▌ State of the Franchise

The first Angels preview said the pitching should be solid, especially up front behind Doc Gooden and Gerrit Cole.

And, for a year, it was correct. But since then, their paths — and the fortunes of the franchise — have diverged. Gooden made the AL All-Star team at 23, threw 194 innings and struck out 172, and is on the fringes of the truly dominant starters in the league. That’s where Cole was in 2000, but last season, Cole went 7-15 with a 6.36 ERA and gave up 53 home runs in 166 innings. That’s … not good.

The offense seems decent enough — 2 genuine young stars (Mike Trout and Kal Daniels combined for 79 home runs, 81 doubles, and 100 stolen bases) and now, perhaps 3 with the arrival of Freddie Freeman (333/422/677 over 30 games). There are some questions here — catching has always been an issue, and the MI has never truly settled (even less so since the organization traded away Bobby Grich).

All of that sounds OK, but Los Angeles has declared they are actively displeased with OK, and spent the winter making some extreme changes. The net of it all is their 2 best starters — Tom Seaver and Brett Anderson — are gone, replaced by José Rijo and prayer, the lineup now sports Dobie Moore at SS and Billy Herman at 2B (Moore via trade, Herman via the Rule V draft), Richie Hebner floating around the corner IF with the departure of Doug Rader, and Dwight Evans as the 4th OF, and the Angels accumulated some MiL talent and — most importantly — a 1st round pick.

The window is 2004 and nobody is pretending otherwise. What 2002 is for is finding out which of these arms is real.

▌ 2001 Revisited

We asked for playoff contention and got 74-88, 3rd in the Cum Posey Division, 29 games out.

The forecast split cleanly down the middle. Everything it wanted from the bats happened: Trout became the superstar the best case demanded, taking the organizational MVP and finishing 3rd for the Mel Trench Award; Carlos Delgado held off age at 32 and led the club with 44 homers.

Everything it wanted from the arms went the other way. The best case named 6 pitchers who might make good on immense potential — Gooden, Elmer Smith, Chuck Finley, Nolan Ryan, Seaver, Sid Fernandez — (since released) and only Gooden did. Cole, the 2000 ace, was the collapse. Seaver was thoroughly meh and Pud Galvin — while certainly useful in a rubber-armed way — was effectively ordinary across 20 starts.

So the worst case, which predicted a hot mess on the mound and a Doug Rader reversion, was the more accurate take. Rader went from borderline MVP candidate to a pedestrian third baseman and was traded in March.

The other thing 2001 taught was about the bottom of the lineup. Ichiro Suzuki won a Gold Glove, played 140 games, and walked 7 times all year on his way to a .688 OPS and −1.2 WAR. Steve Garvey walked 8 times in 405 plate appearances. 1,400 PA, 15 walks. That’s no way to run a railroad.

▌ Key Changes

In: Bill Doak (FA); Dwight Evans (MEM); Richie Hebner (HOD); Billy Herman (FA); Dobie Moore (MEM); Jeff Pfeffer (KAN); José Rijo (KAN)

Out: Brett Anderson (HOD); Jay Bell (FA); Xander Bogaerts (MEM); Doug Rader (KAN); Tom Seaver (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: Dwight Evans; Jeurys Familia; Freddie Freeman; Billy Herman; Darren Holmes; Ross Reynolds

▌ Best Case for 2002

Gooden finishes the climb to undisputed ace, and 2 of the arms behind him declare themselves. Rijo struck out 154 in Kansas City, Julio Teheran struck out 90 in 82 innings, Vic Willis is 23 and full of promise, and Ross Reynolds allowed exactly 1 home run (in the homer-happy context of the 2001 WBL) all season out of the pen. And the list of names above still waits: Finley, Ryan and Elmer Smith all open the year at Las Vegas.

And then the offense settles into sustained delivery: Freeman hits the way he did in September, Richie Hebner brings the 284/373/594 he posted for the House of David to third base, Moore settles shortstop at 21, and Gene Tenace — who walked 32 times in 155 plate appearances at Birmingham before the trade — gives the lineup an on-base bat.

The wins may not follow, and that’s allowed. 2002 is about answers.

▌ Worst Case for 2002

Nobody separates. The pool stays a pool, Cole’s home-run rate is just who he is now. The bullpen is the near-term version of the same problem. Francisco Rodríguez was among the worst closers in the league at 6.87, Pfeffer arrives off a 6.16, Bill Doak off a 6.37. None of that changes, and Suzuki’s bat doesn’t move, Herman doesn’t hold second base, and the lineup around Trout and Daniels looks no better than it did in 2001.

▌ Key Questions

• Does what happens in Vegas matter? Oddly, many of the keys to LA’s future open the season at AAA in Las Vegas, where Mike Witt, Nolan Ryan, Mike Scott, John Lackey, Mike Krukow and Carlos Mármol all start the season. The org needs 2 or 3 of that group to separate, and it has deliberately arranged the year to find out — promote for clarity, not for reward.
• Is the trust in the Doc warranted? The sharpest question of the Angels’ winter is why they sold Brett Anderson (11-6 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 189 innings and won the organizational Pitcher of the Year) and kept Gooden (11-11 with a 4.36, a 1.29 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 194). Those are essentially the same season, and the fanbase will be keeping close tabs on how Anderson fares for the House of David.
• Can anybody in the bottom half reach base? Every bat the org brought in — Hebner, Tenace, Moore, even Eddie Joost — gets on base.

▌ Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

The bullpen is unsettled, most likely a committee approach until someone takes hold of the closer role.

▌ Talent Ratings

▌ Best In The Minors

Others: P John Lackey, P Luke Walker, P Mike Witt, 3B Pedro Álvarez.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Dwight Evans (26).

A year ago this list ran 10 deep and 8 of the 10 were pitchers, led by Elmer Smith at 19th in all of baseball. Smith is 26 and at Triple-A now, trying to figure out how to harness his genuine 2-way potential. Seaver graduated and was flipped to Memphis; Reynolds graduated into the bullpen and made the AL Rookie Team; Randy Tate, Marcus Semien, Esteban Loaiza and Brandon Nimmo all fell off the board.

What tops it now is a bat — 19-year-old Rod Carew, last year’s 1st-round pick, a second baseman who is unlikely to stay one. Babe Herman (no relation to Billy) and Steve Henderson supply corner power behind him, and Mármol is the lone arm.

The list understates the system, though, because the interesting part isn’t ranked. Las Vegas is carrying most of the pitching depth in the organization plus Pedro Álvarez, the organizational Minor League Player of the Year, and Jack Hannifin, who hit 63 home runs there and turns 28 this year.

▌ Superlatives

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.