Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: A. Rube Foster Page 1 of 2

Year II Season Preview: Kansas City Monarchs

Expectations

This team was so lost last season, that anything could feel like progress. But a .500 finish would be a start.

Best Case

Bob Gibson explodes onto the scene and additional quality arms are found somewhere while the offense continues to build around the core of Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, Willie McGee, and Boog Powell.

Worst Case

This turns into the worst pitching staff in the league and the offense just can’t compensate enough, especially if Pujols doesn’t make a step forward.

Key Questions

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen?
  • 3B looks unsettled.
  • How does the competition between Ducky Medwick and Steve Evans pan out?

Trade Bait

Not enough talent to really be active.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CSimmonsRuel
1BPowellMurphy
2BCanóFrisch
3BPujols
SSSmith
LF/
RF
MusialBrock
Evans
Medwick
Rettenmund
CFMcGee
SPHamlinCastilloRijo
Wood
Gibson
Morris
EndKimbrelPfefferDiPino
RPA.R. Foster
Guardado
Hermanson
Shawkey
New Addition | Injured

It’s all pretty much apparent there: the offense, especially Albert Pujols, needs to shift left and the need for something positive to happen on the mound for the Monarchs to take a step forward. Gibson and A. Rube Foster becoming at least solid would be a huge boon.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerU Dale Murphy1B Andre Thornton
Batting EyeC Muddy RuelOF Fielder Jones
ContactOF Stan MusialIF Dave Cash
Running SpeedOF Lou Brock
CF Willie McGee
OF Cool Papa Bell
OF Jarrod Dyson
U Rex Hudler
CF Omar Moreno
Base StealingOF Lou BrockOF Jarrod Dyson
IF DefenseIF Albert PujolsIF Sam Mongin
OF DefenseOF Stan MusialOF Fielder Jones
StuffP Smokey Joe WoodP Larry French
ControlSP Luke HamlinP Jimmy Key
VelocityRP Craig KimbrelP Giovanny Gallegos
P Darren O’Day
P Trevor Rosenthal

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (1)21OFWade Johnston
2 (6)23PA. Rube Foster
3 (7)20OFCool Papa Bell
4 (11)25PJock Menefee
5 (35)18IFCarlos Baerga
6 (41)21PMatt Morris
7 (83)22IFSam Mongin
8 (97)22IFDink Mothel
9 (100)25OFMerv Rettenmund
10 (116)18CJohnny Bassler
Others: OFs Heliodoro Hidalgo, Earl Averill; IFs Dave Cash, Kolten Wong; Ps Bill Singer, Larry French.

Clearly one of the deeper systems in the league, but one that has some complications: Bell and Johnston are blocked, Morris is injured, and only Foster will start the season with the Monarchs. But the scouts are drooling over all these guys, and 9 in the top 100 is pretty incredible–and that doesn’t even include top draft pick Hilton Smith.

MostLeast
AgeIF Jim Davenport, 37C Johnny Bassler, 18
IF Carlos Baerga, 18
HeightP Adam Russell, 6’8″OF Heliodoro Hidalgo, 5’6″
OPSOF Stan Musial, .972 (WBL)C Salvador Pérez, .572 (WBL)
HROF Merv Rettenmund, 28 (WBL/AAA)C Muddy Ruel, 0 (—)
SBOF Lou Brock, 49 (WBL)Many with 0
WAROF Merv Rettenmund, 5.4 (WBL/AAA)IF Ivy Olson, -1.4 (—)
WSheriff Blake, 16 (—)AJ Schugel, 1 (—)
Félix Hernández, 1 (WBL/AAA/AA)
SVAdam Russell, 25 (WBL/AAA)
ERASheriff Blake, 2.27 (—)Dustin Hermanson, 15.35 (—)
WARSheriff Blake, 5.2 (—)AJ Schugel, -3.9 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

Season Review: Chicago American Giants

88 - 66, .571 pct.
3rd in Cum Posey Division, 3 games behind.
Lost to Portland in Wild Card Round

Overall

An amazing offense, a solid pitching staff. But ultimately not enough: which means a solid pitching staff is insufficient for a team with championship aspirations.

The offense was a joy, though: Eddie Collins is a virtually perfect baseball specimen, and Frank Thomas, Joe Jackson, and Dick Allen are spectacular hitters.

What Went Right

All the offense all the time.

The top four batters each had OPS’ over .900 and between the four of them hit 102 homeruns, drove in 386 runs and scored 394. They even stole 100 bases, but really that was entirely Collins (61) and Jackson (34). Collins is the oldest at 27 with the other three 24 or under, so the future is bright here.

And it’s not like the offense drops much behind them: Duffy Lewis had a SLG over .500, Mike Fiore had an OBP over .400, Carlton Fisk‘s OPS near .800 makes him a pretty elite hitter for a catcher, and Cristóbal Torriente had a solid year overall and a great one considering he’s still a teenager.

On the mound, AJ Minter was among the best closers in the league and David Price was spectacular after being brought over from Indianapolis. Ben Sheets and Tricky Nichols were good, perhaps a little better than good and Ed Walsh showed flashes of excellence.

Hoyt Wilhelm and Ken Sanders were good out of the pen.

Note how tepid the praise is getting …

ALL STARS
3B Dick Allen; 2B Eddie Collins; OF Joe Jackson; OF Duffy Lewis; RP AJ Minter; P Tricky Nichols; 1B Frank Thomas

What Went Wrong

The American Giants brought in Freddy Parent at the all star break to solidify the SS position. The revolving door there stopped, but Parent wasn’t very good–certainly not as good as he was in the first half of the season for Ottawa.

Five players (Magglio Ordoñez, Jack Doyle, José Abreu, Luke Appling, and most of all Damian Jackson) were given 100+ PAs to lay claim to jobs, and they each failed somewhat spectacularly.

But really the focus here has to be on the mound. Chicago had its share of hurlers who were given a chance and weren’t up to it–every team does. But they had a much larger group of pitchers who were just far too mediocre for a championship team. This includes Dick Rudolph, who was no worse than he was for Birmingham but also no better; Akinori Otsuka, Mark Buehrle, Herb Pennock … the list goes on. Special mention has to be made of Don Newcombe, whose raw numbers are good until you encounter his home run rate. Not giving up a lot of hits doesn’t mean a lot if the ones you give up continually leave the yard.

Transactions

March

None

June

OF Melky Cabrera, P A. Rube Foster, 1B Adrián González & 2nd Round Pick to Birmingham for P Hoyt Wilhelm & P Dick Rudolph

Regret may set in, especially around Foster, but the move made sense at the time, and Wilhelm is almost a unique reliever, which makes up for a little bit of the lost value.

OF Minnie Miñoso to Miami for P Don Newcombe, P Clay Condrey & 4th Round Pick {José Quintana}

If Necombe turns it around, maybe this was worth it. Maybe.

3B Sibby Sisti; OF Bob Watson; 2B Rickie Weeks to Ottawa for SS Freddy Parent

Another one that seemed quite reasonable at the time, but Watson especially may be missed (at the same time, he was pretty completely blocked positionally at Chicago).

July

3B Robin Ventura, P Tyler Clippard, 4th Round Pick & 5th Round Pick to Indianapolis for P David Price & 2B Jorge Orta

Ventura was a bust in Chicago, and especially in light of Price’s stellar performance, this feels fine.

Looking Forward

SP

This is a need. For now, the American Giants are fine, but the long term trio of Ed Walsh, Mark Buehrle, and Harry Buckner is solid, but not spectacular.

RP

Minter and Wilhelm are good and there is some talent behind them, notably Scott Radinksy (despite his struggles this season) and Hector Neris.

C

Carlton Fisk is expected to be here for quite some time.

1B

Frank Thomas. Simply, Frank Thomas.

2B

Eddie Collins. Simply, Eddie Collins.

3B

Dick Allen. Simply, Dick Allen.

SS

This is likely an issue–and soon if Freddy Parent doesn’t turn it around. Luke Appling and Tim Anderson are waiting in the wings if that comes to pass.

LF

Duffy Lewis was surprisingly effective, and has the claim on the position for a while.

CF

The American Giants were as surprised as anyone that Mike Fiore led the league in walks.

RF

Joe Jackson. Simply, Joe Jackson.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The American Giants were thrilled that Jacob DeGrom was still on the board with the 18th pick. Whether he shows up in Chicago next year or the year after, he should arrive very soon to help out their rotation.

In the third round, they picked up CF Lenny Dykstra in a “best player available” move and in the 4th, SP José Quintana, because you can never have too much young pitching and OF/1B Walter “Steel Arm” Davis, because you can never have too many cool nicknames.

Rounds 5-8

With no picks in the 5th or 6th rounds, Chicago’s franchise exceptions dropped significantly in value. They need a few 1B, some help at 3B, arms, and some OF depth. Still, they were able to grab Freddy Sánchez in round 7 and Cass Michaels in round 8, each of which have a shot at WBL time at some point (Michaels as soon as this season as a utility IF).

Rounds 9-12

P Josh Hader (final exemption); P Tom Williams; P Vern Kennedy; OF Craig Gentry.

4th round pick José Quintana and and 9th round selection Josh Hader both refused to come to terms for Chicago, who will receive compensation in next year’s draft for Quintana.

Season Review: Birmingham Black Barons

84 - 71, .541 pct.
2nd in Marvin Miller Division, 1 game behind.
Lost in Wild Card Round to Detroit

Overall

The media darling of the year: from a dozen games below .500 and clearly selling top end talent to a one game playoff with Portland to determine the division title. Birmingham navigated the trade periods with a skill unmatched in the league, adding and removing talent in a way that seemed to always hit the right balance, leaving the team both better and better positioned for the future.

Still, unless some serious issues with the offense are resolved, it’s not clear how far the superlative pitching can actually carry them next season.

What Went Right

Honestly, not a lot in terms of offense. Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron showed the potential to be stars, but at the end of the day, had fairly pedestrian seasons, especially for their positions. Bob Nieman was a pleasant surprise, and Cupid Childs and Jim Pagliaroni both came in late in the season (Childs from the minors, Paglioaroni via trade) and did well at 2B and C respectively.

The Black Barons seemed to survive on always having someone who was hot enough to carry them: 3B Pie Traynor started off mashing the ball before fading dramatically at the end of the season; both Herman Long and Curtis Granderson took their turns, and Adrián González, whose overall numbers look pretty anemic, was actually quite good for Birmingham after a horrid start to the season with Chicago.

Most of what went right for Birmingham happened on the mound, where Alejandro Peña and mid-season acquisition Andy Pettitte were magnificent, combining with Scott Baker, Vic Willis, and Greg Maddux to form a very impressive rotation, rivalling Baltimore’s in quality top to bottom.

After being named the closer, Juan Rincón did an excellent job, and Harley Young, Steve Bedrosian, and Bruce Chen were solid getting to Rincón.

But you really can’t say enough about Peña and Pettitte, who accounted for nearly 400 quality innings over the course of the season.

Finally, see the Transactions section: somehow Birmingham got rid of their two all-stars as well as some other top end talent, and got better.

ALL STARS
2B Tom Herr; SP Tim Hudson

What Went Wrong

In summary: nobody was great, and few were good.

Lots of players were given plenty of opportunity: Traynor, Al Schweitzer, Troy Tulowitzki, Omar Infante, and Ginger Beaumont all had at least 30 games to show their stuff, and none did anything of note, leaving the MI and one OF position up in the air for far too long.

Hmmm … not much went wrong on the mound. Carlos Diaz only lasted 14 games as closer and Warren Spahn did quite poorly in about 60 innings, indicating that for all his talent, another year in the minors may be needed.

Transactions

March

None

June

P Tim Hudson to San Francisco for P Rube Melton, OF Derrick May & 3rd Round Pick {Gary Matthews}

Given Hudson’s immediate implosion, seems fine, although given Birmingham’s resurgence, perhaps he would have been “the difference.”

P Hoyt Wilhelm & P Dick Rudolph to Chicago for OF Melky Cabrera, P A. Rube Foster, 1B Adrián González & 2nd Round Pick {Trea Turner}

Seems like a win long term for sure, and even this year, González was key for the Black Sox.

2B Tom Herr to New York Black Yankees for IF Reddy Mack, OF Bill Buckner, P Heathcliff Slocumb, OF Charlie Keller, 1B Moose Skowron & 10th Round Pick

It’s a lot of bodies for sure, but it’s also not clear any of them have a better year than Herr did, and usually the team that gets the best player wins the trade. So, unknown.

IF Frank Isbell to Brooklyn for OF Curt Flood, IF Manny Trillo & 6th Round Pick {Steve Avery}

All depends on how Flood develops, but seems fine, especially with the González deal earlier.

July

SS Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor to Memphis for C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick {Adam Kennedy}

Pagliaroni was great for Birmingham; even with that, Taylor may end up being a star, so they may have overpaid here.

C Dale Murphy, P A. Rube Foster, 4th Round Pick & 2nd Round Pick to Kansas City for P Andy Pettitte

It would be a shock of Birmingham didn’t regret this in a few years. It was still a good trade, as without Pettitte, they never make the postseason.

Looking Forward

SP

Pitching should continue to be the hallmark of this club. Even with Peña and Pettitte aging out at some point, a future rotation of Greg Maddux, Vic Willis, Sam Streeter, Jim Whitney, and Warren Spahn looks quite impressive.

RP

Juan Rincón is the presumed closer, and even if both Bruce Chen and Harley Young prove to be short-term solutions, both Steve Bedrosian and minor leaguer Rick Camp look capable of anchoring a deep bullpen into the future.

C

Right now this is Jim Pagliaroni and Gene Tenace, but it’s an area of long term need.

1B

There is a transition here from Frank McCormick to Adrián González to the potential of Nate Colbert. None of those project as stars, so an upgrade could be in order.

2B

Cupid Childs filled in well for Tom Herr, but there really isn’t a long term solution here.

3B

The question is if Eddie Mathews is solid, or if he develops into a star, but this is Mathews’ position.

SS

Herman Long was impressive, but hit a very deep slump at the end of the season. For now, he will continue with Troy Tulowitzki as his backup.

LF

This is all very patchwork: Bob Nieman for now with some constant mixture of Joe Rudi, Billy Southworth, and perhaps eventually, Alfonso Soriano.

CF

Curtis Granderson is good enough for now, but eventually they will have to figure out what to do with him and Curt Flood.

RF

See the comment about Mathews, but there is more optimism that Hank Aaron becomes a star.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

With 6 selections in the first four rounds, Birmingham hopes to restock its system with offensive production. They start with a franchise pick that may fill an areas of need long term, drafting C Joe Torre. Their 2nd round pick’s future is less clear, but whether Trea Turner ends up on the infield or CF, he should help in a year or two. Gary Matthews, their first of two picks in the 3rd round, should arrive earlier, but doesn’t have Turner’s ceiling.

At some point, long term potential just starts to overshadow concerns about fit: that was the case with José Cruz, with the 22 year old joining Birmingham with their 2nd pick in the 3rd round. Cruz may never develop enough power to be a star, but he has a pure stroke and has been on the board far longer then he should have.

The Black Barons used their final franchise exception on MI Adam Kennedy with their first pick in the fourth round and picked up a late bloomer, 27 year old SP Bob Smith, later in the round.

Rounds 5-8

The Black Barons have decent depth, so they can really take the best available talent. At some point, they need to pickup a 1B and a C, but in the 6th round it was lefty Steve Avery followed by 2B Marcus Giles–Giles is just too much better than the rest of their franchise selections to risk losing. George H. Stone was their 7th round selection and C Greg Olson their 8th.

Rounds 9-12

P Bill James, P Kerry Ligtenberg; P Eddie Solomon; P Kid Madden; 1B Del Bissonette.

Season Review: Kansas City Monarchs

66 - 88, .428 pct.
5th in Cum Posey Division, 25 games behind.

Overall

What a miserable year for the Monarchs. They were expected to contend, and just collapsed, despite the presence of some elite offensive players (most notably, of course, Stan Musial).

They converted some key veteran talent into a lot of pieces, so perhaps the franchise can bounce back quickly, but for now they rival the Black Yankees for the biggest disappointment in the league.

What Went Right

The offensive core of this team is very solid. At 22, Stan Musial spent most of the season on the fringes of the MVP discussion and at 21, Albert Pujols showed the kind of potential that could put him there. Even though both hit late season slumps, Boog Powell and Ducky Medwick were both solid, and Lou Brock and Willie McGee were virtually interchangeable, each with OPS’ around .810 and over 40 steals. Add in Ted Simmons‘ above-average production as a C, and the Monarchs should continue to score runs for a while.

Steve Evans never stopped hitting, demanding a closer look with the team next year.

Luke Hamlin had some of the most dominant starts in the league. Bob Gibson and Adam Wainwright both showed some serious potential and Jeff Pfeffer impressed as a closer–a challenge on a team that was very rarely close at the end of games. Craig Kimbrel and Trevor Rosenthal were good out of the pen as well.

ALL STAR SELECTIONS
2B Rogers Hornsby; OF Stan Musial; SP Andy Pettitte

What Went Wrong

Robinson Canó cooled off after seeming to step directly into Rogers Hornsby‘s shoes. Ozzie Smith was the worst offensive performer in the league to qualify for the batting crown (although, it must be said, he was in the argument for the gold glove at SS).

Ultimately, the team lacked pop. They hit for average, but at the end of the day, there was a bit too much of the McGee / Brock, base-at-a-time model.

Luke Hamlin had some of the worst starts in the league, and the rest of the staff ranged from inconsistent to horrible.

A lot of top tier talent–most notably Hornsby and Andy Pettitte–was traded away.

Trade Evaluations

March

OF Jim Edmonds to House of David for IF Robinson Canó

Sure.

June

2B Rogers Hornsby, OF Vince Coleman & 4th Round Pick to Portland for P Smoky Joe Wood and C Devin Mesoraco

Troubling. Wood struggled a lot, although he is only 20, and Mesoraco is likely never more than a backup backstop.

July

P Connie Johnson & 5th Round Pick to Baltimore for OF Merv Rettenmund, P Gene Garber & 2nd Round Pick {Jack Quinn}

Johnson has a world championship ring, so we’re happy for him for that. Maybe Garber turns into something?

P Andy Pettitte to Birmingham for C Dale Murphy, P A. Rube Foster, 2nd Round Pick {Matt Morris}, 5th Round Pick {Heliodoro Hidalgo}

Absolute steal, just about makes up for the rest. Pettitte was fantastic for Birmingham, and won the ERA crown, but Murphy has the scouts drooling, even if C is unlikely to be his final home, and A. Rube Foster has a great arm.

Looking Forward

SP

The future holds Bob Gibson, Adam Wainwright, and A. Rube Foster, which could be excellent. Pair that with José Rijo and a resurgent Smoky Joe Wood and the rotation could be quite strong. Could be.

RP

Craig Kimbrel and Jeff Pfeffer are strong, and there is some talent–Gene Garber, Jeff Reardon–behind them.

C

Ted Simmons has this locked for a while, and between Devin Mesocoro and Salvador Pérez, there is some depth as well.

1B

On the one hand there is no real claim here; on the other Albert Pujols, Dale Murphy, and even Stan Musial will probably drift towards this as well.

2B

Canó is possible, but there is hope that he gets some competition from the group of Kolten Wong, Dave Cash, and Frankie Frisch.

3B

Albert Pujols for now, but this may be an area of need down the road.

SS

Ozzie Smith for a while, at least as long as his defense compensates for his weak bat.

LF

Lou Brock looks solid here.

CF

Willie McGee was great this year, and there are hopes that Cool Papa Bell emerges here eventually–but can a team really succeed with both Brock and Bell?

RF

Stan Musial forever.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

A difficult choice. With the #3 overall pick, the Monarchs took a player who was a bit of a surprise, but also counts as a franchise selection, SP Hilton Smith. Smith sort of fit just right: he’ll help sooner than, say, Clayton Kershaw, but has a higher ceiling than most other pitching prospects.

With 3 picks in the 2nd round, the Monarchs started with the player least likely to stick around for a while, CF Earl Averill. It’s not clear how Averill fits into Kansas City’s plans, but his talent is undeniable. They followed that with 22 year old P Matt Morris, who (a) is a franchise pick and (b) may fight for a rotation spot this season. Finally, they added 25 year old Jack Quinn, who may join Morris at the WBL next season.

In the 3rd round, the Monarchs picked up IF Carlos Baerga, clearly believing that by the time he is ready for the majors, their 2B/3B situation will be clearer.

Rounds 5-8

Kansas City is looking to add some specific positional depth, specifically at 1B, SS, and CF.

With their final franchise exception, they take Heliodoro Hidalgo, who should help at CF. That begins to limit their options, making OF Wade Johnston a reasonable choice in round 6 and IF Polly Mongin a good fit in round 7. OF Ray Blades joins in the 8th round for some more OF depth.

Rounds 9-12

IF Dink Mothel; P Doug Bair; P Giovanny Gallegos; and P Larry French.

TWIWBL 52.1: End of Season Review – What Went Right

The first of a 2-parter reflecting on Year I of the WBL.

Overall Statistical Model

Somewhat arbitrarily, I used 2000 as the base year for Year I. MLB produced its 2nd highest ever OPS that season, slashing a cumulative 270/345/437. Year I of the WBL ended at 268/339/433.

That’s pretty darn close.

Year I was actually an almost perfect match for 2006’s 269/337/432.

So, yeah, offense heavy, but not more than asked for.

All Around Player Performance

Tomorrow I’ll publish what didn’t go so well, and the biggest thing is a couple specific outlier performances. But, so much about the league felt right. Babe Ruth did Babe Ruth things, sure.

But the all-around players were also dominant in a great way: Eddie Collins may have been the best player in the league, Willie Mays‘ impact was irresistible. Players who had “career years” (Tom Herr, Doug Rader, even Eric Davis) did so well within the overall shape of their MLB careers.

Pitching was weird as always. But the list of those at the front of the “best starter in the league” ranking was a great list: Walter Johnson, Gerrit Cole, Jack Taylor, Andy Pettitte, Christy Mathewson? Sure. Pettitte and Taylor overperformed, but pitching–and especially of course W/L records–are weird. Ron Guidry had a great year according to the deep stats, but struggled in the traditional evaluations.

And lots of pitchers struggled, which, again, feels about right.

NeL Players

The all-time greats may feel a little under-represented, but that’s largely because of the career perspective of the WBL. Cristóbal Torriente, Pete Hill, Oscar Charleston, and Louis Santop were each everyday starters by the end of the season despite being teenagers. Martín Dihigo and John Beckwith struggled a bit, but again, teenagers.

Here’s an overview of how the NeL entries did.

NameTeamAgePosNotes
John BeckwithSFS18IF237/306/384. Sent to AAA midseason. Showed WBL power, but struggled at AAA. Likely another year at AAA.
Ray BrownHOM23P7-7, 5.80. Struggled in WBL, but in the running for Year 2 rotation spot.
Bill ByrdBAL26P14-3, 3.33. An all-star and a front of rotation starter for the best team in the league.
Oscar CharlestonIND19OF277/313/438. Not many HR, but good power, great defense. A solid start.
Ray DandridgeBRK21IF256/323/359. Sparkplug for Brooklyn when healthy. A solid enough offensive start.
Leon DayHOU18P1-1, 4.91. Day was promising across 14 games (2 starts) before struggling with injuries and then being knocked out in June for the rest of the season. Expected to compete for swing role in Year 2.
Martín DihigoMCG18U195/235/319; 0-2, 12.15. Overwhelmed as a hitter, purely mop up on the mound. But perhaps the greatest defensive talent the league has ever seen, and adds so much roster flexibility that, if the OPS can just get over .600, a valuable piece.
Bunny DownsHOD25U216/256/351. 40 PAs of mediocre utility. Defensive flexibility helps.
Josh GibsonHOM20C289/386/448. An all star behind the plate at 20? Yes, please. Power will come, a great start.
Frank GrantHOD21IF200/263/200. A rough first 100 PA for the promising IF. AAA likely next year.
Pete HillHOU17OF287/323/440. A starter for about half the year. What a start for a 17 year old.
HR JohnsonHOU24IF252/310/357. A bit disappointing, honestly. Defensive flexibility is nice, but the Colt 45’s need more from him offensively.
Dick LundySFS21IF268/284/377. Total sparkplug when healthy. good defense, 30 SB. Should be a starter next year.
Carlos MoránMCG21OF221/369/262. Great defense and an OBP machine. Certainly in the mix to start in Year 2.
José MéndezMCG22P4-6, 4.56. Good secondary numbers and, by the end of the year, looked like a front of the rotation starter.
Joséito MuñozPOR19P5-5, 2.57. Fantastic when healthy. But now out until a few months into next year.
Alejandro OmsMCG20OF259/313/410. Solid. more power and better zone control would help. But, solid.
Eustaquio PedrosoMCG22OF/P278/316/444; 9-6, 4.81. Someone who performs around league average both in the field and on the mound has value.
Dick ReddingBRK20P0-5, 4.57. Not good enough to stay with Brooklyn all year, but not horrible. Showed enough at AAA at the plate (106 OPS+) to warrant a look as a two-way player.
Louis SantopCLE19C293/322/447. Doesn’t get on base enough, but he’s a C with solid D and still a teen. Future star.
Sam StreeterBBB24P7-6, 4.91. Very solid, pushed to bullpen at end of year.
Cristóbal TorrienteCAG17OF289/347/392. Excellent defense, solid–if low on power–offense. Likely to be a mainstay for the American Giants for a long time.
Smoky Joe WilliamsBRK20P4-1, 3.47. Sent down to spend most of the year at AAA, returned very strong down the stretch.

There are, of course, some others in the minor leagues–A. Rube Foster (9-2, 4.60 ERA across 5 minor league teams), Cool Papa Bell (252/304/339 with 39 SB, mostly at AA), some others.

Continuity

I started the first season of the WBL something like 40/45 years ago. The third season was completed over 20 years ago. This season–the first on OOTP, the fourth overall–was completed in about 3 years.

Across all of that–from handheld Strat-O-Matic play through SOM on a half-dozen different computers (beginning on a Commodore 64, natch) through 3 versions of OOTP–it feels similar. Storylines emerge that I enjoy, frustrations emerge at players underperforming, personalities of teams and franchises begin to appear.

I love all that.

I have no idea what to do with the first 3 years–the teams were totally different, some players occur in this version as well, many do not. If I can find an easy way to incorporate that history, I may do so, but I don’t see it yet. Shock of shocks, Babe Ruth would be the career HR leader …

TWIWBL 35.1: The Final Trading Window!

Welcome to the wild final day of trading for the season! We’re going to present these from the point of view of the contenders, with teams examined in order of their winning percentage so far this season.

Look for roster moves and implications in the next installments of TWIWBL. With 3/4 of the league making at least one deal, the impacts should be felt for a while …

Baltimore Black Sox

Baltimore got their hands on one of the best arms available, bringing in Connie Johnson from Kansas City. The Monarchs added a 5th round pick, receiving 2 prospects (OF Merv Rettenmund and RP Gene Garber) and a 2nd round pick for the 33 year-old hurler.

Grade: A. Johnson looks to be the real deal and should help the Black Sox withstand the recent rash of injuries.

Portland Sea Dogs

The Sea Dogs keep tweaking, sending 3 prospects–CF Kirby Puckett, RP Jim Kern, and SP Rick Wise–to Houston, with Trevor Hoffman and Mark Melancon coming back. Hoffman may compete with Elmer Brown for the closer role for Portland. The teams also traded some draft picks, with Houston sending a 4th to Portland in exchange for a 3rd and a 5th.

They also picked up perhaps the best OF available, as highly touted prospect Harmon Killebrew and a 1st round pick netted Gavvy Cravath and a 2nd round pick from Philadelphia, with the Stars also picking up most of Cravath’s salary for the rest of the season.

Grade: B. If they make the playoffs, sure, it makes sense. But Cravath is old, and Killebrew and Puckett are a lot of talent to give up (although both are pretty blocked by existing WBL talent).

New York Gothams

The Gothams were clearly trying to bolster their pitching, and pulled off a minor deal, sending prospects Travis Bowyer and Mike Shannon along with a 4th round pick to Homestead for Vean Gregg and a 5th rounder. They also added Steve Howe to their bullpen, sending the disgruntled Jeremy Affeldt and prospect Bob Moose to Ottawa.

And then they pulled off a bit of a blockbuster, as discussions with Miami surrounding Rube Waddell quickly spiraled out of control, with heavy drink most likely being involved. The Gothams sent Freddie Fitzsimmons, Cookie Rojas, Yasiel Puig, and a 2nd round pick to the Cuban Giants, receiving Waddell, Pete Runnels, and Will Clark in return.

Finally, as they now needed more depth they hit redial on their rotary phone and got in touch with Ottawa again, sending prospects George Burns and Art Devlin along with a 3rd round pick to the Mounties for George Van Haltren and two mid round picks (a 5th and a 6th).

Grade: C. It just seems like a lot of wheel-spinning. Is having Waddell and Gregg in the rotation really all that different than Moose and Fitzsimmons? Clark has been mediocre at best with Miami, and Rojas is a real loss.

Chicago American Giants

Chicago bolstered their pitching, picking up David Price from Indianapolis. Jorge Orta also goes to Chicago, with the American Giants sending prize prospect Robin Ventura, RP Tyler Clippard, and 2 draft picks (a 4th and a 5th) to the ABC’s.

Grade: A. Price may help compensate for the deeply flawed acquisition of Don Newcombe earlier in the summer.

Cleveland Spiders

The Spiders paid pretty dearly to upgrade the one slot in their lineup crying out for it, sending prized prospect Nap Lajoie, RP Arodys Vizcaíno, and a 1st round pick to Homestead for SS Arky Vaughan, SP Stan Bahnsen, and a 3rd rounder.

Grade: B. It all makes sense: Vaughan fills a need, Bahnsen has been solid at the WBL level and while Lajoie clearly is talented, for a team that has a shot at a championship this year, it works.

Detroit Wolverines

Especially with the loss of Whit Wyatt to injury, if Detroit is to make a move this year, they need pitching. So they sent quite a package of potential–2B Charlie Gehringer, 3B Bill Sweeney, SP Red Ehret, and a 4th Round Pick–to San Francisco for Charlie Root and Chad Bradford. It’s a lot, and the loss of Gehringer may hurt, but Detroit is really in win-now mode.

Grade: B. Root is excellent, and while they paid a little dearly, this year really looks to be the Wolverines’ best chance.

Birmingham Black Barons

Birmingham is unsure if its streak can continue, but an upgrade at C can’t hurt, so the Black Barons sent 2 IF prospects (SS Woody English and 3B Candy Jim Taylor) to Memphis for Jim Pagliaroni and a 4th round pick.

Then, late in the day, the pulled the trigger on a bit of a blockbuster, adding Andy Pettitte from Kansas City to their rotation. It cost quite a bit: C Dale Murphy (still a prospect despite his miserable WBL debut earlier in the season), P A. Rube Foster, a 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick. It was quite a declaration of intent by the Black Barons, we’ll see if it pans out.

Grade: A. Suddenly, Birmingham has a shot at the playoffs. Pettitte immediately becomes their #2 starter, and while they gave up some good talent, neither Murphy nor Foster look like world-burners at this point.

Wandering House of David

The House of David can still get lucky this year, so it moved to shore up a weak spot, sending prospects Bert Campaneris and Jeff Heathcock and a 3rd round pick to Miami for Ed Bauta and 2 later round picks (a 6th and a 7th).

Grade: C. Meh.

New York Black Yankees

The Black Yankees are desperate for bullpen help. They started to address the need picking up Aroldis Chapman from Miami, sending back Cole Hamels and Smoky Burgess, with Miami adding a 3rd round pick. With Bauta and Hoffman off the market, New York was forced to look at names further down their list.

They brought in Dick Tidrow from the House of David (who also threw in a 7th round pick), giving up a 2nd rounder and 2 prospects: SP Jim Clinton and 3B Chris Brown and then sent a similar package (LaTroy Hawkins, Fritz Coumbe, Mike Bordick, and a 3rd round pick) to Philadelphia for Rheal Cormier and a 4th rounder.

Grade: C. Overpaid on all fronts. Understandable, given the totally shambolic nature of the Black Yankees’ bullpen, but the loss of Hamels may hurt for many years, and Tidrow is little more than a fill-in.

TWIWBL 24.20: The All Star Trades

{The day after the All Star break is the first major trading period of the season, followed by the day before the trade deadline. Trades are somewhat randomized and limited in a variety of ways, basically an effort to ensure that, over time, they are at least approximately even in value.}

Portland signaled their commitment to this year, sending prized P prospect Smokey Joe Wood and Devin Mesoraco to Kansas City for all-star 2B Rogers Hornsby, OF Vince Coleman, and a 4th round draft pick.

Perhaps the prize pitching performer on the market, Birmingham‘s Tim Hudson, went to San Francisco in exchange for Rube Melton, Derrick May, and a 3rd round pick.

Brooklyn sends P Don Sutton to the New York Gothams for Ps Ray Lamb, Gil Heredia, and Lew Krausse, Jr., OF Don Mueller, and both a 1st and 8th round draft pick.

Cleveland made a clear sign of intent to compete this year, sending four players (P Hardie Henderson and OFs Jap Payne, Darrell Miller, and Gibby Brack) to Philadelphia for all-star reliever Ron Reed.

The Spiders also picked up Houston‘s struggling OF Lance Berkman to add more pop to their lineup, sending OF Harry Stovey, IF Charlie Grimm, P Chad Qualls, and a 3rd round pick to the Colt 45’s.

Media darling Tom Herr has a shot at a championship after Birmingham shipped the all-star 2B to the New York Black Yankees in exchange for a haul of talent, including IFs Moose Skowron and Reddy Mack, OFs Bill Buckner and Charlie Keller, P Heathcliff Slocumb, and a 10th round draft pick.

The Black Yankees also picked up some help on the mound, sending IF Dick Bartell, OF Sam Thompson, and a 4th round pick to Ottawa for Gary Lavelle and Jamie Moyer.

Addressing an area of clear need, Baltimore traded for Miami‘s everyday 3B, Manny Machado. The Black Sox sent a package of P Mike Morgan, 1B Richie Sexson, 3B Joe Dugan, and C Chris Hoiles to the Cuban Giants.

The Black Sox also shored up their bullpen, bringing in Memphis‘ closer, Joe Beggs, in exchange for P Willie Sudhoff, OF Alex Johnson, and a 4th round pick.

Ottawa and Los Angeles pulled off a complicated deal, with the Angels receiving 1B Carlos Delgado, IF Steve Garvey and OF Spud Johnson, sending OF Rusty Staub and Carlos Beltrán, C Jim Stephens, and Ps Dave Bennett and Sean O’Sullivan to the Mounties.

The Chicago American Giants added two of the better starting pitchers on the market, acquiring Don Newcombe from Miami and Dick Rudolph from Birmingham. The American Giants also received RP Clay Condrey and a 4th round draft pick for Minnie Miñoso from Miami, and sent Melky Cabrera, A. Rube Foster, Adrián González, and a 2nd round pick to Birmingham for Rudolph and Hoyt Wilhelm.

The American Giants also brought in SS Freddy Parent, who is expected to step right into the starting lineup. To do so, they sent IFs Sibby Sisti and Rickie Weeks and OF Bob Watson to Ottawa.

Miami’s other significant trade piece, Tommy Bridges, heads to San Francisco for two minor league pitchers, Shawn Estes and Turk Wendell, and a 5th round draft pick.

Los Angeles picked up some outfield help in the form of San Francisco’s Wally Moon. Moon heads south along with OF Dwayne Murphy and 2 draft picks (one 4th round, one 6th) in exchange for C Brian Downing, IF Kurt Stillwell, and P Dave LaRoche.

Detroit looked to improve their position behind the plate, obtaining Ernie Lombardi from Indianapolis for IFs Donie Bush and Jorge Orta, OF Gene Martin, P Brandon League, and a 2nd round pick.

Brooklyn added another versatile piece, sending OF Curt Flood, IF Manny Trillo, and a 6th round pick to Birmingham for IF Frank Isbell.

Two clubs looking towards the future made a big move, with Houston sending a 5th round pick, P Stubby Overmire, 2B DJ LeMahieu, P Jim Kaat, and OF Hack Wilson to Memphis for P Roger Clemens.

Sammy Sosa struggled so much for the House of David, it was decided the young OF could do with a change of scenery, going (along with a 5th round draft pick) to Memphis in exchange for OFs Fred Lynn and Tony Conigliaro and a 2nd round pick.

Finally, in easily the most minor deal of the day, Homestead picked up a 2nd round pick and IF Steve Hertz from San Francisco in exchange for Phil Garner.

TWIWBL 24.3: Mid Season Reviews – Chicago American Giants

Summary

Given some injury issues (Eddie Collins‘ being the most impactful), the American Giants should be quite pleased to sit in 2nd place, only 2 games behind Baltimore. The team is an offensive powerhouse, trying to get enough pitching and defense to get by.

What’s Gone Right

The Big Five. This lineup is just a killer. No team in the league can match the top five batters: Collins, Joe Jackson, Frank Thomas, Duffy Lewis, and Dick Allen. The lowest slash line combined of the four is 296/353/543. All five are in double-digits in homeruns, led by Lewis’ 20.

Sheets & Nichols. Ben Sheets and Tricky Nichols have been very, very strong at the front of the rotation.

Backstops. Carlton Fisk and Dave Nilsson give the American Giants one of the better catching combinations in the league, at least offensively.

What’s Gone Wrong

Shortstop. Luke Appling‘s shortcomings are masked by the rest of the lineup, but he’s not a good enough fielder to compensate for a .550 OPS. Damian Jackson was offered every opportunity, but hit even worse than Appling.

Back of the Rotation. Mark Buehrle and Herb Pennock have been very mediocre, and the less said about the tryouts for the 5th spot, the better.

Help from Below. The AAA callups–Avisaíl García, Magglio Ordóñez, Adrián González–have done almost nothing to help. The only bright spot has been Rocky Colavito‘s power, but even he is struggling to bring his BA over .200.

Key Storylines

The big question here is just how far the offense can carry them, and how the Big Five continue to evolve.

Cristóbal Torriente has caught some eyes as an all-use OF, and, perhaps, on the mound as well.

Trading Outlook

BUYING.

3B Robin Ventura and 1B Bob Watson are blocked at the WBL level, and so could be on the move.

AAA Shuttle

It’s the same names. José Abreu, Kevin Mitchell, Ventura, and Watson have been the best performers at AAA, although each have struggled in the WBL.

Midseason Changes

Joe Lake and Fernando Rodney are back in the minors, with Frank Smith being recalled into the 5th rotation spot.

Awards

All Stars: Dick Allen (3B); Eddie Collins (2B); Joe Jackson (RF); Duffy Lewis (LF); AJ Minter (P); Tricky Nichols (P); Frank Thomas (DH).

Player of the Week: Duffy Lewis (5/8)

Offensive MVP: Frank Thomas (1B)
Pitching MVP: Tricky Nichols (SP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: Milwaukee Brewers

Next to the Show: 1B José Abreu, OF Minnie Miñoso, RP Nate Jones (30), RP Eddie Fisher (36).

Prospects: OF Minnie Miñoso (23), 3B Robin Ventura (23), 1B Bob Watson (22).

Projects: 1B José Abreu (30), P A. Rube Foster (22).

Suspects: P Buddy Black (33), Wally Moses (32), Steve Braun (36), Ozzie Guillén (33), P Lee Meadows (33).

AA: Madison Black Wolf

Prospects: RP Víctor Cruz (21), RP Scott Radinksy (23).

Projects: Melky Cabrera (22), P Harry Buckner (23), 3B Sibby Sisti (19), P Walt Craddock (23), P Sean Gallagher (21).

Suspects: 1B Mike Squires (26), 3B Danny Murtaugh (24), OF Henry Cotto (25), P Dick Erickson (28).

TWIWBL 23.0: All-Star Weekend – The Futures Game

This game looks to be a bit of a mismatch: the sheer volume of talent on team USA is a bit overwhelming.

Tony Solaita of the World Team led off the inaugural Futures Game with a single up the middle off Bob Gibson, but a popout and a double play would end the inning without damage.

Fernando Valenzuela‘s opening frame didn’t go as well: Art Devlin singled and stole second, and then attempted to score on a base hit from Charlie Gehringer, but César Hernández‘ throw home was strong enough to nail him at the plate. Gehringer would score on a base-hit from Jimmie Foxx to put the USA up, 1-0.

Foxx was at it again in the bottom of the 3rd, scoring Devlin with a mammoth shot to left field, increasing the lead to 3-0.

Roberto Alomar greeted A. Rube Foster in the top of the 4th with a leadoff double. Alomar moved to third on a flyball to center by Shin-Soo Choo, and scored on a soft single from Sammy Sosa. Despite loading the bases, however, that was all the World team could muster, leaving the score 3-1.

Gehringer would drive in 2 more in the bottom of the frame upping the lead to 5-1.

And that would be it.

For the USA, Terry Forster, Frank Smith, Smokey Joe Williams, Jake Peavy, and Mike Adams combined for 5.1 innings of scoreless relief, while for the World, Steve Chitren, Jesse Crain, Moe Drabowsky, Arodys Vizcaíno, and Luiz Gohara closed the game without allowing a hit over the final 4 innings.

Foxx’s homerun and 3 RBIs were enough to walk away with the MVP Award, although Gehringer (2-for-4 with a run and 2 RBIs) and Devlin (2-for-2 with a run scored) each had an argument.

For the World, Tip O’Neill reached base 4 times, with 2 hits and 2 walks. It was a much worse day at the plate for Sosa and Hernández, each of whom struck out 3 times.

The idiotic choice by the AI to not select a catcher was impactful, as Abreu split time behind the plate with Jorge Orta, combining for 5 passed balls.

World 1 (Valenzuela 0-1) @ USA 5 (Maddux 1-0)
HRs: USA – Foxx (1).
Box Score

Roster Notes

The Wandering House of David and the Brooklyn Royal Giants each have 7 representatives in the game, and the Chicago American Giants have 5. Time will tell if that is an indicator of a strong talent pipeline or not.

Two of the players–the House of David’s Sosa and Los Angeles’ Carlos Beltrán–were traded over the all-star break. Both of them, along with San Francisco’s Sal Bando, Ottawa’s Alex Rodríguez and Roberto Alomar, and Birmingham’s Greg Maddux were recalled to the big leagues over the break.

Here are the full rosters, listing the level and WBL organization. Starters are listed in bold.

World Team Roster

Abreu was drafted in to catch, O’Neill as the DH, and López at 3B.

C: None. Whoops.

1B: Tip O’Neill (AA, Ottawa); Tony Solaita (AAA, Cleveland)

2B: Roberto Alomar (AAA, Ottawa); Jorge Orta (AA, Detroit)

3B: None, but both López and Hernández can play here.

SS: Luis Aparicio (AA, House of David); Bert Campaneris (AA, House of David, suspended); Jhonny Peralta (AAA, Indianapolis)

LF: Shin-Soo Choo (AAA, Houston)

CF: Carlos Beltrán (AA, Los Angeles); Héctor López (AA, New York Black Yankees); César A. Hernández (AA, Philadelphia)

RF: Bobby Abreu (AAA, Philadelphia); Willie Montañez (AA, Baltimore); Sammy Sosa (AAA, House of David)

P: José Capellán (AA, Memphis); Steve Chitrin (AAA, Brooklyn); Jesse Crain (AA, Ottawa); Víctor Cruz (AA, Chicago); Moe Drabowsky (AA, New York Gothams); Luiz Gohara (AAA, Memphis); Tom Harrison (AA, House of David); Fergie Jenkins (AAA, House of David); Sergio Valdéz (AA, Homestead); Fernando Valenzuela (AAA, Brooklyn); Arodys Vizcaíno (AA, Cleveland)

Team USA Roster

C: Cliff Lee (AAA, Portland); Mike Piazza (AAA, Brooklyn)

1B: Cap Anson (AA, House of David); Jimmie Foxx (AA, San Francisco)

2B: Charlie Gehringer (AAA, Detroit)

3B: Sal Bando (AAA, San Francisco); Art Devlin (AAA, New York Gothams)

SS: Ray Chapman (AA, Detroit); Alex Rodríguez (AAA, Ottawa)

LF: Bob Watson (AAA, Chicago)

CF: John Briggs (AA, Brooklyn); Kirby Puckett (AA, Portland)

RF: Dwight Evans (AAA, Memphis); Al Kaline (AAA, Detroit); Merv Rettenmund (AAA, Baltimore)

P: Mike Adams (AAA, Chicago); Terry Forster (AAA, Brooklyn); A. Rube Foster (AAA, Chicago); Bob Gibson (AAA, Kansas City); Greg Maddux (AAA, Birmingham); Jake Peavy (AAA, New York Black Yankees); Chris Short (AA, Brooklyn); Frank Smith (AAA, Chicago); Karl Spooner (AA, House of David); Smokey Joe Williams (AAA, Brooklyn).

Getting to 30: Cum Posey Division

#Baltimore Black Sox

John Wetteland and BJ Ryan have been miserable, and are on their way to AAA. That hurts, as Ryan was the predicted closer for the Black Sox. That leaves the team really without a closer, with Don Bessent and Bob Miller most likely to get the initial opportunities. Rafael Betancourt looked like a contender, but he couldn’t stop tossing gopher balls, leading him to AAA to see if he can keep the ball in the park.

Ned Garvin and Rube Foster are still battling for the final rotation slot. It’s not clear if Bill Byrd‘s return from injury will impact the situation or not.

The biggest surprise may be the failure of 21 year old Eddie Murray to make the roster. On the other hand, teenage phenom Bryce Harper has earned a chance to prove his worth over the final week of Spring Training, costing Baby Doll Jacobsen a spot.

Ramon Hernandez and Curt Blefary look set to platoon behind the plate. Final distribution of playing time between Merv Rettenmud, Ken Singleton, and Alex Johnson is yet to be figured out.

3B continues to be a cloudy position, as Harlond Clift and Bill Sweeney have hit the best, but Brooks Robinson continues to show power and the best defense of the trio.

#Chicago American Giants

The front end of the pitching staff is pretty settled, but the back end is a mess. Mark Buehrle has nailed down the #4 starting spot, but the final spot is a toss-up between Ed Walsh, Herb Pennock, and Tricky Nichols. The challenge is only 2 of those make the opening day roster at all. Rube Foster will start the year at AAA, but should be back in the big leagues relatively quickly.

Ultimately, Rickie Weeks‘ bat doesn’t outweigh Nellie Fox‘s glove to backup Eddie Collins at 2B, so Weeks joins Minnie Minoso and Chico Carrasquel in AAA.

Frank Thomas has shown signs of emerging from his struggles, sending Jose Abreu to the minors, but the final cut is quite difficult for the American Giants. Ultimately, Robin Ventura‘s glove gave him the edge over Joe Crede.

#Houston Colt 45s

Billy Wagner has been historically bad, punching his ticket for AAA, where he’ll be joined by Dan Quisenberry. Both of them showed some potential, and may be back up quickly.

Scott Erickson, Bret Saberhagen, and Dock Ellis are battling for the final starting spot, with the other 2 likely to still make the opening day roster.

The rest of the cuts were really quite simple: the gap between Morgan Ensberg, Gorman Thomas, Shawon Dunston, Pete Hill, Felipe Alou, and Lance Blankenship and the rest of the roster was significant, so all 6 of them head to AAA. At 17, Hill should be back, while at 36, Alou may be done.

#Kansas City Monarchs

In one of the biggest surprises of the Spring, Bob Gibson heads to AAA. Walking 15 batters in 17 innings will do that. He’ll be back as soon as his command returns. Connie Johnson takes one long relief role, with Adam Wainwright edging out Jock Menefee for the other.

Jeff Pfeffer and Trevor Rosenthal will split the closing duties, but the middle of the bullpen remains a bit of a mystery.

Ted Simmons and Ducky Medwick were lucky to stay in camp, and have about a week to show they belong. Frankie Frisch, surprisingly, has headed back to AAA, along with Cool Papa Bell and Steve Evans, to try to get something going. All of these moves are related to Gene Freese, Ken Oberkfell, and Salvador Perez absolutely pounding the ball all Spring.

#Ottawa Mounties

Either Old Hoss Radbourn or Randy Johnson will be the 5th starter with Felix Hernandez heading to AAA, but neither have pitched well at all. Nor, honestly, has Ted Bowsfield, yet he retains his position as closer.

The other cuts should have been easy. Jackie Jensen, and Brant Alyea have done virtually nothing all Spring. George Van Haltren and John Olerud belong in that group as well, but are needed for depth at 1B and in the OF, especially with Larry Walker out injured for a couple more weeks.

The real challenge is at 2B, where all 4 contenders have played well, led by Tim Raines. George Cutshaw provides decent defense, so he’s in. Kirt Manwaring–yet to find a single hit–should really be the final cut, but he has to be kept to maintain 3 C’s on the roster. That leaves Bernie Allen and Roberto Alomar. Right now, Allen is the better player, so despite Alomar’s much higher upside, he goes to AAA.

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