Baseball The Way It Never Was

Tag: Frank Francisco

Year III Season Preview: Baltimore Black Sox

{ The first of 20 team previews as we head into the new season! }

State of the Franchise

team logo

Two springs ago, very few saw Baltimore as a contender — and the Black Sox answered by running up the best record in the inaugural year of the WBL and winning the Whirled Series over Detroit in 7 games. Then came last year: 77-85, 4th in the Bill James Division, 13 games out and never really in contention. Through both the coronation and the collapse the org’s self-image hasn’t flinched — Baltimore believes they are merely unlucky. The assumption is that 2000 was real and 2001 was, well, not.

There’s a case, and it revolves around names you’ll be seeing for a decade: Frank Robinson is 22. Cal Ripken Jr is 23, Manny Machado 24, Bryce Harper 21. All but Ripken were part of the championship run.

2001 Revisited

We spent last spring at maximum confidence. “The best team in the league adds the best free agent,” we wrote of the Gavy Cravath signing — the biggest free-agent deal in WBL history — and declared that anything short of a second straight title would be a disappointment. To our modest credit, we named part of the way it could go wrong: the pitching reverts to mediocre, and Cravath and Dan McGann show their age.

The pitching, it reverted.

The arms were miserable — mostly because they were hurt. Ned Garvin, a Brock Rutherford Award contender before he went down, lost 10 months. Sean Marshall, unhittable in 2000, was out for close to a year. Justin Hampson came out of nowhere to make the AL All-Star team out of the bullpen and then went down for most of the second half. What was left included a game, but only slightly better than mediocre Dennis Martínez, and a revolving door for Jim Palmer, Mike Mussina, the since-departed Bill Byrd, and the since-acquired Gene Conley among others.

The offense did well enough: Robinson turned in another excellent season (308/394/674, a team-best 48 homers and 114 RBI). Cravath’s bat justified the checkbook — 44 homers, 111 RBI, Ripken emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order masher at shortstop: 32 homers, a Silver Slugger, runner-up for Rookie of the Year, and Harper — the youngest of the bunch — chipped in with a quiet (!) 41-homer season. And the gloves showed up — Gold Gloves for Paul Blair in center and Miller Huggins at second (Huggins is especially impressive, as he wasn’t anointed the full time 2B until well into the season).

Bottom line: the bats and the leather were championship-grade; the pitching was a rumor.

Key Changes

In: Curt Flood (BBB)
Out: Bill Byrd (BBB); Asdrúbal Cabrera (BBB)

Opening Day Rookies: Curt Flood; Jeff Montgomery; Emil Yde

Best Case for 2002

Health, mostly. Garvin comes back as the arm he was, one of Palmer or Martínez finally pitches to the level the advanced numbers indicate possible, and for once Baltimore fields something resembling a front of a rotation instead of a rehab ward. The young bats each take the half-step their ages promise; the Gold-Gloves up the middle keep turning balls in play into outs; and a club that was never really a 77-win team — just a team with a 77-win record — climbs back into the division race.

Worst Case for 2002

The curse holds.

The arms keep breaking, nobody announces themselves as an ace, either through performance or organizational choice, and both Cravath at 37 and McGann at 38 start acting their age. This last is a little less of a cliff — there is some talent behind them, but it has to step up (looking at you, Eddie Murray). 77 wins becomes 74, in the flattest, least-tradeable way possible.

Key Questions

  • Is there a No. 1 starter — and would they trust one if there were? Baltimore has ace-grade arms — Garvin, especially, but the org can’t bring itself to commit: Palmer’s plain ERAs get him doubted every year even as the context says he’s a real front-of-rotation starter, and the winter’s reclamation flier, Warren Spahn (acquired under the assumption the proverbial change of scenery will unlock his talent, despite him being thoroughly disastrous in every opportunity over 2 years) opens the year at Triple-A. Mussina? Also AAA. You can’t run a rotation on flavor-of-the-month forever.
  • Who covers the middle infield? Behind Ripken and Huggins there is Cliff Pennington and a prayer with Bobby Wallace being sent to Detroit at last season’s deadline. Baltimore has lost its 2 leading MI reserves — Asdrúbal Cabrera to Birmingham in trade and Brian Roberts to Miami via waivers. Ripken and Machado can cover each other, but it gets thin quick.
  • Does the aging value convert? Cravath and McGann are challenging: the worst case is they don’t perform and, therefore, cannot be traded for value at the All-Star break. Cravath’s contract may prohibit that, regardless, but in the best of all worlds, Baltimore is able to move them on midseason, escaping both their cost and their age.
  • What is center field, exactly? This is actually a mirror of the ace question. To analysts the answer is obvious: it’s Paul Blair, a two-time Gold Glover whose bat, while poor, isn’t horrific. But the Black Sox remain restless, with Earl Averill stashed at AAA and Curt Flood brought over from Birmingham.

Roster Evaluation

Tier = the player’s 2001 positional grade (S best → F worst; color coded S A B C D F). Bold names carry a substantive WBL track; italic names are pure projection — a hope, not a grade — with no qualifying track to anchor them.

PosPlayers
CBlefary B · Haller
1BMcGann C · Murray
2BHuggins B
SSRipken Jr A · Pennington
3BMachado C
LFRobinson S
CFBlair D · Flood
RFHarper B · Singleton D
DHCravath B
SPMartínez D · Palmer D · Garvin · Cuellar · Tudor
RPGroom C (CL) · Olson D · Hampson · Montgomery · Marshall

A genuine S/A middle of the order in Robinson, Ripken, and Harper, a Gold-Glove spine down the center of the field, and some great supporting pieces. But the mound is clearly in need of significant improvement (health, of course, will help).

Behind the plate, Curt Blefary is under more pressure than it may appear — his glove is fading fast, but he stays behind the plate for his bat and through his reputation. Rumors are surfacing of him being spotted far too often in bars near the stadium after games — great for interacting with the fans, perhaps not so much for on-field performance.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerRF Gavy CravathRF Ron Northey
Batting EyeLF Bryce Harper3B Frank Ward
ContactCF Curt FloodCF Gene Clines
Running SpeedSP Ned Garvin3B Frank Ward; RF Billy Lush
Base StealingSP Ned GarvinLF Hub Collins; RF Jack McGeachey
IF DefenseSS Cal Ripken JrSS Mark Belanger
OF DefenseCF Paul BlairRF Bill Jacobson
StuffRP Jeff Montgomery; RP Gregg OlsonRP Steve Kline
ControlRP Buddy GroomSP Johnny Sain
VelocityRP Gregg OlsonRP Rafael Betancourt; RP Frank Francisco

Best In The Minors

RankAgePosName
1 (18)23RFRon Northey
2 (35)23LFHub Collins

Others: IF Bruce Bochte, P Steve Avery, IF Gunnar Henderson, IF Willie Montañez, IF Jose Altuve, P Bill Drake.

Graduated to the active roster since the ranked list: Eddie Murray (72), Emil Yde (78), Curt Flood (100).

A very different list than a year ago — because the system did its job. Cal Ripken Jr was the org’s No. 3 prospect a year ago, and Murray, Yde, and Flood all broke camp with the big club. Last year’s No. 1, second baseman Chino Smith, was inexplicably released, ending up with Chicago. What’s left is frankly underwhelming: Ron Northey (AAA), a corner bat, and Hub Collins (AAA) brought over from Detroit. Ninth-best system in the league at last count, mostly for the unranked talent, led by Henderson, Altuve, and Drake.

Superlatives

MostLeast
AgeDan McGann, 38Frank Ward, 17
HeightGene Conley, 6’8″Bobby Mathews, 5’5″
OPSFrank Robinson, 1.068George Gibson, 0.541 (A)
HRFrank Robinson, 48Frank Ward, 0 (AA)
SBFrank Ward, 50 (AA)
WAR (bat)Frank Robinson, 4.3Bill Jacobson, -1.2
WGio González, 13 (AAA)
SVFrank Francisco, 22 (AA)
ERAJoe Cascarella, 3.52 (AA)Gene Conley, 7.42
WAR (pit)Mark Baldwin, 4.7 (AAA)Johnny Sain, -0.2

Stats across all levels, 2001 season. 200 PA / 75 IP minimum. Non-WBL levels tagged in parentheses.

Year II Season Preview: Baltimore Black Sox

Expectations

Best team in the league adds the best free agent? Anything short of competing for a second consecutive championship would be a disappointment.

Best Case

The pitching is even better, supported by the return of the injured arms (most of all, Ned Garvin and Sean Marshall) and the offense runs even deeper with the addition of Gavvy Cravath.

Worst Case

The pitching reverts to mediocre and both Cravath and Dan McGann show their age while other key parts of the offense–Curt Blefary especially–regress.

Key Changes

  • Cravath, clearly.
  • Closer Joe Beggs may be converted into a starter, with Buddy Groom and John Wetteland taking over the end of games. At the end of Spring Training, he was still in the bullpen, but the move looms.

This is part of why they start the season as the favorites: the only changes have been a clear improvement in talent with Cravath and a few changes at the end of the roster (Tom Haller beating out Ramón Hernández behind Blefary, Miller Huggins beating out Brian Roberts as a reserve infielder, John Tudor making the team, stuff like that). The team has some flaws, but those same flaws existed last season, and that ended with a championship.

Trade Bait

Not a lot. There is a little excess in the OF and some spare SP, but the team also doesn’t have a lot of glaring need.

Roster Evaluation

POSEliteStrongSolidMehWeakUnknown
CBlefaryHaller
1BMcGann
2BGardnerHuggins
3BMachado
SSWallace
LF/
RF
Cravath
Robinson
Harper
Singleton
CFBlairJacobsen
SPByrd
Garvin
Martínez
JohnsonMussinaPalmer
Sain
EndBeggs
Groom
Wetteland
RPMarshallBessentOlsonTudor
New Addition | Injured

Seems about right: most of the roster is firmly towards the left side of the scale, with more unknowns with upside than actual weaknesses.

Talent Ratings

WBLMinors
Raw PowerOF Gavvy Cravath1B Eddie Murray
Batting EyeIF Miller HugginsIF Piggy Ward
Contact1B Dan McGannOF Steve Brodie
Running SpeedIF Miller HugginsOF Billy Hulen
Base Stealing2B Larry GardnerOF Dave Altizer
IF DefenseIF Miller Huggins3B Brooks Robinson
OF DefenseCF Paul BlairCF Sam West
StuffSP Ned GarvinSP Mark Baldwin
ControlSP Mike MussinaSP Ken Johnson
VelocityRP John WettelandRP Rafael Betancourt

Best In The Minors

RankAgePOSName
1 (12)222BChino Smith
2 (34)221BEddie Murray
3 (44)22SSCal Ripken, Jr
4 (52)19PJack Kramer
5 (67)20OFSteve Brodie
6 (78)163BPiggy Ward
7 (88)21PJoe Dobson
8 (115)191BWillie Montañez
9 (149)22OFBruce Bochte
10 (172)23PFrank Francisco
Others: None in top 200.

Chino Smith was drafted in the 8th round by Memphis, then inexplicably released. The Black Sox snapped him up, hoping he may be part of the answer to what comes after Wallace and Gardner in the middle infield. Murray and Ripken are expected in the WBL this season, although when Murray takes over for McGann remains unclear.

MostLeast
AgeP RA Dickey, 423B Piggy Ward, 16
HeightP Kameron Loe, 6’8″P Bobby Mathews, 5’5″
OPSOF Chick Stahl, .958 (AAA/WBL)C George Gibson, .597 (AAA/AA)
HROF Frank Robinson, 37 (WBL)OF Phil Bradley, 1 (WBL/AAA)
OF Burt Shotton, 1 (AAA/AA)
SBSS Cliff Pennington, 22 (—)Many with 0
WARC Curt Blefary, 4.7 (WBL)OF Gene Clines, -1.0 (—)
WBill Byrd, 14 (WBL)
Dennis Martínez, 14 (WBL)
Phil Ortega, 2 (AA)
SVCraig Stammen, 21 (—)
ERANed Garvin, 2.80 (WBL)Cristhian Martínez, 8.34 (—)
WARKen Johnson, 4.8 (—)RA Dickey, -1.7 (—)
Stats are across all levels. 200 PA / 75 IP min. Non WBL leagues indicated by —.

TWIWBL 56.3: Spring Training Notes – Baltimore Black Sox

Spring Training Questions

Not many: the twelve arms are–pending injury or spring training collapse–pretty much set, as is most of the lineup with only a single roster spot currently available, which would be filled by a reserve 2B.

First Cuts

This is hard. Other than Dick Ellsworth, all of the competitors for the final rosters spots impressed–even Frank Fancisco, who joined Ellsworth in being sent down, didn’t pitch badly.

The same can’t be said for the mainstays: Bob Miller and Buddy Groom both struggled, and pricey FA pickup Aaron Heilman was hit very hard. Baltimore’s assumption is that their core rotation–Bill Byrd, Dennis Martínez, Connie Johnson, and Mike Mussina–will all come around.

Offensively, some moves were more clear.

Nobody other than Curt Blefary has done anything behind the plate, leading to Brook Fordyce and Joe Holden being returned to the minors, as were Bruce Bochte, Paul Hines, Roy Smalley Jr., and Julian Javier. Both Billy Hulen and Paul Blair are hitless so far, but Blair is an established starter and a gold glove winner, so it’s Hulen who is sent to the minors, along with Ron Northey.

Neither Jim Bottomley nor Dave Altizer have shown much, but they were kept in camp for the time being.

It was assumed that 16 year old Piggy Ward was only in camp as a publicity stunt, but the young man has shown great control of the strike zone and enough defensive skill to stick around a bit longer.

Ramón Hernández, Manny Machado, Blair, and Larry Gardner have all struggled mightily, but aren’t yet in danger of any change to their status. Miller Huggins has also been poor, but retains his spot in camp due to the uncertainty at the reserve 2B position.

The focus for Baltimore will be on sorting out the pitching question: look for extended innings to be given to those guys over the next week. There are some questions to settle in the OF as well, as Steve Brodie‘s impressive start, combined with the struggles of Chick Stahl, Altizer, and Phil Bradley are muddying the waters for what may be the final roster spot.

Second Cuts

In the bullpen, Bob Miller–who started last year as the co-closer for the Black Sox but struggled since around the all-star break, and has been absolutely hammered in Spring Training–will start this season in the minors. Rafael Betancourt was also sent down, but other than that the pitching remains muddled: the starting quartet continues to struggle and the pretenders–Blake Hawksworth, Jack Kramer, Milt Pappas, and John Tudor–have combined to allow 1 run in in just over 26 innings.

Ramón Hernández and Phil Masi have each managed only a single hit, but Hernández’ WBL track record keeps him in camp. George Gibson was recalled to get some fill in at bats.

Jim Bottomley and Dave Altizer were sent down, loosening some of the crowd at 1B. Bottomley was given his release, allowing the veteran to try to catch on elsewhere. Teenage phenom Piggy Ward headed to minor league camp as well.

In the OF, veteran Chick Stahl‘s miserable spring earned him a ticket to AAA, while Steve Brodie and Phil Bradley continued to argue for a roster spot.

Third Cuts

C George Gibson, SS Mark Belanger, and Ps Jack Kramer and Mark Baldwin were the easy demotions. They were joined by Blake Hawksworth, whose wildness raised too many questions.

FA signing Aaron Heilman had been assumed to be a lock for the roster, but instead pitched poorly enough to be released, despite the economic commitment of his contract.

OF Steve Brodie was making a decent case to stick around, but a strained oblique will keep him out for about a month, sending him to AAA. He’s joined there by Brian Roberts, meaning Miller Huggins has beat out Roberts for the reserve 2B slot.

Joe Dobson and Milt Pappas have both pitched well in camp, but move to AAA for more development given their youth. Both Eddie Murray and Willie Montañez have hit well enough to stay in camp, and there is a bit of a logjam at SS and 3B: Bobby Wallace and Manny Machado are the presumed starters, leaving Brooks Robinson likely as the odd man out despite a strong Spring.

Phil Bradley finds himself in a similar position, likely the victim of a numbers game by the end of camp.

Last Cuts

Teenage phenom Willie Montañez‘ time in camp came to an end. OF Phil Bradley was going to need a stunning Spring to break camp with the Black Sox, and while he certainly tried, there was just no way he was breaking through the established OFers–plus Gavvy Cravath.

In a bit of a surprise, Tom Haller beat out incumbent Ramón Hernández to backup Curt Blefary with Hernández heading to AAA. That makes the Black Sox one of the first teams to reduce to only 2 Cs, partially out of a desire to get Blefary as much work behind the plate as possible before opening day.

Brooks Robinson had a nice Spring, but there just wasn’t any room for him on the left side of the infield behind incumbents Bobby Wallace and Larry Gardner, World Series hero Manny Machado, and the emerging talents of Cal Ripken, Jr. Robinson is off to AAA, with hopes that a good showing may make him desirable for a contender come the next trading period.

Being Whirled Champions should mean your roster is strong. It should also mean your choices the next Spring are rough, and here we are. Scott Williamson, Armando Benitez, John Tudor, and Kevin Tapani all pitched well this Spring. Tapani and Benitez were slightly worse, so they are the first two heading to AAA.

Benitez refused to be demoted, so he was waived, which puts a decent arm on the free market.

Eddie Murray was fantastic all Spring. But the Black Sox are going to continue with 37 year old Dan McGann for one more year, sending Murray to AAA to get regular AB.

The Cravath acquisition makes things complicated as the Black Sox have 6 quality bats in the OF (or 5 quality bats plus Paul Blair‘s glove). They also have a glut on the left side of the IF, where Cal Ripken, Jr is pushing both Bobby Wallace and Manny Machado at SS and 3B.

In the end, the hard decision came down to Ripken and Williamson being sent down, with Tudor being the surprise arm making the roster out of Spring Training.

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