Tag: Bill Russell

▌ State of the Franchise

San Francisco won 103 games, the best record in baseball, took the Cum Posey Division, beat Detroit in the Wild Card round, swept Cleveland in the AL Championship, and then … lost the Whirled Series to Brooklyn 4-1. All of it was a surprise — the success, the expectations the success brought, and the loss to the Royal Giants.

Two years ago they were 72-82. The 31-win leap was a combination of arrivals: Turkey Stearnes stepped from the draft into the starting lineup, hitting 357/400/751 with 51 home runs and an 8.0 WAR at 22. Jimmie Foxx, also 22, brought 49 homers, Mickey Cochrane became a 3.8-WAR catcher, and Dick Lundy went from a bench body to 617 plate appearances, 57 steals and a 4.2 WAR. All of that on top of the dependable returns from Rickey Henderson, Reggie Jackson, and Jack Clark.

All of them are back. So are Lefty Grove and Eddie Plank, 28 and 27, who threw 209 and 210 innings — a strikeout ace and a horse who never misses a turn, as well as perhaps the most effective bullpen in the league.

Which leaves San Francisco in an unusual spot for a club that just lost. Nothing is broken. There’s no hole to dig out of, no veteran to move on from, no position that needs solving. They were the best team in baseball and it wasn’t enough. The only available response is to run it back and see.

▌ 2001 Revisited

We said last spring that the pitching might prove too mediocre to depend on and that the club would spend the summer tangled in its own logjams, with everything stays really confused as the worst case. That aged badly.

Grove struck out 230 in 208 innings with a 1.15 WHIP and took the AL Brock Rutherford Award. Plank won 20. Bump Hadley, a rookie, posted the staff’s best ERA at 4.10 over 188 innings and finished 2nd for the Brock Rutherford. Those 3 went a combined 54-19. Against a league that gave up 5.38 runs a game, a rotation fronted by 4.40, 4.42 and 4.10 is not mediocre — it’s the best in the league, and the raw numbers only look ordinary if you forget what year it was.

The logjam question resolved itself by everyone hitting. Jack Clark put up 51 homers and 101 walks. Jackson hit 283/394/574. Foxx hit his 49. Royce Clayton posted a .919 OPS in 146 plate appearances filling in around the infield, and Henderson did his thing — 107 walks, 126 SB.

The one thing we asked — on a team full of logjams, who steps forward? — got an unexpected answer: Stearnes arrived, and carried the franchise forward.

▌ Key Changes

In: Trevor Hoffman (POR)
Out: Royce Clayton (POR)

Opening Day Rookies: Charlie Ferguson; Bill Russell

▌ Best Case for 2002

They finish it, starting a dynasty.

That requires health, Stearnes avoiding the sophomore slump, and 2 positional moves panning out: Frank Grant solves 2B for good, and Foxx, no longer to pretend he can serve as a 3B, hits well enough to warrant the DH spot.

That’s it.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

Not a collapse. This roster is too good and too young to collapse. The crueler shape is 90+ wins and another early flight home.

The 2001 environment was inflated — the league gave up 5.38 a game and homers came at a rate nobody had seen — and if it cools, some of the spectacle goes with it.

Then there’s the part nobody can plan around. San Francisco was the overwhelming favorite last October and lost 4 games in 5. A short series doesn’t care that you won 103. Lose another and the question stops being whether this club is good and starts being whether it’s built for the months that matter.

▌ Key Questions

• Can Stearnes avoid the sophomore slump? 357/400/751, 51 homers, 8.0 WAR, AL Rookie of the Year and the AL CF Silver Slugger, at 22, in a park that suppresses left-handed power. There is no precedent here to reason from and no reason to expect a repeat except that nothing in the line looks lucky.
• Where does everyone stand up? Foxx’s 3B glove has slipped past usable, which pushes him to 1B and DH, where Jack Clark already lives. Sal Bando takes 3B on a 247/355/503 line that plays fine. That leaves Bobby Bonds — 36 home runs, 47 steals, a real everyday outfielder — with nowhere to start, behind Henderson in LF and Jackson in RF. He is the most valuable spare part in the league and the obvious piece to move if this roster ever discovers it needs something.
• Is Rod Beck actually the answer? He led the WBL with 41 saves and ran a 1.00 WHIP, and he also posted a 4.88 ERA, because when he gets hit he gets hit hard. Ken Howell was the better pitcher in front of him at 2.79 over 58 innings, and Joe Nathan and Trevor Hoffman are both here now on reputations their recent work hasn’t matched. For a club whose season will come down to 3 or 4 close games in October, the back of this bullpen may matter even more.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

Pos	Players
C	Cochrane B · Downing
1B	J. Clark A · Foxx A
2B	Grant C
SS	Lundy B · Russell
3B	Bando C · Garner
LF	Henderson B
CF	Stearnes S
RF	Jackson A · Bonds C
DH	Foxx A · Bonds C
SP	Grove A · Plank B · Hadley B · W. Clark D · Brewer
RP	Beck S (CL) · Howell B · Nathan D · Hoffman F · Heilman

One firm note on Jackson: he is the WBL’s career leader in times caught stealing, and he ran himself into 27 outs last year against 36 steals. That is 2 straight seasons under the break-even rate, on a club that scores plenty without him trying. Let’s pull the plug on Run, Reggie Run.

▌ Talent Ratings

	WBL	Minors
Raw Power	CF Turkey Stearnes	RF Frank Howard
Batting Eye	1B Jack Clark	3B Wayne Gross
Contact	2B Frank Grant	2B Ted Sizemore
Running Speed	LF Rickey Henderson	CF Mookie Wilson; CF Andres Torres
Base Stealing	LF Rickey Henderson; 2B Frank Grant	SP Dick McBride
IF Defense	3B Dick Lundy	2B Jack A Farrell
OF Defense	RF Bobby Bonds	CF Mookie Wilson
Stuff	SP Lefty Grove	RP Drew Steckenrider
Control	SP Bob Friend	RP Don Dennis
Velocity	RP Trevor Hoffman; RP Joe Nathan	RP Jonathan Broxton

▌ Best In The Minors

Rank	Age	Pos	Name
1 (30)	24	SS	Bill Sweeney
2 (95)	19	SP	John Smoltz

Others: IF Jack A Farrell, IF Jed Lowrie, OF Jay Kirke, P Pete Harnisch.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Charlie Ferguson (20).

This is the bill for the 103 wins. 2 ranked names, one a 24-year-old shortstop behind Lundy and the other a 19-year-old arm a long way off, on a club whose Minor League Pitcher of the Year (Red Ehret) and Minor League Player of the Year (Josh Reddick) are both fighting for WBL auditions.

▌ Superlatives

	Most	Least
Age	Tommy Bridges, 38	John Smoltz, 19
Height	Frank Howard, 6’7″	Walt Williams, 5’6″
OPS	Turkey Stearnes, 1.151	Charlie Ferguson, 0.504 (A)
HR	Jack Clark, 51	Charlie Ferguson, 1 (A)
SB	Rickey Henderson, 126	–
WAR (bat)	Turkey Stearnes, 8.0	Charlie Ferguson, -1.7 (A)
W	Eddie Plank, 20	–
SV	Rod Beck, 41	–
ERA	Rick Waits, 3.36 (AA)	Bob Friend, 7.24
WAR (pit)	Lefty Grove, 4.6	Tommy Bridges, -0.7

Stats across all levels, 2001. 200 PA / 75 IP min (SV: all pitchers). Non-WBL levels tagged.