Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Luis Olmo

Year III Season Preview: Cleveland Spiders

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Spiders are the best team in the league that nobody’s quite sure how to describe. 2 straight playoff trips, 2 Octobers that ended a round or 2 early — 86 wins and a quick exit in 2000, then 89-73 and a genuine run in 2001, a Wild Card series won over the increasingly hated Black Yankees before the Sea Lions swept them out of the AL Championship. No fatal flaw, no dominant edge. What Cleveland owns instead is optionality: a dozen paths to a win, room to absorb a bet that breaks wrong, and a roster deep enough that no single injury sinks the year (a thesis proven by the absence of controversial star Tris Speaker for all but 40 games of 2000).

The problem is that the same depth cuts the other way. Almost nobody on this roster is fully reliable, fully trusted. So, Do we believe in this guy? is a question Cleveland re-asks on every regular, every March. There is a cliché nature to some of it as well: like so many others, the Spiders are starved for pitching — either an ace to depend on or enough depth to not care. But Cleveland keeps making deals where they move around offensive players, not really addressing the clear bar between them and the elite teams.

Still, a perennial playoff team is nothing to sneeze at, and the talent is here to put it all together. Even if nobody is quite sure exactly how.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring worried about one position: who plays third base? It was a question of pure scarcity — nobody had stepped up. It was answered very loudly by Evan Longoria: 36 homers, 96 RBI, a Silver Slugger, an AL All-Star nod, and superlative glovework to boot.

Our other big fear was Ron Blomberg collapsing. He most certainly did not collapse, but the cracks deepened. Overall, you cannot complain about his season — 276/348/640 with 54 homers and 143 RBI. But his platoon splits are getting more troubling. Against RHP he was fantastic as ever (321/403/771); against LHP he hit 206/251/432, essentially the same as 2000, but his walks plummeted and his strikeouts took off. Around him the up-years arrived in force: Tris Speaker recovered from injury to slash 312/397/631, Lance Berkman launched 57 homers with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders, Larry Doby hit 41 while seizing claim to the fulltime job in right, and Ed Bailey posted a .920 OPS at C, at 36 to boot.

Still, it ended up par for the course: the arms were fine, but no more than that, and the team couldn’t cross the final hurdle. It’s not a bad place to be — most teams would be envious of the Spiders’ track record. But it’s also not a championship.

Key Changes

In: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Out: Joe Sewell (NYY); Joe Smith (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Jim H Manning; Chaz Roe

Best Case for 2002

Someone anchors the staff, with the most likely candidate being Bob Feller, who went 13-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts as a 21-year-old. And some still think Cy Young will be more than an innings eater. If 1 of those happens, Cleveland will do well, and if by some miracle both happen, perhaps that will get them over the hill.

The key players bounce back (Louis Santop‘s bat returns to his glove, Chuck Knoblauch looks like himself again), and the strong 2001 performances hold — Speaker, Berkman, Longoria, Doby, Arky Vaughan, Bailey. Finally, the Spiders shelled out some value for newly acquired Aroldis Chapman to solidify the bullpen. He has to deliver.

All of that comes together, and there could be celebrations by the lake come Fall.

Worst Case for 2002

It all breaks the other way, everything altogether all at once. Knoblauch’s 2001 wasn’t a dip but the start of a decline; Santop’s bat stays gone; Willie McCovey‘s 34-year-old legs give out, making his compelling late-career debut merely a mirage; Bailey acts his age; Blomberg collapses against more than just LHP; Berkman slides; and Speaker either gets hurt or just pisses everybody off too much. Feller’s elbow breaks, the rotation is again good-not-great, and in a division stacked with the Black Yankees, Tigers, Orioles, and a suddenly-well-armed Memphis, the Spiders plummet in the standings.

Key Questions

  • Does Feller become the ace — and if he doesn’t, will Cleveland finally buy one? Watching Memphis wheel and deal for not 1 but 2 front line starters has to sting a bit, and raise the question of whether Cleveland’s unwillingness to do the same is warranted conviction about their internal talent or front-office timidity when it comes to betting on pitching.
  • Bounce or decline — which is which? Cleveland’s core competency is reading talent on a roster where almost every regular swings 2-plus WAR a year in one direction or the other. It’s a tricky see-saw, and making the wrong call has repercussions. That’s part of what makes Knoblauch (a real sub-replacement collapse in 2001, discipline intact but the power gone) and Santop (a Gold Glove-caliber 21-year-old whose bat cratered) so important: if they fail, not only are there no clear replacements, but it means the org may be fundamentally misguided in how it judges the swings.
  • What does this lineup do against left-handed pitching? Cleveland bats left-handed almost top to bottom — Speaker, Blomberg, Doby, Bates, and McCovey all swing from the left side, into a park built for left-handed power — which is a wonderful thing to be against right-handers and a real potential weakness against lefties. John Ellis, Longoria, and Knoblauch are the right-handed bats of consequence, with Ken Keltner behind them (Berkman and Sammy Strang switch-hit, so they step out of the tilt entirely). It’s an accident of construction more than a plan, and it hasn’t bit the team so far, but it is something to watch.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBailey A · Santop F · Ellis F
1BBerkman A · Blomberg A · McCovey
2BKnoblauch D · Strang
SSVaughan A · Manning
3BLongoria A · Strang
LFBates C
CFSpeaker S · Doby B
RFDoby B · Berkman A
DHMcCovey · Blomberg A
SPSteen C · Young D · Feller D · Malone · Harder
RPAdams C (CL) · Reed C · Chapman F · Gearrin C · Roe

Speaker, the best player in the org at 24, is also its most difficult presence — the kind of star a proud city hasn’t decided how to love, a target of adoration while the club wins, but if the losses start to pile up, how long will his attitude towards his teammates be tolerated? At the other end of the scale sits McCovey — the 34-year-old who turned up and mashed a 1.107 OPS, a lovable late-bloomer a fanbase can wrap its arms around unreservedly.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerCF Tris Speaker3B Bob Elliott
Batting Eye2B Sammy Strang3B Bob Elliott
ContactCF Tris Speaker2B Steve Sax; CF Kenny Lofton
Running SpeedSS Jim H ManningLF Pat Friel
Base Stealing2B Sammy Strang; LF Johnny BatesSS Bill Dahlen; CF Kenny Lofton
IF Defense3B Evan Longoria2B Sean Rodriguez
OF DefenseCF Tris SpeakerRF Alexis Rios
StuffRP Aroldis ChapmanSP Balor Moore
ControlSP Chuck PorterRP Edward Mujica
VelocityRP Chaz RoeRP Sergio Romo; RP Andrew Bailey

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (63)24RFCraig Wilson
2 (75)23CFLuis Olmo
3 (96)23CFRandy Winn

Others: IF Todd Helton, IF Johnny Hodapp, IF Aubrey Huff, P José Lima, P Balor Moore.

Three ranked prospects, all outfielders, none inside the top 60 — a system a year ago we called one of the worst in the league is, well, still pretty barren. Longoria, Berkman, Vaughan, and Bailey all arrived by spending prospects, and the thin system is what’s left over.

Last year’s top names have turned over completely — Joe Sewell, No. 4 a year ago, was shipped to New York this spring for Chapman. There is some hope in Helton, Hodapp, and Huff, but the position concentration is an issue. Balor Moore is the one arm worth watching — 101 innings of 3.56 ball with 86 strikeouts at Penn Yan, then a 12-inning cameo at Rochester he came through unscored upon.

Kenny Lofton, the org’s Minor League Player of the Year, is a WBL talent stuck at Triple-A.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeEd Bailey, 36Abraham Almonte, 17
HeightRon Reed, 6’6″Ned Cuthbert, 5’6″
OPSTris Speaker, 1.028Matt Carpenter, .458 (A)
HRLance Berkman, 57Steve Sax, 1 (AA)
SBKenny Lofton, 85 (AAA)
WAR (bat)Tris Speaker, 6.7Louis Santop, −1.5
WCy Young, 15
SVTerry Adams, 23
ERABalor Moore, 3.18 (A)Yordano Ventura, 5.98
WAR (pit)Bill Steen, 4.9Howard Ehmke, −0.0 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 92.3: Off Season Review – Cleveland Spiders

89 - 73, .549 pct.
2nd in Bill James Division, 1 GB
Won AL WC 4-1 over NYY
Lost in AL Championship 4-0 to SFS

Overall

Cleveland had made the playoffs both WBL seasons, but is still in search of that elusive championship.

And, it’s not clear what’s next: unlike Detroit or the Black Yankees, they lack a young superstar to build around; unlike Brooklyn, they lack the pitching to nonchalantly ignore other concerns. They have talent, for sure, but they also seem at risk of imminent collapse.

So some tinkering is in order, or, at least, some good luck to ensure that some of the young talent continues to develop.

What Went Right

Tris Speaker recovered from injury in a major way, emerging as an elite force at CF, slashing 312/397/631 and scoring 124 runs. Nobody likes him, but he doesn’t care.

Lance Berkman is comfortably home in Cleveland, leading the team with 57 homeruns and finishing with a 1.002 OPS in his first full season with the Spiders. I mean, maybe Berkman and Speaker get along.

Ron Blomberg continues to frustrate his critics, slashing 276/348/640 despite a growing platoon split. Blomberg and Berkman tied for the team lead with 143 RBIs.

At 36, Ed Bailey performed as hoped for after coming over from Detroit. It’s unknown how long that lasts, but a .950 OPS from a catcher is a rare thing.

Larry Doby arrived at last, hitting 41 homeruns and providing a solid presence in RF.

Evan Longoria seized the 3B job, settling an open question for the Spiders with 36 homeruns and 96 RBIs.

Arky Vaughan proved the Spiders were right to trade for him last season, providing an .873 OPS and superlative defense at SS.

And then there’s Willie McCovey. Abandoned by most critics to being a AAA veteran, McCovey seized his WBL chance by the scruff, belting 17 homeruns in 140 PAs and refusing to be kept out of the lineup. How that plays out next season is unknown, and at 33 it’s not clear if this is a single season’s good story or the start of a late career blossoming.

The staff is far less comprehensible.

Bill Steen led the way in WAR, with a 13-10 record and a 4.71 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Cy Young led the way in wins with a 15-9 record, but a disappointing 5.38 ERA. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Bob Feller has the best stuff of the trio, leading to a 13-3 record with a 4.30 ERA in 17 starts, to go along with some impressive bullpen appearances. So perhaps he should be considered the staff ace?

Whomever claims that role, they’ll have decent support form the bullpen, with Terry Adams (23 saves), Cory Gearrin, the impressive debut of Al Smith, Firpo Marberry, and the predicted return of Ron Reed from injury.

Mention should be made of Mel Harder, who posted a 10-4 record and a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts before being injured. Harder should be fully recovered for Spring Training.

ALL STARS

Terry Adams
Ron Blomberg
Evan Longoria
Tris Speaker
Arky Vaughan
MAJOR AWARDS

Ed Bailey, All AL Team
Johnny Bates, AL LF Gold Glove
Evan Longoria, All AL Team
Arky Vaughan, All AL Team; AL SS Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Ed Bailey, AL Over 30 Team
Lance Berkman, All AL 2nd Team
Bob Feller, AL 21 & Under Team
Evan Longoria, AL 25 & Under Team
Firpo Marberry, All AL 3rd Team; AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Ron Reed, All AL 3rd Team
Al Smith, All AL 2nd Team
Tris Speaker, All AL 2nd Team; AL All Rounder 3rd Place
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Tris Speaker, MVP
Bill Steen, Pitcher of the Year
Lance Berkman, Heart & Soul
Evan Longoria, Fan Favorite

Balor Moore, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Kenny Lofton, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Probably the biggest disappointment on the offensive end was Louis Santop. Santop is only 20, so he has time to recover from his sophomore slump, but what a slump it is: slashing 195/238/348 will never cut it. Still, Santop’s slump is what prompted the acquisition of Ed Bailey, so that worked out.

Chuck Knoblauch had a hard year, managing only a .700 OPS with very, very little power.

About 200 PAs were wasted on Jake Stahl and Sammy Strang, neither of which could even hit as poorly as Santop.

Pat Malone was thoroughly mediocre on the mound, and while his 28 starts were somewhat useful, his 5.81 ERA was not.

Really, that’s about it–there were other mediocrities on the roster, and some of the usual poor performances across a few dozen innings, but it was a good year by the Lake.

Transactions

March

None.

July

C Victor Martínez, P Bill Drake & 3rd Round Pick to DET for C Ed Bailey & P Claude Passeau.

It was a lot to give up, especially if Drake develops as expected, but Bailey was great and Passeau has some talent, so it probably works out for both teams.

August

None.

Positional Overview

C

Next season will open with the same arrangement as this one closed: Ed Bailey as the regular, with Louis Santop coming in for defense and for his own development. John Ellis can also play here occasionally.

Tucker Barnhart and Andy Etchebarren offer attractive defensive-minded alternatives in the minors.

1B

Willie McCovey has forced himself into this conversation, which has some domino effects, as it moves Lance Berkman from an everyday 1B, to someone splitting their time between 1B, LF, and DH. Ron Blomberg will be here some times, and young Paul O’Neill could be here as well if he makes the roster.

Further down in the system, Bill Phillips and Earl Torgeson have some talent, and Jake Stahl is still at AAA if needed.

2B

The Spring may determine this: Chuck Knoblauch is still the favorite, but both Steve Sax and Sammy Strang will get at least brief looks.

Brandon Drury may be the best in the system.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

This was a mess last year, but Evan Longoria has claimed it as his own. This is really useful, as other than Bob Elliott, the talent that is here (Johnny Hodapp, Aubrey Huff, Justin Turner) is all pretty young.

LF/RF

Johnny Bates won the Gold Glove in LF, and probably hits well enough to stay there, but Berkman will eat into some of his time. Larry Doby seems to have the RF spot locked up.

Paul O’Neill will get a long look in the Spring, and both Alexis Rios and Craig Wilson have some talent as well.

CF

An interesting position: Tris Speaker is the CF, no questions there, but Kenny Lofton may be the best trading chip the Spiders have. Doby and Bates can play here as well, and Gus Bell and Jackie Bradley have some talent behind them.

Lower in the system, both Luis Olmo and Randy Winn may have WBL potential as well.

DH

Berkman and Ron Blomberg, with some help from Willie McCovey.

SP

If everything went well, Cy Young, Bill Steen, and Bob Feller would make a strong front 3, with Firpo Marberry, Mel Harder, and Pat Malone providing whatever support is necessary, along with contributions from Stan Coveleski and Yordano Ventura.

But that all feels very, very optimistic: Young and Feller have the talent to take those roles, the rest are a little more suspect.

There is depth in the system, but little high end talent other than perhaps newcomer Claude Passeau. But the group of Wilbur Cooper, Howard Ehmke, Sudden Sam McDowell, Balor Moore, and Whit Wyatt should offer some support at some point.

RP

Terry Adams is a solid closer, and the trio of Ron Reed, Corey Gearrin, and Al Smith look great (there are questions: Reed is recovering from injury and Smith has to avoid that famed sophomore slump). Beyond that, Billy Muffett may get a look in the Spring.

Toby Borland and Andrew Bailey may be needed here at some point.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 0
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

So that’s not great. Especially for a thoroughly mediocre system.

TWIWBL 56.5: Spring Training Notes – Cleveland Spiders

Spring Training Questions

A couple bullpen slots are available, but most of the focus will be on the 3B and OF.

Injuries

Justin Speier will miss the start of the season with an elbow issue.

First Cuts

Cleveland removed a few arms from its big league camp, sending General Crowder, Eric Wilkins, and Steve Gromek to the minors. Both John Keefe and Sudden Sam McDowell are still around, but neither have impressed, and need to improve if they want to survive the next round of cuts.

Sal Butera has been hitting well, and Victor Martinez has done enough to stick around, sending Ray Fosse and Andy Etchebarren down to the minors. They’ll be joined by James Loney, Aubrey Huff, Don Kessinger, and Jim Gantner (surpassed by Bobby Avila in the depth chart). Bill Phillips really hasn’t hit enough to stick around, but his defensive versatility keeps him in camp.

At SS, Bill Dahlen‘s glove continues to keep him in camp, but Joe Sewell–no slouch with the leather himself–is hitting well enough that Dahlen needs to show some improvement at the plate to survive the next round.

Which brings us to the confusion at 3B. Evan Longoria and Bob Elliott have hit well; Brandon Drury has been OK, and neither Ken Keltner nor Sammy Strang have shown much at all. In other words, nothing is much more clear than when camp opened: working this out over the next week is key for the Spiders.

The OF picture has gotten a bit clearer as four of the contenders (Luis Olmo, Randy Winn, Trot Nixon, and Bruce Campbell) combined to hit well under .200, earning a group ticket back to the minors. At the other end, Larry Doby may finally be living up to his scouting hype, starting out on fire in early action.

Second Cuts

John Keefe and Sudden Sam McDowell were unable to improve enough to stay in camp.

Hal Trosky mashed the ball in a brief WBL appearance last year, but hasn’t done enough to preserve his place with the Spiders. Trosky refused to head to minor league camp, earning him his release. Bill Phillips, Bob Elliott, Ken Keltner, and Rick Burleson were all demoted.

SS remains a concern: Joe Sewell has been fine, but both Bill Dahlen and Arky Vaughan are hitting well under .200.

Third Cuts

Sergio Romo‘s performance in a handful of games last season keeps him in camp, but he’s on the edge for sure. Balor Moore was not as lucky, as the lefty headed to minor league camp. Justin Speier, currently injured, was sent down as well.

Louis Santop has struggled, but is clearly the starting C. The battle between Victor Martinez and Sal Butera to be his backup is fierce, however.

1B is a total logjam, and a likely source of trade bait. Jake Stahl, Lance Berkman, and John Ellis are all locks, and Paul O’Neill has been the Spiders’ best hitter in camp. With Ron Blomberg slotted in as the DH, one of these four probably needs to move on.

Over at 3B, Evan Longoria may be finally delivering on his promise, and is pushing Sammy Strang as the presumed starter. Strang continues to not be able to hit, but his ability to get on base and his defense clearly have some value. That leaves the injured Brandon Drury the odd man out.

The OF is slowly clearing out, but remains overcrowded especially as Berkman and O’Neill should see some time here as well. Elmer Flick heads to AAA. A key here is the ability of Tris Speaker, Rowland Office, Peanuts Lowrey, and Johnny Bates to all develop some positional flexibility. The battle between Office and Lowrey is key, and likely to come down to whether Lowrey batting right handed means more or less than Office’s better defense and greater flexibility.

The Final Cuts

Bobby Avila was the first odd man out, a move that essentially assures Sammy Strang his spot as a reserve 2B if nothing else. Sal Butera won the competition with Victor Martinez to break camp as the backup backstop–and with John Ellis able to play there as well, there was no need for Martinez to stay in camp.

In a bit of a surprise, Peanuts Lowrey, who was useful for Cleveland last season, heads to AAA. The Spiders may regret moving out Lowrey’s right-handed bat, but the OF situation just didn’t have any remaining room. Less surprising, but still unexpected, it looks like Joe Sewell has won the backup SS role, with veteran Bill Dahlen heading to AAA.

The Spiders needed 2 cuts to make it to 30. Those were C Sal Butera and P Wilbur Cooper.

Al Smith and Sergio Romo were the final cuts from the staff, meaning both Firpo Marberry and Yordano Ventura made the roster. From there on, it was all surprises and hard choices. Kenny Lofton lost not only the starting CF spot but his roster spot, and the Spiders were unable to find a roster spot for Paul O’Neill despite him being among the Spring batting leaders. Finally, Rowland Office was squeezed out, as the Spiders’ OF was just too crowded.

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