Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Aramis Ramirez

TWIWBL 91.1: Off Season Review – Houston Colt 45s

85 - 77, .525 pct.
1st in Marvin Miller Division
Won 4-1 v PHI in NL Wild Card
Lost to BRK 4-2 in NL Championship

Overall

Houston was quite a surprise this year, taking home their first division title with a team that came together a year or three earlier than expected. The question is can they maintain this level of play?

A lot depends on how the pitching plays out: Toad Ramsey was among the best in the WBL this year and Roger Clemens wasn’t far behind. If the rest of the rotation can come around, and if the bullpen can just manage to be OK, the Colt 45’s could be back in the playoffs next year.

The distant future is quite bright: this is a very young team with some strong talent working through the system as well.

What Went Right

We’ll start with the pitching this time.

Above all else, we have knuckleballer Toad Ramsey, who was probably the best pitcher in the WBL by any analysis of the metrics, but whose 16-10 record prevented him winning all the awards. Ramsey was nearly impossible to hit, and struck out over 11 per 9 innings, and will be looked to as a staff ace once more next season.

Roger Clemens delivered in his first full season in Houston, going 17-10 with a 3.71 ERA and joining Ramsey in pitching over 200 innings.

Ice Box Chamberlain was hurt for most of the season, but came back very strong, with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 15 starts.

Andrew Chafin was good in the bullpen all year, and Jim Kern and Roberto Osuna good over the home stretch.

We’ll start on the offensive side with a couple late season additions. Gorman Thomas rode a 276/415/752 slash line over 34 games to a spot on the playoff roster, and a guaranteed deep look in Spring Training for the 31 year old. Will Smith was even better, pounding out a Ty Cobb like 1.422 OPS in 22 games, creating a virtual lock on the C job going into next year.

Paul Goldschmidt took about half the season to get going, but he was probably the most dangerous hitter on the team once he did, slashing 279/379/663 in 56 games and settling the question of DH (or 1B, depending on how the team evaluates his glovework v Jeff Bagwell‘s).

Speaking of Bagwell, he came good on his talent, leading the team with 112 RBIs and spanking 35 homeruns while showing great patience at the plate.

Carlos Correa was the surprise of the team, flirting with .400 for a while early in the season and finishing at 318/399/556 while playing quite well at SS. If Correa can keep this level of production up, it would both be an extreme boon for Houston and a bit of a surprise.

Speaking of surprises, Jim O’Rourke, a significant disappointment last year, posted an .889 OPS while providing his usual defensive flexibility.

And, speaking of flirting with .400, Tony Gwynn finished at .341, with exactly 200 hits.

Finally, Jim Wynn continues to somehow go underappreciated as a top corner outfielder. He led the team with 37 homeruns and 116 runs scored while posting an .881 OPS.

Oh, one more: Pete Hill‘s .800 OPS doesn’t seem like much until you realize he’s only 20 years old.

ALL STARS

Carlos Correa
Tony Gwynn
Toad Ramsey
MAJOR AWARDS

Toad Ramsey, All NL 1st Team
Jim Wynn, All NL 1st Team
RECOGNITIONS

Jeff Bagwell, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Vida Blue, NL 21 & Under Team
Andrew Chafin, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Ice Box Chamberlain, NL 21 & Under Team; All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Roger CLemens, All NL 3rd Team
Carlos Correa, All NL 2nd Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Tony Gwynn, All NL 3rd Team
Elliott Maddox, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Toad Ramsey, NL Brock Rutherford Award, 2nd Place; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Jim Wynn, NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Toad Ramsey, MVP
Toad Ramsey, Pitcher of the Year
Jim Wynn, Heart & Soul
Pete Hill, Fan Favorite

Lance McCullers, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Gorman Thomas, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

First, the bullpen. It didn’t seem to matter who the Colt 45’s used, from Billy Wagner to Brad Lidge to John Franco to Fred Ely to young Leon Day. They all got hammered. And, at closer, Tug McGraw (and, later, Sparky Lyle) were OK, but not more than that.

More importantly, though, Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg (not to mention an early season trial for Bret Saberhagen) were miserable, and while each ate up innings, instead of anchoring the staff, they were anchors on the team.

There were 3 significant holes in the offense: C, 2B, and 3B.

Behind the plate, Jorge Posada was below average, even for a catcher; at 2B, Craig Biggio was largely miserable, slashing 234/333/398; and at 3B, it took a late season hot streak for George Brett to improve his numbers to 227.272/469. Biggio and Brett are young enough to rebound, and see above for Will Smith‘s ouster of Posada, who is likely to spend next season as the backup catcher.

Goldschmidt’s success lessens its impact, but Andrés Galarraga‘s miserable start must be mentioned. The Big Cat slashed 187/223/373 over 56 games before being sent to the minors.

Transactions

March

None.

July

Also, none. Not for lack of trying, but the Colt 45’s found themselves in a pretty optimistic state of mind these days.

August

IF Grant Johnson to NYY for P Sparky Lyle, IF Eliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd Round Pick, 4th Round Pick.

This was a big one. HR Johnson is an elite talent, and Houston made the Black Yankees overpay, hoping to solve both their closer issues (Lyle was mediocre at best) and gathering the draft picks. This deal settled the Colt 45’s infield, committing them to Biggio, Correa, and Brett and, hence, increasing the pressure on the latter 2 to rebound next year.

Positional Overview

C

The Colt 45’s are turning this over to Will Smith with Jorge Posada as the backup. If either falter, they do have the option of Jim O’Rourke and even Craig Biggio filling in.

Walter Schmidt is probably the best defensive option in the minors, for whatever that’s worth.

1B

Jeff Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt have this locked up, with whoever isn’t on the field at DH.

Harry Stovey has some upside, as does Charlie Grimm, but Bagwell and Goldschmidt should be here for quite some time.

2B

Craig Biggio will get another shot at this, but a performance like this year will move him to a reserve role pretty quickly.

Bama Rowell would have the first crack at the job, although the Colt 45’s would be likely to try Travis Jackson as well, despite SS being his more natural position.

SS

It’s not quite clear that Carlos Correa belongs in the upper echelon of WBL shortstops, but another season like this one would certainly place him there. Should Correa falter, Travis Jackson is most likely to get a chance, although there is other talent to choose from: Shawon Dunston can hit, and both Bucky Dent and Cristian Guzmán have WBL quality gloves.

3B

George Brett is in a similar position to Biggio: there is great promise, but it’s not clear he can deliver fast enough to hold his role.

This one is more competitive: it’s O’Rourke’s natural position, and both Aramis Ramírez and Wes Helms are serviceable alternatives while Edgar Martínez–only 21–develops.

LF/RF

This is more settled: Jim Wynn in LF and Tony Gwynn in RF with support from Casey Stengel and, occasionally, Pete Hill.

Buddy Bradford, Shin-Soo Choo, Ken Henderson, and Hunter Pence are also available, should Stengel either falter or be injured again.

CF

Pete Hill keeps getting better, and Houston anticipates another step forward this year. Gorman Thomas has earned a shot at the backup spot.

At some point, César Cedeño or Kirby Puckett may demand more time, and if backup is needed before then, Lorenzo Cain looks almost ready.

DH

Goldschmidt and/or Bagwell; Bagwell or/and Goldschmidt.

SP

Toad Ramsey, Roger Clemens, and Ice Box Chamberlain to open. The final 2 spots will come down to Stephen Strasburg, Roy Oswalt, Vida Blue, and Dock Ellis.

At 20, Leon Day is still probably a year or two away, but he may have the highest ceiling in the system–he or Blue.

Dave Dravecky, Bill Harper, Bret Saberhagen, Rick Wise, and Carlos Rodón should also be in the mix down the line.

RP

And now we come to the crux of the matter.

Houston has a huge amount of talent here, but the performance has been pretty miserable. They’ll again look for Tug McGraw and Sparky Lyle to close games, and turn to the best performers from this season to set them up (Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Jim Kern, and John Franco).

Beyond that … unsure. Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner have immense talent, but have struggled mightily over multiple opportunities.

Dan Quisenberry should get a look, as should their Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Lance McCullers.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 2
5th Round: 1

It’s a good opportunity for Houston to build their system although the temptation to find WBL level bullpen help with some of the early round picks is pretty strong.

TWIWBL 77.3: The Trade Market

With the August trade deadline just around the corner, seemed to be a good time to take a look at the likely sellers and buyers, and some players that are likely to find new homes by the end of next week.

Some notes on these:

  • Needs reflect places where the minor league systems are thin on talent and the general shape of WBL level talent needed.
  • The second three bullets (Prospects, AAA Help, WBL Help) are possible players that could be available in the right context..

#BUYERS

These are teams looking to solidify their talent or make a push for the post-season. In a perfect world, they have some young talent to spare as well.

#Birmingham Black Barons

Yeah, they’re in 5th place, but they’re also only 4 games back, so there’s hope. The Black Barons have been ingenious at past deadlines, we’ll see if they can continue the trend.

Needs: IF, P, Minor League SS/3B

Prospects: OF Melky Cabrera, Curt Flood, Gary Matthews; IF Nate Colbert, Hal Trosky
AAA Help: P Tommy Bond; IF Pie Traynor
MLB Help: OF Bob Nieman

#Cleveland Spiders

Could use another SP, as well as a help in the middle infield–Chuck Knoblauch is skating along on last year’s performance, and there isn’t any depth to speak of at 2B/SS despite Steve Sax‘s excellent first 50 PA’s.

Needs: Minor League 2B/SS.

Prospects: OF Paul O’Neill, Kenny Lofton; IF Johnny Hodapp
AAA Help: P Chuck Porter, Claude Passeau; IF Bob Elliott, Brook Jacoby
MLB Help: IF Willie McCovey

#Homestead Grays

A Wild Card spot is likely for the Grays, who have a powerhouse offense and a desperate need for pitching. With some young talent blocked, they may be able to make some moves.

Needs: Bullpen is aging

Prospects: OF Max Carey, Paul Waner; IF Freddie Lindstrom
AAA Help: OF Starling Marte; IF Jeff Kent, P Brickyard Kennedy
MLB Help: OF Goose Goslin

#Houston Colt 45’s

Another team caught between a wild card chase and building for the future, the Colt 45’s would love to address their one ongoing need, which is a catcher to take over from the aging Jorge Posada, as some in the organization are not yet sold on Will Smith as the longterm solve behind the plate. There is a crunch at 1B/DH as well, as there really aren’t enough AB’s to go around for both Paul Goldschmidt and the recently demoted Andrés Galaragga.

Needs: Minor League C, SS.

Prospects: IF Bucky Dent, Travis Jackson, Wes Helms; OF César Cedeño, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo
AAA Help: P Mike Sirotka, Óscar Tuero; IF Carney Lansford, Aramis Ramírez, OF Gorman Thomas, Johnny Damon
MLB Help: Various bullpen pieces may be possible

#Indianapolis ABC’s

Another team riding the wild card roller coaster. The ABC’s are solid offensively, but struggle some behind their top end starters. There are some blocked players–perhaps most notably Jake Stenzel–so there are some pieces available.

Needs: Minor League OF

Prospects: OF Jim Eisenreich, IF Pokey Reese, Sean Casey, Hal Morris
AAA Help: P Johnny Vandeer Meer; OF Jody Gerut, Dave Henderson, Ed Swartwood; IF Dan Driessen
MLB Help: OF Jake Stenzel, Bob Bescher, IF Ed Charles

#Kansas City Monarchs

This Monarchs team will make the playoffs a year or two ahead of schedule so the choice of how much to surrender for immediate success is a bit challenging. At some point, some of the positional logjams need to be sorted out (Albert Pujols, Dale Murphy, and Ducky Medwick; Willie McGee and Cool Papa Bell), but it’s not clear that now is that time.

Needs: Minor League C; WBL Offense

Prospects: OF Wade Johnston, Earl Averill; IF Keston Hiura, Pat Burrell
AAA Help: P Adam Wainwright, Jack Quinn; IF Ken Boyer, Andre Thornton; OF Merv Rettenmund, Jim King
MLB Help: P Matt Morris, Luke Hamlin

#New York Black Yankees

Once again the Black Yankees are trying to find the right piece to extend their postseason run. At some point, they’ll need to solve their post Derek Jeter needs at SS, but this is probably not that time.

Needs: Minor League OF; P; future SS.

Prospects: OF Rob Deer, Clyde Milan
AAA Help: OF Roger Maris; IF Tom Herr, Red Rolfe; P AJ Burnett
MLB Help: P Rheal Cormier, Red Ruffing, Waite Hoyt

#MEH

A mix of teams doing well enough not need anything (San Francisco) and those not willing to give up much because they like their current talent composition moving into Year 3. Never say never, as these teams do have some pieces, but they are far less motivated to get something done at the deadline.

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

This team is just beginning to gel, but they could use some offense and they are one of the few franchises with arms to spare.

Needs: SS if unconvinced by Vern Stephens; Minor League 1B

Prospects: OF Matty Alou, Raúl Mondesi, Don Mueller; IF Sonny Jackson, Ken McMullen, Maury Wills; P Doc Newton, Zach Britton
MLB Help: IF Germany Smith, Dick Bertell
AAA Help: IF Jim Gentile, Eric Karros; C Kelly Shoppach; P Ron Perranoski

#Detroit Wolverines

They’re in an odd spot: on the one hand, they are likely to be in the wild card chase; on the other, this is a team well positioned for the future, and eager to cement that status. There are a lot of pieces that are over 30, but none–other than perhaps Oscar Gamble–are key cogs in the Wolverines’ machine.

Needs: Minor League 3B; IF, esp SS; P.

Prospects: IF Wander Franco
MLB Help: OF Oscar Gamble
AAA Help: OF Brady Clark, Wes Covington; IF Jimmy Collins; P Dennis Rasmussen

#Miami Cuban Giants

The Cuban Giants have an outside shot at a wildcard slot, but this is a team building for the future. As such, I would expect them to stand pat, or perhaps move some end of roster pieces for minor league depth.

Needs: Minor League OF, 3B, 1B; WBL P.

Prospects: OF Roy Thomas, Carlos Morán
MLB Help: P Sandy Consuegra, Kenshin Kawakami; OF Andy Pafko
AAA Help: IF Nellie Fox

#Ottawa Mounties

Even though the Mounties have a shot at the playoffs, this is a team trying to position itself for the future, which basically means begging everyone and anyone for pitching.

Needs: Minor League SS, 3B, C. SP.

Prospects: OF Warren Cromartie, Willie Upshaw, Willie Keeler, Leon Roberts
MLB Help: P Bryn Smith; IF Roy Sievers; OF Rick Monday
AAA Help: IF John Olerud; OF Terry Puhl, Bob Allison; C Emil Gross; P Chris Bosio

#Philadelphia Stars

The Stars are on the fringe of the playoffs, but really this is a team aiming at cementing and building around its emerging nucleus. As such, some of its useful veterans may be available; at the same time, Philadelphia would love to add some pitching and address its issues in the middle infield.

Needs: MI, P, WBL Offense.

Prospects: ???
MLB Help: OF Rico Carty; P Bob Howry, Robin Roberts, Pedro Feliciano; IF Art Fletcher, Ted Kluszewski
AAA Help: OF Bobby Abreu; IF Jung Ho Kang, Dolph Camilli, Cecil Cooper; C Sherm Lollar

#San Francisco Sea Lions

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That said, if an easy piece comes available, it’s unlikely the Sea Lions ignore the opportunity.

Needs: Minor League 1B

Prospects: OF Jules Thomas, Matt Holliday; IF Freddie Freeman; P Jair Jurrjens
MLB Help:
AAA Help: IF Dick Green, Denny Walling; OF Josh Reddick; P Rube Walberg

#Wandering House of David

Even the House of David isn’t convinced their playoff chances are real. Still … they might be. So it’s a bit of a quandary in terms of whether they should move some of their young talent or not. The challenge is the roster really doesn’t make a ton of sense: CF is overly crowded, 1B/DH as well, and there is an abundance of talent at 2B.

Needs: P

Prospects: OF Tony Conigliaro; IF Billy Herman
MLB Help: OF Jim Edmonds, George Gore; IF Mark McGwire, Richie Hebner
AAA Help: P Joaquín Andújar; IF Tom Hutton, Mark Grace; OF Tracy Jones

#SELLERS

Teams with either an excess of talent, or who have thrown in the towel on the season and have some veteran pieces that may be attractive.

#Baltimore Black Sox

Last year’s champs, this year’s dunces. Baltimore believes in its young core, a belief that may see them retain FA acquisition Gavvy Cravath, but even he may be had for the right price.

Needs: all P, Minor League OF.

MLB Help: IF Bobby Wallace, Dan McGann; P Buddy Groom, Connie Johnson, Joe Beggs
AAA Help: P Ken Johnson, Kevin Tapani, Christhian Martínez; OF Ken Griffey, Sr; IF Brian Roberts

#Chicago American Giants

The season cannot end soon enough. Chicago has talent to be a contender, but nothing has gone right for them this season. They are willing to blow up their pitching staff, from a how much worse could it be perspective.

Needs: Minor League OF, C; prime P

Prospects: IF Jorge Orta; OF Walter Davis, Lenny Dykstra
MLB Help: P Akinori Otsuka, Joe Lake, Mark Buehrle, Hoyt Wilhelm, David Price; IF Paul Konerko, Freddy Parent; OF Vernon Wells
AAA Help: OF Rocky Colavito, Magglio Ordóñez; C Michael McKenry

#Los Angeles Angels

It hasn’t been a bad year for the Angels, but they are still a player or three away. There is a lot of mound talent in the organization, but they could use some long term solutions at SS, 3B, and C.

Needs: Minor League OF, C, 2B; WBL Offense.

Prospects: OF Norm Miller
MLB Help: IF Eddie Joost
AAA Help: OF Elmer Valo; IF Mark Ellis; P Rich Hill

#Memphis Red Sox

There is hope in Beantown. Just not for this year. There also are some pieces that may hold attraction for contenders, most notably 1B Bill White (with the Red Sox happy to turn 1B over to David Ortiz) and closer Jonathan Papelbon. There is a lot of congestion at various positions that needs to clarify over time.

Needs: Minor League C, SS; SP; 2B/SS

Prospects: IF Dustin Pedroia, OF Joe Rudi, Dwight Evans, Lefty O’Doul, Candy Jim Taylor, P Jim Kaat
MLB Help: P Tommy de la Cruz, Jonathan Papelbon; IF Bill White, DJ LeMahieu, Iván De Jesús, Nomar Garciaparra
AAA Help: IF George Scott, Dustin Pedroia

#New York Gothams

With this season pretty much scrapped, the Gothams are looking to the future. Which puts them in an interesting spot, as they have a fair number of useful parts on the wrong side of 30. But it’s not a total fire sale, as the team isn’t that far away from competing.

Needs: Minor League SS, C, 2B; SS

Prospects: OF Rick Manning
MLB Help: P Mike Norris, Juan Marichal, Troy Percival, Gaylord Perry; IF Joe Adcock, Larry Doyle, Terry Turner
AAA Help: OF Carl Furillo, Steve Kemp, Charlie Hamburg; IF George Kell; P Liván Hernández, Wei-Yin Chen, Tony Mullane, Guy Hecker

#Portland Sea Dogs

In some sense, the Sea Dogs did their selling already, both during the offseason and the all star break. But this year is still a wash for Portland, so anything they can do to help build for the future will be worthwhile.

Needs: 2B/SS, overall WBL Offense.

Prospects: ???
MLB Help: OF Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper; IF Gil Hodges; P Mark Melancon
AAA Help: IF Don Baylor, Rafael Palmeiro; OF Walt Bond, Jerald Clark

TWIWBL 56.19: Spring Training Notes – Houston Colt 45’s

Spring Training Questions

Exactly how the roster shapes up, from C to MI to the reserve spots, all have to be answered.

Injuries

George Brett will miss the first few weeks of the season with a knee injury.

First Cuts

Of the starters, only Leon Day has struggled, but the teenager holds onto his position for now on the strength of his work last season. But some clarity has emerged among the relievers, where Óscar Tuero, Scott Bankhead, and Roberto Osuna were all sent down.

That leaves 22 pitchers in camp, so there will be more movement here over the next week.

Cs Bob Boone and Cy Perkins were sent down, along with Felipe Alou and, in Paul Goldschmidt, Aramis Ramírez, and Carney Lansford, three players who continue to show incredible promise at the plate until an actual game starts, when they can no longer make any contact.

3B remains a bit up in the air, as nobody has really hit–teen phenom Edgar Martínez has shown excellent plate discipline, but has yet to get a hit and Russ Adams has probably been the best of the group, with an OPS of .500.But, in all likelihood, the Colt 45’s are really just looking for someone to backup George Brett occasionally.

Bama Rowell‘s strong start at 2B keeps that position a bit crowded, while Shawon Dunstan heads to the minors, clearing a little room at SS.

In the OF, César Cedeño and Derek Bell have impressed, while Ken Henderson, Kirby Puckett, Shin-Soo Choo, and Hunter Pence have all been returned to minor league camp.

Which leaves the frustrating case of Jim O’Rourke, who refuses to show any potential at the plate, but has so much defensive flexibility that he retains a spot in camp. For the time being.

Second Cuts

Chad Qualls has imploded, giving up 12 hits in just over 2 innings of work, and earning a ticket to the minors along with Bill Harper, Harry Staley, and Wade Davis.

Jim O’Rourke and Rick Cerone were also sent down.

Of the 2B/SS/3B in camp, only Bama Rowell and Craig Biggio are hitting over .200, with only Edgar Martínez‘ eye for the strike zone joining them in having an OPS over .500. Someone has to catch fire here, but until then, they all remain.

The OFers also remain, as the worst performers–Jim Wynn and Casey Stengel–did enough last season to be virtually guaranteed roster spots.

Third Cuts

The bullpen is coming into focus, ending Chris Saenz‘ time in camp. Dock Ellis sticks around, but only as a hedge against Vida Blue‘s injury diagnosis, which should be forthcoming shortly.

Young draftee Edgar Martínez was sent to the minors, leaving only 2 players capable of playing 3B in camp in Russ Adams and the presumed starter until George Brett returns from injury, Grant Johnson.

The battle between Jason Castro and Will Smith to backup Jorge Posada at C is fierce, and Kevin Young, Bama Rowell, and César Cedeño are all making strong arguments for roster spots.

Final Cuts

SS Travis Jackson heads to AAA, along with MI partner, 2B Bama Rowell.

Leon Day will start the year at AAA as the teenager seeks a little more consistency before assuming a fulltime WBL spot.

Harry Stovey impressed in a brief showing last season, but is both blocked positionally and was unable to get anything going this Spring, leading to his starting the year at AAA.

Houston still has a ton of open questions, from the final 2-3 pitchers to be sent down to the backup C slot. But they got to 30 by demoting two OFers, Derek Bell and Gorman Thomas.

RP Andrew Chafin was placed on the DL.

The Colt 45’s rotation was always set in Roy Oswalt, Stephen Strasburg, Toad Ramsey, Roger Clemens, and Bret Saberhagen, so even Oswalt and Strasburg’s rough Springs haven’t changed that. The question, then, is which of the arms that remain would benefit more from regular starts at AAA and which could contribute from the WBL bullpen. Ice Box Chamberlain–who, it has to be remembered, is only 19–was moved out of camp.

Will Smith turned a number of heads all Spring, but the Colt 45’s believe regular playing time at AAA would serve him better than backing up Jorge Posada; a task that will fall to Jason Castro to open the season. This logic is clearly not absolute, though, as 18 year old César Cedeño will start the season on the Colt 45’s bench (assumedly only until George Brett recovers), making Kevin Young the final cut from camp.

Spring Training Preview: Houston

  • There’s a lot to sort out here starting with the starting rotation, where the final 2 slots will go to someone from the group of Dock Ellis, Stubby Overmire, Bret Saberhagen, and Leon Day.
    • Saberhagen is leading the way in this group, and Scott Erickson has forced himself into the conversation as well. Day and Overmire are most likely to miss the roster cut based on performances so far.
      • Day has been horrible, earning a trip to AAA, along with Overmire.
      • The rotation is still a bit up for grabs. Stephen Strasbourg, Roy Oswalt, Ice Box Chamberlain, and Toad Ramsey are likely in, leaving Saberhagen, Ellis, and Erickson vying for the final spot and the long relief roles.
  • The bullpen is a bit more settled: Brad Lidge is set as the closer, but Spring performances will determine the exact roles for Trevor Hoffman, Tug McGraw, Mark Melancon, and Billy Wagner.
    • Melancon, Hoffman, and Andrew Chafin have been great, while Wagner has been hit extraordinarily hard.
      • Wagner and Dan Quisenberry are both on the verge of heading to AAA.
  • On the infield, only SS is set with Carlos Correa. Paul Goldschmidt and Jeff Bagwell are vying to start at 1B, DJ LeMahieu, Craig Biggio, and HR Johnson are in the mix at 2B, and George Brett, Morgan Ensberg, and Aramis Ramirez all have shot to start at 3B.
    • At 1B, Andres Galarraga has been the best of the bunch by a fair measure, with both Bagwell and especially Goldschmidt struggling.
      • Right now, there’s nothing to choose between Galarraga, Bagwell, and Goldschmidt.
    • Johnson’s forcing himself into the conversation somewhere as well, especially given Correa’s struggles at SS.
      • This is still true: Johnson is hitting everything thrown to him. The end result of this is Shawon Dunston likely not making the opening day roster.
      • 3B is pretty much settled: Brett is pounding the ball and both Ramirez and Ensberg are struggling.
  • The OF isn’t much clearer: the group of Luis Gonzalez, Larry Hisle, Gorman Thomas, and Casey Stengel look to have a slight edge, but any of Lance Berkman, Pete Hill, Felipe Alou, Jim Wynn, and Tony Gwynn could earn a starting position.
    • Wynn, Gwynn, and Stengel have been the standouts so far, with Wynn being perhaps Houston’s best hitter through 10 games. Hill, and especially Hisle, have struggled, with Hisle being sent to AAA in an effort to clear some roster space.
      • Alou and Hill are both struggling, and seem unlikely to make the roster. Hisle has been recalled, along with Lance Blankenship.
Near DefiniteLikelyPossibleLong Shot
Starting PitchersToad Ramsey
Roy Oswalt
Stephen Strasbourg
Ice Box Chamberlain
Scott Erickson
Dock Ellis
Bret Saberhagen
Middle RelieversMike Hartley
Tug McGraw
Andrew Chafin
Dan Quisenberry
Billy Wagner
SetupTervor Hoffman
Mark Melancon
CloserBrad Lidge
CJim O'RourkeJorge Posada
1BJeff Bagwell
Paul Goldschmidt
Andres Galarraga
2BHR JohnsonCraig Biggio
DJ LeMahieu
Lance Blankenship
3BGeorge BrettMorgan Ensberg
Aramis Ramirez
SSCarlos CorreaShawon Dunston
OFCasey Stengel
Jim Wynn
Tony Gwynn
Luis Gonzalez
Gorman Thomas
Lance Berkman
Pete Hill
Felipe Alou
Larry Hisle

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