Overall

What a surprising year in Philadelphia!

This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.

It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.

It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.

The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.

The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).

What Went Right

We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.

Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.

Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.

At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.

Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.

At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.

Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.

ALL STARS

Hardie Henderson
Aaron Judge
Charles Rogan

MAJOR AWARDS

Willie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove

RECOGNITIONS

Fred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team

ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Charles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite

Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.

The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.

Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.

Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.

There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.

Transactions

March

None.

July

P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.

It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).

August

P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.

This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.

OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. Why not.

Positional Overview

C

Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.

There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.

1B

This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.

Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.

2B

It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.

There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.

Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.

LF/RF

RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.

There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.

CF

This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.

This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.

And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.

DH

The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.

SP

Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.

The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.

Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.

RP

Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?

That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

The Stars could make a move for a 2B, or even a CF. But really their future is wrapped up in the continued development of their current talent.

I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.

Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.

#C

So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.

The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.

#1B

Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.

In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.

#2B

These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.

#SS

In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.

The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.

#3B

The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.

#LF

The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.

The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.

#CF

Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.

Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.

#RF

The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.

In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.

#P

We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.

Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.

Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.

#The Gold Gloves

There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.

But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:

6. Cleveland
5. Philadelphia
4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland
3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco
2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa
1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles

We have a new defensive metric for outfielders: ARM, which is an estimate of the number of runs saved (or allowed) from their throwing arms.

#S Tier

The top of this list is easy: welcome to the WBL, Turkey Stearnes!

After that, it’s unclear. In one sense, maybe it’s just Stearnes? But Tris Speaker–as disliked as he is–had a great season. So, maybe it’s just the two of them? But it feels like Mike Trout and Oscar Charleston are certainly in a different class than the bulk of the A Tier.

I think this is a reflection of how great of a year Sternes had: consider him in an S+ tier by himself.

#A Tier

Joe Rogan played more CF than anything else (other than pitcher), so he’s listed here.

Willie Mays is Willie Mays, and is expected to spend most of his career here and above. The rest can be considered surprises: John Briggs was seen by many as a AAA player who would fail in his rookie season; Julio Rodríguez was an afterthought invite to Spring Training who seized the opportunity; and while it was expected that Rogan would be solid as a 2-way player, nobody foresaw this.

#B Tier

Sure. Eric Davis continues to struggle with injuries, Carlos Beltrán needs to put the ball in play a little more, and Ken Griffey, Jr. is only 20. This also reinforces the trade between Portland and Ottawa–Beltrán deserves his starting spot in the WBL, and Griffey, Jr. needed a fresh start.

Any of these three could move up, while Davis seems the most likely to crash out as his injuries continue to mount.

#C Tier

Here we get to set of CF that are always being questioned–they are good enough, but there’s always a lingering question about whether they’re actually the solution. This impacted George Gore the most, who was essentially a half-time player this year, and is least an issue for Pete Hill, given his age.

Chili Davis is solid, but his defense is far from solid, and Reggie Smith–like some others in the Memphis clubhouse–is under threat from a wave of emerging talent.

#D Tier

Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen had their names penciled in almost every day … which leads to a question of why they escaped the criticism seen by the tier above? For Granderson, it is answered by his defense, power, and the fact that his deficiency–putting the ball safely in play–was a team-wide issue for Birmingham.

Jake Stenzel stopped hitting for power when he arrived in Chicago, cementing his place in this group, while Paul Blair is only here due to his exceptional defense.

#F Tier

Willie Davis and Jim Edmonds do enough with their gloves to stick around somewhere, and Davis is certainly young enough to improve more offensively. The rest are a challenge: Willie McGee is in danger of losing his job, Dale Murphy has obvious power, but is clearly not best suited for CF, and then there’s Cristóbal Torriente, whose defensive impact is unmistakable, but is clearly overwhelmed at the plate at this point.

#Rookies

This is in incredible rookie class, with Stearnes (S Tier), and Rodríguez, Rogan, and Briggs (all A Tier). And, oh yeah, Dale Murphy way down in the F Tier Tier.

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

The Stars opted to start Hardie Henderson over Steve Carlton for game 1; for the Colt 45’s there was no question they would turn to Toad Ramsey and his mighty knuckleball.

Sherry Magee continues to be effective as the Stars’ leadoff hitter: here he coaxed a walk from Ramsey, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on Jim Fregosi‘s grounder for an early 1-0 lead. It may have been wasted effort, as Aaron Judge hit one into the Crawford Boxes, giving Philadelphia a 2-0 advantage.

It was short-lived: Jim Wynn doubled and scored on a triple from Tony Gwynn. Henderson got 2 outs, but left a sinker up to Paul Goldschmidt, who sent it deep into the seats for a 3-2 edge to Houston after 1 inning.

Ramsey seemed to settle down, but Houston continued its onslaught against Henderson, with George Brett going deep in the 2nd and Goldschmidt, after an error by Scott Rolen put Jeff Bagwell on base, hit his 2nd of the day, making it 6-2.

A single from Pete Hill leading off the 4th chased Henderson, but Robin Roberts escaped the inning without additional damage.

The Stars put runners on 2nd and 3rd (a walk to Chase Utley and a Magee double) with 1 out in the 5th. Ramsey walked in a run, but Philadelphia would be sad not to take greater advantage of the situation. Roberts continued to be effective, and we ended 5 with Houston ahead, 6-3.

Houston got some insurance in the bottom of the 8th as Hill laced a 2 run double, scoring 2 and increasing the score to 8-3.

Philadelphia had their chances, leaving 10 runners on base in the contest, but in the end–in what can only be seen as a good sign for the Colt 45’s–Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Tug McGraw, and Sparky Lyle combined for 4 scoreless innings in relief of Ramsey.

Goldschmidt was the clear star for Houston, driving in 4, but Carlos Correa and Hill chipped in 2 hits apiece. Magee and Rogan had 2 hits for the Stars.

Houston up, 1-0.

PHI 3 (Henderson 0-1) @ HOU 8 (Ramsey 1-0; Chafin 1 H; Osuna 1 H; McGraw 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (1); Goldschmidt 2 (2), Brett (1).
Box Score

#Game 2, Thu 4 Oct

Philadelphia would turn to Steve Carlton, trying to even out the series against Houston’s Roger Clemens.

Once again Aaron Judge went deep in the opening frame, this time with a solo shot. The Stars scored a second on an RBI single from Rico Carty, meaning, for the 2nd consecutive game, Philadelphia leads 2-0 before Houston comes to bat.

The script diverged there, however briefly: the Colt 45’s cut the deficit in half on a solo shot from Jeff Bagwell in the 2nd. In the 3rd, a leadoff walk to Craig Biggio was followed by a double in the right field corner by Jim Wynn. Tony Gwynn launched a ball to left, forcing a nice diving catch from Sherry Magee, but it was more than enough for Biggio to trot home. But the Colt 45’s weren’t done: Carlos Correa hit an RBI single and then Bagwell launched his 2nd of the game, giving Houston a 5-2 lead.

Carlton lasted 5, Clemens 6, with neither pitching particularly well, turning the game over to the shakiest parts of each bullpen.

Houston seemed to blink first, as John Franco gave up singles to Ted Kluszewski and Bill Dickey to start the 7th. But a pop to short center and a good throw by Jorge Posada to nail Dickey’s attempt to steal second seemed to offer an avenue out. But Franco allowed singles to Magee and Chase Utley, narrowing the lead to 5-4 and fetching Jim Kern from Houston’s bullpen. Kern induced a flyout from Charles Rogan, maintaining the single run advantage for the Colt 45’s.

And this is what Houston had envisioned: Tug McGraw shut it down before yielding to Sparky Lyle to close it out, giving the Colt 45’s a 2-0 edge in the series.

Bagwell’s 2 homeruns were key, of course, but so were Posada’s erasing 2 runners attempting to steal.

It was another game of missed opportunities for Philadelphia, who outhit Houston 11-5 in the contest. 3 of those came from Judge, who is 4-for-8 across the 2 games. The Stars’ bullpen did well, with Brad Kilby, Fred Cambria, and Ted Kennedy combining for 3 frames without giving up a hit.

PHI 4 (Carlton 0-1) @ HOU 5 (Clemens 1-0; Lyle 1 Sv; McGraw 2 H; Kern 1 H; Franco 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (2); Bagwell 2 (2).
Box Score

#Game 3, Sat Oct 6

We head to Philadelphia with something of a must-win game for the Stars, who will turn to the magnificent Charles Rogan, while Houston will counter with Ice Box Chamberlain.

Rogan balked in a run in the top of the first, but escaped a flurry of baserunners without further damage.

Aaron Judge did not hit a homerun in the opening frame, but he did drive in a run with a single, and later scored on a 3-run opposite drive by Jim Fregosi, putting the Stars up 4-1 after 1.

Then both hurlers settled down, and the score was unchanged through 5 innings. Jeff Bagwell took Rogan deep in the 6th, and when that was followed by a walk to Paul Goldschmidt, JM Ward was summoned from the Philadelphia bullpen. Ward retired Pete Hill, and the Stars still led, 4-2.

Judge was not to be denied, hitting one out of the park after Rogan was hit by a pitch. Fregosi followed with his 2nd of the day, chasing Chamberlain who gave up only 4 hits, but 8 runs.

Judge would add another, and Bill Dickey would go deep as well in what turned out to be a bit of walkover, 10-2 in favor of the Stars. Judge drove in 4 and Fregosi 5 on the day as Philadelphia corrected their errors of the first 2 games scoring 10 runs on 6 hits and leaving only a single runner on base.

HOU 2 (Chamberlain 0-1) @ PHI 10 (Rogan 1-0; Ward 1 H)
HRs: HOU – Bagwell (3); PHI – Fregosi 2 (2), Judge 2 (4), Dickey (1).
Box Score

#Game 4, Sun Oct 7

Game 4 presents challenges for each team’s pitching staffs.

For Houston, Stephen Strasburg‘s solid performances down the stretch earned him the start, while Philadelphia will counter with their ace, Hardie Henderson, fully rested after a very short appearance in game 1.

Henderson started well, but walked 3 batters to start the top of the 2nd. George Brett doubled home 2 runs and another scored on a groundout from Jim O’Rourke. Pete Hill tripled home another run and scored on a sacrifice fly from Paul Goldschmidt, making it 5-0.

Chase Utley took Strasburg deep with Willie Davis on 2nd in the 3rd, closing the gap to 5-2.

A leadoff single from Craig Biggio chased Henderson, bringing in Robin Roberts. Bill Dickey whipped Roberts first strike to first, catching Biggio leaning the wrong way–something that may matter, as Jim Wynn followed with a homerun. Houston now led, 6-2–we’ll see if that extra run comes back to haunt them.

Scott Rolen went deep in the bottom of the 4th. 6-3. Doubles from Dickey and Sherry Magee plated another run in the 5th. 6-4.

But Tony Gwynn singled in 2 runs in the 6th to restore the cushion, making it 8-4, Houston.

A 1 out walk to Rolen in the 6th chased Strasburg after a decent enough effort, but Andrew Chafin was able to escape unscathed. The 7th did not go as well for Chafin, who gave up opening singles to Davis and Utley. In came Jim Kern, who induced a double play from Magee and a sharp grounder to short from Charles Rogan, preserving the lead.

But in the 8th, Jim Fregosi came through with a 2-run shot, cutting the lead in half, 8-6.

Philadelphia’s bullpen sort of imploded in the 9th: Bagwell doubled and scored on a single by Hill, who scored on a double by Goldschmidt. Wynn then drew a bases loaded walk, and Gwynn singled in 2 more runs. The 5 run explosion made it 13-6, Houston.

Philadelphia had some baserunners, but it came to naught, and Houston took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

Brett and Gwynn had 3 hits each with Gwynn, now hitting .353 in the series, driving in 4 runs on the day.

The bottom of the Stars’ order came to play, with Dickey, Davis, and Utley each having 2 hits.

HOU 13 (Strasburg 1-0, Kern 2 H, McGraw 3 H) @ PHI 6 (Henderson 0-2)
HRs: HOU – Wynn (1); PHI – Utley (1), Rolen (1), Fregosi (3).
Box Score

#Game 5, Mon Oct 8

Perhaps surprisingly, the first team with a chance to clinch their spot in the Division Series is the Houston Colt 45’s. The stellar Toad Ramsey gets the ball for Houston, while the Stars will turn to Ray Collins.

Jeff Bagwell singled in a run in the top of the first, and then Paul Goldschmidt launched a ball deep into the OF. An odd bounce and a poor throw later, and Goldschmidt had an inside-the-park homerun and Houston had a 3-0 edge.

Ramsey started a bit rough giving up singles to Sherry Magee, Aaron Judge, and Scott Rolen to score 1 and a 2-out double to Charles Rogan, resetting the game in a tie. Houston nudged ahead again when George Brett, who had tripled, scored on an RBI groundout from Jorge Posada.

And then both pitchers remembered how to pitch: the score remained 4-3, Houston, through 6 innings, which marked the end of Collins’ day.

Bagwell greeted Brad Kilby with a solo shot in the top of the 8th, extending the lead to 5-3. Houston brought in Jim Kern for the 8th, and he struck out 2, preserving the 2 run advantage, and then they padded it, scoring 3 in the top of the 9th (2 on Carlos Correa‘s first homerun of the series).

The Colt 45’s brought in Sparky Lyle with a 5 run edge, leading 8-3. Rico Carty and Rogan whiffed, bringing Philadelphia to their last batter, catcher Bill Dickey … a hard groundball, fielded by Correa, rifled to first. And Houston is through to the Division Series!

Bagwell, Gwynn, Brett, and Posada each had 2 hits for the Colt 45’s.

HOU 8 (Ramsey 2-0) @ PHI 3 (Collins 0-1)
HRs: HOU – Goldschmidt (3), Bagwell (4), Correa (1); PHI – none.
Box Score

Bagwell, who hit .300 with 4 homeruns, was named Series MVP, but Goldschmidt and Gwynn deserved consideration as well. And, perhaps most importantly for Houston, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Jim Kern, and Andrew Chafin combined for over 10 innings of scoreless work out of the bullpen.

Aaron Judge (.421 with 4 homeruns and 6 RBIs) also deserved at least cursory MVP consideration.

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

The Stars clearly need to keep adding talent: the gap between the leaders of the team–Aaron Judge, Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, Hardie Henderson–and the end of the roster is just too great. But it’s a start.

THE OFFENSE

Philadelphia’s problem, simply, is its offense. They don’t hit for average, they don’t get on base, and they don’t hit for power. Not sure what else there is … they do run the bases decently.

#What’s Going Right

Aaron Judge, an extra part in the Bill Dickey/Mike Schmidt trade, has absolutely exploded on the scene, with an OPS just under 1.00 and leading the team in HR and RBI.

Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan is far better offensively than anticipated, sporting the 2nd highest OPS on the team and leading the Stars in SLG at .615 and BA at .295. Rogan is playing all over the place, but seeing most of his time in the OF.

Scott Rolen leads the team in WAR with an OPS around .950.

At 37, Rico Carty is still useful. He can’t move, can’t field much, but he can hit, even with occasional power.

#What’s Not Going Right

Everything else?

C continues to be a black hole, with Mike Scioscia slightly more effective than Butch Wynegar and Sherm Lollar.

Willie Davis, a leader on the team last year, is slashing 233/290/373 this season, which is quite a plummet.

Ted Kluszewski has a little power, but little else: a SLG barely over .400 just won’t cut it.

But Kluszewski’s OPS is over 100 points higher than Jimmy Rollins, who has essentially lost the job to Art Fletcher.

While Rogan is doing unprecedented things as a 2-way player, JM Ward is not, to the point the team has decided they have better options at DH when he’s on the mound.

THE PITCHING

And now the good news.

#What’s Going Right

The starting pitching is strong, led by Hardie Henderson, who is 10-6 with a 3.05 ERA at the break.

Rogan and JM Ward don’t have great records (5-8 for Rogan, 4-4 for Ward), but they’ve got fantastic peripherals led by Ward’s 1.05 WHIP.

Behind them, Steve Carlton has been solid enough.

Fred Cambria, Ted Kennedy, and Brad Kilby have been fantastic getting the ball to Bob Howry. That trio has 7 saves and 21 holds, and Howry has a 0.82 WHIP and a dozen saves.

#What’s Not Going Right

The back end of the rotation is still a bit rough. Ray Collins is in the 5th spot now, but neither he nor Robin Roberts nor Larry Jackson have really seized the opportunity.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is hope for the future here. I mean, prospects flame out and all that, but there is hope.

Bill Gatewood is the highest ranked prospect, and probably the best arm in the system, but Jack Kralick, Jack Easton, LaTroy Hawkins, and perhaps even Scott Garrelts and Luke Weaver all have some upside.

Bill Dickey is likely to be recalled at the all star break and Harmon Killebrew and Bobby Abreu will probably see time with the Stars this year as well. Behind them, it does thin out a little, but Richie Ashburn, Andrew Payne, and Prince Fielder all have significant value.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The offense to become league average or better, preferably led by some of the prospects stepping forward. And, of course, the pitching to not regress.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• What does the bullpen look like? Fairly well answered, as most teams would welcome the combined performance of Kennedy, Cambria, Kilby, and Howry.
• How does the OF resolve, and most importantly how much of Aaron Judge‘s debut performance was a mirage? The latter first: very little, evidently. This remains a question, but not as anticipated–the Stars never anticipated CF being an open question, but with Willie Davis’ loss of form, it is.
• Can the flashes of talent on the IF shown last year from Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh deliver over a full season? Yoikes. No, no they cannot; in fact, neither is in the WBL and SS continues to be a bit of a mess.

FEATURED SERIES

Philadelphia opens the second half of the season with 3 games at Ottawa.

Projected Starters

Philadelphia’s starter listed first.

Steve Carlton (7-9, 5.62) @ Old Hoss Radbourn (9-6, 6.13)
Charles Rogan (5-8, 4.46) @ Roy Halladay (8-6, 4.92)
Ray Collins (2-4, 5.08) @ Bill Smith (6-2, 3.57)

Game One

Both teams are in an odd spot where their #1 starter is not their best, with the opening game matching Steve Carlton against Old Hoss Radbourn.

The much-maligned Willie Davis led the game off with a solo shot to right, giving the Stars a 1-0 lead. Tim Raines matched him, leading off the bottom of the frame with his 12th homer of the year to tie the game. Rusty Staub took Carlton deep with a runner on in the 2nd, but Carlton induced an inning-ending double play from Roberto Alomar to limit the damage.

After Davis doubled in the 3rd, Aaron Judge went deep to tie the game, then, in the 5th Davis (who has been stung by the criticism, it must be said) homered again.

Larry Walker tied it up with a 2-out double in the bottom of the 5th, but the Stars broke the deadlock immediately, as Judge tripled and Rico Carty chased Radbourn from the game with an RBI double.

Carlton got the first out in the 7th, but his relief, Ted Kennedy, was greeted with a solo shot from Adrián Beltré to once again tie the contest. Kennedy–helped by Art Fletcher gunning down Raines at home and the just-recalled Bill Dickey throwing out Alomar on a steal attempt–got out of the inning without further damage.

George Hendrick hit a 2-run shot in the 8th: 7-5 Stars. But it was never going to be that easy: Gary Carter sent a Brad Kilby pitch over the wall in left with Walker on, tying us up once again.

It ended with a walkoff dinger, of course: Alomar taking Pedro Feliciano deep in the bottom of the 9th.

Davis and Judge had 3 hits for the Stars.

PHI 7 (Feliciano 0-1; Kennedy 6 BSv; Kilby 2 BSv) @ OTT 9 (Ryan 2-2)
HRs: PHI – Davis 2 (8), Judge (27), Hendrick (9); OTT – Raines (12), Staub (15), Carter (32), Alomar (19).
Box Score

Game Two

The Stars gave Hardie Henderson the start in game 2; he would face the Mounties’ Roy Halladay.

Gary Carter hit his 33rd of the year in the bottom of the first, putting the Mounties up, 2-0, and an RBI double from Álex Rodríguez made it 3-0 in the 2nd, and then the miracle of Rick Monday continued: his 21st homer of the year increased the lead to 4-0.

Jimmy Rollins‘ 1st homer of the year made it 4-1.

Henderson was chased from the game in the 5th by a 2-run shot from Roberto Alomar and an RBI double from Rusty Staub. He was relieved by Robin Roberts who gave up an RBI single to Monday before getting out of the inning with Ottawa ahead, 8-1.

There was some more: homers by Ted Kluszewski and Adrian Beltré, some other stuff. But the outcome was never in doubt, as the Mounties rolled, 14-3.

Monday had 4 hits and 4 RBIs.

PHI 3 (Henderson 10-7) @ OTT 14 (Halladay 9-6)
HRs: PHI – Rollins (1), Kluszewski (12); OTT – Carter (33), Monday (21), Alomar (20), Beltré (23).
Box Score

Game Three

Trying to salvage a game, the Stars would send out J.M. Ward to face Ottawa’s Bill Smith. Ward was recently removed from being used as DH when he pitched: we’ll see if being able to focus solely on his mound duties changes anything for Philadelphia.

The game was scoreless through 5, with Smith allowing 3 hits and Ward only 1. Rusty Staub broke the deadlock in the bottom of the 7th, touching Ward for a 2-run homerun.

Aaron Judge hit his 28th in the top of the 9th, ending Smith’s shutout bid, but, after a single by Ted Kluszewski, Ottawa’s closer, Tom Henke, was able to retire Rico Carty on a popout to center.

Ward was once again a hard luck loser, pitching 7 strong innings.

PHI 1 (Ward 4-5) @ OTT 3 (Smith 7-2; Henke 7 Sv)
HRs: PHI – Judge (28); PHI – Staub (16).
Box Score

Not good. Not only were the Stars swept, they were outscored 26-11. Still, for Philadelphia, it’s all about next year, so there will be bruises in the process.

The ABC’s inherit players from a franchise with a long history, but surprisingly little actual success, the Cincinnati Reds.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

This is a pitching-and-defense kind of team, but honestly it feels like they are sort of doing it with mirrors right now.

THE OFFENSE

The ABC’s are fast, but really aren’t a terribly imposing offense. It’s a reasonably standard problem: there is a handful of excellence surrounded by a lot of mediocrity.

Overall, the ABC’s–other than Oscar Charleston and Joe Morgan–just don’t hit very well, with only those two, Bob Bescher and Tommy Helms sporting batting averages over .260.

There is some power, with 6 batters in double-digits for HR, led by Adam Dunn‘s 24, but the offense is just shut down far too often.

#What’s Going Right

Oscar Charleston has blossomed, with the 20 year old OFer slashing 336/386/642 and leading the team in 2B, 3B, RBI, and R.

When healthy, Joe Morgan looks to have an argument to be the best 2B in the WBL, hitting over .300, drawing a ton of walks, and even flashing some power. But Little Joe has only played in roughly half Indianapolis’ games so far this season. So, we’ll see.

Adam Dunn and Joey Votto are eerie clones of each other, and they’re doing very well in terms of drawing walks and hitting for power (Dunn leads the ABC’s with 24 homers; Votto has added 16).

George Foster has hit for impressive power as a rookie, although the rest of his game needs some seasoning.

Barry Larkin, who was essentially awful last year, has slowly extended his claim on the starting SS spot.

Bob Bescher gets on base a lot and is very, very fast–a .359 OBP and 38 steals, with only 7 times being caught.

Luis Padrón has been something slightly above mediocre as a position player, allowing some roster flexibility.

#What’s Not Going Right

The biggest issue is Johnny Bench who, despite 21 dingers, is only slashing 2228/290/510. Now, he did hit 267/371/720 in June, so perhaps he is reverting to his form of last year, but overall it’s been a struggle, with Bench dropping down significantly in the lineup.

The rest of the roster–3B and all the reserves–have been quite poor with Robin Ventura being particularly disappointing to date.

THE PITCHING

The ABC’s are the only team in the WBL committed to a 6-man rotation, and while the top 3 or 4 slots tend to stay somewhat stable, the rest is in somewhat constant flux.

This year, it’s working more often than not, and the bullpen has been solid.

Still, there are causes for concern all over the place, as most everyone’s secondary numbers are a little weak.

#What’s Going Right

Johnny Cueto, Rube Foster, and Luis Padrón look set at the front of the rotation. Padrón has the best record in the league at 11-2, and Cueto and Foster both have sub-4.00 ERA’s. All three have decent peripherals, but Cueto and Padrón especially seem strong enough to carry a staff.

Rob Dibble has 16 saves despite being torched occasionally.

Jack Billingham has been excellent late in games, contributing across the board with a 4-1 record, 22 saves and 6 holds.

Rob Murphy is tied for the WBL lead with 11 holds.

#What’s Not Going Right

Last year’s darlings, Doc White and Willie Mitchell, are a combined 5-11 with ERA’s around 6.00.

The Only Nolan has hit a rough patch, putting what looked like a promising debut season in doubt.

Dick Tidrow has been atrocious, and is most likely not long for the WBL roster.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is roster filler here, but little high end talent. 3B/SS Oliver Marcell is the highest rated prospect, but 19 year old Tom Glavine may have a higher ceiling. On the IF, Donie Bush and Matt Chapman have some promise, but other than that … Bob Ewing? Jim Maloney? Chris Hammond? Yeah, roster filler.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The top-end performers to keep doing their thing while everyone else takes small steps forward. That would be enough to at least keep Indianapolis in contention for the post-season, which would be a successful season.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

• Who starts, and does the team retain its experimentation with a 6-man rotation? The answer to the second question is yes, yes they do and the answer to the first seems fine: Cueto, Padron, and Foster, and then a makeshift group as things unfold.
• How do the uncertainties at SS/3B resolve? Still an issue. Larkin looks to have claimed SS, but 3B remains fairly open.

FEATURED SERIES

July starts with a four game series at Philadelphia, so that’s what we’ll focus on.

Projected Starters

Indianapolis starter listed first.

Luis Padrón (11-2, 4.21) @ Charles Rogan (4-7, 4.68)
Rube Foster (6-4, 3.80) @ J.M. Ward (3-4, 4.11)
Edward Nolan (3-4, 5.32) @ Steve Carlton (7-8, 5.47)
Willie Mitchell (1-5, 5.89) @ Ray Collins (1-4, 5.40)

Game One

Luis Padrón has struggled at the plate, so the ABC’s decided he would just concentrate in his pitching in this one; the Stars had no such concerns, and Bullet Joe Rogan would take the mound and serve as DH.

Through 4 innings, Rogan had allowed only 2 hits, but they were both solo homeruns (1 to Emil Frisk, the other to Joey Votto) while Padrón had kept the Stars hitless. So, 2-0 Indianapolis.

Frisk went deep again in the 5th, and Oscar Charleston drove in a run to extend the lead to 5-0.

Chase Utley broke up the no-hitter in the bottom of the frame, but that was really it: the Stars bullpen held until the 9th, but Padrón was just too good, dominating Philadelphia in a 2-hit shutout. He improved to 12-2 on the year, dropped his ERA below 4.00, and most likely cemented his position as the starting pitcher in the all-star game for the NL.

IND 6 (Padrón 12-2) @ PHI 0 (Rogan 4-8)
HRs: IND – Votto (17), Frisk 2 (3); PHI – none.
Box Score

Game Two

The ABC’s would face John M0ntgomery Ward in the middle game, which is sort of a mixed bag: Ward’s peripheral numbers are great, but his record is only 3-4 and he’s struggled to get his ERA below the magical 4.00 mark. Indianapolis would counter with Rube Foster, whose 3.80 ERA makes an argument for his inclusion in the all-star game.

And then game the first inning: Philadelphia batted around, scored 6 runs, and Foster’s ERA ballooned to 4.35. He settled down after that and–surprisingly–made it through 5 innings, bringing his ERA back down to 4.17. Still.

Ward was dealing, making much of the rest of the game moot. He was finally chased by a moonshot from Joe Morgan, which closed the score to 8-2. He was relieved by Brad Kilby, who promptly gave up a homerun to Emil Frisk.

But the game was over, ending up 9-3 behind Ward’s fine outing. Willie Davis and Chase Utley had 3 hits each for the Stars.

IND 3 (Foster 6-5) @ PHI 9 (Ward 4-4)
HRs: IND – Morgan (15), Frisk (4); PHI – none.
Box Score

Game Three

With the series tied at 1 each, game 3 would see The Only Nolan take the mound for Indianapolis, opposed by Philadelphia’s Steve Carlton.

The ABC’s took the early lead on a 2-run shot by Joey Votto in the top of the first, but RBI singles from Butch Wynegar and Jimmy Rollins tied it up in the bottom of the 2nd. Philadelphia then took the lead on Aaron Judge‘s 25th homer of the year in the following inning, making it 3-2 in favor of the Stars.

Indianapolis rebounded on George Foster‘s 15 homer of the year, a 2-run shot making it 4-3.

Nolan couldn’t get an out in the 6th, allowing a double to Rico Carty and a walk to to Ted Kluszewski before being replaced by Willie Mitchell. Mitchell got 2 outs, but then surrendered a game-tying single to Rollins.

Carlton lasted a little longer, but departed in the top of the 8th after surrendering a single to Luis Padrón and hitting Joe Morgan with a pitch. After a walk, Oscar Charleston and Joey Votto singled and eventually Ed Charles doubled, making the score 10-4 in favor of the ABC’s.

That’s how it would end, with Votto finishing the game with 4 RBI’s as Indianapolis took a 2-1 lead in the series.

IND 10 (Mitchell 2-5, 1 BSv) @ PHI 4 (Carlton 7-9)
HRs: IND – Votto (18), Foster (15); PHI – Judge (25).
Box Score

Game Four

The series would end with Indianapolis’ Doc White taking on Ray Collins.

George Foster opened the scoring in the 2nd with a solo shot, but Joe Rogan put Philadelphia on top an inning later, launching his 15th of the year with 2 runners on base. White would give up 2 more in the 4th on RBI hits from Chase Utley and Sherry Magee. Singles to open up the 6th by Ted Kluszewski and Mike Scioscia finally chased White and brought Mike LaCoss in for his WBL debut.

Collins was finally touched for another run in the 7th, but Fred Cambria was able to work out of a jam, preserving the Stars’ 5-2 lead.

Joey Votto launched his 19th of the year in the top of the 9th off Stars’ closer Bob Howry to close it to 5-4, but that was all the ABC’s could muster.

Joe Morgan had 3 hits for Indianapolis, but it wasn’t enough, and the series ends in an even split.

IND 4 (White 4-7) @ PHI 5 (Collins 2-4; Howry 12 Sv; Cambria 1 H; Kennedy 9 H)
HRs: IND – Foster (16), Votto (19); PHI – Rogan (15).
Box Score

It’s not bad, but if the ABC’s are going to solidify their position, they need to beat up on the weaker teams, like the Stars. But 3 homeruns for Votto and 2 for Frisk and Foster are decent signs, for sure.

Roy White went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as the Royal Giants gave up a late lead and lost in 12 innings, 6-5, to the Gothams.

Frank Knauss became the league’s first 6 game winner with a 2 hit shutout, striking out 10 en route to a 2-0 victory over Ottawa. Solo homeruns from Duke Snider and Pedro Guerrero were all Knauss needed to move to 6-1 on the year.

#Homestead Grays

Daniel Hudson and Carlos Zambrano are both struggling mightily, but both hold their roster spots for now. It’s assumed that one will go down when Corey Kluber comes back from injury; it’s likely the other will follow shortly thereafter unless something turns around.

Francisco Liriano tossed a 2-hit shutout, leading the Grays to a 5-0 win over Kansas City. Liriano walked 4 and whiffed 8, and was helped along with homeruns from Mike Epstein and Willie Stargell.

Owen Wilson, struggling to regain his from from last season, will miss about a month and a half with a separated shoulder. OF Goose Goslin was recalled from AAA to take Wilson’s role as lefty OF off the bench.

Doug Drabek–perhaps the Grays’ best hurler in the early going–hit the DL with a sore wrist. Drabek should only miss a couple starts, but still. Brickyard Kennedy was recalled from AAA. Kennedy pitched well for Brooklyn last season in limited opportunities, but at 35, was released by the Royal Giants in February.

#New York Gothams

Brandon Crawford hit the shortest homerun of the day, but it was enough to give the Gothams a 6-5 walkoff victory in 12 innings over Brooklyn. In great news for the Gothams, Brian Wilson saw his first action of the year, giving up 1 hit and striking out 3 in 1.2 innings. The win went to Mike Norris, who improved to 2-0 with 2+ perfect innings.

Willie Mays went deep twice and Carl Furillo might have staved off his release with his first homerun of the year as the Gothams beat the House of David, 7-5.

Benny Kauff went deep twice, giving him 10 on the year, as the Gothams beat the House of David, 7-3.

#Ottawa Mounties

It was assumed that Ryan Dempster would lose his role as closer when Tom Henke returned. The surprise came when the Mounties moved Dempster to AAA, along with Dupee Shaw, as both Henke and Johnny Podgajny were recalled from their rehab assignments.

#Philadelphia Stars

Tim Belcher was sent to AAA with John Burkett being recalled as the Stars try to address their bullpen.

Joe Rogan tossed a complete game, 2-hit shutout as the Stars beat Birmingham, 7-0. He also drove in 2 while Art Fletcher and Willie Davis had 3 hits each, with Fletcher driving in 4.

Rogan was again the star, delivering a walkoff 2 run single to lead the Stars, who scored 6 runs over the final 3 innings, to a 7-6 victory over Birmingham. Ted Kluszewski went deep twice in the game and Burkett was excellent in his debut, delivering 2+ innings of 1 hit relief with the victory going to Ted Kennedy, now 2-1 on the year.

Scott Rolen went deep twice, but the Stars couldn’t hold a lead, falling to Homestead, 7-6.

The only truly firm jobs are 3B (Scott Rolen) and CF (Willie Davis). While a handful of others are all but assured a roster spot, who starts where is very much up in the air.

In addition to Rogan, while many feel 2nd round pick Dave Stieb needs a year at AAA, a great spring could catapult him onto the roster.

First Cuts

Robin Roberts has been the worst pitcher in camp, but the Stars’ brass still see a future for the 33 year old, and will give him a few more innings to turn it around. No such reprieve for LaTroy Hawkins, Jack Easton, Ed Hawk, Luke Weaver, Chris Archer, or Fritz Coumbe as all six of them were returned to the minor leagues.

Cs John Clapp and Butch Wynegar were also sent down, which is probably good news for Bullet Joe Rogan, who becomes the de facto 4th backstop in camp. At 1B, Prince Fielder and Dan Pasqua were sent to the minors, with Don Hurst and Cecil Cooper moving up the depth chart while Terry Pendleton was moved out at 3B.

In the middle infield, César Hernández‘ inability to hit outweighed his glove, but otherwise it’s still pretty crowded. Chase Utley and Mickey Morandini have hit very well, while both late season darling Juan Samuel and José Ramírez have struggled. SS is even worse as all three contenders: Jimmy Rollins, Roger Peckinpaugh, and dark horse Mike Bordick have struggled at the plate.

Other than Buck Freeman, the OFers who were supposed to hit–Aaron Judge, George Hendrick, Willie Davis, Bobby Abreu, and Sherry Magee–have hit, with everyone else struggling to make an impact. This has made some choices easy, as Ed Kirkpatrick, Garry Maddox, Odúbel Herrera, John Titus, and highly-touted Richie Ashburn all were sent to the minors.

Second Cuts

Robin Roberts, Brad Kilby, and Fred Cambria were sent to the minors. Roberts was a surprise, but he seems incapable of harnessing his talent.

Don Hurst, Pinky May, and Juan Samuel were sent down as well, with the Stars finally admitting that Samuel’s performance last September was quite the mirage.

Andrew Payne was recalled to give some additional depth at CF.

Third Cuts

P Jack Kralick heads to AAA, along with Cecil Cooper, Fred Luderus, and Al Smith.

With Roger Peckinpaugh the presumptive starter at SS, the Stars can only carry 1 of Mike Bordick and Jimmy Rollins. José Ramírez has lost all offensive ability evidently, but his performance last year keeps him in camp for another week.

Final Cuts

Andrew Payne was sent down after a brief sting in major league camp.

The Stars are really struggling with what to do on their roster–too many players are performing too similarly this Spring. They took a copout move, sending reliever Scott Garrelts down–who deserved it based on his performance–which leaves them with only 14 arms in camp.

The scouts still love Bill Dickey, but he just hasn’t shown anything in camp. With Rogan able to fill in behind the platooning Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia, Dickey heads to AAA in search of at bats and consistency.

With Kent Peterson‘s injury, Brad Kilby was recalled to big league camp. Mike Bordick was sent down, as the Stars continue to waffle on what to do with José Ramírez and Mickey Morandini. Ramírez hit with some power last year, but can barely make contact this Spring, while Morandini has been decent. It is likely that Ramírez’ ability to play 3B sees him win the roster spot.

Kent Peterson was placed on the DL and Roger Peckinpaugh, who was stellar in a late season cameo but horrific this Spring, was sent to AAA to see if he could work things out.

Wayne Gomes and Brad Kilby were moved to the minors, which were pretty easy choices.

From there it got rough. Buck Freeman was a regular for the Stars last season, but a lackluster Spring combined with quite a crowd at 1B and RF, Freeman finds himself heading to AAA. Facing a similar choice, José Ramírez was retained over Mickey Morandini, largely because he can backup multiple positions. This also means that Chase Utley will once again start the season as the Stars’ 2B. Finally, neither Bobby Abreu nor Aaron Judge did anything this Spring, but Judge’s fantastic debut last season kept him on the roster while Abreu will head to AAA.

What Went Right

Not a helluva lot.

CF Willie Davis, 1B Ted Kluszewski, OF George Hendrick, and 3B Scott Rolen were all solid, with Hendrick pushing into a consistent starting role by mid-season. Davis and Rolen were the only players with decent WAR (3.0 for Davis, 2.9 for Rolen). Only Kluszewski (25) and Buck Freeman (21) had more than 20 homeruns, and Klu led the team in RBI’s with 63 and Freeman in R with 71: scoring runs was just a struggle for the Stars all season long.

Three players made strong impressions late in the season led by a fair distance by OF Aaron Judge who managed a .900 OPS in 130 PA. IFs Juan Samuel and Roger Peckinpaugh impressed as well.

Rico Carty started strong, leading the lead in doubles the first few months of the season, but collapsed towards the end–that, combined with his age, puts Carty’s starting position (but not his roster spot) in question.

Ray Collins and Steve Carlton were decent enough in the rotation and the only pitchers with over 2 WAR (Collins 2.9, Carlton 2.3). They were the only pitchers with 30 starts and, even more depressingly, the only pitchers with more than 10 innings and ERA’s under 5.00.

ALL STAR SELECTIONS
P Ron Reed; 3B Scott Rolen

What Went Wrong

Everything else? The middle infield was pretty horrible all year, and nobody really could break out of thoroughly mediocre performances.

Carty ended weak, falling off a cliff on the final months of the season.

And the pitching was thoroughly horrid, from only Robin Roberts having a .500 record (5-5) among the starters to closer Bob Howry having 25 saves, but also getting rocked with an ERA over 6. Injuries didn’t help: Jaret Wright (probably the 3rd most effective starter), Roberts, and Pete Alexander (who was clearly overmatched by the WBL level at age 21, but also has a ton of promise) all missed significant time on the mound.

Trade Evaluations

March

3B Mike Schmidt, SP Cole Hamels to New York Black Yankees for C Bill Dickey, OF Aaron Judge, 1B Prince Fielder

Not bad. Moving Schmidt opened up room for Rolen and Judge looks like the real deal. Dickey was horrible, but at 22 is still a great prospect. Certainly, the loss of Hamels hurt, but he didn’t last with New York, being shipped to Miami in a separate deal.

June

RP Ron Reed to Cleveland for OF Andrew Payne, P Hardie Henderson, OF Darrell Miller, OF Gibby Brack

Reed was an all star for Philadelphia, but fell apart for the Spiders. Henderson looks good, and both Payne and Brack may see WBL time at some point.

July

OF Gavvy Cravath & 2nd Round Pick to Portland for 1B/3B Harmon Killebrew & 1st Round Pick {Dave Stieb}

P Rheal Cormier & 4th Round Pick to New York Black Yankees for P LaTroy Hawkins, P Fritz Coumbe, IF Mike Bordick & 3rd Round Pick {Bill Gatewood}

The Cravath deal was excellent: he was leaving after the season, and Killebrew is a great prospect and the pick turned into one of the better pitching prospects in the draft in Stieb. The other one is a little meh: Coumbe made the WBL by the end of the season, but was unimpressive, although Hawkins has a very live arm.

Looking Forward

SP

Carlton, JM Ward, and Alexander should eventually be a good top 3. They need more depth, both at WBL and throughout the organization.

RP

Howry’s job is in danger, but there are no obvious options. Brad Kilby was good at AAA and Scott Garrelts shows some promise.

C

The job is, once again, Dickey’s to lose, but perhaps another year in the minors is in store for him. If so, this is likely Mike Scoscia and Sherm Lollar splitting time once again.

1B

This is Klu’s until age catches up with him. Cecil Cooper dominated at AAA, and should see some time, especially if Carty’s decline continues.

2B

The Stars would love to see Chase Utley own this, but he’s struggled mightily so far. Juan Samuel‘s end of season heroics have earned him a close look in spring training.

3B

Rolen has this locked down, but the team will need to do something once Killebrew is ready, although Killer is probably more suited to 1B/DH in any case.

SS

Peckinpaugh will get a chance here, but again it’s a spot where the Stars need some more talent, especially if Jimmy Rollins doesn’t show more.

LF

Sherry Magee looks solid here.

CF

This may be the most interesting choice in the organization. Davis was their best player, and 21 year old Richie Ashburn was probably their best prospect. Both are excellent defensively, so the odds are a trade is the most likely solution.

RF

Judge seems to have this locked down, but Bobby Abreu will see some time here as well.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

Philadelphia led off the draft by selecting SP Bullet Joe Rogan, probably the single most WBL-ready prospect available. Rogan should step into the rotation right away. Their 2nd pick in the 1st round was harder, coming down to the future possibilities of IF Trea Turner and more help on the mound. They went with the latter, opting for young RHP Dave Stieb. They continued stockpiling arms, picking up teenager Bruce Hurst and 21 year old Bill Gatewood in the 3rd round.

With Gatewood, the Stars have made four selections, using all four of their franchise exemptions, meaning the rest of their picks for this draft will be players with some historical connection to their franchise.

Rounds 5-8

The Stars will be focusing on adding arms, although IF depth would be fine as well. Since they are out of exceptions, these will all be franchise selections, limiting some of the options. Their picks included OF Milt Thompson (5th), P Odúbel Herrera (6th), OF Rhys Hoskins (7th), and IF Nux James (8th).

Rounds 9-12

At the tail end of the draft, the Stars picked up a reserve C (Todd Pratt), P Chris Archer; P Mélido Pérez; and P Jim McElroy.