State of the Franchise
The Black Barons say they want to pick a direction and hold it. The transaction log says otherwise. Two games out in July and they buy; one bad month and they tear it down. So far, that’s only produced a mushy pile of dissatisfaction, and the fans are beginning to grumble.
2001 was worse than 2000: 5th in the Marvin Miller Division and seemingly exiled to the borders of the standings. Hence the line the front office has now drawn: Birmingham, they say, is aiming for a championship between 2003 and 2005.
Though, you know, if they’re 4 games out in August …
The pressing problem is simple: nobody here gets outs. Birmingham took a wild card in 2000 on the strength of its arms. Last year Greg Maddux and Alejandro Peña gave up 109 home runs between them. One-effing-hundred-and-nine. The lineup put 5 men over 40 homers and the team finished last.
2001 Revisited
A year ago the read on Birmingham was blunt: they were strong on the mound, couldn’t score, and held a roster that didn’t look like a strong playoff contender. So they fixed the offense — emphatically. They shipped their own ace, Andy Pettitte, to New York for Albert Belle (a deal Birmingham still tells itself it won, never mind that Pettitte became a Bronx ace), imported Paul Konerko and Ryan Braun (for the NL All-Star arm of Jim Whitney), then Bobby Grich, and turned the box score into a fireworks show. Hank Aaron hit 51 home runs, Belle 46, Eddie Mathews 46, Jim Pagliaroni 45, Curtis Granderson 41.
And they finished dead last, 75-87, 10 out. The power was a mirage in an exploding offensive year: Belle’s 46 came with negative WAR, Aaron’s 51 with 16 walks all season, Mathews’ 46 on a .224 average, Granderson’s 41 on .206. Nobody got on base, and solo home runs are … nice?
Underneath it, the pitching everyone had worried about collapsed — Peña’s ace season evaporated, Maddux gave up 59 home runs all by himself, and the bullpen was a struggle all season (excepting the pleasant surprise of closer Harley Young). The club’s own review said it plainest: they scored way too few runs, despite hitting the ball out of the park with shocking regularity.
Key Changes
In: Bill Byrd (BAL); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BAL)
Out: Curt Flood (BAL)
Opening Day Rookies: Asdrúbal Cabrera; Melky Cabrera; Slim Embrey; Kerry Ligtenberg; Joe Torre
Best Case for 2002
They hold still. Maddux fronts a rotation for a full year, Bill Byrd takes the ball every 5th day behind him, Lefty Gomez does the same behind Byrd, and the staff ERA comes down without anyone new arriving. Asdrúbal Cabrera‘s glove holds at short, stilling a long-standing revolving door. Granderson’s platoon with Melky Cabrera covers center well enough, and the young starters — Rube Melton, Al Javery, John Malarkey — get their turns. That isn’t a juggernaut: the goal is a year that ends with more pitching than it started with, and clarity about how the offense adapts to a less HR-rich environment.
Worst Case for 2002
The same movie runs again. One Cabrera can’t play short, the other Cabrera flops in CF, and the drop in homers across the league leaves the Black Barons a team that doesn’t get on base and doesn’t do anything else, either. Then, one hot week in August makes the team sniff the playoffs, and another knee-jerk deal is done that changes the overall direction again.
Or, simply, Maddux implodes.
Key Questions
- Will Birmingham keep an arm? Pettitte is the loud example, but Whitney is really no different. All-Star arms, traded for perceived value, but leaving a vacuum behind that is always filled with slightly lesser arms (no knock on Lefty Gomez and John Malarkey, but nobody would say they prefer them to Pettitte and Whitney).
- Is the power real? Aaron, Konerko, Belle, Braun, Pagliaroni: 5 right-handed bats of consequence. But the league has changed, and Rickwood Field is projected to dampen right-handed power. This is really 2 questions: does the power maintain and, if so, do they keep it or move it on?
- Who plays shortstop? The softest spot on the roster, with no clean internal answer (not new — last year’s semi-platoon of Herman Long and Troy Tulowitzki wasn’t very good in the end). Can Cabrera seize the position? If not, is Dick Groat the answer? Or do Long or Tulo force their way back into the conversation — a likely sign of failure if it happens.
Roster Evaluation
Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.
| Pos | Players |
|---|---|
| C | Pagliaroni A · Torre |
| 1B | Konerko B · Fairly |
| 2B | Grich B · A. Cabrera |
| SS | A. Cabrera · Long D · Groat |
| 3B | Mathews B |
| LF | Braun B · Davis |
| CF | Granderson D · M. Cabrera |
| RF | Aaron B |
| DH | Belle C |
| SP | Maddux D · Byrd · Gomez D · Melton · Malarkey · Javery |
| RP | Young B (CL) · Otsuka B · Ligtenberg · Peña D · Embrey · Chen |
Look at all that gold … the lineup could be quite good.
For all the ruthlessness in the market, Birmingham is stubbornly loyal inside its own clubhouse — veterans get ridden a beat past their expiration, and Bruce Chen, the 37-year-old lefty being handed soft, low-leverage innings rather than a cold release, is the gentlest version of it.
The 9th inning is its own question. Juan Rincón saved 26 games in 2000, then came apart in 2001 — an 8.47 ERA across 34 innings — and the job now belongs to Young, who answered with a 2.29 ERA and 15 saves on results rather than stuff. 2003 shouldn’t bank on him until the command proves it holds.
Talent Ratings
| WBL | Minors | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw Power | 3B Eddie Mathews | 1B Nate Colbert |
| Batting Eye | 2B Bobby Grich | 2B Cupid Childs |
| Contact | LF Tommy Davis | 2B Cupid Childs |
| Running Speed | SS Herman Long | 3B Ricardo Hernández |
| Base Stealing | SS Herman Long | C Art Nichols; 2B Cupid Childs |
| IF Defense | SS Herman Long | 3B Mike Benjamin; 2B Jess Barbour |
| OF Defense | RF Hank Aaron | CF Lenny Dykstra |
| Stuff | RP Kerry Ligtenberg | RP Jason Grilli |
| Control | SP Al Javery | RP Carlos Diaz |
| Velocity | RP Akinori Otsuka | RP Steve Cishek |
Best In The Minors
| Rank | Age | Pos | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (22) | 22 | CF | Lenny Dykstra |
| 2 (28) | 21 | LF | Gary Matthews |
| 3 (68) | 21 | 2B | Jess Barbour |
| 4 (97) | 21 | SP | Bill James |
Others: IF Cupid Childs, IF Nate Colbert, IF Ozzie Albies, IF Richie Sexson, OF Ron Gant.
Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Joe Torre (14), Kerry Ligtenberg (58).
A year ago this list was headed by Whitney, the arm flipped to Miami for Braun, and Torre, who has since graduated into the backup-catcher job. The new man at the top, Lenny Dykstra, is himself a trade acquisition — part of the Konerko haul from Chicago. What’s left is thin but useful: Dykstra and Gary Matthews in the outfield, Jess Barbour‘s utility glove, and Bill James, clinging to the back of the top hundred. Note what isn’t there. James is the only arm in the system worth ranking (maybe Cozy Dolan, but …), and the 5 unranked names behind him — Cupid Childs, Nate Colbert, Ozzie Albies, Richie Sexson, Ron Gant — are 5 more bats.
Superlatives
| Most | Least | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Bruce Chen, 37 | Frank Gilhooley, 18 |
| Height | Richie Sexson, 6’8″ | Kid Baldwin, 5’6″ |
| OPS | Paul Konerko, .964 | George McBride, .585 (AA) |
| HR | Nate Colbert, 57 (AAA) | Brock Davis, 1 (A) |
| SB | Cupid Childs, 37 | – |
| WAR (bat) | Gary Matthews, 5.1 (A) | Pie Traynor, −1.0 (AAA) |
| W | John Malarkey, 11 | – |
| SV | Harley Young, 17 | – |
| ERA | Bill James, 3.69 (A) | Mike Leake, 6.77 (AAA) |
| WAR (pit) | Rube Melton, 3.3 (AAA) | Bill James, −0.9 (A) |
Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.