Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Allen Russell

Year III Season Preview: Brooklyn Royal Giants

State of the Franchise

team logo

Brooklyn won the whole thing, in a year where nobody saw them coming. But they’re Brooklyn — nobody ever does. The Royal Giants were a surprise division winner and a bigger surprise in October, running through the bracket and then handling the heavily favored San Francisco Sea Lions in the Whirled Series. From a .500 team in 2000 to a 99-63 champion.

And then … they spent the winter trading 2 of the key pieces of the championship run.

Brooklyn is New York’s third team, forever looked down on by the Yankees and the Gothams, and its edge seems to be first, to feel no sentiment, and, second, to care for the clubhouse. A ring didn’t change that. Within months of the parade the champions dealt Don Drysdale and John Briggs, the former for pouting when he was passed over to start the opening game of the Whirled Series and the latter because the Royal Giants believe they could get more value in return.

Brooklyn is convinced their offense will survive the passing of the home-run-friendly era, with Ron Cey at third, Jackie Robinson and Roy White as the heart and soul of the club, Mike Piazza behind the plate, and Smokey Joe Williams and Orel Hershiser at the front of the rotation.

The job now isn’t to defend a title. It’s to turn a surprise into a dynasty.

2001 Revisited

Our preview a year ago called this roster very middle of the road, penciled in a modest playoff hunt, and hung the whole thing on 2 names: Drysdale, the supposed lone dependable starter, and Briggs, the outfielder we swore would keep setting the world on fire.

Not wrong. Also not the story.

Cey slugged 47 homers with a 291/381/656 line and took the club MVP. Piazza finally arrived, mashing 48. Dan Brouthers settled first base with a .950 OPS. And the arms the org supposedly couldn’t trust carried it: Hershiser went 19-5, a converted Fernando Valenzuela 14-5, and Eric Gagné slammed the door 39 times. Williams was the best of them and had the least to show for it — a 7-WAR performance stuck with a 12-13 record.

Then the champions got to work dismantling the edges of their own title team. Drysdale — who threw a public fit about ceding the top of the rotation spot to Hershiser — went to Memphis with Red Ruffing (signed as a FA the previous week) in a package essentially for Mookie Betts, giving Brooklyn the marquee OF they had always lacked. Briggs, exactly the doubted-kid-makes-good story this fanbase adores, followed him to Memphis a few weeks later, bringing back a first-round pick and a pair of prospects.

Key Changes

In: Mookie Betts (MEM); Billy Bryan (MEM); Joe Smith (FA)
Out: John Briggs (MEM); Don Drysdale (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

The core doesn’t regress and the luck evens out. Cey, Piazza, Robinson, and Brouthers are all in their primes. Williams gets the record his WAR deserves, Hershiser is Hershiser, and Gagné closes. Behind the top 2, one of the other arms holds up well enough to carry them into October again. And, if someone does go down, the best farm system in baseball — it isn’t close — starts feeding the big club: for example, Ed Delahanty or Al Simmons arriving to turn the outfield into an embarrassment of riches. All of that, and Brooklyn goes back-to-back, and the surprise becomes a dynasty.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching falls short. Behind Williams and Hershiser, Valenzuela regresses, Dick Redding fails to develop, and the rest turn out to be merely average at best. The bullpen — excellent in 2001 — collapses, leaving no reliable bridge to Gagné. Pedro Guerrero keeps flailing, and the lineup that looked fearsome in a juiced year looks ordinary in a normal one. All of that, and the champion drifts back toward the .500 club it was in 2000, relegated to be a curious footnote of WBL history.

Oh yeah, and Drysdale wins the Brock Rutherford Award in the AL.

Key Questions

  • Can the rotation hold? Yeah, Brooklyn had excess pitching. But trading Drysdale is a massive bet on … well, who exactly? Valenzuela? Redding? Ralph Branca? Nap Rucker? You can’t say you would prefer any of them over Drysdale without giggling. The answer may be young lefty Sandy Koufax, but he’s likely a bullpen arm this season as he works on building up the endurance to handle a starter’s load.
  • Can a champion still be the underdog? What happens when Brooklyn wins, again? It sort of breaks reality, yes?
  • How much of Duke Snider is real? Center field is now his with Briggs’ departure. Snider led the club with 51 homers — and was worth 0.2 WAR doing it, a .259 average and a .295 on-base underneath the power. Brooklyn traded the productive outfielder in Briggs and kept the other one in center, betting his ceiling was higher. It’s not clear.
  • Where does the Whirled Series MVP play? Lost in Piazza’s October is the man who won the round that mattered most: Ray Dandridge, a 22-year-old infielder who caught fire in the Series and has no position to call his own. Cey owns third, Robinson owns second, and Vern Stephens sparkled since being brought in at SS. Dandridge takes his reps everywhere, but at some point will force some hard questions.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPiazza A · Bryan
1BBrouthers B
2BRobinson A
SSStephens D
3BCey S
LFWhite C
CFSnider C
RFBetts C
DHBecker C · Guerrero F
SPWilliams A · Hershiser B · Valenzuela A · Redding · Leonard · Dreifort
RPGagné S (CL) · Forster A · Koufax C · Knauss D · Hildenberger B (IL)

A core of genuine stars — Cey, Piazza, Robinson, Williams, Valenzuela — deep enough to win a title and young enough to win several.

The bullpen is where the grid hides something. Gagné is an S-tier closer and Terry Forster an A-tier setup man, but the bridge to them leans hard left, and Trevor Hildenberger — the one right-handed answer with a real track — opens the year on the IL. Until he’s back, it’s all lefties all the time for Brooklyn.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Mike Piazza1B Justin Smoak; 1B Jim Gentile
Batting Eye3B Ron Cey1B Justin Smoak
Contact1B Dan BrouthersRF Matty Alou
Running SpeedRF Mookie BettsSS Sonny Jackson
Base StealingRF Beals Becker; 1B Dan Brouthers2B Davey Lopes; RF Chicken Wolf
IF Defense2B Jackie RobinsonSS Tim Foli
OF DefenseRF Mookie BettsRF Chicken Wolf
StuffRP Eric GagnéSP Jim Bunning; SP Allen Russell
ControlSP Smokey Joe WilliamsSP Jordan Zimmermann
VelocityRP Eric GagnéRP Steve Chitren

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (1)212BEd Delahanty
2 (13)25RFChicken Wolf
3 (17)23SPWalker Buehler
4 (24)22SPJim Kaat
5 (25)21CFAl Simmons
6 (34)22SPEustace Newton
7 (47)23RFDon Mueller
8 (56)25SPDustin McGowan
9 (79)26RFGeorge Selkirk

Others: OF Brett Butler, OF Jay Johnstone, P Victor González, P Odalis Pérez.

The best farm system in baseball, and it isn’t close — 9 ranked names headed by Ed Delahanty, the No. 1 prospect in the sport, a 21-year-old second baseman with the small problem that Robinson already owns the position. He is taking reps in left field.

A year ago this list graduated Smokey Joe Williams and Valenzuela straight into a championship rotation, and produced Briggs at #5. What remains is an arms-and-outfielders wave — Al Simmons, Jim Kaat, Walker Buehler — pressing up from below.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeBurleigh Grimes, 36Odalis Pérez, 20
HeightLuke Farrell, 6’6″Candy Jim Taylor, 5’5″
OPSJim Gentile, 1.053 (AAA)Rollie Hemsley, 0.550 (A)
HRDuke Snider, 51Rollie Hemsley, 1 (A)
SBJackie Robinson, 53
WAR (bat)Ron Cey, 5.0Pedro Guerrero, -1.1
WOrel Hershiser, 19
SVEric Gagné, 39
ERAArt H Johnson, 3.20 (AA)Jordan Zimmermann, 5.80 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Smokey Joe Williams, 7.1Dazzy Vance, -0.1 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Season Review: Memphis Red Sox

71 - 83, .461 pct.
5th in Bill James Division, 18 games behind.

Overall

Memphis had a rough year: the pitching was never very good, and there were a ton of disappointments on the offensive side as well. If they can find some pitching, however, there may be no team in the league better positioned for a bounce back, and they ended the year on a 17-4 record, perhaps indicating better times are coming.

What Went Right

There were some things. OF Reggie Smith and Ted Williams look like elite players, despite Williams’ late season slide. Smith is 23, Williams 21, so that should lock up 2 of the Red Sox’s OF slots for a while.

Billy Bryan hit very well in limited action, and both Bill White and Wade Boggs looked solid as well.

Sammy Sosa did very well after being obtained in a mid-season trade, posting a SLG of .551 with Memphis.

Stubby Overmire was a pleasant surprise after arriving from Houston, finishing 3rd in the WBL in ERA. He, Dean Chance and, when healthy, Bill Doak looked solid as starters and Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell were each fantastic in the bullpen.

ALL STARS
RP Craig Kimbrel; OF Reggie Smith; OF Ted Williams

What Went Wrong

Neither Mookie Betts nor Manny Ramírez did enough, both being surpassed by Sosa on the depth chart (and with even more OF talent in the minors, it’s not clear if their futures lie with Memphis).

The MI was a mess all year, although Claude Ritchey did well enough at the end of the season to lay a claim for next year. Francisco Lindor and Dustin Pedroia were especially disappointing, leaving the Red Sox far too reliant on Iván De Jesús throughout the season (a fine utility part, not a starter).

The rest of the starting staff was a mess, either far too inconsistent (Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield) or just plain bad (Nixey Callahan especially).

Trade Evaluations

March

None

June

P Roger Clemens to Houston for OF Hack Wilson, P Jim Kaat, 2B DJ LeMahieu, P Stubby Overmire & 5th Round Pick {Nathan Eovaldi}

Clemens was struggling mightily in Memphis, and this is a nice haul of talent in return.

P Joe Beggs to Baltimore for P Willie Sudhoff, OF Alex Johnson & 4th Round Pick {Bill Lee}

Beggs’ age (33) makes this OK, I guess.

OF Tony Conigliaro, OF Fred Lynn & 2nd Round Pick to House of David for OF Sammy Sosa & 5th Round Pick

Seemed quite questionable at the time, but Sosa’s performance since has made this look like a win for the Red Sox.

July

C Jim Pagliaroni & 4th Round Pick to Birmingham for IF Woody English & 3B Candy Jim Taylor

Taylor is the best player in the deal, which usually would mean Memphis wins this one.

Looking Forward

SP

There is just so little talent here long term. Derek Lowe? I guess. A real weakness.

RP

Not bad. Papelbon and Bell for now, along with help from Joe Kelly and the continued effectiveness of Tim Wakefield as a swingman.

C

An area of need, especially if Billy Bryan stumbles. Jason Varitek has some promise and Kurt Suzuki showed outstanding defensive potential in a short trial (although he couldn’t hit a lick).

1B

Bill White did fine here, but he’s really just warming the spot for prospect David Ortiz.

2B

The Red Sox would love to see either DJ LeMahieu or Dustin Pedroia make this position theirs long term.

3B

Wade Boggs should be good here for a long time, although room will eventually need to be made for Candy Jim Taylor.

SS

Vern Stephens was supposed to be the answer, and if not Stephens, Francisco Lindor. Neither showed much, so there is some concern here.

LF

Ted Williams for at least a decade.

CF

Reggie Smith has this locked down, although Hack Wilson looks intriguing down the road.

RF

OK, this just gets messy. Somehow, between RF and DH, the Red Sox need to find playing time for Sammy Sosa, Mookie Betts, and Manny Ramírez, with Dwight Evans coming right behind them.

The Rookie Draft

Rounds 1-4

The most confounding spot in the draft so far is Memphis at #6. The Red Sox don’t have a 2nd round pick, and Carl Yastrzemski is unlikely to be around by the 3rd round. But the team is so deep at 1B/OF right now … there are two options here: take Yaz and make it tomorrow’s problem, capitalizing on his franchise status or take one of the young pitchers who will help them sooner, likely either Tom Glavine or Zack Greinke.

At the end of the day, the team decided to draft on talent over need, selecting Yastremski.

The Red Sox were thrilled that Dobie Moore was still around in the 3rd round, and hope the 25 year old can step right into the starting role at SS.

They took Bill Lee with the final pick of the 4th round.

Rounds 5-8

While more arms are never a bad thing, the Red Sox system is fairly sparse in 1B and OFers. So their 5th round picks are 1B Joe Cunningham, P Nathan Eovaldi, and P Dick Drago. With Eovaldi and Drago being franchise picks, it’s not clear what will compel Memphis to use its remaining exceptions.

One was spent on OF George Case in the 6th round, but franchise pitcher Mickey McDermott was the best arm available in the 7th round. While it’s not clear where he’ll actually play, it is obvious that Charlie Smith can hit, making him a potential steal in the 8th round with their final franchise exception.

Rounds 9-12

P Allen Russell; OF Troy O’Leary; P Dale Mohorcic; and P Connor Seabold.

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