There is a ton of offensive talent here, but it falls off drastically, and suffers from a lot of positional overlap. Add in downright poor pitching, and you have the worst team in the Bill James Division.
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It’s not clear where Memphis goes, but it certainly looks like trading some of their positional depth for some pitching should be on the table.
THE OFFENSE
It’s a top heavy team, with some true standout talent.
#What’s Going Right
Ted Williams is an elite talent, and while his 298/412/619 slash line doesn’t move him into the absolute top tier, at 22 there is quite some room for improvement.
Manny Ramírez has stepped up dramatically from last year, leading the team with 42 HRs and 2nd behind Williams in RBI. Ramírez’ OPS has hovered around 1.000 all season, powered by a SLG in the mid .600’s.
David Ortiz has essentially displaced Bill White at 1B, slashing 286/370/680 in just over 300 PAs.
Gabby Hartnett is an excellent offensive C, posting an OPS in the mid 800’s with 37 HRs and his backup, Billy Bryan, has been even better offensively, with 14 HRs in 140 PA’s.
For a 20 year old, Dobie Moore‘s debut has to be considered a success, slashing 291/352/427 while playing across the IF.
#What’s Not Going Right
OF Mookie Betts and 3B Wade Boggs have been fine, but the Red Sox need more if they are going to compete.
Nobody getting a ton of playing time has really been awful offensively, although only Iván De Jesús‘ defensive flexibility has kept him in the league.
The positional distribution remains unsolved: Ortiz, White, and Travis Shaw all seem to be reasonable WBL alternatives at 1B, and the leading young talent (Hack Wilson and Lefty O’Doul) play the same positions as Reggie Smith, Betts, Ramírez, and Williams.
THE PITCHING
When your best pitcher is a middling middle reliever (Tommy de la Cruz, whose 6.20 ERA belies some very good supporting numbers), you’re in trouble.
#What’s Going Right
That is a little unfair to Stubby Overmire, who leads the team with 11 wins and looks like an excellent #2 or #3 rotation starter being asked to be a #1.
Andrew Miller‘s been solid out of the bullpen with a 7-8 record, 3 saves, and 11 holds while leading the WBL in appearances.
#What’s Not Going Right
Everything else.
David Bush, Len Barker, and Jon Lester have all failed to impress, with Bush (8-8, 6.82) being the best of a bad lot.
Some of the other hurlers given opportunities, especially Eddie Cicotte and Nixey Callahan, have been unbelievably bad.
THE FARM SYSTEM
TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM
There is some help, as Memphis has a middle-of-the-road farm system, with some strong talent that is blocked at the WBL level (all the more trade fodder for some pitching).
OFs Dwight Evans, Hack Wilson, Willie Crawford, Roy Thomas, Lefty O’Doul, and Carl Yastrzemski all look to have high ceilings. On the IF, it’s a bit more sparse, with Candy Jim Taylor and Joe Cunningham leading the way.
There is also some potential on the mound. Sadie McMahon remains well regarded despite his struggles, and he, Jim Kaat, Josh Beckett, and Nathan Eovaldi should all be given some long looks in the Spring.
WHAT’S NEEDED
A re-distribution of the talent, using some of the excess to bring some arms to town.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
- Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? Remains totally unanswered.
- Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens? Moore looks to be the real thing, and Stephens was pretty bad, eventually moving on to Brooklyn (where, it must be said, he has flourished) for a 4th round pick.
- Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up. Hartnett is doing well, and the last thing the Red Sox need is more OF talent.
FEATURED SERIES
Since the Cuban Giants still have an outside shot at the playoffs, we’ll use the opportunity to focus on the Red Sox’s visit to Miami for a 4 game set at the start of the week.
Projected Starters
Memphis starter listed first, although I would expect at least a few of these to change.
David Bush (8-8, 6.82) @ Cole Hamels (11-10, 5.88)
Stubby Overmire (11-9, 4.81) @ Jim Whitney (8-6, 3.90)
Len Barker (10-12, 5.07) @ Phenomenal Smith (2-0, 1.93)
TBA @ Hugh McQuillan (4-3, 4.82)
Just because it will make the end of the year far more interesting, let’s go with a 3-1 series win for Miami.
Game One
The Red Sox used 2 homeruns from Dustin Pedroia and just enough from their bullpen to take game 1, 8-6.
Memphis took the lead on a 2 run homer from Gabby Hartnett, but 2 wild pitches from David Bush (one in the 2nd, one in the 3rd) tied the game at 2.
Pedroia’s first homer, in the top of the 5th, put Memphis back on top. The Red Sox hit 3 out of the park in the 7th, getting homers from David Ortiz, Pedroia again, and Manny Ramírez. That gave the Red Sox an 8-2 lead, which should have been enough …
Except, Sadie McMahon, in relief of Bush, imploded, giving up 4 runs before being relieved by Andrew Miller. Miller, however, was effective, earning his 12th hold of the year, and Tommy de la Cruz closed the door for his 5th save as Memphis played spoiler to Miami’s Wild Card chase.
MEM 8 (Taylor 11-10) @ MCG 6 (Mathewson 7-15)
HRs: MEM – Hartnett (38), Pedroia 2 (4), Ortiz (32), Ramírez (43); MCG – Oliver (8).
Box Score
Game Two
Dean Chance got the start for Memphis in game 2 and was actually quite good. Unfortunately for Memphis, Miami’s Jim Whitney was better, allowing 3 hits and 1 run over 7 innings–a solo shot from Ted Williams in the top of the 1st–as the Cuban Giants edged the Red Sox, 6-1.
Miami got longballs from Julio Rodríguez, Jim Thome, and Joe Adcock in the victory.
MEM 1 (Chance 0-1) @ MCG 6 (Whitney 4-4, George 1 H)
HRs: MEM- Williams (40); MCG – J. Rodríguez (37), Thome (54), Adcock (2).
Box Score
Game Three
Bucky Walters would get the start for Memphis, with Miami countering with Phenomenal Smith, whose return from injury has come at just the right time for the Cuban Giants.
Memphis jumped on Smith in the top of the 1st with Bill White–whose playing time has declined regularly over the season–hitting a 3 run homerun. Miami tied the game in the 3rd with a 3 run homerun from Julio Rodríguez.
The Red Sox took the lead on a sacrifice fly from Wade Boggs in the top of the 5th, but 4 consecutive hits–doubles from Alejandro Oms, Rodríguez and Yasiel Puig wrapped around a single from José Canseco–chased Walters and gave the Cuban Giants a 6-4 advantage.
The Red Sox would score again, but not enough as Miami edged it, 7-6. Rodríguez continued his hot streak with 3 hits and 4 RBI’s, and the revamped Miami bullpen closed it out, this time with Ricky Nolasco getting the hold and Jonathan Papelbon his 8th save since coming over to the Cuban Giants.
MEM 6 (Walters 0-3) @ MCG 7 (Smith 3-0, Papelbon 8 Sv, Looper 10 H, Nolasco 3 H)
HRs: MEM – White (23); MCG – Rodríguez (38).
Box Score
Game 4
So this one matters as a series win would impact the post-season picture. Memphis would trot out their best starter, last year’s ERA champ, Stubby Overmire while Miami would counter with the impressive, but essentially untried, Hugh McQuillan.
Or, the once impressive, as the Red Sox jumped on him for 6 runs in 5 innings, and then pounded his relief, Don Wilson, for 4 more in an 11-3 rout.
The offensive onslaught was led by Ted Williams‘s 3 hits, but almost everyone got involved, with Williams, Lefty O’Doul, Wade Boggs, Mookie Betts, and Travis Shaw each going deep. Pair that with Overmire’s solid 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs and–most surprisingly for Red Sox fans–2 scoreless innings in relief from Nixey Callahan–and you have an easy victory for Memphis and a vital defeat for Miami.
MEM 11 (Overmire 12-9) – MCG 3 (McQuillan 4-4)
HRs: MEM – Williams (41), O’Doul (2), Boggs (10), Betts (25), Shaw (18); MCG: Canseco (65).
Box Score
The series split is a solid result for Memphis as it continues to give some of its young players time; a far more disappointing result for Miami, who look to fall just short of the postseason.
