▌ State of the Franchise
Houston has the coldest front office in the league: a compliment.
The Colt .45’s were surprise contenders in 2001 (85-77, a first Marvin Miller Division title, and a playoff round won before Brooklyn ended their season). This team was built without sentiment. Surplus value is currency; names don’t matter, they’ve moved out Lance Berkman, HR Johnson, and Stubby Overmire in major deals, each one built around the notion that they brought more talent in than they surrendered.
The engine underneath is young. The everyday core runs 20 to 25 — Carlos Correa at short, Jeff Bagwell at first, Jim Wynn in center, 20-year-old Pete Hill in left — with a farm system stuffed with arms. The weak point over each of the past 2 seasons has been the bullpen, which has stumbled at every opportunity despite a wealth of good-looking arms — pointing to a challenge either in evaluation or a long string of poor fortune.
And all of it is watched by the most analytics-literate crowd in the league — a fanbase that reads value correctly and whose standing grievance is that nobody outside the 713 appreciates what they’re building.
▌ 2001 Revisited
A year ago the diagnosis was the offense — too weak across the board, especially in its ability to hit for power — and the prescription was for the established bats to break out: some combination of George Brett, Craig Biggio, and Andrés Galarraga.
They didn’t — those 3 in particular. Biggio hit 234/333/398. Brett scuffled to .227 in 357 plate appearances. Galarraga hit his way to a demotion.
Houston won the division anyway, which is the whole point of this franchise. Correa erupted for 318/399/556 and settled the shortstop question to the point Houston was willing to deal Johnson. Tony Gwynn flirted with .400 before tailing off a bit after the All-Star break. Toad Ramsey knuckleballed his way to 282 strikeouts and an 8.2 WAR, arguably the best pitching season anyone had. Clemens won 17. Wynn hit 37 homers and added 38 steals with a .359 OBP and, as usual, was noticed by almost nobody.
The power never really arrived — which is an ongoing concern, and largely responsible for Gorman Thomas making the Opening Day roster (Thomas had a strong showing at the end of last season, and the team is anticipating that Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt add to their longball numbers as well).
The one thing that went exactly as feared was the bullpen — it didn’t seem to matter who they used, they all got hammered. Sparky Lyle, the arm they sold Johnson to get, had a 3.86 ERA in New York and a 10.12 in Houston.
And yet: division title, Wild Card series win, and clear-eyed optimism for the future.
▌ Key Changes
In: Trea Turner (CAG)
Out: Travis Jackson (CAG)
Opening Day Rookies: Vida Blue; Shanty Hogan; Roberto Osuna; Aramis Ramírez; Will Smith; Gorman Thomas; Trea Turner
▌ Best Case for 2002
The young core steps forward instead of back. Correa’s breakout proves real, and behind Ramsey and Clemens the reclamation arms bounce the way the org keeps insisting they will — Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg were both 4-WAR aces once, and Oswalt’s spring (a 0.69 ERA, the command back) confirms Houston’s faith in them.
Hill and the kids keep climbing, and more power develops throughout the lineup. And the perennial if finally lands: 1 of the electric bullpen arms converts, and Houston has an 8th and 9th inning to go with everything else.
And, with all that, the team confirms that it’s built to be good for a long time.
▌ Worst Case for 2002
The pen stays exactly what it has been. Correa’s 2001 turns out to have been the career year rather than the launching pad. Brett’s swing stays both pretty and empty. And perhaps most concerning, Oswalt and Strasburg stay frustratingly promising, but without impact. Ramsey proves to have been a fluke, leaving the rotation bereft of much beyond Clemens.
▌ Key Questions
- Will the bullpen ever convert? A maddening question, because it’s not a blind spot — the org sees it perfectly. The pen is stocked with electric arms that don’t get outs: Billy Wagner‘s stuff grades near the top of the league and he posted an 8.20 ERA. The relievers who actually work are the soft-tossers, Tug McGraw and Andrew Chafin. A large share of Houston’s churn is nothing more than repeated attempts to fix this one thing.
- Which Correa is real? The franchise committed hard after the breakout, clearing the middle infield to hand him shortstop outright, and the spring keeps agreeing (a 1.105 OPS). But a .955 season from a 23-year-old could very well be a mirage.
- How far does trusting young arms go? Further than anywhere else in the league, for sure: Elton Chamberlain threw 108 innings of 3.56 ball with 100 strikeouts at 19. The next test case is Leon Day, 20, whom the org holds as a future front-of-rotation starter on conviction alone — his 2001 was an 8.49 ERA in a WBL look and 8.34 at Triple-A.
▌ Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Smith · Hogan |
| 1B | Bagwell B · Goldschmidt |
| 2B | Biggio D · Turner |
| SS | Correa A |
| 3B | Brett F · Ramírez |
| LF | Hill C |
| CF | Wynn B · O’Rourke B |
| RF | Gwynn B |
| DH | Goldschmidt · Bagwell B |
| SP | Ramsey S · Clemens B · Chamberlain · Oswalt F · Strasburg D |
| RP | Lyle D (CL) · McGraw D · Chafin A · Wagner · Osuna |
What the cells won’t tell you: Jim Wynn may be the best player on the roster.
▌ Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | CF Jim Wynn | 1B Harry Stovey |
| Batting Eye | 1B Paul Goldschmidt | 3B Morgan Ensberg |
| Contact | RF Tony Gwynn | CF Kirby Puckett |
| Running Speed | 2B Trea Turner | CF Willy Taveras |
| Base Stealing | SP Elton Chamberlain; CF Jim O’Rourke | SP Ed Morris |
| IF Defense | 3B George Brett | SS Roy McMillan |
| OF Defense | RF Pete Hill | CF Willy Taveras |
| Stuff | RP Billy Wagner | RP Brad Lidge |
| Control | RP Roberto Osuna | RP Dan Quisenberry; RP Tim Crews |
| Velocity | RP Billy Wagner | RP Brad Lidge |
▌ Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (2) | 20 | SP | Ed Morris |
| 2 (33) | 22 | SP | Carlos Rodón |
| 3 (40) | 19 | CF | César Cedeño |
| 4 (53) | 22 | 2B | Yoán Moncada |
| 5 (62) | 26 | CF | Kirby Puckett |
| 6 (69) | 20 | 2B | Tommy Harper |
| 7 (87) | 22 | SP | Scott Bankhead |
| 8 (89) | 20 | SP | Rick Wise |
Others: P Leon Day, P Bill Harper, P Lance McCullers, P Bret Saberhagen.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Trea Turner (21), Will Smith (42).
The deepest, most pitching-rich system in the league. Recent draftee Ed Morris ranks 2nd in all of baseball. Carlos Rodón — pried out of New York in the HR Johnson sale — threw 137 innings at a 2.29 ERA with 121 strikeouts, and with Scott Bankhead and Rick Wise that makes 4 ranked starters. César Cedeño, Kirby Puckett and Tommy Harper feed the outfield behind them.
A year ago this list was topped by Chamberlain, who has since graduated into the rotation, and by catcher Will Smith, who is now the everyday backstop.
Then there’s the layer nobody ranks, which is also arms: Bret Saberhagen is 21 and put up a 3.03 at AA. Lance McCullers is 21 and saved 33 games in the minors, and there is, of course, Day.
▌ Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Gorman Thomas, 32 | Mike Hedlund, 18 |
| Height | John O’Donoghue, 6’6″ | Ed Morris, 5’7″ |
| OPS | Ken Henderson, 1.125 (AA) | Jorge Polanco, .480 (A) |
| HR | Gorman Thomas, 50 (AAA) | Roy McMillan, 1 (AA) |
| SB | Jim Wynn, 38 | – |
| WAR (bat) | Ken Henderson, 5.4 (AA) | Victor Reyes, −2.2 (A) |
| W | Roger Clemens, 17 | – |
| SV | Lance McCullers, 33 (AA) | – |
| ERA | Carlos Rodón, 2.18 (A) | Leon Day, 6.79 (AA) |
| WAR (pit) | Toad Ramsey, 8.2 | Dock Ellis, 0.2 |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.