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TWIWBL 92.2: Off Season Review – Philadelphia Stars

87 - 75, .537 pct.
2nd in Effa Manley Division, 12 GB
Lost in NL WC to HOU, 4-1

Overall

What a surprising year in Philadelphia!

This is what decent pitching, solid defense, and some high end lineup slots can do for a club. Drafting the unique talents of Charles Rogan helped, too.

It’s built around Rogan, Scott Rolen, and the radical power of Aaron Judge on offense and Rogan, Hardie Henderson, and Steve Carlton on the mound.

It’s a blueprint, and there is reason for optimism that the Stars could repeat the formula next year.

The optimism comes from the fact that some Stars still have room to grow, especially when you look at how JM Ward and Ray Collins both were far, far better than their results on the mound and the looming presence of Harmon Killebrew at AAA.

The skepticism comes from Ward and Collins being unproven, from the struggles on the IF, and from the age of the squad, especially Rico Carty (who had a solid year) and Ted Kluszewski (who did not).

What Went Right

We’ve got to start with Charles “Bullet Joe” Rogan, a legitimate all-star level talent both on the mound and all over the field (Rogan played a lot of CF, but that had more to do with Willie Davis‘ struggles than anything else). Rogan slashed 308/362/620 in 520 PAs and went 12-9 with a 4.51 ERA on the mound over 30 starts. Just an amazing talent.

Aaron Judge exploded this year, with 63 homeruns and 133 RBIs, making the RF job his from here on out.

Scott Rolen continues to be one of the better 3B in the league, posting a .917 OPS and finishing second on the team with 42 homeruns.

At 38, Rico Carty continues to contribute offensively. He’s slowed down, and the power continues to dwindle, but a mid .800s OPS is serviceable in a reserve player.

Bill Dickey finally seemed to claim the C spot, posting an .827 OPS in 50ish games behind the plate. Hopes are high for his first full season.

At 21, there is time for Sherry Magee to continue to develop, for now, an .800 OPS plus 47 steals is a solid base to build on.

Chase Utley was … good enough … at 2B, flashing elite leather and providing OK offense.

ALL STARS

Hardie Henderson
Aaron Judge
Charles Rogan
MAJOR AWARDS

Willie Davis, NL CF Gold Glove
Aaron Judge, All NL Team; NL RF Silver Slugger
Charles Rogan, NL Rookie of the Year
Chase Utley, NL 2B Gold Glove
RECOGNITIONS

Fred Cambria, All NL 3rd Team; NL 25 & Under Team; NL 23 & Under Team
Bill Dickey, NL All Rookie Team
Hardie Henderson, All NL 3rd Team
César Hernández, NL All Rookie Team
Bob Howry, All NL 3rd Team; NL Over 30 Team
Ted Kennedy, NL 23 & Under Team
Brad Kilby, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
Sherry Magee, NL 21 & Under Team
Charles Rogan, All NL 3rd Team; NL All Rookie 2nd Team (CF & P)
Scott Rolen, All NL 3rd Team
Jimmy Rollins, NL All Rookie 2nd Team
JM Ward, 21 & Under Team
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS

Charles Rogan, MVP
Hardie Henderson, Pitcher of the Year
Scott Rolen, Heart & Soul
Charles Rogan, Fan Favorite

Jack Kralick, Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Jung Ho Kang, Minor League Player of the Year

What Went Wrong

Catching was a mess until Dickey was recalled–both Sherm Lollar and Mike Scioscia are fine as reserves, but seem overmatched as starters.

The middle infield was a mess all year. César Hernández looked like a solution, but faltered; and Jimmy Rollins was pretty miserable at SS. Eventually, Chase Utley took over, but SS remained a challenge all season.

Ted Kluszewski‘s bat seems to have slowed way down, managing only a 245/289/436 slash line.

Willie Davis earned the Gold Glove in CF, but struggled mightily at the plate, managing only a 233/282/391 slash line. Gold Glove defense can’t make up for that level of offensive performance.

There was a lot of mediocrity, but little that went downright wrong, on the mound. John Burkett and Bill Gatewood struggled in limited innings, but that’s about it. Mark Melancon‘s overall numbers are bad, but he performed quite well with the Stars.

Transactions

March

None.

July

P Larry Jackson to HOD for IF Luis Aparicio, IF Jung Ho Kang & 7th Round Pick.

It’s decent value, but at the same time, another SP would have been useful. Still, Aparicio may have a shot at the SS job and Kang hit very well (he may end up being the epitome of a AAAA player, but he may not).

August

P LaTroy Hawkins, P Dave Stieb, IF Pat Meares, P Jaret Wright, OF Bobby Abreu & 2nd Round Pick to POR for IF Rafael Palmiero, P Mark Melancon, IF Jim Fregosi, & OF Harry Hooper.

This was really 2 deals–the Abreu and Palmiero component is, or should be, pretty much a wash. The rest is interesting: Melancon was bad in Portland and excellent in Philadelphia, Hooper was horrible in Portland and worse in Philadelphia, and Fregosi might–might–solve the Stars’ SS challenge for a few years. They gave up a lot of talent but it’s all potential: if Stieb, Hawkins, and Wright all become rotation starters, it’s too much; if not, it’s a good trade.

OF George Hendrick to BRK for 3rd Round Pick.

Sure. Why not.

Positional Overview

C

Bill Dickey seems to finally be delivering on the promise that led to last year’s trade with the Black Yankees. With him set as the starter, Mike Scioscia is the most likely candidate for the backup role.

There’s not a lot of talent behind him, but perhaps Butch Wynegar or Jerry Grote may have WBL talent.

1B

This is a little uncertain, but the Stars would very much like Harmon Killebrew or Rafael Palmeiro to lay their claim in Spring Training.

Rogan can play here, of course, and both Rico Carty and Ted Kluszewski can be of use here as well.

2B

It feels like Chase Utley did enough to retain his starting spot here, especially considering the Gold Glove. César Hernández will start the season as the utility infielder, but may step in if Utley falters.

There are a couple other interesting options: Jung Ho Kang plays 2B badly, but it is a way to get his bat in the lineup, and both Luis Aparicio and Roger Peckinpaugh can fill in here as well.

SS

This is Jim Fregosi‘s job given his arrival via trade.

There were high hopes for Jimmy Rollins, but it feels like both he and Peckinpaugh have been supplanted by Aparicio in the pecking order. Much is open to be determined this Spring.

3B

No questions here: Scott Rolen all day.

Killebrew and Kang will hopefully do enough to serve as regular relief. Rogan can play here as well, as can JM Ward, although his attempts at contributing offensively have fallen short so far.

LF/RF

RF is set with Aaron Judge, and LF looks more and more like Sherry Magee, at least for now.

There’s some talent in the minors: Buck Freeman, Ed Kirkpatrick, and even the hope that Harry Hooper someday regains his form.

CF

This is a pretty puzzling situation. Willie Davis hit well last year, but collapsed offensively this year. Still, he did win the Gold Glove out there.

This might be Rogan’s most natural position, and of course he had no problem hitting.

And then there’s the upcoming talent, led by Richie Ashburn, but also including Garry Maddox, Elston Howard, and Odúbel Herrera.

DH

The Stars really hope that Killebrew or Kang show up in the Spring. If that doesn’t happen, look for Rico Carty to get the bulk of the appearances.

SP

Hardie Henderson, Charles Rogan, Steve Carlton, and JM Ward are a good quartet for the front of the rotation.

The final spot is open, as are the swing starter positions, with the competition being between Ray Collins, Ted Kennedy (transitioning from the bullpen), Robin Roberts, John Clarkson, Don Newcombe, Bill Gatewood, and perhaps young prospect Pete Alexander.

Mélido Pérez looks like a good future prospect, as does Bill Stearns.

RP

Bob Howry will start as the closer, but at 34 there are some questions about his future. Behind him, though, there are a lot of odd questions: can Mark Melancon finally settled into a franchise (he performed quite well for the Stars at the end of the season)? Can Brad Kilby and Fred Cambria improve on relatively impressive initial seasons? And does Pedro Feliciano belong in the WBL at all?

That’s the group likely to start the year, but we’ll see how that goes.

Draft Outlook

DRAFT PICKS

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round: 2
4th Round: 1
5th Round: 1

The Stars could make a move for a 2B, or even a CF. But really their future is wrapped up in the continued development of their current talent.

TWIWBL 87.16: The Gold Gloves

We previewed the Gold Gloves in August, but now it’s time to do the real thing, one per position per league. We’ll go through them first, then list the award recipients at the end.

I do believe in defense mattering over time, as such, we’re using an 800 IP minimum for the GG awards. For each position, we’re listing the top 3 in each league, AL followed by NL.

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

Outfielders also have Assists (A), more romantically referred to as Outfield Kills are runners eliminated on the bases and Arm Runs (AR), which measures the net runs gained on an outfielder’s throws, including runner advancements.

Finally, catchers, who are really their own thing, also have RTO% (the percentage of runners thrown out trying to steal, abbreviated as RT), PB (passed balls), Framing Runs (the number of runs gained by the catcher’s positioning), and cERx, which reflects the ERA while the catcher was behind the plate compared to the overall staff ERA. A cERx below 1 means the catcher was better than the rest of the staff, above 1, worse.

#C

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffRTPBcERxFR
NLINDJohnny Bench1144.9959.31.31.1936111.037
HODElrod Hendricks923.9948.33.81.144091.015
NYGBuster Posey1095.9968.90.41.003580.9610
ALPORJoe Mauer1103.9969.53.51.043961.015
NYYThurman Munson1122.9959.82.31.003550.964
MCGIván Rodríguez1104.9989.85.71.0546170.982

So, what is a catcher’s primary duty? Helping their staff, controlling the running game, and then, a somewhat distant third, making their own defensive plays.

The choice in the AL is pretty obvious, in the NL, I think it comes down to how much do you weigh Posey’s ability to frame pitches, and his ~150 more innings played than Hendricks.

#1B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMBoog Powell1105.9969.13.41.02
HODAnthony Rizzo828.9958.70.81.02
INDJoey Votto10721.0008.45.11.04
ALDETHank Greenberg1159.9968.32.51.02
PORKent Hrbek1007.9958.61.31.03
MEMBill White886.9939.10.51.01

Again, one choice is pretty clear–the NL this time.

In the AL, it’s much closer, but Greenberg makes some plays that Hrbek just doesn’t.

#2B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLKCMRobinson Canó1134.9904.611.01.06
BBBCupid Childs1022.9834.57.31.09
PHIChase Utley1173.9944.913.71.07
ALDETCharlie Gehringer971.9894.9-10.70.94
BALMiller Huggins923.9874.310.81.10
MCGCookie Rojas877.9934.4-3.30.97

These are two relatively easy choices. And, there is a question of what’s going on in the AL, where almost everyone has a negative ZR.

#SS

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLNYGBrandon Crawford1046.9664.211.41.07
INDBarry Larkin911.9754.79.01.07
KCMOzzie Smith1188.9924.712.21.06
ALSFSDick Lundy934.9874.510.81.06
CAGFreddy Parent952.9785.013.61.06
CLEArky Vaughan1143.9824.213.41.09

In the NL, it’s another clear choice: while Smith and Crawford both make the sensational plays, Smith makes all the plays.

The AL is much, much closer and there’s really not much to choose from between Parent and Vaughan. As such, we’ll go with the player who stayed on the field more.

#3B

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEff
NLOTTAdrián Beltré1055.9742.6-0.81.00
BRKRon Cey1138.9752.56.01.03
PHIScott Rolen1155.9702.35.01.06
ALPORBuddy Bell1169.9682.58.01.05
CLEEvan Longoria1148.9632.24.81.04
NYYMike Schmidt1140.9582.45.31.03

The hot corner is a challenge: everyone makes 2, 2 1/2 plays a game, so RF is less useful, although Beltré’s 2.6 does stand out, as does Longoria’s more limited mobility. But it means fPct–as a proxy for errors–and dEff rise in importance. In the AL, while it’s not by a mile, I think Bell is the clear choice while in the AL, it ends up being between Cey and Rolen, with the final edge going to The Penguin.

#LF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLINDBob Bescher839.9891.9-4.80.962-2.8
PHISherry Magee839.9941.74.81.041-2.3
BRKRoy White1152.9921.910.31.076-1.0
ALCLEJohnny Bates1018.9782.08.81.064-1.3
SFSRickey Henderson1202.9821.612.21.183-3.6
BALFrank Robinson996.9901.80.21.005-2.2

The AR numbers reflect just how hard it is to prevent runners from advancing on flyballs, and makes Jim Wynn‘s 3.7 mark there all the more remarkable. Unfortunately, the rest of Wynn’s numbers leave him out of the finalists entirely.

The NL is an easy choice, and one that gives us a repeat winner in Roy White. Over in the Al, it’s harder, but Bates makes more plays and has a far better arm than Henderson, despite how much ground the Sea Lions’ speedster covers.

#CF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLOTTCarlos Beltrán1045.9822.99.51.0610-1.0
PHIWillie Davis1035.9882.916.31.104-2.8
NYGWillie Mays1214.9892.814.51.054-4.7
ALBALPaul Blair935.9862.711.81.093-2.6
CLETris Speaker1047.9822.810.01.069-2.4
SFSTurkey Stearnes1027.9792.87.41.055-4.7

Assists can be misleading: Detroit’s Chili Davis gunned down 14 runners and Kansas City’s Willie McGee 11, but they, overall, just weren’t effective enough out there to warrant their inclusion. Remember, the weaker the arm, the more often it gets run on, the more chances for assists you may get.

Look, Willie Mays is a great defensive CF. But Willie Davis, simply, had a better year out there. In the AL, you can only unseat Paul Blair if you give massive weight to Speaker’s additional 3 assists. But given how close they are in AR, it’s hard to rationalize that. So Blair it is once again, our 2nd repeat winner.

#RF

LgTmNameIPfPctRFZRdEffAAR
NLBBBHank Aaron945.9791.74.41.0660.6
HOMRoberto Clemente1134.9792.27.11.0611-2.6
KCMStan Musial972.9812.08.41.072-0.4
ALMEMMookie Betts8801.0001.97.61.072-3.8
DETAl Kaline971.9912.13.81.036-1.8
LAAIchiro Suzuki11951.0002.05.71.047-3.0

The NL is insanely close. Musial makes more spectacular plays than Clemente, Clemente makes marginally more plays overall and has that cannon for an arm, although Musial limits baserunners more effectively. It’s a coin flip, but today we’ll go with Clemente’s additional 150 innings as the difference maker.

In the AL, it’s clearly one of the players who didn’t make a single miscue, and although Betts has the edge in a few metrics, Suzuki has over 300 more innings–1200 innings without an error, but with great range, is incredible.

#P

We’re using 140 innings as the cutoff for the pitchers. Additionally, we have access to number of Framing Runs the pitcher benefitted from, as well as the SB numbers against them. Errors tend to be so low from pitchers, that fPct is no longer a really useful metric.

LgTmNameIPRFZRdEffRTFR
NLHODBob Rush1861.23.71.00600
HODJack Taylor1920.95.21.00570
PHIJM Ward1961.03.41.16510.4
ALPORBert Blyleven2040.95.61.00590.3
BALBob Feller1531.03.30.9168-0.3
PORWalter Johnson2140.85.01.20590

Sample size, of course, wrecks havoc with pitcher’s defensive stats. Still, we have what we have.

Not only does Bob Rush make a lot of plays, he keeps runners from stealing, and while Jack Taylor makes more spectacular plays, Rush’s ZR is more than good enough to take the award home. In the AL, Johnson and Blyleven are neck-and-neck, but we’ll go with Blyleven, who has a slight edge in most categories.

#The Gold Gloves

PosAmerican LeagueNational League
CIván Rodríguez (MCG)Elrod Hendricks (HOD)
1BHank Greenberg (DET)Joey Votto (IND)
2BMiller Huggins (BAL)Chase Utley (PHI)
SSArky Vaughan (CLE)Ozzie Smith (KCM)
3BBuddy Bell (POR)Ron Cey (BRK)
LFJohnny Bates (CLE)Roy White (BRK)
CFPaul Blair (BAL)Willie Davis (PHI)
RFIchiro Suzuki (LAA)Roberto Clemente (HOM)
PBert Blyleven (POR)Bob Rush (HOD)

There are a surprising number of teams with 2 Gold Glove winners–Baltimore, Portland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, and the House of David.

But the overall number of finalists may be more interesting, as it should give some indications as to the higher tier defensive units in the league. Here’s how that stacks up:

6. Cleveland
5. Philadelphia
4. House of David, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Portland
3. Baltimore, Detroit, New York Gothams, San Francisco
2. Birmingham, Brooklyn, Memphis, Miami, New York Black Yankees, Ottawa
1. Chicago, Homestead, Los Angeles

TWIWBL 87.5: The Second Basemen

Another NL dominated list with AL 2B only appearing in the B Tier and, honestly, each of those perhaps belonging one group lower.

#S Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLOTTRoberto Alomar24305/383/57935 HR
109 RBI
121 R
58 SB
NLINDJoe Morgan22306/425/61235 SB

Nobody would have predicted Roberto Alomar as the best 2B in the game before the season began, but here we are. Alomar was truly superlative, putting him in the running for the All Rounder Award, even. Alomar’s WAR of 4.9 easily outpaced the rest of the field at 2B, and perhaps the only knock on him is that he led the league with 14 errors, however he also played more innings at 2B than anybody else.

Even with all that, Joe Morgan may have edged Alomar for the top spot if he had remained healthy: he got on base more often and showed more power, and is expected to be back at full strength for Spring Training

#A Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLBRKJackie Robinson29288/369/54952 SB
NLHODRyne Sandberg33292/351/59242 HR.993 fPct
4.97 RF

Jackie Robinson spent some time elsewhere early in the season, but settled down at 2B for the champions, and won the Whirled Series with a memorable walkoff blast. While Ryne Sandberg faded a little as the season moved along (he lead the WBL in homers at one early point), this is still more than enough to cement his spot as a star in the league, especially when his defense is considered.

#B Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALCAGEddie Collins28286/385/413104 R
73 SB
NLNYGLarry Doyle35261/350/58726 HR
LAA/
BBB
Bobby Grich24226/349/448.976 fPct
ALPOR/
NYY
Rogers Hornsby34270/374/480-11.9 ZR
.904 dEff
ALBALMiller Huggins28276/421/35435 SB10.8 ZR
1.100 dEff
NLPHIChase Utley30254/341/44126 SB.994 fPct
4.92 RF
13.7 ZR

Eddie Collins was a borderline MVP candidate last year, and the first recipient of the All Rounder Award, and Bobby Grich wasn’t all that far behind him. This year, a 50 point drop in slash line across the board moves them into this space, where their starting jobs are safe, but they’re really in danger of no longer being considered elite. An argument could be made that Rogers Hornsby still belongs in the A Tier, but his age and defensive weakness moves him here.

Larry Doyle barely made the usage requirement for the list, which moves him down a tier and, at 35, it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. Still, in hindsight, he clearly should have started at 2B for the Gothams all season.

Miller Huggins may not belong here, but we’re a sucker for players with 150 point spreads between their BA and OBP, and he’s clearly locked down the starting role in Baltimore. Add his defensive metrics, and we’re fine with him in this group.

Chase Utley‘s incredible defense moves him into this tier–his offensive performance alone would leave him in the C Tier.

#C Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
ALMCGMartín Dihigo19246/291/42939 SB1.000 fPct
ALDETCharlie Gehringer25257/335/4524.89 RF
-10.7 ZR
HOD/
SFS
Frank Grant22255/339/38443 SB
ALMEMDJ LeMahieu29297/373/4331.117 dEff
ALPORPaul Molitor24266/323/42342 SB.977 fPct

Paul Molitor‘s future is not at 2B, but to succeed anywhere else, he’ll need to up the offensive production–indeed, he is perhaps being flattered through his inclusion here.

DJ LeMahieu and Frank Grant barely made the list’s usage requirement, leaving Charlie Gehringer as the only obvious C Tier second baseman.

And then there is the enigma that is Martín Dihigo. He played mostly at 2B, but logged a ton of innings elsewhere, at a gold glove level everywhere. Add in his age, his massive jump in offensive performance, and his speed, and you could argue he belongs a tier above.

#D Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLHOUCraig Biggio26234/333/39820 SB (but, 20 CS)
NLBRKRay Dandridge22249/284/4213.94 RF
1.131 dEff
NLINDTommy Helms25268/300/399
ALCLEChuck Knoblauch28230/320/38138 SB-12.5 ZR
.926 dEff

Craig Biggio has more upside–and clearly had the better year–but either he or Chuck Knoblauch could, surprisingly, see the bench next year. Both were significantly better last year, with Knoblauch being an All Star, so there is some reason for optimism as well.

Ray Dandridge‘s future in Brooklyn is probably at SS, but he played most this season at 2B, so he’s listed here. Obviously, the offense needs to improve for his career to stabilize.

Tommy Helms is a utility infielder at best, forced onto this list by Morgan’s injury.

#F Tier

LgTmNameAgeSlashOtherDef
NLKCMRobinson Canó25230/258/39711.0 ZR
NLBBBCupid Childs24224/344/32737 SB
NLKCMFrankie Frisch28255/281/405
ALNYYTom Herr29228/288/32621 SB4.02 RF
NLHOMNapoleon Lajoie24231/255/40955 2B.993 fPct
ALMCGCookie Rojas26267/307/379.993 fPct

An interesting group, honestly. Cupid Childs has gone from being a rising star to losing his starting job with the arrival of Bobby Grich; Napoleon Lajoie‘s 55 doubles speak to his potential, and Cookie Rojas is quite versatile, although, of this group, perhaps the most expendable for his team.

Note Childs’ OBP: his speed and ability to get on base should preserve his having utility in the WBL somewhere.

And then we have the misery that is Kansas City, with both Robinson Canó and Frankie Frisch buried here (although, to be fair, Frisch is a utility infielder and has value as such). And, Tommy Herr, who was supposed to be the long-term solution at 2B for New York, but whose performance prompted the acquisition of Hornsby by the Black Yankees.

#Rookies

Charlie Gehringer (C Tier) and Frank Grant (C Tier).

#Fielding Notes

We have our standard defensive stats here, with the leaders in bold and the worst performers in italics. Range Factor (RF) measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating (ZR) attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency (dEff) measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact. Finally, Fielding Percentage (fPct) reflects the percentage of times a chance was handled without a mistake–if someone made no errors, their fPct would be 1.000.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

TWIWBL 84.4: NL Wild Card Round, Philadelphia Stars v Houston Colt 45’s

#Game 1, Wed Oct 3rd

The Stars opted to start Hardie Henderson over Steve Carlton for game 1; for the Colt 45’s there was no question they would turn to Toad Ramsey and his mighty knuckleball.

Sherry Magee continues to be effective as the Stars’ leadoff hitter: here he coaxed a walk from Ramsey, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on Jim Fregosi‘s grounder for an early 1-0 lead. It may have been wasted effort, as Aaron Judge hit one into the Crawford Boxes, giving Philadelphia a 2-0 advantage.

It was short-lived: Jim Wynn doubled and scored on a triple from Tony Gwynn. Henderson got 2 outs, but left a sinker up to Paul Goldschmidt, who sent it deep into the seats for a 3-2 edge to Houston after 1 inning.

Ramsey seemed to settle down, but Houston continued its onslaught against Henderson, with George Brett going deep in the 2nd and Goldschmidt, after an error by Scott Rolen put Jeff Bagwell on base, hit his 2nd of the day, making it 6-2.

A single from Pete Hill leading off the 4th chased Henderson, but Robin Roberts escaped the inning without additional damage.

The Stars put runners on 2nd and 3rd (a walk to Chase Utley and a Magee double) with 1 out in the 5th. Ramsey walked in a run, but Philadelphia would be sad not to take greater advantage of the situation. Roberts continued to be effective, and we ended 5 with Houston ahead, 6-3.

Houston got some insurance in the bottom of the 8th as Hill laced a 2 run double, scoring 2 and increasing the score to 8-3.

Philadelphia had their chances, leaving 10 runners on base in the contest, but in the end–in what can only be seen as a good sign for the Colt 45’s–Andrew Chafin, Roberto Osuna, Tug McGraw, and Sparky Lyle combined for 4 scoreless innings in relief of Ramsey.

Goldschmidt was the clear star for Houston, driving in 4, but Carlos Correa and Hill chipped in 2 hits apiece. Magee and Rogan had 2 hits for the Stars.

Houston up, 1-0.

PHI 3 (Henderson 0-1) @ HOU 8 (Ramsey 1-0; Chafin 1 H; Osuna 1 H; McGraw 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (1); Goldschmidt 2 (2), Brett (1).
Box Score

#Game 2, Thu 4 Oct

Philadelphia would turn to Steve Carlton, trying to even out the series against Houston’s Roger Clemens.

Once again Aaron Judge went deep in the opening frame, this time with a solo shot. The Stars scored a second on an RBI single from Rico Carty, meaning, for the 2nd consecutive game, Philadelphia leads 2-0 before Houston comes to bat.

The script diverged there, however briefly: the Colt 45’s cut the deficit in half on a solo shot from Jeff Bagwell in the 2nd. In the 3rd, a leadoff walk to Craig Biggio was followed by a double in the right field corner by Jim Wynn. Tony Gwynn launched a ball to left, forcing a nice diving catch from Sherry Magee, but it was more than enough for Biggio to trot home. But the Colt 45’s weren’t done: Carlos Correa hit an RBI single and then Bagwell launched his 2nd of the game, giving Houston a 5-2 lead.

Carlton lasted 5, Clemens 6, with neither pitching particularly well, turning the game over to the shakiest parts of each bullpen.

Houston seemed to blink first, as John Franco gave up singles to Ted Kluszewski and Bill Dickey to start the 7th. But a pop to short center and a good throw by Jorge Posada to nail Dickey’s attempt to steal second seemed to offer an avenue out. But Franco allowed singles to Magee and Chase Utley, narrowing the lead to 5-4 and fetching Jim Kern from Houston’s bullpen. Kern induced a flyout from Charles Rogan, maintaining the single run advantage for the Colt 45’s.

And this is what Houston had envisioned: Tug McGraw shut it down before yielding to Sparky Lyle to close it out, giving the Colt 45’s a 2-0 edge in the series.

Bagwell’s 2 homeruns were key, of course, but so were Posada’s erasing 2 runners attempting to steal.

It was another game of missed opportunities for Philadelphia, who outhit Houston 11-5 in the contest. 3 of those came from Judge, who is 4-for-8 across the 2 games. The Stars’ bullpen did well, with Brad Kilby, Fred Cambria, and Ted Kennedy combining for 3 frames without giving up a hit.

PHI 4 (Carlton 0-1) @ HOU 5 (Clemens 1-0; Lyle 1 Sv; McGraw 2 H; Kern 1 H; Franco 1 H)
HRs: PHI – Judge (2); Bagwell 2 (2).
Box Score

#Game 3, Sat Oct 6

We head to Philadelphia with something of a must-win game for the Stars, who will turn to the magnificent Charles Rogan, while Houston will counter with Ice Box Chamberlain.

Rogan balked in a run in the top of the first, but escaped a flurry of baserunners without further damage.

Aaron Judge did not hit a homerun in the opening frame, but he did drive in a run with a single, and later scored on a 3-run opposite drive by Jim Fregosi, putting the Stars up 4-1 after 1.

Then both hurlers settled down, and the score was unchanged through 5 innings. Jeff Bagwell took Rogan deep in the 6th, and when that was followed by a walk to Paul Goldschmidt, JM Ward was summoned from the Philadelphia bullpen. Ward retired Pete Hill, and the Stars still led, 4-2.

Judge was not to be denied, hitting one out of the park after Rogan was hit by a pitch. Fregosi followed with his 2nd of the day, chasing Chamberlain who gave up only 4 hits, but 8 runs.

Judge would add another, and Bill Dickey would go deep as well in what turned out to be a bit of walkover, 10-2 in favor of the Stars. Judge drove in 4 and Fregosi 5 on the day as Philadelphia corrected their errors of the first 2 games scoring 10 runs on 6 hits and leaving only a single runner on base.

HOU 2 (Chamberlain 0-1) @ PHI 10 (Rogan 1-0; Ward 1 H)
HRs: HOU – Bagwell (3); PHI – Fregosi 2 (2), Judge 2 (4), Dickey (1).
Box Score

#Game 4, Sun Oct 7

Game 4 presents challenges for each team’s pitching staffs.

For Houston, Stephen Strasburg‘s solid performances down the stretch earned him the start, while Philadelphia will counter with their ace, Hardie Henderson, fully rested after a very short appearance in game 1.

Henderson started well, but walked 3 batters to start the top of the 2nd. George Brett doubled home 2 runs and another scored on a groundout from Jim O’Rourke. Pete Hill tripled home another run and scored on a sacrifice fly from Paul Goldschmidt, making it 5-0.

Chase Utley took Strasburg deep with Willie Davis on 2nd in the 3rd, closing the gap to 5-2.

A leadoff single from Craig Biggio chased Henderson, bringing in Robin Roberts. Bill Dickey whipped Roberts first strike to first, catching Biggio leaning the wrong way–something that may matter, as Jim Wynn followed with a homerun. Houston now led, 6-2–we’ll see if that extra run comes back to haunt them.

Scott Rolen went deep in the bottom of the 4th. 6-3. Doubles from Dickey and Sherry Magee plated another run in the 5th. 6-4.

But Tony Gwynn singled in 2 runs in the 6th to restore the cushion, making it 8-4, Houston.

A 1 out walk to Rolen in the 6th chased Strasburg after a decent enough effort, but Andrew Chafin was able to escape unscathed. The 7th did not go as well for Chafin, who gave up opening singles to Davis and Utley. In came Jim Kern, who induced a double play from Magee and a sharp grounder to short from Charles Rogan, preserving the lead.

But in the 8th, Jim Fregosi came through with a 2-run shot, cutting the lead in half, 8-6.

Philadelphia’s bullpen sort of imploded in the 9th: Bagwell doubled and scored on a single by Hill, who scored on a double by Goldschmidt. Wynn then drew a bases loaded walk, and Gwynn singled in 2 more runs. The 5 run explosion made it 13-6, Houston.

Philadelphia had some baserunners, but it came to naught, and Houston took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

Brett and Gwynn had 3 hits each with Gwynn, now hitting .353 in the series, driving in 4 runs on the day.

The bottom of the Stars’ order came to play, with Dickey, Davis, and Utley each having 2 hits.

HOU 13 (Strasburg 1-0, Kern 2 H, McGraw 3 H) @ PHI 6 (Henderson 0-2)
HRs: HOU – Wynn (1); PHI – Utley (1), Rolen (1), Fregosi (3).
Box Score

#Game 5, Mon Oct 8

Perhaps surprisingly, the first team with a chance to clinch their spot in the Division Series is the Houston Colt 45’s. The stellar Toad Ramsey gets the ball for Houston, while the Stars will turn to Ray Collins.

Jeff Bagwell singled in a run in the top of the first, and then Paul Goldschmidt launched a ball deep into the OF. An odd bounce and a poor throw later, and Goldschmidt had an inside-the-park homerun and Houston had a 3-0 edge.

Ramsey started a bit rough giving up singles to Sherry Magee, Aaron Judge, and Scott Rolen to score 1 and a 2-out double to Charles Rogan, resetting the game in a tie. Houston nudged ahead again when George Brett, who had tripled, scored on an RBI groundout from Jorge Posada.

And then both pitchers remembered how to pitch: the score remained 4-3, Houston, through 6 innings, which marked the end of Collins’ day.

Bagwell greeted Brad Kilby with a solo shot in the top of the 8th, extending the lead to 5-3. Houston brought in Jim Kern for the 8th, and he struck out 2, preserving the 2 run advantage, and then they padded it, scoring 3 in the top of the 9th (2 on Carlos Correa‘s first homerun of the series).

The Colt 45’s brought in Sparky Lyle with a 5 run edge, leading 8-3. Rico Carty and Rogan whiffed, bringing Philadelphia to their last batter, catcher Bill Dickey … a hard groundball, fielded by Correa, rifled to first. And Houston is through to the Division Series!

Bagwell, Gwynn, Brett, and Posada each had 2 hits for the Colt 45’s.

HOU 8 (Ramsey 2-0) @ PHI 3 (Collins 0-1)
HRs: HOU – Goldschmidt (3), Bagwell (4), Correa (1); PHI – none.
Box Score

Bagwell, who hit .300 with 4 homeruns, was named Series MVP, but Goldschmidt and Gwynn deserved consideration as well. And, perhaps most importantly for Houston, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Jim Kern, and Andrew Chafin combined for over 10 innings of scoreless work out of the bullpen.

Aaron Judge (.421 with 4 homeruns and 6 RBIs) also deserved at least cursory MVP consideration.

TWIWBL 82.5: Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Brooklyn Royal Giants91-58.611
Philadelphia Stars76-73.51015
Homestead Grays71-78.47720
New York Gothams71-79.47320.5
Ottawa Mounties69-80.46322
Effa Manley Division | 17 September

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

Dickie Thon was recalled from a rehab assignment, along with Dick Redding, Eric Karros, and Raúl Mondesi. With Brooklyn having clinched the pennant, look for Karros and Jim Gentile to platoon at 1B, and for Redding to get a few starts in the final 2 weeks of the season.

Redding pitched well in his first start, but wasn’t around for the decision in a 5-4, 12 inning win over Kansas City. Ron Cey went deep twice, as the victory went to Trevor Hildenberger, who improved to 6-2 on the year.

With Dan Brouthers‘ return from injury, Karros was returned to the minors.

John Briggs hit 2 out, giving him 30 on the year, as the Royal Giants beat the Gothams, 7-6 in 10 innings.

#Homestead Grays

David Price will miss most of the reset of the season with young Tim Lincecum being recalled for a few more WBL innings.

#New York Gothams

Despite a decent showing in his last outing, the Gothams sent Guy Hecker down to take a look at young Masahiro Tanaka, who impressed all season at AA.

While Christy Mathewson and Gaylord Perry may each get a start or 2 as the year winds down, the Gothams are looking at the last 2 weeks as a time to audition arms for next year. With that in mind, OFs George Van Haltren and Ben Oglivie were traded out for Wally Berger and Fred Lewis.

Benny Kauff hit 2 out and Tanaka had a solid debut as the Gothams edged Homestead, 8-7.

#Ottawa Mounties

Clark Griffith was sent back to the minors, allowing the Mounties to take a look at Billy Koch, who has a chance at a bullpen role next year.

Larry Walker‘s magnificent season may be over, as the OF/1B with a near 1.000 OPS heads to the DL. Mike Sharperson was recalled from AAA for the final 10 days of the season.

Max Scherzer strained a hamstring, landing the young right-hander on the 60 Day DL. Chris Bosio was recalled for the final week.

#Philadelphia Stars

With AAA club Norfolk being knocked out of the playoffs, the Stars recalled Ps Don Newcombe and John Burkett, IFs Jung Ho Kang and Harmon Killebrew, C Sherm Lollar, and OF Odúbel Herrera.

Harry Hooper–who has struggled since joining the Stars–will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. Rafael Palmiero was recalled, creating even more of a logjam at 1B for the Stars.

With Bill Gatewood‘s return from injury, Burkett was returned to the minors.

Newcombe made a statement in his first start of the year, twirling a 3-hit, complete game shutout of Ottawa. Powered by a grandslam from Scott Rolen as well as homeruns from Aaron Judge and Chase Utley, the Stars rolled to a 7-0 win. Newcombe fanned 7 and didn’t walk anyone, showing the promise that made him so highly rated before a disastrous season last year when he led the WBL in losses. Perhaps now, on his 3rd franchise, the 31 year old is finally set to deliver.

TWIWBL 80.3: A Preliminary Look at the Gold Gloves

{Every year towards the end of the season, I do some legwork so when the awards roll around, it’s not as burdensome. This week, the fielders, next week, the rookies.}

We’re going to do this position by position, mixing the leagues, with the candidates listed alphabetically. 600 IP minimum, unless otherwise noted.

Last year, only 1 set of awards were given; this year, with the creation of the NL, there will be 2 at each position.

Some of the positions have their own things, but a note about some of the standard fielding statistics. Range Factor measures the number of plays made per game–the higher the better. Zone Rating attempts to credit players for plays other fielders missed and ding them for plays other fielders made–the higher the better, and it has the benefit of being comparative across the position. Defensive Efficiency measures the rate at which an individual fielder contributes to outs being made on balls put into play, with any score over 1.000 being a net positive impact.

Of these, Range Factor is the most susceptible to the impact of the pitching staff and the ballpark, although none of these defensive ratings are perfect.

#C

NameTmLgIPAEPBZRRTO%cERAFRM
Johnny BenchINDNL9671124103.540%5.267.6
Curt BlefaryBALAL937103242.038%5.681.6
Gary CarterOTTNL900114594.342%6.154.9
Josh GibsonHOMNL97310236-1.530%5.987.7
Elrod HendricksHODNL825104474.641%5.473.9
Joe MauerPORAL974129562.737%5.364.9
Thurman MunsonNYYAL95791623.036%5.293.0
Mike PiazzaBRKNL96688212-2.831%4.624.5
Buster PoseyNYGNL933100492.639%5.438.0
Iván RodríguezMCGAL9171162145.347%5.611.8
Ted SimmonsKCMNL907108552.437%4.31-2.3
IP = Innings Played; A = Assists; E = Errors; PB = Passed Balls; ZR = Zone Rating; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; cERA = Catcher’s ERA; FRM = Framing Runs Saved

Catcher’s stats are just all over the place.

It’s hard to take cERA and FRM all that seriously when they fall so far outside the bounds of the rest of the information at our disposal–although, to be fair, cERA is clearly tied to the quality of the staff and, as such, perhaps is best viewed as a net difference from the overall team ERA. Perhaps I’ll look at that for the actual awards.

Regardless, it feels like, if you look at a catcher’s primary job of making plays and keeping the opposition running game under control, Carter in the NL and Pudge in the AL are the frontrunners. The argument against each, if there is one, would have to focus on their league-leading (in the wrong way) PB numbers.

But this one doesn’t really feel close at this point.

Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Louis Santop, has struggled so much offensively this year that his playing time has really dropped him out of contention, although his defensive performance remains top-notch.

#1B

NameTmLgIPTCADPERNGZREff
Mike EpsteinHOMNL957952568048.933.01.016
Hank GreenbergDETAL973891587448.202.71.022
Kent HrbekPORAL884846457958.571.81.028
Don MattinglyNYYAL710642405458.071.81.031
Dan McGannBALAL879887666969.02-1.9.978
Boog PowellKCMNL978998568049.153.01.016
Joey VottoINDNL942863627608.254.51.040
Bill WhiteMEMAL793812356669.150.41.007
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

The 2 best defensive 1Bs in the league–Kansas City’s Boog Powell and Indianapolis’ Joey Votto–are both in the NL. So the competition there is clear, as is, ultimately, the current frontrunner in Powell. Votto’s edge in the digital measures–ZR and Efficiency–may make this a more challenging choice at the end of the year.

In the AL, it’s far more confusing, but it feels like the discussion is between Detroit’s Hank Greenberg and the Black Yankees’ Don Mattingly. Mattingly hasn’t played a ton, so perhaps Greenberg edges him? Portland’s Kent Hrbek could probably edge into the discussion as well.

Will Clark of the New York Gothams, who won it last year, has been fine, but falls just short of contention.

#2B

Five 2B had only 3 errors, but 2 of them–Brooklyn’s Jackie Robinson and Boston’s DJ LeMahieu–have under 700 innings at the position. LeMahieu is the leader in Defensive Efficiency, so he made the list, but Robinson did not.

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Roberto AlomarOTTNL103551162104.36-3.1.978
Robinson CanóKCMNL9945247654.709.71.060
Eddie CollinsCAGAL99552877114.67-7.6.943
Miller HugginsBALAL7963835054.279.11.097
Chuck KnoblauchCLEAL9514436434.16-9.6.926
Nap LajoieHOMNL8764856644.947.31.049
DJ LeMahieuMEMAL6443455334.787.71.110
Cookie RojasMCGAL7383636234.39-3.6.965
Ryne SandbergHODNL8634896035.075.41.035
Chase UtleyPHINL9885386124.8813.81.081
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Ryne Sandberg and Napoleon Lajoie have had fine years at 2B, but Philadelphia’s Chase Utley has been fairly spectacular, leading the world in Zone Rating with excellent numbers across the board.

The AL is more confusing, as the best fielders–Miller Huggins and DJ LeMahieu–have yet to hit 800 innings in the field. But there really aren’t a lot of other contenders: Eddie Collins, who won it last year, has amassed a ton of time at 2B, and hence is among the leaders in the counting stats, but his other numbers are surprisingly bad.

#SS

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Jim FregosiPOR/PHIAL/NL10774976084.09-10.6.940
Derek JeterNYYAL106150467164.14-19.0.911
Barry LarkinINDNL7053804994.748.31.085
Dick LundySFSAL8384114664.358.21.057
Freddy ParentCAGAL88850856115.0413.21.058
Ozzie SmithKCMNL10195436754.7511.01.068
Arky VaughanCLEAL9404445384.1710.41.085
Robin YountMCGAL9524735964.418.31.052
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like the choices here are pretty clear: Ozzie Smith in the NL and Freddy Parent in the AL. Smith should be uncontroversial, but Parent is subject to some discussion, as he is getting less and less playing time for the American Giants. If it’s not Parent, it is probably Arky Vaughan or Robin Yount, with the question being whether Yount’s surer hands outweigh Vaughan’s greater range.

George Davis, who won it last year, logged just under 50 games with Detroit before being sent to AAA and suffering a significant injury.

#3B

NameTmLgIPTCDPERNGZREff
Dick AllenCAGAL104626024152.110.51.010
Buddy BellPORAL10452962382.487.91.054
Adrián BeltréOTTNL936272672.550.31.007
Ron CeyBRKNL9562782472.554.71.035
Manny MachadoBALAL85725914102.610.91.013
Eddie MathewsBBBNL10142912982.51-2.6.986
Doug RaderLAAAL104728726132.350.91.021
Scott RolenPHINL9732651672.394.01.050
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Portland’s Buddy Bell has probably been the best 3B in the WBL this season, so he should take the award in the AL. In the NL, it currently comes down to Scott Rolen and Ron Cey, whose numbers are pretty indistinguishable at this point, perhaps with a slight edge to Cey.

#LF

For the OF, DP is replaced by Outfield Kills, and we introduce ARM, a measurement of how many runs have resulted from runners taking extra bases on balls hit to the that fielder. Note that positive ARM ratings are relatively rare: runners do tag up.

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Johnny BatesCLEAL1006205422.097.01.053-1.0
Bob BescherINDNL681149121.94-4.3.950-2.1
Don BufordLAA/NYGAL/NL705127011.61-2.8.957-0.6
Rickey HendersonSFSAL1040199341.6910.01.104-2.8
Sherry MageePHINL658127101.743.71.046-1.9
Bob NiemanBBBNL720145421.79-1.0.961-1.6
Frank RobinsonBALAL897184421.830.3.998-1.8
Babe RuthNYYAL627128121.815.71.084-1.3
Roy WhiteBRKNL1006213521.899.31.075-1.2
Jim WynnHOUNL755140021.64-4.4.9553.3
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

It feels like Roy White has a shot at being the first repeat winner as he has once again proven incredibly dependable in LF for Brooklyn, while adding more Kills and excellent supporting numbers.

In the AL, It feels like it’s the range of Rickey Henderson against the overall dependability of Johnny Bates–who actually makes more plays the Rickey, but some of that is down to staff effects.

Have to call out the nutty ARM rating for Jim Wynn, which is as flukish as fluke can be.

#CF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Paul BlairBALAL838251322.7310.41.084-2.3
Chili DavisDETAL9792831382.53-12.5.9281.5
Willie DavisPHINL898287432.8515.21.109-2.0
Curtis GrandersonBBBNL974317152.884.81.030-4.6
Pete HillHOUNL800222222.470.7.997-2.8
Willie MaysNYGNL1065327342.7311.31.046-4.2
Willie McGeeKCMNL8452611072.71-5.9.963-1.4
Mike TroutLAAAL940282212.69-0.21.006-3.3
Vernon WellsCAGAL624209232.97-5.2.968-2.6
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

Not a lot to pick from in the AL, which increases Paul Blair‘s chance at a repeat selection. It probably comes down to Blair’s overall excellence against the spectacular highlight reel nature of Chili Davis‘ year: Davis hasn’t made all the plays, but has thrown out 13 runners. Mike Trout is in the conversation, but Blair edges him across the board, and is the likely frontrunner.

In the NL, things are much deeper, and we run into the question of how to weigh playing time. Willie Mays has similar numbers to Willie Davis, but over 200 more innings in the field, which I think is enough to give him the edge. Some mention should be made of the steady Curtis Granderson and the surprising 10 kills from Kansas City’s Willie McGee.

#RF

NameTmLgIPTCKERNGZREffARM
Beals BeckerBRKNL1022233732.033.01.0070.7
Mookie BettsMEMAL775166101.936.81.076-3.7
Roberto ClementeHOMNL973243862.195.61.050-3.1
Larry DobyCLEAL768186172.105.01.064-4.2
Stan MusialKCMNL801157241.727.01.0720.8
Ichiro SuzukiLAAAL1035227501.975.41.036-2.4
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; K = Outfield Kills; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency

This is very close in both leagues.

In the NL, you could make an argument for all 3 of the contenders: Brooklyn’s Beals Becker has been steady across the board; Stan Musial covers a huge amount of ground for Kansas City and has a higher ARM than Becker; and Roberto Clemente makes the most plays and has the most Kills. I think it’s Clemente or Musial, with Musial slightly in front, maybe?

Over in the AL, it’s between Mookie Betts and Ichiro Suzuki, neither of whom have made an error in RF this season. Betts has been slightly better with the glove, Suzuki slightly better with the arm. Perhaps Suzuki, partially because he has played more innings in RF than anyone.

Last year’s winner, Johnny Callison, has done well this season, but is just out of the conversation. Mention should be made of Ottawa’s Larry Walker as well: Walker doesn’t cover a ton of ground, but has only made a single error in RF this season.

#P

125 IP minimum.

A few additional stat for hurlers, including the number of steal attempts and the % thrown out as well as the number of runs gained through their catcher’s ability to frame strikes. Obviously, both of these are highly dependent on the quality of backstop, but they also do impact the evaluation of the pitcher.

We’ve also taking out E and DP as stats, as odd as that may seem, as there is just not enough variance to really make much of them.

NameTmLgIPTCRNGZREffSBARTO%FRM
Roger ClemensHOUNL183130.64-3.01.6596125-0.4
Gerrit ColeLAAAL155211.220.51.43844320.4
Pud GalvinLAAAL130241.661.31.1493139-0.7
Bump HadleySFSAL164301.65-0.3.99662340.5
Walter JohnsonPORAL189190.914.81.21728610.3
José MéndezMCGAL200200.904.41.0864356-0.7
Stubby OvermireMEMAL175211.082.2.8531663-0.0
Gaylord PerryNYGNL185311.51-0.3.99635290.7
Toad RamseyHOUNL196180.781.0.9134241-0.5
Bob RushHODNL156261.443.3.99619630.0
Jack TaylorHODNL163191.055.6.99641630.0
Doc WhiteINDNL13080.551.8.99618501.9
IP = Innings Played; TC = Total Chances; A = Assists; DP = Double Plays; E = Errors; RNG = Range Factor; ZR = Zone Rating; Eff = Defensive Efficiency; SBA = Stolen Bases Attempted; RTO% = Runners Thrown Out%; FRM = Framing Runs

Who knows? Small sample sizes are rough, although it is nice to see last year’s winner, Jack Taylor, make a return appearance.

Taylor makes a lot of plays, and is very hard to run on, both of which count for quite a bit. I think an argument could be made for Pud Galvin, as well as for Taylor’s teammate, Bob Rush, but I would expect a fair bit of this to change over the final month of the season.

TWIWBL 74.5: Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Brooklyn Royal Giants55-41.573
Homestead Grays53-44.5462.5
New York Gothams50-50.5007
Philadelphia Stars48-51.4858.5
Ottawa Mounties47-51.4809
Effa Manley Division | 23 July

#Homestead Grays

Moose Haas was returned to AAA with Bartolo Colón being recalled to the Grays’ bullpen. Cliff Lee will miss up to a couple weeks with a stiff back, earning the lefty hurler a trip to the DL. Hal Carlson was recalled.

Josh Gibson bust out of a mini-slump in a big way, going deep twice and driving in 5, bringing him over 100 RBI’s on the season. But Pops Stargell was the star, following an RBI double from Gibson with a walkoff 3-run shot in the bottom of the 9th in an 11-9 win over Kansas City.

#New York Gothams

Johnny Callison hit 2 out, but it wasn’t enough as the Gothams fell to Houston, 8-3. Different day, same story: Buster Posey had 2 homers in a 7-4 loss to Brooklyn.

#Philadelphia Stars

Aaron Judge hit 2 out and Charles Rogan was a single short of the cycle as the Stars beat Birmingham, 9-7. Despite some struggles, Hardie Henderson improved to 12-7 on the year, with Bob Howry picking up his 14th save.

Chase Utley had himself a day: 2 homers, 4 runs, and 5 hits in a 12-5 win over Birmingham. Judge and Rico Carty also went deep as Steve Carlton evened his record at 9-9. Utley did it again later in the week with 2 more homers, but this time the Stars fell to Ottawa, 9-5.

TWIWBL 71.5: Effa Manley Division

TeamW/LPctGB
Brooklyn Royal Giants47-34.580
Homestead Grays43-38.5314
New York Gothams43-41.5125.5
Philadelphia Stars39-44.4709
Ottawa Mounties38-44.4639.5
Effa Manley Division | 2 July

#Brooklyn Royal Giants

The much maligned Pedro Guerrero had himself a day, hitting 3 homeruns and delivering the walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 11th as Brooklyn topped Birmingham, 8-7.

Beals Becker went deep twice and Fernando Valenzuela was fantastic as the Royal Giants beat the House of David, 4-1. Valenzuela improved to 6-1 with the complete game effort, allowing only 2 hits while whiffing 10.

Mike Piazza hit 2 out, giving him 33 on the year, and, in fantastically welcome news for Brooklyn, Don Drysedale put in his best start of the season as the Royal Giants topped the House of David, 9-1.

#Homestead Grays

Reliever Dave Giusti was sent to AAA, with Russ Kemmerer recalled to take his place in the bullpen.

Rick Reichardt hit two homeruns, including a grand slam, and Josh Gibson had 4 hits, raising his average to .399 as we hit the all star break. All in all, the Grays pounded out 23 hits in a 12-4 thumping of Ottawa.

#New York Gothams

Vean Gregg–called into emergency duty as a starter–turned in a great effort, combining with Mike Norris and Brian Wilson on 3-hit shutout of Ottawa. Pinky Higgins delivered all of the runs with a 3-run shot, his 9th of the year and Gregg fanned 9 in his 6+ innings of work. Norris picked up his 7th hold and Wilson his 12th save of the season.

Buster Posey hit 2 homeruns, but the Gothams fell to Ottawa, 7-5. This unfortunate pattern repeated as Larry Doyle hit his 10th and 11th of the year in an 11-9 loss to the Stars.

#Ottawa Mounties

Ottawa firmly believes in the talent of Randy Johnson. But there’s just so many unsuccessful attempts to move his ERA under 9.00 they can stomach. So they’re sending The Big Unit to AAA in hopes he can harness his immense talent. Clark Griffith–not exactly successful historically with the Mounties–was recalled. Bob Watson also headed to AAA after a mostly unsuccessful few months with Roy Sievers returning to WBL action.

The Rick Monday parade continues, with the shocking performance of the rookie continuing with 2 homeruns in a 4-1 win over the Gothams, giving him 18 on the year. As importantly for Mounties’ fans, Roy Halladay turned in a good performance, improving to 8-6, and Tom Henke picked up his 5th save of the season.

Monday did it again, hitting out 2 for 20 on the year and Gary Carter also went yard twice (giving him 30) as the Mounties beat the Gothams, 7-5.

Tim Raines–of all people–went deep twice, but it wasn’t enough as Ottawa fell to Homestead, 8-5.

#Philadelphia Stars

Bullet Joe Rogan was masterful, hitting his 16th homerun and tossing a 1 hitter as the Stars beat the Gothams, 3-0. Rogan walked 1 and whiffed 8 in the complete game effort, improving his record to 5-8 on the year.

Chase Utley hit a 2-run walkoff homer in the bottom of the 10th, giving the Stars an 11-9 win over the Gothams. Scott Rolen went deep twice, and Aaron Judge, Rico Carty, Ted Kluszewski, and Mike Sciosia also sent balls over the fence.

TWIWBL 71.2 Spotlight on the Indianapolis ABC’s

Indianapolis missed the playoffs last year. This season, they are neck-and-neck with Kansas City to lead the Marvin Miller Division, sitting currently at 5 games over .500. So something’s gotten better.

The ABC’s inherit players from a franchise with a long history, but surprisingly little actual success, the Cincinnati Reds.

HOME PAGE | ROSTER | POSITIONAL STRENGTH | LEADERS

This is a pitching-and-defense kind of team, but honestly it feels like they are sort of doing it with mirrors right now.

THE OFFENSE

The ABC’s are fast, but really aren’t a terribly imposing offense. It’s a reasonably standard problem: there is a handful of excellence surrounded by a lot of mediocrity.

Overall, the ABC’s–other than Oscar Charleston and Joe Morgan–just don’t hit very well, with only those two, Bob Bescher and Tommy Helms sporting batting averages over .260.

There is some power, with 6 batters in double-digits for HR, led by Adam Dunn‘s 24, but the offense is just shut down far too often.

#What’s Going Right

Oscar Charleston has blossomed, with the 20 year old OFer slashing 336/386/642 and leading the team in 2B, 3B, RBI, and R.

When healthy, Joe Morgan looks to have an argument to be the best 2B in the WBL, hitting over .300, drawing a ton of walks, and even flashing some power. But Little Joe has only played in roughly half Indianapolis’ games so far this season. So, we’ll see.

Adam Dunn and Joey Votto are eerie clones of each other, and they’re doing very well in terms of drawing walks and hitting for power (Dunn leads the ABC’s with 24 homers; Votto has added 16).

George Foster has hit for impressive power as a rookie, although the rest of his game needs some seasoning.

Barry Larkin, who was essentially awful last year, has slowly extended his claim on the starting SS spot.

Bob Bescher gets on base a lot and is very, very fast–a .359 OBP and 38 steals, with only 7 times being caught.

Luis Padrón has been something slightly above mediocre as a position player, allowing some roster flexibility.

#What’s Not Going Right

The biggest issue is Johnny Bench who, despite 21 dingers, is only slashing 2228/290/510. Now, he did hit 267/371/720 in June, so perhaps he is reverting to his form of last year, but overall it’s been a struggle, with Bench dropping down significantly in the lineup.

The rest of the roster–3B and all the reserves–have been quite poor with Robin Ventura being particularly disappointing to date.

THE PITCHING

The ABC’s are the only team in the WBL committed to a 6-man rotation, and while the top 3 or 4 slots tend to stay somewhat stable, the rest is in somewhat constant flux.

This year, it’s working more often than not, and the bullpen has been solid.

Still, there are causes for concern all over the place, as most everyone’s secondary numbers are a little weak.

#What’s Going Right

Johnny Cueto, Rube Foster, and Luis Padrón look set at the front of the rotation. Padrón has the best record in the league at 11-2, and Cueto and Foster both have sub-4.00 ERA’s. All three have decent peripherals, but Cueto and Padrón especially seem strong enough to carry a staff.

Rob Dibble has 16 saves despite being torched occasionally.

Jack Billingham has been excellent late in games, contributing across the board with a 4-1 record, 22 saves and 6 holds.

Rob Murphy is tied for the WBL lead with 11 holds.

#What’s Not Going Right

Last year’s darlings, Doc White and Willie Mitchell, are a combined 5-11 with ERA’s around 6.00.

The Only Nolan has hit a rough patch, putting what looked like a promising debut season in doubt.

Dick Tidrow has been atrocious, and is most likely not long for the WBL roster.

THE FARM SYSTEM

TOP PROSPECTS | MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM

There is roster filler here, but little high end talent. 3B/SS Oliver Marcell is the highest rated prospect, but 19 year old Tom Glavine may have a higher ceiling. On the IF, Donie Bush and Matt Chapman have some promise, but other than that … Bob Ewing? Jim Maloney? Chris Hammond? Yeah, roster filler.

WHAT’S NEEDED

The top-end performers to keep doing their thing while everyone else takes small steps forward. That would be enough to at least keep Indianapolis in contention for the post-season, which would be a successful season.

Storylines to Watch

Key Questions from Spring Training

  • Who starts, and does the team retain its experimentation with a 6-man rotation? The answer to the second question is yes, yes they do and the answer to the first seems fine: Cueto, Padron, and Foster, and then a makeshift group as things unfold.
  • How do the uncertainties at SS/3B resolve? Still an issue. Larkin looks to have claimed SS, but 3B remains fairly open.

FEATURED SERIES

July starts with a four game series at Philadelphia, so that’s what we’ll focus on.

Projected Starters

Indianapolis starter listed first.

Luis Padrón (11-2, 4.21) @ Charles Rogan (4-7, 4.68)
Rube Foster (6-4, 3.80) @ J.M. Ward (3-4, 4.11)
Edward Nolan (3-4, 5.32) @ Steve Carlton (7-8, 5.47)
Willie Mitchell (1-5, 5.89) @ Ray Collins (1-4, 5.40)

Game One

Luis Padrón has struggled at the plate, so the ABC’s decided he would just concentrate in his pitching in this one; the Stars had no such concerns, and Bullet Joe Rogan would take the mound and serve as DH.

Through 4 innings, Rogan had allowed only 2 hits, but they were both solo homeruns (1 to Emil Frisk, the other to Joey Votto) while Padrón had kept the Stars hitless. So, 2-0 Indianapolis.

Frisk went deep again in the 5th, and Oscar Charleston drove in a run to extend the lead to 5-0.

Chase Utley broke up the no-hitter in the bottom of the frame, but that was really it: the Stars bullpen held until the 9th, but Padrón was just too good, dominating Philadelphia in a 2-hit shutout. He improved to 12-2 on the year, dropped his ERA below 4.00, and most likely cemented his position as the starting pitcher in the all-star game for the NL.

IND 6 (Padrón 12-2) @ PHI 0 (Rogan 4-8)
HRs: IND – Votto (17), Frisk 2 (3); PHI – none.
Box Score

Game Two

The ABC’s would face John M0ntgomery Ward in the middle game, which is sort of a mixed bag: Ward’s peripheral numbers are great, but his record is only 3-4 and he’s struggled to get his ERA below the magical 4.00 mark. Indianapolis would counter with Rube Foster, whose 3.80 ERA makes an argument for his inclusion in the all-star game.

And then game the first inning: Philadelphia batted around, scored 6 runs, and Foster’s ERA ballooned to 4.35. He settled down after that and–surprisingly–made it through 5 innings, bringing his ERA back down to 4.17. Still.

Ward was dealing, making much of the rest of the game moot. He was finally chased by a moonshot from Joe Morgan, which closed the score to 8-2. He was relieved by Brad Kilby, who promptly gave up a homerun to Emil Frisk.

But the game was over, ending up 9-3 behind Ward’s fine outing. Willie Davis and Chase Utley had 3 hits each for the Stars.

IND 3 (Foster 6-5) @ PHI 9 (Ward 4-4)
HRs: IND – Morgan (15), Frisk (4); PHI – none.
Box Score

Game Three

With the series tied at 1 each, game 3 would see The Only Nolan take the mound for Indianapolis, opposed by Philadelphia’s Steve Carlton.

The ABC’s took the early lead on a 2-run shot by Joey Votto in the top of the first, but RBI singles from Butch Wynegar and Jimmy Rollins tied it up in the bottom of the 2nd. Philadelphia then took the lead on Aaron Judge‘s 25th homer of the year in the following inning, making it 3-2 in favor of the Stars.

Indianapolis rebounded on George Foster‘s 15 homer of the year, a 2-run shot making it 4-3.

Nolan couldn’t get an out in the 6th, allowing a double to Rico Carty and a walk to to Ted Kluszewski before being replaced by Willie Mitchell. Mitchell got 2 outs, but then surrendered a game-tying single to Rollins.

Carlton lasted a little longer, but departed in the top of the 8th after surrendering a single to Luis Padrón and hitting Joe Morgan with a pitch. After a walk, Oscar Charleston and Joey Votto singled and eventually Ed Charles doubled, making the score 10-4 in favor of the ABC’s.

That’s how it would end, with Votto finishing the game with 4 RBI’s as Indianapolis took a 2-1 lead in the series.

IND 10 (Mitchell 2-5, 1 BSv) @ PHI 4 (Carlton 7-9)
HRs: IND – Votto (18), Foster (15); PHI – Judge (25).
Box Score

Game Four

The series would end with Indianapolis’ Doc White taking on Ray Collins.

George Foster opened the scoring in the 2nd with a solo shot, but Joe Rogan put Philadelphia on top an inning later, launching his 15th of the year with 2 runners on base. White would give up 2 more in the 4th on RBI hits from Chase Utley and Sherry Magee. Singles to open up the 6th by Ted Kluszewski and Mike Scioscia finally chased White and brought Mike LaCoss in for his WBL debut.

Collins was finally touched for another run in the 7th, but Fred Cambria was able to work out of a jam, preserving the Stars’ 5-2 lead.

Joey Votto launched his 19th of the year in the top of the 9th off Stars’ closer Bob Howry to close it to 5-4, but that was all the ABC’s could muster.

Joe Morgan had 3 hits for Indianapolis, but it wasn’t enough, and the series ends in an even split.

IND 4 (White 4-7) @ PHI 5 (Collins 2-4; Howry 12 Sv; Cambria 1 H; Kennedy 9 H)
HRs: IND – Foster (16), Votto (19); PHI – Rogan (15).
Box Score

It’s not bad, but if the ABC’s are going to solidify their position, they need to beat up on the weaker teams, like the Stars. But 3 homeruns for Votto and 2 for Frisk and Foster are decent signs, for sure.

TWIWBL 71.1: Year 2, Week 14

July 2nd

We’ll preview the All Star selections, so this will be a bit of a longer entry.

#Awards

Lots of awards, as we moved into a new month!

First, the smaller ones. Houston‘s Jeff Bagwell was the National League Player of the Week, hitting .409 with 5 homeruns while Eric Davis of the juggernaut New York Black Yankees was the American League Player of the Week, hitting .481 with 5 homers in the same span.

In the monthly awards, the American League Rookie of the Month for June was San Francisco‘s Turkey Stearnes, who hit .378 with 11 homeruns in the month.

Kansas City‘s A. Rube Foster was both the National League Rookie of the Month and the NL Pitcher of the Month, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, as the young hurler announced himself as, at least so far, a premier WBL starter. The American League Pitcher of the Month was Bump Hadley, Stearnes’ teammate in San Francisco. Hadley was 5-0 in June with a 2.66 ERA.

Ottawa‘s star backstop, Gary Carter, was the National League Batter of the Month, hitting .397 with 14 homeruns in June while in the American League, unsurprisingly, the award went to the stellar Ty Cobb. The Detroit OF hit .408 with 11 homers in June, which actually brought his overall average down in that span (Cobb is leading the WBL in BA at .418).

#Team Performance

Yawn.

The Black Yankees and the Sea Lions continue to be the 2 best teams in the league, leading their divisions by 5 and 11 games respectively.

The Effa Manley Division might offer some excitement in the second half, as Brooklyn still leads Homestead by 4 and the New York Gothams by 5.5. But the only true race is in the Marvin Miller Division, where Kansas City has overtaken Indianapolis, now leading the ABC’s by 2.5 games.

The Houston Colt 45’s are 8-2 over their last 10 games, but still sit 5 games under .500. Detroit and Philadelphia are moving in the other direction, with each team managing only 2 wins in their last 10 contests.

Birmingham still has the worst record in the league, but they have moved over .400, sitting at .410 (34-49).

#Player Performance

Batters

It’s still Ty Cobb’s world, although Babe Ruth is doing Babe Ruth things, and reached the 40 homerun plateau during the last week.

José Canseco (MCG). 254/375/734. 36 HR.
Oscar Charleston (IND). 336/386/642. 103 H, 9 3B.
Ty Cobb (DET). 416/464/885. 116 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 5.8 WAR.
Josh Gibson (HOM). 392/481/748. 5.1 WAR.
Tony Gwynn (HOU). 389/425/601. 116 H.
Pete Hill (HOU). 291/371/487. 10 3B.
Joe Jackson (CAG). 356/398/588. 103 H, 39 2B.
Stan Musial (KCM). 329/392/573. 37 2B.
Babe Ruth (NYY). 292/426/775. 40 HR, 90 RBI, 82 R, 68 BB, 5.0 WAR.
Larry Walker (OTT). 293/369/721. 36 HR, 85 RBI.

Rickey Henderson (San Francisco) and Tim Raines (Ottawa) continue to be 1-2 in the league in steals, but it’s getting closer, with Henderson’s edge now 60 to 53.

Pitchers

Starters

While his performance has been somewhat below par, the New York Gothams’ Christy Mathewson continues to be definition of workhorse, leading the WBL with 20 starts, 2 ahead of a bevy of hurlers with 18.

7 pitchers have reached double-digits in wins, with Luis Padrón (Indianapolis) leading the way at 11-2. All 7 are included below. Houston’s Toad Ramsey was so dominant for so long, he is still the top starter in the league despite a recent dip in form, but I would probably choose Lefty Grove of San Francisco or the emergent A. Rube Foster.

Frank Castillo (KCM). 10-1, 4.22.
A. Rube Foster (KCM). 5-1, 2.30. .203 BABIP, 0.98 WHIP, 3.70 FIP.
Lefty Grove (SFS). 10-4, 3.71. 126 IP, 132 K, 3.1 WAR.
Ron Guidry (NYY). 8-4, 3.86. 143 K, 3.80 FIP, 3.2 WAR.
Bump Hadley (SFS). 11-4, 4.21, 3.50 FIP, 3.0 WAR.
Orel Hershiser (BRK). 10-4, 3.87.
Luis Padrón (IND). 11-2, 4.21. 3.57 FIP, 3.3 WAR.
Eddie Plank (SFS). 11-3, 3.54.
Toad Ramsey (HOU). 11-4, 2.77. 124 IP, 152 K, 0.89 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 5.2 WAR.
Ed Walsh (CAG). 6-3, 3.41. 1 Sv, .201 BABIP.
Smokey Joe Williams (BRK). 7-7, 3.41. 3.66 FIP, 3.4 WAR.

Relievers

We’ve listed the top 3 leaders in saves, all 5 of the relievers who have reached double digits in Holds, as well as all 5 with an ERA below 2.00.

18 IP minimum.

Rod Beck (SFS). 3-2, 3.47. 21 Sv.
Rheal Cormier (NYY). 0-2, 6.03. 11 H.
Eric Gagne (BRK). 1-1, 2.92. 19 Sv.
Ken Howell (SFS). 4-1, 1.72. 1 Sv, 4 H.
Michael Jackson (HOM). 1-4, 4.13. 1 Sv, 10 H.
Brad Kilby (PHI). 1-2, 4.39. 2 Sv, 10 H.
Craig Kimbrel (KCM). 2-1, 1.14. 2 Sv, 11 H.
Josh Lindblom (HOM). 4-2, 3.45. 20 Sv.
Rob Murphy (IND). 1-3, 3.75. 1 Sv, 11 H.
Robb Nen (NYG). 3-2, 1.95. 9 Sv, 6 H.
Ron Robinson (SFS). 1-0, 1.64. 3 Sv, 3 H.
BJ Ryan (OTT). 1-2, 4.15. 1 Sv, 10 H.
Harley Young (BBB). 1-0, 1.23. 3 Sv, 5 H.

#Injury Report

Portland lost half of their backstop platoon as AJ Pierzynski will be out for close to a month. News was worse for Ottawa, as SP Bob Moose is out for close to a year.

Houston’s Casey Stengel and Kansas City’s Lou Brock are awaiting diagnosis on their current injuries.

Baltimore’s Bobby Wallace, Detroit’s Billy Hoeft, and the Black Yankees’ Dave Righetti should all begin rehab assignments this week.

#The All Star Candidates

We’ll look at these by position, mixing the two leagues for the time being.

For each position, we’ve included as many players as it takes to have at least 3-4 candidates from each league, highlighting some pretty severe disparities in talent between the AL and the NL.

If players don’t qualify for the batting stats, their playing time is noted, as are some other potentially influencing factors. This indicates a leader at that position among the players listed (but not necessarily overall).

Each league can only select 32 players for the All Star Game itself (usually 20 or 21 position players and 11 or 12 pitchers), so quite a few of the players listed here will be left on the outside looking in.

#C

The NL dominates here, with 3 catchers with an OPS over 1.000. That means some worthy candidates–most notably NYG’s Buster Posey –are likely to miss out.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Josh GibsonHOM / NL1.2295.1 WAR; 67 RBI3.1 FRM
Gary CarterOTT /NL1.07328 HR47.1 RTO%
Mike PiazzaBRK / NL1.04229 HR; 65 RBI4.87 CERA
Ed BaileyDET / AL.97257 G/216 PA; 43.6 RTO%
Jim PagliaroniBBB / NL.92561 G/231 PA
Mickey CochraneSFS / AL.91710 SB; 4.39 CERA
Ted SimmonsKCM / NL.90063 G/256 PA; 4.15 CERA
Buster PoseyNYG / NL.8703.8 FRM
Joe MauerPOR / AL.85614 SB
Curt BlefaryBAL /AL.826
Carlton FiskCAG / AL.80067 G/254 PA; 11 SB
FRM = Framing Runs | RTO% = Runners Thrown Out | CERA = Catcher ERA

The other stalwart defensive catchers–Miami‘s Iván Rodríguez and Indianapolis’ Johnny Bench–just haven’t hit enough, although a late surge by Bench has moved him up these lists.

I don’t think there is any question in the NL, where it’s Gibson, Carter, and Piazza. Cochrane and Mauer should be in for the AL, with a question of whether you go with Bailey’s bat in more limited appearances or Blefary. Should the NL decide to carry 4 backstops, the choice between Pagliaroni and Simmons (and, perhaps, Posey) is close.

Gibson and Cochrane should be the starters.

#1B

The AL has a slight edge here, but there’s a lot of talent throughout.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Lou GehrigNYY / AL1.05728 HR; 21 2B; 65 RBI.995 Fldg
Will ClarkNYG / NL1.006
Frank ThomasCAG / AL1.004
Hank GreenbergDET / AL.99126 HR.998 Fldg; 3.1 ZR
Mike EpsteinHOM / NL.965
Anthony RizzoHOD / NL.964
Lance BerkmanCLE / AL.957
Jim ThomeMCG / AL.92728 HR; 64 RBI
Jeff BagwellHOU / NL.92366 RBI.995 Fldg
Boog PowellKCM / NL.920.995 Fldg; 9.23 RF; 2.9 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Gehrig and Clark are almost certainly the starters, and the AL will likely take Thomas and Greenberg as well. In the NL, it gets a little trickier, as Powell (along with Greenberg) is one of the better 1B defensively. Epstein’s offense will carry him, but after that my guess is Rizzo gets the selection (but cannot participate via injury), and is replaced by Powell, with Bagwell having a legitimate complaint.

#2B

The NL is ridiculously stacked in terms of offensive-minded 2B.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Joe MorganIND / NL1.08847 G/199 PA
Roberto AlomarOTT/ NL1.00821 2B; 18 HR; 64 RBI; 31 SB; 3.5 WAR
Ryne SandbergHOD / NL.99528 HR; 60 RBI; 2.9 WAR.997 Fldg; 5.00 RF
Jackie RobinsonBRK / NL.938
Rogers HornsbyPOR / AL.91953 G/234 PA
Charlie GehringerDET / AL.87657 G/225 PA; .989 Fldg; 5.09 RF
Eddie CollinsCAG / AL.85036 SB
Bobby GrichLAA / AL.84515 HR
Craig BiggioHOU / NL.841
Chase UtleyPHI / NL.7814.92 RF; 9.3 ZR
Cookie RojasMCG / AL.76627 2B.987 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Joe Morgan is included just for interest–he missed too much time to injury to warrant serious consideration. Detroit’s Charlie Gehringer, on the other hand, probably makes the cut, despite starting the season in the minors.

In the NL, it’s pretty clear: Alomar, Sandberg, and Robinson, with the starter being decided between Sandberg and Alomar over the next week. The AL is trickier, but I think it ends up going according to form: Eddie Collins to start, with Gehringer and Hornsby behind him.

#SS

It’s pretty impressive there are this many shortstops that can hit, and Ernie Banks‘ production is incredible.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Ernie BanksHOD/ NL.97830 HR; 71 RBI
Cal Ripken, Jr.BAL / AL.96739 G/140 PA; .993 Fldg; 4.90 RF
Carlos CorreaHOU/ NL.92918 2B; 2.8 WAR
Arky VaughanCLE / AL.88719 2B; 2.4 WAR6.3 ZR
Álex RodríguezOTT / NL.88523 HR
Robin YountMCG / AL.84515 HR5.8 ZR
Jim FregosiPOR / AL.793
Dick LundySFS / AL.7837 3B; 2.1 WAR; 33 SB
Derek JeterNYY / AL.762
Dobie MooreMEM / AL.75022 SB.983 Fldg
Ozzie SmithKCM / NL.67219 2B; 25 SB.994 Fldg; 6.3 ZR
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Ripken, Jr. is really not a serious contender, but he has been impressive in the 40 G’s he’s played. That gives us Banks, Correa, and Rodríguez in the NL and Vaughan, Yount, and either Fregosi or Lundy in the AL.

Smith is included because of his superlative defense, but doesn’t probably make the cut.

This is an interesting position: Vaughan and Rodríguez changed teams in the off season, and Correa’s performance has been a bit of a shock.

#3B

The top 5 are locks, beyond that, it gets much trickier, especially in the NL.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Albert PujolsKCM / NL1.04632 2B; 60 RBI; 2.8 WAR
Ron CeyBRK / NL.9672.4 WAR.976 Fldg; 3.3 ZR
Gary SheffieldMCG/ AL.92922 HR; 55 RBI; 15 SB
Evan LongoriaCLE / AL.9262.2 ZR
Mike SchmidtNYY / AL.92623 HR; 55 RBI2.59 RF
Scott RolenPHI / NL.9222.1 WAR.974 Fldg; 2.7 ZR
Ron SantoHOD /NL.90652 G/192 PA
Eddie MathewsBBB / NL.90424 HR.978 Fldg; 2.66 RF
Wade BoggsMEM / AL.89626 2B
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

After Pujols and Cey, it’s hard in the NL. Matthews and Rolen edge ahead of Santo due to defense and Santo’s relative low usage, but picking between the two of them is very challenging, to the point the NL may go with 4 players at the hot corner.

#OF

All of the OF spots are a bit combined in the end, but we’re keeping them separate for the sake of comparison.

#LF

When Detroit’s Ty Cobb plays the OF, he plays here as well, making the AL selections pretty simple.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Babe RuthNYY / AL1.20140 HR; 90 RBI; 5.0 WAR.988 Fldg; 5.1 ZR
Ted WilliamsMEM / AL1.06323 2B; 65 RBI
Frank RobinsonBAL / AL1.03524 HR; 64 RBI; 2.3 WAR1.000 Fldg
Adam DunnIND / NL.90624 HR.989 Fldg; 3.41 RF
Roy WhiteBRK / NL.866
Oscar GambleDET / AL.852
Rickey HendersonSFS / AL.8402.8 WAR; 60 SB7.2 ZR
Tim RainesOTT / NL.7737 3B; 53 SB
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

So, Ruth, Williams, and Robinson are in, and perhaps Henderson’s 60+ SB warrant a spot. In the NL, it’s more challenging. Dunn seems to be a lock, and White is a bit of a sentimental choice. It may be just those 2 from this group.

#CF

Tris Speaker, as despicable of a human being as he is, is the best in the AL right now, especially considering the defensive contribution. Over in the NL, Willie Mays probably edges Oscar Charleston as the starter.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Rick MondayOTT /NL1.17241 G/136 PA
Tris SpeakerCLE / AL1.08831 2B; 4.0 WAR2.68 RF; 5.1 ZR; 6 Kills
Turkey StearnesSFS / AL1.0657 3B; 24 HR
Eric DavisNYY / AL1.05826 SB41 G/188 PA; 1.000 Fldg
Julio RodríguezMCG / AL1.05239 G/177 PA
Oscar CharlestonIND / NL1.0279 3B; 60 RBI; 24 SB
Willie MaysNYG / NL.97731 HR; 62 RBI; 2.9 WAR.990 Fldg; 2.70 RF; 7.7 ZR
Mike TroutLAA / AL.96524 2B; 2.8 WAR; 21 SB1.000 Fldg
Carlos BeltránOTT / NL.91663 RBI; 21 SB
Alejandro OmsMCG / AL.8835 3B6.3 ZR
Curtis GrandersonBBB / NL.87626 HR3.01 RF
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Monday, Davis, and Rodríguez aren’t really in contention, but their performances in limited action have been pretty spectacular.

Speaker, Stearnes, and Trout are pretty much locks in the AL, with Oms being a hard luck case. Beltrán deserves the spot behind Mays and Charleston.

#RF

A deep, deep group, probably 4 deep in each league.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
José CansecoMCG / AL1.10936 HR
Larry WalkerOTT / NL1.09036 HR; 85 RBI; 22.4 WAR3.89 RF
Reggie JacksonSFS / AL1.02763 RBI; 2.8 WAR; 24 SB
Tony GwynnHOU / NL1.0266 3B; 24 2B; 2.8 WAR
Aaron JudgePHI / NL.994.992 Fldg
Mickey MantleNYY / AL.99330 HR; 76 RBI
Joe JacksonCAG /AL.98639 2B; 27 SB
Stan MusialKCM / NL.96437 2B5.5 ZR
Johnny CallisonNYG / NL.945.993 Fldg
Mookie BettsMEM / AL.86524 2B1.000 Fldg
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Canseco, Mantle, and the 2 Jacksons seem locks in the AL, with Walker, Gwynn, and Judge in the NL. It’s possible Musial misses the cut, as ridiculous as that sounds.

#DH

The pressure here is immense, given the competition for the other OF spots.

NameTm / LgOPSReg StatsOther
Ty CobbDET / AL1.35037 2B; 8 3B; 26 HR; 73 RBI; 5.8 WAR; 31 SB
Kal DanielsLAA / AL1.02321 2B; 2.3 WAR; 30 SB
Manny RamírezMEM / AL.98656 G/224 PA
Ryan BraunMCG/ AL.98231 HR
Willie StargellHOM / NL.98027 HR
Gavvy CravathBAL / AL.92622 2B; 69 RBI
Benny KauffNYG / NL.909
Fldg = Fielding % | RF = Range Factor | ZR = Zone Rating

Cobb is, of course, a lock, and it would be hard to keep Daniels off the roster. Beyond that, though, it gets difficult to justify a pure DH, although Braun, Stargell, and Cravath all have decent arguments.

#P

Pitching is, of course, a constant crapshoot, and a lot could change in the outings this week.

All pitchers are sorted by ERA.

#SP

This list has everyone with an ERA under 4.00 or 10 or more wins.

NameTm / LgW-L; ERAReg StatsOther
Toad RamseyHOU / NL11-4, 2.77152 K; 0.89 WHIP; 5.2 WAR; 2.80 FIP71% QS; 5 CG; 2 SHO; 2.34 SIERA; 1.7 WPA
Doc GoodenLAA / AL7-5, 3.17
Hardie HendersonPHI/ NL9-6, 3.18
Smokey Joe WilliamsBRK / NL7-7, 3.413.4 WAR
Ed WalshCAG / AL6-3, 3.411.06 WHIP
Eddie PlankSFS / AL11-3, 3.54
Roger ClemensHOU / NL9-4, 3.7165% QS
Lefty GroveSFS / AL10-4, 3.71132 K4 CG; 3 SHO; 2.87 SIERA
Johnny CuetoIND / NL8-4, 3.7567% QS
Rube FosterIND / NL6-4, 3.80
Ron GuidryNYY / AL8-4, 3.86143 K2.58 SIERA
Orel HershiserBRK / NL10-4, 3.87
Brett AndersonLAA / AL7-2, 3.911.06 WHIP
Andy PettitteNYY / AL9-5, 4.05
Bump HadleySFS / AL11-4, 4.213.50 FIP
Luis PadrónIND / NL11-2, 4.213.3 WA; 3.57 FIP
Frank CastilloKCM / NL10-1, 4.223 CG; 2 SHO
José MéndezMCG / AL6-4, 4.45
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added

Right now, I would guess the starting matchup is Toad Ramsey for the NL and Eddie Plank for the AL.

Beyond that, in the AL, I see Gooden, Walsh, and Grove as easy picks. Guidry is likely in as well, leaving Anderson and Hadley on the bubble.

The NL is much harder to figure out. Henderson, Hershiser, Padrón, and Castillo feel like they deserve selections, with Williams having a very strong case as well. That would leave some excellent performances–Clemens and Cueto especially–on the outside looking in.

#Swingmen / Long Relivers

These are players who are either swing starters or have seen more innings than the finishers below. As is often the case, there are a few folks here who, for whatever the reason, took a while to be inserted into the rotation.

NameTm / LgW-L; ERAReg StatsOther
A. Rube FosterKCM/ NL5-1, 2.300.98 WHIP7 GS; 90 IP; 86% QS; 2 SHO; 1.0 WPA
Jim WhitneyBBB / NL4-2, 3.261 Sv; 2 H; 1.03 WHIP11 GS; 94 IP; 73% QS; 1.9 WPA
Tom BrewerSFS / AL0-1, 2.331 Sv; 2 H2 GS; 27 IP
Fernando ValenzuelaBRK / NL5-0, 2.371 Sv; 4 H; 0.96 WHIP1 GS; 60 IP; 1.0 WPA
Rheal CormierNYY / AL0-2, 6.0311 H
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added

Foster and Valenzuela seem clear selections, with Brewer and Cormier missing the cut and Whitney being on the bubble.

#Closers & Setups

20 IP Minimum, with a possible exception for Brian Wilson of the New York Gothams.

NameTm / LgW-L; ERAReg StatsOther
Brian WilsonNYG/ NL1-0, 1.0811 Sv17 IP
Craig KimbrelKCM / NL2-1, 1.142 Sv; 11 H; 0.89 WHIP15 SD; 5.6 IRS%; 2.90 SIERA; 2.0 WPA
Harley YoungBBB / NL1-0, 1.233 Sv; 5 H
Ron RobinsonSFS / AL1-0, 1.643 Sv; 3 H
Ken HowellSFS / AL4-1, 1.721 Sv; 4 H
Robb NenNYG / NL3-2, 1.959 Sv; 6 H
Eddie GuardadoKCM / NL2-1, 2.081 Sv; 5 H2.92 SIERA
Tug McGrawHOU / NL3-3, 2.167 Sv
Ross ReynoldsLAA / AL2-0, 2.191 Sv; 1 H
Goose GossageNYY / AL2-3, 2.329 Sv; 8 H.90 Sv%
Lee SmithHOD / NL4-1, 2.735 Sv; 6 H; 0.73 WHIP
Eric GagneBRK / NL1-1, 2.9219 Sv17 SD
Justin HampsonBAL / AL0-0, 3.007 H; 0.95 WHIP
Terry AdamsCLE / AL1-2, 3.1815 Sv; 2 H.94 Sv%
Josh LindblomHOM / NL4-2, 3.4520 Sv.95 Sv%; 16 SD; 1.3 WPA
Rod BeckSFS / AL3-2, 3.4721 Sv; 0.73 WHIP15 SD
Rob MurphyIND / NL1-3, 3.751 Sv; 11 H
Michael JacksonHOM / NL1-4, 4.131 Sv; 10 H
BJ RyanOTT / NL1-2, 4.151 Sv; 10 H
Brad KilbyPHI / NL1-2, 4.392 Sv; 10 H2.73 SIERA
Rob DibbleIND / NL2-2, 5.2516 Sv
Jeff PfefferKCM / NL1-3, 5.6116 Sv
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching | QS = Quality Starts | SIERA = Skill Interactive ERA | WPA = Win Probability Added

A difficult set of choices for sure. Of the true closers, Gagne, Lindblom, and Beck seem locks, with Kimbrel, Young, Howell, Nen, McGraw, Gossage, and Smith deserving nods as well.

That would give the NL 7 selections, likely keeping Wilson from making the team. It would also give the AL only 3, opening the door for Adams and even Reynolds or Hampson.

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