/550.
SS: Bert Campaneris (22, Albuquerque/House of David), 375/432/675.
OF: Joe Kelley (20, Tulsa/Memphis), 323/404/646; Willie Crawford (17, Tulsa/Memphis), 344/447/583, 11 2B, 21 R; Richie Ashburn (21, Atlantic City/Philadelphia), 379/426/544, 39 H, 3 3B.

Bold indicates league leader.

Getting to 30: Bill James Division

#Detroit Wolverines

The starting rotation looks set, with Justin Verlander and Jason Schmidt both being relegated to the bullpen for the time being. John Hiller was brought into camp to add a left hander to the bullpen, as Hal Newhouser, Whitey Wilshere, and Hank Aguirre all made the rotation. If Hiller sticks around, it will be most likely at the expense of Kevin Hart.

Promising youngsters Al Kaline and Charlie Gehringer failed to hold on to a spot in camp. Jorge Orta raised some eyebrows with his performance, but not enough to force his way into a crowded infield. The final cut at this point was Wes Covington, who was displaced from the roster by a fantastic showing from Tony Phillips.

20 year old Ty Cobb will need to impress to make the final 25, and the Wolverines would like to sort out the competition between Ray Chapman and George Davis at SS.

#Los Angeles Angels

Only two of Mike Smith, Chuck Finley, and Nolan Ryan should make the opening day roster. Similarly, the Angels will most likely break camp with only two arms in middle relief, meaning Darren Holmes and Jeurys Familia are battling for the final bullpen slot.

Andrelton Simmons beat out Kevin Elster as the reserve SS.

The other choices to get down to 30 are far more difficult. It was assumed Tim Wallach‘s power and High Pockets Kelly‘s versatility would earn them a roster spot, instead they are off to AAA, with both Mark Ellis and Doug Rader perhaps surprising many to still be in big league camp.

It has left them with fairly weak defense at 3B.

The organization is pretty thin at C, and is scouring for some depth.

#Memphis Red Sox

Luiz Gohara‘s implosion continued, and landed him in AAA. There are still a few spots up for grabs on the pitching staff, with Dean Chance and Eddie Cicotte fighting for the final long relief slot. Roger Clemens slipped into the #5 starting spot, settling the rotation, at least for now.

Closer Eddie Watt‘s injury is yet to be diagnosed, and could throw the bullpen into disarray, although both Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Beggs look capable of stepping into the role.

Truly poor performances from Claude Ritchey, Francisco Lindor, David Justice, and Dwight Evans made some decisions easy; a glut of players at 3B sent Bill Melton packing. But the final decisions were more difficult, with the failure of either Reggie Smith or Joe Kelley showing enough to claim the CF spot leading to an essential coin-flip that saw Smith stick with the big league team.

Bill White and George Scott will platoon at 1B. There is a battle in the OF between Mookie Betts and Tony Conigliaro for a final roster spot, with Betts holding the edge at this point.

#New York Gothams

Carl Hubbell‘s return from injury should setup a competition with Al Spalding for the final place in the starting rotation. Both should make the roster in what looks like a very deep pitching staff.

There are probably only 2 roster slots available for Buck O’Brien, Gaylord Perry, and Marcel Lachemann. The challenge is that all of them are pitching quite well. Matt Thornton and Aaron Loup pitched decently, but are headed to AAA. This leaves New York without a lefthanded arm on the staff aside from Hubbell, which may be an argument for him to land in the bullpen.

Bill Terry lost the battle at 1B and was sent to AAA.

The Gothams struggle from a real lack of defensive versatility, which constrains many of their roster decisions. If Benny Kauff, Art Devlin, or Brandon Crawford could play a 2nd position, they would probably still be on the roster.

#Wandering House of David

The initial cuts from the pitching staff were obvious, as 15 year old Joe Nuxhall‘s first exposure to big league camp was a disaster, and neither Kerry Wood nor Jeff Heathcock showed enough to stick around.

Tom Niedenfuer is the closer, but both Joakim Soria and especially Bruce Sutter have shown enough to handle that role as well. Veteran Dick Tidrow is getting a longer look than expected for the bullpen, and Arnold Carter may stick around as the only lefty in the pen, especially with the struggling Hector Rondon heading to AAA.

19 year old Cap Anson never found anything resembling a stride in Spring Training, and will be heading to AAA, along with Patsy Dougherty and Dave Altizer. All 3 of those had expectations of roles at the WBL level; they’ve been supplanted by Mark Grace and Anthony Rizzo at 1B, George Stone at LF, and George Gore and Jerry Mumphrey in CF.

Elrod Hendricks has seized a platoon role at C, with Frank Chance and Gabby Hartnett still fighting for their lives. They could keep both, but that would likely mean 1 of the pair of talented 20 year olds of Dick Lundy and Frank Grant would start the season at AAA.

Spring Training Preview: Memphis

  • The back of the rotation is pretty open, with 2 spots up for grabs and a competition between Len Barker, Dean Chance, and Jon Lester.
    • With Barker out for quite some time, and with literally no SP performing even adequately, this is wide open. Look for David Bush to be considered as well.
      • Bush and McMahon are the only SPs showing much promise. Assuming they make it, the other 3 slots are between Chance, Nixey Callahan, Eddie Cicotte, Roger Clemens, and Lester (all of whom have had highly mediocre Springs). The shock here is Clemens, who came in as the presumed #1 starter. Tim Wakefield has been sent back to AAA.
  • Luiz Gohara looks to be the closer, with Heath Bell and Derek Lowe behind him. It’s not clear beyond that, with Joe Beggs, Jonathan Papelbon, and Eddie Watt all in the running.
    • Gohara has lost the inside track on the closer job, with Papelbon and Watt now competing for it.
      • Watt–yet to allow an earned run–will close for now, with Papelbon and Beggs setting things up for him.
      • Ellis Kinder has been called up for some bullpen depth.
  • None of the IF jobs are up for grabs, although it’s not clear if Dustin Pedroia or Pete Runnels will backup Claude Richey at 2B, and Vern Stephens, Wayne Causey, and Nomar Garciaparra are all trying to make case to be Francisco Lindor‘s backup at SS.
    • 2B got more interesting, as Ritchey is mired in a horrible slump while Pedroia is hitting .500. Lindor is playing fine, but Causey, Stepehns, and Garciaparra are all playing better at this point. Something has to give here, with 3B Bill Melton the odd man out right now.
      • Pedroia has earned the starting nod right now, but none of the 2B are performing terribly.
      • Bill White would be the starter at 1B right now, with George Scott struggling to stay on the roster, given the other players who could fill in at 1B.
      • The SS situation hasn’t really changed. Stephens is doing best right now, and Lindor has to improve quite a bit to make the roster at all.
  • There may be 2 roster spots open for David Justice, Eddie Rosario, Joe Kelley, Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans, and Manny Ramirez to compete over.
    • Kelly, Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and Lynn are playing themsleves out of consideration while Tony Conigliaro and Rosario are moving up the chart.
      • The OF is pretty dire. Conigliaro and Rosario are hitting best. The assumption is that Ted Williams will come around, but aside from that it’s wide open. Right now, Lynn has been sent to AAA, and Justice is in danger of missing the roster cut for sure.
  • Jim Pagliaroni is hitting well enough to lay claim to the starting C job, with Bob Brenly‘s defense giving him the edge over Billy Bryan as the reserve.
Near DefiniteLikelyPossibleLong Shot
Starting PitchersSadie McMahonDavid BushLen Barker
Nixey Callahan
Roger Clemens
Dean Chance
Jon Lester
Eddie Ciccotte
Middle RelieversHeath Bell
Derek Lowe
Luiz Gohara
Turk Farrell
Ellis Kinder
SetupJonathan Papelbon
Joe Beggs
CloserEddie Watt
CJim Pagliaroni
Bob Brenly
Billy Bryan
1BBill WhiteGeorge Scott
2BDustin Pedroia
Pete Runnels
Claude Richey
3BWade BoggsBill Melton
SSVern StephensWayne Causey
Francisco Lindor
Nomar Garciaparra
OFTed WilliamsEddie Rosario
Tony Conigliaro
Reggie Smith
David Justice
Dwight Evans
Mookie Betts
Joe Kelley
Manny Ramirez

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