Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Josh Hader

TWIWBL 95.3: The Rookie Draft

One of my favorite things each year. The WBL Rookie Draft is always a bit “juiced,” with both some high end talent and some historical “decent” players, but there is plenty of dross here as well in the later rounds.

We’ll cover the first 3 rounds pick-by-pick here, then rounds 4-10 team by team.

A reminder: each team can make 2 picks outside of players historically associated with their seed franchises; the rest (until the tail end of the draft) must come from players that spent a significant period of their career with them.

OOTP does its usual fun on whether these picks actually sign, so news on that will hit future TWIWBL’s.

We are moving towards the 2002 season, for reference. Debut is, of course, an estimate.

#Round 1

Note that Round 1 contained 2 compensation picks for picks from last year’s draft that refused to sign.

PickTeamPlayer & AgePosDebutNote
1.1MCGPedro Martínez (19)P2004Currently a reliever, his live arm warrants a move to the rotation at some point.
1.2MEMJim Rice (18)OF2005Joins a system stocked with young OF, so some trades loom at some point. But, saves an exception pick, which has some value.
1.3CAGZack Greinke (20)P2004Perhaps solves a need for arms; refused to sign last year.
1.4LAARod Carew (19)2B2005Incredibly weak IF system gets a significant boost. At some point, 1B gets crowded, but that’s a problem many years down the road.
1.5SFSJohn Smoltz (19)P2005The rich get richer.
1.6NYGAmos Rusie (18)P2002The best pitcher who looks WBL ready right now. Also a franchise pick.
1.7OTTJim McCormick (21)P2003A gamble, but OTT is desperate for SP.
1.8HOMDavid Cone (19)P2004Another franchise that needs rotation help.
1.9BALJose Altuve (17)2B2006One for the future, but potentially solves the position.
1.10HODJuan Soto (18)OF2004Honestly surprised he fell this far, Soto will cause some issues on the roster, but they’ll be well worth solving.
1.11KCMChris Carpenter (19)P2005More pitching needed, as always.
1.12MCGJack Glasscock (20)SS2004An interesting pick. First potential flop of the draft, but his arrival should coincide well with MCG’s needs as Robin Yount moves out of the middle infield.
1.13NYYGiancarlo Stanton (18)OF2005Not likely to stay with NYY due to a draft-day deal with NYG for Gaylord Perry. That’s dependent on Stanton signing, though.
1.14HODBingo DeMoss (21)2B2004A worthy successor to Ryne Sandberg.
1.15INDDave Winfield (21)OF2003A bit of a steal for the ABC’s.
1.16HODGeorge Zettlein (27)P2002Having used their exceptions, the HOD’s choices were quite limited. Here, they opted for some immediate help, hopefully.
1.17HOUEd Morris (20)P2003Houston will soon have an embarrassment of rotation riches–which should serve them quite well.
1.18PHIDarryl Strawberry (18)OF2003Another pick that will lead to a crowded roster, but Strawberry’s peak is too attractive to ignore.
1.19CLETodd Helton (22)1B2003A long-term solution to an aging position for the Spiders.
1.20PORJack Fournier (16)1B2006A big bat, but a long ways away.
1.21BRKBrett Butler (22)OF2004A safe pick, and perhaps overvalued here.
1.22SFSDick McBride (24)P2003More help on the mound for the Sea Lions.

#Round 2

PickTeamPlayer & AgePosDebutNote
2.1OTTRobbie Ray (20)P2004The peak is attractive.
2.2BBBYoenis Céspedes (27)OF2002Some immediate help for a somewhat crowded OF.
2.3CAGJosé Quintana (20)P2005More long term rotation help.
2.4LAACharlie Leibrandt (21)2B2005More pitching depth. Spot a pattern?
2.5HODPat Luby (20)P2004With their exceptions used up, the pool thins out quickly.
2.6LAAGarry Templeton (19)SS2005Templeton didn’t sign with HOU last year, he find himself in an organization more desperate for MI help this year.
2.7OTTBilly Jurges (21)SS2003Maybe a hedge against Álex Rodríguez’ eventual shift to 3B?
2.8CAGJosh Hader (19)P2005Eventual closer possibility for a team that should need it.
2.9KCMBill Sherdel (20)P2005A surprise pick. We’ll see.
2.10BBBRon Gant (18)SS2007BBB traded up to get Gant who, while a few years away, does project as a decent corner OF.
2.11KCMAllen Sothoron (20)P2005More pitching, constrained by franchise history.
2.12PORJosh Johnson (18)P2006Development needed, but decent upside.
2.13INDJohnny Allen (24)P2002A potential steal, as Allen could help this season.
2.14BALJouett Meekin (22)P2003Another intriguing selection–immediate help, if not a lot of extended value.
2.15HOUPaul Splittorf (22)P2004Decent mid-rotation talent.
2.16PORBob Groom (23)P2003More medium talent with potential near-term impact.
2.17CLETommy Corcoran (17)SS2006A pick for the future, but not a bad bet.
2.18HOUTommy Harper (20)OF2005HOU has an affection for these multi-position, roster extended options.
2.19BRKZane Smith (21)P2005Brooklyn believes deeply in stockpiling arms and letting them develop, Smith fits that profile.
2.20SFSJimmie Lyons (20)OF2003No room for him in SFS, but his talent is undeniable.

We’re quickly moving to less immediately impactful names, so we’ll do the rest of the draft as team summaries.

TeamRounds 1-2Rounds 3-12GradeGrade/ Notes
BALJose Altuve (2B), Jouett Meekin (P)Billy Lush (OF), Terry Crowley (1B), Herm Starrette (P), Levin Jones (OF), Eddy Rodríguez (P), Gosuke Katoh (1B), Earl Cook (P), Jerry Hinsley (P), Candy Sierra (P)CAltuve is great, but very young. Not a lot from the rest, although Crowley has some pop in his bat.
BBBYoenis Céspedes (OF)Steve Cishek (P), Ricardo Hernández (3B), Ed Hanyzewski (P), Grant Dayton (P), Lefty Wallace (P), Harry Hulihan (P), Zach Vincej (SS), Jake Smith (P), Dale Roberts (P), Kid Baldwin (C), Brandon Larson (3B)CHernández has some potential, but this is not a great draft, even if Céspedes comes good somewhat immediately.
BRKBrett Butler (OF), Zane Smith (P)Jerry Garvin (P), Lew McCarty (C), Mickey Hughes (P), Davis Daniel (P), Joe Evers (1B), Marvell Wynne (OF), Ed Albosta (P), Shaun Anderson (P)BA good job. Butler will have a WBL career, and both Smith and Garvin have live arms. Wynne may be a steal as well.
CAGZack Greinke (P), José Quintana (P), Josh Hader (P)Bob Priddy (P), Dominic Fletcher (OF), Mike Caruso (SS), Harry Clark (3B), Ross Gload (OF), Mem Lovett (1B), Rómulo Sánchez (P), Al Kellett (P), Hugh Canavan (P), Vaughn Eshelman (P)A-The first 3 picks are all excellent additions to a system starved for pitching. Not a lot else, although Caruso and Gload may have some potential.
CLETodd Helton (1B), Tommy Corcoran (SS)Julián Tavárez (P), Emil Levsen (P), Abraham Almonte (2B), Chauncey Fisher (P), Jerry Fahr (P), Cotton Knaupp (SS), Dalton Jones (2B), Juan Castillo (2B), Rabbit Benton (2B)B+Helton solves a long-term issue, the rest seems fine, with Tavárez being a decent pickup.
DETRiley Greene (OF), Kid Madden (P), Jakie May (P), Howie Krist (P), Nate Cornejo (P), Bill Barrett (C), Jess Pike (P), Ambrose McGann (2B), Bud Smith (P), Otto Jacobs (C), Jeter Downs (2B)CNo picks in the first 2 rounds hurts a lot, but Greene could be a steal for the Wolverines.
HODJuan Soto (OF), Bingo DeMoss (2B), George Zettlein (P), Pat Luby (P), Ron Gant (SS)Terry Larkin (P), Vern Olsen (P), Billy Holland (SS/P), Elmer Yoter (3B), Steven Hill (C), Harry East (3B), Lev Shreve (P), Phonney Martin (OF)ACould be transformational. Soto is a generational talent, DeMoss a clear succession plan for Ryne Sandberg, and even Holland has some intriguing potential as a 2-way player.
HOMDavid Cone (P)Cliff Chambers (P), Bob Walk (P), Jimmy Ripple (OF), Red Witt (P), Jeff Wallace (P), Harry Jordan (P), Bill Hallman (OF), Larry Ciaffone (OF), Jaycob Brugman (OF), Jeff Doyle (2B)BCone is a great pick, but there’s not a lot else here.
HOUEd Morris (P), Paul Splittorff (P), Tommy Harper (2B)Lou Piniella (OF), Ken Suarez (C), Jim Wohlford (SS), José Cisnero (P), Mike Hedlund (P), Clint Hurdle (C), Danny Bautista (OF), Rance Pless (1B), Bob Friedrichs (P), Ricky Gutiérrez (SS), Mauro Zárate (P), Rod Gilbreath (3B), Gene Moriarity (OF)B+Could be higher, depending on how Morris develops. Lots of potentially useful marginal pieces in later rounds–Piniella, Hurdle, Gutiérrez.
INDDave Winfield (OF), Johnny Allen (P)Gary Redus (OF), Tex McDonald (SS), Dusty Miller (OF), Billy McCool (P), Chub Sullivan (1B), Tom Wiedenbauer (OF), Jackson Tetreault (P), Logan Allen (P), Mike Champion (2B)AWinfield being available was shocking. Allen and Redus being added makes the draft a surprising success.
KCMChris Carpenter (P), Bill Sherdel (P), Allen Sothoron (P)Casey Kotchman (1B), Tex Pruiett (P), Fred Holdsworth (P), Gerónimo Peña (2B), Otto Schomberg (1B), Wish Egan (P), Pete Naton (C), Tom Donohue (C), Harley Dillinger (P)CWeird. Lots of franchise picks, but not a ton of actual value behind Carpenter.
LAARod Carew (2B), Charlie Leibrandt (P), Garry Templeton (SS)Steve Henderson (OF), Jack DiLauro (P), Mike Trost (C), Dennis Ribant (P), Lou Pote (P), Zach Lutz (3B), Dave Pierson (C), Doc Land (OF), Rubén Quevedo (P), Francisco Peña (c)B+Sure. Carew fills an obvious need, as does Templeton.
MEMJim Rice (OF)Sam Jethroe (OF), Joe Hornung (OF), John Healy (P), Hal Rhyne (SS), Joe Ellick (3B), Joe Cicero (OF), Jerry Mallett (OF), Iván Cruz (1B), Sam Childs (1B), Tony Balsamo (P), Harry Smith (2B)BAnother young OF? Really, Memphis? And after that, adding Jethroe to Rice? There better be some trades a-coming.
MCGPedro Martínez (P), Jack Glasscock (SS)Jesús Lazardo (P), Bobby Vaughn (2B), Erasmo Ramírez (P), Jing Johnson (P), Billy Redmon (SS), Scott Olsen (P), Steven Ames (P), Mario Ramírez (SS), Francis Martes (P), George Milstead (P)AAny draft that gets you Martínez is an A. But … Glasscock may be an overreach.
NYGAmos Rusie (P)Red Murray (OF), Dave Veres (P), Harry McCormick (P), Alvin Davis (1B), Kiko Calero (P), Frank West (P), Luis Castillo (P), Héctor Sánchez (C), Andy Rincon (P), Ed Wilkinson (OF), William Coon (OF), Kevin Collins (3B)CLove me some Rusie, and he’ll help right away … but the rest … Veres and Calero fit with the Gothams’ bullpen obsession.
NYYGiancarlo Stanton (OF)John Kruk (1B), Rich Coggins (OF), John Shaffer (P), Frank Gilhooley (OF), John Ryan Murphy (C), Dutch Rudolph (OF), Marcus Wilson (OF), Darrell Johnson (C), Roy Witherup (P), Mike Shea (P)DStanton is headed out of town, making this a much weaker draft, even if Kruk looks like a solid bat. Still, the Black Yankees never have cared about the draft, so perhaps that’s unfair: if Perry brings them a championship, they’ll see this as a great draft, no matter what Stanton does.
OTTJim McCormick (P), Robbie Ray (P), Billy Jurges (SS)Al Woods (OF), Jesse Carlson (P), Wilton Guerrero (2B), Ed Atkinson (OF), Dane Myers (OF), Bill Collver (OF), Orlando Mercado (C), Emanuel Snyder (OF)CMaybe? They need arms, so maybe?
PHIDarryl Strawberry (OF)Harry Eisenstat (P), Andy Hansen (P), Ben Tincup (P), Jack Scheible(P), Pat Bohen (P), Doc Amole (P), Ben Froehlich (C), John Peters (OF), Fred Buckingham (P), Andy Sommerville (P), Joe Schultz (C), Travis Swaggerty (OF)C-The Strawberry pick makes total sense. The rest … not so much.
PORJack Fournier (1B), Josh Johnson (P), Bob Groom (P)Steve Brye (OF), Rich Reese (1B), David Hulse (OF), Joe Gedeon (OF), Kyle Garlick (OF), Carlos Pascual (P), Moe Berg (SS), Bill Sarni (C), Terry Humphrey (C), Jesús Montero (C), Babe Ellison (1B)CTalk about looking to the future … Fournier has a future, but he’s 16. And the run on catchers at the end is just downright odd.
SFSJohn Smoltz (P), Dick McBride (P), Jimmie Lyons (OF)Joe Dunand (2B), Kevin Kobel (P), Nate Mondou (2B), Hank Hulvey (P), Bert Kuczynski (P), Jerar Encarnación (OF), Greg Aquino (P), Dorn Taylor (P), Art Smith (P)AI mean … how did they do this? Smoltz is a rotation arm, Lyons has immense talent.

TWIWBL 93.2: THE ROOKIE DRAFT, Year 2 – The Preview

This year, the Rookie Draft will be 8 rounds in length. The natural draft pool has been enhanced with a handful of top 1000 career and single season performers by WAR, as well as a few entries from i9s.

Each team may make 2 “free” picks, meaning they can select anyone in the draft. For the rest of their selections, they are limited to players historically attached (meaning, a significant amount of their playing time) to their franchises. Once they’ve made 8 picks (2 free and 6 franchise), these restrictions are lifted, although preference is still given to franchise appropriate selections.

Here are the teams, listed in the draft order, and their number of picks per round in the draft:

Team12345678Tot
POR1212111110
MEM12211119
CAG1231119
LAA12121119
BBB1211218
NYG1411119
OTT12111118
HOM1211117
BAL11111117
HOD312111110
KCM12111118
MCG213118
IND11111117
DET2111117
HOU1222111111
PHI12111118
CLE11111117
NYY1211117
BRK1111116
SFS21111118
NYY and HOD have additional 1st round picks due to FA losses; HOU has an additional 3rd round pick.

A few things jump out from that:

  • There’s a little bit of the rich getting richer with San Francisco’s 2 1st rounders and Houston’s draft-leading 11 total picks.
  • The House of David are in probably the best position, with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds.
  • Brooklyn, Detroit, and Homestead need to draft well to maximize challenging positions, either in total number of picks or their distribution.

Here’s how the AI sees the top twenty prospects, along with the franchises that are eligible to draft them without expending one of their “free” picks.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Rod Carew2B19LAA, POR
2Ed MorrisLHP20HOM
3Jim RiceCF18MEM
4Amos RusieRHP18NYG
5Darryl StrawberryCF18LAA
6Jim McCormickRHP21CLE, HOD
7Jack GlasscockSS20CLE, IND, KCM, NYG
8Tommy Harper2B20IND, OTT, MEM
9Ben TincupRHP20PHI
10Bingo DeMoss2B21CAG, HOD, IND
11Joe HornungOF20MEM
12Brett ButlerRF22BRK, CLE, NYG
13Jimmy RippleCF25NYG
14John HealyRHP23
15Pedro MartínezRHP19MEM, OTT, LAA
16Bob GroomRHP23POR, BAL
17Steve HendersonLF23LAA
18Otto Schomberg1B21
19Giancarlo StantonOF18MCG, NYY
20George ZettleinRHP27CAG, PHI

That is, of course, a really odd list in places (Jimmy Ripple, anyone?). So here are the next 15, in no particular order and according to me.

#NamePosAgeFranchises
1Jack Fournier1B16CAG, BRK, KCM
2Todd Helton1B22HOU
3John SmoltzRHP19BBB
4Juan SotoRF18POR, HOU, NYY, LAA
5Chris CarpenterRHP19KCM, OTT
6Ron GantSS18BBB, KCM
7Zack GreinkeRHP20HOU, BRK
8Charlie LeibrandtLHP21HOU, BBB
9David ConeRHP19LAA, NYY, HOU, OTT
10Josh JohnsonRHP18MCG
11Robbie RayLHP20HOU, OTT
12Garry TempletonSS19HOU, KCM
13Josh HaderLHP19MCG
14Jimmie LyonsLF20CAG, HOD, IND, KCM
15Johnny AllenRHP24CLE, NYY

Season Review: Chicago American Giants

88 - 66, .571 pct.
3rd in Cum Posey Division, 3 games behind.
Lost to Portland in Wild Card Round

Overall

An amazing offense, a solid pitching staff. But ultimately not enough: which means a solid pitching staff is insufficient for a team with championship aspirations.

The offense was a joy, though: Eddie Collins is a virtually perfect baseball specimen, and Frank Thomas, Joe Jackson, and Dick Allen are spectacular hitters.

What Went Right

All the offense all the time.

The top four batters each had OPS’ over .900 and between the four of them hit 102 homeruns, drove in 386 runs and scored 394. They even stole 100 bases, but really that was entirely Collins (61) and Jackson (34). Collins is the oldest at 27 with the other three 24 or under, so the future is bright here.

And it’s not like the offense drops much behind them: Duffy Lewis had a SLG over .500, Mike Fiore had an OBP over .400, Carlton Fisk‘s OPS near .800 makes him a pretty elite hitter for a catcher, and Cristóbal Torriente had a solid year overall and a great one considering he’s still a teenager.

On the mound, AJ Minter was among the best closers in the league and David Price was spectacular after being brought over from Indianapolis. Ben Sheets and Tricky Nichols were good, perhaps a little better than good and Ed Walsh showed flashes of excellence.

Hoyt Wilhelm and Ken Sanders were good out of the pen.

Note how tepid the praise is getting …

ALL STARS
3B Dick Allen; 2B Eddie Collins; OF Joe Jackson; OF Duffy Lewis; RP AJ Minter; P Tricky Nichols; 1B Frank Thomas

What Went Wrong

The American Giants brought in Freddy Parent at the all star break to solidify the SS position. The revolving door there stopped, but Parent wasn’t very good–certainly not as good as he was in the first half of the season for Ottawa.

Five players (Magglio Ordoñez, Jack Doyle, José Abreu, Luke Appling, and most of all Damian Jackson) were given 100+ PAs to lay claim to jobs, and they each failed somewhat spectacularly.

But really the focus here has to be on the mound. Chicago had its share of hurlers who were given a chance and weren’t up to it–every team does. But they had a much larger group of pitchers who were just far too mediocre for a championship team. This includes Dick Rudolph, who was no worse than he was for Birmingham but also no better; Akinori Otsuka, Mark Buehrle, Herb Pennock … the list goes on. Special mention has to be made of Don Newcombe, whose raw numbers are good until you encounter his home run rate. Not giving up a lot of hits doesn’t mean a lot if the ones you give up continually leave the yard.

Transactions

March

None

June

OF Melky Cabrera, P A. Rube Foster, 1B Adrián González & 2nd Round Pick to Birmingham for P Hoyt Wilhelm & P Dick Rudolph

Regret may set in, especially around Foster, but the move made sense at the time, and Wilhelm is almost a unique reliever, which makes up for a little bit of the lost value.

OF Minnie Miñoso to Miami for P Don Newcombe, P Clay Condrey & 4th Round Pick {José Quintana}

If Necombe turns it around, maybe this was worth it. Maybe.

3B Sibby Sisti; OF Bob Watson; 2B Rickie Weeks to Ottawa for SS Freddy Parent

Another one that seemed quite reasonable at the time, but Watson especially may be missed (at the same time, he was pretty completely blocked positionally at Chicago).

July

3B Robin Ventura, P Tyler Clippard, 4th Round Pick & 5th Round Pick to Indianapolis for P David Price & 2B Jorge Orta

Ventura was a bust in Chicago, and especially in light of Price’s stellar performance, this feels fine.

Looking Forward

SP

This is a need. For now, the American Giants are fine, but the long term trio of Ed Walsh, Mark Buehrle, and Harry Buckner is solid, but not spectacular.

RP

Minter and Wilhelm are good and there is some talent behind them, notably Scott Radinksy (despite his struggles this season) and Hector Neris.

C

Carlton Fisk is expected to be here for quite some time.

1B

Frank Thomas. Simply, Frank Thomas.

2B

Eddie Collins. Simply, Eddie Collins.

3B

Dick Allen. Simply, Dick Allen.

SS

This is likely an issue–and soon if Freddy Parent doesn’t turn it around. Luke Appling and Tim Anderson are waiting in the wings if that comes to pass.

LF

Duffy Lewis was surprisingly effective, and has the claim on the position for a while.

CF

The American Giants were as surprised as anyone that Mike Fiore led the league in walks.

RF

Joe Jackson. Simply, Joe Jackson.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The American Giants were thrilled that Jacob DeGrom was still on the board with the 18th pick. Whether he shows up in Chicago next year or the year after, he should arrive very soon to help out their rotation.

In the third round, they picked up CF Lenny Dykstra in a “best player available” move and in the 4th, SP José Quintana, because you can never have too much young pitching and OF/1B Walter “Steel Arm” Davis, because you can never have too many cool nicknames.

Rounds 5-8

With no picks in the 5th or 6th rounds, Chicago’s franchise exceptions dropped significantly in value. They need a few 1B, some help at 3B, arms, and some OF depth. Still, they were able to grab Freddy Sánchez in round 7 and Cass Michaels in round 8, each of which have a shot at WBL time at some point (Michaels as soon as this season as a utility IF).

Rounds 9-12

P Josh Hader (final exemption); P Tom Williams; P Vern Kennedy; OF Craig Gentry.

4th round pick José Quintana and and 9th round selection Josh Hader both refused to come to terms for Chicago, who will receive compensation in next year’s draft for Quintana.

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