Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Andrew Miller Page 1 of 2

TWIWBL 102.3: Year 3, Week 5 – Bill James Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Memphis Red Sox20-11.645—
New York Black Yankees18-13.5812
Cleveland Spiders11-17.3937.5
Detroit Wolverines11-20.3559
Baltimore Black Sox8-22.26711.5
Bill James Division | 6 May

Baltimore Black Sox

John Tudor is back from the disabled list, with Mike Mussina heading to AAA after an unimpressive brief return to the WBL.

Cleveland Spiders

Tris Speaker hit 2 solo homeruns in a 4-3 loss to Los Angeles.

Louis Santop is out about a week, and Tucker Barnhart has been recalled from Buffalo. With 37 year old Ed Bailey and John Ellis likely to get most of the starts behind the plate, Cleveland opted for a defensive backstop as the recall.

Willie McCovey hit 2 solo homeruns, the second a game winner, giving Stretch 6 on the year. Aroldis Chapman — who spent April turning leads into wild adventures — struck out the side in the 9th for his first save.

Detroit Wolverines

Sid Fernandez moves into the rotation, replacing the 0-5 Pete Conway, who goes to long relief (with his bat and legs likely to get some use on the side as well). Fernandez has earned the opportunity with a strong start to the season.

Connie Johnson had struck out 10, but ended up without a decision in a 3-1 win over Miami.

In his first start Fernandez struck out 16 Spiders over 6.2 innings, walking one. The 16 whiffs set a league record–which is a bit shocking if you think about it–and even though the Wolverines lost the game, they have to be pleased with what looks like a solid surprise starter.

Wander Franco‘s rehab assignment ended without a recall. Damion Easley has held the flex-infield seat since Franco went down in the first week and keeps it; Franco stays at AAA.

Memphis Red Sox

Ted Williams hit 2 solo homeruns off Walter Johnson — one in the 1st, one in the 3rd — in a 4-1 win over Portland, in support of Don Drysdale, who struck out 9 over 7 innings.

The next day, Tom Seaver, Jon Lester, Rollie Fingers and Andrew Miller combined on a 5-hit shutout in a 1-0 win over the Sea Dogs.

Rick Wilkins went 4-for-5 with a homerun and 2 doubles in a 10-6 win at Baltimore. Andrew Benintendi hit his first of the year and Williams his 15th as part of a 17-hit barrage.

New York Black Yankees

Ron Guidry struck out 12 over 7 innings against San Francisco, but it took 12 innings for the Black Yankees to win the game on a single by Thurman Munson, driving in Ed Charles.

The next afternoon Gaylord Perry and Hoyt Wilhelm combined on a 5-hit shutout, as New York topped the Sea Lions once more, this time 4-0.

Tony Brizzolara struck out 7 in 5 innings, Tony Mullane got the win in relief, Rhéal Cormier got his 2nd hold, and Goose Gossage closed it out as the 4 New York pitchers combined on a 4 hit shutout against Chicago for a 3-0 win in the first game of a doubleheader.

In the nightcap, Rogers Hornsby hit 2 homeruns, Babe Ruth and Don Mattingly added longballs of their own, Joe Sewell reached five times, and Lou Gehrig singled home the winner in the 10th in a 12-11 win for the Black Yankees.

TWIWBL 102.1: Year 3, Week 5 – One Month In!

6 May, 2002

And we enter the second month of the season! Whoo Hoo!

Which means we have monthly awards for the first time, and we have our first review of the early standings.

#Awards

Miami‘s Robin Yount is the AL Player of the Week, hitting .450 with 2 homeruns, 6 runs and 5 RBI, and slugging an even 1.000. Yount is up to .283 with 6 homeruns and 12 doubles on the year.

The NL Player of the Week goes to Grant Johnson of the New York Gothams for the second week running: Johnson hit .409 with 3 homeruns, 3 doubles and 7 RBI while slugging .955. Overall, he’s hitting .379 with 9 homeruns and a league-leading 15 doubles.

In the minors: Freddie Lindstrom (Chicago American Giants) took the award at AAA Milwaukee, where the 21-year-old third baseman is hitting .306 with 7 homeruns, making his early demotion seem a bit of a mistake in judgement by the American Giants; Raúl Mondesi (Wandering House of David) won at AA Albuquerque, and Al López (Brooklyn) at A-ball Albany, where the 33-year-old catcher is hitting .426.

#April Awards

The first month is in the books, and one name on the list is no surprise at all.

Ted Williams (Memphis) is the AL Batter of the Month, having hit .437 with 14 homeruns, 30 runs and 34 RBI in April while slugging an even 1.000. Grant Johnson takes the NL award–not a surprise given the above.

Waite Hoyt (Chicago) is the AL Pitcher of the Month, going 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. For a team whose primary weakness was dependable starting pitching, the acquisition of Hoyt sure looks like good work for Chicago.

Over in the NL, the Pitcher of the Month goes to one of Johnson’s teammates on the Gothams, Christy Mathewson. Seemingly returning to his 2000 form, Matty has started the season perfectly, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA.

Whitey Ford (New York Black Yankees) went 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA in April, earning the AL Rookie of the Month Award, and in the NL, Philadelphia‘s Harmon Killebrew is the Rookie of the Month, despite only hitting .255. 9 homeruns in a calendar month will do that.

The minors have their own monthly awards too, of course.

At AAA, Roger Maris of the New York Black Yankees was the Batter of the Month, hitting .418 with 11 homeruns at Newark, and Mike Scott (Los Angeles) won the Pitcher of the Month, going 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Cody Bellinger (Wandering House of David) hit .404 at AA Albuquerque and Hugh Mulcahy (Homestead) went 3-0 with a 1.93 at AA Syracuse. At A-ball, John Bass (Philadelphia) hit 10 homeruns and Fred Gladding (Indianapolis) allowed only 2 earned runs in 15.1 innings, as they took home the monthly honors.

#Team Performance

I know it’s early. You know it’s early. Still, it is May. And that’s no longer April, right?

The best records in the WBL belong to two surprise teams: Memphis leads the Bill James Division and Philadelphia tops the Effa Manley, each with a 20-11 record–that’s a .645 clip.

Ottawa (a game behind Philadelphia) and Chicago (leading the Cum Posey Division) are the only other teams playing over .600 ball.

The Baltimore Black Sox sit at the other end of the scale, already 11.5 games out in the Bill James Division, sitting at 8-22. But they aren’t the only major disappointments: both Birmingham and Indianapolis are only winning at a .333 clip (10-20).

Full standings are at the top of each divisional page for the curious.

#Player Performance

Five weeks in, qualifying is 3.1 plate appearances or 1 inning per team game — about 96 PA and 31 innings.

Some early season streaks of note: The Gothams’ Grant Johnson has a 15 game hitting streak going and Memphis’ Ted Williams has reached base in 30 straight. On the mound, Chicago’s Joel Horlen hasn’t allowed a run in 23 innings and Kansas City’s Smokey Joe Wood in 14.

#Batters

Ted Williams is still the story, and it is getting harder to describe without sounding like an advertisement: he leads the WBL in batting average, on-base, slugging, homeruns, runs, RBI, walks and WAR, outright. That only leaves 2B, 3B, and SB for others.

This list should reduce a little over time, but it’s got some decent WBL storylines in it–the resurgence of a healthy Pete Browning, Rico Carty‘s deal with the devil to combat his age, Cool Papa Bell giving Rickey Henderson some competition for the SB crown, etc.

But it’s really all about The Splendid Splinter for now.

Ernie Banks (HOD). .225/.299/.549. 9 HR, 27 RBI.
Cool Papa Bell (KAN). .204/.295/.280. 10 SB.
Dan Brouthers (BRK). .369/.416/.612. 11 2B.
Pete Browning (HOD). .331/.389/.508. 10 2B, 9 SB.
Rico Carty (PHI). .374/.442/.670.
Oscar Charleston (IND). .300/.341/.642. 12 HR, 29 RBI, 1.9 WAR.
Roberto Clemente (HOM). .372/.413/.698. 7 HR.
Ty Cobb (DET). .345/.390/.708. 10 HR, 2.0 WAR.
Eric Davis (NYY). .260/.353/.452. 8 SB.
Lou Gehrig (NYY). .288/.373/.635. 25 RBI.
Hank Greenberg (DET). .272/.348/.476. 4 3B.
Bobby Grich (BBB). .202/.362/.279. 22 BB.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). .229/.333/.365. 9 SB.
Grant Johnson (NYG). .379/.402/.741. 9 HR, 15 2B, 1.6 WAR.
Harmon Killebrew (PHI). .275/.325/.569. 10 HR.
Willie Mays (NYG). .289/.344/.588. 25 R.
Joe Morgan (IND). .253/.405/.374. 23 BB.
Jackie Robinson (BRK). .336/.381/.509. 14 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). .232/.387/.611. 11 HR, 21 BB.
Chino Smith (CAG). .292/.324/.736. 13 HR, 30 R, 32 RBI.
Mike Trout (LAA). .300/.349/.567. 12 2B.
Ted Williams (MEM). .419/.533/.914. 15 HR, 33 R, 39 RBI, 27 BB, 2.7 WAR.

#Pitchers

#Starters

There’s nowhere near the single person dominance on the mound–early days, of course, but it looks like we may have some good years on the mound coming.

Brett Anderson (HOD). 4-2, 2.84.
Steve Carlton (PHI). 4-1, 2.56. 41 K.
Don Drysdale (MEM). 2-1, 2.48. 49 K.
Bob Feller (CLE). 1-4, 4.58. 52 K.
Whitey Ford (NYY). 3-2, 3.19. 2.94 FIP.
Ned Garvin (BAL). 1-2, 4.10. 50 K, .208 BABIP.
Lefty Gomez (BBB). 2-4, 2.82. 2.30 FIP.
Dwight Gooden (LAA). 2-2, 4.30. 1.96 FIP, 1.7 WAR.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 3-1, 3.47. 62 K.
Waite Hoyt (CAG). 4-1, 2.52. 42 K, 2.60 FIP.
Walter Johnson (POR). 3-3, 2.76. 64 K, 2.66 FIP.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 6-0, 2.74. 64 K, 49.1 IP.
José Méndez (MCG). 3-2, 2.57. 0.93 WHIP.
Joseíto Muñoz (POR). 2-0, 2.55. 46 K, 2.48 FIP.
David Price (HOM). 2-1, 2.90. 0.94 WHIP.
Charles Radbourn (OTT). 3-1, 1.57. 2.28 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 2-3, 3.24. 50 K, 2.53 FIP, 1.5 WAR.
Tom Seaver (MEM). 2-1, 1.59.
J.M. Ward (PHI). 4-2, 3.51. .213 BABIP.
Jim Whitney (MCG). 1-1, 3.40. 54 K, 0.86 WHIP.
Smokey Joe Wood (KAN). 3-0, 2.23. 47 K, 0.69 WHIP, 2.31 FIP.

#Relievers

Rate stats still want another week or two. The saves and holds:

Rod Beck (SFS). 1-2, 4.09. 7 Sv.
Dellin Betances (HOD). 2 Sv, 4 Hld.
Jack Billingham (POR). 3.60. 7 Sv.
Chad Bradford (DET). 2-2, 3.68. 5 Hld.
Jeurys Familia (LAA). 3.21. 5 Hld.
Eric Gagné (BRK). 0.75. 8 Sv.
Andrew Miller (MEM). 1.26. 6 Sv.
Jonathan Papelbon (MCG). 3.27. 7 Sv.
Eustaquio Pedroso (MCG). 4.87. 4 Hld.
Vito Tamulis (NYG). 3.38. 6 Hld.
Kent Tekulve (NYG). 2-0, 4.76. 5 Hld.
Brian Wilson (NYG). 1.74. 9 Sv.

Note that the Gothams may be back on track in their quest to rebuild their bullpen.

Two arms have yet to allow a run at all: Birmingham’s Kerry Ligtenberg over 16.1 innings, with 21 strikeouts and 4 hits allowed, and Chicago’s Joe Horlen over 20.2.

#Hardest Shots

Birmingham’s Eddie Mathews hit the hardest ball of the season so far, a 126 mph solo homerun. Mathews doesn’t hit many balls, but at least that one was a freaking rocket. Cleveland‘s Ed Bailey and Birmingham’s Bobby Grich also hit balls over 120 mph.

The hardest out belonged to a pitcher: Jim Whitney (Miami) flew out to center at 118 mph.

#Injuries

Houston‘s outfield took another hit–with Tony Gwynn already sidelined, the eternally underappreciated Jim Wynn will miss 2-3 weeks.

Frank Grant of the San Francisco Sea Lions is out a couple weeks and some other important names (Ottawa’s Gary Peters, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, Kansas City‘s Rube Foster, and Homestead’s Ricardo Rincón) will each miss about a week.

Year III Season Preview: Memphis Red Sox

State of the Franchise

team logo

The Red Sox have never contended. They have always had bats; this off-season they’ve moved more aggressively than any other team in the WBL to address their rotation needs.

First, the bats: Ted Williams continues to sit barely outside the truly elite of the league, slashing 303/423/616 at 22. Manny Ramírez hit 46 home runs, Gabby Hartnett hit 41 from behind the plate, David Ortiz hit 34 in barely 100 games, Reggie Smith hit 34 more. And all of that on a team that lost 89 games.

There is a thin line between acting aggressively and panic. Memphis sold Mookie Betts, a breakout OF, to Brooklyn for Don Drysdale and Red Ruffing. Then it sold Dobie Moore — a 20-year-old shortstop who had just made the AL All Rookie 2nd Team, and the only real hope the middle infield has produced in years — to Los Angeles for Tom Seaver.

So the rotation now reads Stubby Overmire, Drysdale, Seaver, Ruffing and Len Barker. That’s a massive upgrade to the flailing of the past. The question is whether it will be enough.

2001 Revisited

A year ago we noted the growing optimism in Memphis, called it totally unwarranted. The Red Sox went 73-89 (worse than the prior year) and finished 5th, 17 games out.

The offense wasn’t the reason. Ramírez posted a 1.024 OPS and led the club in homers in only 452 plate appearances. Ortiz hit 280/371/676 and took first base away from Bill White. Williams turned in what will someday look like an off year and won the organizational MVP.

So that leaves the pitching as the culprit. The best case had Shane Bieber, the winter’s prize free agent, joining Stubby Overmire at the front of the rotation; Bieber made 8 starts, posted a 7.36 and blew out his elbow. Again. Jon Lester collapsed, and the rest of the SP auditions failed loudly (Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, we’re looking at you). Heath Bell finished in the mid 6s. Overmire remained the best arm Memphis had, and while he has his supporters, soft tossers are always in danger of regression. Still, a sub-5.00 ERA in the 2001 WBL remains impressive.

One prediction landed clean, but still could hurt. We asked whether Moore was the real thing and what would become of Vern Stephens if he was. Moore was real, Stephens was traded in July — and 6 months later Moore was traded too.

Key Changes

In: Xander Bogaerts (LAA); John Briggs (BRK); Don Drysdale (BRK); Red Ruffing (BRK); Tom Seaver (LAA)

Out: Mookie Betts (BRK); Billy Bryan (BRK); Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (LAA); Dobie Moore (LAA)

Opening Day Rookies: Xander Bogaerts

Best Case for 2002

The new arms clear their 2001 lines. Drysdale is 22 and threw 186 innings with a 1.28 WHIP for Brooklyn; Seaver is 24 and struck out 135; Ruffing regains his prior form. I mean … this could be a solid rotation.

Behind that, the Red Sox just need health. Ramírez and Ortiz combined for about a season and a half of playing time; give them a full one each. John Briggs, bought in the spring off a 276/377/557 year in Brooklyn, is the sort of hitter scouts keep predicting will stop hitting and who keeps hitting — and if he does, the outfield rotation with Reggie Smith could prove pleasant, but complicated, especially with the somewhat surprising presence of Andrew Benintendi (343/450/572 at AA).

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little more control and they may have their closer.

Memphis doesn’t need a miracle here. It needs the pitchers it just bought to be roughly who they already are, one tick better.

Worst Case for 2002

Drysdale and Seaver both sat around league average last year — the WBL’s collective ERA was 5.38 — and around league average, while an improvement on Memphis’ history, is not what they thought they were buying.

The middle infield is … weak. Xander Bogaerts has never played a WBL game, Adam Everett is a decent glove, but nothing else. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller worked a league-leading 74 games and is the closest thing to a stopper, but that’s a heavy workload.

Skel Roach struck out 44 men in 40 innings while walking 40 of them. A little less control and they may have a walking disaster of unprecedented proportions.

Key Questions

  • Can Tom Terrific justify his cost? A 5.81 ERA in Los Angeles is forgivable in that yard and that run environment, and it is also not what a franchise shortstop is supposed to buy. How Memphis feels in October runs almost entirely through whether the 24-year-old becomes a front-line starter.
  • Who pitches the 9th? Memphis spent 2 losing seasons correctly selling relievers — Jonathan Papelbon went to Miami last August — on the sound theory that a team going nowhere shouldn’t hoard a closer. That logic has now expired. There are 3 arms the club trusts (or, in Roach’s case, tolerates) and no established one to finish games.
  • What does the outfield surplus buy? 4 of the 6 ranked prospects in this system play the outfield, on a big-league club already carrying Williams, Smith, Briggs, Ramírez and Benintendi. That’s less a logjam than a bank account. Betts was the first withdrawal; the next one is yet to be determined.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CHartnett B · Wilkins
1BOrtiz B
2BLeMahieu C · Pedroia
SSBogaerts · Everett
3BBoggs C · Shaw
LFWilliams A · Benintendi
CFSmith C
RFBriggs A
DHRamírez A
SPOvermire C · Drysdale C · Seaver F · Ruffing · Barker D
RPMiller B · Bell F · Roach C · Benitez · Fingers · de la Cruz

Nobody in that bullpen carries the closer’s tag, which was a deliberate choice for 2 losing years and is, for the first time, a problem. Also, Ted Williams keeps asking to pitch. He talked his way into 3 innings in 2000 and gave up 3 runs, which appears to have settled nothing.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Ted WilliamsCF Hack Wilson
Batting EyeLF Ted WilliamsCF Roy Thomas
Contact3B Wade BoggsRF Bill Buckner
Running SpeedSS Herman LongSS Bud Harrelson
Base StealingLF Andrew BenintendiRF Tom Brown; LF Joe Kelley
IF DefenseSS Herman Long2B Jonathan Schoop
OF DefenseLF Andrew BenintendiCF Dain Clay
StuffRP Heath BellRP Justin Miller
ControlSP Jameson TaillonSP Carl Mays
VelocityRP Heath Bell; RP Andrew MillerRP Jensen Lewis

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (16)22LFJoe Kelley
2 (19)21SPJosh Beckett
3 (23)21LFCarl Yastrzemski
4 (39)24LFJoe Rudi
5 (70)221BJoe Cunningham
6 (81)21RFBill Buckner

Others: P Mickey McDermott, OF Jim Rice, P Pete Richert, OF Roy Thomas.

6 ranked prospects, 4 of them outfielders, which is either an embarrassment of riches or an accounting problem depending on the day. Joe Kelley leads at 16th in baseball, Carl Yastrzemski sits 4 spots behind him, and Joe Rudi and Bill Buckner are behind them.

The most interesting name isn’t an outfielder. Josh Beckett, 21 and ranked 19th, arrived from Miami last August as the return for Papelbon. Below the ranked list, Pete Richert took the organizational Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and 17-year-old Mickey McDermott is the youngest arm in the system.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeTim Wakefield, 37Mickey McDermott, 17
HeightDerek Lowe, 6’6″Hack Wilson, 5’6″
OPSDavid Ortiz, 1.047Jason Bartlett, .567 (AA)
HRManny Ramírez, 46Dain Clay, 1 (A)
SBRoy Thomas, 38 (A)–
WAR (bat)Joe Cunningham, 4.3 (AA)Bud Harrelson, −0.9 (AA)
WStubby Overmire, 13–
SVAndrew Miller, 6–
ERABill Husted, 2.92 (A)Red Ruffing, 6.90
WAR (pit)Stubby Overmire, 4.2David Bush, 0.5

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 91.4: Off Season Review – Memphis Red Sox

73 - 89, .451 pct.
5th in Bill James Division, 17 GB

Overall

With low expectations come … well … another poor season in Memphis.

There are some decent pieces to build around here, but there is some ways to go. There is also a bit of a surplus of talent, especially in the OF, so some trade possibilities to hang in the air. Like so many WBL teams, the Red Sox struggle on the mound–I mean, they struggle everywhere, but it’s much easier to see the pieces coming together offensively than, especially, in their rotation.

Everything in Memphis revolves around Ted Williams, and how to build the franchise around the infinitely talented 22 year old.

What Went Right

Ted Williams had what felt like might qualify as an off-year by the time his career is over and done with. That still meant slashing 303/423/616, revealing a rare mixture of power and strike zone control.

Manny Ramírez improved on a rough initial year, leading the team with 46 homeruns and 110 RBIs with an OPS of 1.024. At 26, Ramírez should be entering his true prime, and while his lack of defensive skill pushes him towards a full time DH role, if he can maintain that level of performance, he’s a rare talent. The only caution is that he only saw 450ish PAs this season.

David Ortiz saw even less time, but hit even better: a 1.047 OPS and 34 homeruns in 100 games, displacing Bill White at 1B.

And while we’re on the topic of great performances in limited appearances, mention must be made of Lefty O’Doul (1.059 OPS) and Hack Wilson (1.036), each of whom have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training.

Billy Bryan was one of the best offensive backup catchers in the league, slashing 257/327/621 in support of Gabby Hartnett, who was pretty solid himself, posting an .879 OPS with good power.

And then we get pretty thin offensively: Reggie Smith and Mookie Betts were good enough, with mid .800s OPS numbers, but one or both of them need to improve, especially with the performance of the late season call ups. Betts, especially, may have value on the trade market.

On the mound, both Stubby Overmire and Len Barker racked up enough innings to generate decent WAR numbers, but were honestly not that great. That may be a little cruel on Overmire, who is clearly the best the Red Sox have to offer.

Andrew Miller was solid in a WBL leading 74 games, so there is value just in being rubber armed with a live arm, even if his walk rate is too high for comfort.

Tommy de la Cruz and Jameson Taillon were relatively effective in limited work. Taillon blew out his elbow, and won’t be back for about a year, effectively missing all of next season.

And then there is Skel Roach. 44 strikeouts in 40 innings and only 19 hits allowed … but 40 walks. So that can’t survive very long.

ALL STARS

Ted Williams
MAJOR AWARDS

Andrew Miller, AL Team of the Year
RECOGNITIONS

Andrew Miller, AL All Rookie Team; AL 25 & Under Team; AL 23 & Under Team
Dobie Moore, AL All Rookie 2nd Team; AL 21 & Under Team
David Ortiz, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
Skel Roach, AL All Rookie 2nd Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Ted Williams, MVP
Andrew Miller, Pitcher of the Year
David Ortiz, Heart & Soul
Skel Roach, Fan Favorite

Pete Richert, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Lefty O'Doul, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Dobie Moore struggled a bit in his rookie year, but at 20 he has a lot of room to improve. There’s really not a lot else that went wrong, just a range of players who were fine: Wade Boggs, Bill White, and DJ LeMahieu leap to mind.

Whereas on the mound … Jon Lester and David Bush were pretty bad as starters, especially Lester. And major free agent signing Shane Bieber made only 8 poor starts before a long-term injury. Bieber should be back early in the season.

The Red Sox keep giving Sadie McMahon, Eddie Cicotte, Nixey Callahan, and Derek Lowe opportunities. And they keep fumbling, combining for a 4-8 record and ERA’s well over 6.00.

Heath Bell stumbled badly over the season, ending with a 3-5 record and an ERA in the mid 6’s.

Transactions

March

OF Sammy Sosa for C Gabby Hartnett, P Rollie Fingers & 4th Round Pick.

A massive, massive win. Sosa struggled mightily in Memphis, went back to the House of David … and struggled mightily. On the other hand, Hartnett looks like the Red Sox catcher for the foreseeable future.

OF David Justice, IF Ozzie Albies, 2nd Round Pick to BBB for IF Bill Buckner & OF Joe Rudi.

Sure. I mean, we can’t evaluate this one for a few years.

July

The season was over for Memphis at this point, but there weren’t any real buyers, so there wasn’t much activity.

IF Vern Stephens to BRG for 4th Round Pick.

This seemed to make sense: Stephens was having a miserable season, and the Red Sox had already decided that Dobie Moore was their future SS.

August

P Jonathan Papelbon & 4th Round Pick to MCG for P Josh Beckett, OF Roy Thomas & 3rd Round Pick.

Makes sense. Papelbon was excellent, and netted a strong return from the Cuban Giants.

Positional Overview

C

Gabby Hartnett came over and seems to have seized the position, which is quite good news for Memphis. Look for Billy Bryan to back him up again, with Rick Wilkins pressing for time from below.

There are some options: Brian McCann and Jason Varitek have some talent, and Dobie Moore can even play here in a pinch.

1B

David Ortiz‘ explosion really leaves Bill White flapping in the wind, which is a shame: White has been a quality contributor, and really deserves better. Best bet is the Red Sox shop White, and Ortiz holds this down until either Bill Buckner or Joe Cunningham are ready.

There are a ton of other options as well, most notably George Scott, Travis Shaw, and even young phenom Carl Yastrzemski.

2B

It seems that DJ LeMahieu may have taken this role for his own–LeMahieu clearly outperformed Dustin Pedroia, and really his only competition is Dobie Moore, who is probably headed for shortstop.

SS

The problem with Dobie Moore is his youth and his glove. Everything else looks incredible.

If he falters, we’re likely to see Woody English or Francisco Lindor given a chance.

So, there is optimism, but you could also see this as a very large question mark.

3B

Wade Boggs was … mediocre this year, but he will still be the 3B at the end of the day.

It’s not clear what happens next here, although young Candy Jim Taylor certainly shows promise.

LF/RF

LF is Ted Williams, period.

RF is a little less settled, but is likely Mookie Betts, with occasional support from Manny Ramírez. The complications here are the youth, with Lefty O’Doul, Dwight Evans, Joe Kelley, and most importantly Carl Yastrzemski, all pushing for playing time.

CF

Reggie Smith is far better than he gets credit for. That may not be enough as Hack Wilson is breathing down his neck pushing for playing time.

DH

Manny Ramírez most of the time. But, again, there is the Lefty O’Doul issue.

SP

Stubby Overmire leads, and then … well … then it is mostly question marks, although Len Barker and Dean Chance are favored.

The scouts keep pushing Eddie Cicotte, Sadie McMahon, and Nixey Callahan, but the fans don’t appreciate their results to date. If the Red Sox decide to give youth a chance, Josh Beckett, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jim Kaat could get a look.

RP

More uncertainty.

Heath Bell, Armando Benitez, and the incomprehensible Skel Roach may get first opportunities, along with the impressive Tommy de la Cruz. Rollie Fingers may get a look in the Spring as well.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 2
5th Round: 1

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Maybe a middle infielder. Then, more pitching.

TWIWBL 88.3: Rookie Teams of the Year

Two teams per league, with preference given to more playing time this year over future potential. No DH.

#WBL All Rookie First Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CTom Haller (BAL)Bill Dickey (PHI)
1BJimmie Foxx (SFS)Joe Harris (KCM)
2BCharlie Gehringer (DET)César Hernández (PHI)
SSCal Ripken Jr (BAL)Judy Johnson (HOM)
3BAndy Pafko (BBB/MCG)Chris Sabo (IND)
LFJuan Beníquez (DET)Adam Dunn (IND)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)John Briggs (BRK)
RFAl Kaline (DET)George Foster (IND)
SPJim Whitney (BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (SFS)
Walter Ball (POR)
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
RPAndrew Miller (MEM)
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
Elmer Smith (LAA)
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
Karl Spooner (HOD)
Mike Kume (KCM)

Rookies are interesting.

We run the full gamut here, from the MVP possibilities of Turkey Stearnes to players who ended the year in the minors, or, like César Hernández, project as fringe players at best. Tom Haller, Juan Beníquez, and Joe Harris are all on the wrong side of 30.

The spread of talent makes some comparisons misleading: you would much rather be San Francisco with Jimmie Foxx, Stearnes, and Bump Hadley than Indianapolis with Chris Sabo, Adam Dunn, and George Foster.

#WBL All Rookie Second Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CAJ Pierzynski (LAA)Dick Dietz (NYG)
1BDavid Ortiz (MEM)JP Arencibia (BBB)
2BFrank Grant (HOD/SFS)Craig Reynolds (HOD)
SSDobie Moore (MEM)Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (CAG)Josh Donaldson (OTT)
LFRocky Colavito (CAG)Elliott Maddox (NYY/HOU)
CFJulio Rodríguez (MCG)Charles Rogan (PHI)
RFIchiro Suzuki (LAA)Sam Thompson (OTT)
SPTony Brizzolara (NYY)
Tom Seaver (LAA)
Kenshin Kawakami (MCG)
Charles Rogan (PHI)
Ice Box Chamberlain (HOU)
Kyle Peterson (HOD)
RPFirpo Marberry (CLE)
Skel Roach (MEM)
Billy Hoeft (DET)
Brad Kilby (PHI)
Mike LaCoss (IND)
Fred Fussell (BBB)

Note Bullet Joe Rogan‘s well warranted appearance at 2 positions.

David Ortiz, Julio Rodríguez, Rogan, and Ice Box Chamberlain were the class of this group. Those 4, Frank Grant, Dobie Moore, Freddie Lindstrom, Ichiro Suzuki, and Tom Seaver are the most likely to be future stars–that’s a lot of potential over there in the American League.

TWIWBL 88.2: Teams of the Year By Age

The overall All-WBL Teams can be found here.

In this post, we’ll slowly carve people off those lists as we get younger, beginning with the under 25’s. As we get younger, future potential will begin to be more of a thing.

A full lineup, with DH, plus 3 starters and 3 relievers for each. We’ll start by relisting the overall selections, then new entries for each group will be bolded.

#WBL Teams of the Year

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BJim Thome (28, MCG)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BEddie Collins (28, CAG)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSArky Vaughan (27, CLE)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Ron Cey (27, BRK)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Aaron Judge (27, PHI)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Willie Stargell (31, HOM)
SPLefty Grove (27, SFS)
José Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (26, KCM)
Eric Gagne (27, BRK)

#WBL 25 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CMickey Cochrane (25, SFS)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BHank Greenberg (24, DET)Jeff Bagwell (24, HOU)
2BGrant Johnson (25, HOU/NYY)Roberto Alomar (24, OTT)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Ernie Banks (25, HOD)
3BEvan Longoria (24, CLE)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFBabe Ruth (25, NYY)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Rick Monday (24, OTT)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Jim Whitney (24, BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
A. Rube Foster (24, KCM)
RPKen Howell (24, SFS)
Andrew Miller (23, MEM)
Rod Beck (24, SFS)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Andrew Chafin (25, HOU)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)

#WBL 23 & Under Teams

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1BEddie Murray (22, BAL)Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BFrank Grant (22, HOD/SFS)Joe Morgan (22, IND)
SSCal Ripken, Jr (23, BAL)Carlos Correa (23, HOU)
3BJimmie Foxx (22, SFS)Albert Pujols (22, KCM)
LFFrank Robinson (22, BAL)Jim Wynn (23, HOU)
CFTurkey Stearnes (22, SFS)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFMickey Mantle (22, NYY)Larry Walker (23, OTT)
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)Richie Hebner (23, HOD)
SPJosé Méndez (23, MCG)
Bump Hadley (23, SFS)
Brett Anderson (22, LAA)
Luis Padrón (22, IND)
Toad Ramsey (23, HOU)
Smokey Joe Wood (22, KCM)
RPAndrew Miller (23, MEM)
Goose Gossage (23, NYY)
Julio Teheran (22, LAA)
Terry Forster (22, BRK)
Fred Cambria (23, PHI)
Ted Kennedy (22, PHI)

300 PA Minimums for batters, with 1 exception: Murray only had 145 PAs–1B in the AL just did not have a lot of youth.

#WBL 21 & Under

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (21, MCG)Josh Gibson (21, HOM)
1B—Rusty Staub (21, OTT)
2BMartín Dihigo (19, MCG)—
SSDobie Moore (20, MEM)Judy Johnson (18, HOM)
3BFreddie Lindstrom (20, CAG)Ron Santo (21, HOD)
LFAlejandro Oms (21, MCG)Sherry Magee (21, PHI)
CFKen Griffey Jr (20, POR)Oscar Charleston (21, IND)
RFBryce Harper (20, BAL)—
DHTy Cobb (21, DET)—
SPWalter Johnson (20, POR)
Bob Feller (20, CLE)
Joseíto Muñoz (20, POR)
Ice Box Chamberlain (19, HOU)
JM Ward (20, PHI)
Sandy Koufax (21, BRK)
RPPete Conway (21, DET)
Tom Williams (20, CAG)
Billy Hoeft (19, DET)
Pete Donohue (21, NYG)
Edward Nolan (19, IND)
Vida Blue (21, HOU)

All praises to Ty Cobb, Josh Gibson, and Oscar Charleston for remaining on the list this far. The relievers dip into some rarely used arms, but of the rest, only Freddie Lindstrom was a late-season callup.

There really isn’t an all-teenager team: the only change from the teens above would be the addition of Chicago’s Cristóbal Torriente, perhaps the worst offensive player in the league this year in CF, but surprisingly effective in a few mound appearances.

One more, largely for fun

#WBL Over 30 Team

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CEd Bailey (36, DET/CLE)Jim Pagliaroni (32, MEM/BBB)
1BCarlos Delgado (32, LAA)Paul Konerko (34, CAG/BBB)
2BRogers Hornsby (34, NYY)Ryne Sandberg (33, HOD)
SSBobby Wallace (34, BAL/DET)Ozzie Smith (30, KCM)
3B—Jim Ray Hart (30, NYG)
LFOscar Gamble (32, DET)Don Buford (32, LAA/NYG)
CF—Dave Henderson (33, IND)
RFKiki Cuyler (32, POR)Albert Belle (32, BBB)
DHGavvy Cravath (36, BAL)Joey Votto (32, IND)
SPAndy Pettitte (33, NYY)
Connie Johnson (34, BAL/DET)
Charlie Root (31, DET)
Gaylord Perry (33, NYG)
Eppa Rixey (31, IND)
Cliff Lee (30, HOM)
RPJonathan Papelbon (31, MEM/MCG)
Joe Nathan (31, LAA/SFS)
Buddy Groom (37, BAL)
Lee Smith (34, HOD/KCM)
Bob Howry (34, PHI)
Josh Lindblom (31, HOM)

Only 3 names from the All-League Teams (Baily, Konerko, and Lee Smith), reflecting on just how young the league is. This is a very wide range from some very strong performers who are expected to keep it up for a while (those 3, Pettitte, Hornsby, some others) to folks like Dave Henderson and Kiki Cuyler, who are just barely hanging onto their roster spots.

TWIWBL 87.15: Teams of the Year

We’re doing 3 teams for each league, with players color coded by their Tier Level (S Tier, A Tier, B Tier, C Tier), with selections for each position, 3 starters, 2 bullpen arms, and a closer.

Just a glance shows the differences in the leagues: you want offense, look at the AL, you want pitching, the NL. That’s a generality, and like all such, not fully accurate: the NL actually has more S Tier bats, but the AL is overall more top heavy offensively.

San Francisco, predictably, leads the way with 12 selections while the rivalry between the Black Yankees and Cleveland continues, with the Bill James Division heavyweights having 8 each.

#AL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CEd Bailey (DET/CLE)Mickey Cochrane (SFS)Curt Blefary (BAL)
1BJim Thome (MCG)Lance Berkman (CLE)Jack Clark (SFS)
2BEddie Collins (CAG)Rogers Hornsby (NYY)Miller Huggins (BAL)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Cal Ripken, Jr. (BAL)Dick Lundy (SFS)
3BEvan Longoria (CLE)Mike Schmidt (NYY)Jimmie Foxx (SFS)
LFBabe Ruth (NYY)Kal Daniels (LAA)Frank Robinson (BAL)
CFTurkey Stearnes (SFS)Tris Speaker (CLE)Mike Trout (LAA)
RFMickey Mantle (NYY)Joe Jackson (CAG)Yasiel Puig (MCG)
DHTy Cobb (DET)Lou Gehrig (NYY)Reggie Jackson (SFS)
SPLefty Grove (SFS)
José Méndez (MCG)
Jim Whitney (BBB/MCG)
Bump Hadley (SFS)
Andy Pettitte (NYY)
Eddie Plank (SFS)
Ed Walsh (CAG)
Brett Anderson (LAA)
Ron Guidry (NYY)
RPKen Howell (SFS)
Andrew Miller (MEM)
Ross Reynolds (LAA)
Al Smith (CLE)
Firpo Marberry (CLE)
Ron Reed (CLE)
CLRod Beck (SFS)Goose Gossage (NYY)Jonathan Papelbon (MEM/MCG)

I do wonder if this points to how fragile Cleveland is. The Spiders are one of only 2 teams to make the playoffs in both WBL seasons, but if you were to pick names likely to fade off this list, Arky Vaughan, Evan Longoria, Al Smith, and Firpo Marberry would jump out.

It also shows just how top heavy Los Angeles is: 2 S-Tier players (plus Brett Anderson and Ross Reynolds) with nothing to show for it. At the other end, there’s Detroit–the other team to make the playoffs each year–with only a single player (the incomparable Ty Cobb) listed, further reinforcing the Wolverines as having done it with a true team effort (although this was also quite close: Terry Adams, Al Kaline, and Hank Greenberg were all in contention for 3rd Team honors).

And the less said about Memphis, the better.

#NL

PosFirst TeamSecond TeamThird Team
CJosh Gibson (HOM)Gary Carter (OTT)Mike Piazza (BRK)
1BPaul Konerko (CAG/BBB)Will Clark (NYG)Jeff Bagwell (HOU)
2BRoberto Alomar (OTT)Joe Morgan (IND)Ryne Sandberg (HOD)
SSErnie Banks (HOD)Carlos Correa (HOU)Alex Rodríguez (OTT)
3BRon Cey (BRK)Albert Pujols (KCM)Scott Rolen (PHI)
LFJim Wynn (HOU)Ryan Braun (BBB)Rick Reichardt (HOM)
CFOscar Charleston (IND)Willie Mays (NYG)Charles Rogan (PHI)
RFAaron Judge (PHI)Larry Walker (OTT)Tony Gwynn (HOU)
DHWillie Stargell (HOM)Benny Kauff (NYG)Rick Monday (OTT)
SPLuis Padrón (IND)
Toad Ramsey (HOU)
A. Rube Foster (KCM)
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK)
Smokey Joe Wood (KCM)
Fernando Valenzuela (BRK)
Roger Clemens (HOU)
Hardie Henderson (PHI)
Orel Hershiser (BRK)
RPLee Smith (HOD/KCM)
Eddie Guardado (KCM)
Robb Nen (NYG/HOM)
Terry Forster (BRK)
Andrew Chafin (HOU)
Fred Cambria (PHI)
CLEric Gagné (BRK)Josh Lindblom (HOM)Bob Howry (PHI)

Brooklyn and Kansas City’s pitching is so strong. And imagine just how bad Ottawa’s pitching had to be, given their offensive representation.

Indianapolis has 3 S Tier players, giving them perhaps the most dominant nucleus in the league to build around. Kansas City has 4 S Tier players, but 2 of them are relievers, so most GM’s would prefer the ABC’s group.

And there are some league-wide deficiencies, especially at 1B and LF. Jim Wynn is a nice player, but the best in the league?

Both of Birmingham’s entrants were brought over in trade … but they also lost Jim Whtiney in those deals.

#Team by Team

Portland had nobody–nobody–who was deemed top 3 in the AL at their position. Ouch.

Baltimore. 4: Curt Blefary, Miller Huggins, Cal Ripken, Jr, Frank Robinson.
Birmingham, 2: Ryan Braun, Paul Konerko.
Brooklyn. 7: Ron Cey, Terry Forster, Eric Gagne, Orel Hershiser, Mike Piazza, Fernando Valenzuela, Smokey Joe Williams
Chicago. 3: Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Ed Walsh.
Cleveland. 8: Ed Bailey, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Firpo Marberry, Ron Reed, Al Smith, Tris Speaker, Arky Vaughan.
Detroit. 1: Ty Cobb.
Homestead. 5: Josh Gibson, Josh Lindblom, Robb Nen, Rick Reichardt , Willie Stargell.
Houston. 7: Jeff Bagwell, Andrew Chafin, Roger Clemens, Carlos Correa, Tony Gwynn, Toad Ramsey, Jim Wynn.
Indianapolis. 3: Oscar Charleston, Joe Morgan, Luis Padrón.
Kansas City. 5: A. Rube Foster, Eddie Guardado, Albert Pujols, Lee Smith, Smokey Joe Wood.
Los Angeles. 4: Brett Anderson, Kal Daniels, Ross Reynolds, Mike Trout.
Memphis. 1: Andrew Miller.
Miami. 5: José Méndez, Jonathan Papelbon, Yasiel Puig, Jim Thome, Jim Whitney.
New York Black Yankees. 8: Lou Gehrig, Goose Gossage, Ron Guidry, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Andy Pettitte, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt.
New York Gothams. 3: Will Clark, Benny Kauff , Willie Mays.
Ottawa. 5: Roberto Alomar , Gary Carter, Rick Monday, Alex Rodríguez, Larry Walker.
Philadelphia. 7: Fred Cambria, Hardie Henderson, Bob Howry, Aaron Judge, Charles Rogan, Scott Rolen.
Portland. 0.
San Francisco. 12: Rod Beck, Jack Clark, Mickey Cochrane, Jimmie Foxx, Lefty Grove, Bump Hadley, Ken Howell, Reggie Jackson, Dick Lundy, Eddie Plank, Turkey Stearnes.
Wandering House of David. 2: Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg.

TWIWBL 87.12: The Relievers & the Setups

On to the pitchers! Same Tier system.

Here we have everyone with at least 30 IP, and no more than 2 games started or 5 saves: essentially, pitchers who got some usage, but were not used as swing-starters or closers. A few other relievers who were clearly not closers were added despite having more than 5 saves.

This is an incredibly volatile populations, and success in one year should not be seen as a predictor for future seasons. Ron Reed, I’m looking at you. It’s also hard to find good bullpen arms: there are a ton more names in Tiers C and D than above.

Our usual practices prevail: bold for top 3 and italics for bottom 3.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
NLKCMEddie Guardado262-32.53470.992 Sv; 10 H
1.7 BB/9
4.7 K/BB
NLHOD/
KCM
Lee Smith345-22.65500.756 Sv; 12 H
2.78 FIP

Lee Smith was probably the best overall reliever in the game, obviously good enough to be a closer, but a devastating arm in the late innings. His teammate, Eddie Guardado, was just quietly undeniable all season.

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
NLPHIFred Cambria235-13.04391.142 Sv; 7 H
5.5 K/9
NLHOUAndrew Chafin252-33.77471.104 Sv; 7 H
NLBRKTerry Forster221-24.25471.212 Sv; 16 H
2.92 FIP
NLNYG/
HOM
Robb Nen324-53.32551.0210 Sv; 13 H

Terry Forster may have an argument to be nudged up, but that ERA is distracting. Andrew Chafin was steady all season in an otherwise tumultuous Houston pen, while Fred Cambria just ran under the radar end to end.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
NLPHIPedro Feliciano330-24.66411.049 H
.200 BA
5.6 K/9
NLBRKTrevor Hildenberger276-35.03531.0111 Sv; 7 H
ALSFSKen Howell245-12.79521.266 Sv; 15 H
NLPHITed Kennedy226-44.05601.175 Sv; 15 H
NLKCMMike Kume304-11.95221.08.187 BA
0.3 HR/9
1.5 K/BB
NLNYGMike Norris364-54.34521.246 Sv; 12 H
ALMEMAndrew Miller238-84.21741.296 Sv; 12 H
—CAG/
BBB
Akinori Otsuka338-32.50451.257 Sv; 7 H
ALLAARoss Reynolds262-13.56331.301 Sv; 6 H
0.2 HR/9
2.92 FIP
ALCLEAl Smith260-02.87331.476 H
0.3 HR/9
5.5 BB/9
3.07 FIP
NLHODKarl Spooner243-35.01371.046 Sv; 6 H

Of this group, Mike Kume looks like the most likely to be a fluke–it’s hard to sustain that kind of success with that low of a K rate. Al Smith‘s debut was fantastic, but he may be more suited to be a lefty specialist. Ross Reynolds was strong all season, and should see an expanded role next season.

We should also mention Mike Norris, who followed last year’s stellar season with a very solid one and the eternally dependable Ken Howell.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
NLINDJack Billingham245-25.15521.382 Sv; 9 H
ALMEMTommy de la Cruz341-56.12361.225 Sv; 3 H
NLKCMFrank DiPino263-13.81481.342 Sv; 9 H
NLHOUJohn Franco273-34.83561.371 Sv; 15 H
ALCLECory Gearrin275-13.22461.358 Sv; 10 H
NLHOMMichael Jackson331-75.67561.431 Sv; 21 H
2.0 BB/9
NLPHIBrad Kilby273-36.20491.242 Sv; 14 H
3.4 HR/9
1.2 BB/9
7.7 K/BB
ALCLEFirpo Marberry287-04.83511.333 Sv; 13 H
ALDETBuddy Napier322-35.04381.322 Sv; 8 H
6.0 K/9
ALCLERon Reed344-64.71441.262 Sv; 6 H
ALMEMSkel Roach292-14.31411.493 Sv; 12 H
.143 BA
0 HR/9
9.1 BB/9
10 K/9
1.1 K/BB
NLOTTBJ Ryan282-34.61561.392 Sv; 16 H
10.2 K/9
ALCAG/
NYY
Hoyt Wilhelm314-44.72591.353 Sv; 12 H

This group gets a little more interesting: Michael Jackson had a few horrible outings, but was otherwise quite steady for Homestead while Brad Kilby was only a few homeruns from moving up a level or 2.

And then there is Skel Roach. Unhittable. Dominant strikeout pitcher. And can’t find the strike zone ever, allowing over a walk per inning. That means there’s huge potential there, but how often does someone who throws this hard master their command?

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
NLHODEd Bauta284-53.41551.458 Sv; 8 H
ALDETChad Bradford308-75.32641.4010 Sv; 10 H
NLINDClay Carroll311-34.66531.412 Sv; 10 H
ALNYYRheal Cormier351-45.40551.5618 H
—NYG/
DET
Steve Howe272-16.02641.399 H
4.4 K/BB
—POR/
PHI
Mark Melancon317-25.16591.493 Sv; 7 H
.310 BA
.361 BABIP
ALBALGregg Olsen243-45.44411.724 Sv; 8 H
.313 BA
.379 BABIP
NLHOMRick Ownbey283-14.33441.377 H
—NYG/
DET
Troy Percival323-45.99641.401 Sv; 11 H
3.9 HR/9
7.74 FIP
ALDETJack Wilson236-15.43381.575 H
5.6 BB/9
1.7 K/BB

Mark “The Vulture” Melancon continues to win at a rate his statistics don’t support while Rheal Cormier was another victim of a few poor outings in an otherwise solid season. You also see all of Detroit’s struggles here: while both Troy Percival and Steve Howe pitched better after their arrival, their pen remained weaker than hoped for even with the changes.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeW-LERAGWHIPOther
ALMEMHeath Bell323-56.53581.532 Sv; 8 H
NLHOUBrad Lidge284-36.26431.576 H
ALMCGBraden Looper262-25.90471.553 Sv; 10 H
NLINDRob Murphy273-85.66501.622 Sv; 13 H
7.49 FIP
ALNYYDavid Robertson253-36.94441.735 H
.311 BA
.348 BABIP
9.4 K/9
ALCLE/
SFS
Huston Street246-36.27441.501 Sv; 9 H
ALBAL/
POR
John Wetteland241-107.96531.505 Sv; 9 H
3.5 HR/9
7.82 FIP

Why Portland kept trotting John Wetteland out there is a mystery that may remain forever unsolved. He was awful, despite an obviously live arm.

Huston Street pitched far better for San Francisco than Cleveland, and David Robertson‘s arm is clearly better than his initial WBL performance.

TWIWBL 83.1: Year 2, Week 26

September 23rd

And then there was one … week to go.

#Awards

Houston‘s Jim O’Rourke continues a great recovery from a disappointing performance last season with a National League Player of the Week Award. O’Rourke hit .550 in the penultimate week of the season as the Colt 45’s try to clinch their first Marvin Miller Division title.

In the AL, the often-overlooked Lou Gehrig picked up the Award with the Black Yankee‘s 1B hitting .400 with 6 homeruns.

#Team Performance

#AL

The Black Yankees had a good week in the Bill James Division, moving from a virtual tie with Cleveland into a 1.5 game lead. The Detroit Wolverines, however, have picked a bad time to struggle, and they now hold only a half-game lead over Miami for the final Wild Card spot.

It’s an interesting final week on the schedule: the Black Yankees visit San Francisco in a likely playoff series preview, and then close out the year against the much-improved of late Baltimore Black Sox. Cleveland probably has the easiest schedule, hosting the lowly Memphis Red Sox, and then ending the year at Miami, who play Detroit before that series with the Spiders.

Miami not only has their future in their own hands, they also could decide the Black Yankees / Spiders race.

#NL

With 96 victories in the Effa Manley Division, the Brooklyn Royal Giants have an outside shot at 100 and, with a 5 game lead, Philadelphia looks to have locked up a Wild Card spot.

Houston has a clear path to the Marvin Miller Division crown on paper, with a 4 game lead and series left against the New York Gothams and the Wandering House of David. The final Wild Card spot is likely to come down to the final series of the year, with Kansas City hosting Indianapolis, although the House of David are technically still in the race.

#Player Performance

#Batters

An overpowered year on offense comes to a close. This list has been fairly constant for a while, I’ve added a 2nd list with less desirable stats as well.

Top 2 in most categories.

Lance Berkman (CLE). 279/369/645. 141 RBI.
José Canseco (MCG). 256/357/716. 66 HR.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/377/618. 196 H.
Ty Cobb (DET). 384/438/828. 214 H, 65 2B, 16 3B, 148 R, 9.4 WAR.
Josh Gibson (HOM). 395/492/798. 10.7 WAR.
Rickey Henderson (SFS). 248/378/421. 103 BB, 121 SB.
Pete Hill (HOU). 270/345/449. 14 3B.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 355/410/607. 67 2B.
Tim Raines (OTT). 250/353/438. 111 SB.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 282/416/745. 70 HR, 162 RBI, 142 R, 117 BB.

Here are some of the less positive performances. Only the leader is listed (although Dunn is 2nd in SO and Lajoie 2nd in negative WAR).

Cupid Childs (BBB). 222/343/327.
Adam Dunn (IND). 207/341/468. 190 SO.
Ted Kluszewski (PHI). 248/291/442. -1.5 WAR.
Nap Lajoie (HOM). 232/254/407. -1.4 WAR.
Manny Machado (BAL). 240/284/518. 24 GIDP.
Mickey Mantle (NYY). 254/367/588. 214 SO.
Doug Rader (LAA). 242/299/455. 24 GIDP.

This list is interesting, honestly. Childs’ OBP and Dunn’s power hide other clear faults, and it’s surprising that WAR sees Kluszewksi as that bad. Mantle is obviously the best of this group.

#Pitchers

#Starters

As it has been for most of the seasion, this list continues to be dominated by 3 names: A. Rube Foster, Luis Padrón, and Toad Ramsey. I’ve added some usage stats (GS, IP) to help fill out the picture as the season winds down, and, as with the batters, a 2nd list for some less desirable leaders (Hardie Henderson could be on both, given 18 wins and his league-leading walks number).

Top 2 in most categories.

A. Rube Foster (KCM). 11-7, 3.27. .187 BA, .217 BABIP, 1.01 WHIP.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 11-7, 4.51. 251 K.
Hardie Henderson (IND). 18-12, 3.78. 98 BB.
Orel Hershiser (BRK). 18-5, 3.76.
José Méndez (MCG). 13-5, 4.47. 35 GS.
Luis Padrón (IND). 23-3, 3.20. 228 IP, 7.0 WAR.
Andy Pettitte (NYY). 18-8, 4.26.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 19-7, 4.46.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 16-10, 3.23. 223 IP, 282 K, .182 BA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.39 FIP, 7.9 WAR.
Ed Walsh (CAG). 9-10, 3.84. .222 BABIP.
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 12-12, 3.87. 3.58 FIP.

Gerrit Cole (LAA). 7-15, 6.45.
Walter Johnson (POR). 13-11, 4.10. 91 BB.
Christy Mathewson (NYG). 7-15, 5.58. 36 GS.

#Relievers

Top 2 in most stats, top 3 in saves. 35 Min IP for rate stats.

Rod Beck (SFS). 4-4, 5.09. 39 Sv, 1 H.
Bruce Chen (BBB). 2-4, 6.71. 4 Sv, 11 H, 67 G.
Rheal Cormier (NYY). 1-3, 4.93. 17 H.
Eric Gagne (BRK). 3-3, 3.12. 37 Sv.
Eddie Guardado (KCM). 2-3, 2.27. 2 Sv, 10 H.
Bob Howry (PHI). 4-1, 3.32. 24 Sv, 0.89 WHIP.
Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-7, 5.81. 1 Sv, 20 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 8-4, 3.52. 33 Sv.
Andrew Miller (MEM). 7-8, 4.42. 4 Sv, 12 H, 71 G.
Akinori Otsuka (CAG/BBB). 8-3, 2.26. 7 Sv, 5 H.
Lee Smith (KCM/HOD). 4-2, 2.75. 6 Sv, 12 H, 0.76 WHIP.

TWIWBL 82.2 Spotlight on the Memphis Red Sox

There is a ton of offensive talent here, but it falls off drastically, and suffers from a lot of positional overlap. Add in downright poor pitching, and you have the worst team in the Bill James Division.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

It’s not clear where Memphis goes, but it certainly looks like trading some of their positional depth for some pitching should be on the table.

THE OFFENSE

It’s a top heavy team, with some true standout talent.

#What’s Going Right

Ted Williams is an elite talent, and while his 298/412/619 slash line doesn’t move him into the absolute top tier, at 22 there is quite some room for improvement.

Manny Ramírez has stepped up dramatically from last year, leading the team with 42 HRs and 2nd behind Williams in RBI. Ramírez’ OPS has hovered around 1.000 all season, powered by a SLG in the mid .600’s.

David Ortiz has essentially displaced Bill White at 1B, slashing 286/370/680 in just over 300 PAs.

Gabby Hartnett is an excellent offensive C, posting an OPS in the mid 800’s with 37 HRs and his backup, Billy Bryan, has been even better offensively, with 14 HRs in 140 PA’s.

For a 20 year old, Dobie Moore‘s debut has to be considered a success, slashing 291/352/427 while playing across the IF.

#What’s Not Going Right

OF Mookie Betts and 3B Wade Boggs have been fine, but the Red Sox need more if they are going to compete.

Nobody getting a ton of playing time has really been awful offensively, although only Iván De Jesús‘ defensive flexibility has kept him in the league.

The positional distribution remains unsolved: Ortiz, White, and Travis Shaw all seem to be reasonable WBL alternatives at 1B, and the leading young talent (Hack Wilson and Lefty O’Doul) play the same positions as Reggie Smith, Betts, Ramírez, and Williams.

THE PITCHING

When your best pitcher is a middling middle reliever (Tommy de la Cruz, whose 6.20 ERA belies some very good supporting numbers), you’re in trouble.

#What’s Going Right

That is a little unfair to Stubby Overmire, who leads the team with 11 wins and looks like an excellent #2 or #3 rotation starter being asked to be a #1.

Andrew Miller‘s been solid out of the bullpen with a 7-8 record, 3 saves, and 11 holds while leading the WBL in appearances.

#What’s Not Going Right

Everything else.

David Bush, Len Barker, and Jon Lester have all failed to impress, with Bush (8-8, 6.82) being the best of a bad lot.

Some of the other hurlers given opportunities, especially Eddie Cicotte and Nixey Callahan, have been unbelievably bad.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is some help, as Memphis has a middle-of-the-road farm system, with some strong talent that is blocked at the WBL level (all the more trade fodder for some pitching).

OFs Dwight Evans, Hack Wilson, Willie Crawford, Roy Thomas, Lefty O’Doul, and Carl Yastrzemski all look to have high ceilings. On the IF, it’s a bit more sparse, with Candy Jim Taylor and Joe Cunningham leading the way.

There is also some potential on the mound. Sadie McMahon remains well regarded despite his struggles, and he, Jim Kaat, Josh Beckett, and Nathan Eovaldi should all be given some long looks in the Spring.

WHAT’S NEEDED

A re-distribution of the talent, using some of the excess to bring some arms to town.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Who is going to fill out the rotation and the bullpen? Remains totally unanswered.
  • Memphis’ scouts are agog over Dobie Moore, but scouts don’t play the game: is Moore the real thing and, if so, what happens to Vern Stephens? Moore looks to be the real thing, and Stephens was pretty bad, eventually moving on to Brooklyn (where, it must be said, he has flourished) for a 4th round pick.
  • Sosa was moved out, essentially for Gabby Hartnett, putting more pressure on the OF the step up. Hartnett is doing well, and the last thing the Red Sox need is more OF talent.

FEATURED SERIES

Since the Cuban Giants still have an outside shot at the playoffs, we’ll use the opportunity to focus on the Red Sox’s visit to Miami for a 4 game set at the start of the week.

Projected Starters

Memphis starter listed first, although I would expect at least a few of these to change.

David Bush (8-8, 6.82) @ Cole Hamels (11-10, 5.88)
Stubby Overmire (11-9, 4.81) @ Jim Whitney (8-6, 3.90)
Len Barker (10-12, 5.07) @ Phenomenal Smith (2-0, 1.93)
TBA @ Hugh McQuillan (4-3, 4.82)

Just because it will make the end of the year far more interesting, let’s go with a 3-1 series win for Miami.

Game One

The Red Sox used 2 homeruns from Dustin Pedroia and just enough from their bullpen to take game 1, 8-6.

Memphis took the lead on a 2 run homer from Gabby Hartnett, but 2 wild pitches from David Bush (one in the 2nd, one in the 3rd) tied the game at 2.

Pedroia’s first homer, in the top of the 5th, put Memphis back on top. The Red Sox hit 3 out of the park in the 7th, getting homers from David Ortiz, Pedroia again, and Manny Ramírez. That gave the Red Sox an 8-2 lead, which should have been enough …

Except, Sadie McMahon, in relief of Bush, imploded, giving up 4 runs before being relieved by Andrew Miller. Miller, however, was effective, earning his 12th hold of the year, and Tommy de la Cruz closed the door for his 5th save as Memphis played spoiler to Miami’s Wild Card chase.

MEM 8 (Taylor 11-10) @ MCG 6 (Mathewson 7-15)
HRs: MEM – Hartnett (38), Pedroia 2 (4), Ortiz (32), Ramírez (43); MCG – Oliver (8).
Box Score

Game Two

Dean Chance got the start for Memphis in game 2 and was actually quite good. Unfortunately for Memphis, Miami’s Jim Whitney was better, allowing 3 hits and 1 run over 7 innings–a solo shot from Ted Williams in the top of the 1st–as the Cuban Giants edged the Red Sox, 6-1.

Miami got longballs from Julio Rodríguez, Jim Thome, and Joe Adcock in the victory.

MEM 1 (Chance 0-1) @ MCG 6 (Whitney 4-4, George 1 H)
HRs: MEM- Williams (40); MCG – J. Rodríguez (37), Thome (54), Adcock (2).
Box Score

Game Three

Bucky Walters would get the start for Memphis, with Miami countering with Phenomenal Smith, whose return from injury has come at just the right time for the Cuban Giants.

Memphis jumped on Smith in the top of the 1st with Bill White–whose playing time has declined regularly over the season–hitting a 3 run homerun. Miami tied the game in the 3rd with a 3 run homerun from Julio Rodríguez.

The Red Sox took the lead on a sacrifice fly from Wade Boggs in the top of the 5th, but 4 consecutive hits–doubles from Alejandro Oms, Rodríguez and Yasiel Puig wrapped around a single from José Canseco–chased Walters and gave the Cuban Giants a 6-4 advantage.

The Red Sox would score again, but not enough as Miami edged it, 7-6. Rodríguez continued his hot streak with 3 hits and 4 RBI’s, and the revamped Miami bullpen closed it out, this time with Ricky Nolasco getting the hold and Jonathan Papelbon his 8th save since coming over to the Cuban Giants.

MEM 6 (Walters 0-3) @ MCG 7 (Smith 3-0, Papelbon 8 Sv, Looper 10 H, Nolasco 3 H)
HRs: MEM – White (23); MCG – Rodríguez (38).
Box Score

Game 4

So this one matters as a series win would impact the post-season picture. Memphis would trot out their best starter, last year’s ERA champ, Stubby Overmire while Miami would counter with the impressive, but essentially untried, Hugh McQuillan.

Or, the once impressive, as the Red Sox jumped on him for 6 runs in 5 innings, and then pounded his relief, Don Wilson, for 4 more in an 11-3 rout.

The offensive onslaught was led by Ted Williams‘s 3 hits, but almost everyone got involved, with Williams, Lefty O’Doul, Wade Boggs, Mookie Betts, and Travis Shaw each going deep. Pair that with Overmire’s solid 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs and–most surprisingly for Red Sox fans–2 scoreless innings in relief from Nixey Callahan–and you have an easy victory for Memphis and a vital defeat for Miami.

MEM 11 (Overmire 12-9) – MCG 3 (McQuillan 4-4)
HRs: MEM – Williams (41), O’Doul (2), Boggs (10), Betts (25), Shaw (18); MCG: Canseco (65).
Box Score

The series split is a solid result for Memphis as it continues to give some of its young players time; a far more disappointing result for Miami, who look to fall just short of the postseason.

Page 1 of 2

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén