{Each week, we pick one club at random and give them a bit more depth–how they thought the season would go, how it’s going, and what the future might hold.}
Chicago made the playoffs in 2000, lost 89 games last year, and spent most of the offseason acting like 2001 was “for the future.” Six weeks in, they are 21-16 and in first place in the Cum Posey Division, and there are whispers once more of accelerating the timeframe.
But if you look at the table below, the American Giants are doing it mostly with mirrors.
| CAG | WBL rank | 2001 rank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting average | .241 | 12th | 13th |
| On-base | .303 | 15th | 12th |
| Slugging | .418 | 13th | 19th |
| OPS | .722 | 13th | 18th |
| Runs scored | 187 | 3rd | 18th |
| Homeruns | 46 | 12th | 19th |
| ERA | 4.05 | 8th | 11th |
| WHIP | 1.25 | 9th | 11th |
| Strikeouts per 9 | 9.20 | 10th | 19th |
| Walks per 9 | 2.30 | 1st | 6th |
| Homeruns per 9 | 1.24 | 9th | 10th |
#How We Thought it Would Go
The season preview called 2002 “an evaluation year, shadowed by a franchise player who won’t be back until around June, and watched by a fanbase that has learned a hard lesson.” A patient, on-base lineup built around the Big Four (Eddie Collins, Joe Jackson, Dick Allen, and Frank Thomas) would make do until Thomas returned from his torn ACL.
In the meantime, the worry was the old one: whether the arms Chicago acquired would pull through. Add to that the concerns looming large by the Lake: whether Cristóbal Torriente was really as bad as his 2001, and what could be done about the black hole at shortstop.
#How It’s Going
187 runs scored and 147 allowed. But not a lot of clarity as to exactly how that’s happened.
Joe Jackson (297/355/406) has 2 homeruns after slugging .608 last year. Eddie Collins (216/295/241) has 3 extra-base hits in 131 plate appearances. Kevin Mitchell has a .552 OPS after hitting 23 homeruns and slugging over .700 in 2001.
Indeed, the only true star right now is Chino Smith, whose 290/331/718 line with 15 homeruns looks far more like Dick Allen than Allen’s 278/345/444.
So what’s happening? Travis Jackson, brought over to share SS, has seized the job, adding power and a reliable glove. And Jack Doyle, playing literally everywhere, has a .761 OPS. And, oh yeah, Torriente: 256/309/444 won’t win any awards, but it puts the 19-year-old back on the road to stardom, for sure.
We’ve discussed Torriente and Travis Jackson, so that leaves a single question:
Can Chicago finally find the right arms? So far, yes.
The staff ERA ranks 8th, up from 11th, and nobody in the WBL walks fewer batters. (The raw ERA, 4.05 against last year’s 5.44, is mostly the league settling down.) Waite Hoyt, brought over from the Black Yankees last summer to fix exactly this, was the AL Pitcher of the Month for April and is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 39.1 innings. Herb Pennock (3-2, 3.53) has made 8 starts, a year after a 9.30 ERA in 20 innings for Chicago. Joe Horlen has allowed 1 earned run in 26.2 innings. And A. J. Minter has 6 saves.
The exception is the ace. Ed Walsh is 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA, but with 40 strikeouts in 33.1 innings, it’s hard to believe that lasts.
Add to that impressive starts to the season from Alex Reyes, Jamie Moyer, and Ben Sheets, and the staff looks quite deep to boot. Pitching can break your heart, but it’s a start.
#The Crystal Ball
Nobody is quite sure if the glass is half full or half empty: the team is underperforming its expected record and the Big Hurt just started his rehab assignment. At the same time, this offense just doesn’t look like a significant offense at the WBL level.
Two things push in opposite directions.
The first is the runs. Scoring 3rd-most in the league on the 13th-best OPS and the 15th-best on-base percentage means Chicago has gotten more out of its hits than its hitting warrants. That kind of gap rarely lasts — hits that bunch together one month scatter the next.
The second is who’s coming back and the luck of the divisional draw. Thomas is 7-for-16 on a rehab assignment at Milwaukee, Hoyt will be back from the DL, and none of the other four clubs in the division is over .500. Still, San Francisco lurks, and there is a long way to go.
#Buy or Sell?
Trading doesn’t open until the All-Star break. But if Chicago is still in first come July, the checkbook will come out, and this franchise’s checkbook has a habit of pointing at the mound.
#Stories
Hurt So Good
Frank Thomas began a rehab assignment at Milwaukee this week and is 7-for-16 there. When he comes back, the at-bats at first base and DH have to come from somewhere, which probably means the end of the line in Chicago for Rule 5 pick Mickey Vernon (141/288/261).
Six Arms, Five Spots
With Hoyt on the DL, Horlen and Ben Sheets moved into the rotation and Mark Buehrle (3-1, 3.98) moved to the pen. Hoyt’s return reopens the question.
The ERA column has an easy answer: Sam Streeter (1-0, 7.50). The rest of his line argues back. Streeter has 40 strikeouts and 5 walks in 30 innings, but has been unable to keep the ball in the park. Buehrle is far less eye-popping, but he has allowed only 1 homerun.
Chicago’s long-running trouble has been picking the right arm. Here’s another chance.
Doyle, Everywhere
Jack Doyle, 22, opened the year as the third catcher. With Carlton Fisk (278/358/458) on the DL, he has caught — and also started at third, short, center and right — and hit (266/293/468) with 5 homeruns in 100 plate appearances. Fisk’s return takes the catching back. The bat will still need somewhere to stand, and Doyle can stand almost anywhere.
#Down on the Farm
The bats worth watching are mostly at Milwaukee, and mostly not young.
Freddie Lindstrom (3B, 21, AAA): 288/318/512 with 7 homeruns in 134 plate appearances at Milwaukee, and an AAA Player of the Week earlier this month. He hit (389/378/736) in a 74-PA cameo in Chicago last year. He’s blocked, essentially, by Dick Allen, but with Mitchell struggling, perhaps Allen goes to DH and Lindstrom gets another look?
Luke Appling (SS, 28, AAA): 337/437/477 in 105 plate appearances, with 16 walks against 10 strikeouts. Two looks in Chicago (241 plate appearances in 2000, 36 last year) didn’t stick. For a club that has had a hole at shortstop for three years running, worth keeping an eye on.
Mike Cameron (CF, 26, AAA): 275/362/435 in 82 plate appearances.
Grady Sizemore (CF, 26, A): 329/452/553 in 104 plate appearances at Kenosha. Loud, but he’s 26 in A-ball.
Hal Janvrin (SS, 20, AA): 297/379/419 in 88 plate appearances at Madison, a year after hitting .207 in A-ball.
On the mound:
Jacob deGrom (P, 25, AAA), the org’s top prospect: a 3.60 ERA in 30 innings at Madison earned a promotion, but the early AAA returns aren’t great (8.2 innings, 8 earned runs).
Wilbur Wood (P, 28, AAA): 6 rough innings in Chicago (13.50, 4 homeruns), then 12 scoreless innings at Milwaukee with 5 saves and no walks. Knuckleballers, amirite?
Ted Lyons (P, 24, AAA): 2.60 in 27.2 innings.
Zack Greinke (P, 20, AA): 4.12 in 19.2 innings at Madison after a promotion from Kenosha.
Tom Williams (P, 20, AAA): 50.1 innings at 20 years old, with a 5.36 ERA.
#One Number
15. Chino Smith‘s homeruns: 15 of his 38 hits, in 140 trips to the plate. He hit 7 in 167 for Chicago last year. He has also struck out 55 times and walked 6, so nobody said it would be pretty — but the most sought-after prospect in the WBL a year ago has blossomed.