Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Dustin McGowan

Year III Season Preview: Brooklyn Royal Giants

State of the Franchise

team logo

Brooklyn won the whole thing, in a year where nobody saw them coming. But they’re Brooklyn — nobody ever does. The Royal Giants were a surprise division winner and a bigger surprise in October, running through the bracket and then handling the heavily favored San Francisco Sea Lions in the Whirled Series. From a .500 team in 2000 to a 99-63 champion.

And then … they spent the winter trading 2 of the key pieces of the championship run.

Brooklyn is New York’s third team, forever looked down on by the Yankees and the Gothams, and its edge seems to be first, to feel no sentiment, and, second, to care for the clubhouse. A ring didn’t change that. Within months of the parade the champions dealt Don Drysdale and John Briggs, the former for pouting when he was passed over to start the opening game of the Whirled Series and the latter because the Royal Giants believe they could get more value in return.

Brooklyn is convinced their offense will survive the passing of the home-run-friendly era, with Ron Cey at third, Jackie Robinson and Roy White as the heart and soul of the club, Mike Piazza behind the plate, and Smokey Joe Williams and Orel Hershiser at the front of the rotation.

The job now isn’t to defend a title. It’s to turn a surprise into a dynasty.

2001 Revisited

Our preview a year ago called this roster very middle of the road, penciled in a modest playoff hunt, and hung the whole thing on 2 names: Drysdale, the supposed lone dependable starter, and Briggs, the outfielder we swore would keep setting the world on fire.

Not wrong. Also not the story.

Cey slugged 47 homers with a 291/381/656 line and took the club MVP. Piazza finally arrived, mashing 48. Dan Brouthers settled first base with a .950 OPS. And the arms the org supposedly couldn’t trust carried it: Hershiser went 19-5, a converted Fernando Valenzuela 14-5, and Eric Gagné slammed the door 39 times. Williams was the best of them and had the least to show for it — a 7-WAR performance stuck with a 12-13 record.

Then the champions got to work dismantling the edges of their own title team. Drysdale — who threw a public fit about ceding the top of the rotation spot to Hershiser — went to Memphis with Red Ruffing (signed as a FA the previous week) in a package essentially for Mookie Betts, giving Brooklyn the marquee OF they had always lacked. Briggs, exactly the doubted-kid-makes-good story this fanbase adores, followed him to Memphis a few weeks later, bringing back a first-round pick and a pair of prospects.

Key Changes

In: Mookie Betts (MEM); Billy Bryan (MEM); Joe Smith (FA)
Out: John Briggs (MEM); Don Drysdale (MEM)

Opening Day Rookies: None

Best Case for 2002

The core doesn’t regress and the luck evens out. Cey, Piazza, Robinson, and Brouthers are all in their primes. Williams gets the record his WAR deserves, Hershiser is Hershiser, and Gagné closes. Behind the top 2, one of the other arms holds up well enough to carry them into October again. And, if someone does go down, the best farm system in baseball — it isn’t close — starts feeding the big club: for example, Ed Delahanty or Al Simmons arriving to turn the outfield into an embarrassment of riches. All of that, and Brooklyn goes back-to-back, and the surprise becomes a dynasty.

Worst Case for 2002

The pitching falls short. Behind Williams and Hershiser, Valenzuela regresses, Dick Redding fails to develop, and the rest turn out to be merely average at best. The bullpen — excellent in 2001 — collapses, leaving no reliable bridge to Gagné. Pedro Guerrero keeps flailing, and the lineup that looked fearsome in a juiced year looks ordinary in a normal one. All of that, and the champion drifts back toward the .500 club it was in 2000, relegated to be a curious footnote of WBL history.

Oh yeah, and Drysdale wins the Brock Rutherford Award in the AL.

Key Questions

  • Can the rotation hold? Yeah, Brooklyn had excess pitching. But trading Drysdale is a massive bet on … well, who exactly? Valenzuela? Redding? Ralph Branca? Nap Rucker? You can’t say you would prefer any of them over Drysdale without giggling. The answer may be young lefty Sandy Koufax, but he’s likely a bullpen arm this season as he works on building up the endurance to handle a starter’s load.
  • Can a champion still be the underdog? What happens when Brooklyn wins, again? It sort of breaks reality, yes?
  • How much of Duke Snider is real? Center field is now his with Briggs’ departure. Snider led the club with 51 homers — and was worth 0.2 WAR doing it, a .259 average and a .295 on-base underneath the power. Brooklyn traded the productive outfielder in Briggs and kept the other one in center, betting his ceiling was higher. It’s not clear.
  • Where does the Whirled Series MVP play? Lost in Piazza’s October is the man who won the round that mattered most: Ray Dandridge, a 22-year-old infielder who caught fire in the Series and has no position to call his own. Cey owns third, Robinson owns second, and Vern Stephens sparkled since being brought in at SS. Dandridge takes his reps everywhere, but at some point will force some hard questions.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CPiazza A · Bryan
1BBrouthers B
2BRobinson A
SSStephens D
3BCey S
LFWhite C
CFSnider C
RFBetts C
DHBecker C · Guerrero F
SPWilliams A · Hershiser B · Valenzuela A · Redding · Leonard · Dreifort
RPGagné S (CL) · Forster A · Koufax C · Knauss D · Hildenberger B (IL)

A core of genuine stars — Cey, Piazza, Robinson, Williams, Valenzuela — deep enough to win a title and young enough to win several.

The bullpen is where the grid hides something. Gagné is an S-tier closer and Terry Forster an A-tier setup man, but the bridge to them leans hard left, and Trevor Hildenberger — the one right-handed answer with a real track — opens the year on the IL. Until he’s back, it’s all lefties all the time for Brooklyn.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerC Mike Piazza1B Justin Smoak; 1B Jim Gentile
Batting Eye3B Ron Cey1B Justin Smoak
Contact1B Dan BrouthersRF Matty Alou
Running SpeedRF Mookie BettsSS Sonny Jackson
Base StealingRF Beals Becker; 1B Dan Brouthers2B Davey Lopes; RF Chicken Wolf
IF Defense2B Jackie RobinsonSS Tim Foli
OF DefenseRF Mookie BettsRF Chicken Wolf
StuffRP Eric GagnéSP Jim Bunning; SP Allen Russell
ControlSP Smokey Joe WilliamsSP Jordan Zimmermann
VelocityRP Eric GagnéRP Steve Chitren

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (1)212BEd Delahanty
2 (13)25RFChicken Wolf
3 (17)23SPWalker Buehler
4 (24)22SPJim Kaat
5 (25)21CFAl Simmons
6 (34)22SPEustace Newton
7 (47)23RFDon Mueller
8 (56)25SPDustin McGowan
9 (79)26RFGeorge Selkirk

Others: OF Brett Butler, OF Jay Johnstone, P Victor González, P Odalis Pérez.

The best farm system in baseball, and it isn’t close — 9 ranked names headed by Ed Delahanty, the No. 1 prospect in the sport, a 21-year-old second baseman with the small problem that Robinson already owns the position. He is taking reps in left field.

A year ago this list graduated Smokey Joe Williams and Valenzuela straight into a championship rotation, and produced Briggs at #5. What remains is an arms-and-outfielders wave — Al Simmons, Jim Kaat, Walker Buehler — pressing up from below.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeBurleigh Grimes, 36Odalis Pérez, 20
HeightLuke Farrell, 6’6″Candy Jim Taylor, 5’5″
OPSJim Gentile, 1.053 (AAA)Rollie Hemsley, 0.550 (A)
HRDuke Snider, 51Rollie Hemsley, 1 (A)
SBJackie Robinson, 53
WAR (bat)Ron Cey, 5.0Pedro Guerrero, -1.1
WOrel Hershiser, 19
SVEric Gagné, 39
ERAArt H Johnson, 3.20 (AA)Jordan Zimmermann, 5.80 (AAA)
WAR (pit)Smokey Joe Williams, 7.1Dazzy Vance, -0.1 (A)

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year II Season Preview: Brooklyn Royal Giants

Expectations

Improvement, meaning again being in the playoff hunt at the end, but perhaps it being far less of a longshot/surprise.

Best Case

The juggling of the pitching staff works perfectly, with Smokey Joe Williams and Watty Clark Orel Hershiser joining Don Drysedale and Frank Knauss to provide a dependable, top of the league rotation helped by a continually improving Sandy Koufax. This implies that Eric Gagne‘s conversion to closer goes well.

The offense finds its soul, helped by the acquisition of Pedro Guerrero.

Worst Case

Knauss, Clark, and Koufax regress and Williams doesn’t step up, leaving only Drysedale as a dependable starter and the offense continues to just meander along without any real oomph. The acquisition of Guerrero fails to deliver.

Key Questions

  • In addition to the pitching staff changes mentioned above, the rest of the roster is very much in flux.
  • Can John Briggs continue to set the world on fire?
  • Will Mike Piazza finally take hold of the starting C role?

Trade Bait

Unsure? There is a bit of a logjam in the OF right now, maybe that could be solved.

Instead, the Royal Giants doubled down on the logjam, adding Guerrero to the mix. It’s unlikely Clark’s value is ever higher than it is right now, so it’s not a bad moment to make the move.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CPiazzaBertell
1BRobinson
2BIsbell
3BCey
SSSmithDandridgeWills
LF/
RF
Becker
Guerrero
CFBriggs
Snider
White
Griggs
SPDrysedaleKnaussHershiser
Koufax
Williams
EndGagne
Hildenberger
Dreifort
Von Ohlen
RPForster
Grimes
Mateo
Valenzuela
New Addition | Injured

Very middle of the road imo. There is a lot of uncertainty on the mound, with a bunch of new faces and others whose ability to replicate their success from last season remains firmly in doubt.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerOF Duke Snider1B Jim Gentile
Batting EyeOF John BriggsC Jim French
ContactOF Pedro Guerrero1B Dan Brouthers
Running SpeedSS Maury WillsSS Sonny Jackson
Base Stealing2B Frank Isbell2B Davey Lopes
IF DefenseIF Jackie Robinson1B Eric Karros
OF DefenseOF Roy WhiteOF Chicken Wolf
StuffSP Sandy KoufaxRP Lefty Thomas
ControlCL Eric GagneRP Trevor Hildenberger
VelocityCL Eric GagneSP Walker Buehler

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (3)202BEd Delahanty
2 (5)23PSmokey Joe Williams
3 (15)21PDoc Newton
4 (51)22PWalker Buehler
5 (84)21OFJohn Briggs
6 (108)22PDazzy Vance
7 (125)24OFTerry Moore
8 (147)24PFernando Valenzuela
9 (162)24PDustin McGowan
10 (165)20OFAl Simmons
Others: RP Jesús Colome, P Chris Short.

Williams, Briggs, and Valenzuela all break camp with the WBL team. Given the scarcity of offense in the system, both Delahanty and Simmons may see time this season.

MostLeast
Age2B Julio Franco, 39P Odalis Pérez, 19
P Hilly Flitcroft
HeightP Don Drysedale, 6’6″
P Tommy Hanson, 6’6″
P Bobby Shantz, 5’6″
OPS1B Justin Smoak, 1.101 (—)SS César Izturis, .527 (AAA/AA)
HR1B Justin Smoak, 64 (—)SS César Izturis, 0 (AAA/AA)
OF Art Griggs, 0 (WBL/AAA)
SBOF Beals Becker, 49 (WBL)
WAR1B Jim Gentile, 5.0 (—)SS Germany Smith, -1.0 (WBL/AAA)
WJosh Outman, 14 (—)
Jordan Zimmerman, 14 (AAA)
Tom Phoebus, 2 (—)
Dick Redding, 2 (WBL/AAA)
SVRed Evans, 23 (—)
ERADarren Dreifort, 2.03 (WBL/AAA)Tom Sullivan, 8.09 (—)
WARBobby Shantz, 5.9 (—)Tom Sullivan, -2.0 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

TWIWBL 56.16: Spring Training Notes – Brooklyn Royal Giants

Spring Training Questions

A couple spots in the bullpen are open, but most of the attention will be on the position players, where in addition to the bench, starting roles at C and 1B are unsettled.

Ed Delahanty and Al Simmons (Brooklyn’s first and second round draft picks) are probably a year away, but either could make a strong push in Spring Training.

Injuries

Trevor Hildenberger is likely to miss the start of the season with a back injury, opening up another spot in the Royal Giants’ bullpen and SS Germany Smith–the early favorite to start at that position–will be out until very close to opening day with a broken bone in his foot.

First Cuts

Both Doc Newton and Tom Sullivan were longshots to make the team, and neither showed enough to stay in camp past the first round of reassignments; nor did Ted Blankenship, Lew Krausse Jr., Nap Rucker, or Dustin McGowan. Dave Van Ohlen has pitched as poorly as the rest of them, but being an established WBL arm has its privileges.

Likewise, Al López and Mike Piazza have both struggled, but it’s Al Todd and Jeff Torborg who are reassigned. The axe also fell for Tommy Everidge, Marco Hernández, Hank Majeski, and Ken McMullen. These moves preserve spots for Ray Dandridge and Ed Delahanty, despite their mighty struggles so far.

The OF remains an incredibly tangled puzzle. Assumed starters Duke Snider and Beals Becker have combined for only 2 hits, while Matt Holliday, Ron Fairly, George Selkirk, and Jermaine Dye–all considered relative long shots to make the team–are pounding the ball with OPS’ over 1.000. Even Morrie Arnovich and Raúl Mondesi, who have not hit well, remain in camp, largely based on their performances in the minors last year.

Clearly, figuring out the OF spots is the major concern of the next week or so for Brooklyn.

Second Cuts

Walker Buehler and Jordan Zimmerman head to minor league camp, as do Ron Fairly and Dan Brouthers. Phenom Ed Delahanty heads to minor league camp for at least a year of seasoning while only Germany Smith‘s injury keeps Tim Foli in camp. In the OF, Raúl Mondesi heads down along with veteran Jermaine Dye.

Third Cuts

Rick Aguilera, Tim Foli, George Selkirk, Davey Lopes, and, perhaps most surprisingly, Al López were all sent down.

This means that the catching duties will fall to some mixture of Mike Piazza and Duke Farrell (assuming Dick Bertell cools off at some point), and indicates that the Royal Giants are looking to play Ray Dandridge at 2B with Maury Wills earning a strong look at SS in Germany Smith‘s absence.

Final Cuts

The Royal Giants have some very hard decisions. Their first cut comes from the outfield, where 20 year old Al Simmons has hit well, but clearly needs to spend some time as a fulltime player, something he’ll be able to do at AA. Morrie Arnovich follows Simmons, clearing up some space in the OF.

Part of Duke Farrell‘s value was his ability to fill in at 3B as well; with Pedro Guerrero‘s arrival, that means a bit less. Combine that with Farrell’s struggles and Dick Bertell‘s excellent Spring, and Farrell becomes expendable, off to start the year at AAA. Some see this as a clear sign that the Royal Giants are going to go with Mike Piazza behind the plate; others insist that Bertell still has a shot to seize the starting role.

Jim Gentile is the only true 1B on the roster. And he’s posted an OPS over .800 this Spring. But roster space is scarce, and Gentile only plays 1B, so off he goes to AAA.

Trevor Hildenberger had struggled mightily before being shut down with back spasms. The Royal Giants got to 30 players by placing Hildenberger on the DL–he may be off by opening day, but a rehab stint in the minors to regain his form is needed regardless.

This is so hard at the end. Two or three more arms have to be sent down from Burleigh Grimes, Orel Hershiser, Juan Mateo, Dick Redding, Fernando Valenzuela, and Dutch Leonard. The problem is none of them have pitched badly. Leonard has struggled the most, so he’s the first, followed by young Dick Redding, who was solid last year, but gave up a lot of hits this Spring.

Germany Smith was placed on the DL.

Everybody else hit really well all Spring, making these final two choices very difficult. The Royal Giants sort of fell in love with Maury Wills and in the end, despite almost equal production, Dickie Thon‘s in ability to play other positions sends Thon to AAA. Finally, Matty Alou had a strong Spring, but it’s all just too crowded, to the veteran heads to the minors.

TWIWBL 24.2: Mid-Season Reviews – Brooklyn Royal Giants

Summary

Brooklyn sits in 2nd place in the Marvin Miller Division, only 3.5 games behind Portland, despite a general sense they’ve underperformed on the season. So, I guess that’s good?

What’s Gone Right

The pitching. Don Drysedale has been among the better starters in the league, and Frank Knauss has emerged as a quality #2 starter. Don Sutton, Dutch Leonard, and Sandy Koufax have been solid behind them with Koufax occasionally spectacular (including the only 1-hitter in the league). Add to that a back-end trio in the bullpen of Dave Von Ohlen and Trevor Hildenberger setting up Watty Clark, and the Royal Giants have everything they need on the mound.

The AAA Shuttle. The Royal Giants have been quite successful in their call-ups.

  • Orel Hershiser and Smokey Joe Williams started the year in the WBL, but struggled. Their replacements–Tommy Hanson, Knauss, and Von Ohlen–have been excellent.
  • The original duo behind the plate–Mike Piazza and Steve Yeager–were horrible. Their replacements, Al López and Duke Farrell, look OK so far.
  • Raúl Mondesí, who earned a spot on the roster out of spring training, struggled, but Jermaine Dye looks to be the real deal as his replacement.

The Running Game. Five players (Duke Snider, Beals Becker, Jackie Robinson, Davey Lopes, and Dickie Thon) have more than 10 steals each.

What’s Gone Wrong

Power. Only Snider and Ron Cey have more than 10 homeruns (although, to be fair, both Becker and Robinson have 9). Still, some more pop would be a welcome addition.

Catching. As referenced above, Piazza was especially a disappointment, as he was expected to add some power to a lineup that really needs it.

The Infield. Cey is set at 3B, and Robinson clearly has a role. But the rest has been … unsettled at best. Dan Brouthers has been miserable at 1B, and may be on his way out of town, and neither Lopes (2B) nor Thon (SS) have really convinced. Ray Dandridge has been excellent in a limited opportunity, and should be an everyday starter from here on out.

Key Storylines

The Royal Giants have managed their AAA movement very well, as detailed above. Probably the key storyline here is their ability to remain competitive while still searching for their identity.

Koufax is a bit of an enigma, and his continued development bears watching–and the thought of what he and Smokey Joe Williams could be is quite enticing.

What to do with Robinson remains a challenge: he doesn’t field well enough to play 2B a ton, and doesn’t hit well enough to play 1B.

Trading Outlook

BUYING.

OFs Dye, Hi Myers, and Matt Holliday have some value. If the right opportunity came along, some of their SP surplus could be on the trading block: Hershiser, Leonard, Knauss.

AAA Shuttle

Piazza and Yeager have both done well at AAA, and may be due for a recall if López or Farrell falter. Likewise, Hershiser has been dominant in the minors and he, along with Darren Dreifort, are ready should they be needed.

Midseason Changes

Infield changes a-plenty. Robinson becomes the everyday 1B, with Brouthers being sent to AAA (Eric Karros was recalled to backup Robinson). 2B/SS is trickier: Dandridge becomes the starter at one of those, but there’s just nobody in the system arguing for playing time. So Dandridge will start, with a bit of rotation between Thon and Lopes, if no other moves are made.

Hildenberger moves into the setup role, demoting Eric Gagne.

Awards

All Stars: Don Drysedale (P).

Pitcher of the Month: Don Drysedale (April)

Offensive MVP: Duke Snider (CF)
Pitching MVP: Don Drysedale (SP)

Down on the Farm

AAA: Queens Kings

Next to the Show: OFs Matt Holliday & Curt Flood, RP Darren Dreifort.

Prospects: P Ralph Branca (22), P Tim Stauffer (26).

Projects: There are a ton, but let’s just focus on the 24 year-olds: P Smokey Joe Williams, C Mike Piazza, OF Raúl Mondesí, OF Curt Flood, and 1B Dan Brouthers.

Suspects: Ron Perranoski (25), Jordan Zimmerman (26), IFs Todd Walker and Manny Trillo (both 33), SS Germany Smith (28).

AA: Jersey City Skeeters

Prospects: CF John Briggs (20), P Lou Marone (23), 3B Hank Majeski (23).

Projects: P Chris Short (21), P Fernando Valenzuela (23), P Dustin McGowan (23), OF Morrie Arnovich (25), C Phil Lombardi (23), SS Sonny Jackson (19).

Suspects: P Ben Hendrickson (23), 1B Kevin Maas (30), IFs Don Heffner (33) and César Izturis (27). P Johnny Ryan (22).

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