Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Cal Eldred

Year III Season Preview: New York Black Yankees

State of the Franchise

team logo

There is exactly one acceptable outcome in the Bronx, and it hasn’t changed since the day Babe Ruth first pulled on the pinstripes: a Whirled Championship. Year II delivered neither the parade nor the collapse — 90-72, a Bill James Division title, and a quick playoff exit. Progress on paper; but nothing meaningful in the trophy case.

What keeps the win-now posture from being empty bluster is the age of the core. Ruth is 26. Lou Gehrig is 24. Mickey Mantle 22. Of the offensive core, only Mike Schmidt (29) and Rogers Hornsby (34) have crossed the far side of 25 (!). This is the rare club that can demand a title this year and still expect to be great for a decade — which is exactly why the front office has never once flinched at trading the future to reinforce the present. There is no future, the board sneers, there is only now.

Welcome to my supervillain origin story …

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring insisting it was all about the bullpen, and that Ron Guidry would seize the ace role in front of a revived pen fronted by Aroldis Chapman. The universe, as it does, laughed: the bullpen remained the same slow-motion catastrophe it has been for multiple years, and Guidry never made the traditional leap either: he was excellent by every advanced metric and thoroughly ordinary by the ones on the scoreboard (11-7, 4.51, but second in the league with 251 K).

Two things made up for it. Andy Pettitte, acquired for the departed Albert Belle, quietly became the ace we’d wished onto Guidry (18-9, AL All-Star). And Ruth authored maybe the best offensive season in league history (hush you voices in Detroit and Pittsburgh) — 73 homers, 167 RBI, a 1.156 OPS, runner-up for the Mel Trench Award. We had fretted about regression from Munson, Davis, and Mantle; the regression that actually arrived came from the man we’d listed as trade bait, Derek Jeter, who, at 33, slid all the way to the bottom of the SS lists in the AL.

The eternal lesson for the Black Yankees: the stars carry you, the margins betray you, and the bullpen is simply a tax you pay every year.

Key Changes

In: Ed Charles (IND); Ted Lilly (FA); Tony Mullane (FA); Gaylord Perry (NYG); Joe Sewell (CLE); Robby Thompson (NYG)

Out: Aroldis Chapman (CLE); Grant Johnson (NYG); Dave Righetti (NYG); Jeff D Robinson (IND); Red Ruffing (FA)

Opening Day Rookies: Whitey Ford

Best Case for 2002

The back of the rotation finally coheres — Gaylord Perry, the winter import, gives them a genuine third starter, one of Whitey Ford or Tony Brizzolara steps forward, and Guidry’s peripherals at last catch up to his ERA. Gehrig and Mantle keep climbing, Ruth keeps being Ruth, and — dare we dream — the bullpen merely stops actively losing games rather than winning them (a burden that weighs heavy on designated closer Goose Gossage). That team runs away with the division and, for once, keeps winning past September.

Worst Case for 2002

Jeter’s collapse turns out to be contagious. The 33-year-old shortstop and the 34-year-old Hornsby both give out up the middle, Eric Davis misses another 50 games, and the rotation behind Pettitte and Guidry is a mishmash of below-average auditions. The pen does what the pen does. 90 wins becomes 78, and the only now mandate starts ringing increasingly hollow, as the rest of the universe cheers the decline.

Key Questions

  • Who, exactly, plays shortstop? Jeter isn’t giving them enough to hold the job. Chapman was unloaded for Joe Sewell and Robby Thompson came over in the Perry trade, so look for a 3-man rotation for a while. This is the question most likely to shove New York back into the market the instant the trade window opens at the break.
  • Is there a back of the rotation? Pettitte and Guidry are locks, and Perry was brought in to solidify behind them. After that it’s an untried rookie in Ford, the only slightly tried Brizzolara, and arms with nothing actually proven (Ted Lilly, Tony Mullane).
  • Is Mattingly still a WBL first baseman? An .800-ish OPS doesn’t play at 1B, and Gehrig is standing right there. It’s not clear how long these 2 split the DH/1B role, but it’s also not clear who would take over.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CMunson C · Sanguillén
1BMattingly D · Gehrig S
2BHornsby B
3BSchmidt A · Charles
SSJeter F · Sewell · Thompson
LFRuth S
CFDavis B · Rivers
RFMantle A
DHGehrig S
SPPettitte B · Guidry C · Perry C · Ford · Brizzolara
RPGossage B (CL) · Wilhelm C · Cormier D · Robertson F · Shuey

4 bats as good as any in the league — Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, Schmidt — and not much of anything else. And the quiet standout may be the one nobody talks about: Schmidt hit 45 homers with a .914 OPS and plays a real third base, the connoisseur’s Yankee the sharper fans prize precisely because the box-score crowd looks past him.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerLF Babe RuthLF Jackie Warner
Batting EyeLF Babe Ruth1B Nick Etten
ContactC Manny Sanguillén; 1B Don MattinglyRF Rich Coggins
Running SpeedCF Eric DavisCF Cecil Espy
Base StealingCF Eric DavisCF Cecil Espy
IF Defense3B Mike Schmidt1B J C Martin
OF DefenseLF Babe RuthRF Nick Swisher
StuffRP David RobertsonRP Jesse Orosco
ControlSP Gaylord PerrySP Noah Syndergaard
VelocityRP David RobertsonRP Dan Plesac

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (67)24SSCharlie Irwin

Others: OF Rich Coggins, IF John Kruk, P Noah Syndergaard, OF Jackie Warner.

Meh, who cares.

A year ago, this list ran 7 deep, almost all arms. Where did they go? Whitey Ford and Tony Brizzolara graduated into the back of the rotation; Jake Peavy, last spring’s No. 2, was the centerpiece headed to Portland for Rogers Hornsby; Carlos Rodón and Elliott Maddox were shipped out in other deals; and last year’s No. 1, Noah Syndergaard, has slid off the national board entirely (still only 22, throwing at AAA). What’s left is Charlie Irwin, a 24-year-old vaguely mediocre looking shortstop.

New York still owns the worst farm system in the league by a distance.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeJesse Orosco, 36John Ryan Murphy, 18
HeightNoah Syndergaard, 6’6″Joe Sewell, 5’6″
OPSBabe Ruth, 1.156Heinie Groh, .540 (AAA)
HRBabe Ruth, 73Heinie Groh, 2 (AAA)
SBEric Davis, 64
WAR (bat)Babe Ruth, 7.7Derek Jeter, −1.5
WAndy Pettitte, 18
SVGoose Gossage, 20
ERAArt Ditmar, 2.94 (AA)Herm Wehmeier, 6.54
WAR (pit)Ron Guidry, 4.8Cal Eldred, −1.5 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

TWIWBL 56.2: Spring Training Notes – New York Black Yankees

Spring Training Questions

The pitching staff will be under great scrutiny, with 5th round pick Noah Syndergaard having an outside shot at the rotation.

Last season the Black Yankees were hampered by limited MI flexibility, which will be a concern they want to address.

First Cuts

Things on the mound went much as expected for New York, as Cal Eldred, Don Liddle, Paul Shuey, Frank Viola, Bill Monbouquette, and John Danks all moved on to the minor leagues. Dave Righetti remains in camp, but his control continues to be a concern. On the other side, Lefty Gomez, Noah Syndergaard, and Whitey Ford have all impressed out of the gate.

Darrin Fletcher and Benny Bengough were both reassigned, with the Black Yankees planning to take a look at Ron Pruitt behind the plate as a 4th option. Fred Whitfield and Nick Etten have impressed at 1B, with Ryan Garko being sent to the minors while at 3B Aaron Hill and Elliott Maddox have been stellar (and Héctor López quite good), while Josh Harrison and Red Rolfe were both moved to the minors.

The 2B/SS situation was quite convoluted but poor starts from Mark Grudzielanek, Jess Barbour, Charlie Irwin, and Alcides Escobar have helped clear some space as all four of those IFers were reassigned, with Willie Randolph barely hanging on to a spot in camp.

In the OF, despite there not being much room on the eventual roster, only Bill Lange was moved from the major league camp, although there are doubts as to how long Clyde Milan and Nick Swisher will stick around.

Second Cuts

Other than Jeff Nelson, the pitching has been excellent for the Black Yankees, with nobody else posting an ERA over 3.00. Nelson heads to the minors while New York tries to sort out the rest.

C Gary Alexander was recalled for some depth, and to see if his impressive power holds up against better pitching.

Nick Swisher, Willie Randolph, and Ron Pruitt were sent down as well.

Third Cuts

Lady Baldwin and Vic Raschi were sent down, clearing up the back end of the staff a bit. Whitey Ford and Sparky Lyle are next on the chopping block, depending on what they do over the next week or so.

Eric MacKenzie, Pee Wee Reese, Red Rolfe, and Roger Maris were all sent to AAA. MacKenzie’s demotion keeps Gary Alexander in camp for a while, as much for his defensive flexibility as anything else.

While the IF starters–Tom Herr, Derek Jeter, and Mike Schmidt–are pretty much set, it’s unclear how the reserves will sort out, with Aaron Hill, Héctor López, and Elliott Maddux all making cases for roster spots. Veteran Doug DeCinces looks like he may be done, but he’ll be given another week to turn it around.

Final Cuts

SS Alex Arias was the first to go, in a move that would seem to indicate that Aaron Hill will break camp as the backup infielder for the Black Yankees. That was followed by the demotion of P Dewey Adkins, always considered a long shot to make the opening day roster.

1B Fred Whitfield had a good Spring, but there’s just too much blocking him at 1B, moving him to AAA for the time being.

Gary Alexander was pulled into camp to take some of the load behind the plate. He showed some pop, but little else, and was moved back to AAA as was Hardy Richardson, who was outperformed throughout the Spring by several lesser regarded prospects.

Whitey Ford clearly has the arm to have a future in the WBL, but his time is yet to come as the young lefty will start the season at AAA. He’ll be joined by veteran AJ Burnett, who had a spectacular Spring but was edged out by rookie Noah Syndergaard for the last spot on New York’s staff.

Aaron Hill was sent to AAA, cementing roster spots for Héctor López and Elliott Maddox and, perhaps surprisingly, sending veteran 3B Doug DeCinces (who was adequate as Mike Schmidt‘s backup last season) down as well. Maddox and López were retained partially for their defensive flexibility, pushing both Clyde Milan and recent acquisition Mickey Rivers to the minors.

All of that meant that Spring surprise Nick Etten starts the season with the Black Yankees.

Oh yeah … Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig made the team …

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