In the NL, we have the winners of each division–the Brooklyn Royal Giants in the Effa Manley Division and the Houston Colt 45’s in the Marvin Miller Division–facing off after each had relatively easy 5-1 wins in the Wild Card Round.
It should be an interesting series. Brooklyn’s staff has been fantastic all year, with a quartet of Orel Hershiser, Don Drysedale, Smokey Joe Williams, and Fernando Valenzuela leading the way and a top-notch bullpen, anchored by Eric Gagne. Houston has the potential to match them, but it’s been far less predictable. Toad Ramsey was the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this season, and Roger Clemens excellent behind him. After that, though question marks emerge. Ice Box Chamberlain has been very strong down the stretch, but Stephen Strasburg and Roy Oswalt have had miserable seasons. And the bullpen has been Houston’s Achilles’ heel all year: using Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, and Jim Kern to get to Tug McGraw and Sparky Lyleshould be excellent, but has not been.
So, Brooklyn has the edge on the mound, but it’s not as wide as might be thought.
Offensively, both teams are surprisingly effective. Brooklyn has more power, Houston a more solid unit top to bottom. Houston’s Craig Biggio and Brooklyn’s Ron Cey could both bounce back from a weak opening series, but in general these teams performed very well offensively.
Brooklyn will keep their roster intact–there are some moves that could happen in the bullpen, but Burleigh Grimes–the most likely candidate for replacement–didn’t give up a run in 3 appearances. Dickie Thon is still not available to play, as his abdominal strain is proving quite stubborn. For Houston, they would love to find a way to bring Casey Stengel or Vida Blue onto the roster, but with them not being able to find time for Gorman Thomas as it is and the strong performances of their bullpen so far, both stay off the roster for now.
Sailing under the radar for most of the season, Brooklyn still managed 99 victories, led by a ridiculously strong pitching staff.
The Royal Giants are one of the a very few teams with a legitimate top 4, and it’s unclear if Don Drysedale‘s 2nd half resurgence earns him a start in the opening game, given that Orel Hershiser (19-5, 3.69), Smokey Joe Williams (12-13, 3.93), and Fernando Valenzuela (14-5, 3.69) each had better seasons than Drysedale’s 11-8, 5.66 record.
The bullpen sports 2 of the dominant relievers of the league, with closer Eric Gagne and setup man Trevor Hildenberger, and Burleigh Grimes and Sandy Koufax provide excellent middle inning help when needed.
The offense is a notch below the pitching: Ron Cey and Mike Piazza are stars, and Dan Brouthers, John Briggs, Jackie Robinson, Beals Becker, and Duke Snider are all quite good. Vern Stephens and Dickie Thon seem to be sufficient at SS, and the versatility of Ray Dandridge helps around the IF, despite his lackluster offense.
George Hendrick has been lights out since being brought over in a trade, and makes the playoff roster ahead of swing starter Jim Bunning.
#Philadelphia Stars
Quite a turnaround for Philly, who were horrible last year, mediocre much of this year, and then turned it on the final few months to finish in 2nd place in the Effa Manley Division.
It’s an odd team in many ways. Clearly, Charles Rogan and his unique combination of a 308/362/620 slash line and legitimate #2 starter mound performances count for a lot, as does Aaron Judge breaking out with an OPS over 1.000, 63 homers, 133 RBI’s, and 108 runs scored. Scott Rolen is excellent at 3B, and Rico Carty held off the demons of age for another productive season.
And then the question marks start … Bill Dickey seems to be the answer behind the plate, but is untested, Sherry Magee could be useful, and the newly acquired Jim Fregosi might finally provide some stability at SS. Seems, could be, might …
The rotation is … odd. Hardie Henderson (18-12, 3.78) is probably the #1, but Steve Carlton‘s stuff is electric, despite a 12-13 record and a 5.05 ERA. Then, Rogan. Behind those, JM Ward has been far, far, far better than his 6-10 record would indicate and lefty Ray Collins is dependable.
Bob Howry, Ted Kennedy, Fred Cambria, and Pedro Feliciano form a solid, no-name bullpen (with trade acquisition Mark Melancon‘s selection to the postseason roster in doubt).
In the end, Melancon made it, as did the disappointing Harry Hooper, but that was more a function of a lack of relevant alternatives than anything else.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Most saw this Houston team as being a year or 2 away, but they kept winning through the Summer, and ended up topping the Marvin Miller Division by a comfortable margin.
The pitching staff is not structured as it was to start the season, as both Stephen Strasburg and Roy Oswalt have struggled mightily all season. Still, it’s a strong opening trio, led by the dominant Toad Ramsey (16-10, 3.23) and Roger Clemens (17-10, 3.71) and the now-healthy Ice Box Chamberlain (4-4, 3.56).
The bullpen has been poor all season, with Sparky Lyle (brought over to be the closer) struggling and Tug McGraw having his issues as well. Jim Kern has been a surprising bright spot, and Andrew Chafin and Roberto Osuna have been solid enough.
The offense is an intriguing mix. Carlos Correa, Jeff Bagwell, and Tony Gwynn are a solid core and Paul Goldschmidt has forced his way into the conversation in about 1/3 of a season’s work. Gentleman Jim O’Rourke has bounced back from a poor first season, and the rest of the pieces–mostly Jim Wynn and teenage phenom Pete Hill–are solid enough.
The worst news for Houston is that C Will Smith, who has absolutely destroyed WBL pitching since his recall, is not eligible for the postseason, putting the onus behind the plate on Jorge Posada, who has struggled. Given the presence of Gorman Thomas–who has also been on fire in limited action–we may see O’Rourke catching more than anticipated.
Thomas’ performance forced Casey Stengel off the playoff roster, as, especially with Dock Ellis injured for a few days, both Strasbourg and Oswalt made it.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
It came down to a playoff, but baseball fans are happy to see the ABC’s make the playoffs, as it extends the season for the best pitcher in baseball, Luis Padrón, and the emerging superstar Oscar Charleston.
The postseason likely brings an end to Indianapolis’ 6 man rotation, as the team will try to maximize the starts for Padrón (23-3, 3.22) and Johnny Cueto (12-14, 4.62). Eppa Rixey, Guy White, and Joe Lake are the most likely candidates behind those 2.
The back end of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but both Rob Dibble and Rob Murphy have struggle of late, leaving Jack Billingham and the surprising Mike LaCoss as the strongest performers at the moment.
Offensively, this is Charleston’s team, with the young CF slashing 337/381/619 with 38 homers, 130 RBIs, and 101 runs scored. Joey Votto and George Foster have been excellent and while Johnny Bench fell short of last year’s heights, 46 homers and 116 RBIs from behind the plate is nothing to sneeze at.
Chris Sabo has mostly displaced Ed Charles at 3B, but the biggest issue is the absence of Joe Morgan, who will miss the postseason through injury. Morgan was among the best in the game, and without him, the middle infield becomes pretty mediocre, relying on Tommy Helms and Barry Larkin.
#Predictions
Brooklyn is just that much better than Indianapolis across the board, so I think the Royal Giants take that one, 4-2.
The Houston/Philadelphia series is even harder to predict, and I think it is either very close, going the full 7 games, or Houston’s offense clicks on all cylinders and the Colt 45’s win in 5. Let’s say the former, with Houston edging it in a final contest.
Bobby Grich had started his time with Birmingham in an 0-17 slump, but hit an early homerun and a late double in a 9-7 win over the ABC’s. Jim Pagliaroni was the hero, as his walk off grand slam in the 13th, his 36th dinger of the year, was the difference.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Tug McGraw and Casey Stengel were recalled from their rehab assignments.
Thanks to a game shortened by rain to 5 innings, Toad Ramsey got credit for his 3rd shutout and 7th complete game of the season, allowing 1 hit to Kansas City on a 1-0 win for Houston.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
Indianapolis recalled pitchers Eddie Watt and Paul Derringer from AAA, along with position players Dan Driessen, Dave Henderson, Ross Youngs, Ed Swartwood, and Hal Morris.
Luis Padrón won his league-leading 18th game, carrying a 3 hit shutout into the 9th inning. He tired rapidly, and eventually needed help from the bullpen in the 7-3 win over Birmingham, but still fanned 11 batters in the effort.
Johnny Bench hit 2 out, including a 3 run shot in the top of the 13th, but it wasn’t enough as the ABC’s fell to Birmingham, 9-7.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Where has this been all year? Luke Hamlin needed help at the end, but still combined with Craig Kimbrel on a 2 hit shutout as the Monarchs topped the Gothams, 4-0.
Dale Murphy‘s 25th homer of the year helped support (another) great effort from A. Rube Foster as the Monarchs topped Houston, 2-1. Foster reached double-digits in wins, improving his record to 10-5.
#Wandering House of David
The House of David hit 7 homeruns, 3 by Mark McGwire, in a 9-2 win over Birmingham. As importantly, it was another solid outing from Jack Taylor, who may have emerged from the horrors of the first half of his season. McGwire now has 14 homers in about 100 PA’s, arguing for a WBL role despite struggling to move his average over .200.
Pete Browning was recalled from his latest rehab assignment, along with Tony Conigliaro, Billy Williams, and Billy Herman. Pitchers Scott Downs, Kerry Wood, and Frank Sullivan also joined the big league club.
We’ve been waiting for a long time for someone, anyone, in the WBL to hit 4 homeruns in a game. What we didn’t expect was that a rookie would do it, let alone in his first game. But that’s what Tony Conigliaro did: 3 homeruns, followed by being hit by a pitch, followed by a 9th inning shot for his 4th of the day. Mark McGwire hit 2, and between the 2 of them, Conigliaro and McGwire drove in 9 runs in the 11-9 win over Philadelphia.
Ernie Banks had 5 hits and 2 homeruns in a 13 inning, 11-10 victory over Philadelphia and then Banks did it again, with another 2 homers in an extra-inning affair, this one a 15 inning marathon win over the Stars by a score of 5-3. Banks now has 50 homeruns on the season.
Houston is just an odd team right now. Solid starting pitching, good speed, a strong ability to get on base … but very little power, a horrendous bullpen, and some very unsettled positions, at least at present.
THE OFFENSE
The most important thing is how young this team is. Only Jorge Posada (36) and Jim O’Rourke (29) are on the far side of the magic age of 27, and and George Brett and Jim Wynn (23), Carlos Correa (22), and Pete Hill (19) are well under it.
#What’s Going Right
Jeff Bagwell, Carlos Correa, and Tony Gwynn all have OPS over .900, although Gwynn’s has fallen since an earlier flirtation with a .400 BA. Bagwell looks to be on the very edge of stardom, but it is Correa, who is slashing 326/404/553, who may be the biggest surprise.
Jim Wynn has 27 HRs, second on the team to Bagwell’s 28.
Jim O’Rourke has bounced back from a disappointing first season, slashing 258/362/500 in a super-utility role.
Mention must be made of Paul Goldschmidt, who has 8 homers in under 100 PAs, making the most of his limited chances.
#What’s Not Going Right
Jorge Posada struggles offensively, with an OPS under .750. Not horrific for a backstop, but not good.
Pete Hill continue to show power, but his .765 OPS won’t cut it in a WBL OF. BUT, Hill is 19, so you could also see this as part of what’s going right.
George Brett and Craig Biggio both continue to show flashes of great talent, along with long periods of low production. But with the departure of HR Johnson, the team seems committed to each of them for the future.
Andrés Galarraga bounced down from an excellent first season, earning himself a trip to AAA.
THE PITCHING
A real challenge: there are some truly top end performances here in Ramsey and Clemens, and then a lot of potential. And lets not even discuss the bullpen.
Some of the same comments as with the position players: Oswalt is the aged veteran of the crew at 27, so this is a very young staff (and that doesn’t even account for teenage phenom Leon Day at AAA).
#What’s Going Right
Toad Ramsey is putting together one of the best seasons in WBL history, sitting at 13-9 with a a3.19 ERA and 217 strikeouts. The knuckleballer has been absolutely dominant, with a 6.6 WAR on the mound so far.
Roger Clemens has been excellent, matching Ramsey in wins with a very impressive 3.60 ERA of his own.
Andrew Chafin has been excellent in the bullpen, as have (in very limited action so far) Jim Kern and Roberto Osuna (Kern is a special surprise, after being torched last season).
Ice Box Chamberlain seems to have recovered from injury, posting a 3.41 ERA over his 7 starts.
#What’s Not Going Right
Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasbourg are just frustrating, mixing good outings with horrible one, with both of them posting ERA’s over 6.00.
The bullpen has been quite poor, especially since Tug McGraw–fairly effective as a closer–hit the DL.
John Franco and Chafin are the only arms left from the start of the year, with Brad Lidge, Kent Tekulve, and Billy Wagner all having moved back to AAA (and, in Tekulve’s case, out of the system entirely).
This is a strong system, at least on the field. In the OF, César Cedeño (who was OK in the WBL earlier in the season), Kirby Puckett (who wasn’t), Shin-Soo Choo, and Von Joshua all have some promise.
3B Edgar Martínez may be the best bat in the system, and SS Travis Jackson clearly has WBL talent. Add to that C Will Smith–who may replace Posada as soon as next season–and you have a decent amount of talent.
On the mound, it’s a little more spare, but Vida Blue and Leon Day are still teenagers as is Ice Box Chamberlain. Additionally, at least a couple from the group of Bret Saberhagen, Bill Harper, Carlos Rodón (part of the HR Johnson trade), and Rick Wise should emerge as WBL rotation starters.
WHAT’S NEEDED
The Colt 45’s just need to continue to develop, especially on the mound.
Storylines to Watch
Key Questions from Spring Training
Can the bullpen perform? Some indications (McGraw, Chad Qualls, and Andrew Chafin‘s performance last year in small samples) are positive; others not so much (the size of those samples, Kent Tekulve‘s challenges). In a word, no. Although, McGraw should be back soon, and he, Chafin, and the newly-acquired Sparky Lyle do give Houston as good a trio of lefties as you can want.
Who emerges at C? Evidently, nobody. Currently, it rotates between Posada, Craig Biggio, and O’Rourke, but the latter two are really not catchers. Look for Will Smith here next season.
FEATURED SERIES
Houston heads to Homestead to start the week for a four game series.
Projected Starters
Houston’s starter listed first.
Ice Box Chamberlain (2-3, 3.41) @ David Price (3-6, 5.33) Toad Ramsey (13-9, 3.19) @ Doug Drabek (4-5, 5.04) Roger Clemens (13-8, 3.60) @ Billy Pierce (9-7, 5.07) Roy Oswalt (6-8, 6.44) @ Juan Marichal (8-11, 6.10)
I mean, a sweep is not out of the question. But both of these teams are just so inconsistent, I would say a series split is the most likely outcome.
Game One
David Price‘s debut start for Homestead gets to wait a little while, as Doug Drabek gets the nod for the Grays against Ice Box Chamberlain.
Paul Goldschmidt drove in a run with a single in the top of the first but Willie Stargell tied it up in the bottom of the frame. Chamberlain struggled with his command, surrendering a solo shot to Rick Reichardt, then hitting both Owen Wilson and Honus Wagner. But he settled down and got out of the inning without further damage.
The bottom of the 5th saw Josh Gibson–already with 2 doubles on the day–go deep for his 35th homerun, extending the lead to 5-1.
The Colt 45’s closed to 5-3 in the 6th, chasing Drabek from the mound with 2 outs on an RBI groundout from Carlos Correa and a seeing eye single through the left side from Goldschmidt.
Tony Gwynn brought the Colt 45’s within 1, and then, in the top of the 9th and facing the newly-aquired Robb Nen, Jim Wynn launched one out of the park to tie the game. Then Gorman Thomas hit his 4th homerun in 15 at-bats and, out of nowhere, Houston had a 7-5 lead. Nen couldn’t make it out of the inning, and when the smoke cleared, the Colt 45’s had a 4 run lead, 9-5.
Craig Biggio, Gwynn, and Goldschmidt each had 3 hits for Houston while Gibson had 4 hits and 3 RBI’s for the Grays in a losing effort.
Game two will see the stellar Toad Ramsey face off against Homestead’s Billy Pierce.
After a Tony Gwynn double, Jeff Bagwell drove in his 90th run of the year with a single in the top of the first. Jim Wynn followed with his 29th homer of the year, and the Colt 45’s staked Ramsey to a 3-0 lead.
But this Grays team is hard to put away: Rick Reichardt hit a 2 run shot, making it a 1 run game.
Houston seemed to have Pierce’s number, though: Pete Hill and Jorge Posada hit back to back homers in the 2nd, and Jim O’Rourke singled in another run in the 4th, extending the lead to 6-2.
Back to back doubles from Andrew McCutcheon and Judy Johnson made it 6-3, but that was really it. Houston scored some more, notably on Posada’s second drive of the game, but the outcome had already been secured for Houston.
HOU 10 (Ramsey 14-9) @ HOM 3 (Pierce 9-8) HRs: HOU – Wynn (29), Posada 2 (11), Hill (8); HOM – Reichardt (35). Box Score
Game Three
Bartolo Colón will take the ball for the Grays in game 3, opposed by Houston’s Roger Clemens as the Colt 45’s look to take the first 3 of the series.
Josh Gibson took Clemens deep in the bottom of the 1st, and Roberto Clemente did the same in the 2nd for an early Grays lead. Meanwhile, Colón was dealing, allowing no runs and 3 hits over 5 innings.
Clemens had to exit with back pain after 5, relieved by Dock Ellis.
Homestead added 2 more on an Andy Van Slyke bomb in the 8th, but the story was Colón, who took the mound in the 9th with a 3 hit shutout. He walked Craig Biggio with 2 outs, but got Tony Gwynn to fly out to LF to preserve the shutout and, more importantly, the victory.
With the shutout, Colón lowered his ERA on the year to 0.45 over 20 innings.
HOU 0 (Oswalt 6-8; Blue 1 H; Kern 1 H) @ HOM 4 (Williams 10-11) HRs: HOU – none; HOM – Gibson (36), Clemente (21), Van Slyke (24). Box Score
It was good news for Houston after the game, as Clemens is expected to make his next start.
Game Four
Roy Oswalt will try to get the Colt 45’s the series win, but Cliff Lee, making his first start since his injury, will try to even it up for Homestead. Both teams have minor league franchises deep in the thick of it and hence have not yet benefitted from the full roster expansion.
Oswalt has struggled all year, laboring to a 6-8 record and an ERA in the mid 6.00’s.
Paul Goldschmidt drove in a run in the top of the first, but the score was evened at 1 when Judy Johnson scored on a passed ball. The Grays surged ahead, 4-1, on a 2 run shot from Goose Goslin and a solo homer from Andrew McCutcheon in the 2nd.
A bad throw from McCutcheon allowed a run to score for Houston in the 5th, halving the lead to 4-2, Homestead.
Oswalt couldn’t make it out of the 5th, as a walk to Willie Stargell and a single by Mike Epstein prompted Houston to turn to young Vida Blue out of the pen.
Goldschmidt chased Lee with a game-tying shot into the right field stands in the 6th, and his relief, Bob Friend, allowed a deep shot to George Brett, giving the 1 run lead back to Houston at 5-4. Johnson went yard in the 6th, and we were all tied once more, 5-5.
McCutcheon’s second error of the day allowed Ice Box Chamberlain (on as a pinch runner) to score the go-ahead run in the 7th as Casey Stengel celebrated his return from a rehab assignment with a slow bouncer up the middle that the Grays’ CF let go under his glove.
Jim Wynn added a homerun, and–perhaps more importantly–Tug McGraw and Sparky Lyle closed the game out, offering hope for some stability at the back end of the Colt 45’s bullpen.
Houston took the series, putting themselves in prime position to overtake Kansas City for the Division lead. It was a strong performance: power, starting pitching, and most importantly, a bullpen that may be finally coming together at the most important time of the year.
The trading deadline is only a week away, so that becomes a bit of the focus for both this week and next.
#Awards
Ottawa‘s Gary Carter had 6 homeruns and a .450 average last week, earning him the National League Player of the Week honors while over in the AL, Player of the Week accolades went to Los Angeles‘ Kal Daniels. Daniels, who is having a borderline MVP candidate season, went 14-for-25 on the week, raising his overall batting average to .353.
#Team Performance
Cleveland and Brooklyn have both put some distance between themselves and their chase packs: in the Bill James Division, Cleveland (9-1 over their last 10 games) leads the New York Black Yankees by 4 games while in the Effa Manley Division, Brooklyn is now up by a whopping 10.5 over Homestead.
With the San Francisco Sea Lions running away with the Cum Posey Division (with the best record in baseball, they currently hold an 18.5 game lead), that leaves the Marvin Miller Division as the only currently close race, with the Kansas City Monarchs in first and Birmingham in last, with only 4.5 games separating the 5 teams in the division.
We’ll start to pay more attention to the Wild Card standings soon, for now, the Black Yankees and the Detroit Wolverines would make it in the AL, with Homestead and the surprising Ottawa Mounties in the NL. However, those races are all still very close.
With 5 losses in a row, Baltimore has recovered the worst record in the league with a .427 winning percentage (they briefly ceded this dubious honor to the Chicago American Giants, who have improved just enough to move ahead of the Black Barons).
#Player Performance
#Batters
What jumps out at me most is how widespread the talent is. This list has the top 2 performers in all categories, yet each team is only represented once.
Ron Blomberg (CLE). 295/361/688. 125 RBI. José Canseco (MCG). 260/369/740. 52 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 348/388/650. 157 H, 12 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 370/426/788. 154 H, 47 2B, 104 R, 6.4 WAR. Kal Daniels (LAA). 353/444/660. Josh Gibson (HOM). 408/507/790. 8.1 WAR. Joe Jackson (CAG). 352/406/586. 51 2B. Bullet Joe Rogan (PHI). 287/341/610. 12 3B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 280/411/730. 53 HR,126 RBI, 106 R, 87 BB. Ted Williams (MEM). 308/427/653. 80 BB.
#Pitchers
#Starters
All 5 players with at least 14 wins are listed, as well as the top 2 in other categories.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 8-4, 3.01. 0.98 WHIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 14-4, 4.12. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-7, 4.40. 197 K. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 15-5, 3.79. Bump Hadley (SFS). 16-5, 4.11. Luis Padrón (IND). 16-3, 3.36. Eddie Plank (SFS). 15-5, 4.32. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 13-8, 3.13. 207 K, 0.98 WHIP, 3.19 FIP, 6.4 WAR. Jim Whitney (MCG). 8-3, 2.86. 0.98 WHIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 10-9, 3.82. 3.58 WHIP, 5.1 WAR.
#Relievers
3 closers have 25+ saves, including Brooklyn’s Eric Gagne, who may be the most dominant fireman in the league at the moment. If it’s not Gagne, it’s one of the relievers who have recently taken over the closer role for their teams: Chicago’s Akinori Otsuka or Kansas City’s Craig Kimbrel.
25 Min IP.
Rod Beck (SFS). 4-3, 5.23. 27 Sv, 1 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 2-1, 2.52. 25 Sv. Eddie Guardado (KCM). 2-1, 2.11. 1 Sv, 8 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-6, 5.36. 1 Sv, 17 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 3-4, 2.23. 7 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 7-3, 3.56. 27 Sv. Akinori Otsuka (CAG). 5-1, 1.85. 6 Sv, 5 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 2-3, 4.95. 1 Sv, 14 H.
#Game of the Week
So so close to the no no.
Pitching on short rest, Indianapolis‘ Johnny Cueto delivered 5 hitless innings in a start against Ottawa … then Clay Carroll added 2 more, and Rob Murphy another. Which meant Rob Dibble came in for the bottom of the 9th with the ABC’s leading 7-0 and throwing a combined no-hitter. Dibble got Roberto Alomar to groundout, Larry Walker to whiff … and then gave up a long fly ball to Gary Carter that just barely cleared the outfield fence, ruining the shutout and the no-no.
IND 7 (Carroll 1-2) @ OTT 1 (Radbourn 11-10) HRs: IND – Dunn (33), Charleston (30), Votto (26); OTT – Carter (44). Box Score
#Injury Report
Not a lot of impact here right now: names that might see a rehab stint this week include John Tudor (BAL), Bob Brown (OTT), Ross Reynolds (LAA), and Casey Stengel (HOU).
JP Arencibia continued to grow in Black Barons’ folklore, tying the league record with 3 homeruns in a 13-5 victory over Brooklyn. Albert Belle went deep twice and Bob Nieman, Gene Tenace, and Adrían González each homered once for Birmingham. John Malarkey was decent, improving to 5-2 on the season.
#Houston Colt 45’s
With Casey Stengel set to miss over a month, the Colt 45’s made 2 moves, first sending struggling 1B/DH Andrés Galarraga to AAA in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt, who will slide into the same role and then also recalling closer Roberto Osuna to help out in the bullpen.
George Brett had 3 doubles and Tony Gwynn added 3 hits of his own as the Colt 45’s topped Kansas City, 10-7. After a(nother) poor start from Roy Oswalt, Houston’s bullpen finally delivered up to expectations, with Dock Ellis getting the win and John Franco, Brad Lidge, and Tug McGraw closing out the contest.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
The ABC’s finally ran out of patience with Dick Tidrow, and when the veteran refused to be demoted, Indianapolis released him. The ABC’s recalled Mike LaCoss from AAA.
OF Jake Stenzel started a rehab assignment, although it’s not clear where Stenzel fits in once he’s recalled to the WBL.
Joe Morgan went deep twice, but a late comeback was thwarted as the ABC’s fell to Birmingham, 9-8.
#Kansas City Monarchs
Bad news for the Monarchs, as Lou Brock will miss 6-7 months with a broken bone. With Kansas City struggling, the Monarchs decided to reach down to AA and give the awfully impressive Cool Papa Bell a chance. Bell–perhaps even faster than Brock–was slashing 376/428/656 at Oklahoma City before his recall. It’s a bold move, but one that perhaps overlooks what Merv Rettenmund has done at AAA.
José Rijo continues to run hot and cold in the extreme: the owner of the WBL’s only no-hitter combined with Jeff Pfeffer on a 4 hit shutout of Houston. Rijo whiffed 10 and Ducky Medwick tripled and homered in the 3-0 victory.
The Monarchs demolished Houston behind a complete game effort from Smokey Joe Wood, who improved his record to 10-6. Both Ted Simmons and Willie McGee had 3 doubles and Medwick drove in 5 as Kansas City pounded out 19 hits in the 14-1 win.
#Wandering House of David
Sammy Sosa went deep 3 times (for the 2nd time this season) and Ernie Banks twice as the House of David overcame a rough start to beat Homestead, 12-6. Banks and Sosa drove in 4 runs each, and Ron Santo added 3 RBI’s, with the win going to Bob Rush, who improved to 7-6 despite giving up 6 runs in 5 innings.
Ferguson Jenkins put on what was easily his best outing of the year, allowing 3 hits in 7 shutout innings while fanning 11 in a 5-2 win over Homestead.
We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.
#Awards
Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!
First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.
In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.
Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.
Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).
#Team Performance
Yawn.
The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.
The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.
The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.
Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).
#Player Performance
Batters
It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.
José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR. Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B. Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR. Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR. Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H. Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B. Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B. Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B. Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR. Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.
Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.
Pitchers
Starters
While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.
7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.
Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22. A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP. Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR. Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR. Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR. Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87. Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR. Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54. Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR. Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP. Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.
Relievers
We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.
18 IP minimum.
Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv. Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H. Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv. Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H. Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H. Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H. Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H. Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv. Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H. Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H. Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H. BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H. Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.
#Injury Report
Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.
Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.
Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.
#The All Star Candidates
We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.
For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.
If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).
Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.
#C
The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Josh Gibson
HOM / NL
1.229
5.1 WAR; 67 RBI
3.1 FRM
Gary Carter
OTT /NL
1.073
28 HR
47.1 RTO%
Mike Piazza
BRK / NL
1.042
29 HR; 65 RBI
4.87 CERA
Ed Bailey
DET / AL
.972
57 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim Pagliaroni
BBB / NL
.925
61 G/231 PA
Mickey Cochrane
SFS / AL
.917
10 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted Simmons
KCM / NL
.900
63 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster Posey
NYG / NL
.870
3.8 FRM
Joe Mauer
POR / AL
.856
14 SB
Curt Blefary
BAL /AL
.826
Carlton Fisk
CAG / AL
.800
67 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA
The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.
I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.
Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.
#1B
The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Lou Gehrig
NYY / AL
1.057
28 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI
.995 Fldg
Will Clark
NYG / NL
1.006
Frank Thomas
CAG / AL
1.004
Hank Greenberg
DET / AL
.991
26 HR
.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike Epstein
HOM / NL
.965
Anthony Rizzo
HOD / NL
.964
Lance Berkman
CLE / AL
.957
Jim Thome
MCG / AL
.927
28 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff Bagwell
HOU / NL
.923
66 RBI
.995 Fldg
Boog Powell
KCM / NL
.920
.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.
#2B
The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Joe Morgan
IND / NL
1.088
47 G/199 PA
Roberto Alomar
OTT/ NL
1.008
21 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne Sandberg
HOD / NL
.995
28 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie Robinson
BRK / NL
.938
Rogers Hornsby
POR / AL
.919
53 G/234 PA
Charlie Gehringer
DET / AL
.876
57 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie Collins
CAG / AL
.850
36 SB
Bobby Grich
LAA / AL
.845
15 HR
Craig Biggio
HOU / NL
.841
Chase Utley
PHI / NL
.781
4.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie Rojas
MCG / AL
.766
27 2B
.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.
In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.
#SS
It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ernie Banks
HOD/ NL
.978
30 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.
BAL / AL
.967
39 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos Correa
HOU/ NL
.929
18 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky Vaughan
CLE / AL
.887
19 2B; 2.4 WAR
6.3 ZR
Álex Rodríguez
OTT / NL
.885
23 HR
Robin Yount
MCG / AL
.845
15 HR
5.8 ZR
Jim Fregosi
POR / AL
.793
Dick Lundy
SFS / AL
.783
7 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek Jeter
NYY / AL
.762
Dobie Moore
MEM / AL
.750
22 SB
.983 Fldg
Ozzie Smith
KCM / NL
.672
19 2B; 25 SB
.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.
Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.
This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.
#3B
The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Albert Pujols
KCM / NL
1.046
32 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron Cey
BRK / NL
.967
2.4 WAR
.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary Sheffield
MCG/ AL
.929
22 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan Longoria
CLE / AL
.926
2.2 ZR
Mike Schmidt
NYY / AL
.926
23 HR; 55 RBI
2.59 RF
Scott Rolen
PHI / NL
.922
2.1 WAR
.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron Santo
HOD /NL
.906
52 G/192 PA
Eddie Mathews
BBB / NL
.904
24 HR
.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade Boggs
MEM / AL
.896
26 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.
#OF
All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.
#LF
When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Babe Ruth
NYY / AL
1.201
40 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR
.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted Williams
MEM / AL
1.063
23 2B; 65 RBI
Frank Robinson
BAL / AL
1.035
24 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR
1.000 Fldg
Adam Dunn
IND / NL
.906
24 HR
.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy White
BRK / NL
.866
Oscar Gamble
DET / AL
.852
Rickey Henderson
SFS / AL
.840
2.8 WAR; 60 SB
7.2 ZR
Tim Raines
OTT / NL
.773
7 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.
#CF
Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Rick Monday
OTT /NL
1.172
41 G/136 PA
Tris Speaker
CLE / AL
1.088
31 2B; 4.0 WAR
2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey Stearnes
SFS / AL
1.065
7 3B; 24 HR
Eric Davis
NYY / AL
1.058
26 SB
41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio Rodríguez
MCG / AL
1.052
39 G/177 PA
Oscar Charleston
IND / NL
1.027
9 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie Mays
NYG / NL
.977
31 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR
.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike Trout
LAA / AL
.965
24 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB
1.000 Fldg
Carlos Beltrán
OTT / NL
.916
63 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro Oms
MCG / AL
.883
5 3B
6.3 ZR
Curtis Granderson
BBB / NL
.876
26 HR
3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.
Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.
#RF
A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
José Canseco
MCG / AL
1.109
36 HR
Larry Walker
OTT / NL
1.090
36 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR
3.89 RF
Reggie Jackson
SFS / AL
1.027
63 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony Gwynn
HOU / NL
1.026
6 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron Judge
PHI / NL
.994
.992 Fldg
Mickey Mantle
NYY / AL
.993
30 HR; 76 RBI
Joe Jackson
CAG /AL
.986
39 2B; 27 SB
Stan Musial
KCM / NL
.964
37 2B
5.5 ZR
Johnny Callison
NYG / NL
.945
.993 Fldg
Mookie Betts
MEM / AL
.865
24 2B
1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.
#DH
The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.
Name
Tm / Lg
OPS
Reg Stats
Other
Ty Cobb
DET / AL
1.350
37 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal Daniels
LAA / AL
1.023
21 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny Ramírez
MEM / AL
.986
56 G/224 PA
Ryan Braun
MCG/ AL
.982
31 HR
Willie Stargell
HOM / NL
.980
27 HR
Gavvy Cravath
BAL / AL
.926
22 2B; 69 RBI
Benny Kauff
NYG / NL
.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating
Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.
#P
Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.
All pitchers are sorted by ERA.
#SP
This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Toad Ramsey
HOU / NL
11-4, 2.77
152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP
71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc Gooden
LAA / AL
7-5, 3.17
Hardie Henderson
PHI/ NL
9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe Williams
BRK / NL
7-7, 3.41
3.4 WAR
Ed Walsh
CAG / AL
6-3, 3.41
1.06 WHIP
Eddie Plank
SFS / AL
11-3, 3.54
Roger Clemens
HOU / NL
9-4, 3.71
65% QS
Lefty Grove
SFS / AL
10-4, 3.71
132 K
4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny Cueto
IND / NL
8-4, 3.75
67% QS
Rube Foster
IND / NL
6-4, 3.80
Ron Guidry
NYY / AL
8-4, 3.86
143 K
2.58 SIERA
Orel Hershiser
BRK / NL
10-4, 3.87
Brett Anderson
LAA / AL
7-2, 3.91
1.06 WHIP
Andy Pettitte
NYY / AL
9-5, 4.05
Bump Hadley
SFS / AL
11-4, 4.21
3.50 FIP
Luis Padrón
IND / NL
11-2, 4.21
3.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank Castillo
KCM / NL
10-1, 4.22
3 CG; 2 SHO
José Méndez
MCG / AL
6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.
Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.
The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.
#Swingmen / Long Relivers
These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
A. Rube Foster
KCM/ NL
5-1, 2.30
0.98 WHIP
7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim Whitney
BBB / NL
4-2, 3.26
1 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP
11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom Brewer
SFS / AL
0-1, 2.33
1 Sv; 2 H
2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando Valenzuela
BRK / NL
5-0, 2.37
1 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP
1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal Cormier
NYY / AL
0-2, 6.03
11 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.
#Closers & Setups
20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.
Name
Tm / Lg
W-L; ERA
Reg Stats
Other
Brian Wilson
NYG/ NL
1-0, 1.08
11 Sv
17 IP
Craig Kimbrel
KCM / NL
2-1, 1.14
2 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP
15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley Young
BBB / NL
1-0, 1.23
3 Sv; 5 H
Ron Robinson
SFS / AL
1-0, 1.64
3 Sv; 3 H
Ken Howell
SFS / AL
4-1, 1.72
1 Sv; 4 H
Robb Nen
NYG / NL
3-2, 1.95
9 Sv; 6 H
Eddie Guardado
KCM / NL
2-1, 2.08
1 Sv; 5 H
2.92 SIERA
Tug McGraw
HOU / NL
3-3, 2.16
7 Sv
Ross Reynolds
LAA / AL
2-0, 2.19
1 Sv; 1 H
Goose Gossage
NYY / AL
2-3, 2.32
9 Sv; 8 H
.90 Sv%
Lee Smith
HOD / NL
4-1, 2.73
5 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric Gagne
BRK / NL
1-1, 2.92
19 Sv
17 SD
Justin Hampson
BAL / AL
0-0, 3.00
7 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry Adams
CLE / AL
1-2, 3.18
15 Sv; 2 H
.94 Sv%
Josh Lindblom
HOM / NL
4-2, 3.45
20 Sv
.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod Beck
SFS / AL
3-2, 3.47
21 Sv; 0.73 WHIP
15 SD
Rob Murphy
IND / NL
1-3, 3.75
1 Sv; 11 H
Michael Jackson
HOM / NL
1-4, 4.13
1 Sv; 10 H
BJ Ryan
OTT / NL
1-2, 4.15
1 Sv; 10 H
Brad Kilby
PHI / NL
1-2, 4.39
2 Sv; 10 H
2.73 SIERA
Rob Dibble
IND / NL
2-2, 5.25
16 Sv
Jeff Pfeffer
KCM / NL
1-3, 5.61
16 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added
A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.
That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.
Bill Phyle‘s time at with the big league club was minimal, as Steve Bedrosian‘s return from the DL sent Phyle back to AAA. Harley Young began a rehab assignment, signaling more good news for the Black Barons’ bullpen.
The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for Birmingham. Instead, it’s in shambles and, even though it’s early, some changes are in store, most notably Lefty Gomez replacing Vic Willis in the rotation. Jim Whitney is also pushing for a spot, with some pressure on Sam Streeter and John Malarkey to step it up in their next starts.
Jess Barbour‘s miserable start to the year will result in some reduced playing time, but his defensive flexibility keeps him on the roster.
Alejandro Peña was ridiculously good, allowing only 1 hit in over 8 innings, but he wasn’t around when Herman Long drove in the winning run with a 2 out single in the bottom of the 9th, giving Birmingham a 1-0 walkoff win over Brooklyn.
Curtis Granderson went deep twice as the Black Barons lost to Brooklyn, 5-4. Greg Maddux had an encouraging start for Birmingham, but Bedrosian imploded, giving up 2 homeruns in the 8th.
#Houston Colt 45’s
Toad Ramsey was magnificent, striking out 12 and allowing only a single hit in a 1-0 win over Kansas City. Carlos Correa extended his 28 game hitting streak with 2 doubles and Craig Biggio drove in HR Johnson for the game’s sole tally.
Correa’s hitting streak ended at 29 games, but 2 homeruns from Casey Stengel, along with solo shots from Tony Gwynn and Jeff Bagwell carried Houston to an 8-6 win over Birmingham. Stengel drove in 4 and Gwynn had 3 hits.
Correa bounced right back, sending a ball into the Crawford Seats for a walkoff 3 run homer in a 5-2 win over Birmingham.
#Indianapolis ABC’s
2 homers from Johnny Bench and 3 hits from Oscar Charleston weren’t enough as the ABC’s fell to Homestead, 5-4.
Gorham Leverett‘s spell with the ABC’s was awfully short, as an oblique injury forced him to the DL. Lynn Brenton was recalled from AAA to take Leverett’s spot.
Exactly how the roster shapes up, from C to MI to the reserve spots, all have to be answered.
Injuries
George Brett will miss the first few weeks of the season with a knee injury.
First Cuts
Of the starters, only Leon Day has struggled, but the teenager holds onto his position for now on the strength of his work last season. But some clarity has emerged among the relievers, where Óscar Tuero, Scott Bankhead, and Roberto Osuna were all sent down.
That leaves 22 pitchers in camp, so there will be more movement here over the next week.
Cs Bob Boone and Cy Perkins were sent down, along with Felipe Alou and, in Paul Goldschmidt, Aramis Ramírez, and Carney Lansford, three players who continue to show incredible promise at the plate until an actual game starts, when they can no longer make any contact.
3B remains a bit up in the air, as nobody has really hit–teen phenom Edgar Martínez has shown excellent plate discipline, but has yet to get a hit and Russ Adams has probably been the best of the group, with an OPS of .500.But, in all likelihood, the Colt 45’s are really just looking for someone to backup George Brett occasionally.
Bama Rowell‘s strong start at 2B keeps that position a bit crowded, while Shawon Dunstan heads to the minors, clearing a little room at SS.
In the OF, César Cedeño and Derek Bell have impressed, while Ken Henderson, Kirby Puckett, Shin-Soo Choo, and Hunter Pence have all been returned to minor league camp.
Which leaves the frustrating case of Jim O’Rourke, who refuses to show any potential at the plate, but has so much defensive flexibility that he retains a spot in camp. For the time being.
Second Cuts
Chad Qualls has imploded, giving up 12 hits in just over 2 innings of work, and earning a ticket to the minors along with Bill Harper, Harry Staley, and Wade Davis.
Jim O’Rourke and Rick Cerone were also sent down.
Of the 2B/SS/3B in camp, only Bama Rowell and Craig Biggio are hitting over .200, with only Edgar Martínez‘ eye for the strike zone joining them in having an OPS over .500. Someone has to catch fire here, but until then, they all remain.
The OFers also remain, as the worst performers–Jim Wynn and Casey Stengel–did enough last season to be virtually guaranteed roster spots.
Third Cuts
The bullpen is coming into focus, ending Chris Saenz‘ time in camp. Dock Ellis sticks around, but only as a hedge against Vida Blue‘s injury diagnosis, which should be forthcoming shortly.
Young draftee Edgar Martínez was sent to the minors, leaving only 2 players capable of playing 3B in camp in Russ Adams and the presumed starter until George Brett returns from injury, Grant Johnson.
The battle between Jason Castro and Will Smith to backup Jorge Posada at C is fierce, and Kevin Young, Bama Rowell, and César Cedeño are all making strong arguments for roster spots.
Final Cuts
SS Travis Jackson heads to AAA, along with MI partner, 2B Bama Rowell.
Leon Day will start the year at AAA as the teenager seeks a little more consistency before assuming a fulltime WBL spot.
Harry Stovey impressed in a brief showing last season, but is both blocked positionally and was unable to get anything going this Spring, leading to his starting the year at AAA.
Houston still has a ton of open questions, from the final 2-3 pitchers to be sent down to the backup C slot. But they got to 30 by demoting two OFers, Derek Bell and Gorman Thomas.
RP Andrew Chafin was placed on the DL.
The Colt 45’s rotation was always set in Roy Oswalt, Stephen Strasburg, Toad Ramsey, Roger Clemens, and Bret Saberhagen, so even Oswalt and Strasburg’s rough Springs haven’t changed that. The question, then, is which of the arms that remain would benefit more from regular starts at AAA and which could contribute from the WBL bullpen. Ice Box Chamberlain–who, it has to be remembered, is only 19–was moved out of camp.
Will Smith turned a number of heads all Spring, but the Colt 45’s believe regular playing time at AAA would serve him better than backing up Jorge Posada; a task that will fall to Jason Castro to open the season. This logic is clearly not absolute, though, as 18 year old César Cedeño will start the season on the Colt 45’s bench (assumedly only until George Brett recovers), making Kevin Young the final cut from camp.
77 - 77, .500 pct. 3rd in Cum Posey Division, 14 games behind.
Overall
I mean, given how poorly Houston performed offensively, .500 is an achievement; but given how well they pitched, perhaps it was a missed opportunity.
This is one of the youngest teams in the league, and has the potential to be a force in the WBL in a few years if players develop as expected.
What Went Right
Jim Wynn had a fine season–which is hard to do when you hit .259. But he has some power, gets on base, plays good defense–probably the most valuable offensive performer on the team. Three players (Casey Stengel, Harry Stovey, and Andrés Galarraga) forced themselves into the lineup on a regular basis, mostly due to flashes of power which is a much-needed commodity for Houston.
Pete Hill held his own as an 18 year old.
The starters were quite good, led by Roy Oswalt and Stephen Strasburg and, before missing half the year with injury, Bret Saberhagen. But Toad Ramsey was dependable and Roger Clemens improved immediately on his arrival, even if his overall numbers aren’t great given how much he struggled with Memphis.
In the bullpen, Tug McGraw was fantastic in a brief debut, and both Kyle Kendrick and Bones Ely did well enough to lock down a spot for next season.
ALL STARS
P Mark Melancon
What Went Wrong
Nobody hit for power. Wynn led the team with 20 homeruns and only two players (Stengel and Jeff Bagwell) were in double digits. None of the full time players had a SLG over .450, let alone .500.
Carlos Correa and HR Johnson both struggled, leaving the SS position up in the air, as did Jim O’Rourke, which was a shame, as O’Rourke’s defensive flexibility is really useful in roster construction. But not worth a .660 OPS.
The bullpen was just weird all year. Brad Lidge was a hot mess, Jim Kern (acquired in trade) awful, Billy Wagner good for a time and then very much not good.
Transactions
March
None
June
OF Hack Wilson, P Jim Kaat, IF DJ LeMahieu, P Stubby Overmire & 5th Round Pick to Memphis for P Roger Clemens
A risk: Clemens’ talent is undeniable, but Houston could regret this deal in 4 years, or could see it as a cornerstone of the franchise.
OF Lance Berkman to Cleveland for OF Harry Stovey, 1B Charlie Grimm, P Chad Qualls & 3rd Round Pick {Garry Templeton}
Berkman was struggling mightily in Houston, but a team with no power trading a hitter with power is hard. Still, Stovey looks good and Qualls did quite well in a brief trial.
July
RP Trevor Hoffman, RP Mark Melancon & 4th Round Pick to Portland for OF Kirby Puckett, P Jim Kern, P Rick Wise, 3rd Round Pick {Harry Staley} & 5th Round Pick
Hmmm. A lot depends both on Puckett developing and the Colt 45’s having a spot for him.
Looking Forward
SP
Pitchers are hard to predict and harder to keep healthy, but this is as good a group of young arms as any: a future rotation of Roy Oswalt, Steven Strasburg, Roger Clemens, Bret Saberhagen, and Leon Day sounds pretty good, and that doesn’t account for the development of Dock Ellis, Scott Erickson, or Vida Blue.
RP
A lot is riding on Tug McGraw to claim the closer spot. If he can do that, with support from Chad Qalls, Billy Wagner, and the emerging Dan Quisenberry, this group could be quite good.
C
An area of need. Jorge Posada was fine, but is aging out.
1B
This is Jeff Bagwell‘s spot to lose, with Andrés Galarraga helping out, which means Houston may have to figure something else out for Paul Goldschmidt and Charlie Grimm.
2B
The middle infield is all a bit confusing. Some think Craig Biggio ends up here, and HR Johnson really needs to show some pop to fill in. But if both of those things happen, there may be an issue.
3B
The organization is convinced that George Brett will improve here.
SS
Sorting out Carlos Correa and Johnson is the key here. Either Houston will have a surplus of quality in the middle infield, or way too much mediocrity.
LF
Tony Gwynn and Pete Hill.
CF
This is Jimmy Wynn for now, with Kirby Puckett sitting in the wings.
RF
Pete Hill and Tony Gwynn.
The Rookie Draft
Rounds 1-4
They need offense, but the challenge is to fit it around pieces that are pretty much set. Zack Greinke as a franchise pick is tempting, but a coals to Newcastle comment would be in order. Houston has been aggressive on the trade market, so a “best available talent” approach seems warranted.
They found a middle ground of sorts, selecting an offensive force that is still a few years away, taking 3B Edgar Martinez with the 11th pick. The thinking wasn’t much different in the 2nd round, as teenage franchise OFer César Cedeño should be able to be in the mix within a year or two.
With the first of three picks in rapid succession in the second half of the 3rd round, Houston selected C Will Smith, who immediately slots in as Posada’s long term replacement behind the plate. They followed Smith with Harry Staley, a bit of a gamble on the mound, and Garry Templeton, a franchise pick that may provide some insurance at SS.
Rounds 5-8
At this point, the Colt 45’s need SP and depth throughout the IF. They start with a bit of a long term project in SP Larry Jansen and follow that with the mercurial Robbie Ray and then Jon Gray and Collin McHugh: that’s four consecutive arms, so look for some position players in the final rounds.
Rounds 9-12
P Dave Dravecky; P Lance McCullers; 1B Ryan McMahon; and P Scott Bankhead.
The Colt 45’s will have some extra picks next year, as 3rd round selection Garry Templeton and 6th round pick Robbie Ray both walked away from the negotiating table.
