Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Johnny Ryan

Year II Season Preview: Birmingham Black Barons

Expectations

Pretty hard question: nobody expected a playoff run last season, now the fans will demand a repeat, but if the Black Barons can’t address some core offensive issues, that may be unlikely.

Best Case

The pitching continues to dominate, Juan Rincón holds down the closer spot, and either Sam Streeter or Warren Spahn step up to seize the 5th starting spot. On the other side, Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews move into the elite of the league and someone–anyone–steps up to support them.

Worst Case

The pitching falls apart, with Andy Pettitte and Alejandro Peña becoming solid, but no longer world-beaters and the bullpen collapses while the offense continues to be far too slapdash to be dependable.

Key Questions

  • How will some key pieces for last season–Pettitte, Rincón, Adrián González, Cupid Childs, Jim Pagliaroni–perform over the course of a full year.
  • With Andy Pettitte traded, how does the rotation respond and does Albert Belle perform at a level that makes it worthwhile.
  • Who will fill out the roster.

Trade Bait

The Black Barons would happily welcome an offensive star, but would have to mortgage their farm system to get one. Or, mortgage their best starter … which in a bit of a shock, is exactly what they ended up doing. It’s an interesting gambit: a true top of rotation star gone in exchange for a “win-now” bat (but Belle is aging) and a few arms for the future in Lefty Gomez and Frank Viola. We’ll see.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CPagliaroni
Tenace
1BGonzálezMcCormickBeckley
2BChilds
3BMathews
SSLongTulowitzki
LF/
RF
Aaron
Belle
NiemanBarbour
Pafko
CFGranderson
SPPeñaMaddux
Willis
StreeterMalarkey
EndBedrosian
Rincón
RPBenton
Chen
Young
Gomez
Malloy
Whitney
New Addition | Injured

Doesn’t look like a strong playoff contender to me. Now, if 3 to 4 players shift left one column … there’s just so much uncertainty. Six new faces, plus Belle, and while most of them are in reserve roles, it feels like a lot to ask for the Black Barons to repeat last year’s success.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw Power3B Eddie Mathews1B Nate Colbert
Batting Eye3B Eddie MathewsOF John Titus
ContactOF Hank Aaron3B Pie Traynor
Running SpeedSS Herman LongOF Rajai Davis
Base StealingSS Herman LongOF Rajai Davis
IF DefenseSS Herman Long3B Pie Traynor
OF DefenseOF Andy PafkoOF Billy Southworth
StuffSP Sam StreeterRP Bill James
ControlSP Jim WhitneyRP Johnny Ryan
VelocityRP Juan RincónRP Kerry Ligtenberg

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (32)24PJim Whitney
2 (36)20CJoe Torre
3 (43)20UJess Barbour
4 (54)202BTrea Turner
5 (58)25OFCurt Flood
6 (62)21PCozy Dolan
7 (63)26PRube Melton
8 (151)22PAlex Malloy
9 (156)192BMarcus Giles
10 (173)21PJonathan Pettibone
Others: OF Melky Cabrera; P Steve Avery.

Whitney, Dolan, Malloy, and Barbour start the season in the WBL (Malloy on the DL, but still). This is very much a make or break year for Flood.

MostLeast
AgeOF Sam Rice, 37SP Steve Avery, 18
HeightP Dustin Nippert, 6’8″OF Al Schweitzer, 5’6″
OPSOF Max Kepler, 1.233 (—)IF Gerry Jestadt, .604 (—)
HROF Max Kepler, 61 (—)IF George McBride, 1 (AAA)
OF Rajai Davis, 1 (AAA/AA)
OF Brock Davis 1 (AA)
SBOF Billy Southworth, 26 (WBL/AAA)Many with 0
WAR1B Nate Colbert, 4.4 (WBL/AAA/AA)IF Gerry Jestadt, -2.0 (—)
WBill Phyle, 17 (—)Harry Matuzak, 1 (—)
SVJuan Rincón, 26 (WBL)
ERAAaron Sanchez, 1.98 (—)Johnny Ryan, 6.90 (AA)
WARAaron Sanchez, 7.3 (—)Fred Fussell, -0.8 (WBL/AAA)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

TWIWBL 24.2: Mid-Season Reviews – Brooklyn Royal Giants

Summary

Brooklyn sits in 2nd place in the Marvin Miller Division, only 3.5 games behind Portland, despite a general sense they’ve underperformed on the season. So, I guess that’s good?

What’s Gone Right

The pitching. Don Drysedale has been among the better starters in the league, and Frank Knauss has emerged as a quality #2 starter. Don Sutton, Dutch Leonard, and Sandy Koufax have been solid behind them with Koufax occasionally spectacular (including the only 1-hitter in the league). Add to that a back-end trio in the bullpen of Dave Von Ohlen and Trevor Hildenberger setting up Watty Clark, and the Royal Giants have everything they need on the mound.

The AAA Shuttle. The Royal Giants have been quite successful in their call-ups.

  • Orel Hershiser and Smokey Joe Williams started the year in the WBL, but struggled. Their replacements–Tommy Hanson, Knauss, and Von Ohlen–have been excellent.
  • The original duo behind the plate–Mike Piazza and Steve Yeager–were horrible. Their replacements, Al López and Duke Farrell, look OK so far.
  • Raúl Mondesí, who earned a spot on the roster out of spring training, struggled, but Jermaine Dye looks to be the real deal as his replacement.

The Running Game. Five players (Duke Snider, Beals Becker, Jackie Robinson, Davey Lopes, and Dickie Thon) have more than 10 steals each.

What’s Gone Wrong

Power. Only Snider and Ron Cey have more than 10 homeruns (although, to be fair, both Becker and Robinson have 9). Still, some more pop would be a welcome addition.

Catching. As referenced above, Piazza was especially a disappointment, as he was expected to add some power to a lineup that really needs it.

The Infield. Cey is set at 3B, and Robinson clearly has a role. But the rest has been … unsettled at best. Dan Brouthers has been miserable at 1B, and may be on his way out of town, and neither Lopes (2B) nor Thon (SS) have really convinced. Ray Dandridge has been excellent in a limited opportunity, and should be an everyday starter from here on out.

Key Storylines

The Royal Giants have managed their AAA movement very well, as detailed above. Probably the key storyline here is their ability to remain competitive while still searching for their identity.

Koufax is a bit of an enigma, and his continued development bears watching–and the thought of what he and Smokey Joe Williams could be is quite enticing.

What to do with Robinson remains a challenge: he doesn’t field well enough to play 2B a ton, and doesn’t hit well enough to play 1B.

Trading Outlook

BUYING.

OFs Dye, Hi Myers, and Matt Holliday have some value. If the right opportunity came along, some of their SP surplus could be on the trading block: Hershiser, Leonard, Knauss.

AAA Shuttle

Piazza and Yeager have both done well at AAA, and may be due for a recall if López or Farrell falter. Likewise, Hershiser has been dominant in the minors and he, along with Darren Dreifort, are ready should they be needed.

Midseason Changes

Infield changes a-plenty. Robinson becomes the everyday 1B, with Brouthers being sent to AAA (Eric Karros was recalled to backup Robinson). 2B/SS is trickier: Dandridge becomes the starter at one of those, but there’s just nobody in the system arguing for playing time. So Dandridge will start, with a bit of rotation between Thon and Lopes, if no other moves are made.

Hildenberger moves into the setup role, demoting Eric Gagne.

Awards

All Stars: Don Drysedale (P).

Pitcher of the Month: Don Drysedale (April)

Offensive MVP: Duke Snider (CF)
Pitching MVP: Don Drysedale (SP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: Queens Kings

Next to the Show: OFs Matt Holliday & Curt Flood, RP Darren Dreifort.

Prospects: P Ralph Branca (22), P Tim Stauffer (26).

Projects: There are a ton, but let’s just focus on the 24 year-olds: P Smokey Joe Williams, C Mike Piazza, OF Raúl Mondesí, OF Curt Flood, and 1B Dan Brouthers.

Suspects: Ron Perranoski (25), Jordan Zimmerman (26), IFs Todd Walker and Manny Trillo (both 33), SS Germany Smith (28).

AA: Jersey City Skeeters

Prospects: CF John Briggs (20), P Lou Marone (23), 3B Hank Majeski (23).

Projects: P Chris Short (21), P Fernando Valenzuela (23), P Dustin McGowan (23), OF Morrie Arnovich (25), C Phil Lombardi (23), SS Sonny Jackson (19).

Suspects: P Ben Hendrickson (23), 1B Kevin Maas (30), IFs Don Heffner (33) and César Izturis (27). P Johnny Ryan (22).

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