85 - 77, .525 pct.
1st in Marvin Miller Division
Won 4-1 v PHI in NL Wild Card
Lost to BRK 4-2 in NL Championship

Overall

Houston was quite a surprise this year, taking home their first division title with a team that came together a year or three earlier than expected. The question is can they maintain this level of play?

A lot depends on how the pitching plays out: Toad Ramsey was among the best in the WBL this year and Roger Clemens wasn’t far behind. If the rest of the rotation can come around, and if the bullpen can just manage to be OK, the Colt 45’s could be back in the playoffs next year.

The distant future is quite bright: this is a very young team with some strong talent working through the system as well.

What Went Right

We’ll start with the pitching this time.

Above all else, we have knuckleballer Toad Ramsey, who was probably the best pitcher in the WBL by any analysis of the metrics, but whose 16-10 record prevented him winning all the awards. Ramsey was nearly impossible to hit, and struck out over 11 per 9 innings, and will be looked to as a staff ace once more next season.

Roger Clemens delivered in his first full season in Houston, going 17-10 with a 3.71 ERA and joining Ramsey in pitching over 200 innings.

Ice Box Chamberlain was hurt for most of the season, but came back very strong, with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 15 starts.

Andrew Chafin was good in the bullpen all year, and Jim Kern and Roberto Osuna good over the home stretch.

We’ll start on the offensive side with a couple late season additions. Gorman Thomas rode a 276/415/752 slash line over 34 games to a spot on the playoff roster, and a guaranteed deep look in Spring Training for the 31 year old. Will Smith was even better, pounding out a Ty Cobb like 1.422 OPS in 22 games, creating a virtual lock on the C job going into next year.

Paul Goldschmidt took about half the season to get going, but he was probably the most dangerous hitter on the team once he did, slashing 279/379/663 in 56 games and settling the question of DH (or 1B, depending on how the team evaluates his glovework v Jeff Bagwell‘s).

Speaking of Bagwell, he came good on his talent, leading the team with 112 RBIs and spanking 35 homeruns while showing great patience at the plate.

Carlos Correa was the surprise of the team, flirting with .400 for a while early in the season and finishing at 318/399/556 while playing quite well at SS. If Correa can keep this level of production up, it would both be an extreme boon for Houston and a bit of a surprise.

Speaking of surprises, Jim O’Rourke, a significant disappointment last year, posted an .889 OPS while providing his usual defensive flexibility.

And, speaking of flirting with .400, Tony Gwynn finished at .341, with exactly 200 hits.

Finally, Jim Wynn continues to somehow go underappreciated as a top corner outfielder. He led the team with 37 homeruns and 116 runs scored while posting an .881 OPS.

Oh, one more: Pete Hill‘s .800 OPS doesn’t seem like much until you realize he’s only 20 years old.

ALL STARS

Carlos Correa
Tony Gwynn
Toad Ramsey
MAJOR AWARDS

Toad Ramsey, All NL 1st Team
Jim Wynn, All NL 1st Team
RECOGNITIONS

Jeff Bagwell, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Vida Blue, NL 21 & Under Team
Andrew Chafin, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team
Ice Box Chamberlain, NL 21 & Under Team; All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Roger CLemens, All NL 3rd Team
Carlos Correa, All NL 2nd Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Tony Gwynn, All NL 3rd Team
Elliott Maddox, All NL Rookie 2nd Team
Toad Ramsey, NL Brock Rutherford Award, 2nd Place; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Jim Wynn, NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Toad Ramsey, MVP
Toad Ramsey, Pitcher of the Year
Jim Wynn, Heart & Soul
Pete Hill, Fan Favorite

Lance McCullers, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Gorman Thomas, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

First, the bullpen. It didn’t seem to matter who the Colt 45’s used, from Billy Wagner to Brad Lidge to John Franco to Fred Ely to young Leon Day. They all got hammered. And, at closer, Tug McGraw (and, later, Sparky Lyle) were OK, but not more than that.

More importantly, though, Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg (not to mention an early season trial for Bret Saberhagen) were miserable, and while each ate up innings, instead of anchoring the staff, they were anchors on the team.

There were 3 significant holes in the offense: C, 2B, and 3B.

Behind the plate, Jorge Posada was below average, even for a catcher; at 2B, Craig Biggio was largely miserable, slashing 234/333/398; and at 3B, it took a late season hot streak for George Brett to improve his numbers to 227.272/469. Biggio and Brett are young enough to rebound, and see above for Will Smith‘s ouster of Posada, who is likely to spend next season as the backup catcher.

Goldschmidt’s success lessens its impact, but Andrés Galarraga‘s miserable start must be mentioned. The Big Cat slashed 187/223/373 over 56 games before being sent to the minors.

Transactions

March

None.

July

Also, none. Not for lack of trying, but the Colt 45’s found themselves in a pretty optimistic state of mind these days.

August

IF Grant Johnson to NYY for P Sparky Lyle, IF Eliott Maddox, P Carlos Rodón, 2nd Round Pick, 4th Round Pick.

This was a big one. HR Johnson is an elite talent, and Houston made the Black Yankees overpay, hoping to solve both their closer issues (Lyle was mediocre at best) and gathering the draft picks. This deal settled the Colt 45’s infield, committing them to Biggio, Correa, and Brett and, hence, increasing the pressure on the latter 2 to rebound next year.

Positional Overview

C

The Colt 45’s are turning this over to Will Smith with Jorge Posada as the backup. If either falter, they do have the option of Jim O’Rourke and even Craig Biggio filling in.

Walter Schmidt is probably the best defensive option in the minors, for whatever that’s worth.

1B

Jeff Bagwell and Paul Goldschmidt have this locked up, with whoever isn’t on the field at DH.

Harry Stovey has some upside, as does Charlie Grimm, but Bagwell and Goldschmidt should be here for quite some time.

2B

Craig Biggio will get another shot at this, but a performance like this year will move him to a reserve role pretty quickly.

Bama Rowell would have the first crack at the job, although the Colt 45’s would be likely to try Travis Jackson as well, despite SS being his more natural position.

SS

It’s not quite clear that Carlos Correa belongs in the upper echelon of WBL shortstops, but another season like this one would certainly place him there. Should Correa falter, Travis Jackson is most likely to get a chance, although there is other talent to choose from: Shawon Dunston can hit, and both Bucky Dent and Cristian Guzmán have WBL quality gloves.

3B

George Brett is in a similar position to Biggio: there is great promise, but it’s not clear he can deliver fast enough to hold his role.

This one is more competitive: it’s O’Rourke’s natural position, and both Aramis Ramírez and Wes Helms are serviceable alternatives while Edgar Martínez–only 21–develops.

LF/RF

This is more settled: Jim Wynn in LF and Tony Gwynn in RF with support from Casey Stengel and, occasionally, Pete Hill.

Buddy Bradford, Shin-Soo Choo, Ken Henderson, and Hunter Pence are also available, should Stengel either falter or be injured again.

CF

Pete Hill keeps getting better, and Houston anticipates another step forward this year. Gorman Thomas has earned a shot at the backup spot.

At some point, César Cedeño or Kirby Puckett may demand more time, and if backup is needed before then, Lorenzo Cain looks almost ready.

DH

Goldschmidt and/or Bagwell; Bagwell or/and Goldschmidt.

SP

Toad Ramsey, Roger Clemens, and Ice Box Chamberlain to open. The final 2 spots will come down to Stephen Strasburg, Roy Oswalt, Vida Blue, and Dock Ellis.

At 20, Leon Day is still probably a year or two away, but he may have the highest ceiling in the system–he or Blue.

Dave Dravecky, Bill Harper, Bret Saberhagen, Rick Wise, and Carlos Rodón should also be in the mix down the line.

RP

And now we come to the crux of the matter.

Houston has a huge amount of talent here, but the performance has been pretty miserable. They’ll again look for Tug McGraw and Sparky Lyle to close games, and turn to the best performers from this season to set them up (Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Jim Kern, and John Franco).

Beyond that … unsure. Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner have immense talent, but have struggled mightily over multiple opportunities.

Dan Quisenberry should get a look, as should their Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Lance McCullers.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 2
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 2
5th Round: 1

It’s a good opportunity for Houston to build their system although the temptation to find WBL level bullpen help with some of the early round picks is pretty strong.